Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby SwamyG » 28 Jan 2018 05:29

Even Al Gore gave a thumbs up sign (metaphorically) for bringing "Climate Change". Modi uses key words to attract and align global economies and leaders. Chanakya would be proud.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby chanakyaa » 28 Jan 2018 07:43

WEF: Liu He is a Chinese economist and politician, and a current member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China. China is set to name Liu He, who advises President Xi Jinping, as a vice premier overseeing the economy and financial sector.


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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 28 Jan 2018 08:13

Thanks guys for all the media about Davos.

Now for some tight analysis. Let's write a short para of each country's perspective.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Falijee » 04 Feb 2018 04:54

A New Way Of Looking At China. Interesting Article By Subramanian Swami

Natural partners in the Asian century
Subramanian Swamy

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby chanakyaa » 11 Feb 2018 04:42


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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby chanakyaa » 19 Feb 2018 08:30

India's biggest bourse keen to buy stake in Dhaka stock exchange
India’s biggest stock exchange is keen to buy a 25 per cent stake in Dhaka Stock Exchange, rivaling an offer from a Chinese bourse.

“We are well positioned to help grow the Bangladesh market and the exchange, given our experience and track record,” Vikram Limaye, chief executive officer of the National Stock Exchange, said in a phone interview on Thursday.

The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has offered 22 taka per share to buy 25 per cent of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, Rakibur Rahman, a director at the DSE, said by phone last week. That’s higher than the NSE’s 15 taka per share bid. The bourse will hold a meeting on Feb. 19 to finalize its pick before sending the proposal to the nation’s securities regulator.

“The process is still on and we’re hopeful,” Limaye said. “ndia and Bangladesh have a strong relationship. We hope that it will help ..

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 20 Feb 2018 04:45

A friend of mine has said in Northern California real estate, the Chinese buyers say just offer $50K over the minimum asking price and just report back if bought.

Looks like China is offering ~47 % more than the NSE bid.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Prem » 22 Feb 2018 02:33


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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby chanakyaa » 22 Feb 2018 07:16

March of China's new foot soldiers, it Tourists

China, Cambodia, and Casinos


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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Pulikeshi » 22 Feb 2018 11:25

The future of great power politics (in the Trump era):



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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby panduranghari » 28 Feb 2018 17:06

chanakyaa wrote:Following links have access to additional WEF videos.
Strategic Geography: Connected Corridors
- Pakistan, CPEC, China, connectivity


The Chinese envoy and Pakistani telecommunications minister could not answer the doubts raised about why infrastructure in Africa built by China has not lead to more local involvement and increased employment, improved education opportunities and why earlier projects started over 25 years back by other agencies ( which were milked by corrupt regimes) won't be any different from the outcome of BRI.
Last edited by panduranghari on 01 Mar 2018 01:49, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Bart S » 28 Feb 2018 18:50

Pretty generic stuff, nevertheless a good quick read, from George Friedman:

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-middle-of-an-era/

The Middle of an Era

Only now is the full power of what started in 2008 being felt.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 02 Mar 2018 22:51

Bart S wrote:Pretty generic stuff, nevertheless a good quick read, from George Friedman:

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-middle-of-an-era/

The Middle of an Era

Only now is the full power of what started in 2008 being felt.



I subscribed and got his e-book.
Interesting way of looking at 20 year windows.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby panduranghari » 04 Mar 2018 00:25

ramana wrote:Amit and/orSomnath

Please look at Economic war scenarios between China and US and EU as 3 player game.



Ramana Saar,

I recommend you a three body problem.

Q: What is the three body problem?

Physicist: The three body problem is to exactly solve for the motions of three (or more) bodies interacting through an inverse square force (which includes gravitational and electrical attraction).

The problem with the 3-body problem is that it can’t be done, except in a very small set of frankly goofy scenarios (like identical planets following identical orbits).

