The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Philip » 25 Nov 2015 10:22

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/tur ... 47161.html
.Turkey has spent years allowing jihadist groups to flourish - so beware its real reasons for shooting down a Russian plane

Turkey has no interest in the peaceful settlement to the conflict in Syria that world powers are negotiating. As Erdogan gets desperate, he will attempt to bring focus back to Assad
Ranj Alaaldin |

A trail of flames is seen behind the jet after it was struck by the Turkish military Getty Images

Turkey is getting desperate. Under President Recep Tayip Erdogan and his party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), its policies toward the conflict in Syria over the past four years have been misguided and costly. When conflict broke out in 2011, Ankara mistakenly under-estimated the strength of the Assad regime and supported hardline Islamist groups seeking its downfall. In the process, Turkey also marginalised the Kurds and alienated regional powers like Iran.

Four years on, Assad looks set to hold onto power and his regime will be a central part of a transition plan, one that foreign powers were negotiating last weekend. Turkey’s regional rival, Iran, is a key player which can no longer be ignored by the West. Not only does the pro-Assad alliance now have Russian support firmly on its side, but the international community is no longer focused on defeating the regime – instead, it is concerned with defeating jihadist groups like Isis.

The shift in focus is a significant drawback for Erdogan. Years of support for, and investment in, Islamic fundamentalist groups like Jabhat al-Nusra (Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria) and Ahrar al-Sham are about to go to waste. Ankara has played a significant role in allowing Isis and other jihadists to flourish in Syria and the region. Turkey has acquiesced to jihadist groups entering Syria via Turkey as well as their use of Turkey as a transit point for smuggling arms and funds into Syria.

The Kurds in Syria, meanwhile, have established themselves as a reliable Western ally and have created, in the process, an autonomous Kurdish region that has reinvigorated Kurdish nationalism in Turkey and across the region - much to Turkey’s dismay as it continues a brutal military campaign to repress the Kurds.

Bombs can't defeat Isis, but Iraq's Sunnis can

In other words, Turkey has no interest in the peaceful settlement to the conflict in Syria that world powers are negotiating. As it gets desperate, Turkey will attempt to bring focus back on the Assad regime and reverse the losses it has made both in Syria and geopolitically. The decision to bring down the Russian jet is, therefore, likely to have had other political factors behind it - particularly since the jet, as far as we know, posed no immediate threat to Turkey’s national security.

Domestically, Erdogan thrives on a climate of fear and uncertainty. This worked for him in the country’s snap elections earlier this month, during which he regained the majority he lost in June after months of bombings, violence and divisive rhetoric.

Ankara’s downing of the Russian jet may provide a useful diversion as it seeks to intensify its military campaign against the Kurds, particularly in the Kurdish-dominated Mardin province, where MPs were assaulted in recent days. Two days ago, Selahattin Demirtas, head of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) who shot to international acclaim in the country’s national elections, survived an assassination attempt in Kurdish-dominated Diyarbakir.

These tactics will not be without long-term costs and will undermine the chances of peace in Syria as well as the West’s effort to defeat Isis.

The West appeased and bolstered Erdogan in Turkey in the run-up to the country’s elections, with the aim of securing a deal with Ankara on the refugee crisis. It may now regret that. Erdogan is not only likely to drive a hard bargain but he may also walk away.

He has never cared much for the EU and has only sought engagement with the West when under pressure at home. But Turkey is not an indispensable ally and should not be considered as such. Unless the West starts to seriously exert pressure, Erdogan will have little incentive to stop his damaging policies.

PS:JEM,well put.
Will the Turkish "tail" wag the NATO/Western dog?

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby deejay » 25 Nov 2015 10:25

Spuutnik reporting : "Russian Defense Ministry Video Proves Su-24 Never Entered Turkish Airspace"

http://sputniknews.com/military/20151124/1030695406/mod-su-24-flight-path.html#ixzz3sHIScgCN

While authorities in Ankara have insisted that it shot down the Russian Su-24 bomber after the aircraft entered Turkish airspace, the Russian Defense Ministry has released video proving that the plane never left Syrian airspace.

