The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11610
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby A_Gupta » 24 Nov 2015 16:57

Recognize some form of Kurdistan?

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23385
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 24 Nov 2015 17:00

Shooting is an act of hostility , unless Turkey and Russia is at war or there are incidents of Russia bombing inside the Turkey border either by design or mistake , its an extreme act.

I doubt the Su-24 pilot would have challenged the F-16 to combat and they would have flee away simply as the sight of F-16 on tail

Air Space violation do take place lasting couple of seconds to minute but unless there is a past history of hostility during such violation shooting is uncalled for.

Now they have shot the aircraft and have one dead pilot , we dont know if shooting took place inside Turkey airspace or Syrian one but its certainly a hostile act.

Turkey and Israel goes inside Syria and bombs the target but they were never shot down , Russia never went inside Turkey and bombed terrorist bases or other targets to be considered hostile.

This is clearly jumping the gun and now what ever consequences follows Diplomatic or Military Turkey has to face it

deejay
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3888
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby deejay » 24 Nov 2015 17:00

^^^ Apart from the aircraft, some Russian journalists were injured in shelling yesterday near Latakia and a rumour of a Russian Helicopter being shot down not far from where the Su 24 went down today.

Israeli Air Force has launched air strikes against Hezbollah positions in Qalamoun and near by areas of Syria on the Lebanon - Syria border yesterday.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11610
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby A_Gupta » 24 Nov 2015 17:06

What do we make of news items like this (four days old)
http://syriawatch.intoxvs.info/al-qaeda ... 62564.html
"As a result of this advance by the Syrian Armed Forces, the Turkmen members of Jabhat Al-Nusra issued a distress call to their allies in Turkey (via social media) in order to motivate them to come to their aid in northern Latakia."

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11610
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby A_Gupta » 24 Nov 2015 17:07

http://www.albawaba.com/news/turkey-un- ... ria-772562
Turkey to UN: Protect Turkmen civilians in Syria

deejay
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3888
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby deejay » 24 Nov 2015 17:09

https://twitter.com/homo_viator/status/669090488637632512

rui borges
‏@homo_viator rui borges Retweeted Sahra Wagenknecht
#Turkey's "shooting down of #Russianplane is an attack on world peace" - German MP .@SWagenknecht
rui borges added,
Sahra Wagenknecht @SWagenknecht
IS-Unterstützer in türk. Regierung lassen Maske fallen: Abschuss russischer Maschine ist Angriff auf den Weltfrieden http://tinyurl.com/oefp6ra


On the other hand Russian FM has cancelled his scheduled visit to Turkey for tomorrow. Russian helicopters are still searching for downed pilot/s. Heavy clashes are reported from the crash area.

NATO is reportedly maintaining close contact with Turkey regarding the shooting of the fighter aircraft:


Agence France-PresseVerified account
‏@AFP
#BREAKING NATO in 'close contact' with Turkey after Russian jet downed

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23385
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 24 Nov 2015 17:09

^^deejay I dont know how much of the Rumour are true but Russian MOD would probably take its time to come to some conclusion backed by evidence.

You dont really shoot aircraft just because of air space violation with no past history of hostility and if its a lumbering bomber like Su-24 unless you want to prove a point deliberately

My best bet is Russia will take this first to UNSC followed by Diplomatic Pressure and heavy bombing near those Syrian borders

IF Iran and Iraq can allow its airspace to be used to bomb ISIS well known to all , What wrong with Turkey shooting just because there is violation unless they have some interest supporting ISIS

ldev
BRFite
Posts: 1664
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby ldev » 24 Nov 2015 17:17

I will not be surprised if this either a unilateral Turkish action and/or one supported quietly by KSA/Qatar/UAE trying to convert this into a Russia-Nato confrontaton.

If the aircraft was shot while over Turkey then the Turkish Army should have captured the 2 pilots. But according to reports 2 parachutes were observed and then rebel militias killed the 2 pilots. So the aircraft was over Syrian airspace when it was shot and the pilots ejected over Syrian airspace.

Turkey is clearly very annoyed at the reverses suffered by its militias in Syria for it to take such risky action to try and drag Nato into this.

vijaykarthik
BRFite
Posts: 1108
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby vijaykarthik » 24 Nov 2015 17:19

Ah, nonsense. This is what I had told my team (on a diff mission) earlier on 20th Nov... and Im guilty of forgetting this thought today.