The unsolvableness of the 3-body problem, rather than being an embarrassing hole in physics, an obvious but unsolved problem, is actually the norm. In physics, the number of not-baby-simple, exactly solvable problems can be counted on the fingers of one hand (that’s missing some fingers), and that includes the 2-body problem.

The dynamics of one body is pretty straight forward, in as much as it travels straight forward.

The dynamics of two bodies, while not trivial, can be reduced by pretending that one body is sitting still, and then restricting all of your attention to the other body. Using that technique, you find (or, at least, Newton found) that the motion of a body under gravity is an ellipse. The same idea can be applied to the quantum mechanics of electrons and protons to find the exact structure of the electron shells in hydrogen (1 proton + 1 electron = 2 bodies). In that case you’re not talking about actual orbits, but the idea is similar.

But, for three bodies, there doesn’t seem to be a fancy trick for finding solutions. As a result, the exact behavior of 3 or more bodies can’t be written down. The exact energy levels and orbital shell shapes in anything other than hydrogen is impossible to find. Even deuterium (hydrogen with one extra neutron)! Can’t be done.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 04 Mar 2018 01:14

This exactly how Lord Shiva solved the Tripurasuras problem and got the name Tripurantaka.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Neshant » 04 Mar 2018 18:16

The irony of China penetrating the Indian Ocean Region is that the more they set up shop in the IOR, the more important India becomes to western countries & Japan in ensuring their interests in the IOR.

China won't ever be able to displace us in the Indian ocean because we are geographically in the middle of it.

But they can displace western powers & Japan who are far from it but depend heavily on free flow of maritime trade through it.

India is under no obligation at present to help any 3rd country secure their maritime rights of free passage through the IOR because it may not be worth fighting China over it.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby pankajs » 06 Mar 2018 07:49

https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/ ... well-.html
Record oil output from US, Brazil, Canada and Norway to keep global markets well supplied

Over the next three years, gains from the United States alone will cover 80% of the world’s demand growth, with Canada, Brazil and Norway – all IEA family members – able to cover the rest, according to Oil 2018, the IEA’s five-year market analysis and forecast.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby panduranghari » 06 Mar 2018 20:35

Pankajs ji,

Thats nonsense to say US will cover 80% of global demand.

Only 12% of tight oil(oil from fracking) is ready for use by the refineries. Most refineries are designed to process heavier crude like from Saudi. So you may ask what about the 88%? Well that crude needs different refining process. They can't be blended with Saudi or Venezuelan or Canadian crude. The 88% tight oil has no distillates which are used for aviation fuel or diesel or plastic manufacture either.

All shale except Permian is running dry. This is a fact.

Keystone XL pipeline which is supposed to bring Canadian oil to Cushing, Oklahoma is not fully running so at the moment US can't really export as much crude, but then can and they will when this pipeline is complete.
Later addition;

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shale-trai ... 1520257595

"The oil market is in a state of misdirection now. Someone needs to speak out." Former EOG CEO Mark Papa believes core areas of Bakken & Eagle Ford have been drilled & Permian has operational constraints like lack of frack sand & investor demand for ROI.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 06 Mar 2018 23:39

I listened to Mark Pappa on Bloomberg. He thinks 850k barrel vs 1.3 M barrel forecast from US due to constraints. Expects oil price to be around $70 by November from around $65 now.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 08 Mar 2018 05:26


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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby chanakyaa » 08 Mar 2018 07:59

Looks like Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has been resuscitated back to life (without uncle), potentially with new member who have nothing to do with the Pacific. Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and even the UK are all regarded as possible additions.

(FT) Pacific countries seek new members for regional trade deal

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby pankajs » 08 Mar 2018 16:15

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/U ... emand.html
U.S. Oil Export Boom Boosts Pipeline Demand

The U.S. could add around 4 million barrels per day (mb/d) of additional supply in the coming years, and most of it will be shipped abroad, turning the U.S. into a major oil exporter.

