Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attack

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 16:12

shiv wrote:My own reactions are emotion based. I feel this way after each attack and I am certain everyone else, including PMs advisers probaby echo my feeling.


This is okay but saying things like before a high authority risks being dismissed as being reactionary. I have difficulty believing that any professional security personality will entertain such a personal risk of credibility loss. That said - I don't know anything about who is saying what.

@yvijay

The imagery being put out through the media is confusing. The darkbond images of four bodies not three. This is does not gel with what PAP has told us about the number of attackers or with the video data released. Maybe we are not looking at the right images. The photos SBajwa and Liveleak published appear to be a mixture of photos from the present event and those from other events. I find this curious.

@vayu tuvan,

I certainly did not know that Pasha was no Gul in November 2008. Hindsight is 20/20. An opportunity was squandered - was it the first or last? - I honestly don't know.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 16:15

pankajs wrote:Navroop Singh ‏@s_navroop 1h1 hour ago

Gurdaspur attack: US government marks on night-vision devices used by terrorists ---http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/gurdaspur-terror-attack-us-government-marks-on-night-vision-devices-used-by-terrorists/ …


Unless the model number can be traced to a shipment made to Pakistan, it will be difficult to link this to them. A model number from a US or NATO inventory will point to Afghanistan as a likely source.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 16:42

Akshay Kapoor wrote:Deat Harpal Bector,

I get the sense that either you have been part of the advisory chain to PM, DM etc or have some arm chair knowledge of it. Assuming its the first, I have just one thing to say 'there in lies the problem'.

If the 'advisors' of a nation reeling under overt terrorism for over 2 decades and a close to 100 k death toll still turn a blind eye to mountains of evidence; and wont do their duty (to speak to PM, DM et all) to protect their careers, then we are getting exactly what we deserve. I have personally been in CI Ops and could give you reams of evidence, and I am sure you will send a bigger dossier to the Pakis. And then what ?

Please read Gen Hasnain's recent article to get a lesson in clarity of thought. Or listen to Maroof Raza or Gen Bkashi.

Sir, what will it take to get you to advice the new 'grandmaster in Suhrawaddy street' ? Our dear brothers should not be deprived of your talents.

best regards


Dear Akshay,

I am only sharing what I understood from some matters that passed before my eyes. I cannot comment on others. I have a sense of how the chain works and why it works the way it does. I have never found it worth my while to ask questions like "why does the chain work this way only?" or "why doesn't it work differently" etc... I leave that to others.

Ultimately everyone sits in an armchair and has to rationalize the information presented to them. The most common technique is separate things into conjecture and hard facts.

Conjecture is entertained in the heat of the situation, but beyond a point one cannot sustain interest in it.

As "hard facts" go - generally speaking in today's age, electronic and material evidence obtained by third parties (such as reputed government labs with a long history of securing convictions in courts or even private phone companies) are placed on a higher level than what is obtained from interrogations of captured terrorists. This is more a reflection of the general lack of trust in confessions as there is too much abuse in that regard already.

At the risk of sounding insulting to your experience and service - it is not the job of the security professional to draw conclusions for the PM! It is the PM's prerogative how much weight to attach to what portion of the "hard facts" but it is the security professionals job to present the data as it is best as possible. If the PM requests a discussion on the options - then that is a separate responsibility that must be shouldered in the appropriate way.

I am a little confused by your perspective - in an environment where no one even speaks out of turn in a conference, mixing unsupported conjecture with "option-eering" is the surest way to get kicked out of the conference room. Surely you have direct knowledge of such things? Don't tell me you have never presented an opinion before your CO without adequate support - how long did it take for your peers to shut you down? did the CO even acknowledge your comment? - it is simple group psychology - nothing terribly complicated in this.

I am sure Gen. Hasnain, Raza sahab and Gen. Bakshi all have valid points.

If the "Grandmaster of Suhrawardy Street" exists - then India faces a formidable foe.

As it stands if the conjectures of Pakistanis sponsorship are true then the Grandmaster of Suhrawardy Street has pulled off two straight wins. He has gotten most of the Panjshiris booted from the Aminat and this Gurdaspur attack is permitting the exploration of the true strategic response timescales of the Modi government. Even if Modiji launches an airstrike on LeT HQ and kills dozens of Jihadis - there is no real problem - there are plenty more where they came from. The Grandmaster's objectives will have been achieved - a timescale will be available with which to calibrate Pakistani national security options.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Jul 2015 16:59

^^^ Sorry, Harpalji, but the above is dhoti-shivering.

1. Had the railway track bomb gone off killing scores of people and/or the attack on the bus killed scores of people, might not the "true strategic response timescale of the Modi government" be different?

2. As long as the timescale of the response is some finite number, isn't the effectiveness of the response far more important than whether it is one day or twenty days?

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby UlanBatori » 29 Jul 2015 16:59

^^ Most likely result is that there will be no visible response, no taking of credit, but something nasty may happen to some entities, like generals close to center of power. No claims of credit.

Then TSP will be forced to try another attack - and the Full Response may come right on the heels of that attack, maybe even as it is in progress. So time scale may seem reduced to 0 and even pre-emptive. The beauty of "disproportionate" and "unexpected" is that the strike(s) will be planned and trained-for, independent of what the Pakis are doing. It is a declaration that India will strike wherever and whenever, and it can be ascribed as Response to Attack # XYZ123. Think about that. Will we see India take 'credit'? Probably not, and I am not going to start a practice of blaming India for Freedom Fighters conducting totally justified Liberation Strikes inside Pakistan. We should not be so immature as to keep asking for advertised chest-thumping reactions. Just read the news and hear of the costs mounting for Pakistan. Now think about the last 2 years.....

