The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby rsingh » 05 Oct 2015 20:53

Karan M wrote:Rsingh,
They do that with the Russians, there will be payback if new Russia is like old Russia/SU, and from all accounts it probably still is.

http://articles.philly.com/1986-01-15/n ... ganization

Hostages? No Problem Soviets Offer 'How-to' Lesson In Kidnapping


Its pretty common to write off the Russians. Georgia and then Ukraine. In both cases they have proven they can hack it. Then there was Chechnya. No dearth of brutal stuff there too.

What a world it is


True. There is a video about specnaz unit that took part io operation.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Prem » 05 Oct 2015 21:04

Austin wrote:Jamming the Jihad: Russian Electronic Warfare Systems Spotted in Syria

http://sputniknews.com/world/20151005/1 ... stems.html


Russian claim 300Km range . We should be practically able to fry all of Paki electronic equipments right from the border.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby johneeG » 05 Oct 2015 22:02

Jhujar wrote:
Austin wrote:Jamming the Jihad: Russian Electronic Warfare Systems Spotted in Syria

http://sputniknews.com/world/20151005/1 ... stems.html


Russian claim 300Km range . We should be practically able to fry all of Paki electronic equipments right from the border.


Exactly. And our missiles. That explains 'strategic depth' in Afghanistan.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby vishvak » 05 Oct 2015 22:11

deejay wrote:<SNIP>
Best case for our intervention in foreign lands under our flag was Afghanistan and I always appreciate the decision makers who decided to stay out. Look what the US achieved after all these years.
<SNIP>
..
Instead, I like the anti terrorism stance and direction in the UN that India has taken. It is what Russia would want us to say and we have got US to agree with us. It is a tight rope for the Indian MEA. I will go with their approach.

Point is, what has India achieved by reducing support to Afghans and under whose instructions? Americans lose nothing by fighting far off, but what about our own interests? We are glad to reduce influence even in immediate neighborhood while interest groups set their own tune -Human Rights (Shri Lanka), Violence to secularism (leftists in Nepal) - to begin with. The best scenario for India is to bomb ISIL from all sides - no matter which side - from Air. If Russia sends 10,000 troops then we should too - even if just as support personnel. Only good ISIL jehadi is dead jehadi - which is our policy of not differentiating good/bad terrorists.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Prem » 05 Oct 2015 22:28

On Twitetr:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQaaxY4VAAIm7z3.jpg

Image

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Shanu » 05 Oct 2015 23:00

Seems the Russian party is going strong till now..but sorry to be the party pooper here.

I seriously doubt whether Russian Airforce can change the war dynamics in the entire Levant. Yes in Syria, their presence will mean that Assad will not lose any more ground. But any future progress is highly suspect with Turkey and the Gulf states firmly on the side of Islamic rebels.

For example, look at this news report. IS is now cleansing any opposition that can rise against them among the local Sunnis.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34446066

Or the increasing shrill propaganda among the Western media about Russian violation of Turkish airspace.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34448942

It all looks like a modified Afghanistan scenario with Russia, Shias and Alevis on one side and the Sunnis and Nato on the other. How will Russia deal with the 8 million strong Sunni populace under IS?
How will Russia deal with the numerous others who will now be streaming in from Turkey and Jordan borders to prop up IS?
Not to mention the gradual firming up of a defacto alliance between Turkey and GCC to protect the Sunni lands?

They will again face the same dilemma as they did in the 1980s, how can they control Afghanistan when the enemy is in Pakistan? So i ask again, how will Russia win in Syria when the enemy is in Turkey and in the Gulf?

Are PKK and Houthis the solution? Possible but not probable. They do not have the numerical heft to win these wars.

To make a long query short, what is the end game? I fear it can only be another stalemate.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Shalav » 05 Oct 2015 23:35

RE: Turkish Airspace

Apparently last year Turkey imposed a unilateral buffer zone 5km deep into Syrian airspace, after (what they say) a SAAF MiG23 intruded into Turkish airspace. Since then SAAF aircraft have not flown within 5 km of the border with Turkey. To all practical purposes this also served to protect ISIS and "moderate" rebels supply lines with Turkey from SAAF attacks.

This Rus aircraft was flying in Syrian airspace within the 5 km exclusion zone. Obviously Turkey did nothing about it, and this is clear by their statements.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Kati » 06 Oct 2015 02:02

In Lebanon Christians forming an alliance with Hezbollah.

http://www.mintpressnews.com/they-accep ... on/210088/

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Oct 2015 02:30

Shanu wrote:Seems the Russian party is going strong till now..but sorry to be the party pooper here.... But any future progress is highly suspect with Turkey and the Gulf states firmly on the side of Islamic rebels. Are PKK and Houthis the solution? Possible but not probable. They do not have the numerical heft to win these wars... what is the end game? I fear it can only be another stalemate.


Shanu: Then why did the Russians draw the line in the sand, in Syria? Why not wait until Syria fell and ISIS and Moderate Rebels were at each other's throats? IMO this would have been a far worse headache for US/Oirope. Surely Iran can survive even if Syria goes down? The ISIS is not going to murder ALL shias in Syria. Jordan would be next on ISIS list.

So I have not understood the Putin move. Was he forced or did he see an opportunity? Is he doing all this just to protect one base? Or does he see a grander plan where Iraq, Egypt, Syria and Iran are firmly wrenched from western grip, followed by Libya? Does he sense that KSA, center of Sunnistan, is shaky and can be toppled?

He cannot attack Turkey because Turkey is a NATO member. But can he get freedom for the Kurds, starting with Iraqi Kurdistan, and that can topple the Turkish regime? What happens if PKK get a lot of SAMs through Iraq? ISIS may run riot in Turkey, forcing Oirope to come to the rescue of the secularists there.

Or can Russia simply turn Syria into a fortress with Iranian help? Also see about Lebanon: Syria encloses Lebanon, and the presence of the RuAF shields Lebanon from the kindness of the I(s)AF. So even stalemate may mean a hugely increased Russian influence zone reviving what was lost circa 1979. Iran, Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon. If Iran co-opts Azerbaijan, Russia will have drawn a half-circle and begun to put the squeeze on Turkey, even as KSA becomes a loose tooth.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby sudeepj » 06 Oct 2015 03:05

Putin is creating leverage. The west has not forgiven him for Crimea and that sword will continue to hang over his head for a long long time. They cant harm him militarily, but they can inflict an enormous amount of financial damage. Western Europe sees the Crimean annexation from a prism of "international law" while Putin sees the several hundred year old Russian objective of having at least one warm water port. A couple of years down the line, Putin will exchange Assads head for the formalization of his control over Crimea and perhaps the partition of Ukraine.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby KLNMurthy » 06 Oct 2015 03:14

Why not take putin at his word? He says he is concerned that ISIS chechens will create mayhem in Russia.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby ramana » 06 Oct 2015 03:27

Syria is very important for Turkish psyche.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Prem » 06 Oct 2015 03:37

Pakistan blocking Afghanistan under US control, Iran making deal with WEST and Chahabhar With India ,once again no near abroad access to warm water port for Russia. Only base left for them is in Syria.
(Once TPP deal is done, Chinese ,in fear of losing export market, too will betray Russia)

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Y. Kanan » 06 Oct 2015 04:21

deejay wrote:
Philip wrote:Ahead of the curve again! Where is India? Not even a squeak out of the MEA/FM. So much for a would be UNSC aspiring global power.

http://www.rt.com/news/316705-china-syria-isis-fight/ China’s military advisers ‘heading to Syria to help fight ISIS’ – report
Published time: 28 Sep, 2015

...


