China's Global Strategy-I

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KL Dubey
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by KL Dubey »

Rudradev wrote:What exactly do you mean by "two-front" thinking?

Do you mean the idea that India has to fight on a Pakistan front as well as a China front? In that case, you obviously haven't read my post. viewtopic.php?p=2504741#p2504741 "Pakistan" isn't mentioned even once. Only assets like KKH and CPEC are referred to, and they are clearly 100% Chinese-controlled assets even though they nominally lie in Pakistan.
I read your post. Indeed you did not mention Pstan at all, which was exactly my point.

China itself may have multiple "fronts" open with different adversaries, but specifically with India it wants to surround on multiple sides as far along the border as possible.

So, our only adversary is China and there is only one "front" for us.

In terms of the Quad, we are basically concerned with the southwest "edge" (IOR and Pstan border) and about half the length of the northwest edge (Himalaya from Pstan to Arunachal). Japan, US, and Australia are mainly concerned with the northeast and southeast edges (the Pacific and southeast Asia). The latter two do have some presence in the IOR as well.

There is nothing confusing about this.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Kati »

Just in case this had been overlooked . . . .

China paid $19 million to US media to buy influence

https://tfipost.com/2020/06/china-paid- ... its-tunes/
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Pratyush »

Kati wrote:Just in case this had been overlooked . . . .

China paid $19 million to US media to buy influence

https://tfipost.com/2020/06/china-paid- ... its-tunes/
The fact that media sells influence is not surprising. But 19 million took PRC as far as it did is quite surprising.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Rudradev »

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/2 ... sta-500649

Huawei has hired, as its US Consultant, the Democratic Party Lobbyist Tony Podesta.

Tony Podesta is the ultimate Washington insider. He has known Joe Biden-- and many within the current administration-- for decades. He is a personal friend of the Obamas and lives on the same street as them.

His brother, John Podesta, was Bill Clinton's WH Chief of Staff, served as Obama's WH Counsel, and in 2016 was the head of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign.

China is pulling out the biggest guns possible. They know that securing Huawei a key position in the unfolding regime of global communications, IOT, and information networking is crucial to dominating the planet... and also vital to ensuring that America (and the west in general) becomes utterly & permanently dependent on Beijing's good will. The glide path they are aiming for is 5G -> G2 -> global imperium.

Podesta's role will be to sell the unfettered embrace of Huawei to Wall Street & Washington DC establishment as being in the best interests of the US globalist elite. Embedding Huawei within the cores of their extractive social, financial, and technological apparatus today will be China's best insurance against a Trump (or Trump-like) President emerging in future.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by nandakumar »

Rudradev wrote:https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/2 ... sta-500649

Huawei has hired, as its US Consultant, the Democratic Party Lobbyist Tony Podesta.

Tony Podesta is the ultimate Washington insider. He has known Joe Biden-- and many within the current administration-- for decades. He is a personal friend of the Obamas and lives on the same street as them.

His brother, John Podesta, was Bill Clinton's WH Chief of Staff, served as Obama's WH Counsel, and in 2016 was the head of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign.

China is pulling out the biggest guns possible. They know that securing Huawei a key position in the unfolding regime of global communications, IOT, and information networking is crucial to dominating the planet... and also vital to ensuring that America (and the west in general) becomes utterly & permanently dependent on Beijing's good will. The glide path they are aiming for is 5G -> G2 -> global imperium.

Podesta's role will be to sell the unfettered embrace of Huawei to Wall Street & Washington DC establishment as being in the best interests of the US globalist elite. Embedding Huawei within the cores of their extractive social, financial, and technological apparatus today will be China's best insurance against a Trump (or Trump-like) President emerging in future.
Just curious. Behind the vague terms of reference, would there be specific deliverables within a time frame, such as, lifting the US ban on 5G telecom gear?
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Rudradev »

I'll ask Tony the next time I run into him. :)

The very fact that lobbyists of this calibre (and access level) have been recruited means that critical negotiations will now proceed far from the public eye. What the benchmarks for deliverables might be, as indeed the quid pro quo for officials involved, is anybody's guess.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by nandakumar »

Rudradev wrote:I'll ask Tony the next time I run into him. :)

The very fact that lobbyists of this calibre (and access level) have been recruited means that critical negotiations will now proceed far from the public eye. What the benchmarks for deliverables might be, as indeed the quid pro quo for officials involved, is anybody's guess.
Fair point.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Pratyush »

What can PRC give in order to satisfy the Americans into making comprises.

That all of a sudden becomes more important than any thing else.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Kati »

On eve of trial, feds ask to drop yearlong prosecution of UC Davis Chinese researcher

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article252965808.html

Unkil is showing the soft side???? :roll: :roll: :roll:
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by rsingh »

Think he agrees to spill more beans.....who knows.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Vayutuvan »

Pratyush wrote:What can PRC give in order to satisfy the Americans into making comprises.

That all of a sudden becomes more important than any thing else.
Hold back on releasing more virulent virii on EU?
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by g.sarkar »

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/30/ch ... -backfire/
Beijing’s Attempts to Intimidate Taiwan Have Backfired
Chinese coercion has strengthened democratic resolve.
By Zoe Leung and Cameron Waltz, July 30, 2021

In the past few months, the United States has worked to deepen long-standing ties with Taiwan and has corralled like-minded allies into openly supporting it. Many have considered this a necessary response to Beijing’s attempts to convince the Taiwanese people and military of the inevitability of reunification and to show the United States its determination to achieve that goal, by force if necessary. To date, this strategy has yet to persuade Taiwan that Beijing is unstoppable or convince the United States to step back. Instead, it is inspiring greater urgency among the United States and its allies and has placed Taiwan on the international agenda. With its credibility critically damaged by the crackdown in Hong Kong and repression at home, Beijing’s tactics have only complicated its path to cross-strait unification.
China’s pressure campaign against Taiwan has intensified since 2016, when Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen took office. Tsai, from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, refused to accept Beijing’s “One China” formulation, which considers Taiwan a province of a single China. Tsai’s defiance is the culmination of a dramatic swing in Taiwanese public opinion against unification with the mainland after witnessing Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong’s autonomy. To force Taiwan into submission, Beijing has mobilized a host of coercive capabilities that have been met by increased U.S. support for Taiwan. As the Chinese People’s Liberation Army tested missiles and stepped up drills in the Taiwan Strait, U.S. President Joe Biden responded by normalizing U.S. warship transits near Taiwan, coupled with sales of advanced weapons to Taipei to boost its ability to asymmetrically deny a Chinese invasion. As Beijing attempted to use economic leverage against Taiwan, the United States resumed long-stalled trade talks with the Taiwanese government, even though Biden has said that entering new trade deals is not currently a priority.
Under Biden, the White House and Congress are aligned on Taiwan being an issue in its own right as opposed to a sideshow to U.S.-China relations. In an era when bipartisanship is rare, Democrats and Republicans are in lockstep to legislate new initiatives to support Taiwan. The current Congress is on pace to break the record number of bills pertaining to Taiwan set by the previous Congress with 33 proposed laws.
Among the current bills is the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, which would help Taiwan accelerate its acquisition of asymmetric defense weapons, create a fellowship for U.S. government employees to work in the Taiwanese government, and direct the secretary of state to coordinate measures with allies to deter China from changing the Taiwan Strait status quo. Not to be outdone by the legislature, the Biden administration has loosened restrictions on governmental contact with Taiwan’s government and donated COVID-19 vaccines as Tsai was being pressured to accept doses from China.
The United States is now at its closest with Taiwan since it derecognized the Republic of China in 1979. In the past few months, U.S. delegations including senators, cabinet officials, and a sitting ambassador have landed in Taipei to reaffirm American support for cross-strait stability and bilateral engagement. Even as Beijing protests these visits as violations of Chinese sovereignty, the Biden administration has doubled down, expressing its intentions to develop relations with Taiwan in “every sector.” Americans’ attitudes toward Taiwan have also shifted, with an increasing proportion of Americans supporting U.S. intervention in the event that Taiwan were invaded by China (41%), a figure that has been trending upward since 2014 in spite of overwhelming war weariness from Iraq and Afghanistan.
......
Gautam
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Lisa »

