Tuvaluan wrote:Why will refugees flood India if pakistan "fails" -- what is the definition of "failed state" that will cause this? Pakistan already fits the definition of a failed state -- if it fails any more, it will still remain as failed as it is now. This is the kind of argument used to pretend that "making peace" with pakistan is the only way out -- pakistan is the fortress of islam and India is not, so the pakis are going to stay where they are, and if at all they come into India, it is a terrorists...and they are all appropriately dealt with by the Indian Armed forces. This kind "paki refugees will flood India and we will be saddled with them" is nonsense. If pakistan breaks apart, India can work with whatever new power centers emerge, as they will well before the breakup happens.
I think that refugees could pour in as a result of multiple events in which one event is a "last straw". That means war combined with drought or other natural disaster. However as Shreeman points out I think Pakjab will be immune to this sort of stuff - so we ain't gonna see too many coming in from the Pakjab side in a "worst case" scenario. We are sort of "shielded" from Baluchistan and Pakhtunistan by Pakjab - so refugees from there can only enter Pakjab or Sindh or Afghanistan.
But Sindh may be a problem. Sindh is a desert and Karachi has 10% of the Paki population and a lot of refugees from the NW. If there is severe civil war (luck by chance) plus drought/flood leading to famine - then we may see boat people coming from the Shitistan coast.