The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

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habal
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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 20 Oct 2015 18:20

another speculation that aleppo's water plant was targeted to spread cholera, which is abundant in euphrates water. Cholera epidemic outbreak will create massive wave of refugees into Turkey border and thus a call for suspension of bombardment can be made by USA and allies in that situation.

The current attack, coinciding with both the refugee crisis in Europe and the large scale military operations that are cleansing Aleppo Province of coalition backed “moderate terrorists,” is in all probability what brought the Pentagon to the point of taking out Aleppo’s water purification facilities. America’s goal was to start a cholera epidemic in one of the largest cities in the Middle East, driving tens of thousands of refugees into the middle of a massive military operation against terror groups the Pentagon has been playing with for some time.


Thus far, however, the Pentagon plan has been a failure. Were it more successful, up to 100,000 refugees may have fled into Hatay Province, Turkey, infecting up to a million more there in a region clogged with refugees.

You see, cholera is a “gift that keeps on giving,” a massively infectious disease. A dozen cholera patients can overburden any clinic or even regional hospital. A dozen cholera carriers can, within days and under the right conditions, war and refugees for instance, recreate conditions not seen since the Middle Ages.


Coinciding with the America attack has been a total blackout of all reports from the region, including Twitter and Facebook postings, a total cleansing of all reports of the American bombing with the exception of Veterans Today, TASS and Russia Today. Even the statements of President Putin, and he mentions the American attack on 3 occasions, are banned from all western press and cleansed from the internet.

The Pentagon plan is specifically biological warfare and not the first time it has been used in Syria. The Free Syrian Army, with both Israeli and American special operations advisors with every unit, has targeted water supplies across Syria, particularly Damascus.

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/10/18 ... fare-plan/

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby deejay » 20 Oct 2015 18:42

Bhurishrava wrote:Here is something that I found out -

"Syrian Observatory for human rights" which is quoted by all western media sources to create headlines is run by one person. Its run from a two bedroom apartment from Coventry.
The man himself visited Syria last in 2000. :eek:

The west is really making a laughing stock of itself.

https://www.rt.com/news/317813-sohr-visit-syria-long/
https://www.rt.com/news/317372-nimrod-k ... servatory/


For those with patience wanting to study western regime change tricks, this article talks of it all; PR campaigns, propaganda, shady financial deals.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... he-talking


Nice post Bhurishrava ji.

In that Gaurdian link there is brief about the Syrian National Council and its "spokesperson" Bassma Kodmani. Something about her deserves our attention, stories similar to that are being orchestrated at home -

This year was Kodmani's second Bilderberg. At the 2008 conference, Kodmani was listed as French; by 2012, her Frenchness had fallen away and she was listed simply as "international" – her homeland had become the world of international relations.

Back a few years, in 2005, Kodmani was working for the Ford Foundation in Cairo, where she was director of their governance and international co-operation programme. The Ford Foundation is a vast organisation, headquartered in New York, and Kodmani was already fairly senior. But she was about to jump up a league.


Attention people, these Foundation types are like model "T" - Ubiquitous and Cheap

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Sid » 20 Oct 2015 18:48

habal wrote:another speculation that aleppo's water plant was targeted to spread cholera, which is abundant in euphrates water. Cholera epidemic outbreak will create massive wave of refugees into Turkey border and thus a call for suspension of bombardment can be made by USA and allies in that situation.

The current attack, coinciding with both the refugee crisis in Europe and the large scale military operations that are cleansing Aleppo Province of coalition backed “moderate terrorists,” is in all probability what brought the Pentagon to the point of taking out Aleppo’s water purification facilities. America’s goal was to start a cholera epidemic in one of the largest cities in the Middle East, driving tens of thousands of refugees into the middle of a massive military operation against terror groups the Pentagon has been playing with for some time.


Thus far, however, the Pentagon plan has been a failure. Were it more successful, up to 100,000 refugees may have fled into Hatay Province, Turkey, infecting up to a million more there in a region clogged with refugees.

You see, cholera is a “gift that keeps on giving,” a massively infectious disease. A dozen cholera patients can overburden any clinic or even regional hospital. A dozen cholera carriers can, within days and under the right conditions, war and refugees for instance, recreate conditions not seen since the Middle Ages.


