Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

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Arun.prabhu
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Arun.prabhu » 25 Jan 2020 12:46

I don't know about watertight cases. From what I've heard - hearsay with all the caveats that apply - if the cops decide to prosecute you, the evidence will be there, even if it has to invented. It is very likely that French intelligence helped Ghosn. The French were happy with him and the Japanese were afraid that the French were going to 'steal Nissan' away from them, which is why they went after Ghosn.

Suraj wrote:The high conviction rate in Japan is because the police only prosecute watertight cases . They generally follow a velvet glove approach in daily life focused on harmonious society, generally very helpful and polite . Petty crime is almost nonexistent in Japan; people use their expensive bags or coats to mark their chairs when using the restroom as a matter of routine, and it’s expected that no one would steal it.

However, things are very different at high levels . The same social contract focused on preserving order and harmony, instead focuses on national interest . There are many local businessmen who’ve done way worse than Ghosn and never get prosecuted . I was in Japan during his escape . The general talk was the guy has balls and yes he’d never get justice in Japan anyway.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Suraj » 26 Jan 2020 03:01

Let’s keep to the topic of the thread . This is not the Japan society thread specifically . They don’t necessarily manufacture evidence - they constrain you from being able to defend yourself reasonably . Manufacturing things is problematic because of the paper trail involved, and Japan loves its paperwork and procedures.

Ghosn was liked at one time, because he turned around Nissans fortunes after the Renault Nissan merger . However he’s picked up enemies in the Japanese business circles and they’ve made a case that he’s to blame for something, for which he’s being made the fall guy.

The Japanese won’t push this much further because of the enormous loss of face of his escape . There was no indignation or loud demands that others hand him back, in the news locally (I saw it on NHK as it unfolded while there). The unsaid implication was that Ghosn did the smart and brave thing, and that Japan has now been forced to deal with the consequences as opposed to Ghosn himself .

In general Japanese police emphasize order and harmony first . I’ve only ever interacted with them alone once (got lost during a morning run - they were very helpful despite nonexistent English - they opened a map and showed me) but while with Japanese company, they’ve always been exceedingly polite and gracious, though I’m aware they’ve a dark side to their system . They know that too. It’s part of the way they retain order - ‘behave well, you REALLY don’t want to see what happens otherwise’.

All state vs populace systems attempt to maintain a social contract and RoE. The US system offers a lot of legal avenues if you have the time and money, but the police are over armed and trigger happy . The Japanese system deters crime by making the legal process almost impossibly unfair unless you’re very influential and a native .

But they have literally almost no petty crime , and any bag snatcher would rather the police caught them than the yakuza, because the latter are nationalists who will not tolerate Japan being badly seen by a petty criminal, who will be quietly taken to an alleyway by tattooed men in black suits, his bones broken and one or more fingers separated from him.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Arun.prabhu » 26 Jan 2020 05:28

A primer on Japanese high conviction rates and how it gets to be that high.
http://skeptikai.com/2013/09/28/the-who ... t-follows/

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ramana » 27 Jan 2020 02:32

Folks This is a rabbit hole we don't need to into. It's neither geopolitical nor geoeconomic.
Please take to Tech Forum.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ricky_v » 05 Feb 2020 05:45

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/29/greece-turkey-standoff-france-send-warships-east-mediterranean
Greece’s prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, has welcomed a decision by France to dispatch war frigates to the eastern Mediterranean as a standoff with Turkey over regional energy reserves intensifies.

With tensions between Athens and Ankara causing growing international alarm, Mitsotakis described the vessels as “guarantors of peace”.

“The only way to end differences in the eastern Mediterranean is through international justice,” he told reporters after holding talks in Paris with the French president, Emmanuel Macron. “Greece and France are pursuing a new framework of strategic defence.”

https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-greece/greece-rejects-turkeys-call-demilitarisation-aegean-islands
Turkey's Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said on Friday Greece had violated international law by arming 16 of 23 Aegean islands placed under demilitarised status.

“Whatever is being threatened is not demilitarized,” Panagiotopoulos said on Saturday. “Greece does not provoke, does not violate the sovereign rights of others, but it doesn’t like to see its own rights violated.”