According to a leaked letter written to the UN Security Council by the Turkish Ambassador, Turkey’s military justified the shooting down of a Russian bomber by claiming that the aircraft had entered Turkish airspace for 17 seconds.


But flight data released by Russian Ministry of Defense shows that the Su-24s never entered Turkey, and were attacked while performing legitimate maneuvers over Syria.

On Tuesday, Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24M Fencer bomber. One of the pilots has been confirmed dead by Russian authorities, shot by rebel ground units after ejecting.

Russian President Vladimir Putin described the incident as a "stab in the back, carried out against us by accomplices of terrorists."



Read more: http://sputniknews.com/military/2015112 ... z3sHIcglrp


There is video on the page worth watching.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby vina » 25 Nov 2015 10:28

Well, lets face it. The Turkmen opposition is going to get pounded. Erdogan has done a Kargil redux and has been "tactically brilliant" in ambushing the Russian fighters, but Strategically ultra stupid.

Russia will leave ISIS to the Russians and French and pound the Turcomen. US and France cannot afford NOT to go after ISIS, now that the Russians have already pounded the fuel trucks and the French have been bloodied in Paris.

The only group(s) that can go after the ISIS are the Syrian Govt troops/Hizbollah and Iran backed militia and the Kurds. So those groups will probably get Russian close air support in fights. While the Kurds get US cover. Wonder what will happen if the Russians get the Iraqi kurds on their side and put in SAM batteries in northern iraq and threatening the Incirlick operations that Unkil wants to operate out of ?

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Multatuli » 25 Nov 2015 10:32

vina wrote:

Expect quick shalwar browning and downhill skiing from the Turks in short order and Russia amps up the muscle on this and goes about doing exactly what Turkey wanted to prevent, ie destruction of the Turcoman opposition and thwarting what they wanted , a safe haven for the anti Assad opposition.

If the US and NATO hadn't given that message to Turkey, the lap dog US media would be publishing inconvenient facts that the Russian plane was hit INSIDE Syrian territory.


Yup. Turks are very serious about protecting/working with groups related by blood, be it the Turkmen in Syria or Uyghurs. They see it as an extension of their influence. Turks glorify their past empire and long for a new Turkish empire. The Turkmen in Syria/Iraq aren't loyal citizens, most are loyal to Turkey and want to be incorporated in a new Turkish empire. (Hope I make sense to the reader.)

So, what the Russian and Syrians must do is mercilessly bomb, not just the Turkmen terrorists allied to Al Nusra/IS and Turkey, but the Turkmen population (in Syria) in general. Drive them out of Syria into Turkey. This will hurt Turkish pride and enrage them.

Allow the Kurds in Syria and Iraq to link up and form their, de facto, autonomous state. Neither Syria nor Iraq can be put together again, so there is no loss.

And yes, no one wants to escalate this conflict, but the Turks will have to pay the price for their perfidy. It won't be anything as dramatic as bombing Ankara or Incirlik air base, instead I expect one or more Turkish jets to be shot down. And NATO will do nothing about it except to tell Turkey to suck it up.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 25 Nov 2015 10:34

Baiji region seems to be heating up with iraqi shia militias moving around like the SF team that shot the two fatties,
are there good twitter accounts to follow for iraqi news ? the ones we follow are all syria focussed.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 25 Nov 2015 10:38

places like Jisr-al-shughour are complete rebel hellhole and no sane human lives in those places.
russia can make an example by dropping some real heavy payload on such places.
raqqa & hama are other such places.
windflow is always from coast into inland, so Jabal turkman etc can be even nuked and radiation will move towards turkey.
the bulk of Syrian bombing should be completed in short order and then a total unilateral no-fly zone should be imposed.

after that Russia can begin with 'screw the USA' operation.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Shreeman » 25 Nov 2015 10:39

When events go out of hand calculations and machinations quickly unwind too. Facts on the ground may not obey the oligarchs playing this chess. Syria has enough in the air and on the ground to give more than a bloody nose to one and all.

