Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 12 Jul 2015 15:30

EU does not trust Greece on any agreement.....

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/07/12 ... -eurozone/

.....they want a fund established by Greece to be administered by Belgium.

if the EU is playing brinkmanship they are playing a very tough game. However, I think they are serious and want Greece out.

I think they are PO'd by Greece's horsesh*t election where the government officials urged a "no" vote.

They were deeply angered and insulted. Their refusal to negotiate any further with the Greek FM is an indicator in that.

Now, nobody trusts *any* Greek agreement. period.

The moral of the story is that you use words like "terrorist" to sway opinion about the people you are trying to negotiate with but when you do, you are really indicating you are not serious in wanting to get a deal. the other side won't believe you no matter what you say. Words count and mean something. be prepared for eternal opposition.

OTOH this could be nothing more than another negotiating ploy. but all in all, Greece may be out.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 12 Jul 2015 15:40

I also predict that if Greece goes running to the Rodina, the US will respond in ways that nobody will like.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Jul 2015 15:48

Per TSJ's Foxnews source, these are the numbers to beat:

1. Greece has received bailouts totaling 240 billion euros in return for deep spending cuts, tax increases and reforms from successive governments. Though the country's annual budget deficit has come down dramatically, Greece's debt burden has increased as the economy has shrunk by a quarter.
2. The Greek government has made some form of debt relief a priority and will hope that a comprehensive solution will involve European creditors at least agreeing to delayed repayments or lower interest rates. (This is the real issue, IMO)
3. Tsipras has made much of the need for a restructuring of Greek debt, which stands at around 320 billion euros, or a staggering 180 percent or so of the country's annual GDP.

E-Z solution: Become the Frontlyin' Al-Lie in the Reconstruction of Turkey. Debt disappears magically like Pakistan's did. All they have to do is survive until January 2017 when Dubya III or Emperor Cruz comes to power.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Jul 2015 15:52

What if Greece exits, and the Oiro falls to 2 per dollar? Oh well, Greece will still owe 170 billion Euros. But now that's only 85 B USD, which is about what the US Mint prints every month. So they just need to call their Currency the Greek Dollar and declare a Quantitative Easing.

From Wikipedia (read last sentence)

Greece is a democratic and developed country with an advanced high-income economy, a high quality of life and a very high standard of living. A founding member of the United Nations, Greece was the tenth member to join the European Communities (precursor to the European Union) and has been part of the Eurozone since 2001. It is also a member of numerous other international institutions, including the Council of Europe, NATO,[a] OECD, OSCE and the WTO. Greece, which is one of the world's largest shipping powers, has the largest economy in the Balkans, where it is an important regional investor.

And...

By the end of 2009, as a result of a combination of international and local factors the Greek economy faced its most-severe crisis since the restoration of democracy in 1974 as the Greek government revised its deficit from an estimated 6% to 12.7% of gross domestic product (GDP).[137][138] In early 2010, it was revealed that through the assistance of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and numerous other banks, financial products were developed which enabled the governments of Greece, Italy and many other European countries to hide their borrowing.[139][140] Dozens of similar agreements were concluded across Europe whereby banks supplied cash in advance in exchange for future payments by the governments involved; in turn, the liabilities of the involved countries were "kept off the books".[140][141][142][143][144][145]

According to Der Spiegel credits given to European governments were disguised as "swaps" and consequently did not get registered as debt. As Eurostat at the time ignored statistics involving financial derivatives, a German derivatives dealer had commented to Der Spiegel that "The Maastricht rules can be circumvented quite legally through swaps," and "In previous years, Italy used a similar trick to mask its true debt with the help of a different US bank."[145] These conditions had enabled Greek as well as many other European governments to spend beyond their means, while meeting the deficit targets of the European Union.[140][146]

In May 2010, the Greek government deficit was again revised and estimated to be 13.6%[147] which was the second highest in the world relative to GDP with Iceland in first place at 15.7% and the United Kingdom third with 12.6%.[148] Public debt was forecast, according to some estimates, to hit 120% of GDP during 2010.[149]

As a consequence, there was a crisis in international confidence in Greece's ability to repay its sovereign debt. To avert such a default, in May 2010 the other Eurozone countries, and the IMF, agreed to a rescue package which involved giving Greece an immediate €45 billion in loans, with more funds to follow, totaling €110 billion.[150][151] To secure the funding, Greece was required to adopt harsh austerity measures to bring its deficit under control.[152]

On 15 November 2010, the EU's statistics body Eurostat revised the public finance and debt figure for Greece following an excessive deficit procedure methodological mission in Athens, and put Greece's 2009 government deficit at 15.4% of GDP and public debt at 126.8% of GDP.

In 2011, a second bail-out amounting to €130 billion ($173 billion) was agreed in 2012, subject to strict conditions, including financial reforms and further austerity measures.[154] As part of the deal, there was to be a 53% reduction in the Greek debt burden to private creditors and any profits made by Eurozone central banks on their holdings of Greek debt are to be repatriated back to Greece.[154] A team of monitors will be based in Athens to ensure agreed reforms are put into place and three months worth of debt repayments are to be held in a special account.[154]
Greece achieved a primary government budget surplus in 2013. In April 2014, Greece returned to the global bond market as it successfully sold €3 billion worth of five-year government bonds at a yield of 4.95%.
Greece returned to growth after six years of economic decline in the second quarter of 2014,[155] and was the Eurozone's fastest-growing economy in the third quarter.[156]

Aha! I knew it! It's Benis envy from the Germans.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 12 Jul 2015 19:46

UlanBatori wrote:Per TSJ's Foxnews source, these are the numbers to beat:
E-Z solution: Become the Frontlyin' Al-Lie in the Reconstruction of Turkey. Debt disappears magically like Pakistan's did. All they have to do is survive until January 2017 when Dubya III or Emperor Cruz comes to power.

Is DubyaIII Jeb? Is Cruz ted Cruz? So are you predicting a republican candidate victory as opposed to a Democratic one?

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 12 Jul 2015 19:50

^ and UB, reg your notes on Greece, lets remember that even Germans aren't clean on the 2% debt / GDP limit. Even those fellas have debts off the book and its more like 3.5-3.7% and not the 2% as recommended by the Maastricht treaty.

As a lot speculate, its quite true that not all is well in France and its imploding debt and growth wise... and Greece will look like a irritating locust when it comes to the time when France [or Italy or Spain] get into trouble... and in the land of the sick room, it just a qn of who is next. Not if...

