Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ricky_v »

https://www.realclearworld.com/articles ... 76261.html
The book has come in for high praise from no less than leading American statesman Henry Kissinger and William Webster, a former director of both the CIA and FBI. Kissinger describes it a “sweeping exploration of the changing energy landscape looks far into the future and outlines issues that will occupy scholars and policymakers for decades to come.” Retired Marine Corps General James L. Jones, former President Barack Obama’s security advisor, penned the book’s foreword. Gen. Jones describes Mirtchev’s tome as "a timely and truly inspired perspective on 21st century global security challenges" – one that helps disaggregate “the complex relationship between economics, the alternative energy megatrend, security, and defense and the implications for the unfolding major power competition.” .
In this seminal work on the planetary scale of 21st century security challenges, Mirtchev makes brilliant use of a new conceptual prism that he calls the “alternative energy megatrend.” Using this construct as a guide, Mirtchev traces the geopolitical combinations likely to emerge in the coming decades. Much has been written about the multipolarity that is coming to characterize the international system. Until now, however, no one has been able to systematically explain the emergence of a multicentric world order catalyzed by the human quest for alternative energy.
Mirtchev unpacks the growing complexity of international relations in which states are joined by a broad range of non-state actors. The latter include intergovernmental institutions, NGOs, multinational corporations, organized crime syndicates and terrorist entities. These players expand the spaces in which power can be projected and the ways in which it is used. The quest to unlock and exploit the energy sources of the future connects with this growing complexity to upend global balances of power. In the geopolitics to come, foreign policy is no longer just about states trying to maintain territorial integrity. These non-state actors, unlimited by borders, are redefining what national and even international security means through the advancement of a "green creed" and the creation of new global norms about the need for alternative energy sources.
Mirtchev explores how the development of renewable sources of energy are giving rise to this new Grand Energy Game.
Mirtchev then emphasizes their collective nature in the form of a megatrend, whose future security trajectory will be shaped by the ongoing Fourth Industrial Revolution and by exponential advances in artificial intelligence.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/ ... o-respond/
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by AshishA »

Some in the french military are sending letters warning of civil war. With the elections scheduled this year, France is heading towards a tumultuous future. Its a very serious and tense situation if their military is on verge of rebellion. It will be a big blow to India if one of our close allies are plunged in civil war.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Shwetank »

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Pratyush »

https://www.nbr.org/publication/india-a ... ith-india/

Brief synopsis of the page
As India continues its rise, a combination of factors may give it outsized influence on the global stage. NBR spoke with Richard Fontaine, president of the Center for New American Security, and Daniel Kliman, senior advisor for the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, about their argument for why India is a “global swing state” (along with Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey). They outline what being a “swing state” means for India’s role in the international order and offer recommendations on how Washington should engage New Delhi within this framework.
Makes for interesting reading. Provides an understanding of how Khan sees India. Right or wrong I will not make that determination.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chanakyaa »

Following topic is at the intersection of geopolitics and tech. Speculative but possible. In April 2021, Taiwan Semiconductor's founder Morris Chang expressed his displeasure at the efforts by US, China, and EU to speed up some on-shoring of semiconductor chip making. His points on pure economics, free market based solution makes sense, but what is not mentioned is the geopolitical angle. May be he sees it coming or just doesn't care, but if or when (more likely) Taiwan turns into Crimea (2-5 years), the ensuing Chip shortage will put India, its businesses (IT obviously), and infrastructure at a massive risk. Unlike uncle and panda who are investing billions in on-shoring chip manufacturing, India can't :((. Uncle's desire to protect IP from Cheena supports its desire to on-shoring efforts, but why now when the semi manufacturing has reached its peak?? It made sense 10-20 years ago, but not today. Unless realization that panda was successful in luring TSMC and related talent over years in building home grown fab capabilities.

TSMC Founder Says Breaking Up Chip Supply Chain Will Be Costly
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. founder Morris Chang warned that efforts by governments around the world to build domestic chip supply chains could push up costs and yet still fail to achieve self-sufficiency.

Speaking as Taiwan’s envoy to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ virtual meeting, Chang’s comments come as Taiwan’s dominant position in the semiconductor business has come under pressure, amid a widespread global chip shortage and calls in Tokyo to Washington and Beijing for domestic chipmakers to increase self-reliance....
TSMC says has begun construction at its Arizona chip factory site
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chanakyaa »

New environmental and climate policies and reduced role of oil/gas is likely to impact west asia and regional politics. Nothing new. It has been in public domain for some time. These are slow moving changes but progress is steady. MBS desire to move away from radical eeslam makes sense. Without which this hydrocarbon based economy may find it difficult to go back to camel herding days.. India is in an enviable position to capitalize on this transition.

(CFR) The EU Green Deal Just Raised the Bar on Climate Policy
Last week the European Commission seized global leadership on climate change, unveiling a sweeping scheme to reduce the EU’s carbon emissions by 55 percent from 1990 levels by 2030 and achieve “net zero” by 2050. Brussels envisions a total overhaul of the bloc’s economy, including eliminating the sale of new gas- and diesel-powered automobiles by 2035 and introducing border taxes to penalize imports from jurisdictions less committed to decarbonization
...
To reduce “carbon leakage,” as the former phenomenon is known, and ensure a level playing field in global trade, the commission proposes a new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, or CBAM, to increase the cost of carbon-intensive imports—including cement, steel, aluminum and fertilizers—from countries with more lenient regulatory standards. The EU has long considered but shied away from such a move, for fear of exacerbating trade frictions.
...
Even more dauntingly, the EU will need to ensure that the new regime does not run afoul of World Trade Organization rules. Already, Brazil, China, India and South Africa have “expressed grave concern” that the CBAM is “discriminatory,” particularly against developing countries that bear less historical responsibility for the climate crisis.
...
And, a slow and steady growth of carbon tax regime..

Russia to Pay 1.1Bln Euros Per Year Under EU Carbon Tax – Reports
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

https://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/publications/reports

Folks we are suffering from a paucity of data and reports.
Here is a link to the London School of Economics' already published research and thus data rich.
So please take time to ready what interests you and post a link and short response in the appropriate thread.
Thanks, ramana
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by cdbatra »

Pratyush wrote:https://www.nbr.org/publication/india-a ... ith-india/

Brief synopsis of the page
As India continues its rise, a combination of factors may give it outsized influence on the global stage. NBR spoke with Richard Fontaine, president of the Center for New American Security, and Daniel Kliman, senior advisor for the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, about their argument for why India is a “global swing state” (along with Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey). They outline what being a “swing state” means for India’s role in the international order and offer recommendations on how Washington should engage New Delhi within this framework.
Makes for interesting reading. Provides an understanding of how Khan sees India. Right or wrong I will not make that determination.

This is 8 years old writeup . Just too much water has flowed through Ganga and Yangtse since then. I doubt thatvAmreeka still holds the same view of India being a swing state. This however would still hold true when it comes to remaining 3 countries mentioned in this report.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

India would be THE pivot rather than a swing state in Asia !
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Lohit »

A historical analysis of the Afghan state's role in the Indian sub-continent and its extrapolation to potential geo-pol implications

Afghanistan and the subcontinent: an inseparable history of conflict

The region and peoples that live in the current state of Afghanistan have been playing a very unique role in the Indian subcontinent for almost 1000 years.

