Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attack

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby hnair » 31 Jul 2015 20:11

Trying to shame Pakis over a legally-solid link to a terror act is like showing a Vivid DVD cover to Sunny Leone. This sort of terror acts are their day-job and they are rather proud of that. They will merely put an autograph on the dossiers

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Sid » 31 Jul 2015 20:16

ramana wrote:Ok guys move on.
----
PP did a super job.

NSA Doval was in constant touch with DGP all the time till decision to end the siege was taken.

No passive oversight.

No listening to Carnatic Music katcheri while Mumbai was burning.


Good that all kinds of resources were rushed: Army, NSG etc.

------


+1, Like.

Its a nice summary of what actually happened, and after this post we can simply delete last 14 pages. Infiltration began only after 4th page.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby habal » 31 Jul 2015 20:17

Pakistanis are today aware more than ever that they are finished. None more so than the RAPE sitting in establishment division, Islamabad. Even CPEC if comes to fruition can not save Pakistan because all those who have dealt with Chinese in govt projects know that they seek atleast 6% return on investment in any economic investment. Apart from Gwadar port which they can build for strategic purposes, none of the other proposed investments will give them a 6% or even 4% rate of return on the investment keeping in mind the circular debt situation in pakistan. So everybody who matters in Pakistan intends to make as much as they can and in whichever way they can and flee the country. This mood is specially pervasive in ruling elite of Sindh and is majority sentiment in establishment division of bereaucracy in Islamabad. The army provides a break in this doomsdsay environment by an attack on India here or there and showing all intersted that they are trying to uphold 'founding principles' and also making an effort to cleanse corruption. They are attempting to hold the flag high but even they are now running low on morale as all militaries who extensively involve in civilian affairs. Zarb-e- azb won't finish without afghan help as most ttp have crossed border and karachi operation has been ongoing for past full year without a seeming conclusion.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby ldev » 31 Jul 2015 20:18

I would say that the ISI was sending multiple messages to India as well as the jihadi forces it controls:

1. A message to the Modi Government - Pakistan is not Myanmar....we will continue to execute cross border terror ops into India and you cannot respond the way you did in Myanmar.

2. The explosives on the rail track were an attempt to get back at India because of the Gujranwala rail bridge accident in early July which sections of the Pakistan army claim was an Indian op.

3. We will try and reignite the Khalistani movement in Punjab.

4. A message to its jihadi forces that nothing has changed vis a vis India notwithstanding the change in Government in India so do not lose heart.
Last edited by ldev on 31 Jul 2015 20:21, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Karan M » 31 Jul 2015 20:19

Current setup itself needs improvement.
26/11 NSG reach with 20 yr old gear and most eqpt in Manesar was broken. Took Sunil Sheoran from ParaSF to run a tight ship and get them ready before 26/11. Yet, lack of kit like ear-radios meant Sandeep Unnithan fought alone, wounded a terrorist purely thanks to raw skill and training, but we lost an instructor, best of the best. Transportation an issue, response time a huge challenge. Lack of proper NV gear, lack of TW Thermal Imagers and radars let alone robots, and IED defusing kit.
Seven years later, its yet to be seen how much gear we have & widespread availability.

GOI has all been too happy during UPA raj to use IA soldiers bravery to do crazy tasks and get killed/wounded in bargain.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby disha » 31 Jul 2015 20:21

habal wrote:We have a deadlock, should we take lives of 100000 pakjabis as retribution for terror attack who may have no love lost for hindus but do appreciate aspects of Indian culture such as Mohammad Rafi's music and Madan Mohan, Anand Bakshi, Lata, Asha, Kishore Kumar, RD etc which make some Indians nostalgic about pakis and reluctant to get even. Or do we bite a bitter karela and get on with the job. This seems to be the ultimate dilemma facing policy finalizers. We have spread the net far and wide into Pakistan and anytime now we may also have to bite the bullet karela and bring the matter to conclusion. As before Pakistan has serious internal divisionz which should be exploited to the hilt rather than waste time and resources by capturing terrorists alive. This can only cause international shaming of Pakistan but will not settle the issue in our favor since the finishing act still remains to be done.


There is no deadlock. Bakis are ruled by Allah, Army and America and they need to be freed from that shacklehold. The baki aam-abdul being poor, ignorant and on grass cannot do that themselves. Further we do not know if they want to be totally freed or not. Or maybe they have no choice.

It is not our case to "grant them freedom". Our case is India first. For that the shackle holds of Allah and Army on Bakistan has to be removed and America's influence needs to be capped, rolledback and eliminated.