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 12 Jul 2015 21:29

Changing currency is much more disruptive and potentially leads to civil war but that is a natural result of abandoning Euro/IMF debt completely. You cannot expect creditors to allow you to make a smooth transition when you are doing

to their debt. Without smooth transition, Greeks themselves will treat drachmas (new and improved) as worse than tissue paper.

Tsipras's continuation has become untenable (Varoufakis's exit does not undo all the damage when Tsipras's is the one who approved things) but, perhaps, only continuing to keep the context/continuity going from EU perspective. His days are numbered (very short term). How will he face people if he accepts same terms or worse after referendum (his idea)?

There must be a power outside of US and Euro(pe) to rescue Greece. That power will only rescue if Greece starts with clean slate and/or gives better assurance (and collateral) than it gives Europe in order to rescue it.

What will be that collateral? and why wouldn't Europe accepts that collateral in the first place? That is the dilemma. It depends on appetite of Greece' leaders to lead the revolution and at present they all look MMS style pigmies to me.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Jul 2015 21:55

Unless they break out of EU they cannot go to other sources, can they? I mean, China won't give them money if it goes straight to Berlin. So for the rest of the world, GREXIT is prerequisite for GRINVEST, isn't it?
Aren't Tspipras & Co betting on this calculation too? They SAY they have agreed to everything the EU demands, so that the whole world pities the poor beleagured Greeks, but they know very well that just SAYING it is not going to allow anyone to place faith in their words. The Referendum shows very very clearly that the Greek voters (and hence the Greek parliament) are not going to abide by the terms. What EU official is willing to look even more idiotic by giving even more money to Greece under these conditions? So Greece has got the EU into a corner.
MasterClass deadbeats.

Put Pakis to shame.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 12 Jul 2015 22:14

Greece is unambiguously in a weaker position. It is one vs many (stronger at that), dependent economy vs independent (by and large), debtor vs creditor relation.
Neither Greece nor China made any statement regarding this possibility. Putin is the only one that spoke on this and his target is Europe as revenge for their doing in Ukraine.

Most importantly, it is not about China (or some multilateral entity) rescuing one time but what is the hope Greece provides that it won't get into same dodo. EU cartel will make the cost of Greece exports prohibitive and it cannot sustain itself not being part of its neighborhood gang.
So, it is not like adopting <2 year baby or just gifting some money eliminate debt (one time event) but a 40 year old unemployed, diseased person of ill-repute.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Jul 2015 22:22

Sorry, I don't agree. Think long-term. 5 years from now the Greek Islands will still be in the Mediterranean, the real estate in Athens will be prime, the islands perfect as tourist resorts. $300B in paper is not the end of the world. Greece is an excellent long-term investment. The Germans are trying to get back what they lost in 1944, but they are being played as suckers by the master bijnejmen of Greece. So I look at who is being quiet - and that is China. Note that someone with LOTS of money, sold all their stocks in China a couple of weeks ago. Finding 300 billion there is not very difficult.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 Jul 2015 22:41

Greece crisis: Cracks appear in Franco-German axis as European leaders remain divided over country's fate

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/1173 ... apart.html
The EU’s bid to crush 'national egoism’ is tearing it apart
The dream of a cosily 'united Europe' is running into a brick wall of political reality

By Christopher Booker
11 Jul 2015

To understand why we are looking at an extraordinary watershed in history, we might ask what a series of events and dramas dominating the news have in common. We begin with the ongoing tragi-farce over Greece and the euro, following that referendum where the Greeks were asked to choose between a “Yes” campaign, which held that their country must remain firmly in both the euro and the EU, and a “No” campaign arguing equally firmly that Greece must remain in both the euro and the EU.

We go on with that chaos around the Channel Tunnel and across much of Europe over the ever-growing flood of desperate immigrants trying to find safety from Africa and the Middle East. We might continue with the impasse between the EU and Russia over Ukraine; or with the insistence by Germany and Poland that, to keep their economies functioning, they must – regardless of their commitment to the EU that they will reduce “carbon emissions” by 40 per cent within 15 years – continue to burn vast quantities of “CO2-polluting” coal.

The answer to what these have in common is that they all reflect the moment when, more obviously than ever before, the dream of a cosily “united Europe” is running into the brick wall of that very thing the “European project” was above all designed to rise above: a narrow sense of national interest. To the man who more than any set the “project” on its way, Jean Monnet, this was always its supreme purpose. He wanted to create a “supranational” government capable of eliminating that destructive evil which he described as “national egoism”.

For decades his dream seemed to be inching successfully towards its goal. But what we are seeing today is that the sense of national interest is so ingrained in human nature that it cannot be eliminated. The desperate Greeks, having seen their country crucified on the folly of the euro, fight crazily to survive as a nation without any idea of how this can be done. Many Germans, looking to their own interest, are fed up with having to pour their money into the bottomless pit of Greek debt – while the EU struggles to deal with a crisis it brought on itself, to which there is no sensible solution.

As for that unstoppable flood of immigrants, countries across Europe will do anything to avoid taking responsibility for them, leaving the EU equally impotent. The crisis with Russia was brought on entirely by the EU’s hubristic desire to absorb Ukraine into its own make-believe empire, provoking precisely that nationalistic response from the Russians, including those in Crimea, that the EU no longer understands.

For Germans and Poles, faced with a choice between their EU commitment to a fanciful target on reducing “carbon emissions” by nearly half and keeping their lights on by burning coal, it is a no-brainer (we British haven’t yet realised that we face the same choice).

So, wherever we look, we see Europe enmiring itself in a maze of unresolvable crises, each of which seems to be reaching an impasse. In the face of all these competing national interests, the EU looks dingier and more powerless by the day, Everywhere the fantasy that “national interest” could somehow be eliminated by a crackpot supra-national form of government is crashing into reality.

But still, like those poor Greeks and most people in Europe, we British also want to cling to that failed dream because, after decades of being caught up in its group think, our leaders have lost the ability to imagine that there could be any alternative. Those victims of an earlier collective dream, the Marxists, used to talk about “the contradictions inherent in late capitalism”, which would one day bring it crashing down. We are now trapped in what might be described as “the contradictions inherent in late-Europeanism”.

We are caught between that belief that we must all pool the interests of our countries in some artificial “common interest”, and the reality that, when it comes to the crunch, there is no way to stop that damned “national interest” reappearing. Such is the lesson which every day’s news should now be bringing home to us. But how we might escape from it, not a single politician can yet begin to give us a plausible answer.

And you thought it was Greece.Read on!
France is the sick man of Europe, says former French prime minister François Fillon

“Sick” France needs urgent reform, says former centre-Right prime minister, calling for major reforms to stop the “pauperisation” of the country
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... illon.html

By David Chazan, Paris

12 Jul 2015
France is “the sick man of Europe”, François Fillon, the former centre-Right prime minister, has said in an open letter to French president Francois Hollande, calling for urgent economic reforms.

