Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

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Dilbu
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Dilbu »

China preparing for invasion: Taiwan FM
Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu claimed on August 9 that Beijing was encircling the island with air and sea manoeuvres to get ready for an invasion and alter the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific. "China has used the drills and its military playbook to prepare for the invasion of Taiwan," Joseph Wu told a press conference in Taipei. "China's real intention is to alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and entire region."
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

the drills could turn into an invasion at any moment !!
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Aditya_V »

I think.it should be attempted by PRC
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Dilbu »

US Carries Out Intercontinental Missile Test Delayed Over Chinese Drills
Washington: The United States successfully tested a long-range, nuclear-capable ballistic missile Tuesday after twice postponing the launch to avoid stoking tensions over Ukraine and Taiwan, the Air Force announced. The Air Force Global Strike Command launched the unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile over the Pacific from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California just after midnight local time.

The missile carried a test re-entry vehicle, which in a strategic conflict could be armed with a nuclear warhead.

The reentry vehicle traveled about 4,200 miles (6,760 kilometers) to the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands in the western Pacific.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

Late Darya Platanova

Ukraine as Clash if Civilizations

She was killed in a car bomb in Moscow.

Very fascinating dialog
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by chanakyaa »

Oil/gas politics reaching climax #Europe #Ukraine #Russia

Price cap movement started few months ago, but it got negotiated just in time when nat gas was about to be turned off. India likely to be dragged into this again, when it is not impacted by the price cap or its discounted purchase likely below expected price cap. In practice though, the price cap measure is likely to screw OPEC+ collectively, where price is disconnected from supply/demand, unless OPEC+ producers collectively respond by reducing supply of oil, which will send the prices to the moon.

Expectedly, conflicts in other regions of providers of energy markedly went up int the past 3 months -- Armenia/Azerbaijan (for gas) and Iraq

G7 Agrees On Oil Price Cap As Moscow Threatens To Halt Gas Supply To Europe (looks like Nord Stream has been stopped)
  • G7 finance ministers agree on Russian oil price cap.
  • The per-barrel level of the price cap would be determined later "based on a range of technical inputs", the group noted.
  • Some G7 officials have expressed concerns that the price cap could fail if China and India do not participate.
The G7 group of the most industrialized nations agreed on Friday to finalize and implement a price cap on Russian oil, aiming to reduce Vladimir Putin’s oil revenues for his war chest.
....
Russian oil price cap wins G7 support, but level still to be determined
“Today we confirm our joint political intention to finalise and implement a comprehensive prohibition of services which enable maritime transportation of Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products globally,” the statement by finance ministers from the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan read.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

They are talking but without actually revealing how the price cap mechanism is going to work. Given Jenet Yellen has been pushing this idea for a couple of months atleast, they do have some mechanism in mind, I suspect they discussed it already druing last G7+ in Germany where NaMo was invited. I saw some reports in France at that time that NaMo was open to it.

Now they seem to have progressed on the mechanism at G7 level and without revealing much, they are trying to pressure China and India to commit to it blind fold.

Of course they don't believe they can force China into it, so they will focus on India and gang up on us and hard sell. Right now Eu press is reporting India will not join this scheme and buying from Russia to drum up public opinion against India... But why would India care?

What's absurd is, if G7 stops buying Russian oil altogether, then price cap is irrelevant.

If G7 is intending to buy Russian oil at some capped price then they need to take delivery, so the transportation prohibition doesn't make sense.

OPEC+ includes Russia, and they won't come under this cap? There will be a capped price in $ for Russia which won't sell in dollars, and G7 will block it's transport so no buyers, and a free float market price in $ for other sellers? Won't that push the price of oil even higher?!

What about rebadged/reblended/reprocessed oil Europe is buying from China, perhaps even from India at a far higher price than direct from Russia before? They will continue that ??

Something really sinister or totally stupid is cooking here.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

Unless they try to enforce the price limit on other countries, intrusive checks on high seas and financial checks via insurance companies
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

Some propaganda YouTube influencer stooges (like Joe Blogs for ex) are already talking about getting the whole world to boycott Russian gas and oil by means of secondary sanctions next year - an attempt to legitimise the concept of secondary sanctions in public discourse from now itself and make it seem like a natural thing to do - for the west at least...

China and India are prime targets given how much we can buy. Since China is feared, and India can be reasoned with, expecting lot of attention to be showered on India.