This is a multi-generational project. We need to think through short term, medium term and long term projects for the above mentioned goals.

And yes, bleeding hearts need not apply for the above projects. There will be collateral damage, but again Mahabharata resulted in the elimination of almost all Kauravas.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby ramana » 31 Jul 2015 20:23

ldve, Why would they want to send those messages?
Any thinking person can deduce 2 is not valid.
1 & 3 could be to reassure themselves.


So what other messages?
4. Reassert control over the masses in the kabila?

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby vasu raya » 31 Jul 2015 20:29

Two GPS sets may mean two different teams and entry points making simultaneous attacks at different places. Not sure why one team was content with setting up bombs on the rail tracks. The fingerprints on these sets should match the ones with the dead. Any new one confirms a second team. we can assume the terrorist using the GPS as the squad leader somebody useful if caught alive or should be neutralized first.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby disha » 31 Jul 2015 20:34

ldev wrote:I would say that the ISI was sending multiple messages to India as well as the jihadi forces it controls:

1. A message to the Modi Government - Pakistan is not Myanmar....we will continue to execute cross border terror ops into India and you cannot respond the way you did in Myanmar.

2. The explosives on the rail track were an attempt to get back at India because of the Gujranwala rail bridge accident in early July which sections of the Pakistan army claim was an Indian op.

3. We will try and reignite the Khalistani movement in Punjab.

4. A message to its jihadi forces that nothing has changed vis a vis India notwithstanding the change in Government in India so do not lose heart.


^Excellent summarization.

Item #4 is as much as reassuring themselves about their capabilities.

Item #3 exposed ISI agents in rNDTV studio.

Item #2 identified the vulnerabilities for the surface transport minister to think about. I am sure there will be presentations going on in cabinet soon on how not to let such situations to chance.

Item #1., is back to bakis reassuring themselves that it is not myanmar.

So in the end., this was a failed op for bakis. It did not open any new front., exposed its assets and gave an indication on how besieged they feel. This can and will be exploited by India.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby johneeG » 31 Jul 2015 20:36

disha wrote: I read the statement by Hon' HM and that is good enough proof for me.


One of the previous Hon' HM had talked about 'saffron terror'... just saying. I disagree with your stand that 'my HM said so it must be true' because you seem to be saying that people should be blindly faithful towards their Govts.

Anyway, if a country has suffered terrorism for more than 20 years, then it means that many successive Hon' HMs have been failing in their job. If Pakistan state is the problem, then that Pakistan state should have been dealt with either softly or hardly by now. The fact it was not done in the past and Pakistani state continues to export terror means that successive govts have been failing in their job for more than 20 yrs. Given such failing of regimes, why would people want to blindly believe any regime? And each regime says that they are different from past regimes but they act in the same way.

All I am saying is advocating blind belief in govt is not good.

Karan M wrote:>>Using any electronic equipments will mean that it can be back-traced. If Pakistan wanted a cheap way to show routes, they could have simply used paper-maps. Cheap, affordable, non-back-traceable, ...etc. But, they used GPS. That means they wanted it to be back-traced.

People get confused when using maps. GPS with database is more idiot proof.


That would make sense if Gurdaspur was some high-profile target and only and only that target had to be hit. On the other hand, if the idea was to just cause general mayhem in some town or city, then a simple paper map would be more than enough. Further, supposedly plausible deniability is generally of higher value for most of the intel agencies unless the target is of extra-ordinary importance. In this case, the target seems to be just run-of-the-mill. So, use of GPS seems unwarranted.

There are two possibilities for using GPS:
a) Pakistanis don't care about plausible denaibility anymore. Even then paper-maps are cheaper.
b) Pakistanis wanted it to be back-traced. Why? Perhaps, deliberate provocation. Why? Maybe to test Modi.

----
If they simply wanted to kill people in Bhaarath, there are much better methods of doing mayhem at much larger scale. I don't want to outline them. But, definitely, sending terrorists across the border(which is highly monitored by armed forces) is a very useless method to kill people on a large scale. Most of the time, these people are simply going to die trying to cross the border. This is a pretty silly method if the idea is to kill Bhaarathiyas.

I think the idea is to tie down armed forces of Bhaarath by creating insurgency like situation.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 31 Jul 2015 20:39

There is no message. The objective is to draw in the army to guard the IB and to commit more forces away from peace time and training. The anti infiltration grid on the LOC was working well so they started targeting Jammu to tie up 9 Corps and 16 Corps. Now they are finding infiltration difficult there, they are trying to target Punjab. This is their standard aysymetric warfare strategy. Nothing new in this.