Coinciding with the America attack has been a total blackout of all reports from the region, including Twitter and Facebook postings, a total cleansing of all reports of the American bombing with the exception of Veterans Today, TASS and Russia Today. Even the statements of President Putin, and he mentions the American attack on 3 occasions, are banned from all western press and cleansed from the internet.

The Pentagon plan is specifically biological warfare and not the first time it has been used in Syria. The Free Syrian Army, with both Israeli and American special operations advisors with every unit, has targeted water supplies across Syria, particularly Damascus.

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/10/18 ... fare-plan/


Habal dude, why spread Alex Jones type of cowspiracy. Porkies stuck with his kind and see where their mental health is right now.

In today's world its still hard to differentiate between legit and planted news, but if something smells like a cow dung it definitely will taste like it.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 20 Oct 2015 19:03

Sid, there are million plus people's still in Aleppo who depend upon 1-hour /day water supply with power generated from this power plant. This 1 million people are mainly civilians with 5000 IS/Nusra types in midst of them at best. Doesn't it remind you of Madeleine Albright's 1 million Iraqi children as collateral gambit.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Sid » 20 Oct 2015 19:30

habal, my comment is based on reading your posts form last 4 pages. Not judging, but all quoted references seems shady.

But I do agree on plight of people stuck in this dirty war. Instigators of this war will reap what they are sowing today.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Sid » 20 Oct 2015 19:36

deejay wrote:
Bhurishrava wrote:Here is something that I found out -

"Syrian Observatory for human rights" which is quoted by all western media sources to create headlines is run by one person. Its run from a two bedroom apartment from Coventry.
The man himself visited Syria last in 2000. :eek:

The west is really making a laughing stock of itself.

https://www.rt.com/news/317813-sohr-visit-syria-long/
https://www.rt.com/news/317372-nimrod-k ... servatory/


For those with patience wanting to study western regime change tricks, this article talks of it all; PR campaigns, propaganda, shady financial deals.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... he-talking


Nice post Bhurishrava ji.


This Gurdian link shared by Bhurishrava is a masterpiece of investigative journalism.

Makes you wonder why Europeans allow shelters to all aggrieved junta (for exp anti-India folks in London/Canada/etc) only to used against you one day when your chips are down. Some of these policymakers/think-tanks (i.e. Bilderberg Group) makes plans which takes decades to execute.

If such a chess game is initiated against India, can we counter it?

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby panduranghari » 20 Oct 2015 19:58

:D
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/318753-mosco ... war-syria/
History may eventually decide the ‘New World Order’ started on September 28, when Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama had a 90-minute face off at the UN in New York.

Irrespective of spin – “productive” according to the White House, “tense” according to a source close to the Kremlin – facts on the ground accumulated almost immediately.

Putin did press Obama for the US to join Russia in a real grand coalition bent on smashing ISIS/ISIL/Daesh. The Obama administration, once again, relented. I detailed here what happened next: an earth-shattering game-changer in the ‘New Great Game’ in Eurasia, straight out of the Caspian Sea, that caught the acronym fest of US intelligence – not to mention the Pentagon - completely off-guard.

So this was Putin’s first message to Washington, and the Pentagon/NATO combo in particular; your fancy ideas of stationing tactical nuclear weapons or expanding missile defense to Eastern Europe, or even Asia-Pacific, are just a mirage. Our cruise missiles are capable of wreaking real effective havoc; and soon, as this piece argues, there will be more hypersonic, high-precision long-range missiles added to the mix.

Old habits don’t die hard – they remain in a coma forever. The Pentagon’s response to the facts launched from the Caspian Sea was to conduct an airdrop of light weapons to “a select group of vetted leaders and their units,” as in those famously non-existent Syrian “moderate rebels.” The weapons will inevitably be captured by assorted Salafi-jihadi goon outfits in no time.

Then the British government was forced to deny a Murdoch-controlled Sunday Times “report” that British Tornadoes in Syria are now armed with air-to-air missiles to counter potential Russian aerial “attacks.”

And to top it off, the proverbial “military experts” infesting US corporate media started spinning that we are only 30 seconds from World War III.
The Glazyev nuclear plan

A still apoplectic Pentagon will take time to absorb the new military facts on the Syrian ground – and skies. That will add to the utter desperation displayed by the ‘Masters of the Universe’ in the Washington/Wall Street axis – itching to break the China-Russia strategic partnership by all means necessary. Quite a feat when the Pentagon is still fighting World War II, with its weapons, ships and monster aircraft carriers displayed as sitting ducks against Russia’s new batch of missiles.

