Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 09 Feb 2015 10:06

The crack is widening! .Russia and Egypt agree upon non-USD for bilateral trade.Think what a diff. it would also make between India and Russia too. If the BRICS grouping and their close friends agree upon local currencies for their bilateral trade,the effect will attract even more smaller countries to do likewise. With Russia as a major producer of cheap energy,the possibilities appear v.promising.

Moscow & Cairo to drop USD, use national currencies in bilateral trade – Putin
http://rt.com/business/230447-russia-eg ... llar-drop/

Russia and Egypt might soon exclude the US dollar and use their national currencies in the settlement of accounts in bilateral trade, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview to Egyptian media ahead of his Monday visit to the country.

READ MORE: Iran moves away from US dollar in foreign trade

The issue of abandoning the dollar in trade is “being actively discussed,” Putin told Al-Ahram daily newspaper ahead of his two-day trip to Egypt. The Russian president was invited for a bilateral meeting by his Egyptian counterpart Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.

“This measure will open up new prospects for trade and investment cooperation between our countries, reduce its dependence on the current trends in the world markets,” Putin said.

“I should note that we already use national currencies for trade with a number of the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] states, and China. This practice proves its worth; we are ready to adopt it in our relations with Egypt as well. This issue is being discussed in substance by relevant agencies of both countries.”

Egypt is a long-time and trusted partner of Russia and the relationship between the two countries has been rapidly developing, the Russian president said.

“The volume of bilateral trade has increased significantly over the past years: In 2014, it increased by almost half compared to the previous year and amounted to more than $4.5 billion,” he said urging for this trend to be strengthened.

READ MORE: Big investor interest in Russia, despite pressure - president of world’s largest aluminium producer

He also praised the development of “mutually beneficial and effective” cooperation in the sector of agriculture. “Egypt is the major buyer of Russian wheat, Russia provides about 40 percent of grain consumed in the country; as for us, we import fruits and vegetables.”

Moscow imposed a full ban of EU, US, Australian, Canadian, and Norwegian food exports to Russia on August 7 for one year. Amid Russian sanctions, Egypt said in August that it was ready to boost agricultural deliveries to Russia by 30 percent.

During 2013, Egypt’s deliveries of agricultural products to Russia amounted $440 million, while during the first half of 2014, Cairo supplied $460 million, said the head of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, Nikolay Fedorov in August 2014.

Moscow and Cairo are also engaged in energy, automobile manufacturing and transport cooperation, developing the intergovernmental trade, economic and scientific-technical cooperation commission as well.

During Sisi’s last visit to Russia in August 2014, the two leaders agreed to look at a possibility of creating a free trade zone between Egypt and the countries of the Customs Union. Meeting in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi, the presidents also agreed upon the creation of a Russian industrial zone in Egypt, which will be part of a new Suez Canal project.

Egypt launched a Suez Canal development project worth $4 billion in August 2014. The project envisages the digging of a new canal parallel to the original built 145 years ago with the aim of speeding up traffic along the existing waterway and boosting the country’s economy.

READ MORE: Russia-China trading settlements in yuan increases 800%


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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 09 Feb 2015 10:13

Merkel --> US.

Cast you vote here. Will the Merkel/Hole-end effort lead to a sustainable solution, or just more time to arm Kiev?

1. Yes, Obama will sign off on it.
2. No, Kerry/McCain have a veto.
3. No, Putin is just waiting for warmer weather before making a full assault.
4. No, Ukraine will have solved its problems itself with US arms before this global chatup yeilds anything. Go Porky!

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 09 Feb 2015 10:17

http://rt.com/news/203795-kissinger-warns-cold-war/
Kissinger warns of West’s ‘fatal mistake’ that may lead to new Cold War

X-posted in the Geo. td. Dr.K warns the West of its "fatal mistake" made over the UKR crisis.