Most of the new supply will come in the form of light sweet and ultra-light oil. But because refineries along the Gulf Coast are largely equipped to handle medium and heavy crude, the new production probably won’t find a home inside the U.S.

A new study from Wood Mackenzie predicts that only about 900,000 bpd of the additional supply will be taken up in the domestic market, leaving more than 3 mb/d for export should those aggressive production forecasts play out. Meanwhile, Bernstein Research was even more definitive, arguing that essentially all new additional supply will be shipped abroad.

Ultimately, the IEA forecasts that U.S. crude export capacity could hit nearly 5 mb/d by 2023.

<snip>

As the FT notes, a flurry of other projects are also in the works. New pipelines – the BridgeTex, Permian Express and Cactus pipelines – have begun ferrying Permian oil to the coast of Texas in the past two years, erasing what had once been a steep discount for Midland crude relative to WTI due to the infrastructure bottlenecks.

But, with output in the Permian continuing to rise at a rapid clip, more capacity is needed. For instance, the Cactus pipeline network is set to add two more lines, expanding capacity from 390,000 bpd to 575,000 bpd. The lines run from the Permian to Corpus Christi, and the expansion is expected to come online by the end of next year.

Overall, an estimated 2.1 mb/d of midstream capacity is under construction, according to RBN Energy, and cited by the FT.

IEA, Wood Mackenzie, Bernstein Research and FT are all respected sources in their respective fields.

Light oil or Ultra light oil has a market so someone knows what to do with it. While it might not displace normal crude oil usage across the board, its impact will be felt where it can substitute the normal crude oil.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby panduranghari » 08 Mar 2018 19:27

I do not disagree the premise that they are respected firms who are undertaking research. I also do not disagree with the statement - While it might not displace normal crude oil usage across the board, its impact will be felt where it can substitute the normal crude oil.

I am making these claims because I follow a petroleum geologist called Arthur Berman (who posts on twitter and on his blog) has made these claims. His forecasting track record is second to none and as an independent analyst he looses more if his forecasts turn out to be dud.

In the future mankind will be living on the moon too but here and now, the oil industry is dominated by dinosaurs.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ShauryaT » 15 Mar 2018 08:39

Hope this is the right thread for this.
Eye Candy and a Macho President, Jingos should like this.


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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby CalvinH » 15 Mar 2018 15:31

panduranghari wrote:Pankajs ji,

Thats nonsense to say US will cover 80% of global demand.



I think it was 80% of growth in the global demand

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Falijee » 15 Mar 2018 20:45

Hope Right Thread !

POTUS Welcomes MBS Amongst Rumours Of Palace Intrigue In Riyadh !

Saudi crown prince is hiding his mother to prevent her from opposing his power grab: NBC News

Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman has hidden his mother from seeing his father, King Salman, as the crown prince has worked to consolidate his power, sources told NBC News.The young prince, a key ally of President Donald Trump and son-in-law Jared Kushner, has devised a number of explanations to explain his mother's mysterious absence for more than two years, including that she's out of the country's for medical treatment. Raheel doing his "dirty work" :mrgreen:
The White House announced this week that the president will meet with the crown prince on Tuesday. It said Trump "looks forward to discussing ways to strengthen ties between the United States and Saudi Arabia and to advance our common security and economic priorities."U.S. officials, though, told NBC they believe that Prince Mohammed moved against his mother to keep her away from the royal family, worried that she would oppose his plans to seize power and sway the king into preventing it. Various factions in the House Of Saud will "spring into action" once King Salman is "gone" .!
The 31-year-old prince, known as MBS, drew the spotlight last June after displacing his cousin to become the crown prince of the oil-rich kingdom. Since then, MBS has arrested hundreds of rival businessmen and family members with an ostensible goal of reducing corruption. Saudi Arabia's Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, a prominent member of the country's royal family and one of the country's wealthiest investors, was swept up in the widespread anti-corruption campaign in November. He has "enlisted" ex COAS Raheel Sharif to "guide" him in the "image makeover" that is going on nowadays !

