Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attack

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Tuvaluan
BRFite
Posts: 1816
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Tuvaluan » 29 Jul 2015 21:16

JohneeG wrote:All Pakistanis are not enemies of Bhaarath. It is the state of Pakistan which is the enemy of Bhaarath. First, finish off the state of Pakistan.


OT, but this kind of nonsense is silly. So what's this number of friendly pakis? 200? 2000? what? And India needs to consider this minority while deciding to take on a hostile majority that makes no secret about its views on India? What is this "State of Pakistan" that cannot enforce its authority over most of its own territory? Who is the leader of this so-called "state of pakistan"? So who exactly needs to be "finished off" here? Do we know who the target it first and who is in control, when ostensibly it is different groups of jihadi yahoos, some wearing uniforms and others not, none of them actually controlling anything other than a large begging bowl.

making random statements that cannot be statistically supported must be eschewed, even if it all sounds awesome and intellectual.

member_23370
BRFite
Posts: 1103
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby member_23370 » 29 Jul 2015 21:21

A good paki is a dead paki ], Always.

Harpal Bector
BRFite
Posts: 226
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 21:21

disha wrote:I am very concerned with the line of argument presented above. It does appear that Harpal'ji has insights into the GOI machinery and given his posts., I have to take back my words and agree with Shiv saar that the GOI all the way to the top is clueless on how to tackle the baki menace.


I have no insight into Modiji's thinking on this or any other issue. My knowledge is of the process as it once was. I don't know what Modiji does.

Bakistan has no locus standi on what India does on its Burmese border.


Then the tweetia should been punished for speaking out of turn. He wasn't ... and that is what likely created misunderstanding in Pakistan.

Modi on his arrival at 7RCR did change the approach to escalations - he clearly extended an olive branch right at his swearing in and also pointed out that the in the din of gunfire, one cannot hear the talks. Further, bakis did test the escalation matrix - the old firing at border posts was immediately and locally responded and further escalation of talking to Hurryrats lead to cancellation of further talks.


Like I said - they may need to carry out more than one provocation to determine response timescales. Firing at border posts is a way to examine how much the attitude towards border artillery duels has changed. This Gurdaspur thing will tell the Pakistanis how the attitudes towards attacks outside J&K has changed.

The basic point is that Pakistanis don't trust Modiji given what people say about him. There is too much Gabbar Singh type material that Modivadis have put out for anyone in Pakistan to be comfortable.

I am very concerned that an attempt is being made to paint the bakis as rational and controlled persons while the Indians as irrational and reactionary.


I like your idea of an escalation matrix as opposed to ladder.

I think the Pakistanis are more rational and controlled than people give them credit for. I don't know enough about the Modi government to say anything about its rationality or reactionary behavior.

If Bakistan is really interested in talks, why do they have to provoke and climb up the escalation matrixevery now and then? What has their climb up the escalation matrix resulted in? From PM level talks to NSA level talks!


A Grandmaster might position a piece to gain a sense of leverage. The leverage should work the same whether there is a negotiation or an actual fight.

So you do agree that the latest pig attack in Punjab was a jump up on the escalation ladder., akin to opening a new front in Punjab since there is limited avenue of escalation in J&K.


I don't think it is opening a new front - the base of support is not there in Punjab. This appears to be a test provocation.

Have you ever wondered why India has to take a hostile action against bakistan? Why should it deter India from hostile action if it has to live and prosper in peace?


No - as it does not seem particular relevant to the context of discussing Pakistani strategy. Pakistani sense of reality - however distant it may seem to others - is that India has hostile intentions towards Pakistan. That is enough of a base on which to examine Pakistani options.

And that is exactly the point at BRF we argue that bakistan has no intention to live and prosper in peace. Its only intention is to destroy India and always be at war with India in all means possible.


That assessment is likely correct for certain Pakistanis in positions of influence in their national security complex.

Now coming to evidence of pigs attack in Punjab. You mention that unfortunately no terrorist was caught alive. Interesting piece of argument. Is it your assumption that at least one such terrorist should be caught alive so that India can prove beyond reasonable doubt that bakistan is sponsor of terrorist pig?


Nope - only that I don't want to be the babu who presents conjectures to the PM without hard evidence to back them up. If you want to do that go ahead, I have my career in babugiri with my Sonata and its red light on top to think about. I really like the way that it makes the Delhi traffic part when I want to go somewhere.

Since on 26/11., let me tell you one thing - even a 10 year old kid knows that if the perpetrator is called out for a meeting to be presented with incontrovertible proof., the perpetrator *will not* come. Thus proving its guilt. And if MMS gobermund could not game what a 10 yr old logically games - then it is not a question of missed opportunity but the naivety and the irrelevance of the MMS gobermund.


