Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by rsingh »

^^^^^
With INDIA AID LOGO on bags?
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

kit
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

https://www.rappler.com/voices/thought- ... edization/

Finlandization points to the strictly-adhered neutrality of Finland during the Cold War based on a 1948 treaty with Moscow. But the Finnish statecraft swept an intensifying power competition between the West and the Soviet Union. Finlandization’s model served as a security guarantee for the USSR, which compelled Finland to refrain from seeking membership in NATO and thus limiting the scope of influence of the alliance. This also provided some respite for Finland vis-a-vis the aggression of the Soviet Union towards it; and maintaining Finlandization was a key feature throughout the era.

Philippinedization is defined as “the process whereby a weaker state, backed by a powerful country, goes through great lengths in temporarily refraining from opposing a neighboring great power by resorting to economic and diplomatic rapprochements at the strategic level, but strengthening its national security infrastructure on the operational level, with an eye for potential conflict in the foreseeable future. It broadens the multiplexity of the process that explains the depths of cultural factors affecting the broad brush of economics and politics, but by strengthening and diversifying the internal capacity and external networks to eventually escape from its current geopolitical dilemma given the probability of conflict in the future.”

The Philippinedization model represents Ukraine’s journey throughout their independence in the 1990s to consolidate its diplomatic, political-economic, and military position in Eastern Europe, while proactively engaging with NATO and maintaining cautious relations with its giant neighbor Russia. While Philippinedization is an evolving process and not a static concept of neutrality like Finlandization, the new framework explains how Ukraine’s engagements throughout the post-Cold War era were done with an eye for potential conflict in the future.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

rsingh wrote:^^^^^
With INDIA AID LOGO on bags?
and let them pay in Rs ! .. dont think any sane country would be hoarding up USD or look at its Reserves in USD in the coming decade ! .,
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Suresh S »

That is exactly my thought. India should start the process of getting rid of these dollars as soon as possible
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

First a book review:
ramana wrote:Reconstructing the Roman Republic: An Ancient Political Culture and Modern Research
Karl-J. Hölkeskamp, Henry Heitmann-Gordon

In recent decades, scholars have argued that the Roman Republic's political culture was essentially democratic in nature, stressing the central role of the 'sovereign' people and their assemblies. Karl-J. Hölkeskamp challenges this view in Reconstructing the Roman Republic, warning that this scholarly trend threatens to become the new orthodoxy, and defending the position that the republic was in fact a uniquely Roman, dominantly oligarchic and aristocratic political form.

Hölkeskamp offers a comprehensive, in-depth survey of the modern debate surrounding the Roman Republic. He looks at the ongoing controversy first triggered in the 1980s when the 'oligarchic orthodoxy' was called into question by the idea that the republic's political culture was a form of Greek-style democracy, and he considers the important theoretical and methodological advances of the 1960s and 1970s that prepared the ground for this debate. Hölkeskamp renews and refines the 'elitist' view, showing how the republic was a unique kind of premodern city-state political culture shaped by a specific variant of a political class. He covers a host of fascinating topics, including the Roman value system; the senatorial aristocracy; competition in war and politics within this aristocracy; and the symbolic language of public rituals and ceremonies, monuments, architecture, and urban topography.


Certain to inspire continued debate, Reconstructing the Roman Republic offers fresh approaches to the study of the republic while attesting to the field's enduring vitality.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

Why did I post this review?

I believe Putin's Russia is a form of the earlier oligarchy-led Roman Republic that is described above.
To follow my train of thought go to the early foundations of Christianity and the Roman Republic then.
It was much later in 320 AD that Constantine converted and Rome became a Christian empire.
Augustus Caeser was the first Emperor from 27 BC to 14 AD.
The apostles had memories of the Roman Republic's time.
Peter went to Rome and founded the Imperial branch.
Andreas went to Greece and formed the Orthodox branch which lasted till Constantinopole fell in 1453.
After many gyrations, Putin's Russia is an oligarchic, Orthodox, and elitist political form.
Also, it is a city state centered in Moscow.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Rudradev »

Why Nationalism Will Win In The 21st Century

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/wh ... ury-201920

This is a MUST-READ polemic that destroys intellectual arguments against nationalism stemming from different political and philosophical backgrounds.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

I had tweeted that
#Hindutva is nationalism with Hindu Characteristics.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

An article on Philosophy of History and how it influences Foreign Policy:

Everyman His Own Philosopher of History: Notions of Historical Process in the Study and Practice of Foreign Policy

Every time the West has a crisis they go back to this Universal History/philosophy of History to reassure themselves as the Chosen.
A good read to know what's going on?
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

x post

https://worldview.stratfor.com/situatio ... fic-allies

On April 7, NATO members agreed to increase cooperation with Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, and all four nations were invited to attend the April 8 NATO conference in Brussels, Nikkei Asia reported April 8

The real Asia Pacific military alliance contours .. the Asian military QUAD
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

https://twitter.com/RajivMessage/status ... 3246594049

George Soros has nominated
@harsh_mander
for the Nobel Peace Prize 2022. Decision in October.