The downside of this policy is that every time something bad happens in TSP (which is every day), ppl will say: There goes RAA again!

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Jul 2015 17:23

Let's also take a very cold-hearted look at things. If economic growth is the underpinnings of India's strategy to improve the security environment in its favor, then the terrorists in the North-east are far more relevant than Pakistani terrorists. The relevant time-scale is that which India did its cross-border raid, and on which it is trying to advance security cooperation with Myanmar. As realists let us recognize that even if Pakistan is quiet, there is no trade, trade routes, etc., that are going to come from there. Let us recognize that India can (with Japanese partnership, perhaps) keep Myanmar out of the Chinese orbit; but with Pakistan there is no chance of that.

The last N centuries has been about the strategic threat from India's north-west. The revolutionary change is it is now about the strategic opportunities to India's north-east. Most Indians are still stuck in the old mind-set. Muslims, Islam, Pakistan, Partition still dominate the "Indian" imagination. I put "Indian" in quotes because Pakistan is the preoccupation of a particular elite in India, not of all of India. IMO, it is time to (symbolically) move India's capital back to Calcutta.

To answer Shiv, Indian public needs to be educated that Pakistan is largely irrelevant; not just that Pakistan is in 2 camps or 5 camps or whatever.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Gagan » 29 Jul 2015 17:32

If GOI is serious about capturing these people alive, how hard is it for ofb to manufacture and deploy sedative grenades?
Make it a ready item with all swat teams and NSG

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby yvijay » 29 Jul 2015 17:36

UlanBatori wrote:So unanswered questions:
1. 5 Pakis shown chummy. Only 3 bodies. 2 unaccounted.

UlanBatori ji, That photo showing jihadi's posing in army fatigues is unrelated to the Gurdaspur attack. They were probably newly trained Kashmiri terrorists. The photo went viral few days back.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Rahul M » 29 Jul 2015 18:07

Harpal Bector wrote:So far no material link to Pakistan.
you were saying ?
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... of-attack/

@Akshay Kapoor ji, plz check PM. (top right corner should say '1 new message')

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Atri » 29 Jul 2015 18:14

Rahul M wrote:
Harpal Bector wrote:So far no material link to Pakistan.
you were saying ?
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... of-attack/

@Akshay Kapoor ji, plz check PM. (top right corner should say '1 new message')


This is known fact and no pratyaksha pramaaNa to implicate Pak as per harpal ji.

Indian express news article wrote:The group, the sources said, turned on their GPS sets early on Monday, shortly after crossing into Indian territory.


This is what Harpal ji said few posts ago here -
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7067&p=1877166&hilit=+gps#p1877166

Harpal Bector wrote:http://www.india.com/news/india/gurdaspur-attackers-had-come-using-ravi-river-had-more-plans-481041/

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 244114.cms

per recent sources.

The point of entry is Bamiyal Village which is 26 km from Parmanand. One point of view doing rounds is that they forded the canal to get into India despite the fast flow. The only place where you could go with the flow and end up in India in that area is the Pakistani village of Fathoi Chak. If you enter the river there you would end up near the Kamalpur Jattan area in India. No BSF posts are visible in the area. This appears to be based on the GPS module which was turned on after the attackers crossed the border.

Then they made it to the Dhussi Bandh which runs along the Dorangla Galahri road.

By walking along the road they made it to Parmanand. It is not clear how they made it unobserved along this road.


Chaarvaakian insistence on "pratyaksha pramaaNa onlee" usually leads one only thus far, if not always. Violent Islamism can only be defeated by more-violent blood-drinking kaali who is more unpredictable than raktabeeja. Raktabeeja was chaotic (every drop -> new demon) but there was order in that chaos. No one thought Kaali would drink all the drops before the drop fell on ground. Therein lies the secret of her victory.

On the side-note two facts -
A. Pakistan ka matlab kya - la ilaha illallah -> i.e. Islamism.
B. Only communism and mongols have successfully temporarily beaten Islamism into submission so far. Reconquista was a long drawn out war of 800 years. India's war too is similarly long drawn out (1200 years). Reconquista over only after savaa-ser violence by christians.

The scenario painted by Singha ji here is very much real and upon us - viewtopic.php?p=1877027#p1877027

Singha wrote:perhaps the looming water crisis in TSP with the Indus essentially being sent to its death will hasten the formation of a vast armed kabila willing and able to launch a frontal assault on india - some 25 million perhaps armed to razakar levels to support the regular jihadis in uniform....the biggest army in the world and bigger than next 10 combined in manpower. Saif-ul-Islam.

we need to develop conventional weapons of great 'area effect' on a mass scale and make as cheap as possible to deal with the coming 'peoples war' by mid-century

we need to also up the 15 yr old single line rusted Raj and Guj border fences to J&K-Punjab levels .... it will take some time.



10 crore strong army of rag-tag momeens WILL descend on Hindus in next 25 years. roughly same number from within and same number from east (BD). 30 crore abduls WILL descend on Hindus.

Not in one grand scale a la LOTR battle. But million mutinies here and there and long-drawn struggle of attrition.