“The Greek tragedy shows that the threat of bankruptcy is not abstract,” according to Mr Fillon, who headed the government of former president Nicolas Sarkozy until 2012.

Mr Hollande’s efforts to save Greece from exiting the eurozone have “temporarily eclipsed our own economic, social and financial failures,” Mr Fillon said.

Several French commentators writing about the Greek crisis in recent days have pointed out that France’s own national debt of more than €2 trillion (£1.4 trillion), amounting to 97.5 per cent of GDP, places it in the same league as Spain and other southern European countries.

However, many economists argue that France, unlike Greece, is too big to fail, and its creditors will continue to extend loans at preferential rates.

Mr Fillon urged the Socialist president to “unlock France from its 35-hour (working week) and introduce far-reaching economic reforms, including more flexible employment laws, in the letter published in the Journal du Dimanche newspaper.

“France is turning into a pauper and is seeking to regain its lost pride,” he said.

Mr Fillon, 61, is now seeking the centre-Right presidential nomination for the 2017 election, but is trailing Mr Sarkozy and another former prime minister, Alain Juppé, in the polls.

It is not the first time Mr Fillon has referred to France’s failure to balance its books over the past five decades.

After he became prime minister in 2007, Mr Fillon declared that he was “at the head of a bankrupt state” and he has also said that France should look to the example of Margaret Thatcher to see how to revive its economy.

He has now warned that if interest rates rise, France will plunge into economic turmoil.

“It is unbearable to see France slipping out of history and losing mastery of its destiny when it possesses all the assets to play a major role in the 21st century,” he said.

Mr Fillon also urged the president to take action to lower tensions in poor neighbourhoods controlled by “drug traffickers and fundamentalists”.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 Jul 2015 23:33

Latest chapter in the Greek Tragedy,Act 2 Scene 1:
Lovely name of one of the characters,"Ask-a-lot-of-us"!

http://www.theguardian.com/business/liv ... -deal-live
Greece debt crisis: Athens offered 'temporary Grexit' if no deal - live updates

Greece is being pushed to accept and implement even more austerity measures and reforms, or get a ‘time-out’ from the euro
Latest: Tsipras gets “mental waterboarding’ to accept deal
Draft agreement: Greece to be offered time-out if no deal
Economist: Germany wants Greece out
Leaders demanding dramatic reforms, by Wednesday(!)
Luxembourg pleads with Germany to avoid Grexit

Renzi to tell Merkel to end Greek humiliation
Introduction: Eurogroup meeting resumes

Syriza in shock over creditors' demands
Helena Smith Helena Smith

Over in Athens there is mounting angst that if Greece is pushed too far, political turbulence will almost certainly erupt.

Our correspondent Helena Smith reports

While Greece’s fate was being debated in Brussels, in Athens the ruling radical left Syriza party was exhibiting signs of disintegration. Demands that the controversial reforms be approved by the Greek government and enacted into law by Wednesday were described as “utter blackmail” by leading party members and met with stunned disbelief.

Although sources close to prime minister Alexis Tsipras said the leader was now determined to do whatever was needed to keep Grexit at bay, political tumult also beckoned. Insiders conceded that a cabinet reshuffle – removing those ministers who had refused to vote the austerity package through parliament early Saturday – could come as early as Monday.

“What is sure is that we are going to have dramatic political developments,” said Nikos Bistis, a veteran politician from the centre left. “Basically Syriza is now split in two.”

By late Sunday it had become clear Tsipras’ u-turn, accepting measures he had once furiously spurned, had produced a tectonic split with potentially far-reaching consequences. In addition to suffering an unexpected loss of support with 17 MPs breaking ranks at the weekend – defections that strip his government of a working majority – 15 other lawmakers also indicated that they would not approve the agreement in its entirety when it was brought to the 300-seat House.

The MPs, who included two ministers, said they were radically opposed to endorsing an austerity programme that was not only ideologically at odds with their own beliefs but would exacerbate “the country’s agonising and tragic social economic problems.”

The resistance raises the spectre of Tsipras being forced to call fresh elections – a move described as potentially catastrophic for the country.

“Greece can bend up to a point,” said Aristides Hatzis, a prominent political commentator. “But after that there is no bending, only breaking. The breaking point may well come when Tsipras realises he has lost most of his parliamentary group.”

The embattled prime minister will also face substantial resistance from the parliament’s speaker Zoe Konstantopoulou in getting the policies fast-tracked through the House.

A Syriza hardliner, Kostantopoulou said at the weekend:

“the government is being blackmailed. The lenders are insisting on turning the “no” [of last week’s referendum] into “yes.” I could never vote for the contents of the agreement

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 13 Jul 2015 01:36

UlanBatori wrote:Think long-term. 5 years from now the Greek Islands will still be in the Mediterranean, the real estate in Athens will be prime, the islands perfect as tourist resorts. $300B in paper is not the end of the world. Greece is an excellent long-term investment.

You could have said the same thing about Greece a decade ago and we will be in same situation a decade from now regardless of current outcome (GREXIT or EU Bailout). GRINVEST before GREXIT does not make sense for China and GREXIT before GRINVEST leaves little for Greece to negotiate.

Our long term interests are better served by keeping Greece in Euro, by keeping Euro in pressure, letting Euro/Europe drag US with it, and letting US keep screwing China. Let them all have merry playing each other.
We need to find a narrow dark alley meanwhile to steer our boat towards our goal.

UlanBatori wrote:Note that someone with LOTS of money, sold all their stocks in China a couple of weeks ago. Finding 300 billion there is not very difficult.

Question is only about what Greece has to offer in return. Greece is tied in Euro, EU, Europe, NATO etc. So many layers so little country. All the so called strategic options are not quite viable for countries to get involved in this IMO.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Jul 2015 04:50

You could have said the same thing about Greece a decade ago

You have a good point there. But I believe that most such things are cyclical, and 10-15 years is max period. Argentina was a notorious basket case back in the 1980s. Not so dismal any more. Mexico, well.... degree of basketcaseness fluctuates. Pakistan of course is unique, but even Pakonomy rose from broke in 1999 to just insolvent these days. Turkey is sort-of cyclical. Russia is quite cyclical. Even Japan has been in the dumps for well over a decade, and they have no shortage of productivity or initiative.
Lots of Greeks have made out like bandits through all this chaos, so there must be good value to be had in all the ups and downs. Aristotle Onassis comes to mind immediately - owned more ships than most national navies. I think the habit of pleading

V are boor countree onlee, what 2 do, v r like this onlee, all other beebal's fault!

is a national trait, as in Pakistan. I have to pity the Deutschlanders. For all their accounting acumen and tough talk, I think they are babes in the swamps where the Greeks are the gators.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 13 Jul 2015 05:44

However, many economists argue that France, unlike Greece, is too big to fail, and its creditors will continue to extend loans at preferential rates.