Harsh Mander is an Indian author, columnist, researcher, teacher, and social activist who started the Karwan-e-Mohabbat campaign in solidarity with the victims of communal or religiously motivated violence. He is the Director of the Centre for Equity Studies, a research organisation based in New Delhi.

Mander formerly worked in the Indian Administrative Services(IAS), serving in the predominantly tribal states of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh for almost two decades. After Gujarat Riot, Mander left the service in 2002, and started social activism.He is a founding member of the National Campaign for the People’s Right to Information. He was a Member of the Core Groups on Bonded Labour and Mental Hospitals of the statutory National Human Rights Commission of India; and also on various national official National Committees such as those for Social Protection and the Below Poverty Line (BPL) populations.

From October 1999 to March 2004, he worked as Country Director, ActionAid India, a development support organization. He is Founder-Chairperson of the State Health Resource Centre, Chhattisgarh, which established the Mitanin Community Health Programme, the forerunner of the Asha Programme, and the Chairperson of INCENSE (The Inclusion and Empowerment of People with Severe Mental Disorders). He is also a member of the Working Group of the Project on Armed Conflict Resolution & People's Rights, University of California, Berkeley.

He was appointed a Member of India’s National Advisory Council by the council President Sonia Gandhi in June 2010.He convened the working groups on the Food Security Bill, Land Acquisition and Rehabilitation Bill, Child Labour Abolition, Urban Poverty and Homelessness, Disability Rights, Bonded Labour, Street Vendors and Urban Slums, and co-convened the groups on the Communal and Targeted Violence Bill, Dalits and Minorities and Tribal Rights, among others. His tenure was not renewed in 2012.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

Two book reviews of events in 1954 to 1956 on both ends of the Asian continent and changing world order

First on Suez Crisis that led to British Colonialism in Middle East
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:Last few weeks have been on a reading spree. Sharing two very interesting books on the fall of empires. Read them in reverse chronological order, but much the better for it.

Suez: Britain's End of Empire in the Middle East:
  1. Fascinating account of hubris on part of Britain and France
  2. How countries with weak economies have no business projecting power
  3. Without securing a political end objective, you fritter away gains on the battlefield
  4. Reality is that if you are not strong enough to go it alone, you need to game big power/ power bloc moves
  5. For all the bonhomie the special relationship between GB and the US had more than its share of irritants. Major ones. When we engage with other countries we need to keep that in mind. It's never smooth sailing.
Image
Second on Dien Bien Phu and End of French Colonialism:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:The second on the same theme:
Valley of Death: The Tragedy at Dien Bien Phu That Led America into the Vietnam War
  1. The Vietnam debacle seen unfolding through French eyes. Hubris. Weak economy. Vacuum off leadership on French side.
  2. Without a great powers support its difficult to win. Forget stories of grit. It was Chinese material that forged pathway for VietCong. Not taking away their grit and determination for nationalism.
  3. American miscalculation. At one time Hi Chi Min was amenable to discard Communism if he would get American support for independence.
  4. Brutality of war. After reading about Dien Ben Phu one can't but feel sorry for the front liners on each side.
  5. Logistics, Logistics, Logistics. The French lost the battle because they gave up the initiative and logistics was bad.
  6. Again reinforcing the fact that one can't win a battle from the air.
  7. Failure compounded because of sloth and miscommunication in command structure.
  8. Again political will. The French suffered fewer losses at Dien Ben Phu. They could have recovered from the battle but lack of national will brought the ignominious defeat. Lessons for us in India faced by BIF termites who keep gnawing away at our national spirit.
  9. How France and Britain despite bring close allies played their cards at cross purposes to the US. Yet they stayed allies.
  10. Beautiful description of how Molotov and the CCCP mentored Chou En Lai and brought Communist China to its first great power conference.
  11. Also let's forget all talks of India could have been a Permanent Member. Post the Geneva Conference in May 1954, China had arrived at the high table.
  12. And finally, no friends in geopolitics. Only permanent thing is national interest. The book which draws extensively on US, UK, FR and to a lesser extent on CCCP archives details personal interactions. Seeing this no one would have thought that CCCP would fight with China in another 15 years and three US would be embracing China's in two years more.
Image
And remarks by Mukesh Kumar:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:I penned down what came to me prima facie in the above posts. Lots of lessons we can draw. The world suddenly went from blank and white to full 4K for me. :D

But with the RU-UA imbroglio in the background, the books were pretty interesting. History is repeating itself. Maybe it's the American Eagle over reaching this time. And China is the new kid in the block cementing it's position in the background
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

I think it's remarkable that in two years : 1954 and 1956, at the two far ends of Asia ended European colonialism.
And in a way, the DBP sucked in US, and 1975 should have ended US presence in Asia.
The Ukraine Crisis thanks to Biden's Folly is going to end US presence in Europe itself.