And no, there is no easy way of predicting where these events will lead. dr strangelove is more real these days than ever before.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 25 Nov 2015 10:43

check haidar sumeri twitter feed for iraqi news.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Anant » 25 Nov 2015 10:44

Nuclear war eh? Sounds realistic to me. I love the vitriol in this room. A few years ago, folks on BR used to take the high ground and call PakDef a nutty website with crackpot theories. Good to know some in this room have come to that level. I'm sure the US and other nuclear powers will sit on their ass and twiddle as Russia drops nuclear bombs. Makes total sense to me and anyone else with two synapses. Keep up the good work. This thread is endless amusement. :rotfl:
Last edited by Anant on 25 Nov 2015 10:54, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby vina » 25 Nov 2015 10:54

Anant wrote:Nuclear war eh? Sounds realistic to me. I love the vitriol in this room. A few years ago, folks on BR used to take the high ground and call PakDef a nutter website with crackpot theories. Good to know some in this room have come to that level. I'm sure the US and other nuclear powers will sit on their ass and twiddle as Russia drops nuclear bombs. Makes total sense to me and anyone else with two synapses. Keep up the good work. This thread is endless amusement.


Yes, Habal's fulminations are overboard, I agree, but then, lets face it, the white guys are not going to risk getting nuked because their "Turkish Wogs" / "Nato Ali" got totally deranged and went off the deep end and got into a shooting match with the Bear.

The Wogs are on their own on this , despite proclamations of "solidarity" and "right to protect itself and its territory" . Obama's words were very clear in what it DIDNT say , which is, about shooting at planes outside it's territory.
Last edited by vina on 25 Nov 2015 10:58, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 25 Nov 2015 10:56

moderate nukes for moderate terrorists.
Since moderate terrorists use moderate bullets for shooting at ejecting pilots.
seems fair enough. :mrgreen:

latest from USA
Drone Whistleblower Claim – Pilots Often High on Drugs; Refer to Children as “Fun Size Terrorists”

The killings, part of the Obama administration’s targeted assassination program, are aiding terrorist recruitment and thus undermining the program’s goal of eliminating such fighters, the veterans added. Drone operators refer to children as “fun-size terrorists” and liken killing them to “cutting the grass before it grows too long,” said one of the operators, Michael Haas, a former senior airman in the Air Force. Haas also described widespread drug and alcohol abuse, further stating that some operators had flown missions while impaired.


http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2015/11/24 ... errorists/

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Shreeman » 25 Nov 2015 10:59

Anant, Enough "respected experts" on moscow have pointed to the danger of things escalating to a war with turkey. Now the clock isnt all that far from midnight and stranger things have happened if large numbers of casualties result among the thousands of russians or myriad westerners holidaying in syria. Even a broken clock is right two times a day. The CT theorists may have something here. Erdogan is a dictator and putin is unlikely to turn out to be a wimp. Something will eventually give.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby deejay » 25 Nov 2015 11:01

For a keen understanding of US support or position of moderate terrorists in Syria -FSA (or if you want Al Nusra or ISIS) , a good look at Senator McCain interviews, Joe Biden interviews, Jokerry interviews posted on previous pages of this thread will be a good start.

Also, to sustain the terrorism, how the terrorists actually gained the latest and the bestest weapons, the modus operandi of an escaping Iraqi army leaving their latest and bestest weapons was utilised twice (at least). Also, remember the first time ISIS attacked the Iraqi garrisons they had 800 fighters in that group against a US trained, heavily armed Iraqi garrison. Iraqis did not even begin to fight and joined ISIS lock-stock and barrel. The Shiites who were part of the army were summarily executed. While the US also air dropped tons of weapons which filtered through to the terrorists of all hues.

