Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
https://theprint.in/diplomacy/we-want-t ... oy/957096/
What does this portend??
More rift between France and EU/US in all matters
Anything that would help us with the strategic cooperation
Can this lead to anything the Ambassador is alluding to meaning MIC in India!
What does this portend??
More rift between France and EU/US in all matters
Anything that would help us with the strategic cooperation
Can this lead to anything the Ambassador is alluding to meaning MIC in India!
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
France is doing the right thing. Germany will inevitably weaken due to its energy policies and this is France's chance after decades to make its strategic industries grab space and looks like they're aware and serious about it.
Monsieur Lenain gets my thumbs up ! If it was a madame l'ambassadrice I'd have given a bise![Wink ;)](./images/smilies/icon_wink.gif)
Monsieur Lenain gets my thumbs up ! If it was a madame l'ambassadrice I'd have given a bise
![Wink ;)](./images/smilies/icon_wink.gif)
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
One of the main reasons for India becoming wary of exporting wheat in a free and unrestrained manner is that many countries, mainly cheen and some of the big boys in europe have started to buy and hoard Indian wheat, far in excess of their domestic and reasonable requirements.Cyrano wrote:Elensly regime is looking to make a killing selling stock piled grain in Ukr at current high prices via road routes through Eastern Europe and onwards from Moldova and Romanian sea ports. They have requisitioned all transport vehicles from civilians & militias for this. Hope the Russians will spare them enough fuel to help this grains for weapons scam.
They are hoping to deplete Indian stocks and build up their own holdings for resale at higher prices at a latter date.
No need to listen to any gora or other european jokers on how India should manage its exports.
Heat wave conditions in India have already stunted the expected/forecasted yields for grain production and so, India will, first and foremost, manage it's own domestic, and buffer stock requirements, before catering to international greed
via aljazeera
Agriculture ministers from the G7 industrialised nations immediately condemned India’s decision on Saturday.
“If everyone starts to impose export restrictions or to close markets, that would worsen the crisis,” German agriculture minister Cem Ozdemir said at a news conference in Stuttgart.
“We call on India to assume its responsibility as a G20 member,” Ozdemir said.
Government officials in New Delhi said on Saturday that India would still allow exports backed by already issued letters of credit and to countries that request supplies “to meet their food security needs”.
The ban would not be in perpetuity and could be revised, the officials told a news conference.
A spike in the global prices for wheat threatened the food security of India and neighbouring and vulnerable countries, India’s Directorate of Foreign Trade said in a notice in the government gazette dated Friday.
Although there was no dramatic fall in India’s wheat output this year, government officials said that unregulated exports had led to a rise in local prices for the grain.
“We don’t want wheat trade to happen in an unregulated manner or hoarding to happen,” commerce secretary BVR Subrahmanyam told reporters in New Delhi.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Just to reinforce Gautam's view on the German colonial mentality. They did not have colonies in America but did in Africa. Their treatment of Africans in SW Africa (now Namibia) and Tanganyika is almost as bad as the Belgian treatment of Congolese natives. Today, more than 100 years later, the SW of Tanganyika bordering on Zambia is underpopulated because of the number of spear weilding natives machine gunned by German troops prior to the First WW. The treatment of the Herero (in Namabia) is also well documented. They suffered a similar reduction in number to the later genocide of Jews.g.sarkar wrote:Ramanaji,
Karl May never visited the West when he wrote his Western Books. So, all his books are pure fiction, written after doing meticulous research. His books are still popular as they offer an escape into a make belief world. Before his death he did manage to visit the US, but not the West, as his health was failing. It is not correct to say that Germans identify with oppressed Natives. They identify with successful nations, that includes nations such as Japan, the British and more recently China. This is needed as their economy depends on exporting to countries. Their world view is still basically racist. Germans were interested in India in the 50s and 60s, when India imported a great deal from them. Those days Germans and Germany were disliked in Europe due to WWII. But with import substitution of the later years, they were not interested in India anymore. During my stay there in the late 70s and 80s they concentrated exclusively on China as they were hoping to bag huge orders and make a lot of money. So, Chinese studies replaced Indology.
https://www.dw.com/en/who-was-karl-may- ... a-37675272
Gautam
In the UK, the Germans were often referred to as "Huns" during the Second world War. I understand that this was in reference to a speech made by the Kaiser to German troops as they embarked to fight the Boxer rebellion. The Chinese had killed a German diplomat during the fighting and the Kaiser exhorted his troops to be like Huns to the Chinese so that the Chinese would not look a German in the eye again. Sadly by the time his troops arrived in China the British (using many Indian troops), French and US had defeated the Boxers and they never saw action.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Rsatchi wrote:https://theprint.in/diplomacy/we-want-t ... oy/957096/
What does this portend??