If these hoity-toities survive a winter with cold showers that is... :D
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... m-pipeline
Gas prices soar and pound and euro fall as Russia shuts Nord Stream pipeline
European countries scramble to store as much gas as possible before winter as they brace for shortages
Jasper Jolly and Graeme Wearden, Mon 5 Sep 2022

Gas prices surged on Monday and the pound and euro slumped after Russia shut down a big pipeline indefinitely.
Russia has used its control of gas supplies to exert pressure on European countries in retaliation against sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine. Gazprom, the Russian state-controlled gas company, closed the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany on Friday, saying it had found a leak requiring repair.
The threatened cuts to supplies of gas from Russia have prompted a scramble by European countries to store as much gas as possible before winter, as well as efforts to find alternative supplies.
However, the prospect of Russia cutting off an important pipeline completely caused prices to rise on Monday, as investors braced for severe shortages. The contract for gas delivery next month in the UK soared by 35% at one stage, and was about 12% higher in afternoon trading at 465p a therm. That was an increase from the 410p a therm cost on Friday afternoon, and approaching the five-month high of nearly 650p set last month.
Winter gas prices were also up sharply. The wholesale UK gas contract for November and December both jumped about 15%, near to last month’s record highs.
The benchmark Dutch TTF October gas contract rose by up to 30%, up €62 to €272 a megawatt hour.
The threat of gas shortages has also deepened concerns over recession risks in economies dependent on the fuel for industry and electricity generation, including the UK and the EU. That has caused their currencies to weaken as investors seek safety in the US dollar and reduce exposure to an economy that may have to cut back industrial production meaningfully.
The euro hit a 20-year low against the US dollar, falling as low as $0.9879 in early trading on Monday.
On the day that Liz Truss was confirmed as the UK’s next prime minister, the pound hit $1.1444, its lowest value against the dollar since the early days of Covid-19 in March 2020. Truss is expected to reveal her plans to mitigate the energy crisis in the coming days.
......
Gautam
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Dilbu »

Biden admin reverses Trump's decision, approves USD 450 mn F-16 fleet sustainment programme to Pakistan
Washington: Reversing the decision of its predecessor, the Biden Administration has approved a whooping USD 450 million F-16 fighter jet fleet sustainment programme to Pakistan.

As a notification to the US Congress, the State Department has made a determination approving a possible foreign military sale of F-16 case for sustainment and related equipment for an estimated cost of USD 450 million, arguing that this will sustain Islamabad's capability to meet current and future counterterrorism threats by maintaining its F-16 fleet.
This is the first major security assistance to Pakistan after Trump in 2018 had announced to stop all defense and security assistance to Pakistan alleging that Islamabad was not a partner in its fight against terrorism.

"The United States Government has notified Congress of a proposed Foreign Military Sales case to sustain the Pakistan Air Force's F-16 programme. Pakistan is an important counterterrorism partner, and as part of longstanding policy, the United States provides life cycle maintenance and sustainment packages for US-origin platforms," a State Department spokesperson said.

"Pakistan's F-16 programme is an important part of the broader United States-Pakistan bilateral relationship. The proposed sale will sustain Pakistan's capability to meet current and future counterterrorism threats by maintaining its F-16 fleet. The F-16 fleet allows Pakistan to support counterterrorism operations and we expect Pakistan to take sustained action against all terrorist groups," the spokesperson further said in response to a question.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Pratyush »

US is what US does.

This is exactly the reason why I am not impressed with CAASTA.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Dilbu »

Putin warns 'no gas, no oil' to countries that cap prices
Russia will stop delivering oil and gas supplies to countries that introduce price caps, President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday.

Capping prices, as some Western countries are considering, "would be an absolutely stupid decision," Putin told the Eastern Economic Forum in the Pacific port city of Vladivostok.

"We will not supply anything at all if it is contrary to our interests, in this case economic (interests)," he said. "No gas, no oil, no coal, no fuel oil, nothing."

G7 industrialised powers on Friday vowed to move urgently towards implementing a price cap on Russian oil imports, in a bid to cut off a major source of funding for Moscow's military action in Ukraine.

Putin said Russia would respect its contractual obligations and hoped other countries would do the same.

"Those who are trying to impose something on us are in no position today to dictate their will," Putin said.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

Dilbu wrote:Putin warns 'no gas, no oil' to countries that cap prices
Russia will stop delivering oil and gas supplies to countries that introduce price caps, President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday.

Capping prices, as some Western countries are considering, "would be an absolutely stupid decision," Putin told the Eastern Economic Forum in the Pacific port city of Vladivostok.