Philip Saar, this is one mess which we should be staying out of. No point in taking positions. For us, it is an event to watch, learn and prepare.

Getting involved would mean taking sides - whichever side is bad for us. The Russians and Chinese have a direct stake in it. We played no part in creating it. We should play no part in it even now. Later - I do not know. More nations that get involved, more the chances of an all out World War 3. We are dangerously close to WW3 with both Israel and Turkey getting uppity with the Russians, Chinese and Iranians in the neighbourhood.

Best case for our intervention in foreign lands under our flag was Afghanistan and I always appreciate the decision makers who decided to stay out. Look what the US achieved after all these years.

Insurgency based conflict based on guerrilla warfare, does not have short term solutions. These will be protracted. In an urban situation, friend or foe could be one window away and you wouldn't know. Aerial bombing is just for bigger targets, individual fighters are hard to locate and neutralise. J&K, NE and naxals have taught us a lot. These lessons should tell us to remain non aligned.

Those teachers we rescued from the Libyan ISIS would've been dead if we sided with Assad backed forces even if only in principle. If we sided with US led initiative, neither the Russians, not the Chinese or the Iranians would find it palatable. Plus, given the very clear US support or lack of action against ISIS, is it really the basket where we should put our eggs?

Instead, I like the anti terrorism stance and direction in the UN that India has taken. It is what Russia would want us to say and we have got US to agree with us. It is a tight rope for the Indian MEA. I will go with their approach.


The more big players that join in, the more likely that Turkey, Israel or KSA will behave themselves. Right now it's basically "everybody gang up on Russia" which makes it more likely one of these countries (or the US itself) will trigger a violent confrontation with Russian forces or even start WW3. These jokers are getting way too cocky,mostly because of the perception that Russia stands alone, isolated and without friends. If India and China were both deployed in force, the Turks\Saudis\Americans would think twice before starting something. It would add legitimacy to the operation because it would now be a truly multi-national effort involving the three big players (Russia\China\India). The US and pals would be far less likely to supply the bad guys with SAM's, if there were Indian and Chinese aircraft flying missions instead of just Russians.

Russia + India + China + Iran + Iraq + Syria makes for a pretty intimidating coalition. Enough to make even the new Axis of Evil (US\GCC\Turkey) think twice. If we stand together, we can make history. This alliance has the potential to bring about several key events:

-Force Pakistan to do the Saudi's bidding and piss off China, or piss off the Saudi's by failing to come to their aid. Either way Pakistan loses.
-Pry China away from Pakistan and into the Russo-Indian camp
-Destabilize Saudi Arabia and possibly create a Shia-Sunni civil war within that country. A weak Saudi can't bankroll Pakistan or stir up as much trouble in India.
-Firmly cement Iran, Iraq and Syria as staunch allies and arms customers for Russia, India and China
-Keep legions of jihadis tied up fighting an endless war against the Shia govts of Syria and Iraq. Less trouble for us.
-Halt the endless march of Sunni militancy. Keep them tied up in the ME instead of letting them spread to Central Asia and India.

There will never be a convenient time to remake the world order. Sometimes you have to take risks. Playing it safe will only harm our interests in the long run.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby ramana » 06 Oct 2015 05:12

kanan, Do read WWI alignment of forces and how it ended.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby NRao » 06 Oct 2015 05:48

Reports suggest that Russia has dropped of artillery/smersh in Syria. One location it is bound for is Hom (and the other Ibild?).

In addition Russia is reporting that Russian "volunteers" are headed for Syria.

This is getting more and more interesting.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby NRao » 06 Oct 2015 05:58

Russo-Indian camp


Let us wait till Modi visits Russia within the month.

I can see an oil/energy relation.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 06 Oct 2015 06:29

this Lavrov seems to specialize in red welts on USA mush ..

"So far no one has told us where and how this Free Syrian Army operates or where and how other units of the so-called moderate opposition operate."
The minister also said that Moscow has asked the United States for details on the army.'

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 06 Oct 2015 06:31

I agree its time to put some cards on table and atleast extend logistic support to the Assad govt.

ISIS being hammered is a good example for all warlike sunni kabilas around the world to see - their best shot at a caliphate getting thrashed.

the GCC can only funnel funds and small arms to ISIS, they do not have the manpower or the direct route to extend big help as Iraq and Jordan sit in the way, followed by the kurds.

Assad should declare thos 5km zone inside syria as totally illegal under international law and declare open season on the border belt.

syria has the largest number of uniquely named militias I have ever read of. every mohalla has its own armed militia with colourful names like jaish-al-janakpuri ansar-al-bandra...let by charismatic leaders with historic names like Abu khalifa and Abu pistoli :rotfl:

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Oct 2015 07:01

The poor country is that shattered.
V burned the city 'cause they wouldn't agree..
That things go better with Democraceee!
- Don McLean, "Livin' In the Yoo Essay"

But SMERSH s portend scorched-earth reclamation program by Assad's army. Which may be the only way to go.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 06 Oct 2015 07:23

Beautiful video:
Russian airstrikes hit hidden ISIS weapon stores outside Idlib - Oct05, 2015

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 06 Oct 2015 07:26

Russia hit huge ISIS ammo hold near Homs - Oct05, 2015

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 06 Oct 2015 07:47

US waves white flag:
Moscow’s red lines were crossed – ex US intel chief on Russian military op in Syria

“We have to understand as Americans that Russia also has foreign policy; Russia also has a national security strategy. And I think that we failed to understand what that is :idea: ,” said the former DIA chief.


“And I think that those unstated red lines was the size and the scale of those radical Islamists that came out of the Russian Federation to fight inside of Syria in this Islamic State,” he explained.

“We can’t have two great nations like Russia and the US diving into this very complex situation...you could end up bumping into each other and causing something very different,” he said, calling Russia’s military action a “huge, huge step in the complexity of this situation.”



Recalls that earlier Russia asked US for talks but was rebuffed. Lavrov then responded americans to "be our guests"
Russia to U.S.: talk to us on Syria or risk 'unintended incidents' - Sept 11, 2015

Russia called on Friday for military-to-military cooperation with the United States to avert "unintended incidents" as it stages navy exercises off the coast of Syria, where U.S. officials believe Moscow is building up forces to protect President Bashar al-Assad.