More rift between France and EU/US in all matters
Anything that would help us with the strategic cooperation
Can this lead to anything the Ambassador is alluding to meaning MIC in India!
Talk is good ., lets see whether they walk the talk ., Jet engine tech
i also want a portion of their Airbus manufacturing
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
No one's gonna give jet engine tech - once India gets that, we'll be fully independent. Most of the rest is doable with LCA experience. If we were really serious about jet engines and invested heavily for the past 20 years including getting a few western experts here paying them tons of money, it could have been done.
Airbus already mfgs across Europe & in China. Indian market needs to be big enough to justify local mfg investment. Else we have to be happy with MRO and learn the hard way with Saras etc. Never too late to get really serious R&D on all major materials and mfg tech. We should stop expecting freebies since it only pushes away the hard effort that needs to be made and freebies will never come.
Airbus already mfgs across Europe & in China. Indian market needs to be big enough to justify local mfg investment. Else we have to be happy with MRO and learn the hard way with Saras etc. Never too late to get really serious R&D on all major materials and mfg tech. We should stop expecting freebies since it only pushes away the hard effort that needs to be made and freebies will never come.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/on-indi ... sm-2980045
Although India is the second-largest wheat producer in the world, it accounts for only a small part of global wheat exports. By contrast, some developed economies, including the US, Canada, the EU and Australia, are among major exporters of wheat," it added.
According to the GT, if some western countries decide to reduce wheat exports in the wake of a potential global food crisis, they will be in no position to criticise India, a country that faces pressure to secure its own food supply.
Although India is the second-largest wheat producer in the world, it accounts for only a small part of global wheat exports. By contrast, some developed economies, including the US, Canada, the EU and Australia, are among major exporters of wheat," it added.
According to the GT, if some western countries decide to reduce wheat exports in the wake of a potential global food crisis, they will be in no position to criticise India, a country that faces pressure to secure its own food supply.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
EU has granted an exemption to EU from sanctions imposed by EU.
@markets · 17 May
Natural gas prices extend decline after the European Union said companies can keep importing Russian supplies without breaching sanctions https://trib.al/JR2LFGH
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Every kid who owns a cricket bat in the local playground knows this. He is not out till he wants to get out, or else he is going to take the bat and go home.....
![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTHzGLsVsAA77hr?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Ha ha! Only the civilized west stole some 400B$ of Russian reserves and launched shock and awe sanctions, I actually thought Russia was quite patient and clever - they could have turned off the gas pipelines in a tit for tat reaction in Feb/March before end of winter and screwed Europe royally. Putin has been quite gentle.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
they are not his enemies but more like his valued customers.Cyrano wrote:Ha ha! Only the civilized west stole some 400B$ of Russian reserves and launched shock and awe sanctions, I actually thought Russia was quite patient and clever - they could have turned off the gas pipelines in a tit for tat reaction in Feb/March before end of winter and screwed Europe royally. Putin has been quite gentle.
putin has also dusted off and used mostly his vintage weaponry so far.
He has held back in reserve the top notch stuff, for a possible match up with NATO, if they were so foolish as to have a go at him.
the amerikis are too used to the luxury of shockinaw victories with faceless pilots dropping bomb loads originating in arizona or whatever
NATO or even the amerikis have never faced off with an enemy as technologically savvy as putin or one with weapon systems whose destructiveness is feared, as well as, its effectiveness and undoubted lethality so far remain unknown/unexposed to the west.