But then there’s also Putin’s second – silent - message to Washington, which didn’t even have to be delivered in person to Obama. US intel though may have a hint about it, as they closely follow Russian media.

It’s about Sergey Glazyev’s (presidential aide) plan for Russia’s immediate economic future here is a summary of the plan, in Russian. The plan was formally proposed to Russia’s Security Council. Here is a very good summary on how Russia’s Security Council works.

There are at least three absolutely key points in Glazyev’s plan. We may summarize them like this:

If the emerging trend of freezing private assets of Russian legal entities and individuals continues, Russia should consider full or a partial moratorium on the servicing of loans and investment from the countries involved in the freezing.
The amount of foreign currency assets of the Russian Federation located in the jurisdiction of NATO countries accounts to more than $1.2 trillion, including short-term debt of about $800 billion. Their freeze may be partially offset by retaliation against NATO assets in Russia, which amounts to $1.1 trillion, including over $400 billion long-term. So this threat would be neutralized if Russian monetary authorities organized a timely withdrawal of Russian short-term assets in the US and the EU.
Glazyev is adamant that the Russian Central Bank continues to serve the interests of foreign capital – as in the financial powers in London and New York. He contends that the high interest rates practiced by the Russian Central Bank led Russian oligarchs to borrow more cheaply from the West, making the Russian economy dependent, a debt trap which the West used to slowly squeeze Russia. Then the rigged Western oil and ruble collapse increased the pressure as debt service in ruble cost and interest doubled.



So what Glazyev proposes, essentially, is that Moscow must gain total control of its Central Bank, preventing speculators to move their credit around for non-productive purposes; Moscow should also establish currency controls; and must create a central organization of technological research to replace the loss of Western technology, imitating the US methodology of rolling out from its centralized military research those technologies that can be commercialized for the consumer market.

The fact is Russia has lost access to Western credit and cannot roll over its debt with the creditors. So Russia will have to pay the principle and the interest as it comes due. That is a trillion dollars plus interest. Russia also cannot import anything from the West without paying double for it. So arguably the country may be now in the very position it will be if Moscow opts for default. Thus, Russia would have nothing to lose by a default - as the damage is already done.
A shock to the system

Essentially, once again, a Russian default on a $1 trillion-plus debt to private Western parties remains a possible scenario discussed at the highest level – assuming Washington will persist in its anti-Russia demonization campaign.

It’s clear the squeeze Russia is feeling has less to do with sanctions than the grip maintained by Western financial powers over the Russian Central Bank. The Russian Central Bank did create a debt trap by maintaining high interest rates in Russia while the West was lending at low interest rates.

Needless to add, such a default, if it ever happened, would collapse the entire Western financial system.

One should never forget the Big Picture; the Syria/Ukraine/sanctions saga runs in parallel to Russia-China and closer BRICS integration shifting the balance of geopolitical power. For the ‘Masters of the Universe’, this is beyond anathema. Enter, for instance, the use of cash settlement through their Wall Street proxies to raise the A shares of China to hysterical highs and then try to crash their entire stock market by a reverse cash settlement rig as in 1987.

China is moving toward their own SWIFT payment system, not to mention a whole new Chinese-led set of international institutions independent of US control. Russia, for its part, recently passed a bill that would allow the seizing of foreign assets if Russian assets in the West are seized. As Glazyev pointed out, investment in Russia by the West are more or less equivalent to investments of Russia in the West.

The ‘Masters of the Universe’ may keep insisting on using financial weapons of mass destruction. Russia, silently and with a few key facts in the Caspian Sea, is letting them know it’s ready for whatever scenario they can come up with.

A less apocalyptic ending may be healthy. So here’s a popular joke in Moscow nowadays, as told by William Engdahl...

Putin is back in the Kremlin after his meeting with Obama in New York. He tells an aide he invited Obama for a game of chess. And then he tells it how it works: “It’s like playing with a pigeon. First it knocks over all the pieces, then it shits on the board and finally struts around like it won.”


The Russian Bear with Putin on its back is charging into wall street and plans to decimate the US economy.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 20 Oct 2015 20:14

well I suppose this will enthuse the Rus to work hard on developing hypersonic brahmos2, PGS and other base technologies.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Paul » 20 Oct 2015 21:21

Russians will be encouraging Chetnik detachments from Serbia and also probably Armenians/unemployed Greeks to join up as volunteers to get free experience.