Obama said Russia would have to start using diplomacy rather than force to counter the influence of Islamic State militants. He said the group posed more of a threat to Russia than to the United States because of the country's large Muslim population :eek: .
{This is the same line from Obama was repeated by the Ex-Intel guy above; So, this is how they want to explain the Joe Six Pack of Russian motivation}

Lavrov blamed Washington for cutting off direct military-to-military communication between Russia and NATO after the crisis in Ukraine last year. Such contacts were "important for the avoidance of undesired, unintended incidents", Lavrov said.

"We are always in favor of military people talking to each other in a professional way. They understand each other very well," Lavrov said. "If, as (U.S. Secretary of State) John Kerry has said many times, the United States wants those channels frozen, then be our guest."

The war has killed 250,000 people and driven half of Syria's 23 million people from their homes.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said it was too early to judge what Russia's motivations were in Syria, but ‎"adding war to war" would not help resolve the conflict.

"If it's about defending the base in Tartous why not? But ‎if it's to enter the conflict...." he said, without finishing the thought.


Staunch Allies of US had already thrown the towel earlier (as of Sept 11, 2015)
Britain, one of Assad’s staunchest Western opponents, said it could accept him staying in place for a transition period if it helped resolve the conflict.

France said on Monday he must leave power “at some point or another”. Smaller countries went further, with Austria saying Assad must be involved in the fight against Islamic State and Spain saying negotiations with him were needed to end the war.

The Syrian pro-government newspaper al-Watan saw Britain’s position as “a new sign of the changes in Western positions that started with Madrid and Austria”.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Karan M » 06 Oct 2015 08:25

No wonder TSP and these guys get along. Full blown downhill skiing.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 06 Oct 2015 08:40

Look at the heights of hypocrisy:

Obama said Russia would have to start using diplomacy rather than force to counter the influence of Islamic State militants.


Advocating diplomacy to deal with terrorists who have killed thousands in the most gruesome way imaginable and the evidence of which is abundantly available on the internet.

But Iraq and Afghanistan were attacked by US without even flimsy evidence against them and these attacks by US resulted in millions of direct and indirect causalities.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby ldev » 06 Oct 2015 08:51

So I have not understood the Putin move. Was he forced or did he see an opportunity? Is he doing all this just to protect one base? Or does he see a grander plan where Iraq, Egypt, Syria and Iran are firmly wrenched from western grip, followed by Libya? Does he sense that KSA, center of Sunnistan, is shaky and can be toppled?

He cannot attack Turkey because Turkey is a NATO member


IMO Russian/Shia advances in Syria will drive KSA towards desperation. So long as NATO/Turkey stay out of a direct fight, the desperation will be led by the Sunni bloc, primarily KSA. Even if there is no decisive victory, the continuation of a conflict which will suck in more and more ISIL types will result in blowback for KSA. If as a result of these tensions the price of oil rises, KSA is a winner, but Putin win's bigger because the Ruble floats against the USD but the Saudi riyal is fixed. If the price stays low, KSA will be on the ropes in 24 months latest, resulting in a breakage of the USD-riyal peg. Result will be widespread dissatisfaction leading to civil unrest in KSA where the pampered Saudi's will see a significant fall in their standard of living. A worst case scenario for KSA is such widespread unrest that oil production is affected. A huge win for Putin.

Even in the event of a protracted war in Syria at the present level or even a higher intensity,which Russia can afford, the flow of refugees into Europe will accelerate. Putin will be quite happy to trade Syria for Ukraine if Europe gets really desperate with the refugee/migrant flow. So its a win win situation for him, if he can keep NATO out. And to ensure that Turkey/NATO do not interfere, he seems to be sending a direct message to Turkey to stay out of Syria in the incident given below:

SU-30SM has close encounter with Turkish F-16s

Furthermore, it seems that the Russian Su-30SM (as said, initially referred to as a Mig-29, before it was determined it was a Flanker-derivative multirole jet) maintained a radar lock on one or both the F-16s for a full 5 minutes and 40 seconds.

According the Russians, the violation was due to a “navigation error”: quite funny considered the type of navigation systems equipping a modern Su-30SM.

Although the navigation error can’t never be ruled out a priori, considering the equipment carried by a 4++ Gen. aircraft, and that it was flying next to a “danger zone” there’s reason to believe that the two pilots on board were perfectly aware of their position.

What is even more weird is the fact that the Russian plane locked the Turkish F-16s for such a long time: instead of turning back the RuAF Sukhoi was ready to fire (or to respond to fire).


Also, the most important end game, if KSA falls, will the price of oil continue to be denominated in USD? Iran, Iraq and Russia will certainly in that case not price their oil in USD terms.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 06 Oct 2015 09:05

The high cost of avoiding war in Syria - WashPost Oct05, 2015

In the desperate fight against the Islamic State, the Pentagon has it all wrong. It has been using color coding to designate the eligibility of various Syrian rebel groups to receive U.S. aid. According to the Wall Street Journal, some groups were assigned green dots while others were given red and some yellow. This is where things went wrong. The last color should have been saved for the White House :rotfl: .


I do not accuse, in case you’re wondering, President Obama of personal cowardice. I do, however, accuse him of an excess of caution and not knowing what he is doing. A Turkish official summed it up for the Journal this way: “The Americans color-coded; the Russians invaded.” :lol: {sorry can't help with smileys...this is a riot}


Obama says the Russians have stepped into a quagmire. I agree. Soon, Russians will be killed on the ground. Maybe then Putin will send more troops to protect the ones already there. In this way, his commitment would escalate. Clearly, though, he is aware of the risks. Just as clearly, he thinks they are worth taking. In other words, he knows what he is doing.


The United States in contrast seems to be at a loss. Obama has called for Assad to go. He hasn’t gone. The United States has poured millions of dollars into training rebels to fight the Islamic State, but not those fighting Assad. It is picking and choosing among rebel groups and has not had much luck. The Pentagon has produced maybe four or five fighters :shock: — yes, that’s the correct amount — while some of the others it has trained have gone over to the enemy, taking their equipment with them. The entire enterprise lends itself to parody were it not for the fact that 200,000 lives have been lost in Syria and 4 million people pushed out of the country.


At times, Obama talks like a Miss America contestant who vows, if she wins, to campaign for world peace :rotfl: . The president, in that spirit, said at the United Nations recently that guns alone will not defeat the Islamic State. “Ideologies are not defeated with guns, they’re defeated by better ideas — a more attractive and compelling vision.”

But we already have better ideas. How’s not making women into sex slaves? How’s not decapitating foreign hostages? How’s not massacring prisoners of war? How’s not destroying ancient religious sites? These are not bad ideas and they have been around and tested for quite some time. In fact, some originated in the region. How’s the Golden Rule for a better idea?