Next, one year of active US air campaign and ISIS went from strength to strength. Contrast this to the results of 01&1/2 months of Russian bombings. More so when the Russians have been accused of mostly bombing the moderate terrorists.

Moderate terrorists / FSA / Al Nusra etc have had a lot of their innards analysed in the previous pages here so who exactly were the 'moderate terrorists' - their neck- saws were sharper hence the pain was 'moderate'?

Turkey (and Error -do- Gun, his son and his daughter) personally protected the ISIS through Kobane and thereafter in full public glare. Their best friends could not ignore this, yet no one sanctioned Turkey. The oil supply out of ISIS was to and through Billal Erode -da - gand's company with the family making money out of ISIS illegal oil trade. All this while the sister was busy providing medical relief to the fighters earning the family dollars.

IMO, ISIS has a Caliph and it is not Baghdadi but Ankari.

Given how interested parties are intertwined in this Syria - ISIS mess in both the US of A and Turkey, it is hard to see that these forces will not act together to counteract what Russia does in Syria. Sinai, Turkman shooting and there will be more.

Russia surprised US by its move and effective air campaign in Syria. The missile strike from Caspian took the Americans and everyone by surprise. For 01 month the initial 'sakinaah' effect lasted. The supporters of ISIS / moderate terrorists of Syria have now struck back at Russia twice.

The escalation of hostilities is by Turkey, yet it is being made to look like Russia holds the key to whether the war will spread. This is the situational blackmail, the West and Turkey is using against Russia. Somehow, I am able to draw strong parallels with this situation in our context. If the forces which have been attacked take revenge, they will be the ones who started the catastrophic consequences and not the initial aggressor.

My 2 barrels of oil - drilled in the ORR fields

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 25 Nov 2015 11:03

is Idlib under total nusra control or it is beseiged and holding out?

the maps make it all green so I assume its the first case.

Jisr and Idlib are junctions of road networks and logistics so for SAA it would be vital to regain them to shut down the tap to Nusrah permanently. I expect they would still sneak around in the mountains and forests like in cashmere, but more of a nuisance value that can be contained and bombed later.

imo what options does russia have if turkey closes the bosporus to russian ships . is there a international treaty that guarantees the right of ships to navigate through bosporus? even if they do not close, russian ships supplying syria come through everyday and could be attacked easily on both sides....turks could also allow sea borne suicide bombers to target Rus ships on their long slow voyage.

turkey has a even more 'strategic' location than TSP. the only reason they got to be in NATO.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Anant » 25 Nov 2015 11:03

Something may give but I'd bet my last red cent that even Putin is more sane than some of the advocacy in this room. No nuclear war, tactical or otherwise is happening. Sure, Turkey may be acting unilaterally or as a proxy for the US or NATO, but short of Russia shooting a Turkish plane or two or increasing its sortie rate or placing missile batteries, jack squat is happening. In the meantime, it will be fun to see the so called grandmaster Putin play our pigeonmaster President Obama in chess. Don't underestimate Pigeons :)

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 25 Nov 2015 11:05

vina wrote:The Wogs are on their own on this , despite proclamations of "solidarity" and "right to protect itself and its territory" . Obama's words were very clear in what it DIDNT say , which is, about shooting at planes outside it's territory.


err the wogs are not on their own. If Putin displays hesitation and is willing to compromise at every step USA will get bolder and pretend to help the wogs by sly terror strikes. The wogs smile for the camera and Obummer smiles for camera. wink wink nod nod. Unkil senses a weakness from Putin's reasonable positions. This is a situation where you need game-changer moves every fortnight. This is not a stable status quo maintained battlefield. This battle has to decide who shall lead the world into the future.