New Pakiness is "too big to fail"!

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 13 Jul 2015 05:58

Greek Public Debt (pdf)

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 13 Jul 2015 06:22

On deeper thinking today, I wonder why the EU members met on Sunday as opposed to the Eurozone members. If Greece defaulted and they had to be kicked out of the Euro, only the Eurozone members need to vote surely? What does the EU members have to do with it. Or is it that Germans and co are trying to put massive pressure on Greece and tying both together and trying to make it a take it all or leave it and get nothing game? --> this will be a redefining moment if it were indeed so.

If this is indeed the case, I expect a lot of phone calls from the other side of the atlantic pond to tell the Europeans to quit dreaming and get the deal done.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 13 Jul 2015 06:40

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... ls-tsipras

this is going to lead to trouble.

European leaders have confronted the Greek government with a draconian package of austerity measures entailing a surrender of fiscal sovereignty as the price of avoiding financial collapse and being ejected from the single currency bloc.

A weekend of high tension that threatened to break Europe in two climaxed on Sunday night at a summit of eurozone leaders in Brussels where the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and President François Hollande of France presented Greece’s radical prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, with an ultimatum.

In what a senior EU official described as an “exercise in extensive mental waterboarding” to secure Greek acquiescence to talks on a third bailout in five years worth up to €86bn (£62bn), the two leaders pressed for absolute certainty from Tsipras that he would honour what was on offer.
Two days of high-stakes negotiations between the finance ministers of the currency bloc resulted in a four-page document that included controversial German elements leaked on Saturday. Those measures included Greece leaving the euro temporarily by taking a “time-out” from the currency bloc if it refuses terms for talks on the new bailout or, in the event of agreement, that Greece sets aside €50bn worth of assets as collateral for new loans and for eventual privatisation. Both passages, however, did not enjoy a consensus among eurozone leaders.

Eurozone leaders say they are determined to try and find a solution to keep near-bankrupt Greece in the single currency on Sunday

Under the terms set before Tsipras on Sunday night, the Greek parliament has to endorse the entire package on Monday and then pass several pieces of legislation by Wednesday, including on pensions reform and a new VAT regime, before the eurozone will agree to negotiate a new three-year rescue package.

Greece is resisting its creditors’ demands for even more austerity measures and reforms in Brussels tonight, as bailout talks go to the wire

The terms are much stiffer than those imposed by the creditors over the past five years. This, said the senior official, was payback for the emphatic no to the creditors’ terms delivered by the snap referendum that Tsipras staged a week ago.

“He was warned a yes vote would get better terms, that a no vote would be much harder,” said the senior official.

The Eurogroup document said experts from the troika of creditors – the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and European Central Bank – would be on the ground in Athens to monitor the proposed bailout programme. The trio would also have a say in all relevant Greek draft legislation before it is presented to parliament. Furthermore, the Greeks will have to amend all legislation already passed by the Syriza government this year that had not been agreed with the creditors.

While Greece’s fate was being debated in Brussels, in Athens the ruling leftwing Syriza party was showing signs of disintegration. Demands that the reforms be approved by the Greek government and put into law by Wednesday were described as “utter blackmail” by leading party members and met with disbelief.

Although sources close to Tsipras said the leader was determined to do whatever was needed to keep Grexit at bay, political tumult also beckoned. Insiders conceded that a cabinet reshuffle – removing ministers who had refused to vote the austerity package through parliament early on Saturday – could come as early as Monday.

By late Sunday night it had become clear that Tsipras’s U-turn on measures he had once spurned had produced a potentially far-reaching split. In addition to 17 MPs breaking ranks at the weekend – stripping his government of a working majority – 15 other lawmakers also indicated they would not approve the agreement in its entirety. The resistance raises the spectre of Tsipras being forced to call fresh elections – a move described as potentially catastrophic for the country.

“Greece can bend up to a point,” said Aristides Hatzis, a prominent political commentator. “But after that there is no bending, only breaking.”

Although billed as the last chance to secure “the ultimate agreement” on the Greek debt crisis, the prospects of a grand political bargain to keep Greece in the eurozone are far from assured.

Entering the leaders’ meeting, Tsipras said he was looking for compromise: “We can reach an agreement if all parties want it.”

But France and Germany are split on their approach to the Greek question, while Finland could refuse outright to sign up to a third bailout for Greece.

France’s Hollande vowed to do everything possible to get an agreement on Sunday night, but Merkel said there wouldn’t be an agreement at any cost.

Other eurozone countries urged Germany to drop its objections. “Grexit has to be prevented,” said Jean Asselborn, the Luxembourg foreign minister. “It would be fateful for Germany’s reputation in the EU and the world.

“Germany’s responsibility is great. It’s about not conjuring up the ghosts of the past,” he told German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. “If Germany goes for Grexit, it will trigger a deep conflict with France. That would be a catastrophe for Europe.”

Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, was expected to tell Merkel at the leaders’ meeting that “enough is enough” and the eurozone should not humiliate Greece when it had already given up so much.

Earlier on Sunday, eurozone finance ministers said they had made some progress after 14 hours of talks over two days and failing to reach any agreement on Saturday. “We have come a long way, solved a lot of issues, but some big issues still remain,” said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs the Eurogroup of finance ministers.

Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, cancelled an emergency full summit of the 28 countries that was to deal with the fallout from Greece’s ejection, in order to give eurozone leaders a last chance to reach an accord saving Greece and forestalling what would be a devastating schism, sowing deep resentment and division between Europe’s leaders.

The intractable problem is that many governments do not trust the Greek government to implement a €12bn (£8.6bn) programme of spending cuts and reforms that will be delivered as part of a bailout. Eurozone governments are seeking proof from Athens it can keep its promises, in exchange for agreeing to start talks on a deal.

“The main obstacle to an agreement is trust,” said Pier Carlo Padoan, finance minister of Italy, one of the countries most sympathetic to Greece.

The Irish taoiseach, Enda Kenny, urged his fellow leaders to “look at the bigger picture”. Kenny, who has been Ireland’s leader since the early days of its own bailout programme, said in his country’s case trust was built incrementally.

“We don’t want to look back in 10 years’ time and think this could have been saved, but wasn’t,” he said.