Chinese ambassador barred from UK parliament

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chi ... 021-09-14/
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by vimal »

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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Lohit »

The rapidly crystallizing global world order of the 21st c and the role of the US in birthing it (Analysis / Essay)

The focal point of all geo-political analyses, these days, has coagulated under the central theme of the rise of China and measures to counter/contain/manage it.

However, I feel all such analyses are misguided or deliberately obfuscate, the reality of how geo-politics is likely to shape. The real principles governing the rise of a new world order and its accompanying geo-politics can be gleaned quite easily if one understands the following,

1. Global corporations own Nations: Globally nation states, especially those in the West are now completely beholden to the massive global corporates. This means the policy and action that nations take up, shall be dictated by what corporates have always wanted and will always want - maximizing profits and share holder returns. I do not think that this point requires much explanation. Corporate lobbies and how money controls politicians is a fairly well established fact.

2. The paramount priority of global corporations and ergo the nations they control - is the undisputed and unimpeded rise of China: If we look at projections of consumer market size and value growth, for the coming 30 years, it becomes amply clear that - firstly China is expected to grow to almost 3-4 times of where it is today. By contrast other G20 economies with perhaps the exception of India and a few others, will either shrink in terms of consumers available or shrink/stagnate in terms of average consumer spend.

A good sense of the shift that I am referring to, can be had by eyeballing this report: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insi ... -2050.html

Ask yourself, if you were the Chairman of a Fortune 50 firm or the CEO of a trillion dollar asset management firm, whose job only depends on churning double digit growth figures to your shareholders every quarter after quarter - how would you do achieve that, if you were to ignore China? It is simply impossible.

Over the coming 30 years, US-Western Europe-Japan, who perhaps account for 40-50% of global consumption demand would have shrunk to 20-25%. Worse still the populations would have aged considerably - how do you sell fast food, sneakers and fast fashion to a cohort of 45-50+ year olds?

Contrast that to China. As it stands, Greater China (ie Mainland+HK+Macao and in some cases Taiwan) accounts for 25-40% consumer consumption for almost all global corporates. In some cases, for instance Hollywood box-office, gaming or merchandise sales - consumer spending in China, already exceeds that of the US! And remember, this is when in the post COVID world, most countries face high inflation and a general "pooring" of their populations, while China and its people grow richer (and never mind the hype around Evergrande etc, its just the 'Three Gorges is collpasing' syndrome) - and will continue to grow in size and spending power by leaps and bounds in the next 30-50 years.

I recall from some older posts, that a lot of the old members of the board already foresaw this quite clearly fact - that the Khan and China were always thick as thieves. But for me personally, the actions of the corrupt Biden administration (not that Trump and the phony trade war was very different!), have served the purpose of pulling off the veil quite decidedly.

Consider the following,

Gen Milley, calls a Chinese General, behind his president's back and says, “Things may look unsteady, but that’s the nature of democracy" - when US supposedly champions and exports the same exact Democracy to the world. Heck, a few years back Milley explicitly stated that "China is not our enemy."

Xi Jinping's daughter studies in Harvard for 4 years under Obama admin, even as the US is well aware of what is happening to the **precious** human rights in Xin Jiang and how perniciously Chinese hackers are stealing from the US and murdering off its agents in China.

CCP awards Hunter Biden millions of dollars worth of scarcely concealed bribes, with Hunter requesting a separate set of keys for - Joe Biden - https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter ... c-chairman

All this of course, comes in a long line of tradition.

Nixon built the foundation for China's economic rise with the Shanghai communique.

Carter withdrew the defense treaty with Taiwan and erased it as a nation under the Taiwan Relations Act, tearing up the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty.

Regan armed China with 100s of Million dollar worth of advanced arms, artillery and avionics - https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/ ... dac46c6fc4

Clinton not only helped Chinese economy reach an inflection point by enabling its entry to the WTO and letting it become US' largest trade partner - he even helped China acquire ICBM technology - https://www.nytimes.com/1999/05/11/worl ... china.html

The list is endless. The only difference is that while before the US leaders held a semblance of dignity and formed policy to enable China's rise, they have now become its cup bearers and bed warmers. Biden begs for a face-face meeting with Xi and is publicly rebuffed!

Make no mistake, China is already the world's most powerful country, and more than China, it is the Western nations that want it so. This is the central principle.

Yes, we may see moves like Australia being given nuclear subs or the odd Huawei CxO detained in Canada - but these are merely feints and pawn-like moves on the global geo-political chessboard. The moment China gives a trade or commercial concessions, such "resolves" will disappear into thin air.

It is important that India, recognizes the central principle and is not fooled by getting pulled into such feints as inevitably, they will only end one way - kowtowing to China once it begrudgingly granted the desired favor - leaving so called Western "allies and partners", high and dry to the tender mercies of China.

As China rises and NATO compromises to its wishes and withdraws its influence, we will see the emergence of regional power blocs. The two most worrying ones for us, in my view, will be - the renewed Ottoman empire (with sway over North Africa, the Stans and the Gulf). Even Russia perhaps - it is projected to be muslim majority in 30 years and who knows, by then we may see a Russian president praying together with the Turkish "khalifa" in Hagia Sophia.

The other power, shall be the renewed Persian empire (with sway over Iraq and the Levant). While these two mini-super powers will often be at odds with the other - both will naturally take up their old civilizational role of being inimical to India, the nation of infidels.

For China and by extension NATO and Iran as well as Turkey - shared interests would converge in, to borrow the term in vogue, "dismantling" India. A number of squabbling nations fighting over limited resources - and of course the traditional, caste/creed/language/religion - is what they would want to see. A captive, weak market that additionally serves up as a buffer between the China and the rest.

All of these aggressors - Islamic, Western powers and China perceive us as an accidental state, holding scores of nations at each others throats. A timid peoples, all to ready to be divided and ruled and eager to serve at the beck and call of outside masters. And given our hstory, heck even as matters stand today - who can blame them for believing so?

The ramifications of this crystallizing new world order are two-fold,

1. Globally, enlightenment values of individual rights, liberty, democracy etc will increasingly vanish - resetting the gains for the human condition of the past 100s of years
2. Internally, India will face extremely high external pressure on its national sovereignty and infact its very existence as a nation state


Faced with such odds, it is important that more than Indian policy makers and leaders - Indian people realize the crisis that we are at. If they decide, we can still be the masters of our own destiny and retain our rightful place in the world order. Afterall the same projections, also indicate India too will be a very large and lucrative marketplace.