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby chanakyaa » 24 Mar 2018 22:37

Starting March 26, much hyped Chinese oil futures contracts denominated in Yuan will start trading on Shanghai International Energy Exchange in Shanghai Free Trade Zone. Good step for China, but it is not going to change any international equations in the near term. Looks like the main interest is coming from local Chinese refiners. Contracts will not be as liquid as dollar denominated contracts elsewhere, but you gotta start somewhere, right.

China Seeks Greater Role in Global Oil Trade

China waives income tax for foreign investors trading yuan crude futures (for 3 years)

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 03 Apr 2018 21:42

Putin is visiting Turkey and is there to sign an agreement for the first nuke power plant in Turkey.
60 years of NATO ally and no nuke power technology.
After a day, Iran is supposed to join for a trilateral with subject of Syria.
Turkey is supposed to vacate non Kurdish areas

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Austin » 04 Apr 2018 16:44

The US and part of Europe are not ready for a multipolar world and still resort to coercion and dictatorship - the head of the Russian Intelligence SVR
04/04/2018 10:19:25

*** Instead of looking to the future, the West clings to the past

Moscow. April, 4. INTERFAX-AVN - The United States and part of Europe do not want to come to terms with the weakening of their influence, resort to dictate, said Sergei Naryshkin, Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation.

"New influential centers of power, such as India, Brazil, South Africa and, of course, China and Russia, are emerging and strengthening in the international arena, but Western powers are not happy with such changes." In fact, the United States and part of Europe were not ready for such changes ", S.Naryshkin said at the Seventh Moscow International Security Conference on Wednesday.


According to him, "they can not and do not want to face the truth, to accept the inevitable weakening of their own once-undivided influence, they are still trying to build relations with other states on old, rooted in the colonial system, principles such as coercion and dictate ".

"Instead of looking to the future, the West is clinging to the past and trying to build on the already obsolete tools of the Cold War period, primarily the block system, institutions such as NATO, the EU, which in the past were indeed effective with point of view of promoting Western interests, "S. Naryshkin said.

"Turning, in fact, into retrograde," stressed the head of the SVR, "and not being able to put things in order at home, the United States and its allies are trying to stop or at least slow down the objective transformation of the global world order."


http://militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=477878

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Austin » 04 Apr 2018 17:10

Address by Mrs Nirmala Sitharaman, Defence Minister of India at the Seventh Moscow Conference on International Security (MCIS) (04/04/2018) on “Global Security in a Polycentric World”
Mr. Moderator,

Your Excellencies Defence Ministers and other dignitaries,

Distinguished delegates.

It is a pleasure to address the Seventh Moscow Conference on International Security. I thank Defence Minister General Sergei Shoigu for the invitation.

At the outset, I compliment the organisers of the conference for the excellent arrangements made. The programme of the Conference covers several areas of contemporary relevance.

The theme of this session addresses a key aspect of the current global defence, security and strategic scenario. It is appropriate that we are discussing this subject in Moscow. Russia has re-established its role and influence in global strategic and defence matters.

Russia has also established new partnerships, even as it continues to build ties with older friends and allies. At the same time, relations between Russia and some countries are now beset with serious differences. This has created a complex dynamic. Either way, the solution to the key challenges we face today require Russia’s active involvement.

I welcome the statements by Defence Minister Shoigu and other Russian leaders in the opening session stressing Russia’s intent to explore all possible avenues for dialogue and a constructive approach to resolving differences.

For us in India, Russia has been and remains a long-standing friend and partner with whom we share a Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership. India and Russia have just concluded a year of commemorative events to mark the 70th Anniversary of diplomatic relations. Over these seven decades, India and Russia have built a relationship of mutual trust and confidence in a range of areas, especially defence.

