Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5209
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ShauryaT » 04 Nov 2017 22:30

Question to friends here. Do you see a new type of Russian led Warsaw pact on the horizon? If so, who will be in it and what will be its ideological foundations? To what extent will China try something similar?

JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6971
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby JE Menon » 05 Nov 2017 18:02

^^Personally I don't see Russia leading a Warsaw pact type thingie. Parsing what Russia has been doing over the past decade, I think they have read the global strategic situation correctly. They have begun using "truth" as a weapon, quite effectively. Also, they have self-circumscribed their ambitions. They no longer see the need for a global presence, I think, ideologically or physically, to secure their global interests.

China is a different ball game and of course it is trying something similar, but in the tested neo-colonial format, as in I'm your benefactor, your debtor, your supporter, your friend even, but not your equal.

KrishnaK
BRFite
Posts: 945
Joined: 29 Mar 2005 23:00

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby KrishnaK » 06 Nov 2017 07:17

The Indo-Pacific: What’s in a Name? - RORY MEDCALF

Ghost wars: China’s lengthening shadow over Asia can be countered with an India-Japan-Australia-US quadrilateral - Indrani Bagchi

China, ISIS threats get India, US together in Sri Lanka and Maldives

India's more robust presence in countries like Sri Lanka would have normally spooked the local population. But the US and Japan in the game makes it easier for these countries as well. This was alluded to by foreign secretary S. Jaishankar at a think tank last week.

The aim, said, sources here, is to transform Sri Lanka from a "consumer of net security to a contributor to net security in the Indian Ocean region." In fact, Sri Lanka is being prodded to use its influence with the Buddhist leadership in Myanmar on the Rohingya crisis


U.S. discusses Maldives turmoil with India

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5209
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ShauryaT » 07 Nov 2017 00:31

JE Menon wrote:^^Personally I don't see Russia leading a Warsaw pact type thingie. Parsing what Russia has been doing over the past decade, I think they have read the global strategic situation correctly. They have begun using "truth" as a weapon, quite effectively. Also, the have self-circumscribed their ambitions. They no longer see the need for a global presence, I think, ideologically or physically, to secure their global interests.
I agree with the view that Russia has limited their ambitions to no longer profess global interests. Underlying the global ideology they professed in the cold war, I feel there was a strong Orthodox/Slav basis to the Warsaw pact along with a colonial dimension to the erstwhile USSR. If not the full extent of the Slav identity, what can happen is a resurrection of the Orthodox identity, where Russia plays the role of the core state, just as the US plays this role for the "western" bloc. (using the word western as in the classical divide between Christianity based on Constantinipole and Rome). An example of this Russian role as the core state of the Orthodox was on display in Ukraine and Georgia, in the regions where it mattered to them even at the cost of the supposedly sacrosanct treaties of nation-states.

Alliances would be formed based on civilizational identities which are far more lasting than economic or political models of alignment and less fungible. NATO and EU have clearly stretched themselves by incorporating some Slav nations into the fold, not only Slav but Orthodox too. My read is underlying even the longest western allied Orthodox member Greece, an element of civilizational narratives is in play behind its debt-bail-tax-fiscal Grexit drama.

For many of the Slav nations, while the economic temptations of the EU are a great pull, it is difficult for many of these states to truly transition to a liberal order as championed by the western states. The fact that this liberal order itself is under threat is a separate but not totally delinked issue. Russia itself seeks economic engagement but not at the cost of military and political alliances in its tradtional zones of influence. The southern Slav nations are where if opportunities arise, I expect Russia to make its moves. Linked is a biased view but a view from the ground. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/opin ... .html?_r=0

I think where I have a difference of view is the value placed on "truth" as a weapon. In the zones of conflict, whose version of truth one is to believe and in these days of hyper, instant communications and a greater emphasis on perception than fact that rules the day. This communications power is not to be taken lightly for it has proven if you believe one version of the facts, altered the national elections in the US. Maybe you had a somewhat different reference in mind in your statement. But, in this game of balance of power between the western and eastern blocks, I see truth as the first casualty. Have been watching this slide since 10 years now, attached is a program, somewhat of a culmination of the past decade. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/putins-revenge/

The growth of China on a distinctly non-democratic political model has seriously put a dent on the "values" based propaganda of the US in the region. But China still retains the veneer of a western statist model as its political ideology and still not willing to embrace its traditional structures openly or fully. I feel China has a long way to go to play this game of power, its expanding military and political clout notwithstanding.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6971
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby JE Menon » 07 Nov 2017 01:19

>>I agree with the view that Russia has limited their ambitions to no longer profess global interests.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying that Russia will not have or profess global interests. All I'm saying is that I do not think they see a need for a global presence (physically) to do that.

About "truth", I put that in quotes myself for a simple reason. It is, for all practical purposes, relative. What Russia has been much more successful at doing in recent years, perhaps the last decade or so, is in projecting facts to its advantage, and making it's version of the truth count. One useful device in the process is a careful attention to stay away from positions and actions that may appear to the general global public as "hypocritical". The big players in the "West" have not been quite as successful at that, and that lack of success has to be viewed in combination with their constant posturing on morally higher ground. Weirdly, though, it seems like it is the media (classical and social) that purveys it more aggressively than the political elite.

JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6971
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby JE Menon » 10 Nov 2017 15:12

Very important speech by Trump in Danang, on trade.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLrttMJj7mo

If he means what he says, and I think he does, we are about to enter into a new era as far as global trade is concerned.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5209
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ShauryaT » 12 Nov 2017 06:44

A view from the elites in the US, on the world order.

panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3733
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby panduranghari » 22 Nov 2017 21:24

Which raises the question, “Who is the customer for America’s military?” Is it the U.S. citizenry? If so, then why is the customer forced under penalty of imprisonment to pay for the service it receives in the form of taxes? Fee-for-service plans can be quite profitable for cell phones, Internet and television access, garbage collection, and more, but these are all voluntary. The customer who is dissatisfied can switch to another provider or forego the service entirely. Businesses must perform to maintain market share. There is no equivalency for a military that provides a conventional or nuclear deterrent for all citizens of the state. The customer/citizen cannot opt out, and elect to forego paying taxes for that particular service.[13] If on the other hand the customer is the federal government we are faced with an even bigger paradox when employing a business management model. Profitability is not the proper measurement—breadth of coverage, a moral responsibility, is.


https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridg ... els-of-war

The customer for American military is probably India or SoKo or Japan or any nation who might find war on their doorstep.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50210
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 04 Dec 2017 23:20

We need to connect the dots on weak signals.
1) Obama visiting India and cautioning Modi to take care of Muslims. This looks like a dhamki to me.
Also looks like he is the new Clinton as he has his own foundation to replace discredited Clinton Foundation.
2) Sadik Khan the Paki origin London Mayor visiting three cities in India before going to Pakistan. What is his locus standi? Need to watch his message.
3) Sushma Swaraj stopping over in Tehran en-route to Sochi for the SCO ministers meet. This one means India values Iran relations.
4) The Yemen President Saleh being killed by Houthis. Rumor was he was negotiating with the KSA.

Mukesh.Kumar
BRFite
Posts: 763
Joined: 06 Dec 2009 14:09

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 04 Dec 2017 23:30

ramana wrote:We need to connect the dots on weak signals.
1) Obama visiting India and cautioning Modi to take care of Muslims. This looks like a dhamki to me.
Also looks like he is the new Clinton as he has his own foundation to replace discredited Clinton Foundation.
2) Sadik Khan the Paki origin London Mayor visiting three cities in India before going to Pakistan. What is his locus standi? Need to watch his message.
3) Sushma Swaraj stopping over in Tehran en-route to Sochi for the SCO ministers meet. This one means India values Iran relations.
4) The Yemen President Saleh being killed by Houthis. Rumor was he was negotiating with the KSA.


What do you think is happening Ramanaji? How do you see them connected?

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50210
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 05 Dec 2017 00:07

I don't know. That's why I am posting as collective wisdom is better than one person remarks.

The sum total was disturbing to me hence asked the questions.

One odd thing was Ombaba visit was hurriedly scheduled to HT foundation.
HT is a Congress supporter outfit.

X-post...
Cosmo_R wrote:This sent the BP up a notch:
As Obama Warns Modi, Ivanka Given Lavish Welcome in India

"Obama picked up on India’s main current social issue when he said that, along with other countries, it should ensure that a Muslim population felt integrated. “That is something that should be cherished and nurtured,” he said."

http://www.newsweek.com/obama-warns-mod ... dia-728327

Question: Did Obama say the same thing to his Indonesian hosts (he grew up in Indonesia) about nurturing and cherishing Hindus in Bali?
Or, Latinos in America? Where under his watch more deportations took place than under Bush?

Under that professorial veneer Obama harbors strong likes and a view that Muslims are persecuted everywhere

This article first appeared in
https://ridingtheelephant.wordpress.com ... ays-obama/

Where he changed the header to:

"India’s Muslims should be “cherished and nurtured” says Obama

Elliot is the BritCommie who I think wrote for WAPO. Usual 'White Mughal' stuff

https://ridingtheelephant.wordpress.com/about/



I think BO was conveying to NaMo to back off supporting Trump or else the swamp will unleash the Muslim card in India.

Its about US domestic politics as Democrats or fighting with backs to wall.

No Supporting DT means:
- No to Israel capital shift to Jerusalem
- No to intermediary to Tehran

What else?
Sadik Khan is also sent with same message I expect.

Add Pope Francis admonitions to Myanmar on the Rohinjaya Muslims.

Suddenly Christians are worried about Muslims!!!


ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50210
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 12 Dec 2017 05:34

A short 5 min top of the head from Rikhye

Decline of US: a complex problem. WW2 left US with 40%+ of global GDP. Inevitable as other former great powers (UK, USSR, Germany, France) recovered that share of GDP would fall. I think one thing no one anticipated was rise of China and now India rising. In 1700, before industrial revolution, India and China each had 25% of global GDP because production was what each person could do with their own hands, Now access to technology/capital equal for every country, In due time India/China will again have 50% of global GDP, reducing US importance still further. Also, in US, the onset of the national security state and global policeman has drained intellectual talent. The rise of the Baby Boomers, aka the "Me me me generation" has destroyed love of country and service for country and humanity. Politics has become corrupt. The idea that the state must make good any damage to your feelings has sapped vitality of the people. Baby Boomer say they have rights but not duties, its only about them. Self-gratification at the expense of the greater good has killed the family. Identify politics has killed the community. Capitalist greed has led to massive loss of jobs for ordinary people and absolute non-concern for the common man. Since he doesn't have money anymore, he cant buy stuff and generate jobs for others. Breakdown of the economy in the sense of fantastic inequality, loss of jobs, has led to explosion of drugs, further weakening America. And so on...