"Chocolate" army on the ropes? After suffering huge casualties esp. during the recent battles,the UKR's chocolate army is in "dire straits:,with the Choco soldier/pres hushing up actual casualties,which according to German intel is 10 times as much. No wonder the Germans/Merkel are so worried about the conflict,since a humiliating defeat for the UKR would trigger a weakening of nations wanting to join the EU and the EU having to pick up the pieces of a shattered UKR and the bill!

http://rt.com/news/230363-ukraine-real- ... elligence/
50,000 casualties in Ukraine? German intel calls Kiev’s 6k toll ‘not credible’
Published time: February 08, 2015 13:53

The German intelligence service estimates the real losses in the Ukrainian civil war at 50,000 dead (civilians and servicemen), which is nearly 10 times higher than reported by the Kiev authorities, German media report.

The information comes from a source in German intelligence, who spoke to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAZ) newspaper.

“Germany’s special services estimate the probable number of deceased Ukrainian servicemen and civilians at up to 50,000 people. This figure is about 10 times higher than official data. Official figures are clearly too low and not credible,” the newspaper reported on Sunday, citing its source.

Just one day before the report was published, the Ukrainian president gave completely different numbers to the international community.

“The death toll for the Ukrainian soldiers defending land from the aggressor is now 1,432. Thousands of people, 5,638, have been killed since April [2014] and every single day the number of victims among the civilians is rising,” Petro Poroshenko said in his address to the 51st Munich Security Conference on Saturday.

The Ukrainian army is reported to be suffering its heaviest losses since the beginning of the conflict last spring. According to the Donetsk militia representative, Eduard Basurin, the Ukrainian army has lost 1,569 servicemen in just three weeks since restarting the offensive.

READ MORE: Blitzkrieg turned mayhem: Hacktivists claim they reveal Ukrainian troops’ annihilation

The situation on the battlefield is dire for the Ukrainian forces. Some 8,000 Ukrainian troops are believed to be surrounded near the village of Debaltsevo in Donbass. Militia units cut off the only road linking this pocket of land to Kiev-controlled territory.

READ MORE: Thousands of Ukrainian troops thought to be trapped in Donbass

Taking into account these heavy losses, Ukraine is set to call up as many military age Ukrainians as possible. The national military draft for 2015 is expected to see 100,000 people joining the army in three stages throughout the year.

The recruitment effort, coming amid intensified fighting in eastern Ukraine, is being met by a distinct lack of enthusiasm by potential soldiers.

READ MORE: Potential conscripts evade draft, flee country amid escalation in E. Ukraine
Last edited by Philip on 09 Feb 2015 10:51, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 09 Feb 2015 10:50



Donetsk.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby vijaykarthik » 09 Feb 2015 11:32

Dont know if anyone linked it:

http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/t ... 79519.html

A thoughtful piece. The best that I have seen for a while. Pretty much sums up the difficulties both sides face. Accepting Federalization means end of Ukraine... and accepting thing as they stand / the West wants it means end of Putin.

I wonder why the so called leaders don't get thoughtful analyses such as these and then proceed to work towards a sensible outcome rather than go hammer and tongs without an idea about how game theory / real politik works and thereby end up leaving the place / situation even more perilous than earlier.

Af, Iraq, Kosovo, Libya, yemen, Syria etc etc. the show train moves on to E Europe.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby vijaykarthik » 09 Feb 2015 11:41

One of the sensible men in brookings:
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front ... ea-shapiro

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 09 Feb 2015 12:56

EU has gotten into a really bad monkey trap. They wont get out of this without scratches whatsoever.

But for the weak state of Russian economy, Putin holds all the cards. And its not going to be worse than the 90s still.

IMHO, this fighting will continue. West will stop funding Ukraine. The junta will collapse. Ukrane will disintegrate.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 09 Feb 2015 13:10

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150208/1017975304.html

The authorities of the Ukrainian armed group gave an order to mine the entire rail infrastructure of Debaltseve, according to deputy head of the self-proclaimed Dontesk People's Republic's (DPR) militia Eduard Basurin.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 09 Feb 2015 13:17

"Willy Wanker" and his choco factory,the UKR! Poor Poroshenko is looking more and more curious as a petty comedian than pres. with his wild claims about Russian soldiers leaving their passports behind in the UKR! Even if it is true that Russian troops are on the ground in the east,it is a realization by the WEest esp. the EU nations,that Russia will never abandon the east and its interests in the UKRas it is of such great historic and strategic magnitude to Russia,spanning centuries. If the US tomorrow arms the UKR,there is nothing to stop Putin from openly arming the DR militia and also sending in his "advisers' just as the US has sent its "advisers" to Kiev whose disastrous advice to Willy Wanker saw his troops mauled in the last round and have thousands of them surrounded and cut off,in "dire stratits".