The race for hydrocarbon resources around Cyprus has brought tensions between Greece and Turkey to a peak as Ankara claims areas of the sea that Athens says are in its exclusive economic zone. Dogfights and naval confrontations in the Aegean have accompanied the sparring over Mediterranean territories.

https://www.cepa.org/macrons-visit-to-warsaw
After a long hiatus, the heads of state of Poland and France will finally meet February 3-4 during French President Emmanuel Macron’s first visit to Warsaw. The two countries’ last high-level summit occurred in 2015, when President Andrzej Duda of Poland enjoyed a cordial visit to Paris with then-President François Hollande. During that meeting, both men expressed solidarity in opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The jupiterian ruler in his dexter role of foreign affairs and international team building has had a good run, while the sinister head's home building with economy and immigrants and a goal to create and sustian a moneyed base similar to the consumer ranch across the pond but in a very short time have yet to bear fruition. As denizens of libya, mali have discovered, the stability of north africa is not in the interests of the upper mediterranean, their integration with their resources into the eu will come later .A nascent third pole, if you will of the hre 2.0, india, sa, brazil and perhaps nigeria, ghana, indonesia soon enough to offset team democracy and democratic team of peoples republic to keep rationality alive. Though bodily intervention is unlikely, the alliance can hold forth with words, presentations and debates in international gatherings, seems to be the only way the world is headed after all.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ricky_v » 05 Feb 2020 14:26

This thread is not suited for this post,but as the dance of democracy has not rekindled to the other side of the red sea to warrant a seperate mena thread, here would suffice.
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/02/algeria-role-libya-peace-process-region.html
By almost any measure, Algeria’s efforts to secure a political inter-Libyan deal free from foreign interference have not been a success. On Jan. 29, French President Emmanuel Macron angrily accused Turkey of deploying its allied militias from Syria, along with warships, to the region in support of the embattled UN-backed government in Tripoli, without mentioning a larger deployment of arms that had been made to eastern Libya by other nations. Ankara maintains that its warships are present to support NATO operations within the Mediterranean and are anchored within international waters. Qatar and Italy are also supporting the government in Tripoli, though to a lesser degree.

In the east, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Sudanese and Chadian fighters and Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group are all backing the anti-government so-called Libyan National Army, with limited support alleged to be coming from France.

The embargo on international arms supplies to Libya’s warring parties, which was reasserted in Berlin in mid-January, is unraveling, and the strength of the international proxy forces continues to grow.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Rony » 11 Feb 2020 09:07

Sinn Fein emerges as the single largest party in Irish elections for the first time

Ireland’s Nationalist Party Breaks Through

Irish voters handed an unprecedented victory to Sinn Féin, a left-wing nationalist party that is perhaps best known for being the political arm of the Irish Republican Army during the decades of sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland known as the Troubles. Though the seismic shift has largely been attributed more to voter dissatisfaction with mainstream parties than to Sinn Féin’s support for the unification of the Republic of Ireland with Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, it nonetheless comes at a nationalist moment in the country—one in which anti-English sentiment, brought on by Brexit, has grown.

While Brexit has enhanced Ireland’s power and prestige on the world stage, it has also contributed to a revival of historic tensions between Ireland and Britain, which have manifested in an uptick in anti-English sentiment. “There does seem to be a reawakening of an anti-British nationalism as a result of Brexit,” O’Malley said, noting that such sentiment was indicative of the era before the Good Friday Agreement, the pact between Britain and Ireland that marked the end of the Troubles. Since then, relations have largely warmed—so much so that Queen Elizabeth II made a historic visit to the republic in 2011. Brexit appears to have undone much of that progress, though, and subsequent efforts at promoting reconciliation between Ireland and Britain—including Varadkar’s attempt last month to commemorate a police force active in Ireland during the era of British rule—have been particularly unpopular.

It’s not just Ireland that has seen an increase in nationalist sentiment. Brexit has proved to be a boon for nationalist movements across the U.K., including those in Scotland (where polls now show a surge in support for Scottish independence), Northern Ireland (where Irish nationalists make up the majority of lawmakers), and Wales (which has seen an uptick in its otherwise dormant secessionist movement). Even beyond the U.K., Brexit has inspired other nationalist parties to refine their positions. Euroskeptic parties in Germany, France, and Italy have mostly abandoned previous plans to follow Britain out of the EU, plotting instead to dismantle the bloc from within.

Though Ireland’s ruling parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil had previously ruled out forming a coalition with Sinn Féin, the results of the latest election mean they may no longer have a choice. But regardless of whether Sinn Féin enters the Irish government or not, it’s unlikely that its nationalist aims will be realized anytime soon. Though support for reunification in Ireland is high, O’Malley said that people “are not sure about exactly what circumstances they would be willing to accept and vote for it,” especially if it means higher taxes. Should Irish-British relations continue to sour during the next phase of Brexit negotiations, the prospects of reunification could get dimmer still. “If Britain moves away from Ireland, it makes it more difficult for north-south reconciliation,” Cunningham said. “It pulls those communities apart further.”

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Prem » 15 Feb 2020 01:20


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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby banrjeer » 15 Feb 2020 05:35

This is from quora regarding Qatar, Arab states and Turkey. please ignore the faulty English. it show a progression that you cannot get from news media and also the many twists and realignments that are talking place constantly.