The only way I see the analysis outlined above, not holding up, a sort of Pascal's wager if you will - is if there is a realization in NATO powers that a China, enthroned as numero uno, will end the progressive western values and individual rights. Frankly, given the vested interests of corporates and the sheer power at their behest I do not see this happening.

The only way the stranglehold of corporations is challenged can be by leftist popular movements. Corporations have this covered already - the so called BLM, LGBT, Green and other such movements are for the most part controlled by Corporate interests and figureheads such as the notorious George Soros. They are compromised at their very birth - a controlled opposition. And even such movements ultimately look up to China. Thus the hedge is already in place.

It is also worth noting that China is insulating its own population very aggressively against intellectual slavery of corporations - be it the booting of Jack Ma, as well as neo-reeducation programs curbing gaming and social media, incentivizing the unmarried to raise 2+ child families, censoring effeminate/LGBT media and themes etc

Our ancestors, preserved dharmic values and culture - for 300 years against the Turks, 400 years against the Moguls and 200 years against the Europeans. They performed Jauhars and Sakas. Men reconquered lands that had been lost for hundreds of years right till the Attock. Women fought in the battlefield with babies tied to their backs. For what? To preserve Dharma.

Like those hundreds of years, we too can tide this period of global dominance by an evil, autocratic, God-less and merciless China and its Western lackeys. IF, we remember what's important and why it is worth fighting for.

For me personally, UP elections will mark a great bell-weather. If Yogi looses, combined with the loss in Bengal - it will give enough momentum to the opposition to oust Namo in 2024. Then we are right back to potentially decades of chaos and strife. And given the external factors described above, it will make the 80s and early 90s period as India experienced them, seem like a time of amazing peace and prosperity.

As long as we are sorted within, we can crush anything that the world throws at us. If not, we already have the history of the past 1000 years to teach us what happens next.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Lohit »

***Warning: This is a fairly speculative post, and quite low on analysis so take it with a maund of salt***

The approaching black swan - Chinese economic nuke that is going to wipe out the US and most other economies globally

Xi bazookaed the Alibaba $1 Tn IPO. Pinduoduo lost $30 Bn in valuation almost overnight. Chinese Gaming companies lost $60 Bn in combined value. And the world is watching with bated beath, the spectacular cluster F that is Evergrande, that is threatening to wipe out anywhere between $300-500 Bn of value in the Chinese financial and real estate markets.

And all this is happening under the watchful, intent gaze of Xi Jinping. Master planner and executor extraordinaire.

So how eactly is this contradiction coming to pass? Let me take a stab at it.

China wants a massive stock financial market crash and economic recession - to happen in China.

While it will hurt them a lot, in a country where they control every aspect of life in a iron fist - banks, police, army, media and social media as well as technology, Xi is betting that he can ride it out - as they've managed Wuhan virus. Their people remained meek even when sealed shut in their houses and even as 100s of thousands of deaths were kept secret.

Now, if a massive, spectacular crash happens in China, knowing that the global economy and particularly financial markets are very tightly coupled, this new Chinese virus, albeit a financial one, will also spill over to rest of world, particularly the US.

If you look at US gdp growth from '01 to '21, it has grown roughly 2x - this should be the primary pivot for what financial markets should mirror in terms of their growth. Sure they can go 1.8x or 2.5x but ideally, no more.

Is that how things are?

Dow jones and NYSE have grown 4x and NASDAQ has grown 8x these last 20 years.

Compare that to China; their GDP has grown 10x while the Shanghai composite has grown 1.5x.

The hyper leveraged markets of the US had already ben running on fumes and rabid speculation, but post covid dollar pumping and the robin hood era has taken things to an unimaginable precipice.

Now coming back to US markets, their total market cap is something like $60Tn. Combine that with xxxcoin, complex financial instruments and speculative burst in housing prices since '10, and you have a total "wealth" pond of almost $100 Tn, most of which is speculative.

IF a massive crash in China happens and it sets off a mega-bear in the US and other western financial markets - what you then have is a potential wealth evaporation, and lets say we are really conservative here - it still comes to a wipe out of $30 Tn.

It will beggar US and other economies, a tsar-bomba scale mega economic KO. An extinction event for Corporate America.

As the troubles start, given that the US has a hard core leftist dispensation, it will be v difficult for them to pass any bailouts. In fact they won't. A corrupt and inept Biden dispensation will only accelerate the collapse.

And even if it comes to a bailout, the Fed has already pumped in $3Tn worth of fake money into the system - which has setoff spectacular inflation in the US and global doubts on the dollar.

Imagine the Fed pumping or trying to pump $30Tn - the dollar will become about as valuable as the venezulealan bolivar.

China has been prepping hard. It has been creating massive piles of food, fuel, gold, raw materials and weapons. While China will hurt very badly, but every other nation will hurt 100x more and China is willing to go for the coup de grace to seal the fate of the petro dollar and the US, forever.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Manish_P »

Certainly worth thinking over..

During the past 2 'COVID years' didn't China's growth, or shall we say non-seriously-dented economy, sustain itself on the basis of their internal consumption (as against their usual exports)?

Was that a test by Xi to see if his country could survive a depression without his (and the CPC) hold on the people getting loosened?

That, coupled with his shake-up of the top brass in the Chinese armed forces, might mean that he is now pretty confident of his strategy.

Perhaps this also gives an insight into why the US, under business minded Trump, and now Biden (partly forced by Trump, partly pushed by the deep state/Corporates/...) were in a tearing hurry to get out of the A'stan sinkhole and re-focus on the China front.

Very interesting post indeed, Lohit ji.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Jarita »

ramana wrote:
TKiran wrote: The major deficiency in China strategy is its inability to form alliances, trust deficit. Well the path they chose doesn't have any room for accommodation of any other power, major or minor. Constantly scheming to weaken the others. If any power blinked, use and throw. If anybody resisted, bide time and change tactics, and weaken the opponent.
The Romans had similar strategy and ended up converting to Christianity.

In other words China needs buffer states and vassal states yet these can turn around at right opportunity.

China also converted to Christianity after the cultural revolution. They may call it by another name.
It is critical that Indian's recognize that modern China was created by western design and very much imbibes a form of liberation theology. Modern China is a factory state for the west where any of their so called laws can be circumvented for maximization of returns. The west (loosely defined term for a set of oligarchs) will always be incented to support and nourish China. It is their investment too.
In the war of civilizations, India is a distinct civilization while China is a subtle copy.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by vijayk »

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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by S_Madhukar »

Jarita wrote: China also converted to Christianity after the cultural revolution. They may call it by another name.
It is critical that Indian's recognize that modern China was created by western design and very much imbibes a form of liberation theology.
...
In the war of civilizations, India is a distinct civilization while China is a subtle copy.
+10

They effectively created a market that will produce as well as consume western goods, otherwise we would have been back in the ancient history where Chinese goods were much in demand and western goods not so much... Effectively they need India to be Christianised as well so that it too can serve them cheap goods and consume their (fake) expensive goods whether iphones or media or literature. Korea (and Japan to lesser extent) is another example that is so Christianised or Americanised if you will that despite a falling birth rate at their end they will produce goods for western consumption such as kpop, anime, p***n and other miscellaneous tech that will serve the western hemisphere. China will for sure if not at a global level then at least in Asia-Pacific want a similar hegemony of its Yuan so that they can revert to the Middle Kingdom and protect their backyard. That will happen once the mighty USD is humbled for good.... And by the way does not matter how much per capita income you may grow to, unless you are Christianised you won't be part of the 'developed' world groups such as OECD
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Lohit »

Manish_P wrote:Certainly worth thinking over..