So you think that Shuja's refusal to come was an actual admission of guilt? interesting I had never thought of it like that. That would make the MMS government's first strategic counter-move a success. I had earlier deemed it a failure - perhaps I am wrong in the way I read it.

In any murder scene, the first is circumstantial evidence.


Bhaisahab as I said - you want to go and present that to Modiji - you go ahead. I am going to sit here in my AC car outside 7RCR and then watch you come flying out with his boot mark on your behind. And if by some miracle he likes your Captain Obvious comments and says Sabash!! Well Done !! because of your super smarts and guts I will make you super duper Secretary-in-Chief-of-All-Chiefness, then I will come to the celebration party at your farmhouse in Mehrauli.

I would like to hear your thoughts on Indian response rather than see your effort in proving this attack emanated from bakistan or not. I do think that you have very important and precise insights to share on what Indian response can be or should be or must be.


That kind of thing is up to the PM and I hear he has people for that - I am sure they can tell him what the response options are. I don't think my ideas are as mature as those of experts in the field.
Last edited by Harpal Bector on 29 Jul 2015 22:06, edited 3 times in total.

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6886
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby habal » 29 Jul 2015 21:24

Bheeshma wrote:A good paki is a dead paki ], Always.


do you include balochis like sardar bugti and brahmdagh etc in this list ?

Rahul M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 17050
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 21:09
Location: Skies over BRFATA
Contact:

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Rahul M » 29 Jul 2015 21:29

Rahul M wrote:
Harpal Bector wrote:So far no material link to Pakistan.
you were saying ?
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... of-attack/

@Akshay Kapoor ji, plz check PM. (top right corner should say '1 new message')


Atri wrote:This is known fact and no pratyaksha pramaaNa to implicate Pak as per harpal ji.

Indian express news article wrote:The group, the sources said, turned on their GPS sets early on Monday, shortly after crossing into Indian territory.

.......

all I will say to that is :rotfl: :rotfl:

the perpetrators crossed over from pakistan into India but that does not prove a pakistan link.
this bit of 'argument' is good enough to exemplify lahori logic I think. :P

member_23370
BRFite
Posts: 1103
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby member_23370 » 29 Jul 2015 21:29

They don't consider themselves pakis.

rohankumaon
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 63
Joined: 11 Mar 2010 14:34

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby rohankumaon » 29 Jul 2015 21:49

Bhaarath should have a simple strategy:


Thanks a lot JohneeG! Finally, somebody said it..

It is incredible that we are still playing bakistan game and giving it every benefit of doubt...the strategy should be simple...the cost of these kind of misadventure should be prohibitively high as said by Shri. Doval....I hope NaMo would listen to him rather than the ones who have never been in the field to realize what we are exactly dealing with..

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11639
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Jul 2015 21:51

Harpal Bector wrote:I think the Pakistanis are more rational and controlled than people give them credit for. I don't know enough about the Modi government to say anything about its rationality or reactionary behavior.


"the Pakistanis" == Nawaz Sharif & Raheel Sharif and their regimes? or Pakistanis in general?
Corresponding to "the Pakistanis" there are "the Indians".
Are Indians in general rational and controlled, but Modi Sarkar might be a departure from that pattern?

Not at all clear what you're saying.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11639
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Jul 2015 21:53

johneeG wrote:It seems to me that cornerstone of Pakistan's national defense is Indian stupidity. 4 wars and Lahore was not occupied even once by Bhaarath!!!! :eek:


1965:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lahore_Front

Harpal Bector
BRFite
Posts: 226
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 21:57

Rahul M wrote:the perpetrators crossed over from pakistan into India but that does not prove a pakistan link.


Is there any proof that the attackers are from Pakistan?

The GPS data is inadequate to prove that at this point. During 26/11 the GPS waypoints could be traced to Pakistan. That is not the case in the Gurdaspur attack.

johneeG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3473
Joined: 01 Jun 2009 12:47

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby johneeG » 29 Jul 2015 21:58

Tuvaluan wrote:
JohneeG wrote:All Pakistanis are not enemies of Bhaarath. It is the state of Pakistan which is the enemy of Bhaarath. First, finish off the state of Pakistan.


OT, but this kind of nonsense is silly. So what's this number of friendly pakis? 200? 2000? what? And India needs to consider this minority while deciding to take on a hostile majority that makes no secret about its views on India? What is this "State of Pakistan" that cannot enforce its authority over most of its own territory? Who is the leader of this so-called "state of pakistan"? So who exactly needs to be "finished off" here? Do we know who the target it first and who is in control, when ostensibly it is different groups of jihadi yahoos, some wearing uniforms and others not, none of them actually controlling anything other than a large begging bowl.

making random statements that cannot be statistically supported must be eschewed, even if it all sounds awesome and intellectual.