"We will not supply anything at all if it is contrary to our interests, in this case economic (interests)," he said. "No gas, no oil, no coal, no fuel oil, nothing."

G7 industrialised powers on Friday vowed to move urgently towards implementing a price cap on Russian oil imports, in a bid to cut off a major source of funding for Moscow's military action in Ukraine.

Putin said Russia would respect its contractual obligations and hoped other countries would do the same.

"Those who are trying to impose something on us are in no position today to dictate their will," Putin said.

Well the west will then buy Russian gas and oil derivatives from China at 5 times the cost :rotfl: Who are they kidding ?
Hypocrites becoming idiots for not wanting to look like hypocrites.
Mean time oil transfers and "mixing" in high seas has jumped several fold making middle agents and shippers very rich
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Guddu »

I am sure Bitcoin has been discussed before, and the Indian govt is not very supportive of it. Having said that, and having studied it for several years now, I continue to believe that it could be a matter of national security to own it, sort of like digital gold. Apart from El Salvador, where BTC is legal tender, most govts are afraid of it. In the US, Jason Lowery a US military Space Force staff and National Defense Fellow is submitting a Masters thesis at MIT.
He has for a long time argued why the US must print dollars and buy BTC as well as mine it as a national imperative. He can be found on twitter @JasonPLowery
Image

Happy to discuss more, if there is interest. Please feel free to move it to appropriate thread as needed.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

My fundamental problem with Bitcoin is that it's backed by nothing. So it's the interest of future buyers which keeps its value up. A giant ponzi scheme where the earliest entrants on the top of the pyramid gain a lot at the expense of late entrants who will be left holding the stick. Idem for the other virtual currencies.

Also the value is and can be volatile or highly volatile. Which invites speculative sharks who can devour common investors like me.

Why should a nation invest in ie support a digital currency it can't control instead of its own traditional currency which it can control to a large extent ?

If there are good arguments contrary to the above, I'm all ears...
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by rags »

kit wrote:

Well the west will then buy Russian gas and oil derivatives from China at 5 times the cost :rotfl: Who are they kidding ?
Hypocrites becoming idiots for not wanting to look like hypocrites.
Mean time oil transfers and "mixing" in high seas has jumped several fold making middle agents and shippers very rich

This exactly what Paki's are doing with India imports through Dubai. Does this mean Pakis are as intelligent as the Oiropeans?
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Pratyush »

It just means that Europeans have reached the same level of intelligence as bakistan.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

They are doing that precisely.
Make China Rich Again.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/202 ... -the-gate/
Indian Democracy at 75: Who Are the Barbarians at the Gate?
According to the influential Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Indian democracy has been in decline ever since Mr. Modi first took office in 2014, with its international ranking falling from number 27 in the world (just below Belgium) to number 46 (two spots below South Africa). The EIU now labels India a “flawed democracy” characterised by “serious deterioration in the quality of democracy under leader Narendra Modi”.[1] Sweden’s university-based Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-DEM) ranks India even lower, at 101st in the world for electoral democracy (two places above Myanmar) and 97th in the world for liberal democracy (one place above Papua New Guinea). Indeed, it claims that India is no longer a liberal democracy at all, but is now an “electoral autocracy” on a par with Russia.[2] The American government-funded think tank Freedom House now considers India to be only “partially free”, with an overall freedom rank of tied-85th in the world. It lists the Indian union territory of Jammu and Kashmir as “unfree”.[3]

Whether or not these evaluations are credible, they have the power to shape popular perceptions, and ultimately to influence international affairs. Governments in major democracies like the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and indeed Australia generally seek to conduct moral foreign policies, and frequently come under pressure to sanction countries that are widely perceived to be violating democratic norms. Should India come to be seen as an ‘autocracy’ that is only ‘partially free’, it might become more difficult for Western governments to cooperate with India on global and regional security. For example, the “Quad” alignment of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States is based on a ‘shared values’ narrative that includes a commitment to “the principles of freedom, rule of law, [and] democratic values”.[4] To the extent that India comes to be perceived as not acceding to these principles, Western willingness to use the Quad as a regional mechanism may decline.