--
An interesting tidbit.
Turkey summons Russian envoy over bombing of Turkmens in Syria: PM
Turkey has summoned Russia's ambassador in protest over the "intensive" bombing of Turkmen villages in northern Syria by Russian warplanes, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters on Friday.
In the meeting with the ambassador, Andrei Karlov, Turkey called for an immediate end to the Russian military operation, which is near the Turkish border, the foreign ministry said in a statement.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/ ... -syria-tur key-russia-idUSKCN0T91MO20151120
--
Might not matter much... or could matter all and then some more. The way the Russians are throwing the kitchen sink at the IS, the Turks are at a significant loss. And since the no fly zone was shot down, unequivocally, in Ankara (touché!), will putting NATO under tremendous pressure be Erdogan's Plan B?

Now: With this shooting down -- It does look like Erdogan is trying to push the limits and try a bit of poking around the edges to see what will give in first and also differentiate friends from enemies.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23385
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 24 Nov 2015 17:33

Putin: Downing of Russian jet over Syria stab in the back by terrorist accomplices

Turkey backstabbed Russia by downing the Russian warplane and acted as accomplices of the terrorists, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

The plane was hit by a Turkish warplane as it was travelling 1 km away from the Turkish border, Putin said. The plane posed no threat to Turkish national security, he stressed.

Putin said the plane was targeting terrorist targets in the Latakia province of Syria, many of whom came from Russia.

Russia noticed of the flow of oil from Syrian territory under the control of terrorists to Turkey, Putin said.


Apparently, IS now not only receives revenue from the smuggling of oil, but also has the protection of a nation’s military, Putin said. This may explain why the terrorist group is so bold in taking acts of terrorism across the world, he added.

The incident will have grave consequences for Russia’s relations with Turkey, Putin warned.

The fact that Turkey did not try to contact Russia in the wake of the incident and rushed to call a NATO meeting instead is worrisome, Putin said. It appears that Turkey want NATO to serve the interests of IS, he added.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13073
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Nov 2015 17:45

Wonder what happens if Russia launches saturation air raids in that area - protected by Su-30s. Basically :P to the Turks. With a few Baltic sea missile cruisers maneuvering to line up in an arc centered on Ankara.

Next thing the Turkeys will try is to block passage through the Bosporus, hain? Now VERY clearly, NATO is seen as behind ISIS. Shooting down aircraft to protect the ISIS' oil and slave trade.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11610
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby A_Gupta » 24 Nov 2015 17:45


Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20155
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Philip » 24 Nov 2015 17:53

The Sultan is gambling upon NATO to save his and his son's brigandry in Syria and Iraq. The more revelations about ISIS oil being sold by Erdogan and family the less support he will get. The Turkish aircraft could've at least fired warning shots first.The action was premeditated and an enraged Bear will show its claws no question.

Latest news:
Opposition now claims they shot down a Russian helicopter sent to rescue the pilots. No confirmation. One report said that the helo forcelanded trying to avoid a TOW missile.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/n ... with-syria
Turkey downs Russian warplane near Syria border
Russian fighter jet shot down near Turkey-Syria border - video
Kareem Shaheen in Beirut, Shaun Walker in Moscow, and Julian Borger
Tuesday 24 November 2015

Turkey has shot down a Russian warplane, the first time a Nato country and Moscow have exchanged direct fire over the crisis in Syria.

Ankara and the Kremlin gave conflicting accounts of the incident, which appears to have occurred in an area near the Turkish-Syrian border straddling Iskenderun and Latakia.

The Turkish military said it scrambled two F-16 fighter jets after a plane penetrated Turkish airspace in the province of Hatay at 9.20am on Tuesday morning, warning it to leave 10 times in five minutes before it was shot down.

Live/ Russian fighter jet downed near Turkey-Syria border – live updates

A government official said: “In line with the military rules of engagement, the Turkish authorities repeatedly warned an unidentified aircraft that they were 15km or less away from the border. The aircraft didn’t heed the warnings and proceeded to fly over Turkey. The Turkish air forces responded by downing the aircraft.

“This isn’t an action against any specific country: our F-16s took necessary steps to defend Turkey’s sovereign territory.”

Russia’s defence ministry, in a series of tweets, confirmed a Russian Su-24 had been shot down, but insisted the plane had never left Syrian airspace and claimed that fire from the ground was responsible. “At all times, the Su-24 was exclusively over the territory of Syria,” the defence ministry said.