That, coupled with his shake-up of the top brass in the Chinese armed forces, might mean that he is now pretty confident of his strategy.

Perhaps this also gives an insight into why the US, under business minded Trump, and now Biden (partly forced by Trump, partly pushed by the deep state/Corporates/...) were in a tearing hurry to get out of the A'stan sinkhole and re-focus on the China front.

Very interesting post indeed, Lohit ji.
That is my strong hunch as well, although it could be just paranoia. But better be paranoid than caught flat-footed.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by chanakyaa »

Lohit wrote: The approaching black swan - Chinese economic nuke...
Lohit the plot reminds me of the Mel Gibson movie, Payback in which hero sees that the asian gangsters are not wearing a seat belt while driving a car, so Gibson decides to do full head-on car crash while wearing the seat belt....surviving spectacularly, killing the gangsters. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgsucydYd3s

On a serious note, the scenario could very well play out, but I'm curious where you got $30tn from. Regardless, such an assumption based on "equity" market action is bit stretched. Impact of such magnitude is only possible from the disruption of "credit" market and not "equity" markets. And, the lending in China is mostly domestic, which means Chinese can print their way out in case of 2008 like credit crisis for a while. Many in the wyest have been waiting (15+ year) with candle in the hand for debt bubble to burst. But the broader point about financial crisis being dangerous if exploited, is spot on.

The other side is not sitting idle either. In the near-future, chances are high, that Chinese company ADRs (baba, duoduo, didi, tencent etc.) get booted out of yoos market, so any impact based on "equity" market is going to be very limited. Except, manufacturing, the de-linking from Chinese economy has been in the works. If the strategic unambiguity ends over TW, the unraveling could start soon (<2025??). May be all the stars (TW, SCS, debt, economy, covid-22/23/24 etc.) eventually align, perhaps against panda creating a perfect storm. Will see.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Lohit »

chanakyaa wrote: surviving spectacularly, killing the gangsters. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgsucydYd3s
That's a darn good analogy i must say :lol:

I have to confess, $30Tn is a number I've pulled staright outta my a$$. :oops:

The operating assumption here is that something similar to 1929 may happen. For instance, back then, by 1932, stocks were, on average, worth only 20% of their value in 1929 and by 1933 50% of all US banks had failed and hence I say I am being conservative if I assume 30% of permanent value destruction: https://www.history.com/topics/great-de ... rket-crash.

There are loads of places where a conflagration could start. While I described the speculative "wealth bucket" totaling to around $100 Tn. How about the underfunded liabilities pot of $210 Tn : https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldi ... 08745865b1

When you say,
chanakyaa wrote: Impact of such magnitude is only possible from the disruption of "credit" market and not "equity" markets.
I am not sure on what you would base this assumption since almost all great market crashes have been followed by periods of extreme fallout on the real economy. For China, this event may cause bank runs, deflated demand for both local companies as well as global ones as well as major impact on global commodities, travel etc. So either China contains it and life carries on as normal or China crashes and takes the financial world 10,000 leagues under the sea.

Again, in China, homes are THE wealth pools. Not many other options are available. So a real estate crash will leave scars to the extent that spending on wealth and consumption may take DECADES to recover. A Chinese consumer deflation that takes decades will have catastrophic impact on US, where as I mentioned already at least 20-25% sales of all companies come from China and all future business plans are built on the assumption that Chinese demand will grow 3x in coming 3 decades.

I agree when you say that China "can print its way out " and has enough financial wherewithal to do so. But that is infact the core of my concern, the spectacular wealth destruction we've been seeing in China on the technology side and even the extent to which Evergrande has been allowed to play out, makes me lend some weight to a possibility that Xi is enacting a Mel Gibson-Payback scenario.

On the other side, I must say, that the US seem quite suspect / incompetent as well. They seem completely beholden and sold out to Chinese interests. As a corollary, supply-chain shocks that will be rocking the US and creating turmoil in an already on the edge society have begun, PN state has passed order to ration alcohol. The US is unable or seems unwilling to do anything about this.

Its a question of which nation can control mass riotings and civil unrest better. Can US enter any sort of Taiwan play when its economy is in flames and society enters mass civil unrest, veering on civil war levels? China can stroll across the Taiwan straits with US busy putting out fires all over continental US itself.

Meanwhile, even as Evergrande has hit its first set of default alarms, today we had this news from financial markets (in no particular order) -

Hang Seng; FTSE China down 4%
Hang Seng property index down 5.4%
Tata Steel down 10% (hits lower circuit); NSE down 1.4%
Iron ore futures down 10%
DOW down by 1.6%, S&P Futures 1.3%; and NASDAQ down by 1.6%
European auto index down 3.2%; Euro Stoxx 600 down by 2%
Bitcoin down 5%; Ether down 6%

Having said all this, let me towards the end caveat all my analysis by quoting you -
chanakyaa wrote: Many in the west have been waiting (15+ year) with candle in the hand for debt bubble to burst.
Will it be the one this time or another Three Gorges / 2 more weeks meme? Time will tell but lets err more on the side of caution in whatever way we can.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Lohit »

Let me also jot down thoughts on what could be Xi's endgame.

Now, most of us on the board know that the secret to US' preeminence to power, the cornerstone of its strength, is not its trillion dollar defense spend, not its blue water navy of 20 aircraft carriers, not its 5.5k nukes, nor its soft power flex of Hollywood - these are merely some pieces of it. I'd assert the cornerstone is the USD.

The USD accounts for 60% of the world's reserves vs 2% Yuan: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/02/outlook ... trade.html

Similarly USD accounts for 40% of global trade settlements despite being a part of only 12% of global trade vs 2% settlements in Yuan

From a Chinese POV, this is blatantly unfair considering that from a Chinese as well as an objective POV, China IS the world's #1 economic power.

The reason why the USSR collapsed is because of its minuscule control of markets and economy vs hard power. If one were to use a proxy, USSR and its allied GDP was at best $800 Bn vs World GDP of $35 Tn.

If China, can force a USD collapse, it can then also force a Bretton Woods style reset so that the Yuan from current levels of 2% in global trade and reserves is made to go upto 25-30%. IF this happens and given China's fundamentals, it can secure and more importantly get acknowledged, its position as the world's #1 power for the coming 100 years or so. And it can then remake the world as the CCP celestial emperor sees fit.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Adrija »

Lohit, ji, if I may- equating US economic supremacy to USD as world's default settlement currency is IMVHO mixing cause and effect. USD is the global settlement currency because the US is the world's largest consumer market, not the other way around........ if/ when China becomes the world's single largest consumer market, AND its institutions and currency become "trust worthy" i.e. global markets are assured that government cannot expropriate the wealth of its citizens and debase their currency at will, only then would the Yuan have a shot at replacing USD

If anything, China under XI has walked even further away from that reaching anywhere even in consideration for that status
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Vadivel »

The Headaches Plaguing China’s Exporters and How They Are Hurting Trade
By Luo Zhiheng

This year, we have witnessed the post-pandemic recovery of the global economy. Despite various challenges, such as the recovery of global production, the decline of overseas demand and the weak U.S. dollar index, China has maintained rapid, although somewhat fluctuating, growth in exports in the first half of 2021, with the monthly export volume continuously rising beyond the market expectations.