Such consequences would be well-deserved—if they are grounded in reality. If Narendra Modi and the BJP really are the barbarians at the gate of Indian democracy, assaulting the country’s liberal institutions from within and transforming the country into a Russian-style “electoral autocracy”, Western governments certainly should become more wary of cooperating with India. If, however, the academics, intellectuals, and think-tankers who staff the major rankings providers are themselves the barbarians at the gate, maligning a poor but proud country in a bid to impose their own parochial political positions, then a moral reckoning is in order. Ordinary non-Indians, even parliamentarians and business leaders who are not specifically focused on Indian affairs, cannot realistically be expected to form their own, independent evaluations of Indian democracy. They must rely on the opinions of credible experts, and they inevitably turn to establishment organisations like the EIU, V-DEM, and Freedom House for insightful, impartial advice. Any abuse of that trust in the pursuit of partisan or particularist interests should call into question their entire model of practice.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Cyrano »

A good discussion, especially the first 30 mins when they talk about India, Dr SJ and Modi...

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Haresh »

vijayk wrote:https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/202 ... -the-gate/
Indian Democracy at 75: Who Are the Barbarians at the Gate?
Interesting article.
One comment that stood out was this

"whitelaughter
Since Modi was elected, I’ve watched as reports of religious persecution of Christians in India climb, and climb, and climb. Further, we know that the only reason Modi is in favour of Israel is so there is somewhere he can send the Jews. So, no, not going to assume that every watchdog is simultaneously getting it wrong without serious evidence."

These christian fanatics are very good at projecting their evil onto others.
every member of the nazi party, the SS, Gestapo, every concentration camp guard was at one time christened, they seem quick to forget that.

I was going to reply, however I think you have to be a paid subscriber.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Vayutuvan »

I read that comment and wanted to reply but didn't; same reason.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by g.sarkar »

Haresh wrote: These christian fanatics are very good at projecting their evil onto others.
every member of the nazi party, the SS, Gestapo, every concentration camp guard was at one time christened, they seem quick to forget that.
The stronghold of the NSDAP was Southern Germany. A great number of the party members were nominally Catholics (this included Hitler). I say nominally, as they had plans to replace Catholicism with something else, that was more easy to mold into their ideology. The ceremonies developed by the NSDAP was often based on Nordic Pagan rituals. The Protestant parts of Germany (that included Berlin) came into Party control at a much later stage, so the members with seniority and power were Catholics from South Germany. The Catholic Church had often cooperated with the Party, but this was denied after the war. The concentration guards were mostly non-Germans from the occupied East European countries. This was due to the fact that most German males were fighting the Russians in the Eastern Front and could not be spared. So, we often see guards who were Ukrainian, so they were Orthodox, though there was significant number of Catholics in Western Ukrainian areas. The Concentration Camp management was always in the hand of Germans who again could be Catholics mainly. There were also many Catholics, among the victims. Even amongst the inmates there was a strict hierarchy, with the German speaking non-Jew at the top and the Non-German speaking Jew (and Roma, we tend to forget them) at the bottom. So, being a Christian could save your life. The ability to speak German could mean that you would live and not be sent to the Gas chambers.
Gautam
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »



Rampant racism in Europe
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/ ... -it-brings

New U.S. guidance on the planned Russian oil price cap could cause a significant escalation in the energy crisis should Moscow decide to restrict oil exports. In guidance published Sept. 9, the U.S. Treasury Department threatened to sanction entities that do not comply with the G-7 price cap and the EU insurance ban when using Western insurers. But it also sought to give safe harbor for insurers and other financial institutions, which are effectively tasked with implementing the price cap, by laying out the steps and documentation needed to comply with the cap. The Treasury Department hopes the guidance will facilitate the transport of Russian oil under the price cap and avoid a crisis where insurers and other financial institutions forgo covering trade involving Russian crude oil. It also hopes the guidance gives the G-7's price cap teeth by showing that the United States is willing to use sanctions
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by James »

^^ Aha, so that's what its all about. The safe harbour institutions will insist on the transactions being done only in USD, thus effectively extending the hegemony of the petro-dollar which had started to erode of late. As of now, buyers of Russian crude oil are free to price it in other currencies (and actually do this at Russia's request). Once the price cap mechanism is in place, the institutions (financial and insurance) can insist on USD transactions only. Russia can either agree to price in USD or lose out on sales altogether. Either way, petro dollar supremacy prevails. And if countries still want to buy in other currencies outside the price-cap mechanism, the threat of sanctions is ever looming. Lets see how this pans out in practice.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 255_1.html
Projects worth Rs 75,000 crore on Great Nicobar island shown green flag
The projects will need the felling of over 800,000 trees and the loss of 12-20 hectares of mangrove forests, leading to a considerable loss to corals and claiming over 298 hectares of the sea bed
BS Web Team | New Delhi, September 15, 2022