Please think it over.


Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20851
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Prem » 14 Dec 2017 00:02


ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50210
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 14 Dec 2017 00:18

To my list of odd things, add the 6 December 2017, New Delhi meeting of Congress leaders (Hamid Ansari, MMS and ilk and secular chatteratti (Prem Shankar Jha, Ajay Shukla etc.) with the Pak Foreign Minister and Pak HC at Mani Shankar Aiyer and its revelation by NaMo govt.

What was Pak FM in New Delhi on Babri Masjid demolition anniversary day?

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20851
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Prem » 14 Dec 2017 01:45

There may be another explanation. Massar , Massi , Mama, Taya of Pakistan know China will soon own land and water of Pak and civilians have now lost for ever. PA will act as front man for PRC to rule the Qabila. We may see exodus of rich Paki in next 3-4 years.Shifting of Textile industry to BD,Lanka or even India will be the initial sign. Kasuri is proud gasbag RAPE who has old family relation with Natwar Singh from the great great grandfathers time. No one better than him to be sent to Delhi to get deal from Delhi on behalf of RAPE. Paki Diplomat/ISI man might be their in meeting to monitor Kasuri so that he do not divulge Paki weaknesses.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50210
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 14 Dec 2017 03:27

But such a deal guaranteed by Lootyens is hardly something that NaMo will honor.
Hence the rascal Money Shankar Aiyer and his 'Unko haata do' rants.

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20851
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Prem » 14 Dec 2017 06:13

ramana wrote:But such a deal guaranteed by Lootyens is hardly something that NaMo will honor.
Hence the rascal Money Shankar Aiyer and his 'Unko haata do' rants.


Lootyen Bhoottyan cannot guarantee but will be broker only. Paki now have real fear of PRC taking over Pakland thus need to hedge using their old connections. IMHO, Kasuri may belong to last generation of Paki who may have this kind of access to elites in india.

Kashi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2911
Joined: 06 May 2011 13:53

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Kashi » 14 Dec 2017 06:51

Prem wrote: Lootyen Bhoottyan cannot guarantee but will be broker only. Paki now have real fear of PRC taking over Pakland thus need to hedge using their old connections. IMHO, Kasuri may belong to last generation of Paki who may have this kind of access to elites in india.


Are you sure about that? The likes of Mehr Tahr breezed in and out and wined and dined with the high and mighty. Im the Dim to is a regular to the party circuit.

It seems there are plenty of them with considerable access.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50210
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 15 Dec 2017 02:29

Relevant X-Posts....

Vips wrote:
chetak wrote:
was this a meeting of some components of the Indian deep state ??

no reason why so many Indian "worthies" should have attended the meeting with the pakis.

looks like at least one ex PM is still in the run for the imagined no bell.


Check this Paki fart show link where Kasuri has opened his mouth after going back:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRqQoLyAjYI

Kasuri was in Delhi for 4 days. Purported reason was to attend conference by the Aspen Foundation in India . S K lambah is the chairman of the same. This is the same guy who was holding secret negotiations with Kasuri with full support from Manmohan and Musharraf to arrive at a solution to the Kashmir Issue. The solution if everybody remembers is to make borders "irrelevant", withdraw indian forces from Kashmir except from border area etc . So it is clear that the Lootyens gang has not given up on implementing this plan. They are planning on how to continue on it and implementing it in a post Modi scenario. All the key players then are on it and had a meeting with Kasuri at Mullah Aiyars house or elsewhere during those 4 days including Manmohan Singh, PFI lover Ansari, Aiyar, all the other assorted (missing the limelight and trying to be relevant) retired bureaucrats and power peddling influence agent journalists.


SSridhar wrote:
Vips wrote:So it is clear that the Lootyens gang has not given up on implementing this plan.

Vips, I won't be surprised if it is being instigated by the US.

The context is clear. A flurry of activities after the review of the South Asia policy by the Trump administration recently. The new policy commits more troops to Afghanistan and a longer stay too. Trump is talking of a semi-permanent American presence in Afghanistan. How can these twin objectives be achieved realistically without Pakistani support, especially when the US is antagonizing Iran even further? The writing on the wall for India is clearer.

Every time, the situation became desperate for Pakistan, a new lifeline somehow materialized for Pakistan. This has happened unfailingly and the irony is it is coming from a maverick Trump who was expected by many Indian-Americans to act very differently.

Trump may still be tough with Pakistan on the Afghan-centred terrorists (that is what delinking LeT from the aid bill shows) but it will have only marginal or no effect on us. Trump wants us to engage more with Afghanistan economically & developmentally. This might invite ISI/Haqqani attacks on these projects as it has done in the past. I am sure that the Trump administration would take a 'nuanced' approach if and when they happen.

Trump is continuing with the theory that no normalcy can be established in Afghanistan unless India & Pakistan reconcile their issues. This is rubbish, to say the least but the Americans are known to have followed rubbisher and more bizarre policies. The recent Chaophraya Track-II is also as a result of the August 2017 review of South Asia policy. The Lutyens Gang meeting shows every symptom of that same virus attack.