RoI has to make a choice between two scenarios -

1. The 10 crore abduls from west have nukes and air-force and Navy

OR

2. The 10 crore abduls from west DO NOT have nukes, tanks, airforce and navy.

To ensure possibility 2 materializes, RoI have to do something about TSPA NOW (i.e. in next 10 years). after 2025-30, it will be too late.

Ensuring scenario 2 asap also removes the security cover that internal abduls in India have. Pak is their insurance as well. They believe nothing can happen to them as long as pak exists with all its instruments of hard-power.
Last edited by Atri on 29 Jul 2015 18:35, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Jul 2015 18:33

10 crore strong army of rag-tag momeens WILL descend on Hindus in next 25 years.


If in 25 years, India does not have robotic armies defending its borders, then shame on India.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 18:36

A_Gupta wrote:^^^ Sorry, Harpalji, but the above is dhoti-shivering.

1. Had the railway track bomb gone off killing scores of people and/or the attack on the bus killed scores of people, might not the "true strategic response timescale of the Modi government" be different?

2. As long as the timescale of the response is some finite number, isn't the effectiveness of the response far more important than whether it is one day or twenty days?


Perhaps it is dhoti-shivering as you say - perhaps not.

The key thing IMO for all this "India-Pakistan standoffing" stuff is that it is a game of ladders.

You can "win" this game by climbing up the ladder before the other side. The Pakistanis so far have based their national defense ideas (which btw lacks any depth whatsoever financially or politically or legally or physically) on the ability to escalate faster than India. Whether it is in the conventional arena with their short supply lines east of the Indus or in the WMD arena with their Chinese missiles, Pakistan's only hope for defending against a vastly superior India is the ability to jump high up on the escalation ladder and deter India from hostile action. The Grandmasters of Suhrawardy Street in the days past have sacrificed many Pakistani and Indian lives to make this point - over and over again. This is the cornerstone of Pakistan's national defense.

With the arrival of Modiji in 7RCR and god-only-knows-who walking around the residence, the Pakistanis are within their rights to ask - has the Indian approach to escalations changed? has India decided that it wants to be the first up the ladder? After the Myanmar raid and the new Tweetia's comments, clearly the Pakistanis could be forgiven for thinking that this was indeed the case. At that point the only question would be - how fast will India climb up the ladder? and the only option for the Grandmaster would be to create a test provocation.

Now the real skill (again IMO) here is the ability to create an illusion of a much greater provocation while ensuring that no grounds for an escalation takes place.

There are many sub-questions - how long does Modiji take to penetrate the fog of war? how long does the actual decision take? etc.. etc... but there is the option for more provocations specifically tailored to the needs of the questions.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Jul 2015 18:37

India is a democracy, and Indians are voluble; but the benefits of (the state) being inscrutable should be considered. This requires a level of trust between the people and the government and a common understanding between the political parties that politics ends at the border.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Atri » 29 Jul 2015 18:38

A_Gupta wrote:
10 crore strong army of rag-tag momeens WILL descend on Hindus in next 25 years.


If in 25 years, India does not have robotic armies defending its borders, then shame on India.


I, personally, am not very comfortable with concept of drone-armies. I would oppose use of robotics in situations where choice of life and death is given to artificial intelligence.

But that is philosophical discussion for some other day and place.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Atri » 29 Jul 2015 18:40

Harpal Bector wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:^^^ Sorry, Harpalji, but the above is dhoti-shivering.

1. Had the railway track bomb gone off killing scores of people and/or the attack on the bus killed scores of people, might not the "true strategic response timescale of the Modi government" be different?

2. As long as the timescale of the response is some finite number, isn't the effectiveness of the response far more important than whether it is one day or twenty days?


Perhaps it is dhoti-shivering as you say - perhaps not.

The key thing IMO for all this "India-Pakistan standoffing" stuff is that it is a game of ladders.

You can "win" this game by climbing up the ladder before the other side. The Pakistanis so far have based their national defense ideas (which btw lacks any depth whatsoever financially or politically or legally or physically) on the ability to escalate faster than India. Whether it is in the conventional arena with their short supply lines east of the Indus or in the WMD arena with their Chinese missiles, Pakistan's only hope for defending against a vastly superior India is the ability to jump high up on the escalation ladder and deter India from hostile action. The Grandmasters of Suhrawardy Street in the days past have sacrificed many Pakistani and Indian lives to make this point - over and over again. This is the cornerstone of Pakistan's national defense.

With the arrival of Modiji in 7RCR and god-only-knows-who walking around the residence, the Pakistanis are within their rights to ask - has the Indian approach to escalations changed? has India decided that it wants to be the first up the ladder? After the Myanmar raid and the new Tweetia's comments, clearly the Pakistanis could be forgiven for thinking that this was indeed the case. At that point the only question would be - how fast will India climb up the ladder? and the only option for the Grandmaster would be to create a test provocation.

Now the real skill (again IMO) here is the ability to create an illusion of a much greater provocation while ensuring that no grounds for an escalation takes place.

There are many sub-questions - how long does Modiji take to penetrate the fog of war? how long does the actual decision take? etc.. etc... but there is the option for more provocations specifically tailored to the needs of the questions.


very well put.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby shiv » 29 Jul 2015 18:42

symontk wrote:If we are planning, plan for defending India against a razkar type force of 100M around the year 2040. Also not to forget that this force might have innumerable drones, most of them armed

100 million? Hmmm - that is a difficult number to sustain. Machine guns will do nicely. I get the feeling that this idea of using "robotic drones" is American hawa because if you think about it - Paki and ISIS jihadis are exactly the same as American robotic drones. They are autonomous. They are armed. Their loss is no big deal.