There are two reasons for this surge. The first is that the structural adjustments in export products have continued and major exports have shifted from anti-epidemic supplies and consumer durables to intermediate goods necessary for resumed global production. The second reason is that China has expanded its exports to emerging markets, especially to Southeast Asia.
Weekend_long_read_chart1

However, some worrying signs has started to appear. The year-on-year ratios of the seasonally adjusted exports and the export delivery value have shown a slowing trend since April. The global export rebalancing will lead to a shift from Chinese production to global production. In addition, the full resumption of the overseas economies will drive the substitution effect of the overseas supply and demand.

Foreign trade and foreign-invested companies in China are important parts of its economy. Our survey shows that they are faced with four major challenges today, which will put pressure on foreign trade growth in the second half of 2021.

Headache 1: Shipping blockage
For foreign trade companies, shipping is the most important mode of transportation for goods. Over the past year, the international shipping sector has seen an increase in demand and shortage of supply, hurting China’s exporters and importers.

The worldwide spread of COVID-19 and the short supply of crew have resulted in the reduced capacity of cargo ships along the international routes. Meanwhile, the global economy and foreign trade demand have generally recovered, causing a supply-demand imbalance that raises freight rates. In addition, ports have introduced stricter pandemic prevention and control measures for people and goods, actively weakened their handling capacity and lengthened the clearance time, resulting in reduced shipping efficiency. Especially noticeable is the issue of closed hub ports, as this forces cargo ships to take longer routes, possibly causing the break of the entire shipping chain.

Weekend_long_read_chart2

The global cancellations and delays for ocean shipping routes have gone up. Since the beginning of the year, freight charges have skyrocketed, while the on-time delivery rate (OTDR) has declined. In August, the spot rates for the routes from Shanghai to New York and to Los Angeles soared, with an increase of over 10%, more than doubling; the spot rates for major routes to Europe increased by more than 3% compared to the previous month, more than five times year-on-year.

According to Sea-Intelligence’s report, the OTDR of shipping companies around the world has been around 40% since March 2021, but it dropped to 35.6% in July, close to the low level at the beginning of the year. In July, the average OTDR of China’s major coastal ports has even gone below 20%.
Weekend_long_read_chart3

As a result, the continuous rise in freight rates will squeeze their profits. Notably, small and midsize companies lack protection from long-term agreements, making it difficult for them to get deliveries on time, causing them to get caught in delays which further trigger inventory backlog and cash flow shortage. Because of this, they find themselves in a dilemma where they dare not receive orders as they cannot make profit from exports.

Headache 2: Short supply of materials
Key materials for the products of Chinese foreign trade companies are in short supply, thanks to the unstable industrial transfer and Covid-19.
For one thing, amid Covid-19, developed economies like the United States have imposed stricter restrictions and protection on strategic industries and sensitive sectors. Chinese foreign trade and foreign-invested companies have been deeply engaged in the international production network, making them more dependent on the resilience and stability of the supply chain. In particular, when it comes to high-tech firms, the industrial policies have been restrained by the global economic and trade landscape. Therefore, many companies are making efforts to improve their stocks of key parts and components and further diversify supply channels while transferring production bases closer to home and implementing production transfer in different regions.

The duration of the Covid-19 impact has been beyond expectations. The short supply of semiconductor chips has had an especially great impact on enterprise production.

For example, the short supply of chips of upstream enterprises has given rise to the shutdown or production reduction of downstream carmakers. IHS Markit predicted that nearly 1 million vehicles would be facing forced delays in the first quarter of 2021. According to AlixPartners, the impact of chip shortage will cause an income loss of $60.6 billion to the global automobile industry in 2021. Malaysia is a major manufacturing region for semiconductors. In August, Malaysia’s intensified pandemic situation led to the shutdown of some VCU chip lines for electric vehicles, further affecting foreign trade in automotive electronics. The supply-demand imbalance caused by Covid-19 cannot be resolved in a short time.
In the long run, to secure the national industrial chain, simultaneous layouts at home and abroad should be made to address the raw material issue.


Headache 3: Price surge
For foreign trade companies, the rise in prices of bulk commodities has pushed the prices of industrial raw materials up, lowering the profits of exporters at the production end. The central government has issued a number of policies, such as the promotion of import diversification and the establishment of stable channels for bulk commodities, to stabilize foreign trade.
The general rise in prices of bulk commodities since the beginning of the year has been driven by the global supply-demand imbalance and mobility. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a typical indicator for global trade. The continuous rise of BDI is mainly attributed to the price surge of bulk commodities. In particular, the prices of black commodities, such as coal, have been rising, which has led to continuous new highs of freight rates.
Weekend_long_read_chart4

Multiple factors like the decline of coal imports and short supply of domestic coal have lead to a negative supply-demand relationship in the domestic coal market, leading to the sustained high level of the coal price in the first half of this year. To control the coal price, national authorities including the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) have implemented several measures over the past two weeks to increase the coal capacity and comprehensively implement new strategies for the low-carbon energy transition.

Headache 4: Workforce crunch
Foreign trade companies have played an important role in stabilizing Chinese employment. But the current demographic trend has caused an irreversible rise in labor costs.

The post-pandemic labor market in China is facing a more prominent structural shortage of laborers. Foreign trade companies, especially cost-driven processing companies, are the worst affected.
Since the outbreak of the pandemic, China’s labor shortage has worsened, especially in the manufacturing industry. According to the list of the top 100 occupations with the most acute shortage of labor released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, as of the second quarter of 2021, the employment gap (recruitment needs minus the number of applicants) increased rapidly, from 850,000 in the first half of 2020 to 1,021,000, a rise of 20.1%.
Weekend_long_read_chart5

The labor shortage of the manufacturing industry accounted for 38%, while the gap for general workers with low technical requirements accounted for 55.3% in the manufacturing industry. Meanwhile, the highly skilled talent gap is widening.

The post-pandemic distribution of employment in the shared service industry has also aggravated the labor shortage in the manufacturing industry. In China, about 830 million actors participated in the sharing economy in 2020, including around 84 million individuals engaged in providing service and 6.31 million employees of digital online platforms, a year-on-year rise of 7.7% and 1.3% respectively, as estimated by the Sharing Economy Research Center under the State Information Center.

The new employment pattern in the platform-based sharing economy entails inclusivity and flexibility for workers, which not only solves the post-pandemic employment pressure but also helps to reduce the uncertainty of the employment market. Meituan, a Chinese delivery service platform, has absorbed many secondary workers during the pandemic. According to the Report on the Employment of Meituan Riders released by the Meituan Research Institute, over 35% of delivery riders used to work in factories.
Weekend_long_read_chart6

Outlook for China’s exports
As we look into the future, exports will gradually drop to pre-pandemic levels from the pandemic high. Given the gradual rebound in industrial production and de-China-ization in the global industrial chain, it is inevitable that China’s exports will see a marginal decline from the current high level.