Falijee wrote:Paki Kasuri "Breaks His Silence" ...

Khursheed Kasuri breaks the silence over the so called secret meeting with Congress top leaders in India

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan's former foreign minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri today said even the word 'Gujarat' was not mentioned by anyone at a private dinner hosted by suspended Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar in New Delhi last week, over which a huge row has erupted. Mr Kasuri has suddenly found himself at the center of a controversy after Prime Minister Narendra Modi suggested that the Congress was conspiring with Pakistani leaders to prevent the BJP from winning the election in Gujarat. Addressing an election rally in Palanpur in Gujarat this week, PM Modi claimed some Pakistani officials and former prime minister Manmohan Singh met at Mr Aiyar's house over dinner on December 6.
In an exclusive interview to Press Trust of India, Mr Kasuri said he was unnecessarily "dragged" into Indian politics, when none of Pak-India domestic issues came up for discussion at the dinner. He has the "proof", so he should be believed :D
To a question as why PM Modi alleged Pakistani interference in Gujarat polls, Mr Kasuri said: "…this is most unfortunate as India is a mature democracy. In Pakistan on the other hand, during our election campaigns, Indian is never mentioned." :roll:
Sharing the guest list at the dinner, Mr Kasuri said former PM Manmohan Singh, ex-vice president Hamid Ansari, former minister K Natwar Singh, Pakistan High Commissioner to New Delhi Sohail Mahmood, some former Indian higher commissioner to Islamabad, defence analysts and well-known journalists were also present. chai-biskoot club :mrgreen:
"Sohail Mahmood was invited since the dinner was organised for a former foreign minister of Pakistan," he said but feigned ignorance about the presence of any Pakistani former intelligence official in the meeting. "I am not aware of it (presence of Pakistani intelligence official)." Even aware, is he going to admit this . People remember his interview, which was abruptly terminated, at the Paki High Commission in Delhi, by an embassy based intelligence official , because the topic was getting controversial :mrgreen:
Mr Kasuri said that he has also links with politicians from PM Modi's BJP and was instrumental for the visit of LK Advani to Pakistan. In the bigger scheme of things, that means zero. Imran Khan has visited India many times. Does it mean anything :mrgreen:
"On my invitation, Advani visited to Katas Raj (Hindu holy place) in Pakistan. The impression given in media that I have only links with Congress men is wrong," Mr Kasuri said.He remembered Mr Aiyar as old "friend from Cambridge days" and said the presence of "dignitaries" at the dinner was due to his "involvement with the peace process." The "Track Thoo" process !
He also took credit for making progress towards resolution of all issues when he was foreign minister of the then military ruler Pervez Musharraf."When I was the Foreign Minister we made a lot of progress on all outstanding issues including Jammu and Kashmir," said Mr Kasuri, who served as Pakistan's Foreign Minister between November 2002 and November 2007.Mr Kasuri said that he has long been involved on the Track II diplomacy and expressed his desire that Pakistan and India must resolve all their disputes through bilateral negotiations. "This (peaceful resolution of disputes) is essential to fight poverty in both the countries," he said. As Modi-ji has said terrorism and talks cannot be conducted at the same time !
In his speech, PM Modi had also mentioned Sardar Arshad Rafiq, whom he identified as "Pakistan's former Army director general" for alleged interference in Gujarat polls.
Little is known about Mr Rafiq (This is a "Deep State" organ! ) except that he belongs to Palandri area of Pakistani Kashmir and served in the army. He currently lives in garrison city of Rawalpindi, according to his Facebook account.
"India should stop dragging Pakistan into its electoral debate and win victories on own strength rather than fabricated conspiracies, which are utterly baseless and irresponsible," Dr Faisal tweeted on Monday. :roll:

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50210
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 15 Dec 2017 02:32

In effect Kachori has confirmed the guest list and the agenda for the gufiya guftagu.

SS think its US initiated.

I agree as Aspen Institute is a US think tank based in Colorado, US. Looks like UPA allowed all sorts of moles to set up house in Delhi and staffed with chatteratti.

Also confirms that NaMo was right that a Paki intelligence guy was in the meeting.

It kind of hints at what info is with GOI.

Congress better confess.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17296
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby chetak » 15 Dec 2017 12:19

Prem wrote:
ramana wrote:But such a deal guaranteed by Lootyens is hardly something that NaMo will honor.
Hence the rascal Money Shankar Aiyer and his 'Unko haata do' rants.


Lootyen Bhoottyan cannot guarantee but will be broker only. Paki now have real fear of PRC taking over Pakland thus need to hedge using their old connections. IMHO, Kasuri may belong to last generation of Paki who may have this kind of access to elites in india.



IIRC some bollywood "actors" and many well known Indian malsi families have blood relationships with pakis in the PA and other high paki govt functionaries.

Such relationships will continue and will also be used by the pakis to push their own agenda

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17296
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby chetak » 15 Dec 2017 12:23

Modi has played his cards in his customary clever fashion, tactically trumping the paki aces by forcing the congis and all the pigs "named in the guest list" to come out clean in the open about their covert dealings with the pakis.