It is the state of Pakistan which is the enemy. Whether people of Pakistan are friendly or not, is irrelevant. People of Pakistan(like people of any state) simply follow the narrative of the state. If you defeat the state and change the narrative, then the people will change automatically.

When I say that people of Pakistan are not enemies of Bhaarath, I mean to say that its not necessary to kill all Pakistanis for the safety of Bhaarath. When I say that the state of Pakistan is the enemy of Bhaarath. I mean to say that the state of Pakistan is a threat to the security of Bhaarath.

If you define all Pakistanis as your enemies who have to be killed, then you have already lost half the battle if not whole battle. There seem to be about 150 -200 million people residing in so-called Pakistan. Is it possible to kill 150 million? Has Bhaarath ever said that it wants to kill all the Pakistanis?

Why this unnecessary nonsense of wanting to kill every Pakistani? It gives bad name. It can't be done practically. Its just a useless fantasy.

A much simpler thing is to conquer the Pakistani state. Divide it into smaller regions and make them client states. If the religious extremism in the society is the problem, then it can be moderated. If certain religion/creed is a problem, then there is always a chance to convert people. Lets not forget that those regions were part of Bhaarath just a few decades ago. And they have been part of Bhaarath for centuries if not millennia. Most of these regions and people were not in favor of partition. Some of them even opposed the partition of Bhaarath. Bhaarath can easily assimilate them and ghar-wapas them.

----
Vijayanagara Empire was started with a re-conversion. Re-conversions can be done. BTW, Pakjabis don't like Punjabis and Sikhism because Sikhism proved that re-conversions can be done. Sikhism is the reconquista of Hindhuism.

Bhaarath is capable of hard re-conversion and soft re-conversions. Then, why waste time on discussion useless fantasies of mass killing and project evil image?

Bheeshma wrote:A good paki is a dead paki ], Always.


I am talking of removing Pakistan itself. If there is no Pakistan, then there won't be pakistani.

A_Gupta wrote:
johneeG wrote:It seems to me that cornerstone of Pakistan's national defense is Indian stupidity. 4 wars and Lahore was not occupied even once by Bhaarath!!!! :eek:


1965:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lahore_Front


I know about it. I am talking of finishing of the job, not just attempting it. This is the 50th year of 1965. This is a good time to take Lahore and keep it for atleast 2 weeks. It should have been done in 1965 itself in the first place.

rohankumaon wrote:
Bhaarath should have a simple strategy:


Thanks a lot JohneeG! Finally, somebody said it..

It is incredible that we are still playing bakistan game and giving it every benefit of doubt...the strategy should be simple...the cost of these kind of misadventure should be prohibitively high as said by Shri. Doval....I hope NaMo would listen to him rather than the ones who have never been in the field to realize what we are exactly dealing with..

:)

Harpal Bector
BRFite
Posts: 226
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 22:00

A_Gupta wrote:"the Pakistanis" == Nawaz Sharif & Raheel Sharif and their regimes?


I was referring to the ruling class and the military people in Pakistan.

I don't want to say anything about India and who is rational or reactionary. I don't know enough about the topic to speak of it.

Hope this clarifies.

Tuvaluan
BRFite
Posts: 1816
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Tuvaluan » 29 Jul 2015 22:12

moved to paki thread. OT here.
Last edited by Tuvaluan on 29 Jul 2015 22:21, edited 3 times in total.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8100
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby nachiket » 29 Jul 2015 22:12

Harpal Bector wrote:
Rahul M wrote:the perpetrators crossed over from pakistan into India but that does not prove a pakistan link.


Is there any proof that the attackers are from Pakistan?

The GPS data is inadequate to prove that at this point. During 26/11 the GPS waypoints could be traced to Pakistan. That is not the case in the Gurdaspur attack.

So the fact that the first waypoint on their GPS is right on the Indo-Pak border is not enough. All I can do is :roll:

In any case, after 26/11 the Paki media even found out the village in Pakistan where Kasab grew up. Nobody including the pakis denies that the attackers came from there. What difference did it make? If our response is going to be the same either way, what is the point of asking for more evidence?

Rahul M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 17050
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 21:09
Location: Skies over BRFATA
Contact:

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Rahul M » 29 Jul 2015 22:15

Harpal Bector wrote:
Rahul M wrote:the perpetrators crossed over from pakistan into India but that does not prove a pakistan link.


Is there any proof that the attackers are from Pakistan?