Obama talks mush {<- this is not my word and he perhaps means talks thru mush}. The Islamic State needs to be fought. It is a fascist movement whose clarity of purpose attracts the lost and bewildered. Upward of 20,000 of them have flocked to Syria and Iraq from all over the world. They know our better ideas. They have rejected them in favor of violence. We need to kill them. There is no other way.

The war that Obama has avoided in Syria has cost many lives. The war he has avoided has swamped Europe with migrants. The war he has avoided has made a muddle of U.S. policy, provided an opening for the Russians, exhibited American irresoluteness and caused much pain — everything from the continued barrel bombing of Syrian civilians to the drowning of Aylan Kurdi, the toddler refugee who slipped from his father’s grasp and into the Mediterranean Sea. What color does the Pentagon have for him?

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 06 Oct 2015 09:25

Lavrov denies allegations that Syrian army is not fighting against terrorists

http://tass.ru/en/politics/826274

Syria’s moderate opposition also can hardly boast any success, the minister said. "Nobody knows about them, and no one has heard much about the moderate opposition," he said. "We talked about the Free Syrian Army, but it’s some phantom group," he said. "Nothing is known about it," Lavrov said. At least, I asked [US Secretary of State] John Kerry to provide us some information where this Free Syrian Army is located and who controls it. "We will even be ready to establish contact with it, if these are indeed efficient armed groups of the patriotic opposition that consist of Syrians," the foreign minister added. We don’t hide it, but no one has told us where the Free Syrian Army operates or where and how the other units of the so-called moderate opposition act," Lavrov said.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Shanu » 06 Oct 2015 09:39

Nicely explained UB ji.. :)

That is why i find BR such a great place to clear my head.

So a prolonged stalemate may not be a particularly bad thing for Russia.. considering the objective set - Its better to fight terrorists outside your home than inside. By keeping Syria alive Russia may be attempting to create a target where column after column of jihadi wannabes will come and die. And as happened with our Western neighbour, it may just lead to a significant blowback on the Jihad masters.

Having said that, with the Gulf and EU becoming more desperate, even maintaining the stalemate can require significant new moves from Mr. Putin, You have already mentioned some scenarios.
What happens if PKK get a lot of SAMs through Iraq? ISIS may run riot in Turkey, forcing Oirope to come to the rescue of the secularists there.


I can also think of some others like - creating a southern Kurdistan with Iraqi and Syrian Kurds and giving them air cover to fight for their northern brothers in Turkey with full array of the Russian anti-armour missiles and comm gear.

And of course, there will be counter moves from the Good Guys. So this can be a pretty dynamic stalemate. Lot of things to learn for a nanha mujahid like me. :mrgreen:

Austin
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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 06 Oct 2015 09:59

From Military Ops POV Vladimir Karnozov report sums up quite well

Russian Air Force Enters Middle East Fray With Strikes in Syria
by Vladimir Karnozov
October 5, 2015, 11:58 AM

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... ikes-syria

Russia's air force is pressing ahead with its attacks against forces fighting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. As of October 5, the Russian air force reported conducting nearly 100 bombing raids in Syria using Sukhoi Su-24M, Su-25 and Su-35 jets. The military action continued despite an October 3 incident in which Turkish F-16 fighters were scrambled to intercept Russian warplanes that had violated its airspace close to the border with Syria.

On September 30, Russia gave the U.S. and its Nato allies barely an hour's notice of the start of bombing raids against Islamic State (ISIS) forces. “First, we will support the Syrian army as far as they are, namely, fighting terrorist groupings,” Russian president Vladimir Putin declared. “Second, this support will be rendered from the air, without our involvement in operations on the ground. Thirdly, this support will be time-limited, while the Syrian army conducts advance operations.”

Since mid-September, the Russian air force has increased its presence at the Hmeymim Airbase outside the Syrian port city of Latakia on the Mediterranean Sea, where support is strongest for Assad. Russian contingent there includes “about 2,000 servicemen” and “over 50 aircraft,” according to Russia’s ministry of defense (MoD). There are some 30 strike aircraft of the aforementioned dedicated strike types, a handful of Su-30M/SM multi-role fighters for air cover, and about 20 Mi-24/35 and Mi-8 helicopters. The reported use of several Su-34 Fullback strike fighters is their first known combat deployment.

Reconnaissance, electronic intelligence and targeting information is being supplied by an Ilyushin Il-20 turboprop, several types of unmanned aircraft and possibly combat jets outfitted with recce pods. Supply is provided by An-124 and Il-76 strategic airlifters. Russian navy ships in the eastern Mediterranean off Latakia and Tartus provide air cover and radar coverage to the air group.

According to an MoD statement, the Russian aircraft have performed “pinpoint bomb attacks,” with all air strikes coordinated with the Syrian army. An operational group of the Syrian defense ministry is deployed at Hmeymim airbase for this purpose. To prevent engagement with the civilian population, the targets for Russian aviation are assigned outside of inhabited areas and only on the basis of confirmed reconnaissance data received from multiple sources. To provide necessary information concerning the positions of terrorists and the results of their engagement, unmanned aerial vehicles and means of space reconnaissance are used.”

The Russian MoD has conducted daily briefings in Moscow led by its official representative, Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov. He has insisted that “all strikes are committed after the aerial reconnaissance and detailing (of) the information we received from the Syrian army HQ.” The most detailed briefing thus far was given by Col. Gen. Andrei Kartapolov, chief of the main operational directorate of the general staff of the Russian Armed Forces. According to Kartapolov, the air force conducted more than 60 combat sorties through October 3, striking more than 50 objects “of the terrorist infrastructure belonging to ISIS.” . The U.S. government has contested Russia’s claims that it is targeting ISIS.

“Our reconnaissance reports that gunmen leave the areas which they controlled,” Kartapolov said. “There are panic and defection among them… Because of this, we will not only continue with our strikes, but increase their intensity.”

Since 2014, a U.S.-led collation has conducted thousands of air strikes against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, enabling the Iraqi army and Kurdish militia to withstand pressure from the Islamic extremists.


Kartapolov said the coalition was informed of the Russian air strikes before they began. “Moreover, foreign colleagues were informed through channels of both Russian Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Foreign Affairs and were advised to withdraw all instructors and advisers as well as those people who had been trained with American taxpayers’ money,” he said.

In most of the photos available from the MoD and Russian journalists at Hmeymim Airbase, the Su-25SM/UB, Su-24M and Su-35 strike aircraft are shown with free-fall munitions on their under-fuselage and wing pylons, most notably OFAB-250-270 blast-fragmentation bombs, as well FAB-250 and FAB-500 “general purpose” bombs. These can be dropped from altitudes of up to 5,000 meters. There are also BETAB-500 concrete-piercing bombs, effective against concrete bunkers, which must be dropped from lower altitudes. Use of these munitions has been confirmed in news releases and daily briefings by the MoD.