Serbians need no prompting to take on Wahabis as they have old scores to settle from Bosnia days. They even fought for Qaddafi as volunteers against NATO forces.

Syria Looks like a greenfield ERP implementation in a Fortune 100 co in the 90s where of opportunities abounded for FOB H1Bs nd retired veterans to gain invaluable combat experience
Last edited by Paul on 20 Oct 2015 21:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby chetak » 20 Oct 2015 21:24

Sid wrote:
deejay wrote:
{quote="Bhurishrava"}Here is something that I found out -

"Syrian Observatory for human rights" which is quoted by all western media sources to create headlines is run by one person. Its run from a two bedroom apartment from Coventry.
The man himself visited Syria last in 2000. :eek:

The west is really making a laughing stock of itself.

https://www.rt.com/news/317813-sohr-visit-syria-long/
https://www.rt.com/news/317372-nimrod-k ... servatory/


For those with patience wanting to study western regime change tricks, this article talks of it all; PR campaigns, propaganda, shady financial deals.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... he-talking{/quote}

Nice post Bhurishrava ji.


This Gurdian link shared by Bhurishrava is a masterpiece of investigative journalism.

Makes you wonder why Europeans allow shelters to all aggrieved junta (for exp anti-India folks in London/Canada/etc) only to used against you one day when your chips are down. Some of these policymakers/think-tanks (i.e. Bilderberg Group) makes plans which takes decades to execute.

If such a chess game is initiated against India, can we counter it?



who is to say that such a game has not already been initiated against India??

certain CMs, ex NAC members and judiciary are complicit, the slick ease with which teesta's bail application was considered by the SC and that too by multi judge benches, is a serious indicator that all is not well.

The scorched earth policy that was adopted by the congis, now mercifully negated by the steeply fallen petroleum prices, the very very selective targeting of Modi by forces that are demonstrably hostile to the very idea of India, the biased and selective reportage of the old anti Modi DDM, which was actually expecting a violent backlash but Modi chose to play it otherwise, the pointed and continuous efforts to stir up minority violence and play the victim card.

Modi should have moved against the DDM, especially the few loudmouth "spearheads" who now consider themselves invincible. He may well start with rapepal and runditv's roys' mari et femme

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 20 Oct 2015 22:15

Su-30 intercepts drone


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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Sid » 20 Oct 2015 22:20

^^
Yes, that's true. Even I as wondering the same about sudden spurt in minority violence. But alas, since we some democracy there is only so much that you can do by rules.

Catch a DDM, it will become a scandal for actions against free media/speech.
Catch a Congi, it will become a scandal for actions against opposition party trying to impose emergency.

And once snowball will start rolling, all of US and Europe will jump in to share their concern with their support for weak and oppressed.

Its a game designed to be unwinnable.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby vishvak » 21 Oct 2015 00:07

In Syria, religious places where ISIL store their weapons are NOT bombed - even though ISIL themselves do not mind blowing up lesser green or even kuffr places of worship. This must need a pliant majority that can ignore all the genocide, slavery, beheadings etc and target minorities without weapons/protection from air/land and propaganda tools. One thing to note is that secularism, and secularists, are totally absent in Syria for some reason although not many kufr/heathen/pagan remain anymore!

The worst part is total rout of minorities (Yazid) who are tortured very openly - through genocide and also slavery, and face violence even in European camps for immigrants in cases of violence.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 21 Oct 2015 00:27

Attention people, these Foundation types are like model "T" - Ubiquitous and Cheap

Not to mention that their back seats are available for rent by the minute.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Karan M » 21 Oct 2015 03:10

Yagnasri wrote:
Singha wrote:Russia must be having a ample boneyard of serviceable tanks and BMPs, these could be shipped via the black sea to replace and build up numbers. they also desperately need old school massed artillery with ample ammo.


But who will operate them sir? Is there any trained people in Syria? All said and done I am sure Russia also do not want to give too much to people presently in power in Syria and Iran as they are also Muslims.