They are all being seen as anti national, given the very public anti paki position that has been taken by the Modi govt. The congis are now caught out as habitual liars, having then also lied about the chinese envoy meeting by pappu (en famille, no less!!) during the doklam crises

Strategically, this may be the death blow to this branch of the track thoo. That open border plan pushed so desperately by a swaggering, sneering mushy is loaded very very heavily against India. If implemented, the pakis would hold all the cards in cashmere with India holding zilch to protect itself.

How come burka butt was missing?? or is it simply a measure of how far and how precipitously she has fallen from grace?? :wink:

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50210
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 04 Jan 2018 23:13

Bloomberg Intelligence:

Putin's goals in Syria went beyond saving Assad

Saving Assad

A Russian general's post-mortem reveals that the conflict was used to test weapons and gain combat experience.

by
Leonid Bershidsky


The Russian Defense Ministry is denying a report by a leading Moscow newspaper that seven Russian warplanes were destroyed in a New Year's Eve attack on the Khmeimim air base in Syria. Two Russian servicemen died in the attack, according to the ministry. Clearly, fighting in Syria isn't over for Russia yet, despite President Vladimir Putin's self-congratulatory conversations with Syrian ally Bashar Al-Assad.


Recently, however, General Valery Gerasimov, head of Russia's General Staff, made public his post-mortem of the Syrian operation, revealing Russia's military priorities in Syria and its persistent conviction that every conflict in which it is involved is a proxy war against the U.S. That war won't be over even once Syrian violence subsides.


In the interview with pro-Kremlin daily Komsomolskaya Pravda, Gerasimov provides the basis for Putin's claims that Russia has defeated ISIS. These claims, of course, compete with those of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has said the victory was his, and those of former U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter who claims in a recent memoir that Russia was merely a "spoiler" of a winning strategy Carter had devised.


Though neither Russia nor the U.S. can credibly claim a full victory, the current map of Syria leans toward the Russian version: The Assad regime controls most of the country's territory, an amazing achievement after barely holding on to 10 percent of it in the summer of 2015.


Both great military powers used similar strategies, refusing to put boots on the ground in a major way and relying instead on local forces to do the fighting. "'Lasting defeat required enabling local forces to reclaim territory from ISIS and hold it rather than attempting to substitute for them," Carter wrote. "That meant focusing U.S. forces on training, equipping, enabling, and often accompanying them." It worked only partially for the U.S. -- mainly to the extent that it helped Kurdish fighters, who now control Syria's northern and northeastern areas.

Gerasimov, for his part, said Russia focused on assisting the demoralized, fatigued Syrian regime army: "We helped them, repaired their equipment right there on the ground. Today, the Syrian army is ready to defend its territory."

Both Russia and the U.S. claim they fought ISIS rather than pursued political goals. But U.S. officials have long claimed that Russian bombing raids targeted anti-Assad rebel groups rather than Islamic State terrorists. In his interview, Gerasimov counters that claim by comparing airstrike numbers:

Look, all this time the international coalition delivered eight to 10 airstrikes a day. Our aviation, with a rather insignificant force, delivered 60 to 70 airstrikes a day on militants, on infrastructure, on their bases. At times of the highest tension it was 120 to 140 strikes per day. That was the only way to break international terrorism's back in Syria. As for eight to 10 strikes a day... Well, perhaps the coalition's goals were different. The goal they mainly set for themselves was to fight Assad, not ISIS.

In reality, though, it would be fairer to say that both Russia and the U.S. pursued multiple goals in Syria. In the final stage of the conflict, it became more important for the U.S. to defeat ISIS than to displace Assad: It was a major domestic political issue because of ISIS-inspired terror attacks in Europe and in the U.S. itself. For Russia, both defending the Syrian dictator as a reliable ally and beating ISIS apparently played second fiddle to the goal of battle-testing its recently reformed and rearmed military. Gerasimov's interview reveals a hunger to put as many people and systems as possible to the test in this one conflict.


According to Gerasimov, the only previous time Russia had to deploy troops so far from its borders was to Cuba in 1962, so it was important to test that capability. The general says Russia ran 48,000 service members through the Syrian war theater. "The main thing was to test the commanders, the officers, Gerasimov told Komsomolskaya Pravda." We had all the commanders of the military districts spend quite a long time there."


That explains why Russia rotated the Syrian operation's commander so often, using five generals to run the military action between September, 2015 and the end of 2017. According to Gerasimov, the command structures of 90 percent of Russian divisions and more than half of regiments and brigades underwent battle testing. Officers were sent to Syria on a three-month rotation plan, and Gerasimov had high praise for their performance.

"This means the whole system of combat training for troops and command structures works, people are ready to perform their tasks," he said.

Russia also managed to test more than 200 types of weapons that the Russian military had recently adopted or was about to adopt. The designers of the weapons systems were sent to Syria to oversee how their products worked. Among other things, the Syrian conflict provided Russia with its greatest opportunity so far to deploy drones -- up to 60 of them a day were in the air, Gerasimov boasted.

"Today, an absolute majority of the glitches have been fixed," Gerasimov said. "That we have tested equipment and weapons under combat conditions is huge. Now, we're confident in our weapons."