Let's not ascribe too much grandmaster strategy nonsense to this. And please let's not bring Khalistan into this. Terrorism in Punjab was defeated by Punjabis. Why ? Because Sikhs are elder brothers of Hindus and Punjab is one of the most patriotic States in India. Let's not give air to the Paki narrative.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Sid » 31 Jul 2015 20:43

Such attacks are also timed with certain high level visits, where either high level delegates are visiting India or Indians visiting foreign land. For example, NE attack during US Carter's visit. Critical US visits are timed with some large scale terror attacks to show India's vulnerability.

This attack seems timed for NSA level meeting.

One objective is show of force and dominance so that actors can talk and negotiate from a point of strength.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 31 Jul 2015 20:46

This is their (ISI) daal roti day job. Another factor is the hollowing out of PP and vulnerability of Punjab due to drug smuggling and drug addiction. Again a long known policy of ISI. Time for centre to sort this out.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Shreeman » 31 Jul 2015 21:07

hnair wrote:Trying to shame Pakis over a legally-solid link to a terror act is like showing a Vivid DVD cover to Sunny Leone. This sort of terror acts are their day-job and they are rather proud of that. They will merely put an autograph on the dossiers


I brotest pringing the "honest labors" of love into this depate. And where did you get the said cover? Thirty stribes!

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby ldev » 31 Jul 2015 21:09

ramana wrote:ldve, Why would they want to send those messages?
Any thinking person can deduce 2 is not valid.
1 & 3 could be to reassure themselves.


So what other messages?
4. Reassert control over the masses in the kabila?


Ramana,

I think Pakistan was offbalance with the Modi government policy of no contact for the last one year i.e. they were unsure of Modi's response. The decision to have NSA level talks with an eventual Modi-Sharif meeting in New York put them back into familiar territory, an Indian government which will continue talks i.e. dual track, talks and terror, on at the same time no matter the provocation. The fact that there was no major terror attack in the last one year indicates their control over the calibration of the attacks. And the timing of this attack now indicates that they are back on familiar ground and hence comfortable to send those multiple messages via this attack.

An important lesson is that even the US could not control cross border terror attacks into Afghanistan....Pakistan calibrated the attacks depending on its negotiating position with the US. Vis a vis India the situation is worse in terms of Pakistan's motivation, going back all the way to partition.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby ramana » 31 Jul 2015 21:14

Karan M wrote:Current setup itself needs improvement.
26/11 NSG reach with 20 yr old gear and most eqpt in Manesar was broken. Took Sunil Sheoran from ParaSF to run a tight ship and get them ready before 26/11. Yet, lack of kit like ear-radios meant Sandeep Unnithan fought alone, wounded a terrorist purely thanks to raw skill and training, but we lost an instructor, best of the best. Transportation an issue, response time a huge challenge. Lack of proper NV gear, lack of TW Thermal Imagers and radars let alone robots, and IED defusing kit.
Seven years later, its yet to be seen how much gear we have & widespread availability.

GOI has all been too happy during UPA raj to use IA soldiers bravery to do crazy tasks and get killed/wounded in bargain.



There was also a failure of evaluation of intelligence.
Despite the mounting rhetoric about terrorism revival, no one envisaged a terrorist attack in Punjab.

J&K was the mindview.

The best option is to have the SWAT teams on readiness alert all over India. Sort of rotating shift.
And keep a few helicopters ready at IAF and IA bases on standby.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby arun » 31 Jul 2015 21:14

X Posted from the “Pakistani Role In Global Terrorism” thread.

Today news that that the Pakistan National Assembly, equivalent to our Lok Sabha, has been informed by the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s Prime Minister’s senior aide Sartaj Aziz that the Islamic Republic of Pakistan could take up matter of involvement of Indian State Actors in the freedom struggle in the Islamic Republic:

Govt considering to raise issue of RAW's involvement in Pakistan with UN, Aziz tells NA

Today also news, albeit from an anonymous source, that our Government is working to absolve the “State Actors” in Mohammadden Terrorist fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan of involvement in the Gurdaspur Terrorist attack:

Pakistan Government Wasn't Aware of Gurdaspur Terror Plot: India's Stand

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Shreeman » 31 Jul 2015 21:17

Karan M wrote:
Shreeman wrote:Deniability is built into the price.

Al-nato bin western walid devises have device ids and material tags and shipping informashun and when it was looted and by which haqqani properly documented.