The GPS data is inadequate to prove that at this point. During 26/11 the GPS waypoints could be traced to Pakistan. That is not the case in the Gurdaspur attack.

how come similar GPS data (if we go by the media reports) prove pak involvement in one case but does not in the other ?

unless you are privy to some info the rest of us mere mortals are not ? :wink:
if so, please do tell.

SBajwa
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5396
Joined: 10 Jan 2006 21:35
Location: Attari

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby SBajwa » 29 Jul 2015 22:17

by JohneeG
This is a good time to take Lahore and keep it for atleast 2 weeks. It should have been done in 1965 itself in the first place.


I have been advocating to capture major Bakistani cities since the kargil war. In 1965 Lahore's population was less than 1 million now in 2015 it is 8 million.

I think the reason for not taking Lahore in 1965 was the logistics to control population and due to USSR/USA etc coming into play.

In 2015 Russia, China and USA will again try to stop the hostilities within 2 weeks so the war has to be lightning fast and effective. Occupying a major city of 8 million people needs lot of resources. In past what has happened

1. Siege the city and hold all counterattacks by the Baki RATS.
2. Wait.
3. Eventually the citizens (who have not left) of the city will come talk and surrender (settling terms of food, water, sewage, etc).
4. Then Baki Rats would risk nuking Lahore.

Rahul M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 17050
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 21:09
Location: Skies over BRFATA
Contact:

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Rahul M » 29 Jul 2015 22:19

guys, please dont discuss grand strategy (capture lahore etc) here. there are other places for that.

this is NOT a free for all thread.

Harpal Bector
BRFite
Posts: 226
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 22:22

Lets play it the way any rational person from Ulanbator would play it.

I want to know the following:

1) Who were these terrorists? What were their names?
2) Who were their mothers and fathers?
3) Are their mothers and fathers Pakistani?
4) Who told these boys to do what they did?
5) Does this person live in Pakistan?

as correctly as possible.

If you can tell me this with real evidence to back it up, I will personally run to 7RCR and tell the PM myself.

Until then I am more impressed by the latest batch of pudina parathas at Bukhara than I am by your theories what happened.

I will listen to you but I must tell you these are really good parathas.

@ Rahul M & Nachiket

I feel it is a case of improper reporting in the media. The police are simply saying that the GPS was turned on inside India near the international border. This is being interpreted by some reporters as being on-the-border and others as being proximate-to-the-border. One might argue which interpretation makes more sense, but absent a waypoint in Pakistan, the device data cannot be used to claim that they came from Pakistan. It may be a plausible conjecture but it is not actual proof.

During 26/11 the international media was able to verify Qasab's village and when they went to meet his parents they were met by a wall of ISI people. Finally on behalf of his family, Ajmal's father spoke to the Dawn. This created a direct verification of his Pakistani origins. That facility is not available in the Gurdaspur attack.

saip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3928
Joined: 17 Jan 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby saip » 29 Jul 2015 22:29

One question. If they are locals why do they even need GPSs? They could have spent days in the town casing their targets. They would have had local support and would have not needed even to hijack a car.

SBajwa
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5396
Joined: 10 Jan 2006 21:35
Location: Attari

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby SBajwa » 29 Jul 2015 22:30

by Harpal Bector
1) Who were these terrorists? What were their names?
2) Who were their mothers and fathers?
3) Are their mothers and fathers Pakistani?
4) Who told these boys to do what they did?
5) Does this person live in Pakistan?


Are we digitizing and collecting

1. DNA of the deceased/arrested/traded off/etc terrorists.
2. Finger prints and blood type of the terrorists.
3. Other marks on the body
4. Autopsy report.
5. Pictures and other features.
6. Voice samples, etc.

Unless we have a database of these for posterity how can we come to any conclusion? Bakis will always deny! Scientific evidence is a must !

Tuvaluan
BRFite
Posts: 1816
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Tuvaluan » 29 Jul 2015 22:36

Pakis are also learning from past mistakes and on how to keep their attacks deniable, as is evident from how they only switched on the GPS after they crossed the border. So it is very likely they were from pakistan, though acquiring proof of that is a different matter -- does not mean the PM is going to ask for legal proof that these terrorists were from pakistan before taking action, if that is what is being implied here. All that is required is sufficient intel and evidence that probably won't be revealed even if it exists, for the PM and govt. to respond using whatever means necessary.

No need to pretend that such evidence will be publicly available to civilians or that the Indian govt. will sit with its thumb up various orifices before it is convinced these terrorists were from Pakistan.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby UlanBatori » 29 Jul 2015 22:44

yvijay wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:So unanswered questions:
1. 5 Pakis shown chummy. Only 3 bodies. 2 unaccounted.