Afghans live in a unique country. Its climate is extremely inhospitable with majority of the land experiencing either hot or cold desert conditions. Agriculture and industry has therefore been very hard to pursue given these conditions. However sitting at the "center of Asia" - and tempered by the harsh conditions, the warlike people of the country have often "struck out" throughout their history and have taken up a predatory role - bandits looting caravans, tribes breaking out of their desolate mountains to raid cities and in fact, for long tracts of their history - conquerors and rulers of surrounding lands. If I was to use an analogy, the wolf comes to mind.

A good source to get a bird's eye view of their domination as conquerors can be had by eyeballing this page - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_w ... fghanistan

If I were to chronologically look at tracts of Afghan history of the past 1000 years, it is deeply , I see it as -

1000-1215 AD: Ghurids. Orignally Buddhists, post conversion to Islam and consolidating the Afghans they ruled over a massive kingdom covering modern day Pakistan and most of North and Eastern India.

1290-1325 AD: Khalji. Post a period of decline and confusion post Ghurid decline and domination by Iranian Khwarezmids, Khaljis ruled over modern day Pakistan and large tracts of North, West and Southern India.

1325-1525 AD: this was a period where Afghanistan was chewed up a lot by the Mongols and mostly kept within hemmed within the Timurid empire.

1525-1738: Mughals. Afghanistan was splintered into 3 parts the western part being ruled by Iranian Safavids, Northern by the Mongol Khanates and Eastern by the Mughals. Afghans did very well under the Mughals - Babur more or less considered Kabul as his home and Afghan soldiers and administrators were key in ruling the entirety of the subcontinent, throughout its length.

1747-1823: Durranis. Post a hiatus caused by Iranian Nader Shah, Afghans consolidated and unified under Ahmed Shah Abdali and established rule over modern day Pakistan and parts of North India.

1830-1947: Emirate of Afghanistan. With the coming in of the British rule in India, the Afghan rule abated but it was marked by three Anglo-Afghan wars and countless skirmishes where Afghanistan repeatedly disrupting territory in modern day Pakistan. Constant skirmishes and raids made the frontier known as a wild, restive region.

1947-73: Kingdom of Afghanistan. The Durand line caused several skirmishes with Pakistan including serious ones in '49, '55 and '60.

1973-96: Republic of Afghanistan. The soviet satellite which was devastated by the Afghan war saw conflict often spill to Pakistan, thousands of Pakistanis directly died fighting in the war.

1996-2001: Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Taliban ruled over the part of Afghanistan excluding controlled by Northern Alliance for all of five years. However in this period, Taliban either directly exported or gave refuge to mujahedin mercenaries who went on to fight in far flung areas from Chechnya, North Africa, South East Asia, Kashmir, Xinjiang and ultimately the conspiracy which hit New York. Meanwhile they caused major problems to India with militancy in Kashmir reaching historic highs.

2001-present: Transition government. Involved in numerous skirmishes with Pakistan. However the real challenge came via Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan, which ran an insurgency which resulted in the deaths of thousands of Pakistani soldiers and tens of thousands of civilians.

Insight: We therefore have the history lesson of a thousand years to conclude that Afghans, inevitably prey on other nations - this trend is only reinforced when Afghans are consolidated and united under a single authority - as seems to be happening right now.

With this insight here is my attempt at reading geo-pol tea leaves in the near to medium term ('21-'26),

US, EU: Tactically the retreat is a big win as the coalition rids itself from the world's first trillion dollar war which was needlessly propping up a thoroughly incompetent and corrupt Afghan plant regime. The biggest beneficiaries of the massive Allied effort clobbered into place by Bush's hectoring, ironically, were countries who were fence sitters: India which saw Kashmir insurgency ebb, Uighurs in China, Chechens in Russia, assorted militant groups in the Middle East, East and West Africa - all saw their "safe space" being taken away giving the respective nations a chance at respite and shoring defenses. Yes, there were the ISILs of the worldbut with an Afghanistan under Taliban, the situation would only have been much worse. The sheriff of the world can therefore hang his boots and take some well deserved rest. However, fully expect AQ and other old ghosts of the past to re-emerge within the next couple of years causing violent terror attacks on the west to surge. Politically this may strengthen right-wing parties.

China: A major stink bomb just went off in China's backyard. I fully expect most BRI projects to stall and die out as the region is engulfed in a massive spiral of violence. While I do think any potential Uighur upsurge will be crushed down with a mailed fist, it will still cause China problems on its Eastern front where it wants to otherwise single mindedly focus on India. There already are reports of Uyghurs making up a few thousands in number of the Taliban. Overall the stakes in South China Sea and the Malacca straits as the only reliable trade route will increase and China's efforts to militarily secure this route will also build pressure on ASEAN, Taiwan and Japan - increasing instability and likelihood of war.

Russia and the Stans: A Taliban victory is terrible news for Putin and other assorted dictators who rule the Stans. I fully expect separatist movements from Tatarstan to Chechnya to reignite. Ditto for Stans as Uzbeks, Tajiks etc now make up 40% of the Taliban and they will be more than eager to spread their banner over the countries of their ethnicity. Realpolitik from the West will only encourage these efforts to shake up Putin's throne.

India: Like the ANA, India was also afforded 20 years to prep up its defenses. While one has clearly failed, it is to be seen how well India is able to deal with the surely coming upsurge in militancy. I fully expect a massive spike in fighter numbers, weapons and tech in the Kashmir insurgency. The more disturbing scenario is - in an increasingly communally divided India, such violence can also boil over to other parts of the country which have otherwise been quiet for two decades. The Taliban are essentially Deobandi and Barelvi - both Islamic movements with 10s of millions of followers in India as well, worst case scenario could see a massive influx of radicalized Indians who receive training and weapons in Afghanistan and wreck havoc in India, derailing the already stalled economic progress. Overall a grim outlook faces India.

Middle East, Africa and Turkey: This region may face a divergent outlook. For most nations - Islamic movements will now have a safe sanctuary to organize, train, plot and gain strength - to challenge the dictatorships that rule these countries. Given the often extremely reactionary and short term thinking that the leaderships of these countries indulge in, some might even fund and facilitate such activities. However, Qatar and Turkey - might actually gain geo-pol by using Afghanistan's strength in waging asymmetric war by acting as agents that trade in this commodity. Fully expect civil wars and violence to reach new heights. Also tensions between Turkey-Qatar and GCC bloc may rise.

Iran: Given that Afghanistan is 90-95% Sunni, the scenario looks bad for Iran as Sunni militants there will gain much strength. Like China however it is in a position to brutally clamp down on such movements. I do not however, see any silver lining for Iran as Taliban gain complete domination in Kabul. Iran may become more tightly coupled with the Turkish-Qatari axis to save its skin from the Taliban, in turn fueling tensions vs Saudi led GCC.