“The Su-24 was at 6,000 metres and preliminary information suggests it was brought down by fire from the ground. The circumstances are being investigated.”

The ministry said the two pilots managed to successfully eject from the plane, but added that Moscow had no further contact with them. The Turkish TV network CNN Türk has reported that one of the pilots was found dead, and a graphic video purporting to show a dead Russian pilot is being widely circulated. The fate and whereabouts of the second pilot is unclear.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Russian helicopters were combing the crash site area in Jabal al-Turkman in Syria’s northern Latakia province for the pilots, and have apparently blocked wireless communications.

The area near where the plane was shot down is the site of continuing clashes between forces loyal to the embattled Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, and rebels fighting to overthrow him.

Russia launched a military intervention in October aimed at protecting the areas in western Syria still under control by the regime after nearly five years of civil war. The northern Latakia countryside has seen repeated aerial assaults by both Russian and Syrian air forces.

Tensions between Turkey and Russia have risen over Moscow’s bombing campaign against ethnic Turkmen close to the Turkish border. Turkey has repeatedly expressed concern over the attacks on the Turkmens, a Sunni Muslim minority who many Turks regard as their kith and kin. Like the Ankara government, the Turkmens oppose Assad’s Alawite regime.

Shortly after the Russian intervention, Turkey warned the Kremlin that it would not tolerate violations of its airspace, after two incidents that prompted consultations with Nato.

Sinan Ülgen, a former Turkish diplomat who is now the chairman of the Edam thinktank in Istanbul, said Tuesday’s incident has been in the making for some time.

“There were two airspace violations [in the past few weeks], and after that a very high level Russian military delegation came to Turkey to talk about it, including a top air force official. They apologised for one of the incidents, saying that in that case the Russian pilot didn’t speak the language. So we thought we had an understanding and solved the problem.

“So it’s a surprise that it happened since that visit,” said Ülgen. “But it’s not a surprise in terms of Russian strategy. Since the intervention the Russians have been testing the Turkish response at its borders and its rules of engagement.

“In this case, the pilot was warned a number of times. First at 13 miles out from the Turkish border, and then at five miles out, which is when Turkish jets scramble. It went past all those thresholds,” he said.

Combination frame grabs shows a warplane crashing in flames in a mountainous area in northern Syria after it was shot down near the Turkish-Syrian border. Photograph: Reuters

Vladimir Putin’s spokesman on Tuesday called the downing of the plane a “very serious incident”, but said it was too early to draw conclusions.

“It is just impossible to say something without having full information,” Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Turkey opposes Assad and has condemned the Russian intervention for targeting rebels not affiliated with the terror group Islamic State.

The latest incident highlights the grave risks of clashes of arms between the various international forces that have intervened in Syria. A coalition led by the US is conducting an ongoing campaign against Isis in the country, and American and Russian officials have worked on ensuring there are no clashes between their forces as they pursue their separate campaigns.

But the shooting down of the Russian plane is an escalation that leaves open the possibility of a clash between a Nato member and Russia, whose intervention shows an increasing assertiveness in international affairs.
Last edited by Philip on 24 Nov 2015 18:06, edited 1 time in total.

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6703
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 24 Nov 2015 17:54

If even a aam bystander or spectator like myself feels like going to Syria and cutting up a few turkmen and putting a few turkic heads on spikes, imagine what Putin & co may be feeling. Turkey has a bleak future. It will come in for nuke strike or massive bombing or economic attack. 2 AM strike on Erdogan's palace is also a strong possibility.

A message has to be sent to gulf fatsos not to mess with the big boyz.

so far only 2 aircraft have been downed in these strikes and both are russian. Even if Russians are tres diplomatic, it is a bit too much of a provoke. And the reply must be massive to prove the point.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13073
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Nov 2015 17:56

OTOH, consider the 'qui bono' here. I think Russia is the winner - clear evidence of Turkish/western sponsorship/ownership of the ISIS brutes. Not implying that Putin deliberately put his pilots at needless risk, but that the Turkeys have really stepped in it now. I think the "close contact" with NATO must be very interesting - as in mush-soccer. How many NATO nations want to go to war with Russia to protect ISIS today I wonder. Can you say Greece, anyone? France? Germany?
But I KNEW it! :(( I commented on the perfect record of the RUAF - and 2 days later, this. :(
Had to happen sooner or later.