In actual war, one presumes that satellites will get taken out very quickly, leaving long range drones and electronic warfare and communication intelligence capabilities (ELINT) operating largely in the default mode
any attack on putin will send the world into a panic, because of looming food and oil crises that will tank even the strongest of economies.
as it is, the euros are not too pleased with biden chacha for hiding behind them while poking the bear
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
The western polity doesn't realise this fully and are acting delusional. I have some hope there are few professionals left in the Pentagon who will be listened to.He has held back in reserve the top notch stuff, for a possible match up with NATO, if they were so foolish as to have a go at him.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
It is EU biraders who should understand what is going on here. It is their hood that is going up in fire while the delusional chacha is sipping his coffee across the pond.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Macron is the only slim hope for EU. Let's see what he does.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Paxi like behavior.chetak wrote:EU has granted an exemption to EU from sanctions imposed by EU.
![ROTFL :rotfl:](./images/smilies/icon_rotfl.gif)
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Seems China is the biggest hoarder of grain and continues to hoard. Raises all kinds of concerns ...
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
that is why India stopped exports via private buyers from outside, most of who are cheeni fronts.Cyrano wrote:Seems China is the biggest hoarder of grain and continues to hoard. Raises all kinds of concerns ...
Except for contracts already signed and LCs opened, India is now mostly open only to G to G sales
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byTcI-cLWG8
Beijing is said to be hoarding more than 50 per cent of the world's grain and the world is paying for China's food stockpile.
This has led to a steep rise in global food prices.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
ARE THEY PREPARING FOR A TAIWAN INVASION ?chetak wrote:Cyrano wrote:Seems China is the biggest hoarder of grain and continues to hoard. Raises all kinds of concerns ...
Beijing is said to be hoarding more than 50 per cent of the world's grain and the world is paying for China's food stockpile.
This has led to a steep rise in global food prices.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
They don't have the ambhibious capacity to get the job done at the moment. If the shipbuilding program continues at the recent pace. By 2027-28 they should have the shipping to get the job done.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Pratyush wrote:They don't have the ambhibious capacity to get the job done at the moment. If the shipbuilding program continues at the recent pace. By 2027-28 they should have the shipping to get the job done.
Do they really need to ? They can secure beach heads, fortify and launch full scale assaults from almost all directions., they are not that off from mainland, just 100-200 km !, add to that the humongous capacity of the chinese coast guard and navy
have a look below !
https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/mind- ... -invasion/
While others took his warning more seriously, there have been good reasons to question whether China could successfully subjugate Taiwan any time soon. Among these is that China has appeared to lack the amphibious transport capacity necessary to successfully conduct a cross-strait invasion. However, assessments of China’s amphibious sealift capability have typically focused on its navy’s dedicated amphibious assault ships, and have largely discounted the ability of China’s civilian merchant shipping to contribute to an invasion — especially in its initial stages.
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has largely agreed. In its 2020 report on Taiwan, it said, “The [Chinese military’s] most immediate limitation in executing a Taiwan campaign is a shortage of amphibious lift, or ships and aircraft capable of transporting the troops the [Chinese military] needs to successfully subjugate the island.” The report did indicate that China is working to close this gap in “creative ways that may challenge foreign preconceptions of what the [People’s Liberation Army] can and cannot do in an invasion of Taiwan,” but indicated that efforts to use civilian vessels to do so consisted thus far of limited training efforts to support the landing of follow-on forces — that is, after the Chinese military seized a port or constructed temporary wharves to offload civilian ships.
Closing the Gap
The People’s Liberation Army has for years used civilian roll-on/roll-off vehicle carriers and car ferries to transport equipment and personnel for exercises and routine transport. China’s 2016 National Defense Transportation Law formalized and clarified this role and, according to researcher Conor Kennedy of the China Maritime Studies Institute, was “designed to improve the [Chinese military]’s ability to leverage civilian carriers to support strategic projection,” and introduced the concept of “strategic projection support forces” organized from large and medium-sized Chinese companies. Ian Easton of the Project 2049 Institute addressed the use of ad hoc civilian vessels in his 2017 book, The Chinese Invasion Threat, identifying that a lack of specialization, standardization, and coordination could doom an attempt to use civilian shipping in an invasion.
China’s efforts in recent years seem intended to rectify the sorts of shortcomings Easton identified, through technical standards, peacetime organization, and practice. First, starting even before the defense transportation law went into effect, China issued technical standards for key types of civilian ships that would ensure that they could “serve national defense needs if they are mobilized.” Evidence of the dual-use nature of China’s civilian shipping can be seen in the press announcements of China’s own roll-on/roll-off ferry builders and operators. China’s biggest ferry shipbuilder stated publicly in 2015 that one of its largest roll-on/roll-off ferries was built for dual military and civilian purposes, and one of China’s largest ferry operators has been similarly described as having a dual civil-military development philosophy. In short, many of China’s merchant vessels are seemingly being built with military-supporting features and design characteristics “baked in,” though the details remain vague.