The environment ministry's panel on Wednesday approved the controversial 16,610 hectares project on Great Nicobar island. The project that is expected to cost Rs 75,000 crore will include the construction of a greenfield international airport, an international container terminal, a township, and a power plant, a report by Economic Times (ET) stated.
"The Indian Ocean Region in general and the Indian Ocean, in particular, has turned into a strategic hotspot in recent years. In response to the increasing strategic value of this IOR, a critical mass of development in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands is necessary for strengthening India's regional presence", the report said, according to ET.
The island was declared a biosphere reserve in 1989 and was included in UNESCO's man and biosphere programme in 2013. The report added that the projects will need the felling of over 850,000 trees and the loss of 12-20 hectares of mangrove forests. This will lead to a considerable loss to corals and will claim over 298 hectares of the sea bed.
......
Gautam
If I remember correctly, there used to be a A&N thread. Could not find it.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 255_1.html
Projects worth Rs 75,000 crore on Great Nicobar island shown green flag
The projects will need the felling of over 800,000 trees and the loss of 12-20 hectares of mangrove forests, leading to a considerable loss to corals and claiming over 298 hectares of the sea bed
BS Web Team | New Delhi, September 15, 2022

The island was declared a biosphere reserve in 1989 and was included in UNESCO's man and biosphere programme in 2013. The report added that the projects will need the felling of over 850,000 trees and the loss of 12-20 hectares of mangrove forests. This will lead to a considerable loss to corals and will claim over 298 hectares of the sea bed.
......
Gautam
If I remember correctly, there used to be a A&N thread. Could not find it.
yes., i had posted details for the same in the old thread., it was the economy thread i think.

The Indian Ocean Region in general and the Indian Ocean in particular has turned into a strategic hotspot in recent years. In response to the increasing strategic value of this IOR, a critical mass of development in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands is necessary for strengthening India's regional presence", the report said. The Great Nicobar Island also represents a significant economic development opportunity as the main east-west shipping route that links east Asian exports with the Indian Ocean, Suez Canal and Europe runs just to the south of this Island, it said.
"By building a container port in this location, India can participate more fully in the global shipping trade" and generate lakhs of new jobs, the report said. Other countries like Myanmar, China and Sri Lanka were gearing up to develop deep water facilities for taking a major share of trade by developing suitable harbour facilities and it is therefore imperative that India should do the same, the report contended. Great Nicobar Island is considered perfect as a site as it is equidistant from Colombo, Port Klang and Singapore and is also very close to the East-West international shipping corridor.

The strategic and economic imperative that the government has pitched for clearing the project, according to a home ministry note on March 30 to the environment ministry, mentioned that the airport proposed at Gandhi NagarShastri Nagar area would be a 'joint military-civil, dual-use airport, under the operational control of Indian Navy' and its details should not be made public due its strategic nature. Great Nicobar Island is considered perfect as a site as it is equidistant from Colombo, Port Klang and Singapore and is also very close to the East-West international shipping corridor.

However, the airport is expected to handle over 4,000 passengers in peak hour, EAC records show. A March 2021 pre-feasibility report submitted to EAC in earlier meetings cited national security and 'ongoing consolidation of the Indian Ocean region and the military and economic impact of this
consideration'.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 208294.cms

This project has immense potential to say the least , enough to rival the biggest trans shipment ports of Singapore and Colombo ., and area wise far larger than any. Tourism potential is great as well. , one can hope for a macau style entertainment hub.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

Link: https://t.co/4uP8DGKUzQ


The United States is driving its trans-Atlantic allies to ruin by globalizing a local, intra-Slavic conflict in Ukraine. And European leaders are going along, obstinately sticking with sanctions that have failed to force a rethink in Moscow, let alone “collapse” the Russian economy or trigger a palace coup against Vladimir Putin.

“Sanctions work when deployed by stronger actors against the weak,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ...
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by rsingh »

Do not take this article seriously as it is written by :"BS web team" ie Bull Shit team.. We need port for national development. Mangroves can wait. National security is more important than Mangroves and sea bed. It is a paid blah blah.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by vijayk »

^^ Jihadis/Commies/Missionaries will unite to oppose this. NGT/SC will all play hardball
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by g.sarkar »

These objections are made by paid dalals. Paid by the West and Chinese to hinder India's progress. How come they never object to any Chinese project, say in Tibet or in SCS?
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Dilbu »

India, UAE and France hold first trilateral ministerial meeting in U.S.
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India, the UAE and France have held their first trilateral ministerial meeting here on the sidelines of a U.N. General Assembly session and discussed a new and more contemporary way of doing diplomacy with a focus on “active exchange” of ideas between strategic partners and UNSC members. The three countries, while different, are strategic partners to one another and discussions focussed on areas of commonalities and on working out how to specify and concretise these commonalities going forward, official sources said.

