The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Oct 2015 19:11

http://www.theatlantic.com/internationa ... in/408694/

The Link Between Putin’s Military Campaigns in Syria and Ukraine

Both countries host Russian naval bases. What role do ports play in Moscow’s foreign policy?
Russian sailors in Sevastopol, Crimea Pavel Rebrov / Reuters
Edward Delman
| Oct 2, 2015

In the past year and a half, Russia has intervened militarily in two countries, Ukraine and Syria, where revolution and extreme political polarization threatened the governments of pro-Russian leaders. And that’s pretty much where the similarities between the campaigns end, except for one other commonality: Both Syria and Ukraine are home to Russian naval bases—in Tartus and Sevastopol, respectively.

Ports, and especially warm-water ports, have long played an important role in Russian foreign policy. Russia isn’t landlocked, of course, but Europe-facing ports such as Arkhangelsk and St. Petersburg were historically ice-locked for part of the year before the advent of the icebreaker in the 20th century (Russia’s port at Murmansk is ice-free, but it was built in 1915, and the Russian port at Vladivostok is on the Pacific). Moreover, none of these ports, even when open for business, allow for easy access to the bustling Mediterranean Sea. This has left Russia with an economic and military incentive to expand toward warmer waters. Beginning just before the reign of Peter the Great in the late 17th century, Russia fought a series of wars with the Ottoman Empire in a quest to establish a warm-water port off the Black Sea. By 1812, Russia had managed to secure control of the entire northern coast of the Black Sea.

Watch What Putin Does, Not What He Says

Even with year-round ports on the Black Sea, access to the Mediterranean was still governed by the whims of whoever controlled the Dardanelles and Bosporus straits. During World War I, Russia made a never-consummated secret agreement with Britain and France that would have granted it control of Constantinople and the Turkish straits if the Allies proved victorious. Although Russia enjoyed access to naval bases throughout the Mediterranean during the Soviet era, the collapse of the U.S.S.R. brought an end to that access, with the exception of Russia’s base in Tartus, Syria.

Tartus lies on Syria’s western coast and has had a Russian naval presence since 1971. At the time, the Soviet Union was Syria’s primary arms supplier and used the deep-water port as a destination for shipments of Soviet weapons. Russia managed to maintain access to Tartus after the fall of the U.S.S.R. due in part to a deal that wrote off Syrian debts to the Soviet Union. The Russian naval base itself is reportedly less than impressive—it lacks large-scale repair facilities and a command-and-control capability, which would allow Russia to oversee operations from Tartus—but it is able to accommodate all Russian naval vessels except for the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, and offers a means of offloading arms and personnel.

The city and naval base of Sevastopol, on the Crimean peninsula, were founded in 1783 by the Russian Empire, and the city remained part of Russia until its transfer to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1978. Six years after the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia renounced territorial claims to the city in exchange for a 20-year lease of the warm-water naval base. It’s a military asset with substantial strategic and symbolic value. The base houses Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and Mediterranean Task Force, the latter of which was only reestablished in 2013, and helps Russia project power in the Black Sea region and into the Mediterranean. The port was also the site of two major wartime sieges. As of last year, 15,000 Russian naval personnel were stationed at the base; in 2008, it served as a staging ground for blockades and amphibious landings during Russia’s war with Georgia.

From north to south, the markers point to Sevastopol, the Bosporus, and Tartus. Russia is outside the picture, off to the upper right. (Google Maps)

Jeffrey Mankoff, a Russia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me that while Russia’s invasion of Crimea in the spring of 2014, following the revolution that ousted pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, may have occurred regardless, “the presence of the base [at Sevastopol] made doing something there more urgent.” He also noted that Russia chose to go as far as annexing Crimea, thereby ensuring control over Sevastopol, whereas it did not take the same approach in Abkhazia or South Ossetia—two breakaway Georgian republics allied with Russia but not endowed with Russian naval bases.

The base in Tartus may be less valuable than its counterpart in Sevastopol, but the location of the former matters. As the sole Russian naval base beyond the Bosporus—which is controlled by Turkey, a NATO member—Tartus helps establish Russia’s presence in the Mediterranean. “A big part of their continued interest in Syria and in [Syrian President Bashar] Assad has to do with” the Tartus base, Mankoff said. “I think Russia does have a bigger geopolitical view of the world, regards the eastern Mediterranean as an area of importance, and wants to be sure that it can secure its interests there.” According to General Philip Breedlove, NATO’s top commander, Tartus may also be part of a Russian effort to establish an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) bubble over Syria, designed to prevent NATO forces from taking offensive action against Russia and its allies in the region. As Vice Admiral Viktor Chirkov, the commander in chief of the Russian Navy, succinctly put it, “This base is essential to us.”