Something Gerasimov doesn't say is that Russia also tested a private military company based in southern Russia, Wagner, which provided critical ground support to Assad's forces and, according to independent research, bore the brunt of the losses. The mercenaries weren't invited to the Kremlin to receive medals for Syria, but they are a mainstay of Russia's modern military strategy and a big help in deflecting the political fallout that usually comes with military casualties.

There's a second reason the testing aspect of the campaign was so important for Russia: In their minds, its soldiers are pitting themselves against the West. At the Kremlin award ceremony, Major Maxim Makolkin, a pilot who received an Order of Courage, proudly told Putin: "When we met in the air with our partners from the Western coalition, we always found ourselves, as pilots say, on their tail, and that would have meant victory in a real fight."

In the same vein, Gerasimov provides a detailed description of a minor incident involving U.S. and Russian aircraft on the agreed separation line between the two air forces. He accuses the U.S. of being unwilling to cooperate with Russia even to speed up the defeat of ISIS -- a claim directly confirmed by Carter in his memoir.


Gerasimov accuses the U.S. of maintaining bases in Syria now to "repurpose" former ISIS fighters as anti-Assad ones to "destabilize the situation." One reason Russia is maintaining a military presence in Syria despite Putin's repeated claims of withdrawal is to counter this "destabilization." Any military decisions Russia makes these days are made with an eye to a barely concealed conflict with the U.S. That's how the Kremlin and the Russian generals see the eastern Ukraine conflict, in which U.S. weaponry may soon be used, and, to a large extent, the Syrian one.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Leonid Bershidsky at lbershidsky@bloomberg




Very interesting analysis op-ed...

chanakyaa
BRFite
Posts: 1171
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 00:09
Location: Hiding in Karakoram

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby chanakyaa » 06 Jan 2018 23:46


JohnTitor
BRFite
Posts: 1336
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby JohnTitor » 08 Jan 2018 07:49

ShauryaT wrote:Question to friends here. Do you see a new type of Russian led Warsaw pact on the horizon? If so, who will be in it and what will be its ideological foundations? To what extent will China try something similar?

CSTO is such a pact and it is in force.

Not as big as Warsaw Pact though

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20851
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby Prem » 10 Jan 2018 05:17

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/ ... tual-world
India’s opportunity in a multiconceptual world
Our world is undergoing a series of transformational shifts occurring at an exponential speed. These shifts bear promise as well as peril. Galloping progress in science and the advent of cutting-edge technological developments have made our environment more intelligent and interconnected than ever. The Fourth Industrial Revolution has created a unique inflection point for the world and smart innovations have enabled us to attain unprecedented accuracy and speed in information flow.At the same time, we are facing significant global challenges, recurring as well as new, such as deepening income inequality, persistent jobless growth, escalating violence and conflicts around the world, threats to state stability, eroding public trust in federal governments, heightening geostrategic friction and, of course, environmental sustainability and climate change.In parallel, however, we are witnessing the emergence of novel national and international political and governance systems with far-reaching impact on regional and global social contracts and interactions. From a unipolar global governance system, we are moving towards a multipolar and multiconceptual social order with precarious friction points. Bending under the weight of its own complexity, our world is fractured and engulfed in tumultuous social and economic transformations. Our future and the very existence of our world rely on our capacity – individual and collective – to evolve, adapt and optimally respond to these changes and global challenges.
Amid this metamorphosis, India presents an image of optimism and promise. Its unique demographic dividend, rising tide of entrepreneurial spirit, breakthrough innovations across sectors, and remarkable pace of bold and structural reforms have boosted the macroeconomic fundamentals and enhanced India’s long-term economic outlook.Simultaneously, India is expanding its leadership in a wide range of global initiatives. Its leading role in the Paris climate agreement and International Solar Alliance, and efforts to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council and the Nuclear Suppliers Group demonstrate a quest for a more pivotal role in global geopolitics and a relentless pursuit of a renewed international identity akin to its potential as a major global player.

DavidD
BRFite
Posts: 879
Joined: 23 Jun 2010 04:08

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby DavidD » 14 Jan 2018 14:32

I'm surprised this isn't being talked about more. This is by far the biggest geopolitical/geoeconomics development of a generation.

https://tomluongo.me/2018/01/12/surging ... trodollar/

Surging Russian-Chinese Trade Pressures Petrodollar

JANUARY 12, 2018 / TOM LUONGO

The latest trade figures on Chinese/Russian trade should be further warning to the U.S. that economic sanctions do not work. In May 2017 Russian and China agreed to increase bilateral trade to $80 billion by the end of 2018.

Well, they’re a year ahead of schedule.

The official figures for 2017 came in at $84.07 billion.

They did more than $8.1 billion in business in December alone. With the opening of the new ESPO oil pipeline connecting Siberia to China doubling the amount of oil China can import to 600,000 barrels per day we’ll see those numbers continue to accelerate.

And that’s the key. Remember, the massive $400 billion gas deal China made with Gazprom in 2014 hasn’t begun delivering gas. The first Power of Siberia pipeline isn’t due to be completed until 2019. The second Power of Siberia pipeline is on the table after this one.

And the two countries just agreed to a third pipeline to bring gas in from Russia’s far east last month.

So, despite back-biting from western media about the profitability of these projects, they are going forward and the two countries continue to strengthen fundamental ties to one another.

Greasing the Skids

We are now just a week away from trading yuan-denominated oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange(INE). Trading begins January 18th.