Syrian Army core remains professional and dedicated. Russia doesn't care about working with muslims. As long as they are (russian) sarkari muslims.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 21 Oct 2015 06:30

Reuters:
Russian air strikes in Syria's Latakia province killed a rebel commander and four other fighters from a group armed by President Bashar al-Assad's foreign enemies, a spokesman for the group said on Tuesday. The attack on Monday evening marked the third time Russian war planes have targeted the First Coastal Division group since Moscow began its air strikes in support of President Bashar al-Assad on Sept. 30, the group's spokesman Fadi Ahmad said. He said a further 15 civilians Moderate US-taxpayer-funded Terrorists had been killed in the air strike in Jabal Akrad, a rural, mountainous area in the province. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights earlier put the death toll at 45 rebels and civilians.

The First Coastal Division is one of several groups that have received foreign military support including U.S.-made anti-tank missiles, the most potent weapon in the rebels' arsenal.

The group, which fights under the umbrella of the "Free Syrian Army", confirmed the death of its chief of staff, Basil Zamo, formerly a captain in the Syrian military.
Ahmad said a fighter trained in the use of the anti-tank TOW missiles had also been killed. The Russian jets had struck one of the group's headquarters, and then struck the same target again after rescue workers had arrived on the scene.

[url=https://twitter.com/LinaArabii?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author]Lina Arabi ‏@LinaArabii 2h2 hours ago[/url] (Link Contains Video)

US senate discuss creating safe-zones for rebels in #Syria & using refugees as human shields against Russian strikes

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 07:34

Story image for syria from The Guardian
Canada to end airstrikes in Syria and Iraq, new prime minister ...
The Guardian-3 hours ago
Canadian Liberal prime minister designate Justin Trudeau has confirmed that Canada will withdraw its fighter jets from the US-led mission ...

---
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/ ... YO20151020

At least three Russians fighting alongside Syrian government forces were killed and several more wounded when a shell hit their position in the coastal province of Latakia, a senior pro-government military source said on Tuesday.

If confirmed, the deaths which occurred on Monday night would be the first known incidence of Russians being killed in Syria since Moscow began air strikes in support of President Bashar al-Assad on September 30.

RIA news agency quoted the Russian embassy in Damascus as saying it had no information about the reported deaths. Syrian officials could not be reached for comment.

Rami Abdulrahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights which monitors the conflict, told Reuters that his sources in the area had confirmed the deaths of Russians, but did not have a figure. He said he believed they were not regular Russian forces but volunteers.

The pro-government source, who is familiar with military events in Syria, said that at least 20 Russians were at the post in the Nabi Younis area when the shell struck.

"It's a 90 percent probability that the shell was fired by the militants," he told Reuters, referring to insurgent groups that the Syrian army, backed by Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iranian fighters, has been battling in the area.

The Kremlin has said there are no Russian troops in combat roles in Syria, though it has said there are trainers and advisers working alongside the Syrian military and also forces guarding Russia's bases in western Syria.

The Kremlin has said it is not undertaking any steps to recruit and deploy volunteer fighters.

(Additonal reporting by Alexander Winning in Moscow; Editing by Gareth Jones)

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 21 Oct 2015 08:05

^^
Russia is denying the story (from RT):

Russian Embassy in Syria refutes reports about 3 Russians killed in shelling
The Russian Embassy in Syria has refuted media reports about three Russian soldiers or “volunteers fighting in Syria” killed by a militant shelling. “We have no information about the alleged deaths of three Russians or “Russian soldiers” in Syria, which was reported by Reuters. It looks like one more stove piping,” the Russian Embassy told TASS news agency. Earlier Tuesday, Reuters reported about at least three Russian soldiers killed and several more wounded after their position was shelled in the province of Latakia, citing a senior pro-government military source.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 21 Oct 2015 08:18

Modus operandi of ISIS should tell us who may have used the previous chemical attack in Syria which was blamed on Assad by usual suspects (US/West et al).

Iraqi army says ISIS used chlorine gas near Tikrit - Oct 20, 2015

QAMISHLI – The radical group of Islamic State (ISIS) has used dozens of mortar bombs containing poisonous chlorine gas north of Tikrit against Iraqi forces, the Iraqi Joint Operations Command said on Monday.

The Iraqi military command confirmed that “ISIS has used mortar bombs containing chlorine gas with a bad smell in a bid to stop the advance of our troops.”

Speaking to ARA News in Erbil, Iraqi journalist Iyad Karkuki said: “Daesh (ISIS) is fully aware of the mounting rifts between its enemies; the international and regional powers.”