http://rt.com/op-edge/230295-poroshenko ... ropaganda/

"Political comedy’: Poroshenko’s ‘Russian army evidence’ raises eyebrows

Bryan MacDonald is a Russia-based Irish journalist and media commentator who focuses on Russia and its hinterlands and international geo-politics.
Published time: February 08, 2015 00:30

President Poroshenko’s PR advisers are helping him turn speeches into a kind of performance art. Sadly for the Ukrainian leader, they are more Laurel and Hardy than Laurence Olivier.

READ MORE: Moscow demands copies of ‘Russian soldiers IDs shown in Munich

On Saturday, Poroshenko was again engaged in physical theatre, this time in Munich. Holding up Russian passports, he alleged that they belonged to Russian soldiers who had been found on Ukrainian soil. Citing “mountains of (Russian) lies and propaganda,” the Ukrainian President stood on a German stage and, well, lied.

Speaking of ‘propaganda,’ Yahoo news called the Russian (civilian) passports – which all Russians traveling abroad carry – 'military ID's' which is certainly a new one.

Russian soldiers cannot use their passports while on active service – they must hand them in. Everybody who has ever lived in Russia knows this. Indeed, even contract soldiers are forced to hand in theirs while on army business and, like the troops, they get a replacement military ID. This is why Sochi’s bars are crawling with off-duty Russian military – they can’t go abroad without their travel documents.

However, many Russian civilians who are army reservists (much like the US National Guard) would have both passports and military ID’s. Theoretically, Russian reservists – who are not employed by the Kremlin – could act as volunteers in Ukraine...in much the same way that mercenaries from as far-flung areas such as Spain, Poland, Croatia and Canada have been documented as serving in the Ukrainian civil war.

Facts and urban myths

A widely believed canard is that the Great Wall of China is the only man-made structure visible to the naked-eye from space. Indeed, it's fair to say that more think the fable true than are aware that it’s merely an urban legend.
In reality, the Great Wall is quite difficult to spot from above the stratosphere. It was constructed from nearby stone and largely blends in with its surroundings. Instead, it’s much easier to discern motorways and airports from space.

Spy satellites can be easily noticed in space these days due to the sheer number in orbit.

The US is known to operate Kennan-class devices which are reported to have an imaging resolution of around 6 inches. This means they can easily see a child’s bicycle parked in a driveway.

Two weeks ago, Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko told the Davos forum that Russia had 9,000 troops in his country. Media outlets from around the globe reported his statement, without caveats, including the BBC, Reuters and Mashable. In fact a Google search for “9,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine” produces 402,000 results.

Lack of evidence

The US was quick to amplify Poroshenko’s claims with Washington's UN Ambassador, Samantha Power, taking to Twitter to admonish Russia’s President Putin. NATO immediately claimed that the movement of “heavy military equipment” from Russian into Ukraine had recently increased in volume.

However, there’s a major problem here. There are no satellite photos showing this supposed incursion. The US government, NATO and President Poroshenko assert that 9,000 troops and a lot of large equipment (including tanks) have passed from Russia into Ukraine. Yet, they cannot produce one single image to support their thesis. They don’t even need to capture all 9,000 in one picture, just a dozen or so personnel and perhaps a tank would do.

These incredibly detailed satellite photos from Boko Haram’s atrocities in Nigeria were released last month. Their existence proves that the US has the technology to snap a large scale movement of men. However, they cannot produce a similar image from the Russia-Ukraine border area. Why is this? Perhaps because there are not 9,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine, there are no tanks crossing the frontier and President Poroshenko was lying?

Double standards

Meanwhile, we know that American soldiers will soon be deployed to Ukraine because the US freely admits it. Russia is under sanction for supporting separatist rebels in the Ukrainian civil war. Nevertheless, the Kremlin denies that its military is interfering in the conflict and Washington cannot produce a single photo to contradict them. However, the US is openly sending its own forces to aid Kiev and nobody seems to have a problem with the escalation. This is perverse logic.