And while that won’t change the face of oil futures overnight, it will begin shifting price discovery away from U.S. dollar markets. It will also improve external yuan liquidity as well as visibility for Russian oil on the global market.

The Shanghai contract is for Medium Sour crude which is closer to the type of oil mainly produced by Russia. Russian Urals crude is considered Medium Sour. Saudi Arabia’s and most of OPEC is sour oil (higher in sulfur with a lower pH). With the OPEC production cuts which Russia agreed to emulate, mostly hit this market.

Both WTI and Brent crude are benchmarks for Light Sweet Crude like that of the U.S. shale producers, Venezuela, Nigeria and Libya. So, this contract is designed to properly price other grades of oil not tailored to U.S. refinery needs.

And for that reason alone it will be a major competitor in the long run. The current oil market is heavily fragmented because there is no direct futures market for Sour grades of crude.

Shanghai’s contract is changing that game. Between this and that profits from it can be converted to gold via the Shanghai Gold Exchange, gives this market immediate credibility.

The effects of this have been over-stated on the one hand by hard-money advocates and under-stated on the other by entrenched financial analysts.

The important takeaway is that China has created the first unassailable and above-ground challenge to the petro-dollar oil trade. To break the world’s use of the dollar as the sole settlement currency for oil required the right contract issued by a country the U.S. can’t immediately invade and conduct a regime change operation in – like in Iraq and Libya.

Russia wins here because now there is a path for its Urals grade to become an international benchmark like WTI and Brent. And since Gazprom prefers to price its long-term gas contracts based on underlying oil prices rather than the more volatile natural gas price, this is also a win in the long run for them.

Gold convertibility is a means to deepen China’s sovereign debt markets by making it less risky to hold Chinese bonds. The lack of true yuan convertibility is the big impediment to people holding them. So, gold convertibility creates a viable exit route.

A Means to an End

Increasing trade between Russia and China has to and will go far beyond energy for its partnership to thrive. The oil trade is simply a means to building the underlying capital flow between the two countries. It makes it easier for Russian businesses to get access to Chinese capital and vice versa.

And this rapid acceleration of bilateral trade is necessary in the face of more severe U.S. economic sanctions against Russia likely coming next month. The way to avoid sanctions is to build alternate means to do business.

We will continue to target Russian banks and financial oligarchs with the idea of curtailing economic growth by cutting out their ability to source overseas capital. And again, this is why China is so important to Russia.

Because the more we push them away the more they can turn to their Chinese partners for assistance and the U.S. doesn’t dare sanction China, no matter how much President Trump bloviates about it.

China announced last week that it would not longer be accumulating U.S. treasury assets. Presumably, this mean that it will no longer recycle its trade surplus with the U.S. to halt appreciation of the Yuan versus the dollar.

It’s had to over the past year with the dollar weakening like it has. But that wave is coming to an end with a reversal of Fed policy and Trump’s tax cut bill. Rising rates in the U.S. will allow China to divest its Treasury holdings at its leisure without overly affecting the Yuan while it also deepens Yuan liquidity through its now gold-convertible bond market.

Those trade dollars will be spent in pursuit of China’s One Belt, One Road initiative and overseas where it has business. I’m sure if Russia gets into another dollar-funding crisis with new sanctions China will be there to provide dollar liquidity, just like in 2015.

Both countries understand the stakes and continue to make the right moves to support the changing macroeconomic environment. With U.S. bonds on the verge of entering a bear market conditions are ripe for China to deploy its massive savings to resume remaking the Asian continent.

panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3733
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby panduranghari » 15 Jan 2018 14:27

ramana wrote:We need to connect the dots on weak signals.
1) Obama visiting India and cautioning Modi to take care of Muslims. This looks like a dhamki to me.
Also looks like he is the new Clinton as he has his own foundation to replace discredited Clinton Foundation.
2) Sadik Khan the Paki origin London Mayor visiting three cities in India before going to Pakistan. What is his locus standi? Need to watch his message.
3) Sushma Swaraj stopping over in Tehran en-route to Sochi for the SCO ministers meet. This one means India values Iran relations.
4) The Yemen President Saleh being killed by Houthis. Rumor was he was negotiating with the KSA.


My take;

Status quo camp-
1.Obama and current US deep state
2.Chinese communist party
3.Ousted Saudi Princes under arrest
4.Muslim brotherhood
5.ISIS and assorted peaceful terrorists and their sympathisers i.e. global left.
6. European elite

Upheaval camp -
1.Russia
2.Mohammad bin Sultan and thus Saudi Arabia
3.Brexit inspired separationist movements in the west
4.GOP and assorted peaceful loving terrorists i.e. global right.
5.Israel.