This year’s unexpectedly high exports provide a window for boosting solid and sound economic growth. The resilient export is a result of China’s supply-side fiscal stimulus, which aims to ensure security in operations of both market entities and foreign trade entities, thus protecting the integrity of the supply chain amid global economic uncertainty.

There are still sources of hope.

Although the pressure of counter-globalization and de-China-ization still persists, market behaviors in some Western countries may act entirely different from what the governments and politicians wished for.
While developed countries which have gone through a period of deindustrialization find it hard to rebuild their manufacturing systems, emerging economies fail to absorb the incoming orders. Great uncertainties driven by vaccine shortages and the lack of binding force of non-drug-related COVID-19 prevention measures have prevented these emerging countries from becoming the substitutions of China.


Luo Zhiheng is deputy director of Yuekai Securities Research Institute.

https://archive.ph/bnWVG

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-09-18 ... 74763.html
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Lohit »

Adrija wrote:Lohit, ji, if I may- equating US economic supremacy to USD as world's default settlement currency is IMVHO mixing cause and effect. USD is the global settlement currency because the US is the world's largest consumer market, not the other way around........ if/ when China becomes the world's single largest consumer market, AND its institutions and currency become "trust worthy" i.e. global markets are assured that government cannot expropriate the wealth of its citizens and debase their currency at will, only then would the Yuan have a shot at replacing USD

If anything, China under XI has walked even further away from that reaching anywhere even in consideration for that status
Adrija ji, in my opinion, USD as default currency came to be because Europe and the World at large were bankrupted post WW2. I'd say, given the world's subsequent hunger for dollars for global trade post Bretton Woods and later creation of petro-dollar in '71 meant that the US consumer was wooed by the world's merchants to give them the dollar.

I'll assert that in PPP terms, Chinese market is already larger than US: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... developing

Now, as far as "trust" is concerned, I believe that is a myth propagated by the US. What trust did the world have in the US when it detonated 2 nukes over Japan? It was coercion. Global power is more often than not, snatched rather than being handed over.

The same way that Brits snatched global power when they conquered India and made China a virtual slave in the 18th/19th c. so that the sterling became the global currency then

Or before that Spanish pieces of eight used to be the global currency in 13th-16th c when Spain conquered South America.

Its less a question of what the "world" may or may not want and more of whether China can force its way to what it wants. Can it cause enough pain and conflagration in global economies for them to to come suing for peace and agreeing to give Yuan, at least an equivalence to the dollar.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by chanakyaa »

Lohit wrote: Let me also jot down thoughts on what could be Xi's endgame.

...
If China, can force a USD collapse, it can then also force a Bretton Woods style reset so that the Yuan from current levels of 2% in global trade and reserves is made to go upto 25-30%. IF this happens and given China's fundamentals, it can secure and more importantly get acknowledged, its position as the world's #1 power for the coming 100 years or so. And it can then remake the world as the CCP celestial emperor sees fit.
Looking at this scenario, that is the billion dollar or yuan question, "If China, can force...", or, rearranging the question, "Can China force..."? And, how would eleven and his minions achieve this? Consume less products/services or raw material from RoW? Doesn't move the needle. How does that stop RoW from needing to earn USD/EUR to buy oil/gas, copper, and microprocessors to run its economies? Agree with the theoretical basis of the plot. The leverage in the financial system is out of proportion. Instruments such as "interest rate" are abused to a level that near zero rates have outlived utility. Combined factors have laid the foundation for creating massive systematic risk that has the potential to take the real economies down with it. However, the claim that eleven and his minions have figured out "contagion" and have a plan to use its economy and capital markets to drop financial H.bum and come out unscathed like Mel Gibson in Payback is bold. Primarily because the RoW is not as plugged with China as with US/Europe whether in terms of capital markets, foreign reserves, trade, commerce etc. Interesting thoughts and a scary scenario nevertheless. On the topic of xi's debt burst, Hayman's Kyle Bass has been shouting sky is falling for the past 15 years. May be his prayers will finally get answered.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Lohit »

chanakyaa wrote:
And, how would eleven and his minions achieve this? Consume less products/services or raw material from RoW?

How does that stop RoW from needing to earn USD/EUR to buy oil/gas, copper, and microprocessors to run its economies?
In my opinion you answered the question yourself - by deflating demand. As pointed out in my previous post, China sales already account for a big chunk of US flagship companies. But more importantly, IMO, the current US equities bubble is based on "pricing in" expected double or triple digit revenue growth from China. What happens to all that valuation once this concept of a never-ending China demand goes up in smoke? The answer in my opinion will be large scale layoffs in the US which inturn will lead to demand deflation given already high and projected to rise, inflation - and then onward to a downward spiral of depression.

To your second question on why would RoW stop using dollar - once the US economy is indeed successfully nuked by China, it will be a question of which economy will recover sooner? After an year or two of economic destruction, US may face a recovery curve of a decade. Or two. Meanwhile Xi might orchestrate "spring-shaped" economic recovery, with demand "made" to recover in an year or two. Given this, China may then demand that it will only trade with those who want to be a part of China's rebound - if they trade in the Yuan and replace the dollar in their reserves with Yuan as well. Opportunist Euros will be the first to capitulate. RoW including US will then follow.

Again, I would assign a probability of say 5% to this scenario playing out since it is more of a "grand conspiracy" by the CCP rather than something that lends to "conventional" wisdom. For now I'll use this line of thought to hold onto cash and dump equities. I don't think the time has come to start buying Yuan just yet.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Anoop »

Xi Jinping Aims to Rein In Chinese Capitalism, Hew to Mao’s Socialist Vision

https://www.wsj.com/articles/xi-jinping ... 1632150725

Excerpts:
In Mr. Xi’s version, the government
would have a level of control that would allow it to steer the economy and industry along a
path of its choosing, and channel private resources into strengthening state power.....

For foreign businesses, the campaign likely means more turbulence ahead. Western
companies have always had to toe the party line in China, but they are increasingly asked to
do more, including sharing personal user data and accepting party members as employees.
They could be pressed to sacrifice more profits to help Beijing achieve its goals.
..“Supervision over foreign capital will be strengthened,” said a person familiar with the
thinking at China’s top markets regulator, “so it won’t be able to obtain ultra-high profits in
China through monopoly and capital-market operations.”

Industries that Mr. Xi views as being led astray by a capitalist spirit, including not only tech
but also after-school tutoring, digital gaming and entertainment, are bearing the
immediate brunt. A policy aimed at turning private education companies into nonprofit entities all but killed
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc., which has provided English lessons to
generations of students studying abroad. Its shares have plunged about 90% this year.

Mr. Xi’s policy changes have dashed more than $1 trillion in stock-market value and erased
over $100 billion of wealth for entrepreneurs such as Alibaba founder Jack Ma and
Tencent’s Pony Ma. Private companies and their owners are being encouraged to donate
profits and wealth to help with Mr. Xi’s common-prosperity goals. Alibaba alone has
pledged the equivalent of $15.5 billion.

State-owned companies, having already bulked up under Mr. Xi’s rule, are marching into
areas that were pioneered by private firms but are increasingly seen as crucial to national
security, such as management of digital data.

