Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

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srikandan
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by srikandan »

Brazil to sign FTA with EU before Trade negotiations with China

The post-WWII agencies like UN, WTO, etc. all seem to be dying a silent death with all countries not even considering the UN a forum worth their time.


South Asian economies with a common currency seems like a means of having all countries that refuse to take sides in the EU/US<->russia conflict to be able to do trade with countries on both sides of the wall.

added later: the other alternative is that Toolkit Lula's Brazil is there to play spoiler to ensure BRICS goes around in circles. It should not matter as GOI seems to be operating on bilateral agreements.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chetak »

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sanjaykumar
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by sanjaykumar »

I am troubled by the Economist’s equivalence of the IMF and Allah as divinity. This is shirk and blasphemy.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chanakyaa »

Brazil and Argentina is renewing the old concept of common currency or "trading currency" with Argentina, while keeping their national currencies. This concept has been around 1980s, but the renewed enthusiasm is coming up with something to be tied to hard assets. This is interesting because BRICS+ is trying to achieve something similar this year, so not sure where Lula's efforts fit.

Lula floats shared 'trading currency' during Argentina trip
Brazil and Argentina are in early talks to establish a shared unit of value for bilateral trade to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Monday, though the move is not aimed at replacing existing currencies.
...
Brazil's government would offer guarantees to banks that helped provide financing, while Argentina, a major grains exporter, would have to provide collateral via hard assets like grains, gas or oil.
...
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

^^^
A good analysis of this

chetak
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chetak »

x posted from the political thread


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m88pthDfNk



BBC Modi Documentary, G20, Economy, Pakistan: Western Media's Bias Against India Exposed | Homeland







'Anti-India propaganda' - Why is the foreign press facing anger in India?

Amid furore over BBC docu-series, a look at international reports on India shows how West views India with a coloured glass.

Be it G20 presidency, economy, or Pakistan, @poojashali exposes Western media bias against India.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by drnayar »

srikandan wrote:Brazil to sign FTA with EU before Trade negotiations with China

The post-WWII agencies like UN, WTO, etc. all seem to be dying a silent death with all countries not even considering the UN a forum worth their time.


South Asian economies with a common currency seems like a means of having all countries that refuse to take sides in the EU/US<->russia conflict to be able to do trade with countries on both sides of the wall.

added later: the other alternative is that Toolkit Lula's Brazil is there to play spoiler to ensure BRICS goes around in circles. It should not matter as GOI seems to be operating on bilateral agreements.
the way things are going., continental "blocs" could come up with a shared need for security and prosperity. North America achieved this early on and achieved this to some extent, Europe had good potential, Brexit and now Ukraine killed it off.

India is big enough and all other states in South Asia could join it for collective security and prosperity. China would make inroads into central Asia along those same lines, south east Asia would remain fragmented with an identity crisis.

Africa and west Asia again tied up in timeless meaningless conflicts.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by NRao »

chetak
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chetak »

we need to be thankful to US and EU for this

like someone said, there's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip'


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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chetak »

WA
Warren Buffett said: “If you've been in a poker game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.”

This war is almost a year old but the Germans have still not realized that they are the patsy

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Dilbu »

France-India-UAE Trilateral: India’s Minilateral Engagements Ticks Up
In the beginning of February, France, India, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) came together to announce a new trilateral partnership to work on a number of areas including defense, technology and energy. The three foreign ministers — Catherine Colonna of France, S. Jaishankar of India, and Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the UAE — met for the first time in a trilateral format in September last year on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York. The February 4 phone call involving the three foreign ministers was a follow up to “adopt a roadmap for implementation” of their trilateral initiative.

Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar tweeted after the call: “Productive conversation with colleagues, French FM @MinColonna and UAE FM @ABZayed today evening. Took forward discussions of New York on building practical projects that will benefit the region.” The minister added that the three discussed “convergences and further collaboration in education, business, maritime, culture and green energy for a stable peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific.”
The three partners are looking to hold a series of events during India’s G-20 presidency and the UAE’s scheduled hosting of COP 28 in 2023, where many of their common agendas can be pushed further. The three countries are also planning to expand their cooperative agenda using existing platforms and initiatives like the Mangrove Alliance for Climate led by the UAE and the Indo-Pacific Parks Partnership led by India and France.

The three countries identified defense as a core area for building closer cooperation and accordingly, France, India, and the UAE are making efforts “to further promote compatibility, and joint development and co-production, whilst seeking out avenues for further collaboration and training between the three countries’ defense forces.” Both India and the UAE have purchased the French Rafale fighters, making them ideal partners in furthering the defense agenda.

France’s first military base in the Gulf is located in Abu Dhabi, yet another dimension of the security focus in some of these emerging partnerships. The military base is situated on the strategically significant Strait of Hormuz, between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf.
India’s relationships with these two countries have progressed through bilateral and minilateral initiatives. India and the UAE are also part of the Middle East Quad, the I2U2 grouping that includes India, Israel, the UAE, and the United States. This Middle East Quad has a big focus on economic and technology partnership while building on areas such as water, transportation, and clean energy.

