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China's Global Strategy-I

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ramana
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China's Global Strategy-I

Postby ramana » 30 Jul 2015 02:33

I hope to collect news and analyses to discern China's global strategy.

Here are BRF links to China threads:


ramana wrote:Am collecting links to all the China threads in BRF.



I) News and Discussion of People's Republic of China

II) Understanding the ChineseLets Understand the Chinese

III)China Military watch China Militry Watch

IV) China Economy WatchPRC Economy Watch

V) Understanding the UighersUnderstanding the Uighers

VI) US and PRC relationship and India US PRC relationship and India

VII) US and China in Pakistan US and China in Pakistan

VIII) China Watch Thread-1 China Watch Thread-1

In this thread I also want to collect Indian opinion/assessment of China from all web based publications.



A short history is in order.

China is unique in that only small number of dynasties ruled over four thousand years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynasties ... se_history


The two thousand years were relatively benign. However internal fissures and external pressures ruled over next two thousand years: Three Kingdoms, Mongol Invasions, Western colonial drugs exploitation.

All this dynastic rule ended with the 1948 Communist rise to power in China.

Even here China feared external enemies; USA, Soviet Union, and USA again.
Internal fissures: Gang of Four, Cultural Revolution, Great Leap forward, Tian Mein Square, Falun Gong, Uighers

So the constant is external pressures and internal fissures dominate Chinese history.

Yet in this chaos there is a Chinese global strategy emerging.

China grew economically in the post Cold War and became the factory of the world.
This built enormous financial muscle.

We see China is slowly venturing out from its Forbidden Kingdom mode and setting up outposts in far away Africa and South America.

It is using its financial clout to setup financial(AIIB) and political institutions(SCO etc.)

So the big question is there a Chinese global strategy and if so what is it?

Paul Kennedy in "Rise and Fall of Great Powers" writes that there is no one document that will outline a country's grand strategy but by looking at what a country does one can deduce it

svinayak
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Postby svinayak » 30 Jul 2015 05:56

China from 1949-1962
China from 1963-1972
China from 1973-1985
China from 1986-1994
China from 1995-2008
China from 2009-2015

Pulikeshi
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Postby Pulikeshi » 30 Jul 2015 07:56

""Near Seas" vs. "Far Seas""

One key theme is the connection of the Caspian and Persian seas to the "Near Seas"

Image

PS: Why does [img=100x50] not work??


Pulikeshi
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Postby Pulikeshi » 30 Jul 2015 08:14

Is there such a thing as China's Monroe Doctrine?

http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/challenging-us-preeminence-chinas-grand-strategy-and-the-monroe-doctrine/

If it were part of a “grand strategy,” it would be constructive to ask whether there is an assertive grand strategy at play or not. If so, does this project represent part of an assertive policy/strategy? Being able to locate this project in these terms is useful for seeing or putting together a more detailed map of Chinese strategy. Mixed signals have come to characterize China’s “unpredictable” foreign policy. Last year, Yinhong wrote about China’s President Xi Jinping, stating that he “frequently refers to the ‘Chinese Dream,’ or ‘the great resurgence of the Chinese nation.’ Coinciding with this, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) goal to build up modernized forces has shifted to the simpler but more comprehensive and forceful aim of ‘being capable of fighting, and fighting victoriously.’”

China’s actions spurred ideas about “China’s Monroe Doctrine” with the establishment of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), which the US tested, and pushing for extensive “strategic space” around China, and other actions that have led to a the historical end of Japan’s security policies and the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s move to reinterpret and reform Japan’s constitution. Moreover, China has assumed a considerable role in ameliorating the economic situation in Russia brought on by post-Crimea annexation sanctions from the European Union (EU) and the US.

Pulikeshi
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Postby Pulikeshi » 30 Jul 2015 08:23

http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/chinas-elegant-flawed-grand-strategy/

The 2011 Chinese White Paper “China’s Peaceful Development,” lists the six core Chinese interests as

  1. State Sovereignty
  2. National Security
  3. Territorial Integrity
  4. National Reunification
  5. China’s political system established by the Constitution and overall social stability
  6. Basic safeguards for ensuring sustainable economic and social development.

If the grand strategy is limited to such thinking....