The Kremlin has demonstrated that restoring a strong presence on the high seas is a priority, and Vladimir Putin tends to act on his priorities.

Both Sevastopol and Tartus play a role in compensating for Russia’s geographic deficiencies as well. “Russia’s always had the challenge of not having great maritime access, just as a result of its geography, and so to the extent that it wants to be an active player in [the Mediterranean] … it has to have some ability to operate outside of its own coastal waters,” Mankoff explained. This ambition is enshrined in Russia’s new maritime strategy, detailed in the Maritime Doctrine of the Russian Federation 2020. The strategy places particular emphasis on the Atlantic Ocean due to “NATO expansion, the need to integrate Crimea and the Sevastopol naval base into the Russian economy, and to re-establish a permanent Russian Navy presence in the Mediterranean,” according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. The doctrine also stresses the importance of the Arctic, given its mineral resources and the easy access it offers to both the Atlantic and Pacific.

All this isn’t to suggest that naval strategy is the primary motivation behind Russia’s interventions to support pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine and Assad in Syria. In the case of Syria, Putin has a track record of opposing Islamist movements like ISIS (in fact, that track record is one of the factors that brought him to power in the first place). Mankoff suggested that Russia’s Syria policy could be a mix of the personal and the political, saying, “If Putin believes that Assad is his guy and that he has a personal obligation to him, then that may play a role above and beyond what the professional diplomats and strategic thinkers believe is going on here.” Additionally, Mankoff argued that the Russian government might be deliberately trying to draw a comparison between its unflinching support of Assad and America’s brittle support of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, which dissipated during the Arab Spring.

But even if Russia isn’t exclusively mobilizing its military to secure naval bases, the Kremlin has clearly demonstrated that restoring a strong presence on the high seas is a priority. And Vladimir Putin tends to act on his priorities.

PS:Wait and see what the PRC does in the ME/Levant before India even thinks of it.They will race off the blocks long before the MEA mandarins...sorry,mice in South Block realize that the "cat" has gone-a-hunting! Many years,decades ago in fact I predicted the PLAN arriving in the IOR,SL,etc.,was derided...no longer. I predicted aeons ago again its foray into Pak,Gwadar and a land corridor to the Gulf through Pak to Iran.almost a fait accompli. PRC entities are even in POK now.Watch it offer Iraq help to deal with ISIS taking a cue from Russia.

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 04 Oct 2015 19:23

Well said Phil, and deploying IN units to the region if only to observe, can encourage the diplomats to act further than they might have done in getting some kind of ceasefire after the pounding. Some reports claim that the PLAN are in the Eastern Med, but that is mainly speculation, but the IAF in IRAQ is something to be considered.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 04 Oct 2015 19:30

Israel supports dropping bum on jeehad anywhere. Unfortunately they also sell to TSP, don't they? I am SHOCKED

that PAF hasn't gone rushing in to Defend Freedom in Syria - don't they have jarnails who feel the ""kati" (bite/itch) as much as our dear postors here?

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 04 Oct 2015 19:35

UB they were invited to Yemen by their GCC and Saudi cousins but kindly declined the offer. I wonder if the Saudis or GCC would allow PAF pilots to fly their aircraft as volunteers against the Russians in syria. It could be pakistan's condor legion

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Oct 2015 19:47

A new Ottoman-Saud-Gulfie alliance in the offing to take on the Russians? Things could get really nasty in the region if a clash between the two entities gets direct.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/o ... g-of-assad

Gulf states plan military response as Putin raises the stakes in Syria

Russia’s bombing of rebel positions has angered countries in the region that have been trying to oust Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad. Analysts say Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey are now likely to increase military aid to the anti-Assad groups they support

Russia carries out air strikes
Pinpoint air strikes in Syria – Russia’s military intervention is seen as more provocative than decisive by opponents of President Bashar al-Assad. Photograph: Tass

Emma Graham-Harrison and Saeed Kamali Dehghan
Sunday 4 October 2015 00.05 BST Last modified on Sunday 4 October 2015 00.47 BST

Russian fighter jets launched from a new airbase in Syria have persuaded western critics to mute their demands for the removal of President Bashar al-Assad, but another group of his opponents sees Moscow’s intervention as more provocative than decisive.