Rather than waiting for a crisis to mobilize and organize its merchant fleets on an ad hoc basis, Chinese leaders have already begun organizing civilian shipping into auxiliary units of the military. As examples, the Bohai Ferry Group, which operates large roll-on/roll-off ferries across the Yellow Sea, is organized into the Eighth Transport Group of the strategic support ship fleet. Hainan Strait Shipping Co., which operates ferries to and from Hainan Island on the South China Sea, is similarly organized as the Ninth Transport Group. CSC RoRo Logistics Co., which operates dozens of specialized vehicle-carrying ships, is organized as the Fifth Transport Group, with a number of its vehicle carriers built to national defense specifications.
Perhaps most importantly, the Chinese military now seems to be regularly practicing the execution of amphibious assaults with civilian shipping integrated into the operations, and in a July 2020 exercise even experimented with launching amphibious assault craft directly from civilian ferries with modified stern ramps, and thus potentially straight toward the beach rather than through port facilities. Employment of civilian roll-on/roll-off ferries appears to have continued in the summer of 2021, in an amphibious assault exercise that I identified as likely involving civilian ferries via observation of automatic identification system broadcasts. China’s Global Times later confirmed that “intensive cross-sea exercises” occurred during that time frame that involved civilian vessels carrying both marine corps and ground force units.
Seriously? A Bunch of Car Ferries?
At this point, a reader could be forgiven for wondering how a few car ferries and vehicle carriers could significantly increase the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This is where the issue of scale comes to the fore — and if the Chinese maritime sector has anything to offer, sheer scale is front and center. China’s merchant shipbuilding industry is the world’s largest, building more than 23 million gross tons of shipping in 2020 (U.S. yards built a mere 70,000 tons the same year, though they typically average somewhere in the 200,000s). Of note, while gaining control of Hong Kong’s sizable merchant fleet was not a primary driver of China’s subjugation of Hong Kong, it is likely to be a significant result. The powers related to national security in the Hong Kong National Security Law are quite broad, apply to offenses undermining the “unification” of China as well as those “committed on board a vessel or aircraft registered in the [r]egion,” and are explicitly left to the interpretation of China’s National People’s Congress. If that were not enough, Hong Kong’s largest container shipping carrier, Orient Overseas Container Line, was bought in 2018 by COSCO Shipping, a state-owned shipping company that is “widely recognized as the maritime supply arm of the People’s Liberation Army.”
In terms of individual vessel size, most of China’s roll-on/roll-off ferries are substantially larger than the ferries that many readers may have encountered. For a sense of scale, the largest ferries in the Staten Island Ferry system, as well as the largest that ply the routes to Martha’s Vineyard, measure at around 4,500 gross tons. The largest ferries operating anywhere in the United States are the “Jumbo Mark II” class of the Washington State Ferries system, almost three times that size at just under 13,000 tons. For comparison, one of the two ferries that appeared to be involved in China’s recent amphibious assault exercises, the Bo Hai Ma Zhu, is more than two and a half times as large as the Jumbo Mark II ferries. The ferry Huadong Pearl VIII, described above by its shipbuilder as a dual-purpose vessel built partly for military use, is even larger yet, as are many of China’s pure vehicle carriers.
What really matters in terms of the threat of invasion of Taiwan, however, is how much China’s civilian shipping could bolster its assault forces in aggregate. To help gain a sense of this I conducted a survey, using broadcasted identification data, of large oceangoing Chinese-owned roll-on/roll-off ferries and vehicle carriers. The size of ships is often measured in tons. Confusingly, sometimes this refers to the volume of the enclosed space of a ship (gross tons), and sometimes it refers to the weight of the contents a ship can carry (cargo, fuel, passengers, etc., in deadweight tons). Naval vessels are normally measured in displacement tonnes, which refers to the weight of water displaced by a ship when it floats. For the purpose of comparison with the Chinese navy’s fleet of amphibious assault ships, with the assistance of a naval architect I converted the measurements of China’s roll-on/roll-off ferries and vehicle carriers into displacement tonnes.
