Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32277
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chetak »

A Deshmukh wrote:
vimal wrote:What would be the game plan for India? We are entering Pax Americana vs Pax Sinica neither suits us.
Pax Americana vs Pax Sinica and India remaining a neutral third pole might be the way forward.
We can have transactional relations with both sides, without being dragged into active conflicts.
Pax Americana vs Pax Sinica

each power looking to subvert India so that India is under the exclusive and unshared thrall of either Pax Americana or Pax Sinica, while excluding the other

The third pole option suits neither
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5479
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

NRao ji,
I think the 2 prominent poles US+EU and China actually realise that the really unbeatable combination for the future is in fact a Russia+India pole. They have chosen to take on each of them and weaken each.

China did Galwan to check out how India may respond, in terms of capability and will, got mauled and is figuring out what to do next since nearly 3 years now. India has only strengthened meanwhile. For a lot of reasons we know, China cannot take on Russia, and chose to get closer instead, to prevent a solid Russia-India pole from consolidating. The overt support to Russia on the topic of Ukraine must be seen in this light. Modi called China's bluff.

US+EU has strong ties to India, both continue to benefit greatly from a significant Indian diaspora that is productive, law abiding and is a catalyst for their continued development and future growth. So openly antagonising 1.4 billion people who also represent a large market is not a useful calculus. Therefore, the old foe Russia was resurrected and Biden pulled hastily out of Afghanistan and went after Russia, using Ukraine. They never expected to defeat Russia militarily since such a scenario will ultimately lead to a nuclear retaliation. They expected to trigger Russia to start an invasion and then slap so much sanctions that it would collapse Russian economy. The swiftness and extensive nature of the sanctions were announced with zero internal discussion in US or EU tell us that this approach was planned well ahead. Only they didn't work. Putin called the west's bluff.

The steadfast support of India to Russia including oil purchases and Russia supplying loads of discounted oil and keeping up S400 deliveries, bidding for VB trainset manufacturing etc are signs that both countries realise the importance of their mutual rapprochement not just for each other but for the world stage. Both have chosen to extend and expand their geo political reach in complementary ways. India has positioned itself as the voice of the Global South and Russia has made strong inroads into Africa, undercutting decades of French military and US' monetary influence. And both are working actively to reinforce their relations with the Middle East countries, which were already on the upswing.

Western desperation to weaken India-Russia cooperation shows in the form of repeated visits to New Delhi (Scholz, Albanese, King of Denmark (!), FMs of Germany, France, UK, US, plus the G20 meetings) offering arms sales, joint mfg, ToT and what not. Cooperation agreements like iCETs, semi conductor mfg etc have to be seen in this light as well. Such initiatives even when pursued very seriously will take several years to make a visible difference, but in the meanwhile they hope to pull India into their orbit and thus make it costly, messy and unpopular for India to disengage or distance itself from the west later.

China is actually a lost at the moment. Though India has thankfully continued to import Chinese maal at record levels and there is a huge trade balance surplus in China's favour, they know that this is a tap that India can modulate at will and therefore offers no real leverage on India. Russia has come out of West's assault with a stronger economy, revived its industries and shifted its trade and commerce out of ungrateful EU to India, SE Asia and other parts of the world. It may need a lot less of Chinese help than previously expected. Its collaboration with Iran is already many fold and immediately valuable. China might be quite worried that the expected scenario of dependency of a Russia crippled by sanctions and on life-support for Chinese provided militarily equipment has simply not materialised and appears it never will. So while China may not yet be ready to make major policy shifts, its once again testing waters by making reconciliatory statements towards India, and probing the depth of US' anti China rhetoric by increasing its criticism of US's China & Taiwan policy. They still take care to separate US and EU, and keep a neutral policy towards the latter.

India couldn't have hoped for a better set of cards to play its hand. It doesn't need to antagonise any camp, and has something to gain from each side by just being business oriented and realistic, looking out for its own interests. Until the Ukraine situation is resolved, we can stay this course. We will only be stronger in shaping and facing what comes after that.
Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8271
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Dilbu »

India not obligated to buy Russian oil below Western price cap- Indian oil ministry source
India is not obligated to buy Russian oil at rates below the price cap imposed by the Group of Seven (G7) and other Western nations, an Indian oil ministry source told Reuters on Tuesday.