Given the strong commitment of France, India, and the UAE as well as the material wherewithal of the three partners, the trilateral partnership has the potential to emerge as an action-oriented minilateral in the broader Indo-Pacific. The three countries are likely to have an equal focus on some of the hard security issues while pursuing an agenda that will also be consequential for much of the Global South. India-France partnership has also been seen as a good framework for East-West cooperation.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

France has extensive maritime territories around tiny islands in the indopacific which it cannot really exploit for a variety of reasons or even defend. France needs India's support in the region which India has been providing since decades and this is one major reason why the relationship is so strong. This trilateral is another way to get a bit closer to the theatre because it can't get into the QUAD. UAE needs the shipping routes to be tranquil and has lots of business dealings with France and India.
If Egypt and Israel are included in such a partnership, it will cover a vast zone from Gibraltar to Malacca - the most profitable maritime trade route in history.
But one step at a time... :)
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

Raja Mohan eager to give credit to everyone except India? Apart from giving loans I've not seen Japan play any purposeful diplomatic role in the global South. They didn't make any real effort for vaccines or food, fuel, fertilisers or even the easiest plank "climate justice" etc. I doubt if global South nations see Japan as capable of understanding their situations given how different Japanese economy and society are from the rest. They may actually see Japan as the "soft and non-threatening" face of G7 trying to claw back lost credibility. For the very same reasons India's lead is appreciated by them.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

Foreign Affairs worries about Uk breaking up.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/d ... tan-otoole
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

When Ukraine Russian war started I said it is about Germany. Here is a French scholar saying the same thing:

https://bharatabharati.in/2023/02/12/em ... g-altwegg/

Emmanuel Todd comments on the Russian-Ukrainian war – Jürg Altwegg
Posted on Feb 12, 2023 by VOI
Dr. Emmanuel Todd

De Weltwoche: French historian Emmanuel Todd predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union. Today he sees the United States in decline. France is laughed at and the British act headlessly. Worst of all are the Germans, who have become targets for the Americans. Russia, on the other hand, is doing better than many Western observers would like to think. – Jürg Altwegg

Weltwoche: Thank you, cher Emmanuel, for agreeing to this interview. You haven’t spoken out in public lately.

Emmanuel Todd: I was in Japan where a book of mine was published. It is a bestseller that does not have an original French edition. Its subject is the war in Ukraine. In France, I didn’t get involved in the debates. I’m giving you the first interview because you write in German. This war is about Germany.

Weltwoche: Before we talk about the Ukraine war, I am interested in your assessment of a piece of news that was recently circulating: The world population has passed the eight billion mark. What does the demographer say about this number?

Todd: It doesn’t scare me. What is worrying is that birth rates are declining in all developed countries. In Germany and Japan they have long been below average: 1.4 and 1.5 children per woman. This is not enough for the renewal of the population. Now the other countries have also fallen back to this level. In the US, a woman had two children, now there are 1.6; in China 1.3.

Weltwoche: At the same time, the world population is growing.

Todd: We have a difficult time with maybe ten billion people ahead of us. But it won’t last long. The demographic depression is really serious. Taiwan and Korea produce most of the semiconductors in the world. In South Korea, women give birth to 0.8 children. In the most productive industrialized countries, working people are collapsing. In China, the factory of the world, the workforce will decline by 35 percent over the next twenty years. This is one of the reasons for inflation.

Weltwoche: And the population explosion in Africa?

Todd: Maybe before long people will be very happy that there is an African workforce.

Weltwoche: In 1976 you predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union due to demographic developments. What role does demographics play in the war in Ukraine?

Todd: As in the first two world wars, it’s about the balance between the great powers. The difference: Back then we were dealing with a demographic expansion, today with a depression. For a century the population had increased: by 110 percent in Britain, 160 percent in Germany, 166 percent in Russia and 525 percent in the USA. In France, growth was limited to 16 percent. The country was a leader in the automobile, aircraft, film and nuclear industries.

Weltwoche: What was your certainty that the Soviet Union would collapse based on?

Todd: The increase in infant mortality. I was 25 then. Today I use the same parameters. When Putin came to power, child mortality fell rapidly. Today, infant mortality in the United States is higher than in Russia. Not Russia—America is in crisis.

Weltwoche: You described this decline in 2002 in “World Power USA: An Obituary”.

Todd: It’s confirmed. The US withdrew from Afghanistan and Iraq. They could not stop the rise of Iran. Just as little as that of China. The Saudis no longer take the US seriously. In America, mortality is rising and life expectancy is falling. All the newspapers write: The West is normal and Putin is insane. The Russians are bloodthirsty monsters. Demographics say otherwise: Russia has become more stable and its society more civilized. What is happening in Russia is perfectly clear to me. I understand Putin’s thoughts and actions and can explain it in three minutes. The Russians are brutal and rational, even their lies are quasi-reasonable. I am well aware that I think and feel completely differently than my contemporaries. That’s why I didn’t say anything more.