Among guided weapons confirmed as being used in Syria, there are three types. Su-24M aircraft were photographed with the Kh-25ML laser guided missile under one wing pylon. The newest “smart” munition, widely shown at air shows, but until recently not confirmed as being operational is the satellite-guided KAB-500S “corrected aviation bomb.” Finally, the Su-30M2/3 and Su-30SM multirole fighters are depicted flying missions with R-27 radar-guided and R-73 heat-seeking air-to-air missiles, which have ranges of 60 and 30 km, respectively, according to the Russian air force.

An analysis of the Russian air strikes conducted to date points to four distinct geographic points. Most often mentioned in MoD briefings is Jisr al-Shughur in northwestern Syria. Apparently, the Russian air force is trying to disrupt supply lines from Turkey to Syrian rebels fighting in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, where the Syrian army has recently been losing ground. The second area is a triangle to the north of Latakia, formed by Ghab Plain, Latamieh and Khirbet-Has. The goal is obvious: to secure the Russian air force base from possible raids by rebels operating in this area. The third area is between the cities of Homs, Hama and Salamiya, where Assad’s troops have encircled a large rebel force of up to 5,000 gunmen.

Finally is the area of Al-Raqqa, closer to the Iraqi border. Strikes there do not reflect the pressure on Assad’s troops, but carry political significance because Raqqa is widely acknowledged as being the Islamic State’s capital city.


Philip
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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Philip » 06 Oct 2015 10:16

The pot will truly boil over if with their new-found bonhomie,Russia and Iran ,plus Iraq,could cobble together a Kurdish solution.At least for the Iranian-Iraqi Kurdish angle.Brokering an agreement with the Iranian and Iraqi Kurds.Then,they could arm the Kurds,"turds" to the Turks,arm them to the teeth,SAMs included, to take on both the new "Caliphate" (ISIL) and the "would-be Caliphate",Turkey! It would be a great "Thanksgiving" with Erdogan being basted on a shaft!

ISIS tanks get wasted.
https://www.rt.com/news/317715-russian-jets-isis-syria/
Russian Air Force destroys 20 ISIS tanks near Palmyra – Defense Ministry (VIDEOS)
Published time: 5 Oct, 2015 21:23
Get short URL
Russian pilots prepared to board the SU-30 attack plane to take off from the Hmeimim aerodrome in Syria. © Dmitriy Vinogradov

Russia’s Sukhoi jets flew 15 sorties over Syria on Monday striking 10 Islamic State targets in various regions, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry. 20 tanks and 3 rocket launchers in Homs province near embattled Palmyra were destroyed,

“During the day, Sukhoi-34, Sukhoi-24M and Sukhoi-25 warplanes flew a total of 15 sorties from the Khmeimim airbase. Air strikes were delivered at ten targets of the Islamic State [IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL] group in Syria,” Igor Konashenkov, Russia’s Defense Ministry spokesman said in a statement on Monday.

A pair of Su-25Ms (NATO reporting name: Frogfoot) together with an Su-24 (NATO reporting name: Fencer) carried out strikes on two IS targets in the eastern part of Homs province near the city of Tadmur, he said.

“About 20 units of medium T-55 tanks, which were earlier seized by the militants from the Syrian army, have been destroyed [in the strikes],” as well as three multiple rocket launchers, he noted.

A video released by the ministry also showed a strike against an IS ammunition depot in Homs. The ministry explained: “Bright flashes confirm detonation of munitions caused by direct hits of air bombs. Thick smoke provides evidence of fire in the depot.”

The city Tadmur is located in an oasis in the middle of the Syrian Desert and stands about half a kilometer northeast of the ruins of the ancient city of Palmyra. The UNESCO protected cultural site was captured by IS in May. They have been gradually destroying archeological artifacts and structures since seizing the ancient city. On Sunday they blew up the Arch of Triumph, a centerpiece of the ancient ruins.

READ MORE: ISIS terrorists blow up iconic 2,000yo Arch of Triumph in Palmyra

US Central Command reported on Monday that the US-led coalition had conducted airstrikes near Palmyra with “inconclusive results.” :rotfl:

Russian Su-34 bombers destroyed IS headquarters and a command post in the Aleppo province, Konashenkov said on Monday, adding that there had been “direct hits” on structures housing field commanders in Dayr Hafir and al-Bab.

Some 30 IS military vehicles including tanks were destroyed in the forested area near the city of Idlib in northwest Syria, according to the ministry.


“We have irrefutable intelligence, including [intercepted] communications between the militants in the area, [proving] the destruction and damage of the terrorists’ armored vehicles,” Konashenkov said.

Russia launched its anti-IS operation in Syria on September 30 after a request from President Bashar Assad. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also expressed concern about the number of Russian extremists in the country.

On Saturday, three days into the operation, Russia’s Defense Ministry said that, based on Russian intelligence, the militants were fleeing the area which had been under their control. It also stated that the strikes have significantly reduced the terrorists’ combat capabilities.
Last edited by Philip on 06 Oct 2015 11:10, edited 1 time in total.

shaun
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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby shaun » 06 Oct 2015 11:07

RT is hitting hard very hard ....The western media outlets have now started quoting ( kinda rona -dhona )from syrian observatory for Human rights ( SOHR) which itself is a proxy of west about Russian bombardments killing civilians . what RT deed is , it tried to find out the director of SOHR , he was located to be staying in UK and avoided talking to the reporter citing that his and his family life in danger, upon more investigation , he was found to be in a 7 star hotel in the middle of some conference ( in some other country ) . When the RT reporter approached him for interview , he was surprised and tried to run away . He was pursued and after long 2 -3 hrs agreed for the interview after making some calls( may be his benefactors ) , he said , that the last time he was in Syria it was 2000 !!! and that he get his informations from his trusted sources in Syria . An arabic website was shown telling that from oct 1 and oct 5 some 27 aam syrians got killed due to strike by SAAF ( quoting SOHR) , the same news in english with another website tells the civilian casualties due to RuAF...!!

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Cain Marko » 06 Oct 2015 11:19

Singha wrote:If Isis survives the Chechen will want to again set their homeland on fire. Turkey, Georgia will gleefully allow their antics with NATO smugly in the background.


Would be interesting to see if putin allows kadirov too send done of his thugs too syria, they seemed too have effectively neutered the salafi rascals in chechnya

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 06 Oct 2015 11:27

^^ He wont , The Kodarov guy has the habbit of saying stupid things always ready to show his loyalty to Kremlin.

He said the same thing my men is ready to go to Ukraine in thousands during Ukraine crisis

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Philip » 06 Oct 2015 12:06

RT has been a major factor in the Russian renaissance in prestige.Its production is so slick and its anchors speak as well if not better than some Beeb announcers.What's impressive is that RT stays true to facts which are easily verifiable.Many years ago a US pres. ,Nixon I think was questioning the CIA about Castro and something that Castro said.Nixon asked the CIA boss if it was true."Yes" he replied,"Castro never lies!" If RT remains true to facts,it will win over more western audiences who already are questioning their media.The BBC was just caught lying again a few days ago,showing a volcano erupting,actually using eruption footage footage from other volcanoes! RT's videoclips of the Russian air attacks are the equiv of CNN's Baghdad clips during GW1.