For a low tech population, simply producing more kids is all that is needed for your own robotic drones. That is what the Pakis are doing. And they are doing fine despite Reapers etc.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Jul 2015 18:45

^^^ Ah, Harpalji, what if the Indian intention is neither to win, nor (obviously) to lose, but to put it in the refrigerator? (with respect to Pakistan).

E.g., if NaMo's objective is to achieve a sustained 10% economic growth rate for the next 8 years, then anything distracting or detracting from that is a loss.

The Mahabharata metaphor is Bhima consuming all the provisions sent as tribute to Bakasura, and eating non-stop, while swatting away Bakasura as he attempted to interrupt. It was only after Bhima finished eating did he turn his full attention to Bakasura and finished him.

Yes, I know it is impossible for Indian opinion or even BRF opinion to tolerate such a thing. Our strategic imagination is very limited.
Last edited by A_Gupta on 29 Jul 2015 18:54, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Tuvaluan » 29 Jul 2015 18:47

Harpal Bector wrote:The key thing IMO for all this "India-Pakistan standoffing" stuff is that it is a game of ladders.


Isn't this just assigning more capability to pakistan than it actually has? Pakistan's ability to kill Indians is far lesser than perceived, going by actual numbers -- so it is clearly political drama as far as a pakistan is concerned. The costs of reacting to such actions by "climibing up the ladder" seems unnecessary if the real intent is to impose punitive costs on those who carry out such political drama at the expense of Indian lives. Overt escalatory responses help pakistan to carry out unhelpful "nukular flashpoint" nonsense, and aids them more than it solves anything for India. All this talk of war etc. is pretty ridiculous -- India has managed the situation with pak far better in the past year by managing the ingress of terrorists in large numbers during the summer months, and that seems the best India can do outside of proactively taking the war into pakistan, not necessarily overtly.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby shiv » 29 Jul 2015 18:53

The widely advertised Islamic way of war used by jihadis of all types is "not to fear death". These same jihadis mock Americans because they fear body bags. Americans for their part may or may not fear body bags but the certainly bypass body bags by using smart weapons and drones.

India is in between. Indian fighters too do not "fear death" but we still need to have the weapons to kill the other by reducing our losses. I think we need to keep the traditions and mode of functioning and ethos of various armies in mind when we talk about what sort of fight will take place.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Jul 2015 18:53

Atri wrote:I, personally, am not very comfortable with concept of drone-armies. I would oppose use of robotics in situations where choice of life and death is given to artificial intelligence.

But that is philosophical discussion for some other day and place.


An electrified fence is lethal and not even intelligent. The life and death choice is with he who tries to cross the fence. The problem is that it is not possible to have an unbreachable, unintelligent barrier. Today the intelligence is BSF personnel, and they work in shifts, and can tire, get bored, relax their vigilance, are limited in number and so on. The point is to augment it with technology to make the barrier much less penetrable. This robotic army is not going to go around actively shooting Pakistanis, if that is what is bothering you.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Atri » 29 Jul 2015 18:53

shiv wrote:
symontk wrote:If we are planning, plan for defending India against a razkar type force of 100M around the year 2040. Also not to forget that this force might have innumerable drones, most of them armed

100 million? Hmmm - that is a difficult number to sustain. Machine guns will do nicely. I get the feeling that this idea of using "robotic drones" is American hawa because if you think about it - Paki and ISIS jihadis are exactly the same as American robotic drones. They are autonomous. They are armed. Their loss is no big deal.

For a low tech population, simply producing more kids is all that is needed for your own robotic drones. That is what the Pakis are doing. And they are doing fine despite Reapers etc.


precisely..

From point of view of evolutionary biologist, population is reaching breaking point in subcontinent. India is sujalam suphalam enough to take care of 150 crore Hindus (vegetarian who mostly given a chance like to live in sync with nature). India cannot sustain 130 crore Hindus and 50 crore peacefuls (talking about greater india). Taliban has already screwed up the ecology of frontier due to excessive deforestation to fund their endeavours. The landmines et al has destroyed productivity of lands beyond sindhu. The most rabid effect of Islamic conquest on India was increase in severity of famines when total war destroyed the long-standing structures, habits, traditions and ideas that evolved in India to live amicably in stressed environments and years.

excessive canals have screwed up Sindh too. Only punjab remains (fed by three rivers). Indian three rivers are blocked and diverted inlands. In short, we have thoroughly destroyed Punjab (the original greater Punjab - land of 5 rivers and Sindhu).

Now in earlier days famines, epidemics and war would take care of such bulges. These factors no longer take care of population bulges any more. So naturally - as it happens in other organisms (like bacteria), this time the correction will be internal (i.e. humans doing the needful to "correct" the bulge). But as it is with bacteria, humans doing the needful with their means will ruin environment for much longer time (perhaps permanently in form of desertification punjab). All this puts tremendous pressure on abduls to west of sutlaj to start migrating east (a la after decline of Saraswati Sindhu culture).