Regional powers have quietly, but effectively, channelled funds, weapons and other support to rebel groups making the biggest inroads against the forces from Damascus. In doing so, they are investing heavily in a conflict which they see as part of a wider regional struggle for influence with bitter rival Iran.

In a week when Russia made dozens of bombing raids, those countries have made it clear that they remain at least as committed to removing Assad as Moscow is to preserving him.

“There is no future for Assad in Syria,” Saudi foreign minister Adel Al-Jubeir warned, a few hours before the first Russian bombing sorties began. If that was not blunt enough, he spelled out that if the president did not step down as part of a political transition, his country would embrace a military option, “which also would end with the removal of Bashar al-Assad from power”. With at least 39 civilians reported dead in the first bombing raids, the prospect of an escalation between backers of Assad and his opponents is likely to spell more misery for ordinary Syrians.

“The Russian intervention is a massive setback for those states backing the opposition, particularly within the region – Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey – and is likely to elicit a strong response in terms of a counter-escalation,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

As the Syrian civil war has unfolded, Saudi Arabia has been clear about its position, say analysts. “Since the beginning of the uprising in Syria, the view in Riyadh has been that Bashar al-Assad must go. There is no indication what-soever that Riyadh will change this position,” said Mohammed Alyahya, associate fellow at the King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh.

“What is clear to Riyadh and its regional allies is that the recent Russian and Iranian escalation will only create a more unstable region and spill more blood,” he said.

Riyadh has focused support on rebels in the south, say analysts, while allies Turkey and Qatar have reportedly backed northern rebels, including conservative Islamist militias such as Ahrar al Sham.

Countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar want President Assad removed from office. Photograph: The Asahi Shimbun

That group, in alliance with the al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat al Nusra, recently reached a local ceasefire deal with Assad in the north. Its success in taking on government forces is thought to have been one trigger for the Russian bombing campaign and put them among the jets’ first targets.

“Most probably, the coming efforts will focus on boosting the effectiveness of major coalitions, co-ordination and co-operation between the most influential and effective groups in Syria,” said regional analyst Ali Bakeer.

Concerns that Assad’s government could collapse, leaving a dangerous power vacuum, had persuaded the allies to support a push for a political transition as well as backing fighters, but the Russian bombing campaign changed that calculation, he said.

“There is a high-level, very close co-operation and co-ordination between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. They are almost on the same page in Syria.”

Turkish support has been hampered by domestic turmoil, as it prepares, in effect, to rerun a controversial election after a ceasefire with Kurdish groups collapsed. Qatar and Saudi Arabia, however, clearly have the funds, connections and political will to respond to Moscow’s escalation.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar are already embroiled in an expensive and bloody war in Yemen that may limit both their military and financial resources. They have also so far deferred to western bans on transferring hi-tech weapons – including missiles that could take down aircraft – over fears that they might change hands in the chaos of the war and be used against their makers.

“The uncertain question today is the degree of power combined with efficiency that regional powers will be willing to bring to the table,” said Barnes-Dacey. “Do the Saudis now try to take matters decisively into their hands, including by providing rebels with sophisticated weaponry long denied them?

“The new [Saudi] king [Salman] has shown a willingness to be much more assertive and take measures into the kingdom’s own hands. If the Saudis see the situation slipping out of their hands, and there is a real sense that the Iranians are consolidating their position in Syria, you could see much stronger response.”

That is unlikely to go as far as troops on the ground, however, and not only because so many assets are already tied up in Yemen.

“A Saudi military role would be too much of an escalation,” said analyst Hassan Hassan, author of Isis: Inside the Army of Terror. “It’s seen as far from Syria, not seen as a direct security threat. With Yemen, people have accepted [Saudi] hegemony for years, unlike Syria, where Iran is seen as dominant.

“The best way to respond to the Russian intervention is to engage the rebels more and step up support so they can face down the escalation and create a balance on the ground,” he said. “The Russians will [then] realise there are limits to what they can achieve in Syria, and modify their approach.” But the wider regional struggle for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran makes it almost impossible for Riyadh to walk away, whatever the cost.

Saudi officials are particularly worried that the Americans might retreat from their strategy of containing Iran, following the landmark deal struck in July to curb Tehran’s nuclear programme in return for lifting international sanctions.