The German news magazine Der Spiegel called Sunday the biggest day of Merkel’s 10-year chancellorship and appealed to her to “show greatness” and save Europe.

If Der Spiegel was right about the momentousness of Merkel’s day, the same could be said for Hollande of France who, with his government and officials, has been campaigning tirelessly in recent weeks to keep Greece in the euro, helping Athens to draft its proposals.

A decision to go ahead with a so-called Grexit, which has never been closer, would be a shattering failure for Hollande and the resulting Franco-German recrimination would be deeply damaging, say observers.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Jul 2015 06:42

In June 2015 Greece stands at a crossroads of choosing between furthering the failed macroeconomic adjustment programmes imposed by the creditors or making a real change to break
the chains of debt. The Truth Committee has a mandate to raise awareness of issues pertaining to the Greek debt, both domestically and internationally, and to formulate arguments and options concerning the cancellation of the debt. ...
Having concluded its preliminary investigation, the Committee considers that Greece has been and still is the victim of an attack premeditated and organized by the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and the European Commission. This violent, illegal, and immoral mission aimed exclusively at shifting private debt onto the public sector.

Q.E.D. as Pythagoras would have said.

IOW, it is clear that Greece WANTS to get out of the EU and say

to the EU **AND** the IMF. So in the whole tamasha, the roles are reversed in public perception: EU actually NEEDS Greece to stay because once out of the EU, Greece is just going to say that the debt was illegal, immoral and abusive, and a conspiracy. Why shouldn't PeeAllSee come to the rescue to help the Greek Proletariat break free of the chains imposed by the Capitalist Imperialist Running Dogs, hain? Seems onry the noble thing to do.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 13 Jul 2015 06:49

I missed this: Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, cancelled an emergency full summit of the 28 countries that was to deal with the fallout from Greece’s ejection, in order to give eurozone leaders a last chance to reach an accord saving Greece and forestalling what would be a devastating schism, sowing deep resentment and division between Europe’s leaders.

So, someone has thought through and cancelled and made it only a Eurozone meet. Wonder if the rest who were called anyway were *on just as observers*?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Jul 2015 06:59

Anger at the demands on Greece, gathered on social media under the hashtag #thisisacoup is gaining traction.
Nobel laureate economist, Paul Krugman, has lambasted the summit developments in his column at the New York Times, and thrown his support behind #thisisacoup.

Suppose you consider Tsipras an incompetent twerp. Suppose you dearly want to see Syriza out of power. Suppose, even, that you welcome the prospect of pushing those annoying Greeks out of the euro. Even if all of that is true, this Eurogroup list of demands is madness. The trending hashtag ThisIsACoup is exactly right. This goes beyond harsh into pure vindictiveness, complete destruction of national sovereignty, and no hope of relief. It is, presumably, meant to be an offer Greece can’t accept; but even so, it’s a grotesque betrayal of everything the European project was supposed to stand for.

Why can't the Greeks just call the EU's bluff and walk out? Will Germany invade? Surely France won't - they will surrender to the first Greek soldier they see. Do they have lots of money outside that can be seized by the creditors? On whose authority?

Tsipras seeking 4 changes to EG note: 1 No IMF involvement. 2 Stronger statement on debt. 3 Signal to ECB to maintain ELA. 4 Scrap 50bn idea.

Meanwhile, there is nooooo inbred corruption in EU:

The Press Project has done some digging on the Luxembourg "Institution for Growth" to which the 4-page eurogroup paper demands that €50bn of Greek state property must be transferred. Guess what. This Luxembourg "institution" is wholly owned subsidiary of German KfW and the chairman of its board is a certain Wolfgang Schäuble.

Sounds like a very public mugging. The whole EU structure is as honest as FIFA!!!!!

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 13 Jul 2015 07:03

Tsipras is a bigger fool than I thought. After all the shenanigans and the referendum they are now accepting an even more draconian package than what was being offered before? A coup sounds liek a good idea now. This guy needs to be thrown out on his backside quickly.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Jul 2015 07:07

Tsipras is nobody's fool. He has managed to expose the EU gang for what they are: Vicious, greedy loan-sharks and personally corrupt/nepotis, inbred bunch of hotel-maid-rapists. Look at Krugman's comments - devastating indictment. With this demonstration, he will go back and flaunt the Truth Committee Report, and declare all EU and IMF debt illegal and therefore cancel it as being not binding on the Greek people. And world opinion will be on his side. Demands will rise inside the EU to investigate and hang the leadership.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 13 Jul 2015 07:14

UlanBatori wrote:Tsipras is nobody's fool. He has managed to expose the EU gang for what they are: Vicious, greedy loan-sharks and personally corrupt/nepotis, inbred bunch of hotel-maid-rapists. Look at Krugman's comments - devastating indictment. With this demonstration, he will go back and flaunt the Truth Committee Report, and declare all EU and IMF debt illegal and therefore cancel it as being not binding on the Greek people. And world opinion will be on his side. Demands will rise inside the EU to investigate and hang the leadership.

We'll see if this comes to pass. But the fact remains that this fellow exhorted his people to reject the bailout conditions in a referendum, and after they did that, he went ahead and accepted even more stringent conditions, completely forgetting (?) of course that he came to power promising an end to austerity.

Whatever exposure of the EU pakis has happened seems to be a side effect rather than intentional on his part.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Jul 2015 07:17

Question is: what is the consequence of simply refusing to pay the debt? He has declared the debt illegal, abusive etc and this summit has had the effect of swinging world opinion against the creditors. Maybe he simply cannot do the walk-out. If u were President of Pakistan, and 135% of your voters voted in a Referendum to launch a nuclear attack on the evil YYY, would you do it? Maybe he has a little bit of sense left too.

niran · Post by **niran** » 13 Jul 2015 07:25

UlanBatori wrote:Question is: what is the consequence of simply refusing to pay the debt? He has declared the debt illegal, abusive etc and this summit has had the effect of swinging world opinion against the creditors. Maybe he simply cannot do the walk-out. If u were President of Pakistan, and 135% of your voters voted in a Referendum to launch a nuclear attack on the evil YYY, would you do it? Maybe he has a little bit of sense left too.

the worst would be Greece kicked out of Euro, and the consequence would be their pickled Olives and Yoghurt (Curd or Dahi) will be taxed with import duties in Euro zones they will have apply for visa to travel their etc. etc. not a bad prospect in the long term.

forgot to add whole of Euro will be projected as big bad jew (as in that Jew money lender in Shakespeare play) trying to chop off the muscle from poor innocent greeks.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 13 Jul 2015 07:55

It’s very difficult indeed to design plans for Greece that are actually worse than that one the European Union is trying to impose upon that benighted country. Decades of enforced poverty in order to maintain a currency (and possibly even a political order) that the country should never have embraced, should never have been allowed into, just isn’t one of those things that would win you a gold star in your high school economics class. Everyone from Milton Friedman to Paul Krugman, with a few insignificant bag carriers like myself bringing up the rear, has been screaming that the problem is the euro and while that remains so will the problem.