Weltwoche: A few days ago, when you also wanted to cancel this interview, you spoke quite desperately about “Western irrationality”.

Todd: The behavior of the West is a complete mystery to me. I was only able to understand the implosion of the Soviet Union at the time because I am an avid reader of science fiction novels. Now, in this war, it seems to me like in Philip K. Dick’s “Ubik”: You never know where you are. The newspapers tell us how the Russians are shooting at prisons they have occupied. That they shoot at nuclear power plants that they control locally. That they blow up pipelines that they built themselves.

Weltwoche: Who is responsible for the Nord Stream sabotage?

Todd: Of course the Americans. But that is completely unimportant. It is normal. The important question is: How can a society believe that it could have been the Russians? We are dealing here with an inversion of possible reality. That’s a lot worse. The study of such a society is fascinating. I’m writing a book about it now. It will be my last. My work as an author began with the essay on the collapse of the Soviet Union. I want to close it with a work of reason on the third world war. I reject the prevailing loss of reality, from which Europeans in particular suffer, and I want to try to understand it. One of my hypotheses is the collapse of the Protestant world.

Weltwoche: The loss of reality distinguishes Europe from the Russians?

Todd: Also from the Americans, who know very well what they are doing. Their idea of ​​power is clear and cynical. In order to assert their interests, they have repeatedly waged wars—also instigated them. You can very well understand Putin. The Russians also talk about power relations, but their language is defensive. The Europeans rant about peace and the spread of their humanistic values ​​without an army. They have lost geopolitical thinking. Between the offensive strategy of the Americans and the defensive strategy of the Russians, the Europeans are in a breathtaking state of mental confusion. This applies particularly to Germany.

Weltwoche: How do you explain their confusion? Feeling guilty and trying to be on the good side in this third world war?

Todd: No! Not at all. I have a lot of sympathy for the Germans. France plays no role in this war. Its weight is zero. Macron talks, Macron travels—everyone laughs at Macron. He’s not the worst, because he’s far from the most anti-Russian. Germany is a country that has renounced war. A country with practically no army. Bearing so few children that its chief concern is to bring in labor to sustain its industry. It was in the same position as Japan. But Japan made a different choice. Japan doesn’t want immigrants, Japan wants to stay Japan. For this, it was willing to lose a lot of power and outsource its industry to China. Germany, on the other hand, has maintained its industry. It only cares about the economy. Its logic was: Russia supplies gas, our two countries are complementary. And since 1945, America has kept us safe in a world we no longer want to be a threat to. The Nord Stream project arose from this thoroughly rational consideration. The aim was to avoid taxes imposed by Ukraine and Poland. Germany’s tragedy is that it still believed it was protected by the United States.

Weltwoche: And that is no longer the case?

Todd: After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Zbigniew Brzezinski described Eurasia as the new “great chessboard” of world politics in “The Only World Power”. Indeed, Russian nationalists and ideologues like Alexander Dugin dream of Eurasia. It is on this “chessboard” that America must defend its supremacy—that is Brzezinski’s doctrine. So prevent the rapprochement of Russia and China. The financial crisis of 2008 made it clear that with reunification Germany became the leading power in Europe and thus also a rival of the USA. Until 1989 it was politically a dwarf. Now Berlin showed its willingness to get involved with the Russians. Combating this rapprochement became a priority of American strategy. That they wanted to torpedo the gas deal the US had always said clearly. The expansion of NATO in Eastern Europe was not primarily directed against Russia, but against Germany. Germany, which had entrusted its security to America, became a target for the Americans. I feel a lot of sympathy for Germany. It suffers from that trauma of betrayal by the protective friend—who was also a liberator in 1945.

Weltwoche: And Putin had no choice but to invade Ukraine!?

Todd: The West provoked Russia. The American political scientist John Mearsheimer soberly stated that the cooperation of the British and Americans with his army made Ukraine a de facto member of NATO. She was upgraded to attack Russia. Putin’s attack was a defensive invasion. He had announced this reaction and threatened war.

Weltwoche: And that’s how it happened?

Todd: Mearsheimer argued that Ukraine was of vital importance to Russia. He considered Putin’s victory a certainty. But he also thought that the US would give up Ukraine. On this second point he was wrong. This war is also of existential importance for them: If Russia wins, the imperial system of the United States will collapse. Its debt is phenomenal. To maintain its prosperity, the United States depends on the tribute of other countries.

Weltwoche: But was Ukraine really planning an attack on Russia?

Todd: It was in preparation. Along with America, Great Britain and Poland, Ukraine wanted the Russian—really Russian!—territories in Donbass. Crimea too.