Maybe time for the Peopre's airclaft carrier Luan to make an appearance with a few overfrights :eek: of Turkey.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 24 Nov 2015 18:01, edited 2 times in total.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11610
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby A_Gupta » 24 Nov 2015 17:58

Comment in the NYT:
David Brisbane, Australia 27 minutes ago

Turks are lying. According to the tracks they published the downed plane crossed a sliver of Turkish territory no more than 3 km wide. That should take a slowly flying jet less than 15 seconds, nowhere near 5 min the Turks claim it took them to issue 10 warnings. That was a premeditated provocation by the Turks, they were waiting for that plane. It is hard to believe that they would go for such major escalation without getting a go-ahead from US/NATO first

ldev
BRFite
Posts: 1664
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby ldev » 24 Nov 2015 17:59

Putin calls Turkey "accomplices of terrorists"

Do they want to make Nato serve ISIS? I understand that every state has its own regional interests and we’ve always respected that, but we will never allow the kind of crime that happened to today to take place. And of course we hope that the international community will find the strength to come together and fight against the common evil.



This event is beyond the normal framework of fighting against terrorism. Of course our military is doing heroic work against terrorism... But the loss today is a stab in the back, carried out by the accomplices of terrorists. I can’t describe it in any other way. Our aircraft was downed over the territory of Syria, using air-to-air missile from a Turkish F-16. It fell on the Syrian territory 4km from Turkey.

Neither our pilots nor our jet threatened the territory of Turkey. This is obvious. They are fighting terrorists in the northern areas around Latakia, where militants are located, mainly people who originated in Russia, and they were pursuing their direct duty, to make sure these people do not return to Russia. These are people who are clearly international terrorists.

Taking into account that we signed an agreement on deconflicting with the US, and as we know Turkey was among the ones that has joined the US coalition. Since Isis has such huge resources of hundreds of millions and billions of dollars coming from illicit oil sales, and they are protected by the armed forces of other states, then it’s clear why they are so brazen, why they are killing people, why they are carrying out terrorist attacks throughout the world including in the heart of Europe.

We will analyse everything, and today’s tragic event will have significant consequences, including for Russia-Turkish relations. We have always treated Turkey as a friendly state. I don’t know who was interested in what happened today, certainly not us. And instead of immediately getting in contact with us, as far as we know, the Turkish side immediately turned to their partners from Nato to discuss this incident, as if we shot down their plane and not they ours.
Last edited by ldev on 24 Nov 2015 18:05, edited 1 time in total.

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6703
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 24 Nov 2015 18:03

UlanBatori wrote:But I KNEW it! :(( I commented on the perfect record of the RUAF - and 2 days later, this. :(
Had to happen sooner or later.


I had also noted that.

black tongue indeed. :mrgreen:

VishalJ
BRFite
Posts: 996
Joined: 12 Feb 2009 06:40
Location: Mumbai
Contact:

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby VishalJ » 24 Nov 2015 18:03

Image

Image

Image

WikiLeaks ‏@wikileaks
Turkey's military releases 'radar track' of downed Russian jet clipping Turkish land "nose"
Image
Last edited by VishalJ on 24 Nov 2015 18:09, edited 1 time in total.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 24 Nov 2015 18:05

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 42 mins42 minutes ago
The crew were safely evacuated, #RuAF then bombarded the grounded helicopter and destroyed it

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 44 mins44 minutes ago
#RuAF helicopter crashed north of Kafriyeh after being hit by a rocket from militants in Al-Nuba area #Latakia CS

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 24 Nov 2015 18:05

Image

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6703
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 24 Nov 2015 18:06

In any such war where rebels are directly backed by NATO, there would always be ups and downs. Any downs should be treated as opportunities and turned into ups and create a crest. If NATO wants to go down the drain quicker, then why should Russia worry.

btw the NATO partner IMF has thrown a few crumbs in China's direction by promising Yuan SDR global reserve status.

rsingh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3332
Joined: 19 Jan 2005 01:05
Location: Pindi
Contact:

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby rsingh » 24 Nov 2015 18:07

Russia has stopped gas supply to turkey. unconfirmed report. Lavrov canceled forthcoming visit to turkey;