However, amazingly, the German finance ministry seems to have managed to come up with a plan that is even worse. They’re suggesting that the European Union should run, directly, the Greek economy. Overturn the elected government of a sovereign state, turn the place into a mere satrapy of the technocrats in Brussels and….well, words rather fail at that point. If they think that people in Athens shouting about Nazi war crimes and reparations is a bit rude at present then they’re going to have something of an awakening as the full richness of Greek invective is let loose on this idea.

And sadly I’m not in fact making this up: they really are suggesting that Brussels take over the running of the Greek economy:

“Should no deal be forthcoming, the German government has made preparations to negotiate a temporary five-year euro exit, providing Greece with humanitarian aid while it makes the transition.
An incendiary plan drafted by Berlin’s finance ministry, with the backing of Angela Merkel, laid out two stark options for Greece: either the government submits to drastic measures such as placing €50bn of its assets in a trust fund to pay off its debts, and have Brussels take over its public administration, or agree to a “time-out” solution where it would be expelled from the eurozone.

A five year absence from the euro isn’t necessary: 5 minutes would do it. For what is really required is simply that a Greek euro becomes worth some 70% or so of everyone elses’ euros. And that’s the problem solved: at least until the Greek government manages to mess things up again in another generation. Not that that is an entirely serious suggestion of course.

But then it’s also incredibly difficult to believe that the German (and it did have to be the German, didn’t it, given the history of the 1940s) finance ministry seriously suggested this:

“The German paper, which Schaeuble presented in the meeting, demanded that Athens transfer state assets worth 50 billion euros into a trust fund to pay down debt, or take a five-year “time-out” from the euro zone during which some of its debt would be written off.

Sigh.

“The German paper’s proposals included transferring E50bn of assets to an “external fund” for privatisation and European Commission supervision of the Greek public administration. A eurogroup official indicated that the paper showed the thinking of the Berlin finance ministry.

Doesn’t anyone ever read any history these days? In the mid-19th century Greece rather had problems with King Otto, whose Bavarian regents and ministers were rather hated by the Greeks they ruled. And yes there was a default on the external debt and then various foreign nations occupied the port of Piraeus in order to make sure that there was repayment and…..

The port of Piraeus being, of course, one of those assets that Greece would need to pledge into that €50 billion fund today. By the way, that 19th century occupation of the port didn’t in fact work, the debt wasn’t repaid: there was just another default.

I guess we can conclude that the German finance ministry hasn’t quite got the point of this studying history thing yet. As has been pointed out, those who don’t are doomed to repeat it. Therefore the point of doing that study is to work out which things that were done did not work and then not repeat them. Rather than as seems to be happening here, taking past failures as blueprints for how to screw things up even further today.

It’s usually an error to accuse Germans of a lack of seriousness but I do hope that this is some dark joke rather than an actual policy proposal. Turn Greece into a subject province of Brussels? Ho ho: now, can we get the adults in the room and be serious for a moment?

Frances Coppola has a less gloomy assessment of what is going on here.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall ... than-this/

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 13 Jul 2015 09:03

the Greeks seriously torqued some EU jaws with their socialist agitprop, street theater, election and name calling. Straight out of Mao's "running dog" play book.

now the Greeks can enjoy their harvest of what they have sowed in leisure. bon apetit! Isn't that a yummy aroma coming from the public soup kitchens in Athens?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 13 Jul 2015 10:00

Interestingly,on the Beeb this morning in Hard Talk,there was an Italian being asked about the "Mob" virus penetrating every section of Italian society.He said this was true for all of Europe! Dirty money,criminally obtained money was at the heart of the EU's problems. We see it very evident in the UKR,a "project" state of the EU and NATO,where neo-fascist forces have usurped the country and in typical oligarch fashion and sharing the spoils,even selling off the country to non-UKR citizens. London loves its Eastern European oligarchs,oily Arab money,stained money from African warlords and despots,any dictator is welcome,esp. goons like Gen.Mush-a-rat,the bandicoot of Pak who gets (Spl. Branch security too!) why housing prices in London are skyrocketing.ankers

But the biggest brigands of all are the bankers,who are allowed never to collapse, who like cats ,have 9 lives,always reinfused with more capital from central banks who just print more money.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 13 Jul 2015 10:06

UlanBatori wrote:Maybe he has a little bit of sense left too.

Greece: You take major haircut and we still want to stay in Euro. If you don't like it, please pretty please kick us out and we won't pay anything.

Germany: You submit a plan of fiscal balance and debt payment, else choose to exit Greece. We will still come after you for debt payment.

Each one wants the grexit to be the decision of other party. Greece's referendum gives sort of legal/moral cover to avoid paying debt after the separation. Separation will still be painful.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 13 Jul 2015 12:22

Associated Press is reporting that the EU and Greece have reached an agreement.
https://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/lates ... 15672.html
Thed etails of the deal are still not known.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 13 Jul 2015 13:21

As expected. The pol costs are far too much. Tsipiras might get shunted out though.
This deal seems shameful and seems quite against the populace now. Why go for a referenda only to go back on almost everything? This seems quite idiotic.

amit · Post by **amit** » 13 Jul 2015 13:39

vijaykarthik wrote:As expected. The pol costs are far too much. Tsipiras might get shunted out though.
This deal seems shameful and seems quite against the populace now. Why go for a referenda only to go back on almost everything? This seems quite idiotic.

This is something I wrote on the Perspectives thread a couple of days ago:

IMO Tsipras always knew that the only way forward was to accept the Euro zone measures. But he also knew that would destroy his political career as the measures would begin to bite. So, again IMO, he hatched this idea of a referendum on a deal that was already off the table after shutting down the banking system and creating panic so that there would be a Yes vote - in fact early projections showed 57 per cent of Greeks were in favor of Yes vote. In that case he would have resigned and waited in the sidelines as a martyr and let someone else clean up the mess and get unpopular and come back as a saviour. The No (which surprised many folks) put paid to that and now he has to bear and grin.

You will notice many points in the Greek proposal is the same or similar to what ECB had initially asked for. So if he agreeable to that then why the initial Dada giri?

Link

Tsipras played a high stakes political poker game with the hope of losing the referendum (due to a Yes vote).

Didn't work out and now he'll probably pay the price of populism.