We therefore welcome Russia’s growing global engagement and remain keen to continue consultations and coordination with Russia on international and regional issues. For India, cooperation with Russia is vital in ensuring stability and security in our shared Eurasian neighbourhood, especially in addressing the menace of terrorism. We also seek a cooperative relationship with Russia for broad based and mutually beneficial economic growth and development in the region.

The problems confronting the international community today cannot be solved by any one country or group of countries.

The issues facing us today require an inclusive approach within broader and consultative frameworks. It is in this context that I offer my comments today on the theme of this session, namely, ‘global security in a polycentric world’.

Distinguished delegates,

A key facet of the prevailing international situation is the continued and rising unpredictability in relations between major powers. This is both unprecedented and a matter of concern.

The current deterioration of ties between Russia and the West is a reflection of this trend. We also see the manifestation of this instability at the manner in which major powers as well as other influential actors have sought to address a range of regional issues and conflicts.

At a fundamental level, such divergent approaches indicate wider diffusion of power in the international system, in particular the rise of Asia. This is a positive development in which India also seeks to play its due role.

However, it is essential that we manage such profound changes keeping in mind the need to balance change and stability.

Specific and concrete efforts must be made to work towards enhancing mutual confidence. We need to avoid perspectives that seek to enhance narrow gains while undermining the larger good.

In the economic sphere, we need to guard against protectionism. Barriers to movement of skilled labour and the closing of borders are unlikely to address the issues involved.

We also need to ensure that benefits of growth continue to flow to less affluent regions. We cannot achieve stability by devising new ways to perpetuate affluence and keeping parts of the world in relative deprivation.

The role of Asia will be central in this process. For the near future, Asian economies will remain the drivers of global growth.

However, violent conflict in parts of West Asia, persistence of instability in Afghanistan and rising threats to security in the wider Asia Pacific region are threatening the gains made over the past few decades of growth and development in Asia.

In particular, the rise of extremist, fundamentalist and terrorist groups needs to be addressed urgently. Violent activities of these groups are also opening up newer sectarian fissures which pose longer term challenges to stability within and across borders.

The situation in Afghanistan remains of concern. There is no choice between a political process and dealing effectively with the forces of terrorism and violence in that country. A policy of zero tolerance towards terrorism is essential if we are to sustain the gains made. We must also, in the face of newer provocations and terrorism, persist with efforts to consolidate capacities of the Afghan government and security forces.

India is committed to supporting the emergence of a secure, stable and peaceful Afghanistan. We believe this is achievable with the continued commitment of the international community. India will continue its assistance and support to the people of Afghanistan. Even as we do as much as we can, we are keen to work with all partners that share similar objectives.

The scourge of terrorism remains a primary international security challenge. Terrorists are reinventing themselves in newer and more dangerous manifestations. The radicalisation of young minds using new technologies and social media networks, the trend of lone-wolf attacks and the continuing patronage of some irresponsible states to terrorist groups, need to be addressed in a comprehensive manner.

Efforts to establish a territorial base in West Asia by terrorists have been dealt a body blow. This was possible because broad objectives of all players, in particular the major international actors, were in alignment. This has been a silver lining in an otherwise challenging global scenario. It highlights the possibilities for greater cooperation in addressing the shared challenges we all face.

Further efforts are necessary to ensure that there is no re-emergence of terrorism in the region and prevent its spill-over onto the wider region by returning terrorists. Better information sharing and intelligence exchanges are essential to address the threat. Cooperation in this effort can provide the basis for collaborative steps on other issues of mutual interest.

We should also resolutely resist attempts by some states to retain influence through terrorist proxies. We in India are well aware of such nefarious designs. Efforts by states to continue training, funding or ideological support to terrorist groups for their narrow objectives should be repulsed effectively, using forceful methods where necessary.

The resurgence of territorial disputes in the maritime domain is another concern. Maritime territorial disputes are extremely complex. We need to ensure that such issues are managed effectively and solely through peaceful means.