The result? By my estimate, China’s large roll-on/roll-off ferries total approximately 750,000 displacement tonnes, and its vehicle carriers total about 425,000 tonnes. The combination of this civilian roll-on/roll-off shipping — more than 1.1 million tonnes of potential vehicle and troop transport ships — is more than three times the tonnage of the Chinese navy’s entire fleet of amphibious assault ships (about 370,000). These civilian roll-on/roll-off fleets, essentially all of which could be put at the service of the People’s Liberation Army, are also greater in tonnage than the sum of all of the U.S. Navy’s amphibious assault ships (about 840,000). If available for military use, Hong Kong’s roll-on/roll-off vehicle carriers would add a further 370,000 displacement tonnes to the total, bringing it to nearly 1.5 million tonnes of sealift shipping. This larger total would also be nearly equal to the roughly 1.5 million tonnes of government-owned, civilian-crewed roll-on/roll-off shipping maintained by the U.S. Military Sealift Command — the Defense Department’s primary provider of ocean transportation, responsible for moving and prepositioning cargo and supplies used by U.S. forces and partners worldwide.
Xi now desperately needs a win looking at the uncontrollable civilian situation inside China .
I do think a Taiwan invasion is imminent
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
The English channel is much narrower as compared to the Taiwan straight. Yet other than D day. We have not seen a cross channel invasion.
Civilian shipping will not be able to get the job done in the absence of intact Piers.
Those would be the first to be taken out by Taiwan.
Civilian shipping will not be able to get the job done in the absence of intact Piers.
Those would be the first to be taken out by Taiwan.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Do they need to invade ? Taiwan is a relatively small island, and presumably dependent on external world for food and energy. Just blockade them (they have enough ships and subs for this) and do some coastal bombardment and cruise missile attacks on infrastructure. They will collapse within a few months.
I don't think the US will do anything other than sanctions.
I don't think the US will do anything other than sanctions.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
If china invades Taiwan, watching the west which has already boycotted Russian energy and commodities, stepping up and boycotting all Chinese goods will be fun. I'm not worried about France - at least we have the Cro-Magnon heritage to fall back on.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Why is China doing a stress test for probable sanctions?
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
You are correct that the English Channel is much narrower that the Taiwan Strait. However you are incorrect when you say that the only successful "invasion" was D-Day. There are numerous successful military crossing mostly undocument, in both directions. Some of the better known ones were Julius Caesar (of "Veni, Vidi, Vinci" fame), various Anglo-Saxon tribes, William the Conqueror (French Duke of Normandy) and various English kings after him who had a claim on French territory. This is probably the basis of Anglo-French rivalry.Pratyush wrote:The English channel is much narrower as compared to the Taiwan straight. Yet other than D day. We have not seen a cross channel invasion.
Civilian shipping will not be able to get the job done in the absence of intact Piers.
Those would be the first to be taken out by Taiwan.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Want to see which western country actually boycotts Chinese goodsCyrano wrote:If china invades Taiwan, watching the west which has already boycotted Russian energy and commodities, stepping up and boycotting all Chinese goods will be fun. I'm not worried about France - at least we have the Cro-Magnon heritage to fall back on.
![Mr. Green :mrgreen:](./images/smilies/icon_mrgreen.gif)
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
As I've written before, many Eu countries compensate for their economic decline and lack of wealth creation by making people feel their purchasing power has increased by importing all kinds of cheap Chinese goods. This further kills off any remaining domestic industry and wealth creation becomes even more deflated and the vicious cycle continues.
People addicted to these cheap goods and fast fashion junk bought using social assistance money stay in the illusion of progress and don't cause revolutions. But energy prices going up upsets this opioid dream and cold winters will make people wake up to a harsh reality they've been escaping for a few decades now.
I'm expecting 10x(yellow vests) level unrest this winter unless Europe makes peace with Russia and resolves the energy crisis. China has no pressing reason to invade Taiwan unless the US Ukrainises it - which will still take a few years before they can pose any kind of "threat". But if China does invade for some stupid H&D reasons or for Xitler's legacy, it will throw Europe so badly off its axis that it will be the dark ages again.