They said the three countries are very comfortable with each other and there are many areas where potentially they could be working in a more coordinated way.

Such plurilateral meetings signify a new and more contemporary way of doing diplomacy, they said, citing the example of Quad (Australia, India, Japan, the US), I2U2 (India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the United States), trilateral between India, France and Australia as forums emerging as effective ways of finding a common agenda.

They added that typically, groupings were regional and contiguous in nature such as SAARC, BIMSTEC, ASEAN, and the EU with the exception of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).
kit
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

https://fortune.com/2022/09/22/south-ko ... urce=upday

South Korea’s next big export boom won’t be in chips or K-pop songs
South Korea is carving a niche for itself in strategic technologies, like fighter jets and space rockets.
BY RAMON PACHECO PARDO
September 22, 2022 11:00 PM EDT


South Korea is making a splash when it comes to the arms trade.

On July 27th, South Korea signed one of its biggest export contracts ever. It wasn’t for semiconductors, or ships, or Korean dramas. Instead, it focused on a little-known, yet rapidly expanding, sector of the South Korean economy: arms.

At a military base in Morag, Poland inked an agreement to buy 1,000 tanks, 600 howitzers, and nearly 50 fighter jets from Seoul, made by companies like Hyundai Rotem and Hanwha Defense. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak was clear about why his country made the purchase: Poland needed state-of-the-art defense capabilities, to be delivered as soon as possible. South Korea was the only country that could fulfill both conditions.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ricky_v »

Do not know whether it is kite flying, mighty delusions, wet dreams, or the beginnings of grumblings from the mindless husk muppets who inhabit the sm verse.
The invisible hand of markets works well for institutions too, it would fit into its utility given a free reign and without external pumping by external vested interests, the un now has reached this state not because of the weakness of its institution, but rather the strength in its flexibility; if it is to be a forum for mostly chai-biskoot sessions and only some for wider multilateral agreements, then it has been moulded into that state by the action of its member states.
To then force any institution into artificial bonds, equity agreements without any rhyme or reason except the hosannas of freedom and democracy is blinkered and downright stupid if not insidious, something that could have only been written by some over-educated pedant in the twilight of western lands.
https://www.realclearworld.com/articles ... 55072.html
The UN should therefore be replaced gradually by a new body, the Democratic Nations (DN) that is honest, effective, and committed to democracy and free-market institutions.

The Democratic Nations (DN) could be created in two different ways.

First, an international group of path-breaking individuals and private organizations, along with some national government representatives, could create a founding committee. This founding committee would invite interested parties to send delegates to a particular city to discuss how they might give birth to a new international organization.

An alternative would involve a more top-down approach in which a handful of nations would lead with minor assistance from private organizations. As with the first alternative, this group would meet, debate, and, hopefully, agree on the need to create a new organization.