The past few decades of growth have transformed the Indo-Pacific region into the most dynamic engine of the global economy. We need to ensure that the prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region is not put at risk through unilateral actions that can undermine regional peace and stability.

The rights of freedom of navigation and over-flight as well as unimpeded commerce should be ensured. For India, this is vital to sustain its own economic engagement with the Indo-Pacific region for mutual benefit.

The efforts to reduce tensions in the Korean peninsula need to be taken forward. India has long pointed to linkages between proliferation in that region to the detriment of our own security environment.

There is also scope for cooperative approaches to address the growing salience of non-traditional security challenges such as climate change, food and energy insecurity, financial instability and the disruptive effects of technology. Effective management of such threats, including cyber-security, as well as meeting humanitarian assistance and disaster relief requirements are areas where established and rising powers can work together for the broader benefit of all.

Overall, the current international scenario has laid bare the challenges posed by great power competition. At the same time, it has illustrated the potential benefits of cooperative approaches.

In a multi-polar world we will therefore need to work to broaden areas of convergence and minimise differences. There is no scope for expansionism, unilateral approaches or for beggar thy neighbour policies.

We must also continue to seek inclusive frameworks for dialogue and cooperation that involve all responsible stakeholders, whether bilaterally, regionally or multilaterally.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

India is playing its due role in maintenance of regional and international peace and stability. India’s continued economic rise over the past few decades has helped lift millions of its citizens out of poverty. The government is keen to enhance transparency, inclusion and growth, and to leverage innovation and the potentialities of the digital economy in this effort.

In our region, we have worked to share the benefits of our own growth by seeking to elevate the economic trajectory of our neighbours.

With our renewed emphasis on regional connectivity, continued focus on our Act East policy and strong efforts to expand engagement with countries in our extended neighbourhood ranging from West Asia, the Gulf and Africa as well as the wider Indian Ocean Region, India is today creating a dynamic network of international partnerships.

Economic and diplomatic engagement with the Eurasian region is a key priority for India. Building on our strong ties with Russia, we are strengthening our linkages with Central Asian countries. We continue to manage the complexities in the India-China relationship even as we seek to make progress within the framework of a broader developmental partnership. India is also working with ASEAN countries and other partners to build a regional architecture that is open, balanced and ensures sovereignty and security of all countries.

Defence and security cooperation is an increasingly important aspect of India’s regional and global engagement. We are developing a range of military to military ties, sharing best practices, building capacities through training as well as cooperating on defence industry and R&D for mutual benefit.

Our efforts are making considerable progress. I am confident that India’s partnerships will contribute to a more stable and peaceful environment, spur greater economic development and establish India’s role as a factor for growth and stability in our region and beyond.

India will continue to work closely with Russia and other international partners on all issues of mutual interest, both bilaterally as well as in broader frameworks such as BRICS, SCO and other forums. Effective cooperation between India and Russia will be a key factor in enhancing regional and global security in future.

Thank you!


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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 05 Apr 2018 00:34

Anyone comments on the 'trade war' between US and China?

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Rahulsidhu » 05 Apr 2018 01:35

ramana wrote:Anyone comments on the 'trade war' between US and China?


I think Trump is right in what he says: the war has already been on for some time, only the US is now beginning to retaliate.

US exports to China are about $ 120bn, while Chinese exports to the US are $ 600bn or so. Obviously China cannot match US tariffs $ for $. Both sides will be hurt but China will be hurt much more.
Moreover, Chinese imports are either very low tech (Agri, Gas) or very high tech which China doesn't have yet. It will be much easier for supply chains into the US to adjust than those into the Chinese market.

Apart from trade, investment into China will be effected for investors begin to factor-in Geo-economic risks in investing in Chinese production.

If this trade war disrupts supply chains, as it definitely will unless US and China reach a compromise, it presents a great opportunity for India. In sectors like electronics where the industry is just beginning to take shape, this could prove to be a huge boost.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 05 Apr 2018 02:31

Agreed. I think its negotiating tactic and by end of the year things will be back to new normal. The quantum of sanctions ($50B each) shows they are not out for general war but to make some points.