Pakistan: Taliban gaining absolute control over Afghanistan in my opinion has the worst portends for Pakistan. What the western media characterizes as Pakistan's "control" over Taliban is more often a case where Pakistan actually having scant choice in the matter. Going along with Taliban afforded Pakistan advantages such as mujahidin's to deploy against India. The "new" Taliban has supplanted Pakistan's role of an intermediary by dealing directly as it is doing with China or via Qatar or Turkey. The withdrawal is an economic catastrophe for Pakistan as a new refugee influx looks very likely. However most importantly, billions of dollars of money that flowed from the West and was gained by Pakistan as direct or "gray" exports via trade to a modernizing Afg will now disappear. The West looking to find a whipping boy for its "failure" will look at "punishing" Pakistan economically via sanctions that will push its tottering economy towards total economic collapse. The West may also indulge in realpolitik to encourage movements such as TTP - potentially causing massive bloodshed and instability. The insurgency last time even as TTP was being droned by the US and squatted over Afg was intense, this new one will be magnitudes of order more severe - and with no aid from the west. Pakistan with an ideologically conservative society and rampant poverty unfortunately presents fertile grounds for this. Instability will also mean drying up of Chinese projects and connectivity that were hitherto progressing under the thankless shade of NATO in Afg. Most critically however - as the 10s of thousands of Pakistani mujahidins who fought for Taliban return to KPK and Waziristan, they will naturally want to put in place in Pakistan the same system as they put next door. Pashtun eyes on both sides will again look hungrily at Peshawar and Quetta. While Pakistan has used mujahidins in a calibrated manner in Kashmir, the challenge now will be holding the surge back. Given India's new nationalistic "muscular response" policy - this only means war with India becomes more likely than ever. Worst case scenario for Pakistan, the sub-continent and the world is the old nightmare of mad mullahs gaining power through a revolution - and by extension - Pakistan's nukes. For anyone wondering how a Afg-Pak conflict might go down, once the goodies start drying up in Kabul may read - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Anglo-Afghan_War - this may play out, without of course the Brits, Sikhs, Gurkhas and Dogras at play. Influx of Pashtuns into Pakistan will also fuel resentment in other provinces such as Punjab but especially Sindh and Baluchistan.

Overall, given a few years, I expect the world to clamor back to the US and its allies for security and weapons sales. Also given the upheavals that are going to go down in the backyards of US' main strategic rivals - Russia and China - stand to loose in the SCO sphere and get hit economically, strategically. So notwithstanding any spectacles of Taliban unfurling its banners over Kabul on the 9/11 anniversary, US stands to gain overall mid term with heightened risk of terrorist attacks - any such attack will mean pressure on Pakistan to deliver on the undeliverable. The biggest losers look to be sub-continental nations, with Pakistan and India facing the grimmest scenarios.

Finally, let me also put up a long term view (completely ideal and hypothetical): the only solution to the Afghan issue is hinted at by the period under the Mughals where Afghanistan was split into three. Even now, a likely solution may involve a truly global military and diplomatic effort whereby the North goes to Stans, Western provinces to Iran and Eastern Pashtun provinces to Pakistan. The only catch however is that a super-large Pashtun population may again in turn alienate and cause resentment/separatism amongst Punjabi, Sindhi and Baloch populations of Pak.

Summary - US withdrawal is likely infact going to strengthen it geo-politically while causing massive problems for the world at large but especially countries of the Indian subcontinent - politically the old "clash of civilizations"/xenophobic/right-wing dispensations will gain ground. Looking at historical patterns, the solution to contain the restive, war-like people of Afghanistan is to split the country along religio-ethnic lines and assimilate the regions into larger, stabler nations.

Course of action for India:
Trust but verify any overture from taliban - as it will most likely be a taqiyya maneuver. Default mode for India should be highest level of alert. Replicate what we did for the Northern Alliance - the only good Taliban (radical jihadi, trained and fed by ISI) is a dead Talibani. Train Indian media to raise human rights abuses in Afg to build pressure on US and the West to align with India to build pressure on Taliban and Pak. Globally we should be the most steadfast and staunchest enemies of the Taliban, there can never be any piece with them. Also, Kashmiris should be told that this is the final opportunity for them to reform or we clamp down as hard as possible and sanitize Kashmir like Xi did to Turkistan or Stalin to the Stans.

All this and self belief. Indians pre-Islam dominated Afghanistan and Pakistan for 3000+ years, we have the same DNA, we can surely do so again.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by rsingh »

It is high time we start oil imports from Iran. Khan dowen and under. IT wiil be difficult for US to press for sanction now. US has lost credibility any blah blah is to be countered by strong words from MEA. who knows IraN may start squeezing BAKIS from west.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Samay »

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

Lohit, Good article. Have you considered submitting it to Myindmakers or other on-line journals?
Will need to add a few maps and polish the language.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Lohit »

ramana wrote:Lohit, Good article. Have you considered submitting it to Myindmakers or other on-line journals?
Will need to add a few maps and polish the language.
Pranam Guru, I have not, will certainly consider.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Lohit »

The rapidly crystallizing global world order of the 21st c and the role of the US in birthing it (Analysis / Essay)

The focal point of all geo-political analyses, these days, has coagulated under the central theme of the rise of China and measures to counter/contain/manage it.

However, I feel all such analyses are misguided or deliberately obfuscate, the reality of how geo-politics is likely to shape. The real principles governing the rise of a new world order and its accompanying geo-politics can be gleaned quite easily if one understands the following,

1. Global corporations own Nations: Globally nation states, especially those in the West are now completely beholden to the massive global corporates. This means the policy and action that nations take up, shall be dictated by what corporates have always wanted and will always want - maximizing profits and share holder returns. I do not think that this point requires much explanation. Corporate lobbies and how money controls politicians is a fairly well established fact.

2. The paramount priority of global corporations and ergo the nations they control - is the undisputed and unimpeded rise of China: If we look at projections of consumer market size and value growth, for the coming 30 years, it becomes amply clear that - firstly China is expected to grow to almost 3-4 times of where it is today. By contrast other G20 economies with perhaps the exception of India and a few others, will either shrink in terms of consumers available or shrink/stagnate in terms of average consumer spend.

A good sense of the shift that I am referring to, can be had by eyeballing this report: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insi ... -2050.html

Ask yourself, if you were the Chairman of a Fortune 50 firm or the CEO of a trillion dollar asset management firm, whose job only depends on churning double digit growth figures to your shareholders every quarter after quarter - how would you do achieve that, if you were to ignore China? It is simply impossible.

Over the coming 30 years, US-Western Europe-Japan, who perhaps account for 40-50% of global consumption demand would have shrunk to 20-25%. Worse still the populations would have aged considerably - how do you sell fast food, sneakers and fast fashion to a cohort of 45-50+ year olds?

Contrast that to China. As it stands, Greater China (ie Mainland+HK+Macao and in some cases Taiwan) accounts for 25-40% consumer consumption for almost all global corporates. In some cases, for instance Hollywood box-office, gaming or merchandise sales - consumer spending in China, already exceeds that of the US! And remember, this is when in the post COVID world, most countries face high inflation and a general "pooring" of their populations, while China and its people grow richer (and never mind the hype around Evergrande etc, its just the 'Three Gorges is collpasing' syndrome) - and will continue to grow in size and spending power by leaps and bounds in the next 30-50 years.