India has not signed any agreement with the Western powers to impose a price cap on Russian oil, added the source, who could not be named due to the confidential nature of the matter.
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19226
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by NRao »

FYI

20 minutes on de-dollarization. And WEF.

Give it a try. Partially explains why India seems to be very confident.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

https://www.ft.com/content/aeb9ef58-6fc ... 6a2a532b3f
https://archive.ph/43H4R Non-paywall
US capitalism is ‘breaking down before our eyes’, says Ken Griffin
Citadel founder argues that refusing to bail out SVB depositors in full would be ‘great lesson in moral hazard’
“The US is supposed to be a capitalist economy, and that’s breaking down before our eyes,” he said in an interview on Monday, a day after US regulators pledged to protect all depositors in SVB — even those with balances above the $250,000 federal insurance limit.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

Image
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19226
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by NRao »

FYI

Armenia has offered to provide a corridor between Iran and Russia, so that India does not have to deal with Azerbaijan and Turkey/Pakistan.

Y. Kanan
BRFite
Posts: 926
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Y. Kanan »

NRao wrote:FYI

20 minutes on de-dollarization. And WEF.

Give it a try. Partially explains why India seems to be very confident.

On a related note, are we on the brink of WW3?

vimal
BRFite
Posts: 1904
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vimal »

https://twitter.com/theLemniscat/status ... 9597123585
Western values

In 2003 Gaddafi agreed to dismantle Libya's WMDs

In 2009 Hillary Clinton welcomed Gaddafi's son, Mutassim, to USDS and said:
"We deeply value the relationship between US and Libya".

Two years later she giggled upon hearing he and his father were brutally lynched
Paul
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3800
Joined: 25 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Paul »

Gaddafi had sent a proposal for his son to marry Chelsea
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19226
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by NRao »

Nothing earth-shattering is yet to be noted. This puts a dent in the WEF's plan and messes EU:

Dutch pro-farmers party wins big in provincial elections
The farmer-friendly FarmerCitizenMovement (BBB) landed a major victory in Wednesday's Dutch provincial elections, which determine the composition of the Senate.

The rural party came from nowhere to finish ahead of Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte's center-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) party in an election seen as a referendum on the government's performance.

The results call into question the Rutte government's ability to implement harsh policies aimed at clamping down on nitrogen emissions from farms, which triggered huge farmers' protests last summer — and confirm BBB's meteoric rise in Dutch politics.


BBB — which had no representative in the Senate before last night's election — is set to win 15 out of 75 seats, becoming the largest force in the Parliament's high chamber (tied with a Labor-Green coalition), ahead of VVD's 10 seats, according to exit polls published by Dutch newswire ANP on Thursday morning.

.........
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

Image
yensoy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2494
Joined: 29 May 2002 11:31
Location: USA

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by yensoy »

NRao wrote:FYI
Armenia has offered to provide a corridor between Iran and Russia, so that India does not have to deal with Azerbaijan and Turkey/Pakistan.
Armenia is landlocked and has few friends. We have been selling them radars and weapons. Not surprising they would offer this, but we still need to go through Georgia which has its own tensions with Russia.
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12195
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Pratyush »

Georgia post the removal of the the western Stooges is taking a neutral position.
Tanaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4521
Joined: 21 Jun 2000 11:31

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Tanaji »

Cross posting:

Hindenburg short seller has posted that another report is inbound soon
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

https://archive.ph/e1VoS
China Is Starting to Act Like a Global Power
Beijing grows bolder in challenging the U.S.-led global order
China is emerging from three years of “zero-Covid” isolation to a far more unfriendly West, and signaling that it feels it has the military and economic heft to start shaping the world more to its interests.
Earlier this month, Beijing surprised the world by brokering a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a bold foray into the Middle East’s turbulent rivalries.
Now, Mr. Xi says he wants to insert himself into efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war, as he returns home from several days of warm meetings in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and plans his first conversation since the beginning of the war with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The moves might not result in lasting diplomatic breakthroughs, and China’s perceived inclination toward Russia on the Ukraine war, highlighted again this week in Moscow, has undercut Mr. Xi’s credibility as a neutral arbiter among Kyiv’s backers. Early Wednesday, as Mr. Xi was preparing to depart Moscow, Russia launched a new wave of missiles and armed drones into Ukraine, killing four people in a school dormitory in the Kyiv region.
But China’s willingness to wade into these conflicts in such a strident way marks a new phase in the country’s vision for itself and its role in the world. It sends a message that China and its friends are no longer obliged to conform to a U.S.-led global order, and that Beijing poses a challenge to Washington as it tries to shape a world it sees as divided between democracies and autocracies.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32277
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chetak »