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 24 Nov 2015 18:09

taylieli ‏@taylieli 3h3 hours ago
Reports that heaviest bombardment allegedely started on Jabal Tourkman/#Latakia (downed jet area) now.

vijaykarthik
BRFite
Posts: 1108
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby vijaykarthik » 24 Nov 2015 18:10

Does anyone remember the Russian gas agreement with Turkey to bypass Ukraine / Bulgaria. Wonder what will come out of it. But Erdogan has put a scorpion inside his underwear with this move. One never knows when the sting will come. But it will come eventually.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13073
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Nov 2015 18:12

With all the Roosky fighter jocks in Syria, it would be hard to keep them from a small navigation error as in accidentally demolishing a Turkish air base and a few Eph-solahs. If I had stocks in Turkish infrastructure, I would sell it now.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13073
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Nov 2015 18:13

Singha wrote:taylieli ‏@taylieli 3h3 hours ago
Reports that heaviest bombardment allegedely started on Jabal Tourkman/#Latakia (downed jet area) now.


There u go. I bet now protected by Su-30s. The "turkmen" are caught in a turkey-shoot.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby shiv » 24 Nov 2015 18:15

vijaykarthik wrote:Ah, nonsense. This is what I had told my team (on a diff mission) earlier on 20th Nov... and Im guilty of forgetting this thought today.

--
An interesting tidbit.
Turkey summons Russian envoy over bombing of Turkmens in Syria: PM
Turkey has summoned Russia's ambassador in protest over the "intensive" bombing of Turkmen villages in northern Syria by Russian warplanes, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters on Friday.
In the meeting with the ambassador, Andrei Karlov, Turkey called for an immediate end to the Russian military operation, which is near the Turkish border, the foreign ministry said in a statement.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/ ... -syria-tur key-russia-idUSKCN0T91MO20151120
--
Might not matter much... or could matter all and then some more. The way the Russians are throwing the kitchen sink at the IS, the Turks are at a significant loss. And since the no fly zone was shot down, unequivocally, in Ankara (touché!), will putting NATO under tremendous pressure be Erdogan's Plan B?

Now: With this shooting down -- It does look like Erdogan is trying to push the limits and try a bit of poking around the edges to see what will give in first and also differentiate friends from enemies.


I think Turkey was relying on IS to keep culling Kurds and the Russians made life difficult for Turkey's plans

Surya
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5034
Joined: 05 Mar 2001 12:31

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Surya » 24 Nov 2015 18:22

Ulan batori I wish you had kept your comments yourself

I shuddered when you posted it

deejay
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3888
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby deejay » 24 Nov 2015 18:28

Austin wrote:^^deejay I dont know how much of the Rumour are true but Russian MOD would probably take its time to come to some conclusion backed by evidence.

You dont really shoot aircraft just because of air space violation with no past history of hostility and if its a lumbering bomber like Su-24 unless you want to prove a point deliberately

My best bet is Russia will take this first to UNSC followed by Diplomatic Pressure and heavy bombing near those Syrian borders

IF Iran and Iraq can allow its airspace to be used to bomb ISIS well known to all , What wrong with Turkey shooting just because there is violation unless they have some interest supporting ISIS


Russia was not attacking targets in Turkey. Border airspace violations keep happening in even Indo - Pak scenario (mostly inadvertent). Decision to shoot down comes from the top, even if target is clear and painted over own territory. Shooting down an aircraft is a conscious decision with far too important ramifications to be left to the pilot and his trigger finger.

To trace, Russians were killed in Sinai. Russia declared its intentions to take the fight to the terrorists - ISIS. Turkey's undeniable support to ISIS has been reported here often enough mostly quoting Russian sources. Now, Russia did not take the fight to Turkey. Turkey has drawn first blood.

Russians will assess and take their time about the next step. NATO membership of Turkey does provide Turkey some comforts. However, just one day before (Yesterday), the Turkman militias being protected by Turkey were declared Terrorists by UN. Russia, therefore was justified in its bombing those targets (within the context of present conflict in Levant). Hence, all NATO members may not be keen in backing Turkey.