While it ij true that enuf material haj been stolen and stok-pilled to run the 14 day waar over the last 10 years, the GPS ij likelee to be hanji-bin-tall mountain manufakchuring ltd consumer device. Sofistikated matiriyal makes denial a wide, very wide river to bridge.


Its even better for LeT etc if a GPS is traced back to NATO. Trail gets even more muddled. See see, it was Al Taliban al ISIS from Afghanistan who did this etc etc. Most of what LeT uses is nowadin from local arms bazaars apparently.


Misphortunately, no. Pecause an item on a NaatO loading pill puts a NaatO stamb on the bresence of non-estate aktors in bakistan. No denying that, unless you want your coalishun subbort funds withheld. It may be a weshturn designed consumer device iph they went upmarket -- estill made in china, no? The chanses of it peing a military geepeeEss are zero. Unless this ij a northern flight infantry redux. Porder Akshun teams and what not. Regular apduls.

The trail only haj to cross undeniaply into bakistan one time, and all the raa ajints are exonerated. Thus, consumer devise. Deniaple. Shaved Apdul. Totally shia, or may be ahmedi. Raa ajint even. Route map? Any child prodijy microsoft setifiaple apdul can do that. Gun made in FATA? Exported as far as afrika. You see? No signature of bresident mamnoon hussain or whoever is signing the grant of 72 theje days. Good or pad sharif.

You know, I know. Some dead -- nudje nudje, wink wink? Hain? I yam signalling you for taalks onlee. Back channel? Not after a piryanee.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Karan M » 31 Jul 2015 21:22

Shreeman wrote:Misphortunately, no. Pecause an item on a NaatO loading pill puts a NaatO stamb on the bresence of non-estate aktors in bakistan. No denying that, unless you want your coalishun subbort funds withheld. It may be a weshturn designed consumer device iph they went upmarket -- estill made in china, no? The chanses of it peing a military geepeeEss are zero. Unless this ij a northern flight infantry redux. Porder Akshun teams and what not. Regular apduls.

The trail only haj to cross undeniaply into bakistan one time, and all the raa ajints are exonerated. Thus, consumer devise. Deniaple. Shaved Apdul. Totally shia, or may be ahmedi. Raa ajint even. Route map? Any child prodijy microsoft setifiaple apdul can do that. Gun made in FATA? Exported as far as afrika. You see? No signature of bresident mamnoon hussain or whoever is signing the grant of 72 theje days. Good or pad sharif.

You know, I know. Some dead -- nudje nudje, wink wink? Hain? I yam signalling you for taalks onlee. Back channel? Not after a piryanee.


All due respect, NATO wont do diddly squat if any GPS SHeePeeSS is found in India used by non state actors. They haven't got the gumption to do anything as their own top dawgs Unkil and United Queendom both give bakshish to Bak afsars for preventing attacks on their respective states.
What talk of withholding funds and what not. :lol:
In contrast PRC anger at Bak means a lot so PRC stuff may not be used unless fully scraped off markings etc on bandooks or electronics gear available online etc.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Karan M » 31 Jul 2015 21:25

ramana wrote:
Karan M wrote:Current setup itself needs improvement.
26/11 NSG reach with 20 yr old gear and most eqpt in Manesar was broken. Took Sunil Sheoran from ParaSF to run a tight ship and get them ready before 26/11. Yet, lack of kit like ear-radios meant Sandeep Unnithan fought alone, wounded a terrorist purely thanks to raw skill and training, but we lost an instructor, best of the best. Transportation an issue, response time a huge challenge. Lack of proper NV gear, lack of TW Thermal Imagers and radars let alone robots, and IED defusing kit.
Seven years later, its yet to be seen how much gear we have & widespread availability.

GOI has all been too happy during UPA raj to use IA soldiers bravery to do crazy tasks and get killed/wounded in bargain.



There was also a failure of evaluation of intelligence.
Despite the mounting rhetoric about terrorism revival, no one envisaged a terrorist attack in Punjab.

J&K was the mindview.

The best option is to have the SWAT teams on readiness alert all over India. Sort of rotating shift.
And keep a few helicopters ready at IAF and IA bases on standby.