UlanBatori ji, That photo showing jihadi's posing in army fatigues is unrelated to the Gurdaspur attack. They were probably newly trained Kashmiri terrorists. The photo went viral few days back.


No, there was an EARLY report of 5 terrorists SEEN. In these sorts of events, one should always read the FIRST or 1st two reports carefully. After that all sorts of bias and distortion set in.

Also, was the amount of guns and ammo and bums consistent with 3 sh1ts or 5?

sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4535
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby sanjaykumar » 29 Jul 2015 22:46

I am only sharing what I understood from some matters that passed before my eyes. I cannot comment on others. I have a sense of how the chain works and why it works the way it does. I have never found it worth my while to ask questions like "why does the chain work this way only?" or "why doesn't it work differently" etc... I leave that to others.

Ultimately everyone sits in an armchair and has to rationalize the information presented to them. The most common technique is separate things into conjecture and hard facts.

Conjecture is entertained in the heat of the situation, but beyond a point one cannot sustain interest in it.


As it stands if the conjectures of Pakistanis sponsorship are true then the Grandmaster of Suhrawardy Street has pulled off two straight wins. He has gotten most of the Panjshiris booted from the Aminat and this Gurdaspur attack is permitting the exploration of the true strategic response timescales of the Modi government. Even if Modiji launches an airstrike on LeT HQ and kills dozens of Jihadis - there is no real problem - there are plenty more where they came from. The Grandmaster's objectives will have been achieved - a timescale will be available with which to calibrate Pakistani national security options.




I do hope the GOI works at a higher processing level than this. If this event is a test of the escalatory ladder, they cannot know that the response won't be murdering their offspring enrolled in western universities or an Indian experiment to determine if Indian radiation will grow back lost foreskins in West Panjab, or as suggested above, a sack of Lahore..


Game theory posits what is in the player's best interest? How does Pakistan benefit from this? How does a timescale further Pakistan's options? A little more meat and less gravy please.
Last edited by sanjaykumar on 29 Jul 2015 22:52, edited 1 time in total.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby UlanBatori » 29 Jul 2015 22:50

A_Gupta wrote:
Atri wrote:I, personally, am not very comfortable with concept of drone-armies. I would oppose use of robotics in situations where choice of life and death is given to artificial intelligence.
But that is philosophical discussion for some other day and place.


I don't think Chenghis Khan or the Pak Army would worry about that. To defend against any Paki or Chini attack, IMO, you need massive numbers of drones. Drones send back video - the shoot decision can be manual, unless they are going against a large advancing force.

Then again, they may well use human shields as they advance, from the civilian population. So will you use artillery against them? Or just put down weapons and surrender? Order your soldiers to fire at captive children? You have no choice. Drones would not suffer such emotions. Hopefully a drone attack will make the Pakis run, leaving most of the captured civilians alive behind them. Or, going by 1965 and 1971, they will put their hands in the air immediately when they realize they are surrounded.

Look at present ISIS tactics against Iraqi Army. There is a good reason why the city defenses collapsed. All of those will be adopted by the Pakis. And Cheens will take them 2 levels worse in sophistication.

Harpal Bector
BRFite
Posts: 226
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 23:31

sanjaykumar wrote: Game theory posits what is in the player's best interest? How does Pakistan benefit from this? How does a timescale further Pakistan's options? A little more meat and less gravy please.


It benefits Pakistan because it informs them about how much things have really changed in New Delhi. It clears the fog of PR put out by the Modivadis. If Modiji moves faster than the Pakistanis are used to the Delhiwallahs moving, then they know that Pakistan will have to increase the speed at which it does things. If Modiji doesn't move faster than expected in I'bad, then there is little reason to change.

The absence of direct evidence connecting to Pakistan is their escalation control.

Harpal Bector
BRFite
Posts: 226
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 23:34

SBajwa wrote:
Are we digitizing and collecting

1. DNA of the deceased/arrested/traded off/etc terrorists.
2. Finger prints and blood type of the terrorists.
3. Other marks on the body
4. Autopsy report.
5. Pictures and other features.
6. Voice samples, etc.

Unless we have a database of these for posterity how can we come to any conclusion? Bakis will always deny! Scientific evidence is a must !


So short of hacking and downloading the entire NADRA database there is no way to attempt proving anything?

That is how good the Grandmaster's escalation control is. This is most likely a player of Zahir Abbas or Javed Miandad's skill level. Bahut uncha khiladi hain yeh...

Harpal Bector
BRFite
Posts: 226
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 23:38

The PM may or may not demand to see exact proof of attackers having come from Pakistan but it is best to have it in the file before you walk to the PMO with it.