Weltwoche: The Donbass and Crimea were part of the sovereign state of Ukraine.

Todd: Let me finish.

Weltwoche: Please! We come back to the question.

Todd: I feel sorry for Ukraine, it’s terrible what is being done to her. She was never really the problem. In the beginning it was about thwarting European reunification under German hegemony. The geostrategic relations prove it. The truth of NATO is this: It consists of the Washington-London-Warsaw-Kyiv axis. Germany and France are their junior partners, their dominant position in Europe is over. The Poles and the Ukrainians constantly abuse and insult the Germans. For them it is unbearable. The power that professed to protect them left no stone unturned to crush Germany’s dominant position in Europe. Germany is in a situation that overwhelms it from a cognitive point of view.

Weltwoche: What do you mean?

Todd: The Germans didn’t want to go to war. Scholz, who seems to me to be a very sensible person, was criticized for not wanting to get involved. War is horrid, hideous, disgusting, awful. The Germans know only too well that Nord Stream was destroyed by the Americans. Through a joint military action by the Americans, British and Poles. Against Germany. But they can’t tell. In fact, the Germans were attacked by the Americans. They wanted to decouple them from Russian gas. After all, Germany has not completely capitulated: Scholz traveled to Beijing. Germany refuses to cut off the cord from China.

Weltwoche: That sounds pretty crazy.

Todd: This is the only way—rationally—to understand the bizarre and contradictory behaviors in this war. On the one hand, the merger of the Chinese and German economies makes sense. And because China will remain a long-term ally of the Russians, it also means that Germany is not fully absorbed into the Western camp. At the same time, this provocative trip to China is compensated by the recognition of the Holodomor as a genocide. That’s grotesque. In the context of the beginning of a third world war, the German parliament wants to determine what constitutes genocide and what does not. The Germans are not aware of the consequences of this step. They put the Holodomor—which, incidentally, claimed proportionately fewer lives than the Great Famine in Ireland—on a par with the Shoah. With a bit of spite, one could describe the vote in the Bundestag as anti-Semitic. That it puts Auschwitz into perspective. In this war one has the impression that the world wants to drive Germany insane.

Weltwoche: We meant this delusion when we said that this time Germany feels on the good side: It got into this state without any external compulsion. As compensation for his historical guilt.

Todd: No. No! Of course there is a shared responsibility. But this war is about interests that wars have always been fought to promote: gas, claims to power, territories.

Weltwoche: The West—Europe—speaks of freedom, democracy, human rights, which would be defended in Ukraine, and compares Putin with Hitler. Putin says he is fighting to denazify Ukraine. He sees neo-Nazis at work there, who seized power in 2014 and have been committing genocide against the Russians in the east of the country ever since. In every war speech he taunts the decline of Western LGBT civilization. That’s not particularly rational either.

Todd: The way in which LGBT issues have meddled with the rhetorical warfare is indeed quite remarkable. The West accuses Russians of homophobia, and the Duma responds with even stricter laws against LGBT propaganda. On this front, the rupture between the West and the rest of the world is clearly visible. The latter is indifferent to Western values ​​and its democracy, he protests against his moral lessons. The war in Ukraine doesn’t interest him. One can also explain this ditch with anthropological arguments. In the West, bilateral kinship systems are dominant: the fathers’ and mothers’ sides are equally important. The dominant way of life is the small family, individualism characterizes society. In the rest of the world, the culture of patrilinearity prevails: the social status of the child depends solely on the father. So it is in Russia, China, in the Arab world and in Africa. This is perhaps the most dangerous aspect of this war: beneath the discourse of values ​​there is a different anthropological consciousness. The two worlds cannot understand and agree on the LGBT issue.

Weltwoche: Does that mean that the moral assessment of this war leads to hopelessness?

Todd: I do not underestimate the importance of morality. I hate war. I didn’t want to comment on it because I don’t feel particularly competent or even called to preach ethical values. However, I wish the Germans would understand: The side of the good they want to be on this time is not that of the United States. The good means: end this war. But as a historian I analyze it without sentimentality. And that begs the question: Who will win?

Weltwoche: And, in your opinion?

Todd: It’s always the same with world wars: it turns out completely differently than you think. When the First World War broke out, everyone was convinced that it would be over very quickly. In 1940, the Maginot Line was considered insurmountable and France’s army the strongest in the world. This time the idea of ​​the overpowering Russians prevailed. Completely unexpectedly, the Ukrainian army withstood the attack—thanks to the support. The sanctions were imposed in the belief that they would bring Russia to its knees. But its economy has not collapsed. Nobody can explain that. The gross national product of Russia—including Belarus—is 3.3 percent of the total gross national product of the West. The ruble has appreciated 23 percent against the dollar since the outbreak of war, and 36 percent against the euro. In the meantime, the question no longer arises as to whether the Russian economy can resist the European one. That’s why I talk so little about Ukraine.