No OBOR, belt and road, or CPEC like rubbish

and no cheeni and no amriki (who used culinary institute to neo colonize africa after the britshits and the euros were pushed out)

This invitation to India is bound to cause more than a few tremors in certain powerful quarters

these africans want India onlee

Modi's vaccine maitri has worked miracles....

Central African Republic Seeks Indian Firms Like Vedanta To Mine Gold, Uranium

https://www.outlookindia.com/business/c ... ews-235669




Image
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

Image
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19226
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by NRao »

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

I think this is a great topic that we will revisit again and again



Great to see all but don't miss the end
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

https://indianexpress.com/article/opini ... t-8538619/
C Raja Mohan writes: Russia and China’s plan is to divide and rule the West
C Raja Mohan writes: New Delhi can see that their overreach has cemented broad western unity rather than separating Europe from the US
Written by C. Raja Mohan
follow

Updated: April 5, 2023 19:19 IST
Newsguard

China-Russia relations, West divide, and rule

C Raja Mohan writes: If Moscow’s focus is on America’s political fractures, Beijing is deploying China’s market power to undermine Washington’s strategy. (AP/File)


As they deepen their strategic partnership, Russia and China hope that exploiting the divisions within the West will help them transform the global order. The Sino-Russian dream of building a post-Western order has resonance in many parts of the world, including in Delhi. But the Indian strategic community should not hold its breath. The faultlines within the West are real, but they are by no means fatal.

This is not the first time that Moscow and Beijing have talked of upending the world order. The history of international communism in the 20th century was about building a post-Western order. But those dreams came to nought as Russia and China got at each other’s throats and made separate compromises with the West.


Might it be different this time? As he bid goodbye to Vladimir Putin in Moscow last month, Xi Jinping talked of “once-in-a-century changes” that the two leaders were jointly heralding. Moscow and Beijing are convinced that by pooling their strengths — the former’s military/nuclear power and vast natural resources and the latter’s growing economic weight — they can put the West on the defensive. They also bet that with geopolitical coordination of their policies in Europe and Asia, Russia and China can bury 400 years of western hegemony. The success of this strategy rests on the Moscow-Beijing axis successfully leveraging America’s internal fissures and divisions between the US and Europe.

A few days ago, the two top contenders for presidential nomination from the US Republican Party — former president Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis openly challenged Washington’s unlimited military support for Ukraine. What US leaders say in the campaign and from the White House is rarely the same. It was the Trump Administration that named, for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia as a major threat to the US. And it took little time for DeSantis to recant his critique of America’s Ukraine policy. In trying to follow America’s noisy debates, it is easy to forget that there is a strategic core — the deep state if you will — that can develop and sustain long-term policies.

If Moscow’s focus is on America’s political fractures, Beijing is deploying China’s market power to undermine Washington’s strategy. After all, China is the world’s second-biggest economy and has massive economic interdependence with the US. Even as Beijing takes a hard political line towards the Biden Administration, it is teasing Wall Street and US industry to come back and make money in China. Last week at the Boao Forum, the so-called “Davos of China”, the new premier Li Qiang was promising a large audience of CEOs, including Apple’s Tim Cook, to further open its economy. That large sections of the US capital want to return to the “good old days” with China is not in doubt. But political Washington has moved on from “business as usual” with Beijing.

What about dividing America from Europe? Russia’s latest version of its foreign policy doctrine issued last week singles out the US as “the main instigator, organiser and executor of the aggressive anti-Russian policy of the collective West”. Putin often criticises Europe for abandoning its strategic autonomy, but it is the Russian aggression against Ukraine that has pushed Europe back into US protection. China’s love for Europe’s “strategic autonomy” is equally passionate (much like Beijing’s enthusiasm for Delhi’s “non-alignment”).