I recall from some older posts, that a lot of the old members of the board already foresaw this quite clearly fact - that the Khan and China were always thick as thieves. But for me personally, the actions of the corrupt Biden administration (not that Trump and the phony trade war was very different!), have served the purpose of pulling off the veil quite decidedly.

Consider the following,

Gen Milley, calls a Chinese General, behind his president's back and says, “Things may look unsteady, but that’s the nature of democracy" - when US supposedly champions and exports the same exact Democracy to the world. Heck, a few years back Milley explicitly stated that "China is not our enemy."

Xi Jinping's daughter studies in Harvard for 4 years under Obama admin, even as the US is well aware of what is happening to the **precious** human rights in Xin Jiang and how perniciously Chinese hackers are stealing from the US and murdering off its agents in China.

CCP awards Hunter Biden millions of dollars worth of scarcely concealed bribes, with Hunter requesting a separate set of keys for - Joe Biden - https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter ... c-chairman

All this of course, comes in a long line of tradition.

Nixon built the foundation for China's economic rise with the Shanghai communique.

Carter withdrew the defense treaty with Taiwan and erased it as a nation under the Taiwan Relations Act, tearing up the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty.

Regan armed China with 100s of Million dollar worth of advanced arms, artillery and avionics - https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/ ... dac46c6fc4

Clinton not only helped Chinese economy reach an inflection point by enabling its entry to the WTO and letting it become US' largest trade partner - he even helped China acquire ICBM technology - https://www.nytimes.com/1999/05/11/worl ... china.html

The list is endless. The only difference is that while before the US leaders held a semblance of dignity and formed policy to enable China's rise, they have now become its cup bearers and bed warmers. Biden begs for a face-face meeting with Xi and is publicly rebuffed!

Make no mistake, China is already the world's most powerful country, and more than China, it is the Western nations that want it so.
This is the central principle.

Yes, we may see moves like Australia being given nuclear subs or the odd Huawei CxO detained in Canada - but these are merely feints and pawn-like moves on the global geo-political chessboards. The moment China gives a trade or commercial concessions, such "resolves" will disappear into thin air.

It is important that India, recognizes the central principle and is not fooled by getting pulled into such feints as inevitably, they will only end one way - kowtowing to China once it begrudgingly granted the desired favor - leaving so called Western "allies and partners", high and dry to the tender mercies of China.

As China rises and NATO compromises to its wishes and withdraws its influence, we will see the emergence of regional power blocs. The two most worrying ones for us, in my view, will be - the renewed Ottoman empire (with sway over North Africa, the Stans and the Gulf). Even Russia perhaps - it is projected to be muslim majority in 30 years and who knows, by then we may see a Russian president praying together with the Turkish "khalifa" in Hagia Sophia.

The other power, shall be the renewed Persian empire (with sway over Iraq and the Levant). While these two mini-super powers will often be at odds with the other - both will naturally take up their old civilizational role of being inimical to India, the nation of infidels.

For China and by extension NATO and Iran as well as Turkey - shared interests would converge in, to borrow the term in vogue, "dismantling" India. A number of squabbling nations fighting over limited resources - and of course the traditional, caste/creed/language/religion - is what they would want to see. A captive, weak market that additionally serves up as a buffer between the China and the rest.

All of these aggressors - Islamic, Western powers and China perceive us as an accidental state, holding scores of nations at each others throats. A timid peoples, all to ready to be divided and ruled and eager to serve at the beck and call of outside masters. And given our hstory, heck even as matters stand today - who can blame them for believing so?

The ramifications of this crystallizing new world order are two-fold,

1. Globally, enlightenment values of individual rights, liberty, democracy etc will increasingly vanish - resetting the gains for the human condition of the past 100s of years
2. Internally, India will face extremely high external pressure on its national sovereignty and infact its very existence as a nation state


Faced with such odds, it is important that more than Indian policy makers and leaders - Indian people realize the crisis that we are at. If they decide, we can still be the masters of our own destiny and retain our rightful place in the world order. Afterall the same projections, also indicate India too will be a very large and lucrative marketplace.

The only way I see the analysis outlined above, not holding up, a sort of Pascal's wager if you will - is if there is a realization in NATO powers that a China, enthroned as numero uno, will end the progressive western values and individual rights. Frankly, given the vested interests of corporates and the sheer power at their behest I do not see this happening.

The only way the stranglehold of corporations is challenged can be by leftist popular movements. Corporations have this covered already - the so called BLM, LGBT, Green and other such movements are for the most part controlled by Corporate interests and figureheads such as the notorious George Soros. They are compromised at their very birth - a controlled opposition. And even such movements ultimately look up to China. Thus the hedge is already in place.

Our ancestors, preserved dharmic values and culture - for 300 years against the Turks, 400 years against the Moguls and 200 years against the Europeans. They performed Jauhars and Sakas. Men reconquered lands that had been lost for hundreds of years right till the Attock. Women fought in the battlefield with babies tied to their backs. For what? To preserve Dharma.

Like those hundreds of years, we too can tide this period of global dominance by an evil, autocratic, God-less and merciless China and its Western lackeys. IF, we remember what's important and why it is worth fighting for.

For me personally, UP elections will mark a great bell-weather. If Yogi looses, combined with the loss in Bengal - it will give enough momentum to the opposition to oust Namo in 2024. Then we are right back to potentially decades of chaos and strife. And given the external factors described above, it will make the 80s and early 90s period as India experienced them, seem like a time of amazing peace and prosperity.

As long as we are sorted within, we can crush anything that the world throws at us. If not, we already have the history of the past 1000 years to teach us what happens next.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Mort Walker »

For me personally, UP elections will mark a great bell-weather. If Yogi looses, combined with the loss in Bengal - it will give enough momentum to the opposition to oust Namo in 2024. Then we are right back to potentially decades of chaos and strife. And given the external factors described above, it will make the 80s and early 90s period as India experienced them, seem like a time of amazing peace and prosperity.
I agree with this assessment. There is too much to lose.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Srutayus »

The rapidly crystallizing global world order of the 21st c and the role of the US in birthing it (Analysis / Essay)
Lohit, why don’t you make this into an article for Swarajya or Myindmakers.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Lohit »

Srutayus wrote:
The rapidly crystallizing global world order of the 21st c and the role of the US in birthing it (Analysis / Essay)
Lohit, why don’t you make this into an article for Swarajya or Myindmakers.
Thanks chief. I wasn't aware that Swarajya accepts articles from mango abdul. Ramana garu also suggested Myindmakers, will surely give a shot.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Lohit »

7 key trends whose inter-play can cause significant global geo-economics turmoil (essay)

I would like to table 7 key trends that I sense have become more exacerbated and I see them causing significant (by significant I mean at least a '08 level of economic destruction) global geo-economic turmoil in the near future (6 months-1 year),

The deflation risk: The US and other western economy have built up an enormous amount of liquidity as part of COVID economic fallout containment measures. A lot of this liquidity was 'helicopter money' with far less of it going to building up sustained economic activity or infrastructure - resulting in it contributing to higher inflation. Already inflation in US, UK, Germany, France etc are reporting the highest inflation recorded in 10-30 years. The risk here is that sustained inflation may lead to lasting and strong demand deflation amongst the world's big consumer markets, adversely impacting businesses and cross-border trade globally.