Russia does acknowledge that volunteers, including servicemen, have gone to Ukraine to aid the rebels. Given that the insurgents are ethnic Russians who support Ukraine’s integration with Moscow, this is hardly a big surprise. It’s also the case that Russian citizens are fighting on the opposite site. Indeed, a Russian-citizen from Chechnya named Adam Osmayev is openly commanding a militia in Debaltsevo, which favors the Kiev regime.

Poroshenko not only dropped the 9,000 men fib at Davos, he also held up a panel from a bus which had been destroyed at Volnovakha a few days earlier. The horrific attack left 12 innocent passengers dead. The billionaire oligarch’s actions had echoes of Colin Powell holding a vial of what was alleged to be Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD) at the UN Security Council back in 2003.

Of course, following a brutal war and hundreds of thousands of deaths, we eventually discovered Iraq had no WMD. In 2012, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu waved a cartoon nuclear bomb around, also at the UN. One wonders are they all using the same PR company?

Petro Poroshenko obviously pulled the 9,000 troops fantasy out of the ether in Davos. This weekend he attempted another silly, headline grabbing, stunt in Munich. His actions make him look foolish. It's time for Willy Wonka to sack his PR team.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Deans » 09 Feb 2015 14:19

Philip, Your post pretty much up the status of Russian involvement in the war. My Russian friends were in splits watching Chocolate present his evidence. Apparently some of the Passports had recent Schengen visas - they were probably stolen from tourists. 3 of them were internal passports, actually issued in Donetsk. Even Ukraine's Chief of the General staff acknowledged that there is no evidence of the Russian
military in Ukraine.

Most Russians fighting in the Ukraine (my sources include 1 senior member of the Russian military) are genuinely volunteers, many with
combat experience. There is a unit of pro Russian Chechens fighting on the rebel side (and a group of Islamist Chechens fighting on
the Ukrainian side).

`Official' Support for the rebels is most likely provided by 2 of the Russian division HQ's, who are based in Southern Russia (just East of the fighting) who handle things like C-3, Intelligence (incl. drones), and possibly replenishing ammunition etc. They are likely to be some special forces and weapons experts inside Ukraine - just as Blackwater and other contractors have provided mercenaries embedded with Ukrainian units.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby vijaykarthik » 09 Feb 2015 14:50

Why are Islamist Chechens siding with Ukraine? For the obvious reasons of destabilizing Russia? So is that a KSA & Muslim angle to the fight? Is it just simple mercenary stuff or perhaps stinks a bit deeper?

I wonder.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Deans » 09 Feb 2015 15:07

vijaykarthik wrote:Why are Islamist Chechens siding with Ukraine? For the obvious reasons of destabilizing Russia? So is that a KSA & Muslim angle to the fight? Is it just simple mercenary stuff or perhaps stinks a bit deeper?

I wonder.


They are the lot who never stopped fighting the Russians, but went underground or abroad when Chechnya was stabilised.
The Chechen insurgency itself had morphed from one with local Chechens having (somewhat) genuine issues with Moscow over autonomy etc, in the 90's, to a `Jihad style' movement heavily influenced by Islamists.

Rather than fight in Afghanistan, Iraq etc, Ukraine presented a opportunity nearer home, where they could get to fight Russians.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 09 Feb 2015 15:17

The discourse in America about supplying arms to Ukraine is interesting. It will certainly lead to more destruction. That also means refugees will be moving into Europe and Russia. More likely Europe.

Now comparng this with the bombing of Gaddafi and the libyan refugees dying outside italy and indications that half a million refugees could pour into Europe, it sounds absolutely ridiculous that the Europeans would want something similar in the east.

No wonder, they are opposed to supplying arms to Ukbapzis.

But America has the policy - If there are refugees in Europe, mere baap ka kya jaata hai. 8)

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 09 Feb 2015 15:30

It hasnt been noticed here -- the latest donetsk kaboom is kiloton level booboo. They dont come much bigger without nukular bums.

Blowing up a chemical factory in the middle of the night to raise a 5kt mushroom ought not to sit well with anybody. Yet, there is not even a murmur of protest.