Beijing has been hoping that the parade of European leaders in China this week would allow it to separate Brussels from Washington. Last week saw Prime Minister of Spain Pedro Sanchez join the Boao forum. This week, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are travelling together to China.

The Sino-European engagement circles around two issues. Europe wants Xi to put pressure on Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Beijing would like Europe to distance itself from the US on its China policy. It is unlikely there will be a decisive movement on either issue, but both sides see the diplomatic dance as a valuable exercise. Europe is not ready to buy China’s so-called peace initiative on Ukraine. As EU foreign policy chief Josef Borrell put it last Friday, China can’t be a mediator in the Ukraine war because, “China does not distinguish between the aggressor and the victim”.

Europe, however, has convinced itself that Xi is the only leader who can nudge Putin towards peace. It is by no means clear if Xi can deliver. But keeping up European hope is a major driver of Xi’s Ukraine diplomacy. On the face of it, Europe does have real incentives to develop a China policy different from the American one. If the Ukraine war has compelled it to reduce its commercial ties with Russia, Europe is loath to lose access to the massive Chinese market because of the deepening Sino-US conflict. After all, total trade between the two economic giants was close to $850 billion in 2022.

Last week, in a major speech von der Leyen said Europe does not want to “decouple” from China because of the massive economic relationship. But at the same time, she said Europe must “de-risk” its commercial ties with China. She argued that EU-China relations had become “more distant and more difficult” as Beijing becomes “repressive at home and assertive abroad”. She outlined several steps to do this: Increasing European competitiveness, reducing dependence on China for critical minerals, greater scrutiny of outbound investment into China, more effective controls on the export of sensitive technologies, and greater collaboration with like-minded countries. Beijing’s ambassador to the EU, Fu Cong slammed the speech as full of “distortions” and accused von der Leyen of pandering to the “China hawks” in Europe and the US.

Beijing might yet hope that the individual countries in the EU might focus more on their business interests with China. Macron, who champions Europe’s “strategic autonomy” from the US, is in China this week with a large business delegation. He will talk commerce but is unlikely to give up on Europe’s Ukraine position.

The new diplomatic jockeying between Europe and China will be of great interest to other powers, including India. Realists in Delhi do note the many differences between the US and Europe but are aware that Western strategic unity has endured since World War II. Delhi knows that Russia and China have now presented existential challenges — military, economic, political, and ideological — to western primacy. It can see that the Russian and Chinese over-reach has cemented broad western unity rather than separating Europe from the US.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5479
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

If Raja Mohan has been listening to Putins speeches, he would have noted Putins complete disillusionment and anger at how deliberately dishonest and nefarious Europe's leaders have been towards Russia, since many years. Hollande and Merkel admitting that Minsk accords were only for buying time for arming Ukraine against Russia, exclusion from WW2 commemorations, coming on top of the glee of imposing every conceivable type of sanctions, open rabid Russophobia displayed by EU countries, Nord Stream terrorism, the dubious ICJ warrant against Putin, refusal to even acknowledge 14000 lives lost in Donbass over a decade, purported international organisations like OSCE, even Red Cross acting in bad faith, regime change attempts in former SU countries... - the cup is runneth over.

Putin has made up his mind that any effort to mend fences with EU is simply not worth it. Putin has no need to divide and rule the west - he will want to prosecute the Ukrainian war to a point where the west will learn the lesson not to engage in such adventures against Russia, for a while at least.

The sanctions have made him take note that there is a whole world out there to the east and the south and he has resolutely turned towards it, more than enough to sustain its economy which is about the size of that of Spain or Italy. That he will start this strategic reorientation by focusing on Russia's oldest friends and biggest economies - China and India is only natural. China may see this as an opportunity to pull Russia close to itself or rather pull itself close to Russia. FWIW, its Xi who called on Putin and not vice versa. By engaging the war in Ukraine and taking on NATO Putin has shown sheer guts and Russia's weathering of sanctions and ability to bounce back are feats Xi can only dream of performing despite his lifetime mandate. I see it as Xi bathing in Putin's reflected glory and not the other way round.