Ramana sir, also to add to your point, basically everyday IB et al must be getting news of attacks all over India all the time. Our issue is lack of deep Humint in TSP land to follow through with 24/7 intel on key orgs and also dissuasion. That we have to rely on Chota Rajans etc to get to Dawood shows our weakness in past decade. All time wasted. IMO, it will take several years for efforts from AD etc to get some proper assets in TSPland for specific targets like Hafeez e pig. Till then, they retain the initiative unless we go "wild bull" and just fund all and sundry in Balochland & Karachi and just say whose father what goes.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby shiv » 31 Jul 2015 21:26

disha wrote:Barpal Hector has watched too many of Avenger movies. After retirement from babu-dom and with the loss of position and with it the concomitant honor and dignity - Barpal'ji has just realized that he (or she) is just an aam-abdul like one of us here.

Disha I put it to you that this posture (ie retired babudom) is itself fake. Giving this impression using innuendos was his first "victory" in the road to making everyone a jackass.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby sanjaykumar » 31 Jul 2015 21:27

Sbajwa, can you translate some of the Panjabi media commentary here?

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Karan M » 31 Jul 2015 21:27

Akshay Kapoor wrote:This is their (ISI) daal roti day job. Another factor is the hollowing out of PP and vulnerability of Punjab due to drug smuggling and drug addiction. Again a long known policy of ISI. Time for centre to sort this out.


Akshay saar, apart from covert ops do you think there are any other means of dissuasion?

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Shreeman » 31 Jul 2015 21:29

Karan,

NATO did diddly squat when northern flight infantry was upto its heroics. Before that it was worse. The CSF pun was a joke. Its not about doing.

But state deniability is mandatory. The only gist was that Bakistan can not claim a NATO device, duly tracked, is something Raa carelessly planted. This is a comical ali style distraction to all aktors.

China makes everything and sells anything nukular bums included to anyone and his unkle. As long as its not oouighaars, the chineje could care less if their military junk replaced FATA or russian / east european junk.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby arun » 31 Jul 2015 21:29

Karan M wrote:Current setup itself needs improvement.
26/11 NSG reach with 20 yr old gear and most eqpt in Manesar was broken. Took Sunil Sheoran from ParaSF to run a tight ship and get them ready before 26/11. Yet, lack of kit like ear-radios meant Sandeep Unnithan fought alone, wounded a terrorist purely thanks to raw skill and training, but we lost an instructor, best of the best.


Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan.

Sandeep Unnithan is a journalist.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Shreeman » 31 Jul 2015 21:33

Karan M wrote:
Akshay Kapoor wrote:This is their (ISI) daal roti day job. Another factor is the hollowing out of PP and vulnerability of Punjab due to drug smuggling and drug addiction. Again a long known policy of ISI. Time for centre to sort this out.


Akshay saar, apart from covert ops do you think there are any other means of dissuasion?


Yes,

Commerce in drugs, cross border trade, clothing exports. To name a few. No tomatoes or onions much less chikin.

All well placed levers. Turn off the people to people AND official talks (5 year mourning in MEA bakistan desk) and stop the opiates, the D company nonsense and so on.

See the results overnight. wont happen though. Babucracy will overrule even if PM types wanted it.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Karan M » 31 Jul 2015 21:41

arun wrote:
Karan M wrote:Current setup itself needs improvement.
26/11 NSG reach with 20 yr old gear and most eqpt in Manesar was broken. Took Sunil Sheoran from ParaSF to run a tight ship and get them ready before 26/11. Yet, lack of kit like ear-radios meant Sandeep Unnithan fought alone, wounded a terrorist purely thanks to raw skill and training, but we lost an instructor, best of the best.


Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan.

Sandeep Unnithan is a journalist.


Correct. I had Sandeep Unnithan running around in my thoughts as I was referencing his book on 26/11.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Karan M » 31 Jul 2015 21:42

Shreeman wrote:
Yes,

Commerce in drugs, cross border trade, clothing exports. To name a few. No tomatoes or onions much less chikin.

All well placed levers. Turn off the people to people AND official talks (5 year mourning in MEA bakistan desk) and stop the opiates, the D company nonsense and so on.

See the results overnight. wont happen though. Babucracy will overrule even if PM types wanted it.


All taht wont hurt the Corpse Commanders saar. They have enough "levers" on the ;Ghan drug and poppy trade to weather such pinpricks.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Karan M » 31 Jul 2015 21:44

Shreeman wrote:Karan,

NATO did diddly squat when northern flight infantry was upto its heroics. Before that it was worse. The CSF pun was a joke. Its not about doing.

But state deniability is mandatory. The only gist was that Bakistan can not claim a NATO device, duly tracked, is something Raa carelessly planted. This is a comical ali style distraction to all aktors.

China makes everything and sells anything nukular bums included to anyone and his unkle. As long as its not oouighaars, the chineje could care less if their military junk replaced FATA or russian / east european junk.