Thats the beauty of a globalised, interconnected world. As long as Govts stay sensible - especially the powerful ones, and are willing to de-escalate conflicts before they get bigger, and learn to be a little less greedy, a little more generous and forgiving - it can and has worked beautifully. but economic growth happens in cycles or rather waves of acceleration to an optimal level and then slows, until the next break through innovations happen and the next cycle/wave starts.
Methinks these cyclic slowdown periods before the next cycle of growth starts are especially fragile periods. Corporate profits plateau out or decline, people's purchasing power stagnates or declines a bit and Govts are under pressure to "trigger" the next growth cycle sooner without waiting for some unpredictable innovation breakthru.
But unforeseeable events like the pandemic, uncontrollable bubble bursts like 2008 which was absorbed by creating much bigger bubbles are all pushing up the entropy of a highly globalised world to create super-hotspots that will blow up.
The Ukraine crisis IMO was triggered by a US govt/establishment which is totally at loss to imagine where the post pandemic world will go, and totally lacking confidence in its own capacity to shape the future in a benign and mutually beneficial way. The US no longer sees itself capable of triggering the next growth cycle or even riding along on the wave. Therefore, the US has reacted defensively and tried to protect its dominant position by degrading perceived threat of Russia before they themselves are weakened. This lack of confidence has made them trigger Russia thinking it's a has-been dysfunctional power on which they can step on and rise by a few feet to maintain its dominance in the global pecking order. `
Obviously the nervousness and decadence that has set in have led the US to miscalculate at several levels. Conflating unthinking European support to mean "international community" support is one.
Confusing its mostly unopposed military interferences across the globe with popular acceptance, even expectation of its continued role as the world's bully is another.
But the most staggering of all is that the US has reached a stage where it can no longer differentiate between reality and the crap it keeps spinning and thinks that Russia and the RoW can't differentiate either.
Sorry for the rambling post. Hope it amuses you...
People addicted to these cheap goods and fast fashion junk bought using social assistance money stay in the illusion of progress and don't cause revolutions. But energy prices going up upsets this opioid dream and cold winters will make people wake up to a harsh reality they've been escaping for a few decades now.
I'm expecting 10x(yellow vests) level unrest this winter unless Europe makes peace with Russia and resolves the energy crisis. China has no pressing reason to invade Taiwan unless the US Ukrainises it - which will still take a few years before they can pose any kind of "threat". But if China does invade for some stupid H&D reasons or for Xitler's legacy, it will throw Europe so badly off its axis that it will be the dark ages again.
Thats the beauty of a globalised, interconnected world. As long as Govts stay sensible - especially the powerful ones, and are willing to de-escalate conflicts before they get bigger, and learn to be a little less greedy, a little more generous and forgiving - it can and has worked beautifully. but economic growth happens in cycles or rather waves of acceleration to an optimal level and then slows, until the next break through innovations happen and the next cycle/wave starts.
Methinks these cyclic slowdown periods before the next cycle of growth starts are especially fragile periods. Corporate profits plateau out or decline, people's purchasing power stagnates or declines a bit and Govts are under pressure to "trigger" the next growth cycle sooner without waiting for some unpredictable innovation breakthru.
But unforeseeable events like the pandemic, uncontrollable bubble bursts like 2008 which was absorbed by creating much bigger bubbles are all pushing up the entropy of a highly globalised world to create super-hotspots that will blow up.
The Ukraine crisis IMO was triggered by a US govt/establishment which is totally at loss to imagine where the post pandemic world will go, and totally lacking confidence in its own capacity to shape the future in a benign and mutually beneficial way. The US no longer sees itself capable of triggering the next growth cycle or even riding along on the wave. Therefore, the US has reacted defensively and tried to protect its dominant position by degrading perceived threat of Russia before they themselves are weakened. This lack of confidence has made them trigger Russia thinking it's a has-been dysfunctional power on which they can step on and rise by a few feet to maintain its dominance in the global pecking order. `
Obviously the nervousness and decadence that has set in have led the US to miscalculate at several levels. Conflating unthinking European support to mean "international community" support is one.
Confusing its mostly unopposed military interferences across the globe with popular acceptance, even expectation of its continued role as the world's bully is another.
But the most staggering of all is that the US has reached a stage where it can no longer differentiate between reality and the crap it keeps spinning and thinks that Russia and the RoW can't differentiate either.