The stating of India along with China as a key ally in Russia's security policy document openly hedges its relationship with China against its relationship with India. Putin is clearly not putting all his Fabergé eggs blindly into the Chinese basket.

As to China trying to exploit fault lines in the west by cajoling Europe - this is just business as usual. China needs Europe market access as much as it needs US market access. Where else will they sell a large part of all that they manufacture? And EU nations know perfectly well that the only way to keep the people of their steadily declining economies from large scale revolt, is to let cheap Chinese goods flow in to keep up some facade of purchasing power for ordinary households - never mind preachy sermons from Brussels. This has been going on for years, nothing's new due to recent Xi-Putin huggings.

WRT the US, China I think will stay patient, make some push-back comments now and then and ride out this administration. Putin would have given Xi his assessment of NATO/US military strengths and weaknesses as made apparent in Ukraine. When your adversary is over-extending himself already, there is no need to jump in panic.

As for India, we should order another bag of popcorn for now and continue to build our economy and goodwill. And keep the powder dry, just in case...
chanakyaa
BRFite
Posts: 1723
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 00:09
Location: Hiding in Karakoram

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chanakyaa »

Zimbabwe Makes Banking Changes (Gold, USD peg, fight against inflation)
(Zimbabwe's Monetary Policy Committee member Ashok Chakravarti)
Inflation ravaged Zimbabwe launched its circulating Mosi-Oa-Tunya or Smoke that Thunders 1-ounce .9167 fine gold coins in July in hopes the smoke and thunder will resonate sufficiently to help tame the economy.

Mosi-Oa-Tunya is the local name for Victoria Falls, one of the few assets in the African nation that has not been impacted by the out-of-control spiraling inflation. The gold coins were issued as legal tender due to people exchanging their Zimbabwe dollars for U.S. dollars to protect their purchasing power. The new gold coins are also meant to incentivize the nation’s largest gold miners to produce more than their state-planned targets.
...
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32277
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chetak »

Maybe something of interest to India's L&T

Image
RoyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5620
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by RoyG »

My prediction is that BRICS w/ the addition of SA become powerful veto members of some kind of UN alternative. New rules, new UN like org. SCO expansion to other parts of the globe could be it. Maybe something else will come up.
ricky_v
BRFite
Posts: 1144
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ricky_v »

the germans cannot stop winning in africa, alternative titles: chad lives up to its name; analena baerbock is one of the greatest foreign ministers of any country
https://www.dw.com/en/chad-expels-germa ... a-65262678
Chad has ordered the German ambassador to leave the country due to his "impolite attitude" and "lack of respect for diplomatic customs," the country's Communication Ministry said.

Jan-Christian Gordon Kricke, who has been serving as Germany's ambassador to Chad since 2021, was given 48 hours to leave the central African country on Friday.

The two-line statement posted by the ministry did not expand on the reasons it gave for Kricke's expulsion.
RoyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5620
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by RoyG »

ricky_v wrote:the germans cannot stop winning in africa, alternative titles: chad lives up to its name; analena baerbock is one of the greatest foreign ministers of any country
https://www.dw.com/en/chad-expels-germa ... a-65262678
Chad has ordered the German ambassador to leave the country due to his "impolite attitude" and "lack of respect for diplomatic customs," the country's Communication Ministry said.

Jan-Christian Gordon Kricke, who has been serving as Germany's ambassador to Chad since 2021, was given 48 hours to leave the central African country on Friday.

The two-line statement posted by the ministry did not expand on the reasons it gave for Kricke's expulsion.
Good post. Shows how Africa being left without UNSC permanent seat will continue to be disrespected. My predictions of an alternative UN which will form out of BRICS+SA with South Africa being a veto member will give Africa a voice. Same goes for Brazil and South America.

In many ways the diplomatic initiative by India has been a source of pride for the global south and they are now following India's lead. Jaishankar has been slapping the shit out the white man in their own forums.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5479
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

India is breaking into another holy house mostly hidden from public view but very influential in ways non apparent :

India elected to ‘highest’ UN statistical body for 4-year term: Jaishankar
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 0-amp.html
India secured an overwhelming 46 out of 53 votes. A second candidate is yet to be decided between South Korea and China and the balloting process will resume later in the day for electing the remaining Asia Pacific States member.