DNR/LNR ought to play they hands with whatever they got. Coming nights may raise many more kts and you dont need that many to level a city or two.

edit -- http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation- ... 93783.html , amazing, just wow level understatements.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby deejay » 09 Feb 2015 15:39

Shreeman wrote:It hasnt been noticed here -- the latest donetsk kaboom is kiloton level booboo. They dont come much bigger without nukular bums.

Blowing up a chemical factory in the middle of the night to raise a 5kt mushroom ought not to sit well with anybody. Yet, there is not even a murmur of protest.

DNR/LNR ought to play they hands with whatever they got. Coming nights may raise many more kts and you dont need that many to level a city or two.

edit -- http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation- ... 93783.html , amazing, just wow level understatements.


I thought so, but resisted posting as I thought I was imagining (not wanting to appear a fool).

Edited and
Added later: here is a news item saying :http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1243441-did-a-tactical-nuke-just-go-off-in-ukraine-big-explosion-rocks-donetsk/

While many details remain unclear, preliminary reports say it was a an artillery attack on a weapons depot owned by the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic. According to Ukrainian news site TSN.ua, right-wing politician Dmitry Yarosh said the blast killed about “200 terrorists,” destroyed 20 Grad rockets, and blew up trucks filled with ammunition.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Yagnasri » 09 Feb 2015 16:05

Chechen Jihadist forces like other Jihadist forces elsewhere has great admiration for Nazis. The Chaco solider and his regime has Nazi background for all to see. So it can not be surprised if both fight together. US, NeoNazis plus Jihadi forces. What a combination.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 09 Feb 2015 16:19

deejay wrote:
Shreeman wrote:It hasnt been noticed here -- the latest donetsk kaboom is kiloton level booboo. They dont come much bigger without nukular bums.

Blowing up a chemical factory in the middle of the night to raise a 5kt mushroom ought not to sit well with anybody. Yet, there is not even a murmur of protest.

DNR/LNR ought to play they hands with whatever they got. Coming nights may raise many more kts and you dont need that many to level a city or two.

edit -- http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation- ... 93783.html , amazing, just wow level understatements.


I thought so, but resisted posting as I thought I was imagining (not wanting to appear a fool).

Edited and
Added later: here is a news item saying :http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1243441-did-a-tactical-nuke-just-go-off-in-ukraine-big-explosion-rocks-donetsk/

While many details remain unclear, preliminary reports say it was a an artillery attack on a weapons depot owned by the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic. According to Ukrainian news site TSN.ua, right-wing politician Dmitry Yarosh said the blast killed about “200 terrorists,” destroyed 20 Grad rockets, and blew up trucks filled with ammunition.


Deejay,

No grad rockets would expode this way (instantaneously), even if stockpiled on top of each other. This is pure propaganda, even if one were to assume a stock of grad+resupply of this many vehicles in one place which is itself unlikely. Details/pictures should emerge in daylight.

Chemical/fertilizer tanks or a ballistic missile are the only plausible explanations.

In other videos of the event, there is back of the envelop level information -- shockwave arriving seconds later and breaking the windows. This is not less than 1kt, could be >5kt. No grad rockets can produce this sync. effect.

Ukraine has some short range BMs, they appear to be using them besides the smerches.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 09 Feb 2015 16:29

Dmitry Yarosh said the blast killed about “200 terrorists,” destroyed 20 Grad rockets, and blew up trucks filled with ammunition.


We shall have to wait for DPR`s story. Yarosh has as much credibility as New York Times.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby deejay » 09 Feb 2015 17:02

^^^ Shreeman ji, In the video posted by you one can here multiple explosions about 10 secs after the light of the explosion is visible. Then there is a single big explosion. Looks like an ammo dump or some Chemical tank blew up.

Whatever it was, it was huge. The other video clearly has the window panes breaking and the person recording probably fell though he was inside his house.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby ldev » 09 Feb 2015 17:07

Article written in The Telegraph by Tony Brenton, Britain's ambassador to Russia 2004-2008.