I am not sure that the Russians appear to be in a mood to 'blink'.

rsingh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3332
Joined: 19 Jan 2005 01:05
Location: Pindi
Contact:

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby rsingh » 24 Nov 2015 18:28

Sputnik: Russian MoD released sat pics to show that plane was in syrian Airspace.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20155
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Philip » 24 Nov 2015 18:33

Putin warns..."serious consequences".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -live.html
Turkey shoots down Russian warplane on Syria border: Vladimir Putin warns of 'serious consequences' - latest
Russian president has accused Turkey of "stabbing Russia in the back", as reports say one pilot has been killed and a second has been captured by Turkmen forces in Syria
Turkey's Dogan Haber Agency (The above tweet is from CNN Turk's Foreign Editor who tweeted: The Turkmen rebels DHA spoke to said: We hit at the two pilots after they parachuted. DHA) are reporting that Turkmen rebels claim they killed the two pilots after they ejected from the plane.


Who are the Turkmen?

The downing of a Russian fighter jet on Syria’s Mount Turkmen has thrown the spotlight on to its inhabitants, part of the broader Turkmen community that stretches across northern Syria and Iraq, write Louisa Loveluck and Richard Spencer, Middle East Editor.

In Syria the Turkmen, who are linguistically and ethnically Turkish, live alongside Arabs and Kurds, but have mostly aligned with non-jihadist anti-Assad rebel groups.

They historically objected to the Arab nationalism of the Assad regime’s Baath party, which stressed assimilation to the Arab language and culture. In turn, the regime has frequently regarded them as a fifth column working in favour of Ankara.

Around a dozen Turkmen militias have formed, some directly supported by the Turkish government. It is one of these, Alwiya al-Ashar, that is reportedly holding one of Russia's downed pilots.

They have been fighting alongside other rebel groups, including the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and more moderate brigades, in Latakia province which runs to the sea along the Turkish border in the north-west.

In recent days, thousands of civilians have fled over the border, saying they feared Russian bombing raids in support of regime forces in the area. Another 5,000 arrived at a refugee camp at Arfali, on the Syrian side of the border.

According to the governor of the Turkish province of Hatay, Ercan Topaca, 28 civilians arrived injured and one died in hospital.

The clash that led to the downing of the Russian jet today may be connected to that fighting.

Alwiya al-Ashar is linked to a Turkish and CIA-backed logistics supply programme that funnels a near-constant stream of small arms, ammunition, and cash for salaries to rebel groups across northern Syria.


Guys,this has the fingerprints of the CIA too written all over it.Typical of O'Bomber.He does his dirty work in the dark.As I said earlier "Putin shoots from the hip,O'Bomber prefers to silently fart,leaving an unknown stink".

ldev
BRFite
Posts: 1664
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby ldev » 24 Nov 2015 18:34

Russia will try and get German/French support for its position so that NATO does not back Turkey. The Germans want the refugee influx to stop, the French want terror bombings by ISIS to stop. I think Turkey is going to be hung out to dry on this one by NATO.

Retribution will likely come in the form of some massive "terror" bombings in Istanbul.

There was some hope of a compromise if the two pilots lives had been spared, but their barbaric killing means that Russia will not back down.

ldev
BRFite
Posts: 1664
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby ldev » 24 Nov 2015 18:38

I think the S-400 will now be positioned in Syria.

Comer
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3574
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Comer » 24 Nov 2015 18:39

If Turkey is the aggressor, I guess NATO is not mandated to come to its rescue. If Russia produces evidence of itchy fingers, Turkey is on its own.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20155
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Philip » 24 Nov 2015 18:42

Sorry if already posted,but Putin's statement needs to be read to understand what may follow.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2 ... ve-updates
Putin added this provocative comment at the end of his statement.

Do they want to make Nato serve ISIS? I understand that every state has its own regional interests and we’ve always respected that, but we will never allow the kind of crime that happened to today to take place. And of course we hope that the international community will find the strength to come together and fight against the common evil.

Putin warns Turkey of “significant consequences”.
Speaking ahead of his meeting with King Abdullah II of Jordan in Sochi, the Russian leader said:

This event is beyond the normal framework of fighting against terrorism. Of course our military is doing heroic work against terrorism... But the loss today is a stab in the back, carried out by the accomplices of terrorists. I can’t describe it in any other way. Our aircraft was downed over the territory of Syria, using air-to-air missile from a Turkish F-16. It fell on the Syrian territory 4km from Turkey.

Neither our pilots nor our jet threatened the territory of Turkey. This is obvious. They are fighting terrorists in the northern areas around Latakia, where militants are located, mainly people who originated in Russia, and they were pursuing their direct duty, to make sure these people do not return to Russia. These are people who are clearly international terrorists.