After the Parliament attack in 2001 the only proof was the testimony of Afzal Guru. The government took decisions based on what it had.

Today - there is no such testimony yet - so how will the decision be made?
Last edited by Harpal Bector on 29 Jul 2015 23:40, edited 1 time in total.

sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4535
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby sanjaykumar » 29 Jul 2015 23:39

Mr Bector, how is the absence of direct evidence back to Pakistan their escalatory control?

Harpal Bector
BRFite
Posts: 226
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 29 Jul 2015 23:46

Simple without direct evidence - the very first step of the response cycle - the Observation portion of any OODA (Obs, Orientation, Decision, Action) cycle is broken. When the OODA loop is broken - then there is no response. That is as cast iron escalation control as it gets.

The best case that can be made before the PM is if Dishaji walks in and tells him "Sir, I have circumstantial evidence of Pakistani sponsorship". Dishaji is welcome to do that if he wants, but most likely the PM will plant one swift kick on his rear so I have asked my department people to put up a net on southern end of the Safdarjung runway - I am it will catch him.

You don't worry sir, I am waiting with my brand new official Sonata right there by the net.

Tuvaluan
BRFite
Posts: 1816
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Tuvaluan » 29 Jul 2015 23:58

Harpal Bector wrote: If Modiji moves faster than the Pakistanis are used to the Delhiwallahs moving, then they know that Pakistan will have to increase the speed at which it does things.


So the response time from time of terrorist attack to when the MEA lobs a heavy dossier on Islamabad will say a lot of things to these cunning strategists in Pakistan? Because past experience says, the usual response to all of this provocation is no overt response, so if the pakis are such awesome grandmasters as you proclaim, what is another non response going to teach them exactly?

The one lesson of 26/11 is that it is a huge waste of time and resources to expect pakis to do anything about the terrorist attacks they conduct on India, even if we hand them the name, address, and phone number of the terrorists and their operation planners. (not that we did not know that before, but apparently, the MEA is a little slow about learning such things).

If the response is covert, then again, that teaches the paki military strategists that India is willing to use covert option, assuming they figure such things out.

Your arguments make no sense considering that nothing can be learnt by an adversary if there is no change in response, making all the mumbo jumbo about escalation ladders and response time irrelevant.

What exactly can the "paki grandmasters" learn by committing such terrorist acts, if there is no fundamental change in India's strategy of dealing with Pakistan's terrorist provocation? Is this some attempt to pretend election speeches by the current PM were actually changes in pakistan policy? Else, where is the need to start proclaiming that the pakis are measuring response times etc?
Last edited by Tuvaluan on 30 Jul 2015 00:02, edited 2 times in total.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11639
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Jul 2015 23:58

I think there is a mix-up in this thread between "intelligence" and "evidence".

The simplest way "intelligence" need not be "evidence" is when the "intelligence" is obtained by illegal means. Another way is when you do not want to disclose how the information was obtained, you might not want it even publicly known that the information exists, because knowledge of existence itself might dangerous to a source or may reveal something (e.g., that you have cracked the adversary's encryption code).

GOI needs only "intelligence" in order to act appropriately. E.g., GOI may have "intelligence" about an impending attack, and then has to do something without waiting for any "evidence".

"Evidence" is good, it opens up the possibility of confrontation in international forums; however, the Indian track record of influencing any nation or multilateral group to act on the "evidence" is very low. Has "evidence" provided by India resulted, e.g., in anyone being declared a terrorist per UN Security Council 1267 or whatever? Has "evidence" provided by India about Pakistan succeeded to override the Chinese veto?

So, scr*w the "evidence". The question which we have, and which we won't get an answer to, unless and until someone leaks it (I hope not) or GOI chooses to reveal it, is what "intelligence" does the government have?

Note that "intelligence" could come from quite far from the scene of attack at Gurdaspur.

The only thing the "evidence" or "lack of evidence" calibrates is India's public stance. India cannot make a strong accusation in public without "evidence". It can make an accusation with just unnamed "intelligence", but that is weaker. Anyway, the world shrugs when India presents "evidence", so scr*w that avenue anyway. "Intelligence" can be shared in private with friendly countries to justify India's actions and to gain diplomatic support.

If India does not have any security holes, ideally, Pakistan has no clue as to what "intelligence" is in the possession of GOI, and cannot calibrate anything much.

Tuvaluan
BRFite
Posts: 1816
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Tuvaluan » 29 Jul 2015 23:59

A_Gupta wrote:GOI needs only "intelligence" in order to act appropriately. E.g., GOI may have "intelligence" about an impending attack, and then has to do something without waiting for any "evidence".