Qatar established in 1972 , it was under Occupation of England ,
Saudi Arabia is the Only Arab Countries wasn’t under Any Occupation from Any Europe Country like England , France , it was established in SEP-1932 .

Other Countries in G.C.C Actually get independent from England between 1960 - 1973 A.D

Saudi Arabia has A chance to make a control on these small Countries , and the Central Decisions of Essential Issues by Saudi Arabia .

Qatar didn’t like this kind of control , She want to make her independent Rule without any Interface from Any Other Country in the World .

There isn’t Any Country hasn’t Any Independency 100% in the World ,
Even All Europe hasn’t this one after WW2 .

1972 - 1995 : The 1st Ruler of Qatar has Friendship with Saudi Arabia , Actually they haven’t in that time Any Essential Income for the country .

1995 : Qatar Discovered some Gas Fields in her country , She decide to make her Special Indecency in her Rule , The Son of the 1st Ruler make a Coup against of his Father and start to make a new Policy in Qatar .

1995 - 2013 : The 2nd Ruler of Qatar and his Cousin The Foreign Minister , Start to build his country and make his new Policy .

1996 : They Thought have to make Necessary Media which protect them Rule in Qatar . it was Al-Jazeera Channel The Team who start work in this Channel was Working in BBC Arabic Channel in London in 1995 . This Channel was opened for One Year Only .
Al-Jazeera Channel has her Special Strategy , she has her High Quality in presenting her News with High Quality of analyzing and Other Documents Programs To make her Freedom Space she select the line of Opposing and only The Opposition one in the Arabic World was The Islamic Party Brotherhood . With her Branch in Syria , Egypt , Turkey.
Actually this Opposition was increasing because of the Dictator Regimes in the Arabic World , If people lost every thing and they became Weakness They will go to the Religion Side to strength themselves as them Thoughts .
Actually Arab People had Found this Channel as the Only One who Understand them Thoughts and Emotions in Religion and Policy with them Lost Rights .

2001 - 2002 : AKP in Turkey win the Election and start rule the country , Turkey was very poor , because of the Currency Fall Crisis . Qatar decided to support the Economic of Turkey ,

She Found Turkey as a Good Allies in her Policies against of the Saudi Arabia Control . especially has same view on The Party “ Muslim Brotherhood “ .

In same Time Qatar make Other Kind Of Relationship with Israel : Foreign Prime Minister [ Cousin of the 2nd Ruler ] had Visited Israel Many Times.
as THE 1ST Responsible from G.C.C Countries .

Qatar Only the Country in the World who has Office for the Qaeda , The Famous Terrorist Organization

2003 : Saudi Arabia had Decided to establish an Arabic Channel can compete Al-Jazeera Channel . It’s Name is : “ Al-Arabiya “

Qatar had Replayed to Saudi Arabia by Making Other Channels like :
Online Al-Jazeera Channel , Documentary Al-Jazeera , English Al-Jazeera .
Sport Al-Jazeera “ They had get the Exclusive of World Cup Football Matches “ So Any One in Arab World must pay money to watch Matches .

Turkey has her Relationship with Qatar the Country who Support him all the time , by media , and Economic .
Al-Jazeera Channel Started issuing news and Advertising about the Turkish President “ Recep Tayip Erdogan “ As a Replaced Leader of Arab World Rulers as An Islamic and Democracy One .

Arab People knows before about Turkey in her Dealing with Women who wear The Islamic Dress and Head Cover “ Hijab “ Arabs saw The Turkish Prime Ministry as A powerful man because he Allowed Women to wear it in Universities , Schools , Streets .

AL-Jazeera 1st Channel in the Arab World who put Advertising to visit Turkey for Tourism .

2006–2011 :

Bashar- AL-Assad Killed the Prime Minister of Lebanon “ Rafiq AL-Hariri “ by Instruments from Iran and Her militant in Lebanon “ Hizbullah “

Mr.Rafiq AL-Hariri was the Allies of Saudi Arabia in Lebanon . The Crimes made Saudi Arabia very angry of Assad Regime , King Abdullah was saying that Bashar is a boy not a man . Bashar Replayed that Saudi Government is Half of men .

Bashar Al-Assad was felled in a big Problem can fall his regime because of this criminal
Nobody stands with him the World . and International Court start investigating with Generals in Syrian Army who has relation in this Terrorist Criminal .

Saudi Arabia made A Political War against the Boy who being under International isolation The Western Countries start cutting them Relationships with Bashar .
Only Qatar & Turkey start stand with , but not because of Saudi Arabia .
There is Other Reason “ Gas Pipes “

Qatar Wants from Bashar AL-Assad to spread her Gas Pipes in Syria to reach Europe by Cheap Price , Cheaper than Other costs of Transportation .