A ministry supervising state companies, the State-owned Assets Supervision and
Administration Commission, is mapping plans to set up more government-controlled
providers of cloud services for data storage, people familiar with the agency’s workings
say. Such services have been dominated by private companies, including Alibaba and
Tencent.

The city of Tianjin has ordered companies it supervises to migrate data from private-sector
cloud platforms to state-owned ones within two months of the expiration of existing
contracts, and by September 2022 at the latest, according to an official notice dated Aug.
12. More localities are expected to follow suit, the people say.

Government-controlled entities are acquiring stakes and filling board seats in more
companies to make sure they fall in line with the state’s goals. ByteDance Ltd., owner of the
video-sharing app TikTok, and Weibo Corp. , which runs Twitter-like microblogging
platforms, recently have sold stakes to state-backed companies.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by chetak »

If it had been any other govt but Modi's, India would have been a huge part of this debt trap mess by now with the country in hock upto the eyebrows

xi certainly tried everything, sweet talk, coercion, political pressure, and now finally renewed military pressure in ladakh after their failure at doklam.

xi still desperately needs India in the BRI, her resources and markets have been the covetous target of the cheeni trade and geopolitical policies, both overt and covert for some decades now.

Only this time around, there has been a massive blowback from India with clear financial, diplomatic, and geopolitical repercussions, the likes of which the hans would never have imagined in their wildest nightmares

If the regime changes in India as many BIF are making efforts to bring about just such a change , there will be a renewed push to get the BRI into India among other social justice efforts to establish political leverage to stymie the awakening of the majority.




China’s debt-trap diplomacy?


China’s debt-trap diplomacy?

BRI participant countries owe over 385 billion USD to China in hidden debt, study reveals

The research estimated that 40 lower-to-middle income countries(LMIC) have debt exposure to China that is higher than 10 per cent of their national gross domestic product(GDP)

29 September, 2021
Jinit Jain

China's BRI is proving to be a massive debt trap for low and middle income countries, study reveals


China has long been known for using its financial clout to further “debt-trap diplomacy”, a policy that encompasses saddling borrowing nations with excessive credit with the intention of extracting economic or political concessions from the debtor country when it finds it increasingly difficult to meet its debt repayment obligations.

Now, a report published by AidData says China’s Belt and Road Initiative has left a large number of countries burdened with “hidden debts” to the tune of $385 bn.

The report published by AidData, an international development research lab based at the College of William & Mary in Virginia, further says that scores of countries underreported their financial liabilities linked to China for many years now, resulting in mounting “hidden debts”, or confidential liabilities that the countries might be obligated to pay.

AidData has parsed through more than 13,000 aid and debt-financed projects worth more than $843bn across 165 countries for a period of 18 years ending 2017 to arrive at the conclusion that Beijing has been stealthily deploying its “debt-trap diplomacy” where China uses its financial supremacy to tie smaller countries in the allure of lucrative loans and then using the leverage to bend them to its will.

The analysis conducted by AidData researchers has hinted that Chinese lendings are considerably larger than previously estimated by credit rating agencies and intergovernmental organisations with surveillance capabilities. China, they conclude, has been able to pull the wool over intelligence agencies from finding out the substantial leverage it held on small countries by extending seemingly large credit lines to them.

Brad Parks, executive director of the AidData team, was astonished to discover that the hidden debt amount granted by China is close to $385bn, as reported by Financial Times.

The discovery of China’s practice of saddling countries with outsize loans in order to exert its influence on them has come at a time when the pace of lending on the Belt and Road Initiative has hit roadblocks, partly because of the United States’s initiative in leading the G7 effort to undercut Beijing’s hegemony in international development finance.

However, the report underscores the enduring consequences of a sharp transition since Xi Jinping unveiled the BRI plan after coming to power in 2013.

The marked shift in Beijing’s lending strategy after Xi Jinping was elected as the President of China

China had previously directed its lending to sovereign borrowers such as central banks. But under Xi Jinping’s leadership, that changed fundamentally. As of now, more than 70 per cent of China’s foreign debt comprises loans extended to state-owned companies, state-owned banks, special purpose vehicles, joint ventures and private sector institutions.

The research estimated that 40 lower-to-middle income countries(LMIC) have debt exposure to China that is higher than 10 per cent of their national gross domestic product(GDP). On average, the LMIC government is under-reporting repayment obligations to China by an equivalent of nearly 6 per cent of GDP.

“These debts usually do not appear in the government balance sheets in developing countries. The critical point is that most of them have safeguard against explicit or implicit forms of host government liability protection. That’s equivalent to erasing the difference between private and public debt,” Parks said in an interview with Financial Times.

China’s plan of pressurising borrowing countries that are struggling to repay their loans to cough up their physical assets

The research has come at a time when there is a looming fear among many countries about China moving to seize their assets in case they default in their loan repayment. Earlier last year, former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed said China’s banks were not giving them ‘breathing space’ even in the pandemic.

The exorbitantly high outstanding amount that the Maldives owes to China led Mr Nasheed to worry if the country could face the same fate as Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port. Earlier in 2018, China made Sri Lanka cough up the Hambantota port, miles off the shores of its rival India, and a critical base to monitor the Indo-Pacific trade route.

Similar to the case of the Maldives, the former Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa had taken enormous loans from China that the succeeding government in Sri Lanka struggled to square accounts with. As a result, after tough negotiations and months of pressure from Beijing, the Sri Lankan government handed over the port and 15,000 acres of land nearby to China for 99 years.

Not just physical but China is focused on collateralising liquid assets too: Brad Parks
Parks, however, revealed that though China has developed an image of a country using its loans to collateralise physical and illiquid assets, the research suggests that they are also involved in collateralising liquid assets.

“It is true that Chinese state-owned lenders have a strong preference for collateralisation: we find 44 per cent of the overall lending portfolio was collateralised, and when the stakes are really high, that’s when they turn to collateral,” he said.

Park says China is asking borrowers to maintain a minimum cash balance in an offshore account, or an escrow account, that is controlled by Beijing. So when the borrower fails to repay loans, the lender claws back the amount through such offshore accounts.

African countries who are part of China’s BRI cancel projects blaming China’s lack of transparency and shoddy work of Chinese companies

Countries that have a financial relationship with China are not just wary of losing their physical or liquid assets but also about the shoddy quality of work the Chinese companies are doing on their soil. This is the reason why a great many African countries are showing stiff resistance to Chinese companies, initiating action against Chinese investment and cancelling existing Chinese projects.

According to the Singapore Post, the low-grade work of the Chinese companies is to blame for the cancellation of a spate of projects.

John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies’ China-Africa Research Initiative report said that China signed 1,141 loan commitments with various African governments and state enterprises which were worth USD 153 billion. This was done during the period 2000 to 2019, according to the Singapore Post.