The China risk: Alarming economic news from China - crackdown on tech and businesses had been coming for some time. The current real estate "crisis" (if it turns out to be one) - has the risk of erasing significant value trapped in Chinese real estate - which in turn would lead to significant erosion of consumer confidence, consumption and appetite for lending amongst financial institutions - a recipe for recession. Obviously given the sheer size of the chinese economy any "x %" hit will have global reverberations. China's alarming plunge in birth-rates would also have caused pause to several businesses hyper-focussed on China.

The supply chain risk: We recently had large media houses such as even CNN reporting about a potential risk of a "supply chain collapse". Container shipping rates have gone up by 5-10x and social media is full of alarming visuals of endless cargo ship pile-ups. Given poor customer fulfillment by global supply-chains as well as increased cost for both manufacturers and consumers, there is likelihood of fall in demand and supply. Additionally, the built up inventory as it is released into the market will again lead to a supply glut which will suppress demand and lead to inventory losses for manufacturers. Given that global trade is ~$20 Tn or 20% of global GDP - again a supply chain shock of a "x %" hit will cause massive impact.

The energy risk: Prices are surging across the fuel spectrum, from Natural gas, Coal to Gas, as economies push to re-start and hit the U-shaped recovery of their economies. However excessive heating of demand can have a whiplash effect due to excessively high energy costs and cause a demand drop from consumers as well as a supply drop as producers are unable to meet the high energy bill. China is already resorting to wide-spread power cuts and India is expected to follow suit soon.

The climate risk: Climate instabilities are manifesting in increasingly starker ways - widespread falls in food production from in Latin American and African nations, prediction of an unexpectedly cold winter this year that will further exacerbate energy demand in the Northern Hemisphere and global water shortages. This again has a potential to decimate growth, especially in developing economies as tey are put at the recieving end of food and fuel inflation that their economies and central banks are ill equipped to deal with.

Covid-2x?: While vaccinations have clearly ensured that the worst of the COVID crisis is behind us, there are still possibilities of significant waves, especially in winter. Threat of a new break-out variant still looms impacting global travel and movement, adding to economic uncertainties. Moreover there have been, unforeseen consequences of mass vaccination such as the Australian trucker strikes, mass firings/resignations in the US of "non-vaxxers", etc And even as we try and combat COVID, the recent case spike seen in Israel, despite almost global high vaccination and vaccination fatigue may mean that COVID still has a potential to cause massive pain to the global economy.

Geo-political risks: I distinctly "feel" that the world has worsened in terms of geo-political stability v/s pre-COVID. South China sea is at a historic high in terms of tensions and the situations is worsening between China and India. An Afghanistan under Taliban has apparently opened a Pandora's box in Central Asia, even as there are new tensions between Turko-Azeri alliance and Iran. Most sub-saharan powerhouse economies such as South Africa, Nigeria and Ethiopia seem to be facing significant internal turmoil, while even Sahel nations such as Morocco and Tunisia are at historic levels of tensions, alongwith rapid rise in Islamic extremism in that region. A combative Biden administration is testing and pushing back an equally combative Putin who yesterday tested a 2k km range sub-launched hypersonic missile capable of carrying a tactical nuke. Israel's neighborhood seems restive especially given the situation in Lebanon. The only bright spot seem to be the rapprochement between Israel and Gulf countries but even there it is shaping more like an alliance pitted against Turkey. Turkey itself is creating a large sphere of influence stretching from Somalia to Ukraine and Syria to Pakistan -pitting it against rivals including Mediterranean states, India and Russia. Even in the EU we see small but not insignificant friction between Eastern European nations such as Hungary-Czech-Poland v/s the rest. There is also increasing break-down in co-operation, most notably between UK and France. Large nations such as the US, Brazil, France, Russia, India and China are facing internal protests that seem to be fairly unprecedented. We of course in India are especially gifted, with the basket-case of the world, Pakistan being saddled right beside us.

The fact that ALL of these trends are playing out at the same time, to me, seems like a situation unprecedented since WW2.

I welcome your views on the trends listed above,

Do you think I am over-stating their potential to cause havoc?

Do you feel there are other far stronger counter-trends that nullify and stabilize the ones mentioned here?

Do you feel that the window mentioned 6 months-1 year in which we will see a crescendo or at least a local maxima is exaggerated and that these will play out but over a shorter (more painful) / longer time frame (less panful)?
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by S_Madhukar »

I am particularly worried about how the internal fake strife ends in Desh with a whimper or a unholy bang.
I am not too worried about the usual Russia, China, Baki flexing, they can manage internal strife better than us. US won’t wallow into another conflict even if it’s Taiwan. As long as supply chains are protected or substituted the world will function fine with or without China.I think the wars of this century will be more psychological and economic in nature . I don’t think we have in “us” globally the ability to rage and fight a physical war, most of the younger generation had it good. COVID is more an excuse to disrupt the global status quo w.r.t. globalisation and internal country dynamics. Once a country reaches a good vaccination rate they are good to carry on. I think the sulks and fights amongst nations like UK France and ME or East Asia will question economic integration rather than geopolitical issues right now
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ricky_v »

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/ ... the-crisis
An estimated 3,000 to 4,000 migrants and refugees, many of whom are reportedly from the Middle East and Afghanistan, are camped out in what is effectively a no-man’s-land between Belarus and Poland after being denied entry to the EU nation.
Months earlier, the EU and the United States penalised Lukashenko’s government for cracking down on dissent after a disputed August 2020 election which handed the 67-year-old a sixth term and provoked mass anti-government protests.

Angered by the toughened measures, Lukashenko hit back by announcing Belarus would stop trying to prevent undocumented migrants and refugees from reaching the EU, arguing the bloc’s sanctions deprived his government of the funds needed to do so.

Since then, EU member states bordering Belarus, including Lithuania, Latvia and Poland, have reported sharp increases in the number of people attempting to cross their borders.
The EU accuses Minsk of deliberately enticing migrants and refugees to Belarus and then funnelling them westwards with promises of easy entry into the bloc as part of a “hybrid attack” on its member states in retaliation for sanctions.
Lukashenko denies those allegations and charges the EU with violating human rights by denying people safe passage, contrary to international rules of asylum.
https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-dispat ... 10853.html
“It is shocking to witness Europe’s inability to properly handle such a low number of migrants stranded at the Poland-Belarus border,” says Jan Egeland, secretary general of the Norwegian Refugee Council.

“A few thousand people at Europe’s Polish border, many of whom have fled some of the worst crises in the world, is a drop in the ocean compared to the number of people displaced to countries that are much poorer elsewhere,” he adds.