If there is no threat of nukes now, then the entire idea is pointless.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Shreeman » 25 Nov 2015 11:08

Anant wrote:Something may give but I'd bet my last red cent that even Putin is more sane than some of the advocacy in this room. No nuclear war, tactical or otherwise is happening. Sure, Turkey may be acting unilaterally or as a proxy for the US or NATO, but short of Russia shooting a Turkish plane or two or increasing its sortie rate or placing missile batteries, jack squat is happening. In the meantime, it will be fun to see the so called grandmaster Putin play our pigeonmaster President Obama in chess. Don't underestimate Pigeons :)


Its an airliner+fighter/bomber+helicopter right now. Not just a su24. The russian reaction will be telling. You can bet the turks lose a plane or two, with only when being the question. You can bet the rest of the west sees "syrians" take some things out of the air too.

At that point how far the turkey-shoot will go depends upon who chickens out. happy thanksgiving!

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Anant » 25 Nov 2015 11:11

Shreeman,

An eye for eye as the old testament says. Let's see what happens. Happy Thanksgiving to you as well and thanks for the puns. Very clever of you.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby vina » 25 Nov 2015 11:20

Singha wrote:imo what options does russia have if turkey closes the bosporus to russian ships . is there a international treaty that guarantees the right of ships to navigate through bosporus?.


Closing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles without a formal declaration of war where Turkey is threatened will be a clear violation of the Montreux Convention and would be a causus belie for declaration of war on Turkey.

The straits are controlled by Turkey and any attack on transiting ships would be it's responsibility (even by "non state" Paki like scum) and would again be a causus belie.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Prem » 25 Nov 2015 11:25

Turkey will be slaughtered this week, Don't know if its bird or country.
Mahabharata had the same riddle and WW3 will start with similar suspense. Then Drona lost his head and now Jihad & Jihadis will loose their head.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 25 Nov 2015 11:26

Facing Consequences: Russia to Respond in Kind to Downing of Su-24 Bomber - Nov 25, 2015

In an interview with Sputnik, former head of the Turkish General Staff's Intelligence Department Hakki Pekin condemned Turkey's decision to shoot down a Russian Su-24 bomber, describing it as a "big mistake."

He specifically pointed to the fact that "the warplane posed no threat to Turkey's security and showed no hostile intentions."

Referring to Russia's 2008 sanctions against Georgia and its ongoing sanctions on Ukraine, Pekin suggested that Russia's response to the downing of the Su-24 will be very tough.

"Apart from sanctions, Russia also deployed its Iskander missile systems in Kaliningrad in retaliation against NATO's increasing activities. You have to understand that Russia has a very strong potential in this field," Pekin said. :idea:

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 25 Nov 2015 11:31

Jhujar wrote:Turkey will be slaughtered this week, Don't know if its bird or country.
Mahabharata had the same riddle and WW3 will start with similar suspense. Then Drona lost his head and now Jihad & Jihadis will loose their head.

:rotfl:

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 25 Nov 2015 11:34

Ankara defends ISIS, Russia has data on Turkey’s financial interest in oil from ISIS - PM Medvedev

https://www.rt.com/news/323373-ankara-d ... -medvedev/

Some Turkish officials have ‘direct financial interest’ in the oil trade with the terrorist group Islamic State, Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev said as he detailed possible Russian retaliation to Turkey’s downing of a Russian warplane in Syria on Tuesday.

LIVE UPDATES: Russian warplane shot down at Syria-Turkey border

Medvedev said Ankara is protecting Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) because of the illegal oil trade and revenues Turkish officials get from it.

Turkey shot down a Russian bomber over Syria on Tuesday, claiming it had violated Turkish airspace. Russia says no violation took place and considers the hostile act as 'a stab in the back' and direct assistance to terrorist forces in Syria.

DETAILS TO FOLLOW

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby durairaaj » 25 Nov 2015 11:36

What has just started,
Crusade-X?
WW-III?

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby bhalluka » 25 Nov 2015 11:37

It appears that this guy Alparslan Celik who claims to have shot at the two pilots

http://www.reuters.com/video/2015/11/24 ... =366438602

is a Turkish citizen, son of an ex-mayor from the neo-nazi Grey Wolf movement.