Abduls in desh and bangladesh are going to cry for this migration to happen (it will facilitate their own dynamic of returning to mughal rule). All this is evolutionary population pressure. Bound to happen, unless people become dharmik NOW and be so for next 50-60 years. That looks very unlikely. Hence I agree with scenario put forth by Singha ji. I have said it here and on twitter and closed forums.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Picklu » 29 Jul 2015 19:14

Will the death of mullah omar by machinations of pigeon be the necessary jhapad?

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby gakakkad » 29 Jul 2015 19:14

we ll have to think of the way of debulking the population of Pakistan for our own good. Earth does not know any borders. 40 crore Paakees , in 2050 , will be a pain in our musharraf ...I am not sure if an electric fence would suffice...

if something can feasibly be done to ensure a lesser pakee load , it would be quite good...

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby SBajwa » 29 Jul 2015 19:20

by Shiv
The widely advertised Islamic way of war used by jihadis of all types is "not to fear death".


Make sure that all terrorists who want to get their 72 know that their bodies will not be buried but

1. Smeared with pig's blood
2. Doused with Petrol
3. Burned till nothing is left

that ensures that these terrorist Fidayeen will start fearing death!

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Atri » 29 Jul 2015 19:22

A_Gupta wrote:^^^ Ah, Harpalji, what if the Indian intention is neither to win, nor (obviously) to lose, but to put it in the refrigerator? (with respect to Pakistan).

E.g., if NaMo's objective is to achieve a sustained 10% economic growth rate for the next 8 years, then anything distracting or detracting from that is a loss.

The Mahabharata metaphor is Bhima consuming all the provisions sent as tribute to Bakasura, and eating non-stop, while swatting away Bakasura as he attempted to interrupt. It was only after Bhima finished eating did he turn his full attention to Bakasura and finished him.

Yes, I know it is impossible for Indian opinion or even BRF opinion to tolerate such a thing. Our strategic imagination is very limited.


But are we sure that Indians actually WANT 10% growth? objective of every politician is to get re-elected. At his core, Modi is cold-blooded politician (I like him for that - He is a true cold-blooded politician emerged in PIF ranks after long). 10% economic growth is one of the many parallel realities of India. at least, that is how I see it.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Aditya_V » 29 Jul 2015 19:26

Put impotency chemicals in Indus and tributaries like estrogens etc. So that it is drinking water , crops etc.
Or hope for a massive disease die out due to conditions

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Tuvaluan » 29 Jul 2015 19:32

Economic growth is not an end in itself, except it allows India to create capabilities it would need to conduct any actions that would require India possess greater defense capabilities that it currently possesses, since the real threat is not the pakis or their non existent nukes, but other hostile neighbours that would not hesitate to capitalize on an India that is distracted or weakened by conflict. Armed Forces and its leaders would inform the civilian leadership of the internal weaknesses that would have to be rectified, hopefully.

The jihadi cockroach who heads Jamaat-Ud-Dawaa made a speech today about "revivial of Khalisthan freedom fighters" after the recent attack -- the paki cretins just executed another "tactically brilliant" terrorist attack on India to make their claim that Punjabi terrorism is back after all these decades. The pakis are responding to India's claims about open options with this attack.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby symontk » 29 Jul 2015 19:33

shiv wrote:
symontk wrote:If we are planning, plan for defending India against a razkar type force of 100M around the year 2040. Also not to forget that this force might have innumerable drones, most of them armed

100 million? Hmmm - that is a difficult number to sustain. Machine guns will do nicely. I get the feeling that this idea of using "robotic drones" is American hawa because if you think about it - Paki and ISIS jihadis are exactly the same as American robotic drones. They are autonomous. They are armed. Their loss is no big deal.

For a low tech population, simply producing more kids is all that is needed for your own robotic drones. That is what the Pakis are doing. And they are doing fine despite Reapers etc.


There was a topic on BR in the past for the same discussion, I don't remember the name of the thread. Machine guns might do, but they would have figured out what needs to be done for that, wont they?

With defenders, labour and stress will sap the energy. What we need is variety of weaponry to handle multiple situations which no one would have even envisaged. So we would also need machines at our end

Drones can be manufactured quickly rather than a human development process which will take 15-20 years. And pakis arent low tech, they would get help from variety of sources even in future

When I mentioned drones, I didn't just think about the flying one, it could be land based ones too, could be under water ones too. Even in this situation, have anyone figured out how they crossed Ravi, may be there was an underwater vehicle which can cross strong currents?

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby shiv » 29 Jul 2015 19:51

symontk wrote:
There was a topic on BR in the past for the same discussion, I don't remember the name of the thread. Machine guns might do, but they would have figured out what needs to be done for that, wont they?

With defenders, labour and stress will sap the energy. What we need is variety of weaponry to handle multiple situations which no one would have even envisaged. So we would also need machines at our end

Drones can be manufactured quickly rather than a human development process which will take 15-20 years. And pakis arent low tech, they would get help from variety of sources even in future

When I mentioned drones, I didn't just think about the flying one, it could be land based ones too, could be under water ones too. Even in this situation, have anyone figured out how they crossed Ravi, may be there was an underwater vehicle which can cross strong currents?

Anything is possible given American money and American ideas. But plenty can be done without that also. Pakistanis already have human drones and are already getting past defences. How about preparing to fight the foe we face rather than one that is being conjured up with a bad dream?