India was elected by secret ballot while Argentina, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Ukraine, the United Republic of Tanzania and the United States of America were elected by acclamation for a four-year term of office beginning January 1, 2024.

“India elected to the highest UN statistical body for a 4-year term beginning on 1 January 2024! Congrats Team @IndiaUNNewYork for coming through so strongly in a competitive election,” External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said in a tweet on Wednesday.

He added that India’s "expertise in the field of statistics, diversity & demography has earned it a seat on the UN Statistical Commission.”

The current members from the Asia-Pacific States are Japan (2024), Samoa (2024) as well as Kuwait and Republic of Korea, whose terms are ending this year.

The United Nations Statistical Commission, established in 1947, is the highest body of the global statistical system bringing together the Chief Statisticians from member states from around the world.

It is the highest decision making body for international statistical activities, responsible for setting of statistical standards and the development of concepts and methods, including their implementation at the national and international level.

The Commission consists of 24 member countries of the United Nations elected by the United Nations Economic and Social Council on the basis of an equitable geographical distribution.

Five members are from African States, four from Asia-Pacific States, four from Eastern European States, four from Latin American and Caribbean States and seven members from Western European and other States.
ricky_v
BRFite
Posts: 1144
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ricky_v »

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 023-04-07/
RIYADH/ADEN, April 7 (Reuters) - Saudi and Omani envoys are planning to visit Yemen's capital Sanaa next week to negotiate a permanent ceasefire deal with Iran-aligned Houthi officials and end an eight-year-old conflict there, two people involved in the talks said.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/us-na ... st/2867195
The US Navy said Saturday it had deployed a nuclear-powered submarine equipped with missiles to the Middle East region.

In a statement, US Navy spokesman Timothy Hawkins said submarine Florida entered the area on Thursday and began crossing the Suez Canal.

“It is capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles,” Hawkins said.

The submarine is “deployed to US Fifth Fleet to help ensure regional maritime security and stability,” the statement said.

Bahrain is the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet, whose operations include the Gulf region, the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Red Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean. It is stationed in the Juffair area, east of the Bahraini capital, Manama.
ricky_v
BRFite
Posts: 1144
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ricky_v »

RoyG wrote: Good post. Shows how Africa being left without UNSC permanent seat will continue to be disrespected. My predictions of an alternative UN which will form out of BRICS+SA with South Africa being a veto member will give Africa a voice. Same goes for Brazil and South America.
the best place to look at african unity would be the african union, the division are very apparent, the first clear divide is between the bantus, the nilotes and the arabs / berber in the north; whites effectively have only ~3 states in varied states of effective power (sa, namibia, botswana), in the bantu west, the francophone areas, the writ of france is still effective.. khoisan are for all intents and purposes powerless at a state level.

2) the western bantus are further divided into religion, the clash of islam and christianity is most prevalent in bantu areas... but that maybe because people have shorter memories for conflicts in nilotic heavy areas, dakar, kahrtoum, the continuing tigray. There is no effective conflict resolution methods adopted by the au here, given that the rest of the world does not even mention these conflicts, they have an open mandate to decisively deal with it, but they do not, instead camps are effectively formed and championed for all conflicts

3) we have not even reached a conflict level of the med states with the subsaharans*, that will give the first indication that the au has matured, as matters stand, even power politics are fragmented and must be dealt on a micro instead of a macro level power dealings between states, institutions, i believe that a un veto for the au is still a ways off

* added later - well, libya after 2011's version of freedom and democracy did experience some conflict between subsaharans and the med states (the southern med states to be precise, moroco, tunisia, algeria, libya, egypt), but that was due to extreme disturbance caused by freedom forces
sanman
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2303
Joined: 22 Mar 2023 11:02

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by sanman »

drnayar
BRFite
Posts: 924
Joined: 29 Jan 2023 18:38

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by drnayar »

Image


hastings was the 1st NATO secy gen.

As in all systems, you won’t see where your weakness are until it is put under stress. NATO is no different. The weak spots can be seen in stark relief.