But Egeland also criticized Minsk. “The way Belarus is using migrants and refugees to achieve political ends is equally outrageous. Vulnerable people are not chess pawns to be used in a geopolitical struggle,” he said.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chanakyaa »

#China #Taiwan #Semiconductor #US #World #India

West is rapidly preparing itself to be delinked itself from Taiwan in one important area. If Taiwan is attacked (either knowingly attacked or allowed to be attacked so that sanctions can follow) and the country’s production capacity (mostly semiconductor production) is materially damaged, its impact on India and the world will be worse than a similar incident from past -- 1973 Arab oil embargo. US and Europe are rapidly working on on-shoring the semiconductor capabilities before this unfortunate event takes place (or knowingly allowed to take place). Unlike the oil embargo, which was relatively easy to fix, the semiconductor production can’t be fixed in a short time period even if gazzillon amounts (pick yr currency) is thrown at the problem. Imagine the impact to India's IT industry if told that you can’t upgrade your computers/servers because the chips are not available for at least 5-7 years. India has given renewed focus in this area, but level of dependency is unavoidably high. In a normal environment, data is the new oil, but in an abnormal environment semiconductor is the oil, with exception that you can operate with older technologies for few more years, but at some point it must be upgraded.

Here are some recent events and data points….

2020
Regaining The Edge In U.S. Chip Manufacturing

2021
2 charts show how much the world depends on Taiwan for semiconductors
...
Taiwan dominates the foundry market, or the outsourcing of semiconductor manufacturing. Its contract manufacturers together accounted for more than 60% of total global foundry revenue last year
...
“So TSMC, if you just have a look at market share, I believe manufactures around 50% of all semiconductors in the world. And I think that still understates how important it is, because these are some of the most advanced chips out there,” said Wang.
...
Intel Steps Up Capital Spending to Regain Chip-Making Crown

January 2022
FACT SHEET: Biden-⁠Harris Administration Bringing Semiconductor Manufacturing Back to America

CHIPS for America Act & FABS Act
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

The ongoing balkanisation of USSR seems to be the template the western countries are trying inside India.

Currently there is political narratives peddled in the western media about Russian mobilisation near Ukraine but search hard and you won't even see the actual deployments of US, UK, Canada and other NATO deployments in almost all countries surrounding it. Weird ?! ..no not really. This is how narratives work. , and public opinion "facilitated".

Currently NATO is forward deployed. US in Poland, Canada in Lithuania, latvia and Estonia has also nato presence.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by S_Madhukar »

No wonder sometimes I feel justified for the way Sugars act as they know if the west gets a free hand in their media or country they will attempt the same Balkanisation there. of course they use the same tactics against us so we should be even more vigilant about this pincer.
We better not follow the western “free trade” economic textbook to the letter specially when they control media and financial institutions and current monetary theory (21st century greatest fraud) and develop our own institutions and models.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ricky_v »

Image
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

kit wrote:The ongoing balkanisation of USSR seems to be the template the western countries are trying inside India.

Currently there is political narratives peddled in the western media about Russian mobilisation near Ukraine but search hard and you won't even see the actual deployments of US, UK, Canada and other NATO deployments in almost all countries surrounding it. Weird ?! ..no not really. This is how narratives work. , and public opinion "facilitated".

Currently NATO is forward deployed. US in Poland, Canada in Lithuania, latvia and Estonia has also nato presence.
Remember the original balkanisation ideas came from the East India company s "exploits" in India ., making Britain " Great" Britain

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr

45 Trillion was the lifeblood of an ancient civilisation

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by S_Madhukar »

That’s why we need to crush all the Jaichands and Gungadins ruthlessly. They had it too easy with such locals helping them… at least then they had guns and cannons and the world was closed and inaccessible to us. The field is more open and flatter now and the tolerance for physical pain is low. Dandneeti should never be abandoned.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by eklavya »

kit wrote:The ongoing balkanisation of USSR ….
The USSR was dissolved on 26 December 1991. It hasn’t existed for 30 years. How can its balkanisation be ongoing?
kit wrote: Currently there is political narratives peddled in the western media about Russian mobilisation near Ukraine but search hard and you won't even see the actual deployments of US, UK, Canada and other NATO deployments in almost all countries surrounding it. Weird ?! ..no not really. This is how narratives work. , and public opinion "facilitated".
Please take a look the NATO website:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm
Allies implemented the 2016 Warsaw Summit decisions to establish NATO’s forward presence in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland and to develop a tailored forward presence in the Black Sea region.

NATO has enhanced its forward presence in the eastern part of the Alliance, with four multinational battalion-size battlegroups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, on a rotational basis.

These battlegroups, led by the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany and the United States respectively, are robust and combat-ready forces. They demonstrate the strength of the transatlantic bond and make clear that an attack on one Ally would be considered an attack on the whole Alliance.
kit wrote: Currently NATO is forward deployed. US in Poland, Canada in Lithuania, latvia and Estonia has also nato presence.
For details of the deployment, please see
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014 ... efp_en.pdf
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Lisa »

Eklavyaji,

You need to try and understand why NATO is complaining about Russian deployments in its own territory when they actual forced CFE into abeyance. If CFE was still in force Russia could not have made its current deployments and NATO's decision, to permit their own operational flexibility, has got NATO into this situation.

Russia was asked to explain deployments into the NCMD in detail despite the Chechen war but when it suited NATO, they threw CFE into the bin as it no longer severed their purposes. Its so strange that there has not been so much as ONE journalist who is willing to bring this matter up. Very, very strange.

P.S. Same with ABM, START 3, INF..............
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by eklavya »

Lisaji, your point is well made. But it doesn’t explain how invading Ukraine solves anything for Russia. It won’t enhance their security and could well ruin their economy. Their politics will also go the N Korean way. All downside.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Roop »

eklavya wrote:But it doesn’t explain how invading Ukraine solves anything for Russia. It won’t enhance their security and could well ruin their economy. Their politics will also go the N Korean way. All downside.
Which is exactly why this cockamamie theory (peddled in the US/UK) of "Russia will invade! Russia will invade!" is so poisonous.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Dilbu »

Russia will not invade Ukraine but it will create another threat for US close to its borders or a similar costly distraction for NATO elsewhere. Any action now on Ukraine front is only going to cost Russia more. Putin will either negotiate to settle or create another pain point.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Lisa »

For those who may have forgotten,

Monroe Doctrine

"The Monroe Doctrine was a United States foreign policy position that opposed European colonialism in the Western Hemisphere. It held that any intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by foreign powers was a potentially hostile act against the U.S. The doctrine was central to U.S. foreign policy for much of the 19th and early 20th centuries."

but Ukraine is too far from Russia for Russia to have ANY security concerns!

I need to urgently change my Pot seller.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Putin-s ... -alliances
Putin's Indo-Pacific play rattles existing regional alliances
Recent military exercises with ASEAN a Russian foreign policy milestone


Danil Bochkov
December 20, 2021 17:00 JST

Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Narendra Modi ahead of their meeting in New Delhi on Dec. 6:
India is more interested in broadening its multilateral foreign policy vision rather than siding with particular groups. © Reuters
Danil Bochkov is a fellow at the Russian International Affairs Council in Moscow.

What was believed to be a precursor for de-escalation, the video summit between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden has, in fact, left more uncertainties about deteriorating relations between Moscow and the West.

Several days after the talks, President Biden warned Russia of more severe sanctions should it act recklessly on Ukraine -- a caveat that actually signifies less room for further dialogue.