We found Stingers in India. Did Khan do anything? Nope.
We found Austrian grenades in Mumbai attacks, from factory machinery sold by Austria to Pak. Nothing happened.

All this deniability stuff is bunkum saar. Bak doesnt care what NATO thinks or doesn't think when NATOs mai-baap keep mollycoddling it.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby vasu raya » 31 Jul 2015 22:33

One can install GPS Jammers, not sure if it can be done at an area level all along the border unless using purpose built sats, nice way to test Agni's potential as an on-demand SLV

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Y. Kanan » 31 Jul 2015 22:52

Another day, another horrific terrorist attack, another thread of BR'ites clamoring for a "befitting reply". How many years (decades?) has this been going on, and people here still naively expect retribution?

We're not going to do a damned thing, because this country is too weak, too divided and frankly too cowardly. That's the real crime here; India's had nearly 70 years to get its act together and still can't manage to intimidate a country 1/6 our size.

Move on to the next terrorist atrocity and then start another thread for impotent outrage. I'm sure you won't have to wait for long...

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby ramana » 31 Jul 2015 23:29

First please no more benis language.
Thanks,
ramana


KaranM wrote:Ramana sir, also to add to your point, basically everyday IB et al must be getting news of attacks all over India all the time. Our issue is lack of deep Humint in TSP land to follow through with 24/7 intel on key orgs and also dissuasion. That we have to rely on Chota Rajans etc to get to Dawood shows our weakness in past decade. All time wasted. IMO, it will take several years for efforts from AD etc to get some proper assets in TSPland for specific targets like Hafeez e pig. Till then, they retain the initiative unless we go "wild bull" and just fund all and sundry in Balochland & Karachi and just say whose father what goes.



Yes there are distractions. However its like driving in fog. How do you do that? by concentrating on the road ahead.
Know the treat from TSP, need to keep an eye on them no matter what.


Just watch and see.

vasuraya, all those are defensive measures and rely on faulty technology and give false sense of security.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby disha » 31 Jul 2015 23:54

shiv wrote:
disha wrote:Barpal Hector has watched too many of Avenger movies. After retirement from babu-dom and with the loss of position and with it the concomitant honor and dignity - Barpal'ji has just realized that he (or she) is just an aam-abdul like one of us here.

Disha I put it to you that this posture (ie retired babudom) is itself fake. Giving this impression using innuendos was his first "victory" in the road to making everyone a jackass.


There are enough red flags on Barpal Hector's posts to indicate that the bachy (baki) has escaped containment ... the insertion of "honor and dignity" in the sentence above was to wave back a small red rag to make the bachy start dancing again.

Anyway, did not call out Barpal as a baki earlier - being circumspect and all that has its own price.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby disha » 01 Aug 2015 00:04

Y. Kanan wrote:Another day, another horrific terrorist attack, another thread of BR'ites clamoring for a "befitting reply". How many years (decades?) has this been going on, and people here still naively expect retribution?

We're not going to do a damned thing, because this country is too weak, too divided and frankly too cowardly. That's the real crime here; India's had nearly 70 years to get its act together and still can't manage to intimidate a country 1/6 our size.

Move on to the next terrorist atrocity and then start another thread for impotent outrage. I'm sure you won't have to wait for long...


Isn't the above a rant?

I do want you to think through on this quote of yours:

We're not going to do a damned thing, because this country is too weak, too divided and frankly too cowardly. That's the real crime here; India's had nearly 70 years to get its act together and still can't manage to intimidate a country 1/6 our size.


And answer why we did not do or could not do what you mentioned and what did we do differently?

Anyway, the baki threat is not a pure baki threat. To put it very tersely.,

Bakistan is India's Crimea - only worse, big and extremely dangerous.

So the question is how do we solve the baki problem from this point on, given what we already know. And more importantly, do know your enemy. Is your enemy the mad dog or its controller (in case of bakis - controllers) ?

For now, I would draw your attention to the "escalation matrix". For example, currently the BSF is free to escalate and respond in kind to any tactical brilliance from the baki side. In effect, that response has been made independent of any other response or initiative of GOI. For eg., NSA level talks will go on *while* BSF will be responding to the baki tactical brilliance on the ground. The two threads even though related are separated now.

What else can be managed on separate threads?

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 01 Aug 2015 01:17

^^^ We are a weak country/humanity, whatever, we haven't been able to end war, hunger, murder, rape....