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Jul 2015 20:22

Atri wrote:
But are we sure that Indians actually WANT 10% growth? objective of every politician is to get re-elected. At his core, Modi is cold-blooded politician (I like him for that - He is a true cold-blooded politician emerged in PIF ranks after long). 10% economic growth is one of the many parallel realities of India. at least, that is how I see it.


I am sure. That was Modi's election manifesto, which he won with and has a mandate for.

PS: no more on this line. The point is that all this "strategic response time", etc., is highly context dependent, including on what PM Modi and his team consider to be most important. The Puppet Master on Suhrawardy Road or wherever can calibrate all he/she wants; but it is meaningful only if he/she knows PM Modi's strategic objectives. And here on this thread, we don't even know why Indians elected Modi to be PM?

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby ramana » 29 Jul 2015 20:29

Talk of drones etc is not germane here. Please stop and post elsewhere.
Thanks,
ramana

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby ramana » 29 Jul 2015 20:31

Now why will three terrorists have two GPS devices? Also was the module split up with two rascals without GPS absconding in the melee?

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby disha » 29 Jul 2015 20:33

Harpal Bector wrote:
Perhaps it is dhoti-shivering as you say - perhaps not.

The key thing IMO for all this "India-Pakistan standoffing" stuff is that it is a game of ladders.

You can "win" this game by climbing up the ladder before the other side. The Pakistanis so far have based their national defense ideas (which btw lacks any depth whatsoever financially or politically or legally or physically) on the ability to escalate faster than India. Whether it is in the conventional arena with their short supply lines east of the Indus or in the WMD arena with their Chinese missiles, Pakistan's only hope for defending against a vastly superior India is the ability to jump high up on the escalation ladder and deter India from hostile action. The Grandmasters of Suhrawardy Street in the days past have sacrificed many Pakistani and Indian lives to make this point - over and over again. This is the cornerstone of Pakistan's national defense.

With the arrival of Modiji in 7RCR and god-only-knows-who walking around the residence, the Pakistanis are within their rights to ask - has the Indian approach to escalations changed? has India decided that it wants to be the first up the ladder? After the Myanmar raid and the new Tweetia's comments, clearly the Pakistanis could be forgiven for thinking that this was indeed the case. At that point the only question would be - how fast will India climb up the ladder? and the only option for the Grandmaster would be to create a test provocation.

Now the real skill (again IMO) here is the ability to create an illusion of a much greater provocation while ensuring that no grounds for an escalation takes place.

There are many sub-questions - how long does Modiji take to penetrate the fog of war? how long does the actual decision take? etc.. etc... but there is the option for more provocations specifically tailored to the needs of the questions.


I am very concerned with the line of argument presented above. It does appear that Harpal'ji has insights into the GOI machinery and given his posts., I have to take back my words and agree with Shiv saar that the GOI all the way to the top is clueless on how to tackle the baki menace.

It is evident that the GOI including Modi Sarkar is searching for roots and missing the entire forest.

Here is the first line of thought that I completely disagree...

After the Myanmar raid and the new Tweetia's comments, clearly the Pakistanis could be forgiven for thinking that this was indeed the case. At that point the only question would be - how fast will India climb up the ladder?


Bakistan has no locus standi on what India does on its Burmese border. The analogy is straightforward., if America takes a hot pursuit on its Mexican border it does not affect any policy on its Canadian border or has no effect on Canadian' escalation process.

To give a room to Bakistan's escalation process based on India's response on its Burmese border is illogical if not outright criminal.

This takes the cake for its illogical line of thought - since it ignores history.

With the arrival of Modiji in 7RCR and god-only-knows-who walking around the residence, the Pakistanis are within their rights to ask - has the Indian approach to escalations changed? has India decided that it wants to be the first up the ladder?


Modi on his arrival at 7RCR did change the approach to escalations - he clearly extended an olive branch right at his swearing in and also pointed out that the in the din of gunfire, one cannot hear the talks. Further, bakis did test the escalation matrix - the old firing at border posts was immediately and locally responded and further escalation of talking to Hurryrats lead to cancellation of further talks.

I am very concerned that an attempt is being made to paint the bakis as rational and controlled persons while the Indians as irrational and reactionary. If Bakistan is really interested in talks, why do they have to provoke and climb up the escalation matrix (I am calling it a matrix rather than a singular ladder) every now and then? What has their climb up the escalation matrix resulted in? From PM level talks to NSA level talks!

Is that what bakistan wants? Diplomatically when Modi has equal level talks with Barrack or Xi or Putin., here we have our own rabid neighbour with shared culture and history reduced to NSA level talks after much cajoling and prodding and pressure from the 3.5 sponsors of Bakistan.

Isnt' this an immediate demonstration of the Indian approach to escalation?

I have to bring this in

Pakistan's only hope for defending against a vastly superior India is the ability to jump high up on the escalation ladder and deter India from hostile action.


So you do agree that the latest pig attack in Punjab was a jump up on the escalation ladder., akin to opening a new front in Punjab since there is limited avenue of escalation in J&K.

And you further argue that "Pakistan has to jump high and immediate on escalation ladder to deter India from hostile action". Have you ever wondered why India has to take a hostile action against bakistan? Why should it deter India from hostile action if it has to live and prosper in peace?

And that is exactly the point at BRF we argue that bakistan has no intention to live and prosper in peace. Its only intention is to destroy India and always be at war with India in all means possible.