In a nutshell.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11639
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 30 Jul 2015 00:12

Here is a pre-Iraq-War RAND org. write-up on the difference between intelligence and evidence.
http://www.rand.org/blog/2003/02/the-bi ... dence.html

Key excerpts:
In my own experience, intelligence is usually full of uncertainty. In the intelligence business, foolproof, airtight evidence -- the kind that changes minds and convinces the public -- is, as one of my first branch chiefs at the CIA used to tell me, as "rare as hens' teeth." That's why expecting intelligence to provide "proof" in the legal sense of the word is so dangerous.
...
Intelligence, on the other hand, rarely tries to prove anything; its main purpose is to inform officials and military commanders.
...
Intelligence analysts usually operate against the clock. There is a critical point in time where officials have to "go with what they've got," ambiguous or not.
...


Further, about "actionable intelligence":

Actionable intelligence these days refers to data so clear and so thorough that policymakers can, literally, base a decision to take action on it. Alas, by transmuting this term, we inadvertently moved the burden of making policy decisions from the shoulders of officials and politicians (where it belongs) to the shoulders of case officers and analysts (where it does not). The truth is, this was convenient for senior officials. If they did not have good enough intelligence, they could be excused for not taking action -- and the analysts would get the blame.
...
Instead of waiting for actionable intelligence, we need to start thinking about how to make policy based on "inferential intelligence" -- that is, by using analysis and logic.


But, in the end, intelligence shouldn't decide what we do. There may be no smoking gun. It's the nature of the intelligence business. Elected officials will have to perform the job they are paid to do: Judge. Decide. Lead.


So Harpalji's car is likely to remain vacant. The Intelligence people will tell the PM what evidence is there, what intelligence is there, what inferential intelligence is there. The PM will have to do what he was elected for, to use the ambiguous information and judge, decide, lead.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54822
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby ramana » 30 Jul 2015 00:15

Pak like to portray itself as a mad dog and now nuclear armed.

When dealing with a mad dog you either muzzle it so it can't bite or kill it.

You don't care how its brain works.



As they go deeper into shape shifting mode of 'mad dog' they are choosing the latter option.

shyamoo
BRFite
Posts: 483
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby shyamoo » 30 Jul 2015 00:16

Harpal Bector wrote:Simple without direct evidence - the very first step of the response cycle - the Observation portion of any OODA (Obs, Orientation, Decision, Action) cycle is broken. When the OODA loop is broken - then there is no response. That is as cast iron escalation control as it gets.

The best case that can be made before the PM is if Dishaji walks in and tells him "Sir, I have circumstantial evidence of Pakistani sponsorship". Dishaji is welcome to do that if he wants, but most likely the PM will plant one swift kick on his rear so I have asked my department people to put up a net on southern end of the Safdarjung runway - I am it will catch him.

You don't worry sir, I am waiting with my brand new official Sonata right there by the net.

So, this brings us back to what Dovalji had talked about: Defensive, Offensive Defense and Offense policies/options.

We used to have the Defensive policy.

Now, I assume, we have the Offensive Defense policy. If we are currently using this option, based on the above scenario where we have no concrete proof, what will Dovalji recommend to NaMo? And what kind of decision would NaMo take ( We know what MMS would do )? I'm sure Dovalji's word would carry some weight.

Paki's have always made certain assumptions when they plan on doing their mischief. They factor in the standard thinking/responses of India. But, as we have seen, India doesn't always follow it's own sop. When we do that, Paki's usually run out of options and are left with egg on their collective faces. Kargil is a recent example.

So, if the paki grandmaster's plan is based around the fact that we will follow the sop here and not escalate without proof. What if we do? Would the paki gm consider the fact that NaMo will have to respond because, as it was so eloquently mentioned:
There is too much Gabbar Singh type material that Modivadis have put out


Besides, we always have the 3rd option: Offense
What would the pakis do if we went on the offensive? What would the paki grandmaster do?

We do have options far more than what is being assumed.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54822
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby ramana » 30 Jul 2015 00:19

Bharat Karnad wrote an op-ed as to why one of the terrorists was not caught alive.

I think after MMS dossier drama people are looking at indicting terrorism as a crime.

Evidence/ proof/ court/vourt etc.

Terrorism from a nation is an act of war.

Even when Kasab was caught alive and DCH was arrested by US to shield him, nothing happened.

So time for collecting evidences is over.

Just kill the mad dogs.

DGP Saini got it right.

Sid
BRFite
Posts: 1653
Joined: 19 Mar 2006 13:26

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Sid » 30 Jul 2015 00:21

Harpal Bector wrote:Simple without direct evidence - the very first step of the response cycle - the Observation portion of any OODA (Obs, Orientation, Decision, Action) cycle is broken. When the OODA loop is broken - then there is no response. That is as cast iron escalation control as it gets.