Weltwoche: We experienced the Holodomor and the Holocaust. Now it is the scene of World War III.

Todd: Forget that. I am well aware of the price Ukraine is paying. The destruction of the country. The dead and injured. Life in war is terrible. It is increasingly a war of attrition, a war of attrition in which military and industrial might converge. Especially with regard to the industrial potency of the opponents, we had completely wrong ideas. Although a sober analysis would have forced a different assessment. After World War II, the United States accounted for 45 percent of world industrial production. In the meantime, it is still a maximum of 27 percent. In the field of mechanical engineering, China is the leader with 29 percent. Germany and Japan follow with around 15 percent each. Italy and the USA compete for fourth place with 7 percent each.

Weltwoche: What about the industrial strength and reserves of the Russians?

Todd: Both sides are using less and less sophisticated weapons, there’s no telling which side will give up first. The war made the Americans aware of the fundamental problem: they lack engineers. In the US, 7 percent of students are trained to be engineers. In Russia it is 25 percent.

Weltwoche: At a comparable intellectual level?

Todd: It is undoubtedly higher in Russia. Americans compensate for their deficit with immigration. Half of American scientists and engineers were born outside the country. These are mainly Indians and Chinese. One can calculate what will happen if China bans the emigration of its students. The arms industry depends on engineers. Even a modern army consists of engineers. I have read Putin’s texts. He knows about the weakness of the Americans and deindustrialization. He is aware that their economy is partly based on fictitious values ​​and that they owe their prosperity to the printing press. That’s why he dared to attack her. I have no idea what the current balance of power is. NATO is in the process of using up its reserves. Russia as well. Despite its ridiculously small gross national product, it is able to stand up to the Americans. The West has completely underestimated the Russians, their intellectual deficit is appalling.

Weltwoche: Putin and the Russians are smarter?

Todd: There strategy relies on the longue durée of America’s decline. America compensates by putting pressure on its old protectorates. Control of Europe—especially Germany—and Japan has become his priority. At a joint press conference, Chirac, Schröder and Putin protested against their war in Iraq. Since then, America has achieved what in German is called the “Gleichschaltung” of Europe. But the rest of the world sticks with Russia. When it was Communist, it spread fear and terror. It was atheist, imperialist. Today, Russia represents a conservative worldview and defends the sovereignty of peoples and nations, all of which have the right to exist.

Weltwoche: Except Ukraine. Putin not only denied her this right. He has almost negated their existence.

Todd: Putin had demanded that the language be respected in the Russian-speaking areas. And he didn’t want Ukraine to join NATO. This war could have been avoided.

Weltwoche: Quite simply: Nobody forced Putin to attack.

Todd: Germany and France share responsibility. They were constantly in Kyiv. Europe dreamed of expanding eastward into Ukraine. The Russian reaction triggered the military build-up, training and “advising” of the Ukrainian army. If NATO had refrained from making Ukraine part of its military posture, this war would not have happened.

Weltwoche: All this happened with Ukraine’s consent, and no one forced Putin to fall into the trap of this provocation.

Todd: Donetsk is a hundred kilometers from the Russian border. The distance to Washington is 8,400 kilometers. The war is taking place on the border of Russia. This is another reason why it is a defensive war. I do not question Ukraine’s right to exist. And as an anthropologist, I have good arguments to support their existence: family structures in Ukraine are much closer to the liberal and individualistic tradition of Europe than to the patriarchal, authoritarian system of Russia.

Weltwoche: What do demographics say about Ukraine?

Todd: There hasn’t been a census since 2001. The population is rapidly declining. Which regions are affected, who emigrated, who stayed? One does not know. Today the country is glorified as a budding democracy. At the beginning of the war it was a failed state and totally corrupt. Ukraine is financed from outside, it is no longer a classic state. The little I know—the country is capable of waging war. But I have no idea how. Once liberated, it refused to relinquish control of the Russian territories. This is a behavior, this case occurred several times between the world wars. Ukraine’s claim that it wants to keep two relatively small regions against its will and that of its ten times more powerful neighbor Russia is not reasonable. It’s absurd. Russia demanded guarantees for its security. And it demanded for the Russian populations of Donbass and Crimea, which are truly Russian, a life that respects their cultural autonomy. This war should not have broken out. Like all wars.

Weltwoche: And now it’s a world war.

Todd: If Russia survives, keeps the Donbass and Crimea, if its economy continues to function and it can rebuild its trade relations with China and India, then America has lost the war. And as a result, it will lose its allies. That is why America and NATO will continue. And that is why this is a world war that will continue. Its main cause is the crisis of the West.

Weltwoche: Which they justify with demographics and de-industrialization.