Sorry for the rambling post. Hope it amuses you...
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
A case in point is:Cyrano wrote: But the most staggering of all is that the US has reached a stage where it can no longer differentiate between reality and the crap it keeps spinning and thinks that Russia and the RoW can't differentiate either.
https://www.mediaite.com/politics/retir ... ideo-game/
Retired General and MSNBC Contributor Posts War Footage from Ukraine — Except It’s From a Video Game![]()
By Zachary LeemanMay 17th, 2022, 10:18 am
101 comments
...
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Folks we are posting all over the threads and losing focus.
Few suggestions when posting
1) does the post affect Indian interests?
2) Am I posting to get psychological relief?
Few suggestions when posting
1) does the post affect Indian interests?
2) Am I posting to get psychological relief?
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
I'm guilty of 2) from time to time. The fig leaf I have is "no geopolitical event happens in isolation. Domestic, neighbourhood, alliance/treaty/pact/multilateral compulsions all drive how nations behave, at home and with others - ultimately some of it influences how they behave with India". But I take the point saar ![Smile :)](./images/smilies/smile.gif)
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/smile.gif)
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
When you do that you give others to bandwagon and downward spiral.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Ok, will desist.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 737_1.html
Egypt rejects ship carrying Indian wheat originally intended for Turkey
'We rejected the ship before it entered Egypt,' says Egyptian plant quarantine chief Ahmed El Attar
Agencies, June 4, 2022
Egypt barred the entry of a ship carrying 55,000 tonnes of Indian wheat that was originally intended for Turkey, Egyptian plant quarantine chief Ahmed El Attar said on Saturday.
"We rejected the ship before it entered Egypt," he told Reuters, adding that Turkish quarantine authorities had already blocked the arrival of the vessel.
Separately, Egypt, the world's biggest importer of wheat, was expecting the arrival of its first ever Indian wheat shipment later on Saturday, purchased by the Egyptian private sector.
Supply minister Aly Moselhy said in May that a deal with India to directly purchase 500,000 tonnes of wheat outside the usual tender system had been agreed but not yet signed.
In April, Egypt's agriculture ministry announced it had approved India as a source of wheat supplies as the North African country seeks to supplant purchases disrupted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
India's government confirmed that it would still allow shipments awaiting customs clearance and exports to Egypt.
Moselhy previously said that the Indian ban would not apply to a government deal with Egypt.
Egypt has procured 3.5 million tonnes of local wheat during the harvest season so far, a senior official in the ministry of agriculture told Reuters on Saturday. The wheat procurement season ends in August, he added.
.....
Gautam
If India is limited to supplying wheat just to neighboring Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal Sri Lanka and God forbid Pakistan, who wins? The price of wheat will rise very quickly and US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and some European wheat exporting countries will get a windfall. They will also make sure Russian and Ukrainian wheat does not reach the market. Who looses? The poorer Third World countries in Asia and Africa, who can not pay for food imports. India will make less money, so less import of weapons for the coming war. Also India will be cut down to size. Ukraine is up the creek, but they have other far severe problems to worry about.
Egypt rejects ship carrying Indian wheat originally intended for Turkey
'We rejected the ship before it entered Egypt,' says Egyptian plant quarantine chief Ahmed El Attar
Agencies, June 4, 2022
Egypt barred the entry of a ship carrying 55,000 tonnes of Indian wheat that was originally intended for Turkey, Egyptian plant quarantine chief Ahmed El Attar said on Saturday.
"We rejected the ship before it entered Egypt," he told Reuters, adding that Turkish quarantine authorities had already blocked the arrival of the vessel.
Separately, Egypt, the world's biggest importer of wheat, was expecting the arrival of its first ever Indian wheat shipment later on Saturday, purchased by the Egyptian private sector.
Supply minister Aly Moselhy said in May that a deal with India to directly purchase 500,000 tonnes of wheat outside the usual tender system had been agreed but not yet signed.
In April, Egypt's agriculture ministry announced it had approved India as a source of wheat supplies as the North African country seeks to supplant purchases disrupted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
India's government confirmed that it would still allow shipments awaiting customs clearance and exports to Egypt.
Moselhy previously said that the Indian ban would not apply to a government deal with Egypt.
