Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

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gauravsh
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby gauravsh » 18 Jun 2020 23:56


Europe needs money as of now and they ain't getting from Trump. So their only bet is China. I doubt even if the so called 5G alliance that UK wants, will lead upto anything. If they need alternatives to Huawei or ZTE they already have in form of Nokia and Ericsson. Why don't back them up ?

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby chanakyaa » 25 Jun 2020 07:01

Just when you thought the modern financial system was approaching a slow death, some economist (i.e. someone who does not produce anything other than hot air) comes with a clever idea of extending the life of sick patient. Weimer Republic did this exactly 100 year ago. Now governments around the world will print whenever and whatever magnitude as they like (pick a currency 1 Trillion, 10 Trillion, why not 100 Trillion). No need to borrow. Slowly the battle field is shifting from interest rate/debt to foreign currency.

How to create money without borrowing it....And, if you don't borrow, you never have to pay for it...that's clever
...message from Stephanie Kelton, a member of the Democratic Party's economic task force whose new book, The Deficit Myth, argues that money spent by Congress does not need to be "paid for" with taxes or borrowing.
...
We would have a much harder time falling into panic mode if the CBO wasn't producing that graph that shows the debt-to-GDP ratio increasing very sharply because of the deficits. You just have a commitment to provide fiscal support to the economy without the national debt rising.


MMT: NOT MODERN, NOT MONETARY, NOT A THEORY
Modern monetary theory (MMT) has a new champion, and a new bible. Stephanie Kelton, economics professor at SUNY Stony Brook, is the author of The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People's Economy...

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ricky_v » 25 Jun 2020 08:37

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/06/23/putins_new_nuclear_doctrine_115405.html
In June 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an edict on “On the foundations of state policy in the field of nuclear deterrence.”[1] This is a first because the previous versions of this document were classified[2] and previous unclassified Russian written doctrinal pronouncements on nuclear weapons use at the Presidential level were part of longer documents on military doctrine.

Moreover, Putin is making unprecedented (for a doctrinal document) nuclear first use threats while simultaneously denying Russia’s policy provides for such a course of action.

Paragraph 4 of Putin’s 2020 decree states, “The state nuclear deterrence policy is of a defensive nature and is directed at supporting the capabilities of nuclear forces at a level sufficient to ensure nuclear deterrence and to guarantee the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state and to deter a potential adversary from aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies in the event of the emergence of armed conflict by preventing the escalation of military activities and ending them on conditions acceptable to the Russian Federation and (or) its allies.

Putin’s decree contains four announced conditions for nuclear weapons use, all of which involve first use of a nuclear weapon. It states:

The conditions which determine the possibility for the use by the Russian Federation of nuclear weapons are:
a) the receiving of creditable information concerning the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territories of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies;
b) the use by an enemy of a nuclear weapon or other types of weapons of mass destruction against the territories of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies;
c) enemy actions against critically important state or military facilities of the Russian Federation, the disablement of which will lead to a disruption of retaliatory operations of the nuclear forces;
d) aggression against the Russian Federation involving the use of conventional weaponry, which threatens the existence of the state itself.

Third, the use of “nuclear forces” rather than “strategic nuclear forces” in the provision related to non-nuclear attacks on nuclear and command and control facilities (paragraph 19 [C]) opens up the possibility of a nuclear response to a non-nuclear attack on a vast number of Russian military facilities, airbases, naval ships and Army bases and units. This is because dual capability (conventional and nuclear capability) is almost universal in Russia.[25] The Russians are trying to effectively use the threat of nuclear escalation to negate our conventional and cyber capabilities. If they impose this targeting constraint upon us, we lose the war.

Alexei Arbatov and fellow Duma Deputy Petr Romashkin suggested that under Putin’s nuclear doctrine, Russian first use of nuclear weapons would be appropriate in response to contingencies like NATO’s past military action in Kosovo.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ricky_v » 25 Jun 2020 09:12

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/06/03/sp060320-remarks-to-world-economic-forum-the-great-reset
Remarks to World Economic Forum
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF
So, what would it take for historians to look back at this crisis as the moment of a Great Reset?

From the perspective of the IMF, we have seen a massive injection of fiscal stimulus to help countries deal with this crisis, and to shift gears for growth to return. It is of paramount importance that this growth should lead to a greener, smarter, fairer world in the future.

Governments can put in place public investments—and incentives for private investments—that support low-carbon and climate-resilient growth.
I am particularly keen to take advantage of the low oil prices we see today, to eliminate harmful subsidies and introduce a carbon price that would work as an incentive for future investments.

Second, let me talk about smarter growth. We know the digital economy is the big winner of this crisis. But we must not allow the digital divide to widen so that some countries and communities fall further behind. This would bring more pain than gain in the future.

So, it is critical that institutions like the IMF support investments that will shrink the digital divide—working in partnership with the World Bank and others.

We also need to think carefully about how to make sure the jump in growth and profitability in the digital sector leads to benefits that are shared across our societies.

We know that—if left to its own devices—this pandemic is going to deepen inequality. That has happened in prior pandemics.