Todd: The West consists of the Atlantic states USA, Great Britain and France. They bestowed enlightenment, reason and liberalism on the world. What they have in common is the liquidation of industry in favor of a knowledge and service society. In this sense, Japan and Germany, which continue to bet on industry, are not Western countries. In Germany, women’s emancipation is less advanced and gender roles are more traditional than in France and England. And because women study less, there are more engineers. In 1933, when Hitler came to power, no one would have thought of calling Germany a Western country.

Weltwoche: This affiliation came with the defeat in 1945?

Todd: The affiliation of Japan and Germany to the West is the result of a military conquest. The Japanese are fully aware of this. I know the country, I’ve been to Japan more than twenty times, where I’m really well known. The Japanese talk about it quite normally. But they have no desire to belong to the West. They are very modern, but at the same time they hold on to their tradition and culture. The Germans act as if they belong to the West. That too is part of their neurosis. The war has turned Europe’s leading economic power back into a frightened, patronized protectorate. But I can understand the Germans very well. This war has also thrown me into a deep crisis of meaning. I can tell you this because we have known each other for so long. I always thought we, the French, were fools. And I consoled myself with England, where three of my grandchildren live. I studied in Cambridge, it’s my spiritual home. But today England is a confused country in decline. Its press and government indulge in a war delirium such as cannot even be observed in Germany. With everything I’ve written over the past few decades, including the Iraq war, I’ve never once criticized the British with a single word. Now they drive me crazy. Also, on the Iraq war, I have never criticized the British with a single word. Now they drive me crazy.

Weltwoche: How do you see the world of tomorrow?

Todd: The West has lost its values ​​and is in a spiral of self-destruction. Europe falls back under American rule. Because of its weak demographics, China will not rule the world, but India will rise to become a superpower. Russia is in the process of redefining itself as a culturally conservative, technologically advanced superpower. But despite defending traditional family values ​​and fighting the LGBT movement, its birth rate isn’t improving. That means it’s already in the same metaphysical crisis as the West. In Ukraine they are at war with each other. If they is not stopped, everyone will lose. – Die Weltwoche, 10 January 2023

› Jürg Altwegg is a Swiss author and journalist in Zurich.

› Dr. Emmanuel Todd is a French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) in Paris.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

Todd despite certain flaws in his arguments, is still pretty good and one of the better analyst-commentators we have in France.

Then there is Madame Caroline Galacteros who is really the only geopolitical analyst who is bang on all the time. Her interviews on radio are superb, she is rarely invited on MSM TV or newspapers these days because she doest fit into their narrative. Will post her video if I find one with English transcript.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

The reality we recognized long ago is now getting mainstream

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/geopo ... commentary
Geopolitics Is Now Geoeconomics... The Rest Is Commentary

BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, FEB 21, 2023 - 07:50 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank

This Daily has long taken the stance that geopolitics is now geoeconomics and so impacts global markets, and that the rest is commentary. The latest set of headlines reinforce that belief.

President Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv on Presidents’ Day, pledging “unwavering support.” (As former President Trump is to go to Ohio, the scene of a disaster of a different kind: it remains to be seen if geopolitics is good 2024 politics if it ignores local economics.)

The EU’s top diplomat says China will cross a ‘red line’ if it sends arms to Russia, matching US rhetoric from Secretary of State Blinken. Borrel stated Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi “told me that they’re not going to do it, that they don’t plan to do it. But we will remain vigilant.” US Senator Graham put it more bluntly on TV: "If you jump on the Putin train, you’re dumber than dirt. It would be like buying a ticket on the Titanic after you saw the movie."

Yet the Wall Street Journal, which already alleged China is sending dual-use technology to Russia, now claims ‘In China, worries about a weakened Russia prompt a rethink’, not suggesting Beijing will jump on the Biden train, but floating that its peace plan out this Friday may contain an implicit threat: peace now (on de facto Russian terms), or China really may supply Moscow with lethal aid. That would extend the scale and length of the conflict: and buying a ticket on the Titanic for China; or the US; and either way for ‘2023 is not 2022’ those in a happy-clappy claptrap trap.

Japan’s Kyocera already says China is no longer viable as the world’s factory due to US technology restrictions, and that production there only makes sense to sell in China rather than to export from it; Bloomberg reports the Pentagon isn’t sure how to start stripping Chinese suppliers out of its production lines – but political pressure means it will try; Turkey denies exporting electronic equipment used by the Russian military as well. The common thread is an ongoing bifurcation of global supply chains which means higher structural inflation. Nobody is as cheap as China once was – including China.

Meanwhile, the Netherlands is warning of Russian attempts to sabotage its energy infrastructure. Again, geopolitics meets geoeconomics meets markets, implying higher structural inflation as a tail risk, unless you ‘assume’ it away (as explored in our report on balance of payments and balance of power crises).