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/317615-us-me ... ropaganda/
Media World: "Wag the dog" is not a movie, it's reality
Derek Monroe

Published time: 4 Oct, 2015 16:38
© Gary Hershorn

On the morning of Oct 3, people in the western hemisphere awoke to news of the US bombing of a hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan, which resulted in the death of 22 people including 12 staff of Medicine Sans Frontiers, a French NGO.

National Public Radio (NPR), America's premiere radio organization, announced that the US military "may" have bombed the Afghan hospital and the resulting casualties "may" have resulted in collateral damage. This despite the fact that it had already been confirmed on the ground by foreign media. There was also the UN official's declaration that if the attack was intentional it will be regarded as a war crime.

The careful recitation of Pentagon's talking points signifies something bigger than it appears at first glance. Suddenly, reports of civilian casualties and confirmed "unconfirmed" reports of Russian airstrikes on US allied "Free Syrian Army" dominated the US airwaves. Strangely enough, missing are the reports coming out Syria and Turkey about the massive wave of dislocation caused by the Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda, some of which were equipped courtesy of US taxpayers and facilitated by strategic choices made by the Pentagon.

According to the recent congressional hearings that were buried as quickly as they came out, the $500 million spent on the FSA are as missing as the army it was supposed to train. However, a few weeks back there was a very prescriptive narrative of unfolding events at Palmyra, Syria where the lamentations over the destruction of Roman ruins took precedent over its population and the carnage visited upon them. There was virtually no mention of the concentration of IS forces three days before the attack and the US-backed coalition's premeditated refusal to bomb it.

Palmyra would have been saved, and the devastation that followed avoided. The striking contrast with Libya's Benghazi air attack that stopped Gaddafi's armor a few years earlier was not lost on people who followed the situation as it developed. It appears the West has already decided genocidal and ruthless IS a better alternative than the authoritarian and brutal Assad regime, which happened to be Russia's ally. However, looking at the US media coverage one enters a world of parallel reality where the perception ruled by misinformation and contextual omission is everything.
Fires burn in part of the MSF hospital in the Afghan city of Kunduz after it was hit by an air strike © MSF

Just as Putin listed his intention to fight IS, the storm of critical coverage erupted into blaming Russia for the current situation in Syria. This is the world where the Arab Spring, both Iraq wars, Libya, Afghanistan and even 9/11 never happened. As the mainstream commercial media pontificates on the meaning of the America's loss of supremacy in the region, the US public, i.e. non-commercial media, including the NPR, went into analyzing the news to arrive at the forgone conclusion that one country's anti-terrorist action is another one's aggressive and civilian-casualties-filled intervention.

In this mold, the modus operandi is based on inviting guests from thought farms that include a wide variety of outfits from Brookings to the Orwellian-sounding Foundation for Defense of Democracies (ex-CIA director R. James Woolsey's project). Add the amazing unity of thought to the mix of preconceived notions and you have a product worth selling. The NPR is especially good at this as the list of its invited guests come from institutions that almost all have at one point received or receive funding from Ford, Gates, Rockefeller foundations, as well as front and interest groups representing in many cases corporations that have business interests in the region.

Naturally, none of that is always disclosed to the listeners. Ironically, more often than not the "experts" are the very people who worked at the administrations of Bill Clinton, George H.W Bush, George W. Bush and Barack Obama and who in many cases rooted for Afghani and Iraqi adventurism from the beginning. Furthermore, it is even more ironic that these are the same "arbiters of truth" now as they were then. The supposed analysis based on new and improved "curveball" testimonies is next presented in form of a legal-like case before the jury of watchers/listeners as each side is supposed to present its own conclusions while not letting the facts get in a way of good story.
Russian service personnel at Khmeimim air base © Dmitry Vinogradov
Russian service personnel at Khmeimim air base © Dmitry Vinogradov / RIA Novosti

Last week, the NPR-affiliated and Boston-based WBUR's On Point program featured two experts who more less agreed on Russian culpability in Syria without offering any tangible outcome beyond the tired rhetoric of “Assad must go and the situation will work itself out politically afterwards." The idea of political settlement, i.e. negotiations with terrorists whose Islamofascist Caliphate precludes existence of civilized order, is not only absurd; it is a slap in the face to the American families who lost loved ones in the 9/11 attacks. It is also a cynical ploy to deflect any responsibility for genocidal carnage that would result in Assad's fall as the zero-sum game scenario would undoubtedly unfold due to the wishes of our State Dept. planners and strategists.

When I called the On Point program several times in the past and presented my views contrary to their "expert" presentation, I was always put on long hold and subsequently disconnected. The next time around, however, I was able to call in and present my view under an alias, stating that contrary to the presented narrative the issue in Syria did not start with quelling of the demonstration in Daraa in 2011, as presented, but around 2005 when the US decided on policy for regime change. I quoted several WikiLeaks documents to prove the point. The producer who took the call instructed me to leave out this info as not to challenge the guests and instead pose a question that can be answered within a framework of the program. I went ahead and quoted the documents anyway and as it happens the response was nonsense.

The style of non-confrontation, while keeping the integrity of the presented narrative, is a hallmark of NPR as in the end the brand is more important than the substance it is made of. Ironically, despite many challenges in spinning and manipulating the facts, the methodology of inviting people who discredited themselves in the past (Iraq, Afghanistan, WMDs) and were wrong then and now is alive and well. It is grotesque to the point of being unbelievable.
National Public Radio logo

On Sept 28, WBUR's "Here and Now" host Robyn Young in outrage and disbelief over Russia's establishment of an intelligence office in Baghdad. She reacted by announcing on the air that this should not have happened as: "I thought Iraq was ours..." The segment has since been removed and replaced with a different interview, making it sound like something from the Soviet Union's playbook. And overall this is the organization that asks its listening public for contributions.

According to the last available report by Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting (F.A.I.R) from 2004, over 80 percent of NPR reporting staff came from news companies such as New York Times, Washington Post and Wall St Journal. This cultural characteristic is reflected in a very narrow expertise based on previous conditioning and it ushered the new era of generalist "excellence". That means a skill set that is good enough at everything and excellent at nothing. The cultural and organizational bias that was transplanted with migration of the corporate mindset is now permeating the NPR as it has been assimilated into prevailing Washingtonian elitist worldview on economy, society and politics.

Thus listening to the stuff produced by NPR in the Beltway, New York and Boston produces a sensation of complete disconnect to what Americans are feeling and expect in their news, resulting into migration to the internet based platforms. Increasingly they want the unvarnished truth. Instead the revolving door of NPR CEOs that hailed from corporate sector, New York Times, Voice of America (government funded propaganda) and the latest in commercial television is indicative of NPR's split personality and reduction of its abilities and capabilities to a mere propaganda tool.