“Tensions really are escalating in the wake of the nuclear deal,” said Jane Kinninmont, a senior research fellow at international thinktank Chatham House. “Saudis feel that the US and the rest of the international community are doing nothing about this, and they are trying to be at the forefront of efforts to contain Iran.”

In this context, there may be a small amount of relief in Riyadh over the Russian role, as stepped-up importance for Moscow could edge out some of the Iranian influence.

“Is there a trade-off here? The more one has Russia, the less one has Iran. I imagine that’s one of the ways Russians are selling the idea to Saudis not to look at this negatively,” said Daniel Levy, Middle East and North Africa programme director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

But, overall, the risks from escalation go beyond Syria, he said. “The degree to which Tehran and Riyadh are now in a confrontation mode across a number of regional hotspots is worrisome,” said Levy. “Who can act now as the de-escalating mediator?

“Americans are not in a position to do that, nor Russians, and Iran and Saudi Arabia are not sufficiently talking to each other … you’re now left with almost no one at senior levels on the respective sides who can engage with each other. This is going to be a dangerous place.”

Additional reporting by Saeed Kamali Dehghan

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Oct 2015 20:08

none of the gulf sheikhdoms are apparently Stinger manpad users. but turkey makes it under license ... which makes it harder to track if some were to be passed on to the rebels. the Frogfoots and helis would be within its envelope.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Oct 2015 20:10

as per wikipedia turkey gave the rebels stingers long ago
Syrian civil war[edit]
In the Syrian civil war, Turkey reportedly helped to transport to the anti-government rebels a limited amount of FIM-92 Stingers.[41][42]

this from 2012
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/world ... d=all&_r=0

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 04 Oct 2015 21:16

I was thinking about this possibility this afternoon....An Igla shipmen could have been mysteriously hijacked in the caucasus and made it's way to the Kurdish Pesh Margha or the Houthis. Russians will know how to play this game.

member_29001 · Post by **member_29001** » 04 Oct 2015 21:41

Its is about time Russia finish this unfinished business and take Constantinople.
And help reunification of Cyprus.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 04 Oct 2015 23:07

ysnarayanan_brf wrote:Its is about time Russia finish this unfinished business and take Constantinople.
And help reunification of Cyprus.

Well let's not get carried away. I think you're crediting the Russians with far greater force projection than they really have. Turkey and Russia don't even share a land border. Even if they did, I doubt Russia could pull off an invasion of Turkey. I'm actually more worried about the reverse scenario: if Erdogan ordered his military to overrun the Russian enclave in Syria, there'd be no way the Russians could stop them without resorting to tactical nukes. Another scenario is Turkish forces could simply occupy ISIS and rebel-held areas and just sit there. The presence of Turkish troops would act as a shield against Russian air attacks and their presence would deter any advance by Syrian troops. It would be a fait accompli; basically forcing the Russians to start WW3 if they want to achieve their aims in Syria.

In this scenario Russia would probably be forced to back down. All the more reason we need Chinese and Indian forces to take part in this campaign. Turkey, Saudi and Qatar (with US backing) might be bold enough to directly confront Russia but I doubt they'd be willing to take on all three of us (Russia + China + India). This is a crucial moment; either we abandon Russia and watch them fail, with negative implications for India in the long run, or we all take a risk and band together.

Picture the govts of Syria, Iraq and Iran working closely with and backed by Russian, Indian and Chinese firepower. Together we present a powerful united front against the US and Sunni bloc (GCC\Turkey\Pakistan). The joint working relationships and military contacts we forge in such an operation would prove invaluable. If that sounds too ambitious, another option is Indian forces could deploy to Iraq at the invitation of their govt and restrict our targets to ISIS forces in Iraqi territory. Iraqi, Kurd and Iranian forces would act as our eyes and ears on the ground. This arrangement would be less controversial than IAF deploying to Syria. If we go in at the behest of the Iraqi govt strictly to fight ISIS, we leave the US in an awkward position. Do they condemn India for bombing ISIS in Iraq, something the US is supposedly doing already?

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 04 Oct 2015 23:18

if turkey attacks, it is under NATO, the question is whether US is ready for WWIII??