Going out of the Euro was never an option for the Greeks, whatever the romantics (

) on this forum think. 320 billion euro debt for 11 million people is not something that will just go away, even if the Greeks leave the Eurozone, that's around 29,000 euros of debt for each Greek citizen, not counting Paki illegal immigrants.

Personally I would have liked that to have happened if for nothing else than to give those bunch of technocrats sitting in Brussels indigestion before they bite into their croissants during breakfast.

Without a bailout, how the hell is Tsipras going to pay his civil servants? By printing drachmas? Heck they don't even have money to pay to the printing press.

IMO it was all about preserving Tsipras (and his party's) political prospects. Didn't work out and now the Greeks are going to go through a lot of pain and guess who they are going to blame?

PS: IMO all this "disagreement" between France and Italy on the one hand and Germany and the Slavic states on the other, was a dog and pony show staged by the friendly Brussels used car salesmen. The talk about these used car salesmen taking over the running of gobermint from the mob in the Agora seems to have vanished, na?

Added later:

A breakthrough came in a meeting between Tsipras, Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and EU President Donald Tusk, after the threat of expulsion from the euro put intense pressure on Tsipras to swallow politically unpalatable austerity measures in exchange for the country's third bailout in five years.

"We took the responsibility of the decision to be able to avert the harshest outcome," Tsipras said. "We managed to avert the demand to transfer Greek assets abroad, to avert the collapse of the banking system."

The deal includes commitments from Tsipras to push a drastic austerity program including pension, market and privatization reforms through parliament by Wednesday.

Link

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 13 Jul 2015 15:34

The "aGreekment" has to be passed by the Greek parliament.Whether it will vote yes to Greece becoming a German "protectorate",with impotent economic powers is still on the cards,as Greece has to plave its assets in a "Trust" and the Germans don't trust the Greeks. EU members must also vote "yes" after Greece capitulates. That's the price it has to pay for staying in the Eurozone.
I feel that this "aGreekment" is only postponing the inevitable.

Gripping minute by minute details of the deal,many calling a "coup",a Greek takeaway by the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
b]Greece strikes an 'a-Greek-ment' with creditors as full details of deal emerge after 17 hours of talks [/b]
Greece news live: Greeks capitulate to austerity and external monitoring to after 17 hours of late night talks end in 'a-Greek-ment'

Analysis and reaction of the deal as Greek agreement is reached at last following 17 hours of tense negotiations among eurozone leaders and ministers

By Mehreen Khan, Ben Wright

13 Jul 2015
• Deal reached with creditors after 17-hour negotiations
• Key markets rise on the back of the news
• Finance ministers discussed "temporary" Grexit
• Creditors demand legislation on reforms passed by July 15
• #ThisIsACoup: Social media backlash against Germany
• The countries that wanted Greece out of the eurozone

How much emergency cash to they need?
So we won't start talks on a new bail-out programme up to around €85bn until probably next week.
In the meantime, the Greeks need money to continue paying off their debts. That is estimated to be around €7bn over the next month.

Tomorrow, a relatively small €100m Japanese samurai bond comes due; that's followed by another €450m to the IMF and a big €3.3bn to the ECB next Monday.

The Greeks will also have to clear some arrears worth €1.6bn to the Fund.

11.22
Renzi: I didn't agree want Luxembourg fund for Greek assets
Matteo Renzi has been pushing hard to end Greece's "humiliation."

Nick Squires in Rome now reports comments fom the Italian PM saying he strongly disagreed with the idea of putting up to €50bn of Greek state assets in a trust fund in Luxembourg. The final agreement is for the same amount but for the Fund to be based in Greece

Germany had initially wanted to set up the fund and have it managed by its own national development bank. Mr Renzi says that would have been a huge humiliation for the Greeks.

"I was pretty insistent in saying that if you have to set up a fund with Greek assets, you cannot even think about putting it in Luxembourg. For me, that would be a humiliation. I was the first to intervene on that, in strong terms."

Meanwhile, leader of Italy's anti-euro, anti-establishment Five Star movement, Beppe Grillo has accused the EU of using terror tactics against the Greeks, forcing Tsipras to accept punishing conditions for a third bail-out. 11.10

Bridge financing to nowhere?
The European Commission's daily press briefing has just kicked off.

Spokesman and Greek Margaritis Schinas says "after months of hard work" the Commission is satisfied and they now have "a partnership based on trust"

Mr Schinas says the IMF's involvement has to depend on Greece paying back its arrears and to making its commitment to pass prior actions.

However, on the question on whether Greece can set some emergency loans, he says there is "not much information about the bridge financing...this will become clearer during the day."

There is a suggestion that Greece will get bridging mechanism to use an old EU fund, which Bruno Waterfield of The Times points out to Mr Schinas, cannot be used as stated under the treaty which established it.

However, Mr Schinas said the legal mechanism to release such cash does "exist"

11.13
The cow is not yet off the ice

German economists are seeing the dispute over debt as far from being solved, despite the understanding of a new bailout package. Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) said on Monday: "It would be premature to see the agreement as a success. It is merely a first step to stopping Greece's economic downward spiral."

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, holds a similar view, using a German idiom to sum up his caution to say that we're not out of danger yet, but the risk has been reduced - it translates as: "The cow is not off the ice, but the ice has grown thicker."

10.55
Deja-EU?
10.34
German reaction

The agreement on Greece has sparked a mixed reaction from German MPs across the political spectrum. Dieter Janecek, parliamentary spokesman for the Green Party, wrote: "Merkel speaks about lost trust. No one destroyed more trust that night than Germany #NoGrexit #Greece"

In stark contrast, head of the German federal chancellery Peter Altmaier hailed the agreement, tweeting: “Europe has won. Impressive and strong. Germany was a part of the solution from beginning to end! Good for Greece and for the euro!”

Bild, Germany's best selling daily and a good gauge of popular opinion in the country, has a new online headline, next to a picture of a tired-looking Angela Merkel - "After all those promises about there not being a third bail-out, here's another 86 BILLION euros for Greece."

10.32
Det(devil)ail

The Telegraph has seen a copy the final deal document. We'll do a comprehensive filleting job soon, but in the meantime here are the key points:

The seven page document states that Greeks have until Wednesday to pass laws that:

• implement VAT hikes

• cut pensions

• take steps to ensure the independence of Greece's statistics office is maintained

• put measures in place that would automatically slash spending if Greece fails to meet its targets on primary surpluses (revenue minus expenditure excluding debt servicing costs)

The biggest change to the wording relates to the €50bn privatisation fund, which will now be managed by the Greeks and some of the money will be used for growth initiatives.