Kishore Mahbubani was right about the old normal coming back.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

US will continue to draw on Europe for its cultural and philosophical (post modernist) moorings or should I say justifications. Will economically squeeze geriatric Europe's last drops of blood to cover it with the NATO umbrella. But it will realise it can no longer feed on Russia's vast resources and will have to find new hosts. Could be Africa with the BBBW. Asia is too populated and already powerful to prey upon easily.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... s?from=mdr

The South Asian nation is becoming a huge buyer of Russian oil, snapping up crude cargoes that are going unwanted by European importers. And with several European countries and oil majors self-sanctioning Russian purchases and starving themselves of fuel, India is already profiting from selling diesel onward to Europe.

If Europe adopts official sanctions on Russian crude and fuel, prices will likely surge, and India could profit even more from refining Russian oil to fuels it then sells to Europe for more money.


or how geopolitical power = money
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

EU nations will be all too happy to ride on Hungarian veto so slither away from this sanctions orgy coz they're realising its actually Russia who is sticking it into them. I'll bet my jewels and say it will be BAU before autumn starts.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Vayutuvan »

Cyrano wrote:BBBW
WHat is the full form? Googling yielded unintended hits.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by AdityaVM »

Vayutuvan wrote:
Cyrano wrote:BBBW
WHat is the full form? Googling yielded unintended hits.
:rotfl: :rotfl:

It's Build Back Better World, also known as B3W star.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Vayutuvan »

AdityaVM wrote: :rotfl: :rotfl:
It's Build Back Better World, also known as B3W star.
Aah. Very similar to Disinformation Department. 1984 called and they want "Ministry of Truth" back. I was thinking more on the lines Black-on-Black-Bush-Wars (instigating neighboring countries and/or exploit inter-tribal faultlines and supporting one faction against the other) as they had done in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Korea, ...
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

So can we get back to regular programming after this interlude?
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by rsingh »

kit wrote:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... s?from=mdr

The South Asian nation is becoming a huge buyer of Russian oil, snapping up crude cargoes that are going unwanted by European importers. And with several European countries and oil majors self-sanctioning Russian purchases and starving themselves of fuel, India is already profiting from selling diesel onward to Europe.

If Europe adopts official sanctions on Russian crude and fuel, prices will likely surge, and India could profit even more from refining Russian oil to fuels it then sells to Europe for more money.


or how geopolitical power = money
Bad bad Putin is prolonging war for no reason. Fear of inflation touching 10% in the UK. All knowing Euro area CBs are wondering to raise the inflation bar to 5%. UK middle class is already bent under two job weight to pay for normal § hour sleep at flimsy doll houses. I wonder how much my regular black coffee will cost on service areas...5 pounds perhaps
Why is Putin not listening to the Western experts? Why he is still fighting.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

It's 'no war' war in an inter linked world.
West is on a mutal destruction dance.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

Very good window on France point of view
Institue Montaigne!!!

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/publications
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by g.sarkar »

"Valley of Death: The Tragedy at Dien Bien Phu That Led America into the Vietnam War"
is available for online borrowing at:
https://archive.org/details/valleyofdeathtra0000morg
Gautam
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vimal »

kit wrote:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... s?from=mdr

The South Asian nation is becoming a huge buyer of Russian oil, snapping up crude cargoes that are going unwanted by European importers. And with several European countries and oil majors self-sanctioning Russian purchases and starving themselves of fuel, India is already profiting from selling diesel onward to Europe.

If Europe adopts official sanctions on Russian crude and fuel, prices will likely surge, and India could profit even more from refining Russian oil to fuels it then sells to Europe for more money.


or how geopolitical power = money
I was wondering why it's written in third person when it's an India media house publishing the report. Sure enough, article is from Bloomberg, a Chinese vassal media house.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

A fascinating unknown peep into the German mind imagining the world through created American Indian eyes.

Wonder if Merkel read any of the Karl May books!

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012 ... st-germany
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chetak »

ramana wrote:A fascinating unknown peep into the German mind imagining the world through created American Indian eyes.

Wonder if Merkel read any of the Karl May books!