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 04 Oct 2015 23:30

YK what you have said suggests that this risks becoming a 6 way nuclear flashpoint more so than Cashmere, if Erdogan with a election pending shows some ambition. The Turkish military would love such a challenge no doubt, but i fear that Putin might resort to the Pakistan play-book of raising the nuclear ante, even if the escalation chain is kept low. I agree that India should sound out Iraq and the US about dealing with Isis and their al-quaida affiliates in Iraq. In this issue, India cannot remain under the parapet and should commit to the anti-wahabi cause within the coming weeks as the future cost of not eliminating this menace far exceeds the present sacrifices.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 04 Oct 2015 23:39

Y. Kanan wrote:
ysnarayanan_brf wrote:Its is about time Russia finish this unfinished business and take Constantinople.
And help reunification of Cyprus.
Well let's not get carried away. I think you're crediting the Russians with far greater force projection than they really have. Turkey and Russia don't even share a land border. Even if they did, I doubt Russia could pull off an invasion of Turkey. I'm actually more worried about the reverse scenario: if Erdogan ordered his military to overrun the Russian enclave in Syria, there'd be no way the Russians could stop them without resorting to tactical nukes. Another scenario is Turkish forces could simply occupy ISIS and rebel-held areas and just sit there. The presence of Turkish troops would act as a shield against Russian air attacks and their presence would deter any advance by Syrian troops. It would be a fait accompli; basically forcing the Russians to start WW3 if they want to achieve their aims in Syria.

In this scenario Russia would probably be forced to back down. All the more reason we need Chinese and Indian forces to take part in this campaign. Turkey, Saudi and Qatar (with US backing) might be bold enough to directly confront Russia but I doubt they'd be willing to take on all three of us (Russia + China + India). This is a crucial moment; either we abandon Russia and watch them fail, with negative implications for India in the long run, or we all take a risk and band together.

Picture the govts of Syria, Iraq and Iran working closely with and backed by Russian, Indian and Chinese firepower. Together we present a powerful united front against the US and Sunni bloc (GCC\Turkey\Pakistan). The joint working relationships and military contacts we forge in such an operation would prove invaluable. If that sounds too ambitious, another option is Indian forces could deploy to Iraq at the invitation of their govt and restrict our targets to ISIS forces in Iraqi territory. Iraqi, Kurd and Iranian forces would act as our eyes and ears on the ground. This arrangement would be less controversial than IAF deploying to Syria. If we go in at the behest of the Iraqi govt strictly to fight ISIS, we leave the US in an awkward position. Do they condemn India for bombing ISIS in Iraq, something the US is supposedly doing already?

India isn't going to get involved. Let the world powers cripple each other so that we can chip away more influence.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 04 Oct 2015 23:41

Don't forget Yemen.
Some shipment of Russian latest missiles can find their way to yeme, where GCC forces are
bogged down. if Houtis can go a few miles inside SA then the sheikhs will be wetting their
disha-dasha.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 05 Oct 2015 00:04

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E ... -Hezbollah

Hezbollah`s involvement in the Syria war and why Israel wants Syria to be boiling.
Hezbollah according to the article is the biggest challenge to Israeli security forces and is armed with various missiles by Iran which makes it a dangerous opponent.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 05 Oct 2015 00:09

Things seem to be going badly for Yemeni Freedom Fighters. Saudis, and assorted Sunni terrorists, all sweeping along the coast. Maybe the Iranian Liberation Forces have been withdrawn to go to Syria. No way to hold Sanaa, as far as I can see. Tanks and White-Toyota PickUp Yahoos on the ground, Saudi F-15s in the air.

So the Houthis might as well relocate to the comfy Saudi towns.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 05 Oct 2015 00:15

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -East.html

Their backers in the Gulf and Turkey - with White House approval - sent in some Konkurs anti-tank missiles and other military kit. It wasn’t much; the first regime advance was stopped with just 50 Konkurs missile systems, according to one rebel source at the time. But it was enough.

This Gulf alliance is already fighting Iranian-aligned forces in Yemen. It believes it is winning that war.
In doing so, it is in formal alliance with al-Qaeda's Yemeni arm. It is a development which has caused mutters in Washington but no worse.
There seems no reason to suppose the alliance will not pursue a similar arrangement in Syria: indeed, Qatar is already dealing with Jabhat al-Nusra, the local al-Qaeda affiliate.

When they say, Russian strikes are going to increase extremism, it means they will start arming up terrorists even more.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 05 Oct 2015 00:23

Y. Kanan wrote: I'm 100% convinced they will turn on Central Asia and South Asia next. India will be in their sights, with massive GCC money, US surveillance and intel support, and an endless supply of jihadis to do the dirty work. Pakistan and Bangladesh will provide the safe havens and much of the manpower, while US\GCC uses their money and resources to stir up violence and insurrection from our muslim population.