It perhaps was always this way but then India did not matter. Perhaps India does at the moment or may be we are too soft.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50210
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 15 Jan 2018 21:40

Prem wrote:https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/india-opportunity-in-a-multiconceptual-world
India’s opportunity in a multiconceptual world
Our world is undergoing a series of transformational shifts occurring at an exponential speed. These shifts bear promise as well as peril. Galloping progress in science and the advent of cutting-edge technological developments have made our environment more intelligent and interconnected than ever. The Fourth Industrial Revolution has created a unique inflection point for the world and smart innovations have enabled us to attain unprecedented accuracy and speed in information flow. At the same time, we are facing significant global challenges, recurring as well as new, such as deepening income inequality, persistent jobless growth, escalating violence and conflicts around the world, threats to state stability, eroding public trust in federal governments, heightening geostrategic friction and, of course, environmental sustainability and climate change. In parallel, however, we are witnessing the emergence of novel national and international political and governance systems with far-reaching impact on regional and global social contracts and interactions. From a unipolar global governance system, we are moving towards a multipolar and multi-conceptual social order with precarious friction points. Bending under the weight of its own complexity, our world is fractured and engulfed in tumultuous social and economic transformations. Our future and the very existence of our world rely on our capacity – individual and collective – to evolve, adapt and optimally respond to these changes and global challenges.
Amid this metamorphosis, India presents an image of optimism and promise. Its unique demographic dividend, rising tide of entrepreneurial spirit, breakthrough innovations across sectors, and remarkable pace of bold and structural reforms have boosted the macroeconomic fundamentals and enhanced India’s long-term economic outlook.Simultaneously, India is expanding its leadership in a wide range of global initiatives. Its leading role in the Paris climate agreement and International Solar Alliance, and efforts to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council and the Nuclear Suppliers Group demonstrate a quest for a more pivotal role in global geopolitics and a relentless pursuit of a renewed international identity akin to its potential as a major global player.



I am sorry to say this bluntly but that stuff looks like MEA bokwas.
They will get sinecure in West like Nirupama Menon Rao.

What the heck is a multi-conceptual world looks like MEA intellectuals on hashish.

India in all those forums it is like the Eunuch(no hard power) guarding the harem (Western Interests).


ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50210
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 26 Jan 2018 00:58

I am surprised that 2018 Davos WEF summit is not being covered on the Forum.

In my humble opinion this summit is as significant as end of Cold War.

Will try to link speeches at the WEF.

chanakyaa
BRFite
Posts: 1171
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 00:09
Location: Hiding in Karakoram

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby chanakyaa » 26 Jan 2018 07:51

Following links have access to additional WEF videos.

Opening Plenary with Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India

The Power of Economic Narratives
- Raghu Rajan, Singapore's Tharman, Bob Shiller

A Shared Vision for the Arab World
- Qatar's Al Thani, Khemaies Jhinaoui od Tunisian

Strategic Outlook: Eurasia (Central Asia)

New and Old Empires

Strategic Geography: Connected Corridors
- Pakistan, CPEC, China, connectivity

Strategic Outlook: South Asia
- Purie, Dalmia, Nishtar, Singh, and Sharma

India's Role in the World
- Suresh Prabhu, Rajnish Kumar

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50210
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 27 Jan 2018 06:53

Thanks for those links.

I truly think something changed here.

disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 6449
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby disha » 27 Jan 2018 09:35

My economic outlook for the next two years (barring any sharp political moments like Pappu being elected as PM):

US Economy: Growth at 3%., +/- 0.5%
Indian Economy: Growth at 8%., +/- 1%
ASEAN economy: Growth at 6%., +/- 1%
Middle-East (midwest): Growth at 2.5%., +/- 0.5%
EU: Growth at 3%., +/- 0.5%
Japan: Growth at 2%., +/- 0.5%

I have left out Russia, UK, South America, Africa and China. China's growth is debt driven and on shaky grounds.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50210
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 27 Jan 2018 10:53

Adjust them for inflation to get real rates.

krishna_krishna
BRFite
Posts: 620
Joined: 23 Oct 2006 04:14

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby krishna_krishna » 27 Jan 2018 19:32

ramana wrote:We need to connect the dots on weak signals.
1) Obama visiting India and cautioning Modi to take care of Muslims. This looks like a dhamki to me.
Also looks like he is the new Clinton as he has his own foundation to replace discredited Clinton Foundation.
2) Sadik Khan the Paki origin London Mayor visiting three cities in India before going to Pakistan. What is his locus standi? Need to watch his message.
3) Sushma Swaraj stopping over in Tehran en-route to Sochi for the SCO ministers meet. This one means India values Iran relations.
4) The Yemen President Saleh being killed by Houthis. Rumor was he was negotiating with the KSA.


1) This is nothing new, he is send by deep state to maintain equal equal wrt porkis strategy practiced by massa, nothing more nothing less. All this in addition to cutting down the tap on NGO funding. Privately we are best buddies but in open public they use all the social vulenrabilities which would be picked up by paid media.

2) This is age old strategy by Brexit to break India via Khalistan, Kashmiris ityadi : guess where all these people get biggest shelter in the world (US, can, Brexit ), something like this (Russi jal gayee par bar nahi gaya ) :
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 668146.cms

3) This definetly means India values Iran more given our geography, that is also reason for the vote and also balancing relations with IL.

4)He is an old fellow, he had lot of dealings with Ruskies and Uae as well.

The dot I could connect is between first three, the old power reviving proven tactics to morph into new century to preserve old order at the same time trying to show bear hug when dealings with Chinese. They believe/plan empire 2.0 (west domination) to return to wha the world was after FSU demise.

SwamyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15946
Joined: 11 Apr 2007 09:22

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby SwamyG » 28 Jan 2018 05:00



ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50210
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Postby ramana » 28 Jan 2018 05:01

Thanks.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Lisa, Neela and 28 guests