In either case, this founding conference of delegates could formulate a general framework of how the DN might be organized and function. This seminal group would then call for a larger gathering at which representatives from interested democracies would draw up a constitution and approve the creation of the DN.
Inviting specific "anchor" democracies with large populations or economies or a critical regional presence such as India, Nigeria, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, Japan, Australia, the United States, Germany, and Poland would be essential. Not all of these nations operate in a fully democratic manner, but they would be important founding and legitimizing members of this new organization. These large and medium-sized countries representing specific geographic regions would signal the centrality of these regions to the new DN organization and the expectation that they would play a leading role. Since Britain and France still maintain strong cultural and economic ties with dozens of their former colonies, they should also be anchor members.
The initial organizing effort could be driven by some well-recognized private organizations and individuals, or governments, or a combination of the two. Some individuals or entities will have to step forward and provide an initial organizing impetus.
The DN might create a new group of international courts for civil and criminal matters or incorporate existing courts such as the United Nations International Court of Justice (World Court) and the International Criminal Court. Since these two bodies are subunits of the UN and do not operate in the most efficient manner, it might be desirable to set up new and equivalent bodies that would be subject to democratic oversight by the DN. In addition, to promote efficiency and speed in resolving cross-border disputes, the DN might consider creating a group of special arbitration tribunals for deciding a broad range of lesser issues.
Experts on history, government, and organizational behavior should be consulted to elicit creative and practical ideas for the organization and operational details of the new legislative, executive, and judicial bodies.
In addition to supporting democratic and free-market values, the DN must create an organization held together by strong economic bonds. Therefore, the DN would have to rewrite existing international trade agreements to focus on cooperation by the world's democracies and fledgling democracies. A new organization, the Democratic Trade and Investment Partnership, would complement the World Trade Organization and guide economic coordination among democratic nations. Existing trade blocks such as the European Union, all of whose members would likely qualify for membership in the DN, would continue to cooperate with one another under existing regulations. In all likelihood, the World Trade Organization (WTO), the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would gradually be folded into a cooperative arrangement with the DN. The point of this economic integration would be to offer existing and potential members of the DN a compelling reason to join and stay in good standing with the DN.
The Covid epidemic demonstrated the fractured nature of global drug discovery and approval. The DN might become a useful international platform for its members to collaborate on drug research, development, and approval.
The DN should welcome the cooperation of NGOs and integrate them, whenever possible, into its deliberations and activities. In the beginning, and perhaps for extended periods after that, NGOs or groups of NGOs might be deputized by the DN to handle various functions such as health care, internal security, and the development of a market economy.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Guddu »

Cyrano wrote:My fundamental problem with Bitcoin is that it's backed by nothing. So it's the interest of future buyers which keeps its value up. A giant ponzi scheme where the earliest entrants on the top of the pyramid gain a lot at the expense of late entrants who will be left holding the stick. Idem for the other virtual currencies.

Also the value is and can be volatile or highly volatile. Which invites speculative sharks who can devour common investors like me.

Why should a nation invest in ie support a digital currency it can't control instead of its own traditional currency which it can control to a large extent ?

If there are good arguments contrary to the above, I'm all ears...
It is a huge misconception, that its backed by nothing. I would suggest reading up on Proof Of Work. As an example gold is valuable, because it is scarce and secondly you have to spend energy to mine it (i.e. Proof of Work). As an example even a super power cannot print Gold out of nothing (unlike fiat currency). Similarly BTC is scarce (limited to 21 Million coins), and you have to spend electricity to mine it (Proof of Work).

Second, it is volatile because the market cap is only 400 Billion, it is volatile, as market cap increases it becomes less volatile (Think Apple stock vs a small cap).

Your 3rd question is the most interesting, as to why nations should invest in BTC, which they cannot control ?. Nations have a choice, invest in gold and/or invest in digital gold. Gold has many disadvantages, including problems with storage, transport, authenticity etc. These problems are not there with BTC. Gold by the way is not limited in supply, when prices rise, miners dig more and deeper (not environmentally friendly), BTC has a hard cap of 21 million coins, 90 % of which has already been mined, the remaining 10 % will be mined over a 100 years (i.e. no supply). BTC has value because it cannot be censored, I could walk across a border with a billion $, just by remembering 12 words, try crossing a border with even 10,000 $ of gold!. I could potentially even send a billion $ worth of BTC anywhere in the world within a few minutes, for a few $. Currencies which the govt controls by printing decline in value over time, the govt can also put a hold on your acct. By chance, I transferred a 1000$ from my US acct to the same bank in India (to myself), I am told it could take up to a week!!. Also the rate they gave me was 1$=78 Rs, when it should have been 81 Rs.
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ramana
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by ramana »

Twenty years ago Kaushal Vepa wrote why the great game is there? http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/archives/ ... ushal.html US didnt understand.
Rony
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by Rony »

How Civilizations Will Be Decided
Fewer babies will be born in all of Europe than in Nigeria alone.

More than half the increase of the global population projected by 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries, mostly in Africa, according to The Economist: Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines and Tanzania. Nigeria will have more inhabitants than Europe and the United States.

This crisis is not a projection, it is happening right now. By 2050, 60% of Italians will have no brothers, sisters, cousins, uncles or aunts. The Italian family, with the father who pours the wine and the mother who serves the pasta to a table of grandparents, grandchildren and great-grandchildren, will be gone, as extinct as dinosaurs.

Yemen, on the other hand, a failed country in the middle of a terrible civil war, will show a population increase that is double Italy's.

"In 1887 there was only one Muslim registered in Melilla, he was originally from Casablanca and worked as a servant; today Muslims exceed 40 percent of the population and are approaching the majority", reported the newspaper El Pais.... Ceuta and Melilla are what most of Europe's cities will look like in 20-30 years. Melilla is now the first Spanish city that has surpassed a 50% Muslim population due to immigration, family reunification and a high birth rate.