Anglo-America: when in doubt, send lawyers, guns, and money. GBR and USA have stepped up to the front to try to make any move against UKR riskier to the Russians and to bolster front-line NATO states’ resolve.

Need Encouragement: DNK, NOR, ITA, and NLD can usually be convinced to lean in firmly if the Anglo-Americans do. So far, they seem – to varying degrees – willing.

Former Warsaw Pact: Except for HUN who seems to want to play some type of two-sides game with Russia, the other former Warsaw Pact nations know what Russia can be and are holding strong. Led by POL, the nations of CZE, SVK, ROU, and BGR are either outright providing aid or are helping to strengthen alliance presence at their eastern borders.

Baltic Republics: LTU, LVA, and EST. They are doing all they can and as a result deserve even more support from the alliance.

The Conflicted: Due to internal political disagreements or being just too poor to take risk, these NATO nations can be relied on to be at best passively neutral to help-me-if-you-can; HRV, ALB, SVN, MNE, and MKD.

The Floaters: These nations will vary from “I’m-not-here-don’t-look-at-me” to “I’ll-pretend-like-nothing-new-is-happening-and-will-send-something-if-it-was-already-scheduled.” They will generally be open to do something if they have to, but would prefer to let someone else do the spending and bleeding. All friend groups have these guys; CAN, PRT, ICL, ESP, LUX, GRC, and BEL.

The Ottomans: the Turks are in their own category, as usual. They are happy to sell weapons and support to the Ukrainians if for no other reasons than to twist the knife in the Russians for taking that territory from them in the 18th and 19th Century…but will do so on their terms to their gain on their schedule.

The Old Powers: “Free rider” might be too nice of a word here to describe what the Germans are doing. DEU is using 20th Century excuses – plus some 19th century mercantilist perfidies, to excuse herself from acting like a responsible power. I wish this was just some ham-fisted iteration of Ospolitik, but I don’t think we are that lucky. DEU has allowed her governing elite to enrich themselves by putting energy needs of their nation in the hands of the Russians. They continue to be the welfare queen of nations. Though the world’s #4 arms exporter, she only spends 1.5% of GDP on her defense compared to POL’s 2.2%, FRA’s 2.1%, and GBR’s 2.3%. The USA spends 3.2%. DEU needs to be more like POL, and less like ITA (1.5%).

FRA … well, she is not being like DEU and isn’t being GBR either. She is being FRA. That means that she is mostly looking for ways to manipulate this event to better bolster the European Union (EU). With DEU under weaker leadership, this opens the door wider to more French EU power. With the EU now free of Anglo-Saxon influence post-BREXIT, the continental powers have an opening to get back to the old games – this time with more lawyers and fewer infantry.

And so, here we are. These fault lines existed pre-Ukraine22 but are now more clearly defined. If you push The Conflicted, The Ottomans, and The Floaters to the side you can see where NATO’s problem is - Germany.

DEU has the strongest economy and largest population in European NATO. She should have the largest military and the unquestioned land force … but she does not. She is willing to defend Europe to the last Pole, and DEU to the last American. She likes her Bismarckian largess to her people, and her graft to her retired politicians. If you object, they play victim-to-our-past to make you look the other way.

Her leaders need a psychologist more than anything else, but we must deal with the reality of her as an ally. She cannot, under her present leadership, be counted on to support weaker European nations from Russian intimidation. She cannot be reliably counted on to push back economically against Russia. As designed by Russia, she is too compromised by energy reliance long in the making that has been in the open for all to see.

Until DEU takes her place as a fully participating member of the Western alliance, we will have to work around her. For a quarter century I have wanted less, not more of a US military presence in Europe. Keep combined logistics and training areas, but except for exercises or actual events, bring almost all our land forces home. We have mostly done that, but we are also in the “actual events” category right now.

Who has “earned” a reassuring presence of US forces? The Baltic Republics and the former Warsaw Pact nations, clearly. The British – who don’t need our reassurances but should be given the nod in a variety of ways.

Though FRA is just being FRA, DEU is being something altogether. If anything, it needed to overcompensate in the UKR crisis due to their business dealings with the Russian government and oligarchs. No, they don’t need to do anything more than GBR, but the could have allowed the Estonians to send UKR the artillery instead of blocking it

https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/uk ... -divisions
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5479
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

All this is indeed great analysis, but alas misguided. Why is the option of engaging Russia and it's satillite states in trade and commerce to create beneficial interdependencies almost NEVER considered as a serious option?