Egypt has procured 3.5 million tonnes of local wheat during the harvest season so far, a senior official in the ministry of agriculture told Reuters on Saturday. The wheat procurement season ends in August, he added.
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Gautam
If India is limited to supplying wheat just to neighboring Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal Sri Lanka and God forbid Pakistan, who wins? The price of wheat will rise very quickly and US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and some European wheat exporting countries will get a windfall. They will also make sure Russian and Ukrainian wheat does not reach the market. Who looses? The poorer Third World countries in Asia and Africa, who can not pay for food imports. India will make less money, so less import of weapons for the coming war. Also India will be cut down to size. Ukraine is up the creek, but they have other far severe problems to worry about.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Just like our WHO guy ., i think there are some individuals involved who are motivated to do things differently for bribes., the Chinese understand this well., and so it helps their trade practices. But India ?.. not so sure !!.. looking for a rat under every hole is most often not needed.
From the moral high ground this is correct., maybe India should stick to G2G contracts
From the moral high ground this is correct., maybe India should stick to G2G contracts
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
It's a message to India after Dr SJ's recent spanking to EU. Chori aur seena jori attitude.
No problem, Egyptians can eat their sarcophages when the time comes!
No problem, Egyptians can eat their sarcophages when the time comes!
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Dr. Jaishankar mentioned brokers from Singapore etc buying up India's wheat. What I have herrd that much of it is ending up in the stocks of another East Asian country, which will then make a killing on the international market. The Indian Gov. has done well to throw a spanner in their worls.g.sarkar wrote:https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 737_1.html
Egypt rejects ship carrying Indian wheat originally intended for Turkey
'We rejected the ship before it entered Egypt,' says Egyptian plant quarantine chief Ahmed El Attar
Agencies, June 4, 2022
Egypt barred the entry of a ship carrying 55,000 tonnes of Indian wheat that was originally intended for Turkey, Egyptian plant quarantine chief Ahmed El Attar said on Saturday.
"We rejected the ship before it entered Egypt," he told Reuters, adding that Turkish quarantine authorities had already blocked the arrival of the vessel.
Separately, Egypt, the world's biggest importer of wheat, was expecting the arrival of its first ever Indian wheat shipment later on Saturday, purchased by the Egyptian private sector.
Supply minister Aly Moselhy said in May that a deal with India to directly purchase 500,000 tonnes of wheat outside the usual tender system had been agreed but not yet signed.
In April, Egypt's agriculture ministry announced it had approved India as a source of wheat supplies as the North African country seeks to supplant purchases disrupted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
India's government confirmed that it would still allow shipments awaiting customs clearance and exports to Egypt.
Moselhy previously said that the Indian ban would not apply to a government deal with Egypt.
Egypt has procured 3.5 million tonnes of local wheat during the harvest season so far, a senior official in the ministry of agriculture told Reuters on Saturday. The wheat procurement season ends in August, he added.
.....
Gautam
If India is limited to supplying wheat just to neighboring Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal Sri Lanka and God forbid Pakistan, who wins? The price of wheat will rise very quickly and US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and some European wheat exporting countries will get a windfall. They will also make sure Russian and Ukrainian wheat does not reach the market. Who looses? The poorer Third World countries in Asia and Africa, who can not pay for food imports. India will make less money, so less import of weapons for the coming war. Also India will be cut down to size. Ukraine is up the creek, but they have other far severe problems to worry about.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
India is also open to G2G. contracts for wheat shipments., countries in Africa and Europe are welcome to make use of this facility !
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
China has been harding food since well over a year or even two years now. I remember seeing reports about Xi asking Chinese people to avoid food wastage at all costs and asking people to eat less. Was discussed in china threads. So this hoarding is nothing new.
When Chinese banks and some financial co.s are flush with wampum cash, they invest and speculate in all kinds of things where they see an opportunity. So it could be both continued hoarding and speculation.
When Chinese banks and some financial co.s are flush with wampum cash, they invest and speculate in all kinds of things where they see an opportunity. So it could be both continued hoarding and speculation.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Why the fertilizer market could be Russia’s hidden leverage
Economists and policymakers say Russia may have some thus far hidden leverage on Ukraine — and the global food supply.
They worry that self-imposed export restrictions on fertilizer by Russia, the top global provider of the product, could further drive up the cost of food and damage global harvests in 2023 and beyond.
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