Qatar is 2nd Country in the World who Has Gas reserve after Russia , Europe want to Buy Gas from Qatar .
Turkey can take Advantage by this as A logistic Country all Pipes of gas , Petrol come to her Lands , also the Transit Lines of International Trips in Istanbul .

Turkey & Qatar Started Make Allies with Bashar-Al Assad to raise the International Isolation on his Rule , In 2008 .
After making this Help to him , They Offered to him for approving the Project of Qatari Gas , Bashar AL Assad Didn’t Accept because Russia who Support him also didn’t Accept . Russia in same time Remove his debts .

2011–2014 :

Arab Spring is came , it’s reached to Syria , Al-Jazeera was publishing all the news of Syrian Revolution , Qatar stands with Syrian Opposions against of Assad Regime .
Turkey in 1st 6 Months of Revolution was sending Advices to Assad Regime to stop Protests by making Arrangement to improve the Economics of The Country . Bashar AL-Assad Rejected all Offers from Turkey , Saudi Arabia , Other Countries in the World ,
He want to be a Hero Like his Father in FEB-1982 when he has killed 50,000 Civils.

So All Arab Countries starts Supporting This Revolution exactly from Qatar & Turkey .

Saudi Arabia Got Angriness of this Two Countries and got afraid in addition of Israel Also for “ Muslim Brotherhood “ because they are the Only Replacement of Assad Regime in Syria .e

So Every Thing have changed against of Revolution , Qatar , Turkey .
2nd Ruler of Qatar gave the Rule to his Son Tamim ,
Ex-Prime minister of Qatar leaved to live in London .

The File of Syrian Revolution had transferred to Saudi Arabia , The Case of Syrian Revolution start going dawn .

2017 - 2019 : The Crisis between Saudi Arabistan and Qatar was getting Bigger . After finish the Visit of Trump President of U.S.A to Riyadh , G.C.C had Decided to cut Relationships with Qatar , They Banned importing any goods to Qatar and Qataris for coming to Saudi Arabia for Haj by Qatari Airlines , They had also banned the Air Roads of plan above of G.C.C Countries ,
Qatar Found Iran Better than Her Sisters in helping her by Logistic and Also Turkey sends Troops to Qatar in case if war happened .
Turkey has Military Base in Qatar .


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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Philip » 24 Feb 2020 21:02

Mahathir resigns after Anwar accuses him of betrayal on the power sharing deal.Malaysia in crisis. Good news for India if Anwar replaces him.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Vips » 25 Feb 2020 06:14

Like a typical and true peacefool he wants it all and has gone back on the power sharing agreement with Anwar. He has resigned with a game plan of getting another coalition minus Anwar and is even thinking of fighting an early/mid term election to come back with a bigger majority.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Suraj » 26 Feb 2020 23:35

This is a somewhat flippant sport related matter, but still of significant relevance.

Background: In 2022, the Commonwealth Games will be in Birmingham, England. India has been a significant CWG sporting power this century, with the 3rd most gold medals behind Australia and England, ahead of Canada, NZ and others. We were 2nd in the medals table in 2010 and 3rd in 2018. Our strongest sports are shooting, weightlifting and wrestling, all of which we top the medals table in usually. But before 2000s, we were useless at CWG. Sometimes we didn't attend, and when we did, we were typically poor. That changed this century.

Situation: the English organizers decided to drop shooting and archery from CWG2022, because 'they have no facilities nearby' (mostly a lie), 'bureaucracy related to importing sports weapons' (somewhat true, but their problem) and they don't care (mostly true, not their main medal sports).

Consequence: The International Sport Shooting Federation and World Archery protested. Malaysia, Singapore, Bdesh also protested. India went further and said it would withdraw from CWG. Cue brown pants among organizers. Many discussions follow, with with multiple face saving 'the removal is final' assertions.

Final result: CGF agreed that the shooting and archery events will be held in India in Jan 2022, 5 months before rest of the events in Birmingham. This is unprecedented in Cwealth and general sporting history. The British press are livid, and MPs want to know why this 'disgraceful agreement' was made. But well, it's the official plan now.

Here's why it's important: we mostly don't care about the Cwealth. Most people either shrug or advocate leaving. India hasn't even sent a head of govt to CHOGM in many years, until they bent over backward to get Modi to briefly attend the last one. It's easy to just walk away. Anyone can. But it's much harder to armtwist another country into redoing the sporting event they hold dear to their history, on terms that suit us. Arguably no one else can do this - not even Australia, who may be great at sports but have no power to convince London to do their bidding.


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