Like the duels with swords in the mid 17 century

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby panduranghari » 07 Apr 2018 12:08

How will china respond:
1/ sell treasuries. They own 1.2 trillion worth. - US will negate it with a stroke of electronic pen by buying up the sold treasuries.
2/ massive yuan devaluation like from 2015. SHCOMP crashed then, it could this time too.
3/ retrospective tariffs on US goods. China does not buy even 50 billion worth of stuff from US.
4/ stop US from providing services in China. Here US gets 38 billion surplus by selling services( how many are Wall Street financial services? ;)
5/ stop sale of rare earth metals to US like they did in 2010 to Japan over Senkaku islands.

Trade wars will impoverish the proletariat in US and China. It means revolution. This is theoretically Good news for India.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Austin » 07 Apr 2018 12:20

panduranghari wrote:How will china respond:
1/ sell treasuries. They own 1.2 trillion worth. - US will negate it with a stroke of electronic pen by buying up the sold treasuries.


It wont be that easy as bond market are as much about trust as it is about money itself.

It would be impossible to sell $1.2 trillion even if the chinese want to but lets assume they could do that than it would lead to significant change in US T bills interest rate and Stock Market will collapse , even a small $50 billion tarriff lead to fall of many 100 points for dow jones.

T Bills are nuke option for Chinese to be used only as last resort if every thing fails becuase it will impact their exports too

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Austin » 07 Apr 2018 12:20

Boeing is on the receiving end here

China Tariffs Could Hurt More Than First Thought

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... st-thought

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby panduranghari » 07 Apr 2018 12:40

Austin wrote:
It wont be that easy as bond market are as much about trust as it is about money itself.

It would be impossible to sell $1.2 trillion even if the chinese want to but lets assume they could do that than it would lead to significant change in US T bills interest rate and Stock Market will collapse , even a small $50 billion tarriff lead to fall of many 100 points for dow jones.

T Bills are nuke option for Chinese to be used only as last resort if every thing fails becuase it will impact their exports too


Bond bear market started after 35 years in June 2016. The bond yields are gradually rising and will eventually get to the 1980 levels and then move higher from there too. At the moment the yield curve is flat- there is not much gain in holding a 30 year bond than a 2 year bond. God forbid - Trump et al must be thinking - if it inverts, it positively benefits holding shorter duration treasury holdings. So if China sells even half then in theory it's game over for both US and China. End of dollar hegemony if you will.

Then the question arises how will china devalue the yuan? They have to sell a lot of treasuries to make the capital account deficient- another step towards its goal of reserve currency status. But that alone won't be sufficient. They need people to hold yuan. Also selling US treasuries does not mean not buying alternative investments I.e. Euro bonds or Japanese bonds. While yuan will devalue vis-a-vis dollar, it will rise against Euro or yen. But US markets are its prized asset. Do they have alternative market? OBOR is not yet functional, India is positively not going to let Chinese in, RCEP is still not big enough.

Trump obviously does not want the DOW to crash but it will irrespective of his wish. He may expedite it.

US will come out weaker but it's still a demographically surplus state. It's the revolution that Chinese communists need to fear. If we understand Tianamen square protest of 1989 was predominantly a rising inflation protest, why should such a thing not reapeat. So IMO China comes out weaker.

As there is still a dollar shortage globally, we can expect QE instead of QT as relayed by Powell.

How can India play this? Have you got thoughts?

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Austin » 07 Apr 2018 13:01

We do not know how this will play up , you have put up a theory which may be one way this can play out.

As far as India goes i would say we should buy more Gold instead of just investing in T bills , RBI hold very less gold just about 500 T for a country like us we RBI needs Gold in around 3000T atleast.

Trump has hint that market will crash that is why he said let it crash but we will come out stronger ...time will tell


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