I dislike this hai,hai. Just because you want something to happen it won't happen. A superpower couldn't defeat Vietnam or bully Cuba into submission. There is no magic wand that "India gets its act together and the Pakistan problem goes away".

Pakistan is like the Hepatitis-C virus or Ebola, for the first, we just got a cure and it is rather expensive; for the second we have no cure or prevention, but there is a promising new vaccine. Reality is tough, and there are some things you have to cope with, there is no way to banish the problem.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby vasu raya » 01 Aug 2015 01:23

one of the differential advantage we got is our own GPS, the IRNSS while Jamming can be done by anybody, they seem to be more reliant on it than us given their cross border terrorism. we should argue the case of GPS sets with US to atleast shut down the signal around the Indian periphery and upto 50km on both sides of it, though dealing with US is like the Cray machine import case, its only approved for sale when local Param comes up. Our leverage is only when we have Jammers even if faulty or hammer the Bakis on the border because of this terrorist act until Unkil takes note with TSP raising nuclear flashpoint

And then there are Beidou and Galileo, Jamming Beidou is in the interest of both India and US. Galileo I guess allows localization of the receivers so the users can be tracked if needed.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby member_28233 » 01 Aug 2015 03:27

I am sorry Harpalji, I find both of your statements logically tenuous.
Harpal Bector wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote: Game theory posits what is in the player's best interest? How does Pakistan benefit from this? How does a timescale further Pakistan's options? A little more meat and less gravy please.


It benefits Pakistan because it informs them about how much things have really changed in New Delhi. It clears the fog of PR put out by the Modivadis. If Modiji moves faster than the Pakistanis are used to the Delhiwallahs moving, then they know that Pakistan will have to increase the speed at which it does things. If Modiji doesn't move faster than expected in I'bad, then there is little reason to change.
How does this work? Suppose India had obliterated all Paki border posts, across the International Border in Jammu the next day, and 6+ weeks later obliterates a Jihadi camp, in POK, while a Pak military Colonel or above rank officer is present. Or, if India, 6+ weeks later obliterates a Jihadi camp, in POK, while a Pak military Colonel or above rank officer is present. In either case what is India's response time? Note: *When* either action received the PM's blessing is not knowable to the Pakis, unless they have a deep mole.

You are playing Pak's game and not one of your own choosing. Remember; "India will respond at a time, and in a manner of its choosing". Let the Pakis game that.

Another 26/11 level of incident would have to happen for them to get a good gage of India's response time. Do they really want to go there?

Harpal Bector wrote:The absence of direct evidence connecting to Pakistan is their escalation control.
Let's see: How did this help Iraq, who had no weapons of mass destruction. Or, what evidence did the US find to implicate OBL as the mastermind of 9/11, rather than the ISI? And if you say it was AlQ's claim of responsibility, well, suppose the NSCN(K) claims responsibility for this outrage, would anyone believe them?

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby CRamS » 01 Aug 2015 03:45

A_Gupta wrote:^^^ We are a weak country/humanity, whatever, we haven't been able to end war, hunger, murder, rape....

I dislike this hai,hai. Just because you want something to happen it won't happen. A superpower couldn't defeat Vietnam or bully Cuba into submission. There is no magic wand that "India gets its act together and the Pakistan problem goes away".



A_GuptaJi, I don't want to compare apples Vs oranges, but neither Vietnam or Cuba attacked US; it was US that attacked both, destroyed them to the extent it could, and US's "defeat" is only to the extent that those 2 countries "survived" and were not completely annihilated.

In contrast, India did not attack, rather, TSP continues to attack India. In a just world, TSP should have paid a price, but in our case, TSP has not only not paid a price, but it has extracted a huge cost from India in terms of lives lost, in terms of money spent in defending itself against this abomination, and most importantly, even after so many suffering so many cuts, India remains under threat; and to the extent that it matters, TSP has punctured the notion that India is barely a regional power if at all, and has resulted in a large swathe of self-loathing Stockholm-syndrome afflicted cowardly Indian elites who would rather take on "Hindu terror" instead of shaming TSP. And by far the biggest gain TSP has gotten is forcing India to talk when in fact it should have been reduced to a parking lot for its crimes against India.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby A_Gupta » 01 Aug 2015 03:58

Well, CRamS, India should have the Grand Unified Theory of physics, manned colonies on all the planets, the Presidency of the universe, and so on, if only they had gotten their act together.

Not that I want to compare Pakistan with any other of those problems, the point is that the world does pose hard problems that cannot be solved by force of will.