Most of these Chinese projects in Africa are getting suspended or abandoned by the African countries amidst the Covid-19 crisis and the inability of these African countries to pay back the huge loans taken from China. Hence in order to cut debt burdens, these countries decided to shut down the Chinese projects, most of which fall under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative 2013.
via OpIndia
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by anupmisra »

China’s Belt and Road plans losing momentum as opposition, debt mount: Study
President Xi Jinping launched BRI in 2013 to use China's strengths in financing and infrastructure construction to "build a broad community of shared interests" throughout Asia, Africa and Latin America.
China’s vast Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is in danger of losing momentum as opposition in targeted countries rises and debts mount, paving the way for rival schemes to squeeze Beijing out, a new study showed on Wednesday.
But Xi’s “project of the century” is now facing major challenges and significant backlashes abroad, according to a study by AidData, a research lab at the College of William and Mary in the United States.
“A growing number of policy makers in low- and middle-income countries are mothballing high profile BRI projects because of overpricing, corruption and debt sustainability concerns,” said Brad Parks, one of the study’s authors.
AidData said $11.58 billion in projects in Malaysia have been cancelled over 2013-2021, with nearly $1.5 billion cancelled in Kazakhstan and more than a $1 billion in Bolivia.
The study said an increasing number of China-backed projects have been suspended or cancelled since BRI’s 2013 launch, with evidence of “buyer’s remorse” in countries as far afield as Kazakhstan, Costa Rica and Cameroon.
Link to download report: https://www.aiddata.org/publications/ba ... t-and-road

https://indianexpress.com/article/world ... t-7542045/
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by nits »

This are the countries Quad should target by giving them an alternate balanced viable solution... Not referring or advocating refinancing of loan
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.news.com.au/technology/inno ... 89b084e386
Proof China has been practising for years for a war that would spark mass global conflict
Experts agree the next major world conflict will be sparked by China, and its massive military began quietly training for it several years ago.
Shannon Molloy, October 14, 2021

Concealed within the grounds of a mammoth Chinese combat training camp lies a replica of a major city’s landmarks and infrastructure.
From above, it looks like any other functioning central business district, with major buildings dotting gridded streets near a huge highway interchange, just down from an international airport’s runway.
It took China just two years to construct the mock city, which bears undeniable similarities to Taipei, the capital of Taiwan.
Shortly after works were completed, a snippet of vision emerged showing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducting a significant invasion drill.
As smoke from exploding bombs filled the fake city streets, troops dropped from choppers in a field run towards the presidential headquarters as tanks descend and anti-aircraft missiles aim at the sky.
The drill was conducted in 2015, but the vision is no less chilling when viewed in a current context.
As tensions flare between Beijing and the West over China’s escalating activities near Taiwan and in its air space, experts fear a major conflict is inevitable – and imminent.
And as the invasion drills in the replica of Taipei show, the PLA is more than ready.
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Gautam
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/1 ... ict-515983
Taiwan tensions raise fears of U.S.-China conflict in Asia
China seeks to bring the strategically and symbolically important island back under its control, and the U.S. sees Taiwan in the context of broader challenges from China.
ASSOCIATED PRESS, 10/14/2021

BANGKOK — After sending a record number of military aircraft to harass Taiwan over China’s National Day holiday, Beijing has toned down the saber rattling but tensions remain high, with the rhetoric and reasoning behind the exercises unchanged.
Experts agree a direct conflict is unlikely at the moment, but as the future of self-ruled Taiwan increasingly becomes a powder keg, a mishap or miscalculation could lead to confrontation while Chinese and American ambitions are at odds.
China seeks to bring the strategically and symbolically important island back under its control, and the U.S. sees Taiwan in the context of broader challenges from China. “From the U.S. perspective, the concept of a great power rivalry with China has driven this back up the agenda,” said Henry Boyd, a Britain-based defense analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The need to stand up to China is a strong enough motivating factor that not taking this fight would also be seen as a betrayal of American national interests.” China claims Taiwan as its own, and controlling the island is a key component of Beijing’s political and military thinking. Leader Xi Jinping on the weekend again emphasized “reunification of the nation must be realized, and will definitely be realized” — a goal made more realistic with massive improvements to China’s armed forces over the last two decades.
In response, the U.S. has been increasing support for Taiwan and more broadly turning its focus to the Indo-Pacific region. U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price on Tuesday emphasized that American support for Taiwan is “rock solid,” saying “we have also been very clear that we are committed to deepening our ties with Taiwan.” Washington’s longstanding policy has been to provide political and military support for Taiwan, while not explicitly promising to defend it from a Chinese attack. The two sides came perhaps the closest to blows in 1996, when China, irked by what it saw as increasing American support for Taiwan, decided to flex its muscle with exercises that included firing missiles into the waters some 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Taiwan’s coast ahead of Taiwan’s first popular presidential election. The U.S. responded with its own show of force, sending two aircraft carrier groups to the region. At the time, China had no aircraft carriers and little means to threaten the American ships, and it backed down. Stung by the episode, China embarked upon a massive overhaul of its military, and 25 years later, it has significantly improved missile defenses that could easily strike back, and equipped or built its own aircraft carriers. The U.S. Defense Department’s recent report to Congress noted that in 2000, it assessed China’s armed forces to be “a sizable but mostly archaic military” but that today it is a rival, having already surpassed the American military in some areas including shipbuilding to the point where it now has the world’s largest navy.
Counting ships isn’t the best way to compare capabilities — the U.S. Navy has 11 aircraft carriers to China’s two, for example — but in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, China would be able to deploy almost the entirety of its naval forces, and also has land-based anti-ship missiles to add to the fight, said Boyd, a co-author of IISS’s annual Military Balance assessment of global armed forces.
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Gautam
ramana
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by ramana »

US appears to have conveyed all out war if China attacks Taiwan.
chetak
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by chetak »

ramana wrote:US appears to have conveyed all out war if China attacks Taiwan.
the amerikis simply do not have the stomach for another war, sought to be fought with ameriki boots on the ground and in another country, especially to protect sovereign interests other than core ameriki concerns

the ameriki core competency, perfected since korea, is to enter uninvited, make a huge mess, muddy the waters, and then bug out while leaving the locals slowly twisting in the wind.

if push comes to shove, taiwan will be no different.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by kit »

While India was focused on the Pakis ., Chinks are making some chinks in the neighbouring Bhutan and more importantly the beedis ., The latter one has more strategic value., if push comes to shove the transit through the "chicken neck" area at the far east would a matter of concern., although there is a pact with BD what if they renege on it at a crucial point ?

We need to throw the paki thread in the dust bin and focus on the chinks and beedis btw

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-inter ... ken-s-neck

Strategically, the Siliguri corridor is the Achilles heel in the defence of almost 2000 kilometres of borders with China and Myanmar. With China continuing road and airstrip construction activities on its side of the border, the threat to the Chicken’s Neck is a constant one, as the infrastructure could allow China to mobilise rapidly in the region. The deployment of artillery, missiles or anti-aircraft weaponry could further jeopardise India’s efforts to resupply the region in case of war.
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by NRao »

40 min long

Vayutuvan
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Re: China's Global Strategy-I

Post by Vayutuvan »

kit wrote:While India was focused on the Pakis ., Chinks are making some chinks in the neighbouring Bhutan and more importantly the beedis ., The latter one has more strategic value., if push comes to shove the transit through the "chicken neck" area at the far east would a matter of concern.,
What I don't understand is this. If the Chinese actually cut off India from the far east at the chicken neck area, aren't they going to be hammered from Indian troops on both sides? They would have a thin line. India can let a large contingent of Chinese cross over into BD and then cut their supply lines. It would be a 1971 redux. I may be making this too simplistic but then the talk that Chinese can actually cut off Indian North east from RoI is also naive and simplistic., IMHO.
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