The business of propaganda masquerading as news is lucrative, especially when one doing it is on the inside track. According to the last IRS fiscal year disclosure (ending 9/30/2014), NPR's CEO makes more than the US president with overall compensation listed at $756,575. Other "stars" of the NPR universe are also well paid, including its flagship morning program's Steve Inskeep at $405,818, Michelle Norris at $349,177, Robert Siegel at $409,689 and Scott Simon, who is able to pull a cool $389,609. All are working the 40-hour week as listed on the IRS disclosure form to which most of contributing listeners can relate to although on quite a different pay scale, to say the least.
© Jason Reed

The money has been a honey trail of the NPR game since its visibly less well-off listening public is regularly harassed by its affiliated stations for money. In Chicago, begging for money is getting increasingly aggressive and grotesque making, it sound like some type of on the air BINGO game punctuated with pledges and featuring prizes big and small. This forced begging and humiliation of the presenters and reporters "pitching-in" to this sorry spectacle of desperation is truly sad. It resembles a relationship between McDonalds and its franchisees while the dollar menu of ideas is being constantly updated for a higher price bracket that will be picked up by corporate donors. Slogans such as $5 Friday bring carnival idiot-like qualities to the game called listener and increasingly corporate supported radio which is probably not surprising given NPR's largest donation given by the fortune created by the Happy Meal.

The self-sustained propaganda machine of pyramid proportions has its up and downs as it was caught with its pants down last year in yet another scandal. This raises more than just the question of transparency, but NPR's real purpose. Why is the web of influencers and influenced not disclosed? Why doesn't it mention personal relationships of its staff with the establishment it is supposed to cover and not serve?

During the Iraq invasion, for example, its chief reporter in Baghdad was Anne Garrels, who also happened to be a spouse of a CIA operative. In 2007, the NPR came under criticism after Garrels used information that was obtained by torture for her story. During the interview with her interpreter/translator, it was even stated that the Iraqi authorities suspected her to work for the CIA.

However, the most blatant conflict of interest that is tolerated comes in shape of NPR analyst Cokie Roberts. In the 1980s, she covered Guatemala during a period of widespread human rights violations by the US-supported military junta. During an interview with Diana Ortiz, a nun who worked with the poor and was subsequently kidnapped, raped and tortured, Roberts contested the nun's version of events that took place. Ortiz alleged that an American was among her tormentors and later her version of events prevailed in court in a lawsuit against a Guatemalan general she held responsible for her treatment.

Roberts also came out strongly in favor of the Trans Pacific Partnership, despite the fact that it will hurt many working families in the US. It was later revealed that Patton Boggs, Washington DC based lobbying and law firm run by her brother Tom Boggs, was hired by the Guatemalan government to promote a positive image of the country. Ditto with the TPP, as Patton Boggs was one of the chief lobbying groups pushing for it. Ms Roberts goes on producing her 4-minute weekly segments for the NPR to this day as if nothing ever happened.

The bias in the NPR "reporting" goes beyond dollars and cents as it is infused with ideology as well. In 2012 in the wake of destruction by Hurricane Sandy, the NPR programming featured a "common sense" solution to the shortages of commodities such as gasoline that affected the stricken public. "Make gas $25 a gallon and the lines will automatically disappear" was the ex-cathedra view of its invited economic "experts" whose views resonate with increasingly elitist top NPR echelon.

At the same time radio stations that broadcast the mind numbing pseudo-science as often referred to on NPR's "Hidden Brain" segment, are increasingly employing unpaid interns for its everyday tasks. As only the rich can afford to be an unpaid intern in New York, Boston or Washington, the culture of elitism lives on and decides what is good for the unwashed listening masses.

On the economic front the NPR's corporate donor class also has influence on how the issues are covered when it comes to corporate scandals as well. The daily unrelenting push to make Volkswagen a daily pinata pales in comparison with coverage of economic issues that deserve not only a balanced and proportional coverage but basic fairness.

It is amazing that VW gets a bazooka treatment in both time and scope of reporting while the fraud perpetrated by GM - one of the NPR's biggest donors - in its ignition switch-gate was given very shy coverage regardless of the fact that it cost 124 lives. At the same time, the happy team at NPR's own "Planet Money" keeps on rolling in a framework of peddling corporate messaging to idiots, while its own questionable past and record doesn't seem to present any challenges going forward or even backward.

Nothing represents history of manipulation of the US media better than a quote from great American journalist A.J. Liebling stating that: "freedom of the press is guaranteed only to those who own one."

Americans are increasingly looking for answers and explanations outside of the North American mainstream media mirage that has only served itself to their detriment. As for National Propaganda Radio, as many have derisively come to call the NPR, it needs to look to no further than Norway in 2017 as it ends the FM broadcasting.

Silence is better than the lies.

NPR in Washington declined a request for an interview regarding its programming.
WBUR in Boston did not return repeated requests for an interview about its programming.


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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 06 Oct 2015 12:35

https://www.rt.com/news/317720-terroris ... irstrikes/

“At least 3,000 militants from Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), al-Nusra and Jaish al-Yarmouk have fled to Jordan. They are afraid of the Syrian army having stepped up activities on all fronts and of Russian airstrikes,” the RIA source said.


“Russian airstrikes have led to strong statements from terrorist groups and their backers. At the same time terrorist groups said nothing when the US-led coalition launched its operation,” he said. He also added that the US airstrikes against the IS are not effective as “the coalition wants terrorists to stay in Syria as long as possible”.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 06 Oct 2015 12:38

Singha wrote:https://www.rt.com/news/317720-terrorists-leaving-syria-airstrikes/

“At least 3,000 militants from Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), al-Nusra and Jaish al-Yarmouk have fled to Jordan. They are afraid of the Syrian army having stepped up activities on all fronts and of Russian airstrikes,” the RIA source said.


“Russian airstrikes have led to strong statements from terrorist groups and their backers. At the same time terrorist groups said nothing when the US-led coalition launched its operation,” he said. He also added that the US airstrikes against the IS are not effective as “the coalition wants terrorists to stay in Syria as long as possible”.


Yes thats the strange thing , 5 days of strike and AL Jazeera says all the seperatist has formed a coilation to oppose the Russian and fight with them , Never hear any response from these groups in the 1 year of US bombing :lol:

Philip
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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Philip » 06 Oct 2015 12:55

It was all "kabuki" :rotfl: Suddenly,a coalition of anti-Assad forces emerges a la PC Sorcar.IT looks like there was much war profiteering by western arms majors in the Syrian conflict with this charade of attacking ISIS!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... Syria.html
Putin pulls the strings in Ukraine and Syria - leaving western powers flat-footed
As Russia hots up its war in Syria, the Kremlin has moved to de-escalate the war in Ukraine in a bid to quietly undermine Europe's resolve on economic sanctions

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a meeting with members of the Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights at the Kremlin
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a meeting with members of the Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights at the Kremlin Photo: REUTERS/Yuri Kochetkov

By Peter Foster, Europe Editor

8:16PM BST 01 Oct 2015

Kremlinology has always been an inexact science, but it is surely no coincidence that as Moscow moved to intensify its new war in Syria on Thursday, its proxies were moving to rapidly de-escalate the old one in Ukraine.