The best case that can be made before the PM is if Dishaji walks in and tells him "Sir, I have circumstantial evidence of Pakistani sponsorship". Dishaji is welcome to do that if he wants, but most likely the PM will plant one swift kick on his rear so I have asked my department people to put up a net on southern end of the Safdarjung runway - I am it will catch him.

You don't worry sir, I am waiting with my brand new official Sonata right there by the net.


First of all these punks can be a violent non-state actors (NSA) or state sponsored. In either of the case it does not matter what you gather or try to put in front as evidence, nothing can be used to used to put people on trial.

Its because the people who you will submit all these evidence to are the one involved in this. What is the definition of substantial proof here?

1. Can any of our investigators go on the dark side and interview any suspects or talk to people of interest?
2. Do we have the authority to detain and interrogate suspects?
3. Will the dark side cooperate in investigation?

Since you can yourself provide answers to all above questions, there is no point in gathering and presenting evidence like any regular case. If there is even 60% or 70% probability based on intercepts or evidence at hand, that should be more then enough to act.

These are not normal human beings we are talking about.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54822
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby ramana » 30 Jul 2015 01:14

A_Gupta wrote:I think there is a mix-up in this thread between "intelligence" and "evidence".

The simplest way "intelligence" need not be "evidence" is when the "intelligence" is obtained by illegal means. Another way is when you do not want to disclose how the information was obtained, you might not want it even publicly known that the information exists, because knowledge of existence itself might dangerous to a source or may reveal something (e.g., that you have cracked the adversary's encryption code).

GOI needs only "intelligence" in order to act appropriately. E.g., GOI may have "intelligence" about an impending attack, and then has to do something without waiting for any "evidence".

"Evidence" is good, it opens up the possibility of confrontation in international forums; however, the Indian track record of influencing any nation or multilateral group to act on the "evidence" is very low. Has "evidence" provided by India resulted, e.g., in anyone being declared a terrorist per UN Security Council 1267 or whatever? Has "evidence" provided by India about Pakistan succeeded to override the Chinese veto?

So, scr*w the "evidence". The question which we have, and which we won't get an answer to, unless and until someone leaks it (I hope not) or GOI chooses to reveal it, is what "intelligence" does the government have?

Note that "intelligence" could come from quite far from the scene of attack at Gurdaspur.

The only thing the "evidence" or "lack of evidence" calibrates is India's public stance. India cannot make a strong accusation in public without "evidence". It can make an accusation with just unnamed "intelligence", but that is weaker. Anyway, the world shrugs when India presents "evidence", so scr*w that avenue anyway. "Intelligence" can be shared in private with friendly countries to justify India's actions and to gain diplomatic support.

If India does not have any security holes, ideally, Pakistan has no clue as to what "intelligence" is in the possession of GOI, and cannot calibrate anything much.



In dealing with nations what matters is intelligence and not evidence.
Evidence among nations is another version of shaming game little kids play.

TSP has moved beyond shaming.
Its mad dog that needs to be muzzled or killed. Its choice.
We don't need to know what a mad dog thinks or if it has a mind.

sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4535
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby sanjaykumar » 30 Jul 2015 01:20

Simple without direct evidence - the very first step of the response cycle - the Observation portion of any OODA (Obs, Orientation, Decision, Action) cycle is broken. When the OODA loop is broken - then there is no response. That is as cast iron escalation control as it gets.


Do you see the logical fallacy in your arguments? Pakistan, on the one hand is testing India, but India needs evidence that is absent by design and thus can't respond to Pakistan's testing. So what exactly is it that Pakistan hopes to test of India?

Harpal Bector
BRFite
Posts: 226
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Harpal Bector » 30 Jul 2015 01:59

sanjaykumar wrote:Do you see the logical fallacy in your arguments? Pakistan, on the one hand is testing India, but India needs evidence that is absent by design and thus can't respond to Pakistan's testing. So what exactly is it that Pakistan hopes to test of India?


There is no flaw - this situation has been designed in this way - by the Grandmaster of Suhrawardy Street. The only objective here is to evaluate how long the various pieces of the strategic response cycle take. Without clear evidence linking things to Pakistan, the likelihood of any hostile action towards Pakistan is low. The thought process that surrounds hostile action however will occur on its natural timescale.

I can't explain how this stuff works any better than what I have already said here. You may be better off reading the Smiley series of books by le Carre. That profiles a similar situation. It is a very common motif in Cold Wars between nations.

While India is going through its process, someone in Pakistan is keeping an eye on the clock. However long India takes to do whatever it does, that is the time that the Grandmaster is after.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 41 guests