I've looked into Vladimir Putin's eyes - and he won't back down

That phase may now be ending. The Russians have rearmed the East Ukrainian rebels – who are on something of a military roll. This has inclined Washington to supply Ukraine’s government in Kiev with lethal weaponry. The prospect this brings of a much more direct clash between Russia and the West has alarmed Angela Merkel and François Hollande enough to send them hurrying off to Moscow on what may well prove a last-ditch peace mission.
There they will meet Vladimir Putin. A huge amount now turns on who Mr Putin is, and what he is after. I met him regularly when I was British Ambassador in Moscow between 2004 and 2008, and came away with some quite clear impressions of the challenge they face.


After a period working in St Petersburg following the fall of Communism (where I first met him as a young official with a reputation for getting things done) his subsequent rise was stratospheric. It depended on two attributes which I saw in him in abundance – loyalty and ruthlessness.


Putin as president continues to display those same qualities which got him to the top. In a culture that prizes emotional excess, I have never seen him let himself go. He is always impeccably turned out, exudes a sort of aggressive fitness which cows the flabby middle-aged men around him, and is in impressive command of the facts of whatever he is discussing. I have seen him correct British ministers on the details of the UK gas market and stun British intelligence officials by responding to an exposition of our anti-terrorist policies with the blunt statement: “We kill them.” His annual press conferences are tours de force – three hours without notes taking questions from all-comers on all subjects. Our politicians would never attempt it.


But though blunt, he can be skilfully and self-servingly opaque. He has spent the past 11 months denying in the face of the strongest evidence that Russia has any troops in Ukraine. In a smaller way, I know that in 2008, following a televised burst of rage at an oligarch for closing a factory, the two congratulated each other on their performance after the camera was turned off.


Putin is centrally driven by his determination to restore Russia as a power to be taken seriously. He deeply mistrusts the West. But he is not a risk taker. His pride in Russia was apparent every time I saw him, from lavish Kremlin receptions to celebrate Russia’s artistic elite to his cold response at a Downing Street meeting to hearing that a gas project was going to cost Russia billions more than anticipated – eventually followed by Russian expropriation of the company concerned. His caution has been much questioned since the annexation of Crimea last year – which took virtually all observers (including me) by surprise.But the Putin I knew was a man who judged situations very carefully, was very conscious of Russia’s relative weakness vis-à-vis the West, and only took action if he was confident he had a decisive advantage, or felt himself unbearably provoked – as in Georgia in 2008. There is simply no evidence for the Western hysteria about a revanchist Russia. The Putin I know is not going to take on Nato.
None the less, getting out of the mess in Ukraine is not going to be easy. Putin has nailed his flag to the mast of protecting the East Ukrainian dissidents. Nor will he let Ukraine abandon its neutral status and join Nato. He is not going to let economic pressures, or even the supply of arms, force him to accept a deal which damages what he views as vital Russian interests. He knows the Russian elite, and people, are firmly behind him on all this.
On the other hand, he certainly doesn’t want war. And he doesn’t want to add broken-backed East Ukraine, still less other parts of the former Soviet Union, to Russia’s already substantial economic woes. Merkel and Hollande face a hideously difficult job. And Vladimir Putin is keen that it should be so. But the last thing he wants is to make it impossible.


I am sure that Merkel is galvanized by the prospect of a proxy war between the US and Russia a few hours east of the German border, after all Berlin to Kiev is the same distance as New York is from Chicago.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 09 Feb 2015 20:54

Merkel miscalculated. She never expected that it will come to a violent conflict.

It was all nice till there was the maidan coup. Ukraine would sign the EU association agreement and that would be that. But with this war, Europe has to pay billions and the end result is unpredictable.


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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Tuvaluan » 09 Feb 2015 21:33

So this is how US propaganda seems to work going by this recent bombing: (1) Bomb chemical factory with excess firepower and keep it on the down low -- just pretend it was a vacuum bulb explosion (2) wait for retaliation from the victims of the attacks (3) start playing up actions in step 2 as the ultimate violation of human rights, apple pie, motherhood, freedom and democracy. The US tool comes up and does a Colin-powell-yellow-cake dance to "prove" involvement of Russia as an excuse to escalate the war, and everyone pretends this is all quite ok.

Clearly peace is not in the top 10 goals of the mofos in the US SD, given the active provocation to start wars all over the place...wars that don't even seem to help the US tactically or strategically anywhere. Merkel and EU are being pushed by the US to fight a war in their neighbourhood kicking and screaming,
and if the US's goal is to push Russia and Putin away from each other, it may end up doing exactly the opposite if it continues its current warmongering.