As Russian jets pounded rebel positions in Syria to prop up the regime of Bashar al-Assad, in Ukraine Russian-backed separatist rebel leaders were agreeing to pull back their heavy weapons while predicting “the end of the war” was in sight.

A video released on YouTube claimed to show Russian air-raids targeting the ruins of al-Rabiyah and Shinsharah near Kafranbel - Syria warA video released on YouTube claimed to show Russian air-raids targeting the ruins of al-Rabiyah and Shinsharah near Kafranbel Photo: YouTube

Not for the first time in recent years Vladimir Putin’s preparedness to act – to use force in the prosecution of his strategic goals first in Crimea, then in Syria – has left western powers looking reactive and flat-footed.

In Syria, Mr Putin’s strategy now looks increasingly clear. Russian strikes have not targeted Islamic State positions as promised, but instead focussed on attacking the non-isil rebel elements that this year have posed the greatest threat to regime forces.

Supported by Russian air power and Iranian-backed militias, the Kremlin apparently aspires to turn Syria’s internecine conflict into a two-front war between the Assad regime and Isil.

For now the West condemns Russia’s unilateral action, but perhaps Mr Putin already foresees the day when the opportunity to defeat Isil - with Russia as the indispensable power-broker – forces western powers to take a more pragmatic approach.

And with all eyes drawn to Mr Putin's newly assertive policy in Syria, Russia has taken the opportunity to follow through with the de-escalation of the Ukraine crisis that has been evident in recent months.

The Russian "retreat" receives no air-time on local television, but Moscow now appears ready to accept a frozen peace, after side-lining hardline separatists in favour of more pliant rebels and eschewing a summer offensive.

Both the Pro-Russian (pictured) and Ukrainian forces have agreed to the tentative ceasefirePro Russian troops in eastern Ukraine in late September Photo: EPA

When Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko, the president of Ukraine, meet in Paris on Friday for talks on ending the war, the Russian leader will be able to play the role of peacemaker and – for as long as it suits him – mean it.

Western officials are at pains to point out that the agreement to pull back the tanks and mortars is only a “first step” and that there remains “a long way to go” before the Minsk agreement can be considered to have been fully implemented.

Before sanctions can be lifted, diplomats say, the rebels must complete negotiations to allow free and fair elections and – the acid test of whether Mr Putin really intends to respect Ukraine territorial integrity – hand back control of rebel-controlled borders to Kiev.

On paper, these are the non-negotiable requirements before lifting the economic sanctions that are starting to bite in Russia, where wages are reportedly down 10 per cent over the last year and the economy is reeling from a crash in world oil prices.

For now, the West is determined to hold that line on sanctions, but Mr Putin perhaps bets that if in a years’ time all is quiet on the Eastern Front and Isil are on the defensive in Syria, then there again the West may be persuaded to take a more "pragmatic" approach.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby deejay » 06 Oct 2015 13:14

Y. Kanan wrote:
The more big players that join in, the more likely that Turkey, Israel or KSA will behave themselves. Right now it's basically "everybody gang up on Russia" which makes it more likely one of these countries (or the US itself) will trigger a violent confrontation with Russian forces or even start WW3. These jokers are getting way too cocky,mostly because of the perception that Russia stands alone, isolated and without friends. If India and China were both deployed in force, the Turks\Saudis\Americans would think twice before starting something. It would add legitimacy to the operation because it would now be a truly multi-national effort involving the three big players (Russia\China\India). The US and pals would be far less likely to supply the bad guys with SAM's, if there were Indian and Chinese aircraft flying missions instead of just Russians.

Russia + India + China + Iran + Iraq + Syria makes for a pretty intimidating coalition. Enough to make even the new Axis of Evil (US\GCC\Turkey) think twice. If we stand together, we can make history. This alliance has the potential to bring about several key events:

-Force Pakistan to do the Saudi's bidding and piss off China, or piss off the Saudi's by failing to come to their aid. Either way Pakistan loses.
-Pry China away from Pakistan and into the Russo-Indian camp
-Destabilize Saudi Arabia and possibly create a Shia-Sunni civil war within that country. A weak Saudi can't bankroll Pakistan or stir up as much trouble in India.
-Firmly cement Iran, Iraq and Syria as staunch allies and arms customers for Russia, India and China
-Keep legions of jihadis tied up fighting an endless war against the Shia govts of Syria and Iraq. Less trouble for us.
-Halt the endless march of Sunni militancy. Keep them tied up in the ME instead of letting them spread to Central Asia and India.

There will never be a convenient time to remake the world order. Sometimes you have to take risks. Playing it safe will only harm our interests in the long run.


Yes, it makes for an intimidating coalition. It will surely get NATO in a twist and will instantly change this world in to a Bi-Polar geopolitical entity. Have the Russians invited us? Do they want us there?

As much as I have these sudden urges to personally get into the fight with the ISIS scums, a pragmatic assessment on should we join this coalition (or any coalition) until we know:
a) What is the agenda / goals / aims / objectives of the coalition
b) Is it what we want or is it in sync with our international goals
c) Are we sure that we can take care of the security of our people in India or abroad as a consequence of our action (not everybody but the majority)
d) Do we have the military capability to deploy in such action far off and still deter ChiPak
e) Can we handle the economic cost
f) Exit plan from such an engagement

These are a few that come to mind but I am sure there are many more major & minor points over and above those mentioned. As a nation we have not been expeditionary in military terms. A change in our approach has to have solid grounds. While we may appear cautious but why should we get involved in a fight we did not start and where we are not yet to clear as to who actually are the fronts and behinds of this ISIS?

Singha
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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 06 Oct 2015 13:38

a russian jounro or adventurer of a sort took a trip in a syrian tank in the ruins of some syrian city...may 2015...a joint mission with tanks and a few IFVs.

as you can see its just piles of rubble like stalingrad, choking dust that makes optics useless and plenty of hiding places for islamist rebels with LAW weapons.

there is no point in such missions other than showing some presence, one might get better results by heavy artillery barrages. the tanks take some hits but manage to work their way out of the dust.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-WQ6lgZ9Aw

infantry to act as spotters and heavy co-ordinated artillery fires, and few helicopter gunships or armed drones are probably best soln for war in such ruins. tanks might be able to put precision fire if the target is in line of sight at the edges of towns but should not be wandering the narrow streets blindly like this.


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