“The U.S.-led coalition forces on the one hand, and Russia backed by its allies of Iran and China on the other hand, agree on the serious threat of ISIS on the Middle East and the world.”

“However, they have deep rifts on the mechanism of eradicating the terror group,” he argued.

“Daesh uses every method in its disposal to keep areas in Iraq, including chlorine and mustard gases,” he added, using an Arabic acronym for ISIS.

The Iraqi army reiterated Monday on the progress of its forces against the terror group in various parts of Iraq. The army was able to kill dozens of ISIS extremists, including leading militants, in airstrikes carried out by the military intelligence cell in coordination with the U.S.-led coalition forces in the area.

In January, Iraqi Kurdish authorities said they had evidence that ISIS had used chlorine gas as a chemical weapon against their Peshmerga fighters in northern Iraq. Similar ISIS-led chemical attacks were reported in August.

Notably, the Kurdish forces of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), who are in fight against ISIS in northeastern Syria, announced mid-July that the terror group had used chemical weapons in the battles of Kobane –which was later liberated by the Kurdish forces.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 09:33

going by russian way of counting 1 division=10,000,
ISIS has around 1.3 divisions in Iraq (mosul, anbar)
ISIS has unknown number in Syria (rumours speak of around 25,000) = 2 divisions
and the est below of other fronts is 80,000 = 8 divisions (I am suspicious of this number)
unknown number of Al-Nusra which is the biggest non-ISIS formation - one can safely assume 15000 = 1.5 divisions
so

so total jihadis+FSA("moderates") reads like 12 divisions. a formidable number. let us scale down that 8 divisions into 4 for another calculation. still its 8 divisions.

the PKK+YPG could probably muster some 1.5 divisions at best, with the turks on their backs all the time.
"sunni tribes" who have been brutalized by the ISIS could maybe muster some 1 division worth of lashkars and levies
the shia militias of southern iraq could if they mobilize all out like for tikrit again contribute no more than 2 divisions.
the iraqi govt army could maybe muster some 3 divisions
the syrian army has 4 divisions left I think.

so manpower wise its a very even match. it could be a bloodbath for years unless game changers like artillery, armour, air power make a play.


http://www.todayonline.com/world/britai ... hters-iraq

LONDON - Britain believes there are between 10,000 and 13,000 Islamic State fighters active in Iraq, Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said on Tuesday.

Hammond added that excluding Islamic State and Al Nusra fighters, he believed there were also some 80,000 opposition fighters in neighboring Syria.

"It is estimated ... that there are 10,000 to 13,000 active ISIL fighters in Iraq," he told lawmakers, using a different title for Islamic State.

Asked about Syria, he said: "The non ISIL, non al-Nusra part of the opposition probably amounts to around 80,000 fighting strength deployed across the country – that is the latest estimate that I have," he told lawmakers. REUTERS

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Shanu » 21 Oct 2015 10:02

Singha wrote:
so manpower wise its a very even match. it could be a bloodbath for years unless game changers like artillery, armour, air power make a play.



The battle results so far seems to corroborate this further. Only 16 villages captured after 3.5 weeks of bombing by Russia, covering an approximate 100 sq. km.

al-Watan daily, which is close to the regime, said the army had taken 16 villages and an area totalling some 100 square km (40 square miles).


Link - http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/20/russia-us-sign-memorandum-syria-bombings-airstrikes

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 10:07

the kind of situation where conventional armies would deploy entire batallions is being fought at platoon and even section level of manpower. you gain something today and lose it gain tomorrow if the other side can bring 10 more rifles to the fight.

artillery consists of the odd gun or two lobbing shells periodically - no mass barrages as there is no mass artillery.

nobody on both sides has enough manpower to flood a place with boots on ground and really collar the situation by scruff of neck. nobody has armour or logistics for deep thrusts.

our RR units deploy more men to secure a small incident site than we see entire towns there.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 10:12

the gordian knot can only be cut if iran can concentrate a couple of experienced divisions of its conventional army with full engineering support for a breakout and pincer movement to trap the aleppo pocket entirely, then squeeze the ring ever tighter (zhukov style) with mass artillery barrages going at it 24x7 to attrit the defenders.

if they can take aleppo and clean the place, US will be forced to make a move on Raqqa with peshmerga and sunni tribes or risk losing it to the next phase of the persian attack which would again be a pincer around raqqa...kind of like allies and russians racing to carve up as much of europe as they could before v-day.