Superb strategery from the people who have fought war after war in the recent decades, creating newer and more vicious groups like IS, "Al Qaeda" etc. that run riot slaughtering innocent people everywhere...all in the name of freedom and democracy. Animal Farm reads like a fairy tale compared to this kind of duplicitous double talk pushing evil of the worst sort in the name of "freedom".
Last edited by Tuvaluan on 09 Feb 2015 22:01, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Mort Walker » 09 Feb 2015 21:41

'Russia's growing threat': After Ukraine, fears grow that Baltic states could be Vladimir Putin's next targets

In the US, there are domestic politics between the two parties where neither wants to be seen weak on Russia. IMO, the US will arm Uk government forces to wrest it away from Russia. Combined with low oil prices and the push to feed the US military industrial complex, the probability of the "defeating" Russia is good. The EU will pay a heavy economic price and it will ensure that neither the EU or Russia prove to be an economic or strategic threat to the US in the near 30-50 years. That leaves the only challenges to US global dominance in Asia.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Tuvaluan » 09 Feb 2015 22:04

EU and Russia can be an economic threat to the US if they start to ignore the US and patch up and resolve their differences -- it may take an election cycle or two before the citizens of EU force this change of direction. No one is suicidal to fight wars that do not help their self interests, US stooge or not.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Mort Walker » 09 Feb 2015 22:11

The danger here is that this looks more like WWI, where comparable European powers got in to a war that no one really wanted.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 09 Feb 2015 22:40

No one is suicidal to fight wars that do not help their self interests, US stooge or not.


You only need to see as far as the Ukbapzis.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 09 Feb 2015 23:25

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-sanctions- ... 46609.html

Russia sanctions have cost EU 21 bn euros: Spain

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Tuvaluan » 09 Feb 2015 23:41

RSoami wrote:
No one is suicidal to fight wars that do not help their self interests, US stooge or not.


You only need to see as far as the Ukbapzis.



But the UkBapzis were installed on the throne after a "color revolution" that negated a valid election, so that does not really count since this Kyev dictatorial regime is not an elected one.

I was mainly referring to EU democracies like Germany where there is a clearly no public support for a war with Russia, even if the dithering leadership was stupid enough to ignore public opinion as it escalated a war with Russia.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 09 Feb 2015 23:57

self delete

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 10 Feb 2015 04:15

The ukraine situation is surreal. Russia must be internally totally rotten for this to come to pass.

The big explosion was a single huge event, video evidence shows no secondaries. The noises in the explosion are regular fighting noises ocurring at various distances. The hole is not a smerch hole. What else if on offer?

The talks will lead to inconclusive situation, and debaltsevo will really heat up during this time. The US weapons are basically enroute/already there along the lines of millions of 152mm rounds to lebanon.

Why? Isnt the situation south from ukraine already not bad enough? Has a major US stakeholder spent their personal fortune on cornering ukraine? From a strategic perspective this makes zero sense.

And if it could happen in Ukraine/Russia, china/india are not immune. China via NoKo, and India via, well, everybody. China wont be picked on ahead of India.

edit -- the media is showing civilians in east being shelled by ukraine, then in the same sentence blames putin for it. its getting really hard to follow the coverage.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby KLNMurthy » 10 Feb 2015 06:08

Shreeman wrote:
...

And if it could happen in Ukraine/Russia, china/india are not immune. China via NoKo, and India via, well, everybody. China wont be picked on ahead of India.

...

What's an equivalent scenario for India (cast as Russia)? Kashmir? Bhutan? Sikkim? We already have most /all of it in our clutches and have little interest in getting the rest. Sri Lanka? Nepal? We have enough levers before they decide to become part of Chinese Empire. Maldives? They are already pakis and we are living with it. So, not sure what your scenario is.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 10 Feb 2015 06:27

KLNMurthy wrote:
Shreeman wrote:
...

And if it could happen in Ukraine/Russia, china/india are not immune. China via NoKo, and India via, well, everybody. China wont be picked on ahead of India.

...