Now coming to evidence of pigs attack in Punjab. You mention that unfortunately no terrorist was caught alive. Interesting piece of argument. Is it your assumption that at least one such terrorist should be caught alive so that India can prove beyond reasonable doubt that bakistan is sponsor of terrorist pig?

What happened in 26/11 when with significant costs and a very high price paid by Omble a pig was caught and lead straight to bakistan? Oh an opportunity wasted? By Shuja?

Since on 26/11., let me tell you one thing - even a 10 year old kid knows that if the perpetrator is called out for a meeting to be presented with incontrovertible proof., the perpetrator *will not* come. Thus proving its guilt. And if MMS gobermund could not game what a 10 yr old logically games - then it is not a question of missed opportunity but the naivety and the irrelevance of the MMS gobermund.

Now do you want a similar situation with the current attack. Here we caught your terrorist (our Ombles died, but here we caught them alive)... now it proves that you bakis are terrorist sponsors. Next what?

In any murder scene, the first is circumstantial evidence. The pigs had NVG. The pigs had millitary class GPS. The pigs had advanced arms and ammunition. The NVG was sourced from US. The GPS was switched on right inside the Indian border. The attack was 26/11 style. There were multiple teams. Is it your case that somehow the NVG from US wiggled its way through taliban into the hands of the drug mafia and they sourced advanced arms and ammunition - shouting allah-o-akbar to propagate more drugs? In a small town?

I understand that it will be difficult for you to stand up and say to the PM that here "we have got 100% proof that bakistan is behind the attack and there cannot be any deniability from bakistan"., and the point is that no such "100% proof (or 400% proof if you like)" exists when terrorist states like bakistan indulge in terrorism - their whole reason for existence is to terrorize.

Since the recent attack in Punjab quacked like bakis, walked like bakis, flew (or waddled around) like bakis - the terrorists are bakis. This is something you can confidently state to the PMO.

Given that bakistan is a terrorist state and will remain so and actually become even more rabid state with controlling powers being the Allah, Army and America (not necessarily in that order as well) - what should the Indian response be?

I would like to hear your thoughts on Indian response rather than see your effort in proving this attack emanated from bakistan or not. I do think that you have very important and precise insights to share on what Indian response can be or should be or must be.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Jul 2015 20:35

On the diplomatic side, I think one also has to set a baseline, to see what is happening.
E.g., consider 2 hypothetical 6 months periods, and we count the number of high level contacts that happened between two countries.

A. Pakistan- 1, Myanmar- 1, Bangladesh- 1
B. Pakistan- 1, Myanmar- 10, Bangladesh- 12

If A. was the pattern of diplomatic contacts, or B. was the pattern of diplomatic contacts, would you say that in both cases the India-Pakistan relationship is the same?

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby disha » 29 Jul 2015 20:36

ramana wrote:Now why will three terrorists have two GPS devices? Also was the module split up with two rascals without GPS absconding in the melee?


Why should each pig have GPS devices? Could it be that two teams had GPS devices each (totaling two overall) but by some happenstance, one team targeting bridge attack split up without the GPS and still successfully mined the bridge?

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 20:38

A_Gupta wrote:^^^ Ah, Harpalji, what if the Indian intention is neither to win, nor (obviously) to lose, but to put it in the refrigerator? (with respect to Pakistan).


If one party jumps up the escalation ladder, the response of the other party can be to impose a freeze-out where the opponent can neither climb up or climb down. The words "Saltoro Conflict" come to mind.

I don't know what Modiji thinks. It could be as you say.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 20:41

Tuvaluan wrote:Isn't this just assigning more capability to pakistan than it actually has?


The Pakistanis do not have an alternative to an offensive defense type thinking. If they are convinced that India can overpower them, their only hope for success lies in the dynamics I have described.

Yes it offers more capability than Pakistan can maintain. That is exactly the point of this way of doing things.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby habal » 29 Jul 2015 20:44

GoI is directly not invovlved with tit for tat neither do bulk of them understand nuances. The intel agencies do understand and respond in kind.

We know from long time that talking to politicians in pakistan is meaningless and USA only talks with TSPA. Then pray why is India not speaking directly to TSPA chief Raheel Sharif ? After all he is running all over the place, right off my fingers he's been to sri lanka, russia, china, usa, afghanistan. Basically all places except bangladesh and india. So why not conduct diplomacy with Raheel Sharif instead of Nawaz Sharif since only former can deliver. Talks with Musharraf guaranteed relative peace for almost a decade no.

Basically what it boils down to is that even we do not want Pakistan issue to settle, we are frying our own fish all along. Naive GoI or clever GoI time will tell.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Tuvaluan » 29 Jul 2015 20:51

habal wrote:Talks with Musharraf guaranteed relative peace for almost a decade no.


And the current GoI's response to pakis has shown that an understated but severe response to the pakis backed by political gonads results in just as much "peace" with pakis, and brings down infilitration of terrorists without any pretense of "Talking peace" with the pakis.

Maybe it is time to recollect that it was during this "decade of peace" under the worthless peon MMS that India saw 26/11, and other acts of wanton terrorism by the pakis. This current attack in Punjab is just the pakis widening their jihadi terrorist area of activity by pretending that the khalistani movement is back in fashion, when no such thing has happened or is likely to.

There is no such thing as "settling the issue" with an entity that wants nothing less than bringing India down to their level in their quest for parity with India --- walking down the path of "settling issues" means negotiating away India's interests by definition, and is a fool's errand.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby johneeG » 29 Jul 2015 21:09

Harpal Bector wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:^^^ Sorry, Harpalji, but the above is dhoti-shivering.