It has until July 22 (an extra week compared with the draft statement) to:

• overhaul its civil justice system

• implement the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) to bring its bank resolution laws in line with the rest of the EU.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Jul 2015 15:58

Germans are fighting history.
Someone should study the historic rate of return over the past 300 years:
a) For foreigners investing money in Greece
b) For Greeks investing money abroad.
Suddenly we will see how Greece has continued to enjoy a high standard of living through the centuries. I knew they are smart people, just not how smart!

So net result is: More of hard-earned German money goes in Greece, and Greece will grin and say in another 3 years: "All illegal loans". Those were made to my cousin Kleptos Allathievos, not to me, so it ain't my problem!

So I think they can do that tomorrow, at 7%, and sell them all through Goldman-Sachs. Buy Government-backed Bonds! 7 times the rate of return that you can get on US Treasuries, 70 times the rate of return on US Money Market funds. GREAT for pension and 401K funds(fund managers)

Note that LAST APRIL (!!!) Greece was able to float a 3B Euro bond at 4.95%. Think for a moment: Who bought those other than Greeks? Surely no one who was using their own money, and no one who intended to hold on to those bonds for more than a day, hain?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 13 Jul 2015 17:44

Kleptos, Allathievos, not to me, so it ain't my problem!

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Jul 2015 19:21

Capitalist Imperialist Running Dog View

How cunning was that plan? Tsipras Has Vandalized Greece 14 Jul 13, 2015 9:24 AM EDT By Marc Champion
What has Alexis Tsipras achieved for the Greek people?
.. came away with a much worse deal than the one he just persuaded Greek voters to reject. Now he must sell it to his parliament and people. The decision to set up a fund into which the country has to place 50 billion euros ($55 billion) worth of assets for privatization is the kind of thing that courts do to bankrupt companies ruled no longer competent to manage their own recovery.

Greece's Fiscal Odyssey
The demand that Greece's parliament must, within three days, legislate for measures the government has in the past described as "criminal" and "terrorist" only underscores the degree to which Greece's economic sovereignty has been suspended. No matter what the parliament decides and whether Greece ultimately stays in the euro or leaves, Europe will pay a price down the road for such a vengeful act. Many Greeks are enraged, and the prominent role played by Germany in driving such a harsh bargain has awakened old stereotypes, which the European Union and its common currency were designed to dispel forever. Right now, however, it is Tsipras whom Greeks should blame. Consider where the country was a little more than a year ago, when his political party Syriza burst onto the scene by winning Greek elections to the European Parliament. The party argued that, were it not for the supine approach that the country's then center-right government was taking toward its creditors, Greece could end austerity measures, return to prosperity and keep the euro. That was not true, but it was attractive.

Times were still very tough for Greece in 2014. In April of that year, however, the country returned to international bond markets for the first time in four years, selling 3 billion euros worth of five-year securities at an interest rate of 4.95 percent. Unemployment, having hit a high of 27.5 percent in 2013, was falling. By April 2015, the latest available figure, the jobless rate was 25.6 percent. Economic growth had also returned to positive territory, hitting 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, a rate substantially higher than the 0.9 percent euro area average, according to Eurostat. .. The euro area needed then, and still needs, to come to terms with writing off Greek debt. Yet it's hard to call what has happened in Greece over the past year anything but a self-inflicted act of economic vandalism.

By the second half of 2014, Tsipras's political promises were popular enough to prompt former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras to hold back on fulfilling some of the required bailout terms. He forced early elections in an attempt to regain support for sticking with the bailout, arguing correctly but unsuccessfully that the alternative would be for Greece to exit the euro.

Greece then lost its ability to borrow in the market again. Over the past six months, the four-year benchmark bond has traded at an average yield of just under 16 percent. And while the data aren't yet available to track Greece's unemployment and output over the past few months, they have certainly turned negative -- especially since the imposition of capital controls forced the economy into a hard stop.
Last year, Greece's banks were solvent. Throughout 2013, confidence about the country's place in the euro grew, and people were bringing money back to deposit. As Syriza rose and the political situation became less certain, however, confidence in Greece's economic future began to wane. This year, those flows have turned sharply negative, gutting the financial system from within and forcing it onto life support at the European Central Bank. As a result, even a less punitive bailout deal would have put Greece in a worse position, because the cost of digging out of its financial hole has risen significantly.
Tsipras gambled with his country's fortunes, betting that the rest of the euro area would be so fearful of creating a precedent for an exit that they would capitulate to his demands and write him a blank check. The strategy reached its apogee with his absurd July 5 referendum, in which he asked Greeks to vote against the latest bailout proposal, while again promising that this would not put Greece's euro membership at risk. He has now capitulated, apparently aware that he has no mandate to leave the euro. And so his lie is exposed, together with its cost to the Greek people.... Regrettably, this is not over. As a result of the prime minister's actions and Europe's brutal response, Tsipras -- or a successor Greek government -- may yet get a mandate to abandon the euro.
To contact the author on this story:
Marc Champion at mchampion7@bloomberg.net. To contact the editor on this story:
Mary Duenwald at mduenwald@bloomberg.net

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 13 Jul 2015 22:36

http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2015/0 ... -spending/

One of the oddities of Greece’s bailout programme has been that, despite five years of punishing austerity, its military budget remains amongst the highest in the EU.
...
Defence spending is a highly sensitive subject in any country, and the document notes that the third Greek bailout monitor, the International Monetary Fund, is prohibited in its rules from requiring military cuts as part of a bailout programme.
...
.... even with cuts undertaken over the course of the bailout programme, as of 2013 Greece was still spending more as a percentage of gross domestic product than any other Nato ally save the US or Britain, and is “by far” the country with the largest share of military personnel to population in the EU.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 13 Jul 2015 23:00

Why the defense budget of Greece is so high:
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-gree ... igh-2015-6

But there are three major reasons Greece has kept its military budget so high even in a time of economic crisis: personnel costs, regional geopolitics, and domestic political pressures.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-gree ... z3fnPJ4zCr

The final reason Athens may have been reluctant to cut defense spending is political pressure from Germany and France, the Guardian notes. Berlin sent almost 15% of its arms exports to Greece in 2012, with France sending almost 10% in 2012.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Greece continued to buy large quantities of weaponry from the two countries between 2010 to 2014, some of the worst years of its economic depression. During this time, Athens bought $551 million worth of military equipment from Germany and $136 million of equipment from France.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 Jul 2015 01:12

That is because they expect to go to war against Turkey and maybe Serbia and Bulgaria and Albania any day. I am surprised that EU weapon sales to Greece were under $1B/yr. A pittance compared to Pakistan. I though most of the debt was Germany paying itself.