Interesting bunch these Grey Wolves.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey_Wolves_(organization)

They were used as part Operation Gladio in the past per some open source literature

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gladio

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Vayutuvan » 25 Nov 2015 11:43

Gladios are real? :eek: raju would be thrilled.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Vayutuvan » 25 Nov 2015 11:46

The people who would be most affected by closing if Bosporus straights would be the U.S - not the Russians nor Iran.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Vayutuvan » 25 Nov 2015 11:53

habal ji: unravelling of NATO is certainly not pointless. I heard that line - that NATO is crumbling - back in late 70s from a naxal friend of mine. I had no idea then what be really meant vecause I had no idea about neither NATO nor Warsaw Pact. I also no idea about dialectic materialism that man boy used to spout.
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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 25 Nov 2015 11:54

Turkey Russia jet: Marine killed in pilot rescue bid
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34917485
The head of Nato said it stood in solidarity with Turkey as the Kremlin warned of "serious consequences".

US President Barack Obama later assured his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a phone call of US support for his country's right to defend its sovereignty.

The White House said both presidents had agreed on the importance of de-escalating the situation.

Turkey said the jet had strayed into its airspace but Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted the Su-24 had been hit by an air-to-air missile while flying over Syrian territory.

Nato's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he backed the Turks' assessment.

"We stand in solidarity with Turkey and support the territorial integrity of our Nato ally, Turkey,'' he said after an emergency meeting of the bloc.

He also called for both sides to de-escalate the situation.

President Putin described the downing of the plane as a "stab in the back".

Breaking off military contacts with Turkey, Russia's defence ministry said a cruiser equipped with an air defence system would be deployed in the Mediterranean to destroy "any targets representing a potential danger" for Russian forces in Syria.


Russian bombers carrying out air strikes over Syria will now be escorted by fighters, the military said.

President Obama said it was important to find out exactly what had happened and to take measures to "discourage any kind of escalation".

But he said the incident pointed to an "ongoing problem" with Russian action in Syria, saying if Russia had been targeting IS, rather than "moderate" Syrian opposition forces, such incidents would be unlikely. :eek:

Russia and Turkey have found themselves on opposing sides in Syria's conflict, with Russia supporting its ally President Bashar al-Assad and Turkey calling for his ousting.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 25 Nov 2015 11:55

What a Moron Obama is so who are Moderate Opposition who sell US weapons to ISIS. `


https://www.rt.com/news/323373-ankara-d ... -medvedev/

According to Medvedev, Russia is considering canceling several important projects with Turkey and barring Turkish companies from the Russian market. Russia has already recommended its citizens not to go Turkey citing terrorist threats, which have resulted in several tourist operators withdrawing tours to Turkey from the market.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby deejay » 25 Nov 2015 12:02

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/669416996698746881

Agence France-PresseVerified account
‏@AFP
#INFOGRAPHIC Map showing contested views of the flight path of the Russian SU-24 shot down by Turkey on Tuesday @AFP

Image


One more infographic with both versions of truth.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby sarkar » 25 Nov 2015 12:02

What kind of NATO force chants A.H.A. while shooting down fighter pilots in the air surviving for their life?

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Samudragupta » 25 Nov 2015 12:03

Its pretty clear that Turkey has acted unilaterally to draw the red line for the Russians...Gentlemen...we are not seeing a nuclear war for downing a Rus bomber...however macho Putin may be he is lot more saner than the ISIS...Erdogan took this gamble actually trusting the sane response from the Russians....the most likely scenario for the Putin is to stay on course in Syria and complete the mission there...off course it will scratch the back of Turkey... but i believe they have to deal with it.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Aditya_V » 25 Nov 2015 12:07