1. Had the railway track bomb gone off killing scores of people and/or the attack on the bus killed scores of people, might not the "true strategic response timescale of the Modi government" be different?

2. As long as the timescale of the response is some finite number, isn't the effectiveness of the response far more important than whether it is one day or twenty days?


Perhaps it is dhoti-shivering as you say - perhaps not.

The key thing IMO for all this "India-Pakistan standoffing" stuff is that it is a game of ladders.

You can "win" this game by climbing up the ladder before the other side. The Pakistanis so far have based their national defense ideas (which btw lacks any depth whatsoever financially or politically or legally or physically) on the ability to escalate faster than India. Whether it is in the conventional arena with their short supply lines east of the Indus or in the WMD arena with their Chinese missiles, Pakistan's only hope for defending against a vastly superior India is the ability to jump high up on the escalation ladder and deter India from hostile action. The Grandmasters of Suhrawardy Street in the days past have sacrificed many Pakistani and Indian lives to make this point - over and over again. This is the cornerstone of Pakistan's national defense.

With the arrival of Modiji in 7RCR and god-only-knows-who walking around the residence, the Pakistanis are within their rights to ask - has the Indian approach to escalations changed? has India decided that it wants to be the first up the ladder? After the Myanmar raid and the new Tweetia's comments, clearly the Pakistanis could be forgiven for thinking that this was indeed the case. At that point the only question would be - how fast will India climb up the ladder? and the only option for the Grandmaster would be to create a test provocation.

Now the real skill (again IMO) here is the ability to create an illusion of a much greater provocation while ensuring that no grounds for an escalation takes place.

There are many sub-questions - how long does Modiji take to penetrate the fog of war? how long does the actual decision take? etc.. etc... but there is the option for more provocations specifically tailored to the needs of the questions.


It seems to me that cornerstone of Pakistan's national defense is Indian stupidity. 4 wars and Lahore was not occupied even once by Bhaarath!!!! :eek:

I think Bhaarath has bad leaders and advisors. Bhaarath has able to survive due to sheer size. On the other hand, Pakistan has been able to punch above its weight. Lets give their leaders(military or political) their due. Pakistanis have been able to punch above their weight because of Indian apathy(or laziness or connivance) and pakistani bluffing.

Pakistanis bluff by projecting strength when they are infact very weak. They prepare for 4 week war localized war. And put all their resources in it. They have no plans of continuing the war beyond 4-6 week period. They have no plans of fighting anywhere in Pakjab. In Pakjab, they have a simple defensive strategy: canals to slow down the tanks. Pakistanis start their wars away from Pakjab in Kashmir or Rajasthan on the Bhaarath side.

Pakistan will immediately lose if
- war is taken to Pakjab particularly Lahore.
- war is fought for 2-3 months.

Given so many constraints, I think Pakistani leaders have to be commended that Pakistan has survived so long and fought 4 wars against much much bigger country like Bhaarath. And Bhaarath's leaders are either fools or fooling us(Bhaarathiyas). Either these leaders are incompetent or there malafide intent.

Just imagine a reverse scenario. If Pakistan had all the advantages that Bhaarath had:
- suppose Pakistan is more than 2 times bigger than Bhaarath,
- suppose all tier 1 cities of Bhaarath were under 100 km from Pakistan,
- suppose Pakistan had a bigger economy and military budget than Bhaarath,
- suppose Pakistan had the ability to project soft power all over the world,
- suppose Bhaarath's credibility was in tatters.

Then, Pakistan would have finished the job in less than 10 yrs. So, cornerstone of Pakistan's national security is Indian stupidity. This stupidity is explained away as morality or nuclear blackmail by Pakistan.

I don't see anyone but Bhaarath's leaders to blame for this scenario.

Bhaarath should have a simple strategy:
- By 2025, Pakistan should be broken up. All the non-Pakjab provinces want to secede. Pakjab does not want to secede because they rule Pakistan. The secessionist movements are going very strong. But, they need outside overt military support. At some point, Bhaarath will have to go into Pakjab occupy Lahore and other principle cities of Pakjab allowing other provinces of Pakistan to secede.
- By 2035, all the states in the region of Pakistan must become the client states of Bhaarath. Then, Bhaarat can use its soft power and hard power to ghar-wapas them. Its quite doable.

The war doctrine must be: occupy the principle cities of Pakjab and keep them for atleast 2 weeks. Most important and easiest target is Lahore.

But, Bhaarath cannot do that as long as Bhaarath remains dependent on imports. Bhaarath will have to develop local MIC. Mass produce weapon systems in huge numbers to overwhelm the enemy by sheer numbers. 10 yrs is needed for that. And it can be done in 10 yrs, if there is will on Govt side.

PS: All this, " how can we kill all pakistanis?" is not needed. It is unnecessary and counter-productive. It promotes the thought that unless all Pakistanis are killed Bhaarath cannot win. And it projects the image that Bhaarath wants to kill every Pakistani. Such thoughts are not needed. All Pakistanis are not enemies of Bhaarath. It is the state of Pakistan which is the enemy of Bhaarath. First, finish off the state of Pakistan. Once the state of Pakistan is finished, Pakistanis will be fine. If radicalism in Pakistani society is the problem, the society can be de-radicalized and ghar-wapased.


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