Facing mounting pressure from the West, Russia has instead turned toward reinforcing its position in the East. More precisely, Moscow is eyeing a strengthening of ties with its Indo-Pacific partners, mostly China. But there are also signs of Moscow's more active embrace of India and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Moscow and Beijing have both been identified as national security threats by the U.S. and a combined challenge for NATO.

In response, Russia and China starkly upgraded their military cooperation this year with a string of joint exercises and patrols taking place on land, in the air and at sea, which culminated with the signing of a road map for closer military ties until 2025.

Moscow's long-term diplomatic enthusiasm for its other foreign policy priority, India, was reemphasized with the recent summit in New Delhi between Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi.



That rendezvous was only the second time that Putin has left Russia since the onset of the COVID pandemic and while the timing may be coincidental. The Russian president's India trip came before his video summit with Biden.

In Delhi, Putin hailed India as "a time-tested friend," adding that military cooperation with India was "like with no other country."


The main issues discussed between the two leaders related to cooperation surrounding security and energy, with Russia set to prioritize both areas as the cornerstones of its regional penetration, as has been shown by other recent diplomatic forays into Asia.

The most significant outcome of the Putin-Modi summit was the highly touted multimillion contract for the joint production of AK-203 assault rifles. This follows an earlier agreement to initialize S-400 surface-to-air missile systems worth $5 billion signed in 2018, despite strong opposition from Washington.

Not only is Moscow is willing to expand the number of its armaments made in India -- the production of Russian Kamov 226T helicopters is due to start soon -- but the local manufacture of its Sputnik V COVID vaccine production is already in progress.

New Delhi's eagerness to purchase Russian arms, including the possibility of buying brand-new S-500 missile systems in the future, notwithstanding the displeasure of its major defense partners within the QUAD, the four-nation security dialogue involving the U.S., Japan and Australia, speaks volumes as to the deepening strategic interaction between Russia and India.

The warm display of conviviality between Putin and Modi proves that India is more interested in broadening its multilateral foreign policy vision rather than siding with particular groups. This makes India the weak link in any anti-Russia-China alliances.

India's diversified diplomacy is further exemplified by its absence from the recent U.S-Japan-Australia trilateral initiative to fund an undersea cable project in the Indo-Pacific to offset China's growing influence.

Another bedrock of Moscow's Indo-Pacific flank is ASEAN.

Earlier this year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov highlighted that "Russia is committed to strengthening" ASEAN centrality. This was further reinforced during the 4th ASEAN-Russia Summit on Oct. 28, when President Putin himself specifically emphasized that the facilitation of contacts with ASEAN has "always been... one of the Russian foreign policy priorities."

Russia has been keen on deepening ties with ASEAN ever since Putin prioritized the advanced development of its Far Eastern corner as "Russia's top priority." Vladivostok, the eastern capital, now has strong air connections with Singapore and some other ASEAN states, which may facilitate greater investment and economic cooperation.


A majority of ASEAN's 10 member-states have been lobbying for a free trade agreement with Russia since 2019, after Russia and ASEAN effectively upgraded their dialogue to the strategic level in 2018 and launched a successful annual business dialogue in 2017.

The penny finally seems to have dropped in Washington that Moscow is earnestly seeking to boost its ties with Southeast Asia to counter other regional alliances. ASEAN has now become an important diplomatic battleground, with the U.S., China and Russia all vying for attention.

In November, Beijing wrapped up its anniversary summit with ASEAN, while three weeks later, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarked on his first trip through the region in a bid to secure U.S. strategic interests and elevate ties with the ASEAN to "unprecedented" levels.

In fact, Russia and the U.S. have come to play in a power game over ASEAN, with Indonesia's President Joko Widodo hosting the head of the powerful Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, hot on the heels of his meeting with Blinken.

Moscow is also expanding its regional diplomatic profile by highlighting the importance of interstate cooperation on security matters. Russia's main instruments for that have routinely been through regular military engagements with China.

However, in a sign of its deeper penetration into the region's security agenda, Moscow and ASEAN conducted their first joint naval maneuvers earlier this month.

This development is a true milestone for Russia's military relations, not only with key regional actors but other countries around the world since Russia has never before participated in multilateral military drills with allied blocks outside its own Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and before 2014, with the NATO under the auspices of the NATO-Russia Council.
Basically great power politics is resumed.
US
Russia+ China

Others:
India
ASEAN
France
Germany
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by srin »

By driving Russia against the wall and into the waiting arms of Chinese, it is the West that has created this Russia+China combo. On its own, Russia would rather be with the West than with the Chinese. I don't think that a powerful China is in Russian interests, given the long shared border and history of hostilities.

To me, the NATO expansion in Europe and the subsequent disturbances in UKR seems to be a Chinese intelligence operation to ensure division between Russia and the West
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

Actually, FSU's existence prevented the Mackinder nightmare of Eurasia world Island.
The Soviet Union and PRC did not combine due to Stalin and Mao.
Once FSU collapsed all it needed was a new Tsar.
Every Tsar reaches out to create the world silandd.

Please re-read Mackinder's Essay on Geopolitics.
And added to this we have an incompetent US President withdrawing like Rome in Western Europe in 404 AD.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

Interview with historian Norman Davies. Has a lot of bearing on Eastern Europe fracturing now.

https://www.eesc.europa.eu/en/news-medi ... cles/89702
Norman Davies: Things that don't hold together will fall apart
20/05/2021

Newsletter: EESC info June 2021

"All my life, I have been intrigued by the gap between appearances and reality. Things are never quite as they seem", Norman Davies.

EESC info: Europe is at a turning point, preparing the Conference on the Future of Europe. In the course of the changes that have taken place in parallel with the pandemic crisis, some centrifugal forces have come to light, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, which may challenge European integration. How would you comment on this?

Norman Davis: As a historian, I should start by saying we are always at a turning point. There is always something changing, moving in different directions than one had thought. Actually, among the changes happening in western Europe in the last five years, the departure of the UK from the Union is the biggest. And in my view, the UK is disintegrating. I think there soon won't be a UK; something else will take its place. As for central Europe, we had no idea that a substantial part of the population was dissatisfied with the changes after 1989, and, of course, we had no name for that dissatisfaction. We hadn't heard of populism at that time. Furthermore, we didn't realize that things that started happening in Poland had parallels in other countries. There was no President Trump, no danger of Brexit at that time. Now we know we were wrong. These populist trends have parallels in many countries. The European Union itself, and international stability in general, are very much in question at the present time.

On the issue of centrifugal forces within the EU, I would say that those forces, which undoubtedly exist, are not located exclusively around Hungary and Poland; they can also be found in the heart of the eurozone, pulling the richer countries of northern Europe away from the more fragile economies of the South.

EESC info: We are talking about the Conference on the Future of Europe. In your view, what should be the most important element of the EU's work?

N.D: The most important element is the culture of cooperation, which opposes the older idea that individual nations are allowed to follow, as the French once called it, their "égoisme sacré", the sacred selfishness of individual countries, which was once the norm. World War II showed that the right to behave selfishly, and to pursue one's "national interests" regardless, was (and still is) destructive to all; the culture of cooperation, as opposed to national egoism, is the most precious achievement of the European community. It is quite clear that some of the governments and groups want to return to the pursuit of their national interests. But I am deeply convinced they are mistaken. If I may use an old English phrase, "if we don't hang together, we'll all hang separately". And this is the clue to the survival of the EU movement and of the long peace we have enjoyed.