Taking into account that we signed an agreement on deconflicting with the US, and as we know Turkey was among the ones that has joined the US coalition. Since Isis has such huge resources of hundreds of millions and billions of dollars coming from illicit oil sales, and they are protected by the armed forces of other states, then it’s clear why they are so brazen, why they are killing people, why they are carrying out terrorist attacks throughout the world including in the heart of Europe.

We will analyse everything, and today’s tragic event will have significant consequences, including for Russia-Turkish relations. We have always treated Turkey as a friendly state. I don’t know who was interested in what happened today, certainly not us. And instead of immediately getting in contact with us, as far as we know, the Turkish side immediately turned to their partners from Nato to discuss this incident, as if we shot down their plane and not they ours.


In the aftermath of this event,one can only see Russia strengthen its mil forces in Syria,perhaps even with ground troops. There is no way now that it will " beat the retreat" as the US has done. Russia and Turkish relations will descend to the sewer and its relations with Syria and Iran will only strengthen further. All those entities working together with Turkey and ISIS are now fair game for Russia. Perhaps Sultan Erdogan should remember what Adm.Yamamoto said after the attack upon Pearl Harbour,that brought the US into WW2; "I fear all we have done is awaken a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve".
Last edited by Philip on 24 Nov 2015 18:49, edited 2 times in total.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11610
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby A_Gupta » 24 Nov 2015 18:46

From: http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2 ... ve-updates

Britain’s foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, has accused a Labour MP of being an “apologist for Russian actions” after questions were raised in Parliament about Turkey’s reliability as a British ally.

PA reports the exchange:

Hammond insisted Turkey will remain a “very important partner” for the UK, hours after it shot down a Russian war plane near the Syria border.

Labour’s Dennis Skinner pressed Hammond for his views on Turkey’s role agains Islamic State following the incident.

He also accused Turkey of buying oil from the terror group, “in order to prop them up”.

Hammond replied: “I see old habits die hard and you remain an apologist for Russian actions. On the question of Turkey, Turkey is an important Nato ally.

“It holds the key to a number of really very important questions, both in relation to the battle against Isil but also in relation to the migration challenge that Europe faces, and it will remain a very important partner for this country and for the European Union.”

Skinner had asked Hammond: “Do you regard Turkey as a reliable ally in the battle against Isil [Isis]?

“When you consider that not only today that they’ve shot down a Russian jet - who are also trying to fight Isil - they’re buying oil from Isil in order to prop them up, they’re bombing the Kurds who are also fighting Isil.

“This Syrian engagement is an almighty mess.”

rsingh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3332
Joined: 19 Jan 2005 01:05
Location: Pindi
Contact:

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby rsingh » 24 Nov 2015 18:53

Nato treaty in short
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/off ... _17120.htm

Article 1 is quite intersting.

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6703
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 24 Nov 2015 19:06

Philip wrote:Guys,this has the fingerprints of the CIA too written all over it.Typical of O'Bomber.He does his dirty work in the dark.As I said earlier "Putin shoots from the hip,O'Bomber prefers to silently fart,leaving an unknown stink".


they all work together, that's how Turkey immidiately contacted NATO after the illegal shooting down. The go-ahead was given by NATO.
Septic yanks as usual trying to up their game and they can up it all the way until their own blood can be spilled.

Taking it to the UNSC is a kind of 'with us or against us' deal, at best France & Germany can abstain and show the pussy that they really are. Mama will take care of the unkil and it's piglets.
It's been a long time coming since the 'forces of good' really poked into the eye of the Sauron.

vijaykarthik
BRFite
Posts: 1108
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby vijaykarthik » 24 Nov 2015 19:09

Since I am tracking this topic, let me add a technical bit too. though Turkey is calling for a NATO meeting, it isn't a Article 4 meeting yet. So, theres that too.

Article 4 is a call for a proper discussion on. Besides, I don't think NATO will ever bring in Article 5 for fighting Daesh / ISIS. However, if they did, it will be funny, aint it - Who exactly is IS / Daesh / KSA / Qatar / Kuwait / UAE / Turkey now and how can one find 5 differences in a very short time before dropping a bomb.

But a response will be given at a time of Russia's choosing, in its own style and verve. Revenge is best served cold. Particularly since Turkey has NATO protection.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Karan M and 59 guests