Yes, there are other factors involved, such as post-Covid changes to labour markets; or what China is or isn’t doing in terms of stimulus, as Beijing reportedly asks banks to hold back from increasing loans. However, if geopolitics is now geoeconomics and so impacts global markets, is it really a surprise that February’s RBA minutes showed a 50bps hike was considered; that tomorrow the RBNZ is seen going 50bps to 4.75%; that the ECB is seen going 50bps too; and that a slew of Fed speakers just threatened to step up to 50bps again? The rest is commentary.

Even so, that comment needs some commentary too. The phrase ‘the rest is commentary’ is taken as a reductive, no-nonsense, American way of thinking. While that may be true, that isn’t its root or even the full saying. Both lie in the Talmudic story about the first-century rabbinic sage Hillel, who a gentile provocatively asked to teach the whole Torah (the first five books of the Hebrew Bible) while standing on one leg. Hillel stands on one leg and replies, “That which is hateful to you, do not unto another: This is the whole Torah. The rest is commentary - go study.”

Besides being a lesson in good politics, international relations, and economics that we never live up to anywhere, the key point is that today we omit the “go study”, which changes the meaning of the phrase. It is not that the other 99.99% of the Torah is “commentary” to Hillel, but rather that commentary on the core message requires that 99.9% of study; indeed, you cannot make sense of the core message without it.

Translated back to today, it’s not good enough to say ‘geopolitics is now geoeconomics impacting markets’ and the rest is commentary. That statement requires detailed study into the details and implications. Equally, no amount of study will help if you don’t accept that core principle first.

Sadly, far too much market analysis still falls into the first or second camp. Conversations between the two, and between both and those who accept the key statement and study it, tend to be tense, or see people speak past or over each other. On which note, back to the Talmud.

The rival scholar to the open, “liberal” Hillel approach of debate is the strict, “conservative” sage Shammai, who when asked the same question about the Torah hit the man with a stick for his audacity. Indeed, although overlooked, tensions between the Hillel and Shammai camps rose to the point where some scholars of the Jerusalem Talmud state Shammai’s followers at one point killed Hillel’s over a Torah dispute. That is a lesson in bad politics, international relations, and economics that we still seem to live up to everywhere.

Please - go study!
There are many studies in US think tanks (embodiments of Shammai and Hillel) about breaking the nuclear threshold.
They feel nuke war's destructive potential has curbed wars but not conflicts between great powers.
With that said, they inject geopolitics into everything as they are constrained by nuke taboo.
So expect a false flag dirty or regular nuke to break the taboo.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by sanjaykumar »

Hillel’s stance (weak pun intended) is fabulous.

And pithy. (Unfortunately the Torah is second only to the Quran in it’s bizarre injunctions).
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

Instead of fighting directly, they are pulling other countries as proxies and destroying them
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

An important development that went nearly unnoticed :

Vice President of Guyana Hon. Dr. Bharrat Jagdeo met today (20 Feb 23) with Vice President of India, Hon. Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar. The two leaders acknowledged the age-old strong bilateral ties between the countries and reiterated their commitment to further strengthen India-Guyana relations.

Why is this important ? Significant oil reserves of high quality discovered just offshore. One of the biggest new discoveries in recent years. Exxon E&P did the discoveries in 2021.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

A more detailed and excellent report on Guyana and some historic India links are mentioned :
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

Suriname is another state with lot of Indian links.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

Yes, vaccine maitri was a genuine master stroke. While the G7 is working itself into a tizzy on Ukraine, India's push to give a voice to Global South in G20 is taking the credibility and good will built during the pandemic to a wholly different level.

Multipolarity doesnt just happen by itself. India is working hard and firing on all cylinders to crave out a pole for itself. The west clearly sees it (there was a 3 page special in Le Monde a few weeks ago on India's foreign policy bloom which was fairly accurate, except for the irrepressible few lines on right wing Hindu nationalist authoritarian crap at the very end) but they are so caught up in their own Ukraine mess to do anything about it.

Look at the UN resolution yesterday. They pressured GS countries until they voted in favour of the resolution demanding that Russia “immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine and called for a cessation of hostilities” but are doing zilch to address Food, Fuel and Fertiliser impact. G7 is crowing that this is some great diplomatic victory. Delusional.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

Anthony Blinking is coming to G20 and he will meet civic society to continue regime change operations
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

Image

Critical analysis
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

https://theprint.in/opinion/george-soro ... d/1393426/
George Soros, your understanding of India is profoundly flawed
Among Soros’ Indian friends, clearly there are as many astrology buffs as there are weak-minded Leftists.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1629091524746129408
1/ Why school indoctrination is working, and will make the Republicans unelectable in a generation. A thread, based on my new
@ManhattanInst report with @ZachG932

Some thing for our planners but no one will care but I think there has to be funding for new private school system for nationalistic education
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

How about we step outside and smell the optimism?
What do you think Central Schools aka Kendriauya Vidyalayas, Sainik Schools all are?
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

ramana wrote:How about we step outside and smell the optimism?
What do you think Central Schools aka Kendriauya Vidyalayas, Sainik Schools all are?
They are good ...