EESC info: President François Mitterrand and Chancellor Helmut Kohl are well-known as two of history's major political figures. In your view, are there a couple of similar countries that could lead the way against national egoism? Who can be a leader in the EU?

N.D: No, I think that the leadership in the EU has been weak, we have seen that with the pandemic, which has not been well-managed in Europe. Franco-German leadership may have been essential at the beginning of the European movement 50 years ago. In the Europe of the Six, France and Germany were by far the largest members – if that's not too hard on Italy – and it was natural that France and Germany, who led the process of post-war reconciliation, should have provided the initial drive for the project. But that it is no longer the case. There are 27 members now, and a need for greater cohesion. Hopefully, leadership will emerge from different sources and not be merely Franco-German. There are good reasons for that.

France is one of the countries most threatened by populism. Marine Le Pen is on the march and Mr. Macron is not very strong politically. It's unlikely that France will be able to take the lead. Similarly, Germany is in considerable turmoil with the departure of Angela Merkel. Europe must find effective leadership elsewhere very soon. Otherwise, the future will be a scene from a talk show rather than an action programme.

EESC info: What is your opinion of civil society's role in the debate on the Future of Europe? On 19 April 2021, the European Commission and the European Parliament launched a platform for citizens asking them to send their questions about their dreams on the future of Europe. What role do you think citizens can play in this debate?

N.D: Obviously society has a role to play, but society generates thousands of different opinions and cannot ever produce effective action on its own. Society has to be led by political leaders, who understand people's fears and aspirations, but in the absence of this leadership society itself falls victim to charlatans and extremists. Clearly, it is a good thing to solicit citizens' views but the political game demands more. Society has to be inspired and mobilised by dynamic leaders, parties, movements and of course good ideas.

EESC info: What is your view on the possible results of the Conference on the Future of Europe? Any prospects for progress during the French Presidency? Do you remember what happened after the 2002-2003 European Convention chaired by President Giscard d'Estaing, which produced a European Constitution only to see France and the Netherlands vote "No" in 2005?

N.D: I am a historian, not an astrologist. I can't tell you what will happen in the future but in general, conferences are not decision-making bodies, unless they are executive conferences like Yalta or Potsdam, which made important international decisions. What most conferences can do is to set the mood, set the political climate, the atmosphere, encouraging or discouraging the participants. Hopefully, a good conference will improve the mood and encourage leaders to engage in action. But in themselves they rarely do.

Yes, I remember Mr Giscard d'Estaing well. (He came from a village in Auvergne where I had some good friends.) But can the failure of the EU Constitution be blamed on the Convention? There was more to it than that. Someone did not do their homework.

EESC info: 1 May was the 17th anniversary of the EU enlargement, 10 new Member States joined the EU followed by three others later on. Seventeen years after this accession what is your view on this development?

N.D: The great enlargement carried many high hopes, namely that peace and prosperity – which western Europe had been blessed with for the previous 30-40 years – would spread to the other end of the continent, and in many ways this has been true. And it is very hard to believe that some countries which voted for enlargement, for joining the EU with massive support from the population, today have governments with completely the opposite beliefs. I talked earlier about the culture of cooperation as opposed to national egoism, but this lesson has not been learned by everyone.

EESC info: As a British citizen, you are now living in a third country, what lessons can Europe learn from Brexit?

N.D: I wish I knew. In my view Brexit was a terrible mistake, and will probably destroy the country in which I was born. Incidentally, I am also a Polish citizen, and my wife is Polish. We have a foot in both camps. As I always tell my Polish friends, the situation in Poland might be bad, but it is not as threatening as in Great Britain. Poland is not going to disintegrate any time soon, but the UK will probably do. I had an online lecture a couple of days ago for an audience in the city of Armagh in Northern Ireland, and the trajectory is quite clear; the trend in Northern Ireland is moving towards joining the Republic. Brexit destroyed the union with the EU, but it is also destroying England's union with Northern Ireland and Scotland, and in due course with Wales. Brexit was driven from the start by selfish English nationalism, and will end up producing a poorer, weaker England, stripped of the support of other neighbour nations on our Isles. Things that don't hold together will fall apart. My view is that all these populist movements are, as one says, "sawing off the branch of the tree on which they are sitting", preparing a disaster for themselves. As yet, I can't see which way things are moving in the EU, except to say that it has lots of problems. Prior to Brexit, there was a race on between the UK and the EU, "which one will collapse first". After Brexit, I know that the UK is winning that miserable race: the EU is not likely to collapse before the UK does. Sitting on this island I have feelings of envy that Europe's problems are less acute than ours.

EESC info: Can we follow how President Joe Biden is handling rapid changes and reforms in the United States. Do you think it might have consequences for the EU?

N.D: Well, yes. The defeat of Donald Trump was the biggest blow that populism has received in the last ten years. Trump was the global leader of the populists; he enjoyed the adoration of certain regimes in Europe, admiring the way he defined and vilified the existing order; and he lost. Biden has come in and he is doing surprisingly well. Time is short, and it is difficult to know whether he is going to succeed in a major way or not. I wish him "a fair wind". As you know the western world, Europe plus North America, constitutes one political and civilisational block, and the USA is the biggest and strongest country in that block. What happens in America affects all of us.

{Biden is leading the wokeness malaise in US. It will spread to rest of the Western block}

EEESC info: My last question, what are you preparing now? Maybe a new book?

N.D: I am always preparing a new book. I can mention two. One will be published in a few days' time by Penguin Books in London; it is a biography of King George II, a "continental history" of a British monarch, who reigned from 1727-60 and whom I call "George Augustus". He was the sovereign ruler of a composite state made up of three parts, the Kingdom of Great Britain, the Kingdom of Ireland, and the Electorate of Braunschweig-Lüneburg, known as Hanover, in Germany. He was an important Prince-Elector of the Holy Roman Empire, as well as being a British king, and he ruled for many years in the period when Britain became both the world's top naval power and the chief promoter of the slave trade. Most British people are unfamiliar with the idea that a British monarch could simultaneously be the ruler of continental state. So I have written a short book which should be quite a bombshell.

Now that George Augustus is off my hands, I am completing a history of Austro-Hungarian Galicia – one of those "vanished kingdoms", which no longer exist. Galicia, whose territory lies today partly in Poland and partly in Ukraine, was inhabited before 1918 by three large communities of Poles, Ukrainians and Jews. But, since it was broken up, its memory has been distorted by national prejudices. The Poles write about it as if it was Polish, the Ukrainians as if it was primarily Ukrainian, and Jewish historians sometimes give the impression that Galicia was a separate Jewish planet. In my view, historical Galicia can only be accurately imagined and reconstructed by combining all three elements within the Austrian context, and I try to achieve the desired effect by making copious use of contemporary records and memoirs.

EESC info: Thank you very much

N.D: Thank you very much, too! Very enjoyable!
Many of his comments and trends can be applied to the greater Indian sub-continent.
kit
BRF Oldie
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Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

Just a reminder to oneself of what damage the Britshits did to Hindustan !!


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