If Ergodan gets away with it, he will try more tricks and Russians are downt he same slippery slope, they did the same mistake with Pakis in Afganistan. Also the morale of Russian Armed forces will take a beating. Unless Turkish Armed forces, specially Air force in charge or the Pilots are made to pay in blood and in turn have a go at Ergodan RUssia is doomed.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Kashi » 25 Nov 2015 12:12

Samudragupta wrote:Its pretty clear that Turkey has acted unilaterally to draw the red line for the Russians...Gentlemen...we are not seeing a nuclear war for downing a Rus bomber...however macho Putin may be he is lot more saner than the ISIS...Erdogan took this gamble actually trusting the sane response from the Russians....the most likely scenario for the Putin is to stay on course in Syria and complete the mission there...off course it will scratch the back of Turkey... but i believe they have to deal with it.


Then what's stopping Turkey from upping the ante? If they can down one plane, maybe they'll try and down more in the future, daring the Russians to respond and gradually these provocations will increase.

The thing is can Russia come up with a response that enables them to stay on course in Syria and at the same time deliver a timely thappad to Syria? I wonder what options are out there for them.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby kit » 25 Nov 2015 12:17

The Russians are no walk overs., if one goes by history, this is one country that destroyed the greatest militaries of all time before , The great french army and then the Nazis suffered colossal losses and never to recover. Russia has also shown that it can take punishment and mete out a horrible avenge .. it is indeed quite likely that a FAE like tactical nuclear blast can hit the next fuel supply line of the ISIS , only this time it can be near to the turkey border !

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Samudragupta » 25 Nov 2015 12:20

The shooting of the Rus bomber has been done exactly to provoke the Russians and let them away from the mission they are here to accomplish....Its a Trap....Putin is not a fool to fall for it....He has just moved Russian Air defence ship with in built S-300 near Lakhatia...Russians are seen as good guys here...and they want to distract the world's attention from the Ukraine....there won't be any reactionary moves from the Russians...Putin will respond...but the time and place will be his choosing....and believe me it will be much more strategic than just downing a Turkish fighter/bomber...

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby vina » 25 Nov 2015 12:26

Putin will respond...but the time and place will be his choosing....and believe me it will be much more strategic than just downing a Turkish fighter/bomber.

Yes. First will be to get all the Russian citizens (vast number of Russian tourists in Turkey at all times, very conspicuous from what I remember when I visited Turkey) back home from Turkey.

This will unfold over the next days and weeks. Not hours.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Kashi » 25 Nov 2015 12:28

kit wrote:The Russians are no walk overs., if one goes by history, this is one country that destroyed the greatest militaries of all time before , The great french army and then the Nazis suffered colossal losses and never to recover. Russia has also shown that it can take punishment and mete out a horrible avenge .. it is indeed quite likely that a FAE like tactical nuclear blast can hit the next fuel supply line of the ISIS , only this time it can be near to the turkey border !


Yes, but those events happened on Russian soil against conventional forces whose logistics were stretched and battered (by the Russians themselves and General Winter!!). The Manchurian strategic initiative was against an enemy that was on its knees. The Soviet Afghan adventure way from the home ground didn't turn out too well.

No one disputes what Russia is capable of, but they are not on the home turf and that throws up a different set of challenges. They will have to calibrate their response accordingly and at the same time stay focussed on their objectives. It will be very interesting to see how they respond, but respond they must and swiftly so. Else, it only emboldens the jihadi Erdogan to escalate the tensions even further.

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Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Austin » 25 Nov 2015 12:32

Confirmed one pilot of Su-24 saved

One of 2 Russian pilots shot down by Turkey picked up by Syrian Army – Russian ambassador to France
https://www.rt.com/news/323377-russian- ... ved-syria/

"One on board was wounded when he parachuted down and killed in a savage way on the ground by jihadists in the area. The other managed to escape. According to the latest information he has been picked up by the Syrian Army and should be going back to the Russian Air Force base," Ambassador Aleksandr Orlov told Europe 1 radio, Reuters reported.


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