One can complain about Germany's low military spend, and overall European nations have been spending less precisely because of interdependencies imposed by the EU model (however good or bad they may be - that's a different debate) which reduced greatly the interest of armed conflict between European nations.

In the absence of any cogent reason put forth by western analysts as to why closer economic ties can't be used to derisk Europe vs Russia, I can only surmise that Europeans have failed to realise the true value of peace and have habituated to being willing accomplices to US war mongering for many years. Until now the death and destruction was faraway, in the Borell's jungle. This time it's happening on the edge of the garden and threatens it directly, and by a formidable enemy the west has needlessly created, stoked and provoked against itself.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

Foreign Affairs article on US China competition.

https://twitter.com/KaiserKuo/status/16 ... 3fe4w&s=19
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32277
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chetak »

@DDNewslive·Apr 11

French President #EmmanuelMacron has caused a stir by saying Europe has no interest in accelerating the conflict in Taiwan and should become a "third pole" independent of both Washington and Beijing
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5479
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

Chinese medicine talking
drnayar
BRFite
Posts: 924
Joined: 29 Jan 2023 18:38

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by drnayar »

RoyG wrote:
ricky_v wrote:the germans cannot stop winning in africa, alternative titles: chad lives up to its name; analena baerbock is one of the greatest foreign ministers of any country
https://www.dw.com/en/chad-expels-germa ... a-65262678
Good post. Shows how Africa being left without UNSC permanent seat will continue to be disrespected. My predictions of an alternative UN which will form out of BRICS+SA with South Africa being a veto member will give Africa a voice. Same goes for Brazil and South America.

In many ways the diplomatic initiative by India has been a source of pride for the global south and they are now following India's lead. Jaishankar has been slapping the shit out the white man in their own forums.
i think there will be a great many takers for this idea among the middle eastern and south east asian countries as well., could very well become a powerful political force beyond the UN which will increasingly lose its appeal and credibility., given the anglo saxon hold on it. and as a sage european friend noted , europes days as a power of any right is over , the days of squabble , inter-conflicts and armed terrorism that has long been the bane of west asia and many asian countries would finally come home to roost where it all originated as ideas to divide and rule. karma finally coming back a full circle.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32277
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chetak »

as you sow, so shall you reap

Image


the gora morons are soon going to end up working for and doing menial labor for the jihadis whom they allowed entry into their countries so that they would do the gora's menial jobs.

These jihadis have all moved into readymade infrastructure, social setup, and running economies. Gaping cracks have already appeared in the socio politico facades of these foolish countries and their social fabrics have been torn apart, over burdened by billowing welfare payments, housing and healthcare.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32277
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chetak »

Lots of dirt, a long handled broom, and another convenient carpet under which to efficiently brush this consignment of dirt

It's such a smooth and practiced move that is coordinated and covered up by a cohort of woke collaborators around the globe...

so, exactly whose "truth" is this...

In the name and also in the interests of double standards

NYT claims it speaks "truth to power".

Now it says it may be in nobody's interest to find the truth.

This is the bitter truth of western normative framework.
@nytimes
Intelligence leaks surrounding who blew up most of the Russian-backed Nord Stream pipelines last September have provided more questions than answers. It may be in no one’s interest to reveal more.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/07/worl ... tw-nytimes

the news is dated but neither the news nor the self serving interests behind façade of this news coverage are in the interests of the amriki state.

Seymour Hersh's brilliantly researched article, "How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline." has set the cat among the pigeons and has raised lots of very uncomfortable questions for the amriki state, deep or otherwise.

This guy hersh came out of left field and also, hersh is far too big and far too famous for anyone to suppress
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2022/12 ... lonialism/
British empire killed 165 million Indians in 40 years: How colonialism inspired fascism
A scholarly study found that British colonialism caused approximately 165 million deaths in India from 1880 to 1920, while stealing trillions of dollars of wealth. The global capitalist system was founded on European imperial genocides, which inspired Adolf Hitler and led to fascism.
Post Reply