The Western world has provided more wealth and convenience to more citizens than any other civilization in history. We are practically inundated with resources, but we are running out of people, the only truly indispensable resource.

"Islam to become Russia's predominant religion by 2050?" — Pravda, July 21, 2008.

In addition, Islam will have overtaken Christianity as the largest religion in the world. The Islamic population of the European Union, depending on the migratory flows, could reach 75 million within a generation -- like an entire Muslim Germany or, if one prefers, like Denmark, Austria, Hungary, Greece, Belgium, Holland, Portugal and Sweden combined. Does that sound better?

"They have not managed to change us. It is we who will change them. Look at the development of the population in Europe, where the number of Muslims increases like mosquitoes. Each Western woman in the E.U. produces, on average, 1.4 children. Each Muslim woman in these same countries produces 3.5 children. By 2050, 30% of the European population will be Muslim... Our way of thinking in Islam stands in opposition to the Western way of thinking. Today it is our way of thinking that comes in and shows itself stronger than theirs...." — "Mullah Krekar", Norwegian imam, Dagbladet, March 13, 2006.

The population of Birmingham will soon be half Muslim.... [The Birmingham Mail reveals that] the number of Muslim children in the city has surpassed the number of Christian children. "In addition to Birmingham, Islam is now the dominant religion among children in Leicester, Bradford, Luton, Slough and the London boroughs of Newham, Redbridge and Tower Hamlets." — Quote from business-live.co.uk, September 21, 2014.

Do we fantasize that immigration at this rate will be able to integrate happily into host societies and that the migrants will become like us? Do we hope that before long, Europeans will return to having more children? What if we are wrong and these projections become reality? Are we resigned to the disappearance of our civilization?

"Great demographics, great power", Nicholas Eberstadt, the American political economist summed up in Foreign Affairs. Crumbling demographics, crumbling powers ...
India, next year, is expected to overtake China as the world's most populous country. India will also be 20% Muslim as well as the world's largest Islamic community. How will this demographic trend impact the fragile coexistence between Muslims and Hindus ?
The recent clashes between Muslims and Hindus in Leicester have now moved to other British cities, including Birmingham, where a Hindu temple was attacked with the cry of "Allahu Akbar" ("Allah is the greatest"). Sectarian and religious hatred "can spread all over England". The clashes between Muslims and Hindus at the birth of India and at the partition with Pakistan have now reached the multicultural enclaves of Europe.
China's population is projected to decline by 6 million per year in the mid-2040s and by 12 million per year by the end of the 2050s, the largest slump ever recorded in a country's history. China's population will halve over the next 45 years and it will become a very old country: its GDP will contract as never before and society will have to manage an aging population it never before encountered.
Japan's unprecedented aging is having a frightening impact on its military. Since 1994, the number of young people between 18 and 26 -- the age for recruitment -- has been dwindling. Between 1994 and 2015, there was a fall off of 11 million, or 40%. "Japan no longer has people to wage war," wrote Forbes. For the first time, the Japanese bought more diapers for adults than for babies. The same holds true for South Korea. "The decline in births in South Korea has become a challenge to national security," the Wall Street Journal reported in 2019.
Russia is the most obvious example: it is the largest country on earth, it is full of natural resources, yet it is dying: its population is declining disastrously. Vladimir Putin will no longer be Russia's president when his country will have lost approximately 15 million inhabitants, and a third to a half of those remaining will be Muslims.

"Is Russia afraid of disappearing?" was the question asked in the weekly Le Point by Bruno Tertrais, the scholar author of the book Le choc démographique and vice-president of the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. "Behind the conflict over Ukraine loom Russian demographic anxieties about the increase in Muslim immigration".
kit
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Post by kit »

The deft diplomacy of Jaishankar


Foreign Minister S Jaishankar has a lengthy diplomatic career; before replacing Sushma Swaraj as foreign minister, he was the Indian ambassador to the United States from 2013 to 2015. And he was India's longest-serving ambassador to China, serving from June 2009 until December 2013.
Jaishankar is noted for his deft diplomacy, tough negotiation methods, sharp remarks and strategic vision, and most importantly, he understands the complexities of complex issues. His extensive expertise as a global strategist has made him a key figure in India's foreign policy policy. Even Former senior US diplomats and international policy experts have described him as one of the world's greatest diplomats,

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