We can avoid this if we concentrate on investing in people—in the social fabric of our societies, in access to opportunities, in education for all, and in the expansion of social programs so we take care of the most vulnerable people. Then we can have a world that is better for everyone.

https://www.weforum.org/great-reset
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/now-is-the-time-for-a-great-reset/
Klaus Schwab
Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum
Every country, from the United States to China, must participate, and every industry, from oil and gas to tech, must be transformed. In short, we need a “Great Reset” of capitalism.

The Great Reset agenda would have three main components. The first would steer the market toward fairer outcomes. To this end, governments should improve coordination (for example, in tax, regulatory, and fiscal policy), upgrade trade arrangements, and create the conditions for a “stakeholder economy.”

This means, for example, building “green” urban infrastructure and creating incentives for industries to improve their track record on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) metrics.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ricky_v » 30 Jun 2020 21:40

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/06/29/us-could-buy-turkeys-russia-made-s-400-under-senate-proposal/
The U.S. would be able to buy Turkey’s Russian-made S-400 air defense system under legislation proposed in the Senate last week. The proposal is one powerful lawmaker’s attempt to alleviate the impasse between Washington and Ankara over the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

Senate Majority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., has proposed an amendment to the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act that would allow the purchase to be made using the U.S. Army’s missile procurement account.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ricky_v » 02 Jul 2020 08:08

https://www.rt.com/russia/493482-russia-vote-constitution-preliminary-results/
Exit polls after the Russian constitutional vote show 71 percent of the country supported the proposed amendments while just over 28 percent were opposed. The changes are major updates to Russia's most important legal document.

In theory, it would allow President Vladimir Putin to run for office two more times, potentially staying in power until 2036.

Other changes include the regular indexation of pensions for inflation and a guaranteed minimum wage above subsistence level; the definition of marriage as a union between one man and one woman; a ban on top government officials from holding foreign passports; and restricting future presidents to serving only two terms. There was some controversy about the new constitution also including a mention of God, in regards to the country’s heritage.

The newly-amended constitution also marks a slight shift away from the hyper-presidential system, introduced by former President Boris Yeltsin in 1993. By redistributing some powers to other government organs, both Russia's lower and upper houses of parliament now have the opportunity to propose and approve of certain officials.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ricky_v » 01 Aug 2020 06:05

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521#:~:text=The%20world%20is%20ill%2Dprepared,the%20end%20of%20the%20century.
Image
Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.

And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

As a result, the researchers expect the number of people on the planet to peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, before falling down to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.

Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century.

Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe.

They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve.

China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years' time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place.

The UK is predicted to peak at 75 million in 2063, and fall to 71 million by 2100.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 02 Aug 2020 12:53

An interesting article on how the Internet is being carved up into different beings and what Jio means for the future of the internet.

India, Jio, and the Four Internets

Image

The authors thesis is that you cannot ignore geopolitics/ geoeconomics in the future of the internet. Already the world is split into at least four different zones of influence. This play around Jio is finalizing this and going to affect the future of telecom and IT industry.

One of the more pernicious mistruths surrounding the debate about TikTok is that this will potentially lead to the splintering of the Internet; this completely erases the history of China’s Great Firewall, started 23 years ago, which effectively cut China off from most Western services. That the U.S. may finally respond in kind is a reflection of reality, not the creation of a new one.

What is new is the increased splintering in the non-China Internet: the U.S. model is still the default for most of the world, but the European Union and India are increasingly pursuing their own paths.


The Indian Counterweight
It is increasingly impossible — or at least irresponsible — to evaluate the tech industry, in particular the largest players, without considering the geopolitical concerns at stake. With that in mind, I welcome Jio’s ambition. Not only is it unreasonable and disrespectful for the U.S. to expect India to be some sort of vassal state technologically speaking, it is actually a good thing to not only have a counterweight to China geographically, but also a counterweight amongst developing countries specifically. Jio is considering problem-spaces that U.S. tech companies are all too often ignorant of, which matters not simply for India but also for much of the rest of the world.

Still, Facebook, Google, Intel, Qualcomm, et al should proceed with their eyes wide-open: they are very much a means to an end for a company and a country that is on its own path. That is not to say these investments are not a good idea — I think they are — but India’s path is perhaps a more populist and nationalistic one than many Americans would prefer. Still, it is less antagonistic to Western liberalism than the Chinese Communist Party, and again, an important counterweight.

The only question left, then, is whither Europe, and frankly, the picture is not pretty:

The Four Internets

What differs Europe’s Internet from the U.S., Chinese, or Indian visions is, well, the lack of vision. Doing nothing more than continually saying “no” leads to a pale imitation of the status quo, where money matters more than innovation.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby m_saini » 04 Aug 2020 11:18

This is going to be one of the major challenges for India in the coming future.

Up to a Third of Bangladesh Is Underwater

Bangladesh has been especially hard it: The floods have left between 24% and 37% of the country underwater, the New York Times reports. The consequences have been horrific, with 4.7 million people across the country displaced, 984,819 houses inundated, and 129 people killed, according to government data.

Without urgent action to draw down carbon emissions and curb the climate crisis, more severe monsoon seasons are surely on the horizon. Along the Bangladeshi portion of the Brahmaputra River, for instance, water has stayed at a dangerously high level for over 30 consecutive days, which is the longest streak of this kind in the region in more than 20 years. And if global temperatures rise to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, one study from climate experts at the Bangladesh University of Engineering found, then flooding along the river will get even worse, with floods that currently only occur once a century occurring 24 times per century.



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