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Re: Many dead, including Police SP in Gurdaspur Terror attac

Postby Y I Patel » 01 Aug 2015 05:44

My theory is that this attack is the handiwork of some entity within Pakistan that does not want Pak Army diverted from the Indian border. Given the local knowledge displayed in planning out the routes for infiltration through identified and fleeting weak points, this has to be an entity with access to information available to the Pak Army, but at the same time with an agenda that is at cross purposes with that of the Pak Army. In other words, a darker green faction of the terrorist complex. I am NOT contending that this incident is the work of any Grandmaster, all I am saying is that it might not be the work of the all too familiar Randi of Rawalpindi.

I base this on the understanding that Pak Army is facing unprecedented demands on its western border, and needs some peace so badly on its eastern border that it is willing to go so far as (temporarily?) dropping the K word from its demands of India. It is desperate for some level of predictable stability on the eastern border because it needs all the men it can spare for Operation Zarb e Azb and related missions on the Durand Line. And opposed to it are darker green factions that want to erase the Durand line.

We do know from open sources, even before the news of Mullah Omar's death became public, that Op Zarb-e-Azb is quite unprecedented in the annals of Pak Army fighting. It started last June, and is expected to last till the onset of winter and the end of the current fighting season. Besides the time frame, the numbers are telling, and so are the stated intentions: in addition to the local Div, 30 k or so additional troops according to Wikipedia and readily accessible sources; even up to 60k or so total troops according to an Al Jazeera (or Beeb?) report I recollect. Finally, and very notably, this is stated to be a clear and hold operation, which means the troops will stay to keep denying Talib factions hitherto safe bases. This is on top of the older operation that cleared Swat valley and resulted in the now permanent stationing of a Div over there to maintain some semblance of control over that area. Pak Army sources are relatively candid about their aims, which are to really regain an area that was lost to Pak. This would be nowhere near the control Indian security forces have over Kashmir valley for example, but the point is that at least get the Pak flag flying over that area again.

So what is driving the new found purpose and sense of desperation? For me, that piece fell in place when I read about Mullah Omar's passing. Now that happened about a year before Zarb-e-Azb commenced, and Zarb-e-Azb was preceded by some major Taliban generated events such as the attack on Karachi airport. In retrospect, it seems to me that those were the first signs that Pak was seriously loosing control over the monster it had created. Mullah Omar's death is, in my opinion, the biggest strategic loss to Pak since 9/11. Their carefully nurtured strategy for regaining control over Afghanistan went up in smoke; Muslims have sucked at succession for the last 1500 years and any Islamist worth his salt could predict that the fate of the Taleban movement would be no different once its charismatic figurehead died or was assassinated without leaving an official successor. Given what we now know of the hidden context, Pak Army must have finally faced up to the need to push the terrorists into Afghanistan before the inevitable splintering gained momentum. Hence Z-e-A. Note that the massive uptick in Talib attacks in Afghanistan happened directly after Zarb-e-Azb, and that to me reinforces that the two phenomena are totally correlated.

Because of the intensity of operations it has had to undertake, do not underestimate the strains Pak Mil has been under, and the unprecedented challenges it is faced with. It is not surprising that details on Pak casualties in Z-e-A are hard to find, but I did catch a snippet in some report that the terrorists are getting expert at IEDs. So it seems to me that the Talibs are choosing classic guerrilla tactics and melting away from direct fights adding further to strains for PA. If we hark back to the bad old days of Parakram, Pak had the luxury of treating the two divs on its western border as reserves that could be (and were) moved to the eastern border in short order. Since then, gradually, things have gone sour and my first cause to sit up and take notice was when someone posted in BRF that divs from their ARN were moved west! I do not know of any new major raising in PA in the last decade, so the burden must have fallen on the same forces that are forced to rotate between two hot borders. This has to take a toll on men and machines. And that is what leads me to conclude that Pak Army is growing desperate for peace to rest its weary forces, and is willing to make major concessions so that it can focus on a single front. Especially now, when the fecal matter will really hit the rotating device. Conversely, those that stand to benefit from PA being stressed on two fronts want to make sure that India does not make life easy for PA on the eastern front.

So what should India do? My opinion, India has a clear enemy, and that is PA. India does not need to support, recognize, arm or train those fighting Pak. Pakis obligingly took care of that already. But India can and should make life miserable for PA by merely making sure that the eastern front of Pak does not remain peaceful. So far as India is concerned, the motivation behind the attack does not matter. What matters is India's response, and the bravery of Punjab Police gives India a range of options in choosing how to respond.


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