disha wrote:I am very concerned with the line of argument presented above. It does appear that Harpal'ji has insights into the GOI machinery and given his posts., I have to take back my words and agree with Shiv saar that the GOI all the way to the top is clueless on how to tackle the baki menace.
I have no insight into Modiji's thinking on this or any other issue. My knowledge is of the process as it once was. I don't know what Modiji does.
Bakistan has no locus standi on what India does on its Burmese border.
Then the tweetia should been punished for speaking out of turn. He wasn't ... and that is what likely created misunderstanding in Pakistan.
Modi on his arrival at 7RCR did change the approach to escalations - he clearly extended an olive branch right at his swearing in and also pointed out that the in the din of gunfire, one cannot hear the talks. Further, bakis did test the escalation matrix - the old firing at border posts was immediately and locally responded and further escalation of talking to Hurryrats lead to cancellation of further talks.
Like I said - they may need to carry out more than one provocation to determine response timescales. Firing at border posts is a way to examine how much the attitude towards border artillery duels has changed. This Gurdaspur thing will tell the Pakistanis how the attitudes towards attacks outside J&K has changed.
The basic point is that Pakistanis don't trust Modiji given what people say about him. There is too much Gabbar Singh type material that Modivadis have put out for anyone in Pakistan to be comfortable.
I am very concerned that an attempt is being made to paint the bakis as rational and controlled persons while the Indians as irrational and reactionary.
I like your idea of an escalation matrix as opposed to ladder.
I think the Pakistanis are more rational and controlled than people give them credit for. I don't know enough about the Modi government to say anything about its rationality or reactionary behavior.
If Bakistan is really interested in talks, why do they have to provoke and climb up the escalation matrixevery now and then? What has their climb up the escalation matrix resulted in? From PM level talks to NSA level talks!
A Grandmaster might position a piece to gain a sense of leverage. The leverage should work the same whether there is a negotiation or an actual fight.
So you do agree that the latest pig attack in Punjab was a jump up on the escalation ladder., akin to opening a new front in Punjab since there is limited avenue of escalation in J&K.
I don't think it is opening a new front - the base of support is not there in Punjab. This appears to be a test provocation.
Have you ever wondered why India has to take a hostile action against bakistan? Why should it deter India from hostile action if it has to live and prosper in peace?
No - as it does not seem particular relevant to the context of discussing Pakistani strategy. Pakistani sense of reality - however distant it may seem to others - is that India has hostile intentions towards Pakistan. That is enough of a base on which to examine Pakistani options.
And that is exactly the point at BRF we argue that bakistan has no intention to live and prosper in peace. Its only intention is to destroy India and always be at war with India in all means possible.
That assessment is likely correct for certain Pakistanis in positions of influence in their national security complex.
Now coming to evidence of pigs attack in Punjab. You mention that unfortunately no terrorist was caught alive. Interesting piece of argument. Is it your assumption that at least one such terrorist should be caught alive so that India can prove beyond reasonable doubt that bakistan is sponsor of terrorist pig?
Nope - only that I don't want to be the babu who presents conjectures to the PM without hard evidence to back them up. If you want to do that go ahead, I have my career in babugiri with my Sonata and its red light on top to think about. I really like the way that it makes the Delhi traffic part when I want to go somewhere.
Since on 26/11., let me tell you one thing - even a 10 year old kid knows that if the perpetrator is called out for a meeting to be presented with incontrovertible proof., the perpetrator *will not* come. Thus proving its guilt. And if MMS gobermund could not game what a 10 yr old logically games - then it is not a question of missed opportunity but the naivety and the irrelevance of the MMS gobermund.
So you think that Shuja's refusal to come was an actual admission of guilt? interesting I had never thought of it like that. That would make the MMS government's first strategic counter-move a success. I had earlier deemed it a failure - perhaps I am wrong in the way I read it.
In any murder scene, the first is circumstantial evidence.
Bhaisahab as I said - you want to go and present that to Modiji - you go ahead. I am going to sit here in my AC car outside 7RCR and then watch you come flying out with his boot mark on your behind. And if by some miracle he likes your Captain Obvious comments and says Sabash!! Well Done !! because of your super smarts and guts I will make you super duper Secretary-in-Chief-of-All-Chiefness, then I will come to the celebration party at your farmhouse in Mehrauli.
I would like to hear your thoughts on Indian response rather than see your effort in proving this attack emanated from bakistan or not. I do think that you have very important and precise insights to share on what Indian response can be or should be or must be.
That kind of thing is up to the PM and I hear he has people for that - I am sure they can tell him what the response options are. I don't think my ideas are as mature as those of experts in the field.