In the CCP’s perfect world, its growing military and political capabilities will allow it to create a new great power relationship with the United States based on the understanding of non-interference in each other’s core interests. Through the CCP’s “humane authority,” it will establish an alternative international system based on a new set of norms that will win it friends and allies. China’s ambiguous policy of active defense along with its anti-access capabilities will deter any outside threat to its core interests. This will ensure the proper environment for the CCP to continue its peaceful development, and will strengthen CCP legitimacy, meeting the overarching objective of regime survival.


Here is China's problem:

American strategic thinker Edward Luttwak describes this problem as the paradoxical logic of strategy. According to the logic of strategy, as China grows economically, it will spend more on military capabilities, as it develops more military capabilities other states will fear China’s rise and will counter-balance against China and seek to constrain China through economic and strategic means. For China, pursuing its current grand strategy has not resulted in increased moral legitimacy and attractive power; instead it is triggering an Asian security dilemma, encouraging increased military spending by other powers in the region like Japan and South Korea while driving countries like Vietnam and Singapore to closer alignment with the United States.

Philip
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Postby Philip » 31 Jul 2015 16:03

A very comprehensive analysis of the PLAN to date.
https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf

China Naval Modernization: Implications for
U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and
Issues for Congress


Interestingly,in the sub quietness graph,the Kilo 636.3 is considered quieter than even an Amur/Lada.

Here is a good IDSA analysis.
China's Naval Strategy
Srikanth Kondapalli, Research Fellow, IDSA

http://www.idsa-india.org/an-mar00-3.html

ramana
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Postby ramana » 17 Jul 2017 23:25

Up.

DrRatnadip
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Postby DrRatnadip » 17 Jul 2017 23:59

It might have discussed here but posting an old article which helps to grasp china basics using simple maps..

http://www.businessinsider.com/5-maps-t ... egy-2016-1

In effect, China is an island in Eurasia. It can move money around and sometimes technology, but not large modern armies.
Therefore, China is not a threat to its neighbors, nor are they a threat to China. China's primary strategic interest is maintaining the territorial integrity of China from internal threats. If it lost control of Tibet or Xinjiang, the PRC's borders would move far east, the buffer for Han China would disappear, and then China would face a strategic crisis. Therefore, its goal is to prevent that crisis by suppressing any independence movement in Tibet or Xinjiang.

An equally urgent task is to assure that social conflict does not arise between the coastal region and the Han interior
. The loss of foreign export opportunities has placed pressure on the coast. Beijing's interest in maintaining stability in the interior requires transfers of money from the coast. However, the coast's interests are focused on the United States, Europe, and the rest of Asia since these are the coast's trading partners and the interior is incapable of purchasing the coast's products. No stimulus imaginable can raise the interior's income levels to the point that this area could become a market for the coast given the poverty they live in currently. This would be a multi-generational project.

This is not a new problem for China. Prior to Britain and the Opium Wars in the 19th century, China was enclosed, isolated, and relatively united. When the British opened China, massive inequality between the coast and the interior arose with the coastal region being more integrated into the global economy than into China's economy. This led to regionalism and warlords, as each region had unique interests. Mao went into the interior on the Long March, raised a peasant army, destroyed the regional leadership, and enclosed China. China was poor but united. With his death, China went into the next phase of its cycle-reopening itself and betting that this time the coastal-interior split wouldn't arise.

The split has arisen, but the political consequences have not yet played themselves out, and the strategy of the Communist Party is to forestall this by a combination of repressing any sign of opposition and a massive purge among the economic leadership. This is designed to both hold the coastal wealthy and the interior poor in check. Whether this will work depends on whether the People's Liberation Army, essentially a domestic security force, can withstand the forces tugging it in various directions. Notably, a purge and reorganization has just begun in the PLA.

ramana
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Postby ramana » 18 Jul 2017 01:15

Last Night a retired US general (Gen. Jack Keane) came on Fox Business News hosted by Lou Dobbs. He was commenting on China opening a military base in Djibouti in Somalia.
He said China is set on replacing US as the future power and is avoiding the Soviet Union mistakes.
It has already checkmated in East Pacific.
Its building up its naval power and though its not strategic but is becoming a conventional naval power to reckon.

And now wants to place itself in Djibouti which is the corner of Eastern North Africa and Arabian Sea.



However Djibouti already houses five different military bases and the Chinese base is right next to the US one.


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