What's an equivalent scenario for India (cast as Russia)? Kashmir? Bhutan? Sikkim? We already have most /all of it in our clutches and have little interest in getting the rest. Sri Lanka? Nepal? We have enough levers before they decide to become part of Chinese Empire. Maldives? They are already pakis and we are living with it. So, not sure what your scenario is.


It cant be Delhi. Then, you have two-three years time before Russia becomes syria-stable. Follow the money over coming elections and see where the rhetoric grows into "autonomy", freedom of xyz, end of corruption, representation, stop persecution etc. There is an equal chance it will be internal. Outside, anything from Myanmar to Pakistan is in play. Doesnt take much, just one lebanon sized shipment.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby vijaykarthik » 10 Feb 2015 07:27

Looks like Merkel has convinced Obama in the near term to get more sanctions out. So, its going to be more sanctions and no ammunitions for now.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 10 Feb 2015 07:32

^^^ Why not both? Thr official announcement of the "aid" might get delayed. Otherwise, Obama's tone is the most war like that I have heard in 8 years. Nothing is put on hold due to this meeting or the wednesday event. New sanctions are due the 16th.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby UlanBatori » 10 Feb 2015 07:35

Bridges on sale if one is to believe that ammo is not already on the way. Manufacturers don't make $$$$ unless the ammo can be expended quickly. Besides, if they wait another week or 2, things may be very different on the ground.

Learned a new word today: rasputitsa.

Also, looks like UkBapZi force escaped in the school buses wearing burkhas

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby vijaykarthik » 10 Feb 2015 07:56

@Shreeman: I am not sure of this yet - no mainstream media confirmation but it does look like Merkel and Hollande are just not pleased with US plan to ship arms. And with EU convenor and the rag tag French govt in tow, surely they will have pulled some levers on the US is my thought.

However, covert supplies might be there? Who knows. that's always possible with NATO and CIA.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Deans » 10 Feb 2015 08:12

Shreeman wrote:It hasnt been noticed here -- the latest donetsk kaboom is kiloton level booboo. They dont come much bigger without nukular bums.

Blowing up a chemical factory in the middle of the night to raise a 5kt mushroom ought not to sit well with anybody. Yet, there is not even a murmur of protest.

DNR/LNR ought to play they hands with whatever they got. Coming nights may raise many more kts and you dont need that many to level a city or two.


Its the biggest Chemical factory in Europe, without the safeguards you might see in a Western plant - which can potentually lead to another Bhopal. It has been targetted before by the Ukies (who first claimed that the explosion was a rebel Ammo dunp being hit).
The video of the explosion posted earlier, led to fires that were contained during the night.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Tuvaluan » 10 Feb 2015 08:13

If Merkel/EU/USA are pressing so hard, they must really think Russiais about to crumble under more pressure...but that does not sound right. What is this awesome strategy that everyone from Zbig to BO to Kerrey are being so smug about? :?: Must be something that Merkel buys if she is willing to back more sanctions against Russia and more weapons in Ukraine.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Deans » 10 Feb 2015 08:39

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/kot_ivanov/71733898/39778/39778_original.jpg

Latest Map (7-8th Feb)

- The Debaltsevo pocket is closed and rebels are now trying to reduce it. I posted a video earlier of the artillery barrages
of the rebels, once civilians had been evacuated.
The Ukies are still attempting counterattacks to relieve the pocket. However, the mistake they are repeatedly making
(this is as per Russian analysts) is to attack AFTER the pocket is closed. In this case, they have to attack along a single
road and uphill. Rebel artillery chewed up a relief attempt earlier today and a Ukie officer was quoted to have said `Only
a politician would order an attack in this situation'.

- Rebels are making some gains to the North West of the pocket. (The striped Pink area). They have reportedly taken the
town of Logvinovo (Логвиново) after the Ukrainian attack of 4th Feb failed. Combined with the rebel advance South of
the pocket - the Red arrow moving West from Gorlovka, (Горловка) are threatening the city of Artemovsk, (Артeмовск)
with a pincer.

- Some rebel gains North of the port city of Mariupol.

- Donetsk under artillery attack (blue crossed circles). However, the rebels have advanced just south of the city, which could
unhinge the whole Ukrainian position West of Donetsk.


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