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012 ... st-germany
they have been shamed by the west into feeling a deep and collective civilizational shame post the 2 WWs

Maybe this is a form of escapism, a refuge as it were, this fantasy world where they are temporarily guilt free

Their former nemesis has held the protective nuke umbrella over them while they have literally risen like phoenixes from the ashes.

japan did not receive a marshall plan like europe did, but it benefited economically during the Korean War (1950-53) when japan served as a staging area for U.S. forces.

The current national mindset of both the germans and the japs would make for a fascinating study
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

https://www.reuters.com/article/taiwan- ... SL4N2TC0JE

SILICON SHIELD

A key tool in this containment strategy: the Wassenaar Arrangement, a voluntary pact among 42 nations to curb the spread of “dual-use” technology, with both commercial and military applications. Under Wassenaar, Washington and its allies have harmonized controls over the flow of chip technology to China.

The most significant restriction is on equipment that uses extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light beams. This light is generated by lasers and focused by mirrors to lay out ultra-thin circuits on silicon wafers. EUV is at the bleeding edge of semiconductor manufacturing. It allows chipmakers to build faster and more powerful microprocessors and memory chips.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by KL Dubey »

vimal wrote:I was wondering why it's written in third person when it's an India media house publishing the report. Sure enough, article is from Bloomberg, a Chinese vassal media house.
Like I said a few months ago, TOI has started republishing reoprts from international BIF/anti-Bharat media outlets.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/w ... irculation

Meanwhile, the German agriculture minister, Cem Ozdemir, while commenting on India's decision to ban wheat exports, said: "If everyone starts to impose export restrictions or to close markets, that would worsen the crisis."

"We call on India to assume its responsibility as a G20 member," Ozdemir added.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by g.sarkar »

ramana wrote:A fascinating unknown peep into the German mind imagining the world through created American Indian eyes.
Wonder if Merkel read any of the Karl May books!
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012 ... st-germany
I am told Hitler was a fan of Karl May. I had a number of German friends who read Karl May and were fond of the writings, so he is still popular.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

The point is the image of the American Wild West is different for Germans than that of the Americans.
The Germans identify with the oppressed Native Americans for they feel empathy for what they felt under British propaganda.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by g.sarkar »

Ramanaji,
Karl May never visited the West when he wrote his Western Books. So, all his books are pure fiction, written after doing meticulous research. His books are still popular as they offer an escape into a make belief world. Before his death he did manage to visit the US, but not the West, as his health was failing. It is not correct to say that Germans identify with oppressed Natives. They identify with successful nations, that includes nations such as Japan, the British and more recently China. This is needed as their economy depends on exporting to countries. Their world view is still basically racist. Germans were interested in India in the 50s and 60s, when India imported a great deal from them. Those days Germans and Germany were disliked in Europe due to WWII. But with import substitution of the later years, they were not interested in India anymore. During my stay there in the late 70s and 80s they concentrated exclusively on China as they were hoping to bag huge orders and make a lot of money. So, Chinese studies replaced Indology.
https://www.dw.com/en/who-was-karl-may- ... a-37675272
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Mort Walker »

Looks like the ban of wheat exports may not apply to atta (flour) once it has been ground. Lots of India’s atta is exported to the ME and places around the world. An Indian grocery store in the middle of bum f**k USA carry Indian atta.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by rsingh »

Most the big brands have mills and packaging facilities in UAE, Germany or UK. I do not know about the US. Same goes for rice and pulses.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chetak »

kit wrote:https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/w ... irculation

Meanwhile, the German agriculture minister, Cem Ozdemir, while commenting on India's decision to ban wheat exports, said: "If everyone starts to impose export restrictions or to close markets, that would worsen the crisis."

"We call on India to assume its responsibility as a G20 member," Ozdemir added.
some countries in europe have also refused to export wheat. hungary has banned grain exports, argentina and turkey also made moves this week to increase their control over local products. And moldova, albeit a small shipper, temporarily halted exports of wheat, corn and sugar from this month.

Ozdemir has nothing at all to say about them. effing hypocrites onlee

maybe these jokers should try asking the USCIRF to export food grain from the US, only after it is properly blessed and religiously consecrated, of course
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by rsingh »

^^^
We have to remind Germany of its behaviour during COVID vaccine crisis?
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

India should advise them to rip out all the vineyards, forests and shopping malls with thousands of acres of parking space and grow wheat instead and show the way as responsible G20 nations. (I know it makes no sense, but neither do they :P )
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

Elensly regime is looking to make a killing selling stock piled grain in Ukr at current high prices via road routes through Eastern Europe and onwards from Moldova and Romanian sea ports. They have requisitioned all transport vehicles from civilians & militias for this. Hope the Russians will spare them enough fuel to help this grains for weapons scam.
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