in barbarossa, the germans launched a double pincer first on smolensk(inner infantry, outer armour) which worked and repeated the same from smolensk to moscow which nearly worked...scouts were within sight of the kremlin when logistics and dogged red army slowed them enough for winter to set in and zhukov sprung bagration in the dead of winter.

just moving them into syria , with all their equipment and stores for a 6 month deployment will be a major logistical thing...will need a fleet of transport ships.

irregulars/militias/levies are not going to hack it.

as lot of ISIS would no doubt escape before it became too late, but they would cease to be a syrian, iraqi or russian problem and become the "worlds problem" , heading for home shores or creating mayhem in turkey itself. the world will get a glimpse of the Asuras that were created to rule syria-iraq.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Shalav » 21 Oct 2015 10:53

TOW has a achilles heel. the operator must be in a relatively clear firing position above the battlefield to both keep lasing...


IIRC TOW is optically guided, it guides its missile by comparing a light on the missile body vs the LoS view of the launcher sight. The Soviet equivalent is the Konkurs.

Beam riding LASER guided missiles such as the Kornet were developed to minimize the exposure you mentioned.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 21 Oct 2015 11:32

US General: operations in Iraq will not be possible in the case of participation of Russia

MOSCOW, October 21 - RIA Novosti. The international coalition under the leadership of the United States will not be able to conduct operations against the radical group "Islamic state" in Iraq in the presence there of the Russian Federation, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff US Armed Forces (JCS) Joseph Dunford.

"I said that we will be very difficult to provide the desired (Iraq) support if Russian will also carry out operations here," - quoted by Reuters word Dunford, said he told reporters after talks with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in the framework of his visit to Iraq.

According to Dunford, the Iraqi Prime Minister and Minister of Defence fully supports this position. "Right now there is a request for support from the Russians. The assistance of the Russian Federation is not considered", - said the military.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 21 Oct 2015 11:34

Seems like US is now blackmailing Iraq , if Iraq invites Russia for aerial bombing of ISIS , US will stop their campaign :lol:

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 12:46

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/ ... HU20151021

iraq ruling alliance and shia militias are putting pressure on the PM to request russian airstrikes. say they are frustrated with the lack of pace and depth of US coalition airstrikes.

--
looks like US will need to do more to justify its top billing or risk ceding ground.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 21 Oct 2015 13:00

rumor has it that an Israeli brigadier has been caught in Iraq.
Iraqi popular Army captured an Israeli officer whose name is Yussi Elon Shahak, based on the Intel provided by the “US international Parliament and European Department for Security and Information.” The officer’s rank is Brigadier and his military No is Re 34356578765Az231434.
.

VT

meanwhile Turkey in deep doo doo, Turkey's tourism revenues drop sharply due to terrorism, Syria, currency decline

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015- ... 729490.htm

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 13:01

hezbollah chorus music as backing score of blowing up a suicide truck in baiji..bit different from the austere arabic chanting seen in the other sides videos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vOrKTCeOgI

iraqi M109s pounding isis near baiji
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVXmYXQ9tcw

with the bleak landscapes, modded vehicle convoys, large flags, assortment of uniforms..only mad max comes close
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3rpjn1LujU

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 13:10

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fs6dtKBMOwQ

ramadi militias. they appear better equipped(BPJ), well fed and willing to dance to music also in the end. morale must be ok now.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 21 Oct 2015 13:26

Check this Damascus is in rubble


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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 21 Oct 2015 13:30

that is the jobar Russian drone video. What a huge wasteland.

12 divisions or 120000 people. Is it not fascinating how many worthless, useless, brainwashed takfiri nutjobs the Saudis and company have been able to pump into the theatre. Saudi regime should be kept weakened for ever in interest of humanity so that they do not have financial wherewithal or clout to summon such numbers from across the world at short notice. Seems like a country that has to be kept destablized for a long term in interest of humanity.