But we need to spread the net wider.

They are funding anti-national/hate mongers even in IITs now a days. They are catching them young.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by disha »

ramana wrote:Suriname is another state with lot of Indian links.
Infosys, WIPRO, Cognizant must start setting up It-Vity shops in both Guyana and Suriname.

Population of Guyana is just 800k and 40% of them trace their origins to India. A call center employing 3k to service the US/Canada/Mexico/LatAm will be a major boost. Prospects should go further towards actually setting up a space center in Guyana. Suriname has both oil and gold and with 27% Indian origin population and 13% Javanese.

Idea is to help them diversify out of just natural resources like oil or gold and get them into service sectors. With small populations, this countries are smaller than a major town in India. The potential to integrate them into larger Indian embrace exists. Sectors range from it-vity, air services (think of HAL LUH/Dhruv) & Dornier 228s), Health Care/Services, Space Cooperation (for eg. Small satellite launches and own the LATAM market complementing ESA) and education. And of course, help setup their coast guard.

ADDED LATER: https://www.wionews.com/world/guyana-to ... ent-565636
Guyana's Vice President, Dr Bharrat Jagdeo, said that his country plans to sign a memorandum of understanding with India to enhance cooperation in the energy sector beyond crude oil exports.... explained that "by 2027, we will produce over a million barrels, maybe 1.2 million barrels per day, that's a steep ramp up. That's almost 20% of India's daily use."

....

is seeking to purchase defence capabilities from India to assist with protecting its maritime boundaries and exclusive economic zones from illegal fishing and safeguarding its oil and gas industry. This is the third high-level visit from Guyana to India in the last two months, after the visit of Guyana's President Irfaan Ali and chief of defence staff, Brigadier Godfrey Bess.
Last edited by disha on 24 Feb 2023 23:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

vijayk wrote:https://theprint.in/opinion/george-soro ... d/1393426/
George Soros, your understanding of India is profoundly flawed
Among Soros’ Indian friends, clearly there are as many astrology buffs as there are weak-minded Leftists.
We are being too kind. But Soros is no god, he too is controlled by some other forces. I'd dare Sorrows and his minions to bet everything they have, every last kopeck against India. And we will see them lose it all with great joy.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

Excellent news Disha ji. Thaks for posting it.
India knows that there is enough residual heft and reach in Europe to shift it's oil and gas purchases from Russia to ME. India is actively de-risking.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by drnayar »

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by drnayar »

It is interesting to understand that one of the factors keeping the Russian economy humming is its investments in its own defence industry and arms development ! ..Valid pointers for building up India's military industrial complex as well as investments in capacity building

Europe subsidises American weapons industry leading to loss of its national wealth and sovereignty. It is a lesson for India.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

Folks Munich Security Conclave is the first big gathering after the start of the Russia-Ukraine Battle

Here is a link to the proceedings in English: https://securityconference.org/en/publi ... port-2023/

pdfs are at the bottom of the page.

Report Re: Vision
https://d3mbhodo1l6ikf.cloudfront.net/2 ... vision.pdf


2023 Security Index:

https://securityconference.org/assets/0 ... x_2023.pdf
Please pay attention to the India assessment.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chetak »

“NATO urges Moscow to reconsider suspending treaty as it dismantles nuclear arms control mechanism.”

~ Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr


Stoltenberg's warning was stark: "More nuclear weapons and less arms control makes the world more dangerous.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by drnayar »

chetak wrote:
“NATO urges Moscow to reconsider suspending treaty as it dismantles nuclear arms control mechanism.”
~ Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General.
Stoltenberg's warning was stark: "More nuclear weapons and less arms control makes the world more dangerous.[/b]
as if NATO has made the world safer !! WTF
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Tuan »

Thoughts on the Russo-Ukrainian War
https://projectofive.ca/2023/02/25/thou ... inian-war/
[...]Besides, the US-led NATO must pledge robust psychological warfare projects (PSYWAR), or the fundamental aspects of modern psychological operations (PsyOp), including military information support operations (MISO), political and economic warfare, information warfare, counternarrative strategy, and media framing, whereby the US-led NATO could win hearts and minds. The U.S. is still prominent in all these domains, not Russia, China, or Iran. Hence, as Hammond puts it, the US-led NATO must reinvent the war by redefining its nature [...]

[...] Hence, America and other Western nations should not exclusively supply military hardware to the Eastern European region. Instead, U.S.-led nations should turn the tables politically, economically, and diplomatically – via soft power measures – and strive to strengthen Ukraine and other regional allies with a more significant responsibility and leadership power to deal with the Russian masses and encourage them to revolutionize against Putin. This ‘Platov’ in a bunker can only be put in his place through a fusion of soft diplomacy and hard military might. As Roosevelt said, “speak softly and carry a big stick.”[...]
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