Iran/hezb/SAA/Shia militia will win this fight eventually given Russian air superiority but the progress on ground is not going to be fast. Give it 3 months-6 months. Europe is going to be in a big mess and I believe the IMF/Wb combo are going to play havoc with Europe to settle sour grapes from Syrian venture.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 14:25

perhaps this is the future of the Caliph. a farm in the saudi desert , a few goats and camels ...

wiki:
the French advance toward Kaluga was checked by a Russian corps. Napoleon tried once more to engage the Russian army for a decisive action at the Battle of Maloyaroslavets. Despite holding a superior position, the Russians retreated following a sharp engagement, confirming that the Russians would not commit themselves to a pitched battle.[16] His troops exhausted, with few rations, no winter clothing, and his remaining horses in poor condition, Napoleon was forced to retreat. He hoped to reach supplies at Smolensk and later at Vilnius. In the weeks that followed the Grande Armée starved and suffered from the onset of the Russian Winter. Lack of food and fodder for the horses, hypothermia from the bitter cold and persistent attacks upon isolated troops from Russian peasants and Cossacks led to great losses in men, and a general loss of discipline and cohesion in the army. When the remnants of Napoleon's army crossed the Berezina River in November, only 27,000 fit soldiers remained; the Grand Armée had lost some 380,000 men dead and 100,000 captured.[17] Following the crossing of the Berezina, Napoleon left the army after much urging from his advisors and with the unanimous approval of his Marshals.[18] He returned to Paris by carriage and sledge to protect his position as Emperor and to raise more forces to resist the advancing Russians. The campaign effectively ended on 14 December 1812, not quite six months from its outset, with the last French troops leaving Russian soil.

The campaign was a turning point in the Napoleonic Wars.[1] The reputation of Napoleon was severely shaken, and French hegemony in Europe was dramatically weakened. The Grande Armée, made up of French and allied invasion forces, was reduced to a fraction of its initial strength. These events triggered a major shift in European politics. France's ally Prussia, soon followed by Austria, broke their alliance with France and switched camps. This triggered the War of the Sixth Coalition

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 16:42

video of life in the surrounded city of deir al azzor and the hardships of its citizens

http://lifenews.ru/news/165477

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 16:53

themess forum:

UNCONFIRMED: Ahrar as-Sham is retreating from South Aleppo without notice, fellow Jihadists are pissed.

Also VVS completely leveled the "Aleppo Free Governorate Council" building.
---
russian and syrian troops put up joint facebook pix
http://www.vocativ.com/news/241329/syri ... ook-posts/

to me the armed troopers standing infront of the MI17 are probably a CSAR unit to rescue any downed pilots. the two syrians could be guides and interpreters who would go with them on missions.
Image

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 16:59

the CSAR is likely something like our garud teams.

on the other hand these lads look more hardened - on the base protection and hostage rescue detail maybe

Image

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby rsingh » 21 Oct 2015 17:26

Singha wrote:the gordian knot can only be cut if iran can concentrate a couple of experienced divisions of its conventional army with full engineering support for a breakout and pincer movement to trap the aleppo pocket entirely, then squeeze the ring ever tighter (zhukov style) with mass artillery barrages going at it 24x7 to attrit the defenders.

if they can take aleppo and clean the place, US will be forced to make a move on Raqqa with peshmerga and sunni tribes or risk losing it to the next phase of the persian attack which would again be a pincer around raqqa...kind of like allies and russians racing to carve up as much of europe as they could before v-day.

in barbarossa, the germans launched a double pincer first on smolensk(inner infantry, outer armour) which worked and repeated the same from smolensk to moscow which nearly worked...scouts were within sight of the kremlin when logistics and dogged red army slowed them enough for winter to set in and zhukov sprung bagration in the dead of winter.

just moving them into syria , with all their equipment and stores for a 6 month deployment will be a major logistical thing...will need a fleet of transport ships.

irregulars/militias/levies are not going to hack it.

as lot of ISIS would no doubt escape before it became too late, but they would cease to be a syrian, iraqi or russian problem and become the "worlds problem" , heading for home shores or creating mayhem in turkey itself. the world will get a glimpse of the Asuras that were created to rule syria-iraq.

Pardon, German scouts were witin sights of Moscow and not Kremlin. Moscow region is bigger then Belgium.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 21 Oct 2015 17:30

Singha wrote:to me the armed troopers standing infront of the MI17 are probably a CSAR unit to rescue any downed pilots. the two syrians could be guides and interpreters who would go with them on missions.
http://media.vocativ.com/photos/2015/10 ... 732202.png


that's a spetznaz issue rifle.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 17:46

fascinating thread on whether the germans ever saw the sun shining off kremlin domes or not
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=194166

in any case they never reached less than 25km from red square.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 18:40

Germans 'working in specialist torture squad for Islamic State'

http://flip.it/yXrPU


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