To what end? IOW, what is the motive for creating cahos on such a large scale? India is not Syria or not even Iran.

member_29001 · Post by **member_29001** » 05 Oct 2015 01:47

Aussies are having second thoughts.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/adam-l ... 30376.html

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 05 Oct 2015 02:10

Austin wrote:
Singha wrote:Impact fused old school bombs with little propeller in back.
After impact when prop stops turning it explodes.

Ijn took put pearl harbour with such bombs!!

I don't think we have any such bombs except maybe for mig27
A bomb accuracy is as good as the aircraft drops it and the target it is supposed to take out.

Most modern aircraft with INS/GPS/Glonass can drop a dumb bomb with CEP of 5-10 meters , The Su-25 and 24 are the modernised the latter upgrade is called Gefest , You can just google for it

https://rostechnologiesblog.wordpress.c ... -accuracy/

More like 15-20 mtrs
LGBs get you 5-10 mtr CEP; w/GPS assist they can get you 1-2 mtrs but at lower slant ranges

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 05 Oct 2015 03:18

vayu tuvan wrote:To what end? IOW, what is the motive for creating cahos on such a large scale? India is not Syria or not even Iran.

You could ask what was the motive for spreading jihad across North Africa and hte Middle East. US foreign policy gurus use phrases like "creative destruction" and "opportunistic chaos" to describe their thinking. Spreading jihad into Central Asia and India will serve to tie down both Russia and India, keeping us locked in a cycle of violence and uncertainty. The Sunni bloc is probably more interested in destabilizing India whereas the US is no doubt more keen on Central Asia. The Jews as always are just happy to promote islamic violence anywhere in the world that isn't Isreal. Less militants targeting Isreal and more opportunity to sell Isreali arms to a desperate India. The US military industrial complex is simply happy to have more wars going on; makes it easier to justify their bloated existence and demand ever more taxpayer dollars.

And there's always secondary interests at play, too. For example the Sunni bloc wanted Syria taken over so they could pipe natural gas from the Gulf through Iraq and Syria to Europe. The US also supported this goal because it hurts Russia (by depriving them of the European market for natural gas). And of course the Jews just want the entire region in flames; they've long since made a devil's bargain with the Wahabbis in the Gulf so groups like ISIS are no threat to them.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Oct 2015 06:42

from footage of the syrian army vs rebels war, these attacks and advances are in no way the mass x firepower of what we expect a regular conventional army like IA to undertake. usually there were be a few tanks and IFVs prowling around, firing at urban targets, a few snipers, a few RPG shooters, one or two pieces of artillery. very few infantry to hold ground.

I have yet to see a proper tank attack with IFV and massed artillery support footage. its more like the never ending militia wars in lebanon used to be.

Russia needs to rebuild the syrian army if they want to secure and enlarge its holding
- will need huge amts of artillery and control system to network their fires - this needs training and lots of ammo and trucks to haul them around.....
- tanks with better ERA and slat armour packages
- drones to guide from above
- and subject to the limitations of manpower that Assad has.
- lots of grad and uragan MLRS for tactical use and Tochka for deep fires
- retrain the SAF for precision attacks and provide satellite intel and drone cover
- build up the sigint capabilities to disrupt and target rebel comms and logistics nodes - maybe wet lease some ground and IL22 Coot type kit.
on a war footing this is atleast a 12 month process. first you have to pick the right sets of people to train , make them trainers and get them into training more and more people. morale has to be built up. food & money has to be good.

pounding the rebels and putting more of them into turkey for the next refugee boat to greece is the other end of the problem to equalize things. just gulf money will not retain people who are given no rest + prospect of german asylum beckons. maybe Rus can even upscale the people smugglers in turkey to offer lower passage rates to rebel deserters and better boats to the west

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Oct 2015 06:44

one talwar class FFG has berthed in constantinople yesterday on a 3day visit to various ports in the Med.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Oct 2015 06:56

the turks have resettled around 3500 families of uighur daesh'is in idlib after chasing away local residents using good offices of IS. Turks have told these uighurs that this was their ancestral land and it was their right to settle there adjacent to Turkey. Chinese are watching antics of turks since a long time and will enter the theatre to teach the turks a lesson or two.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 05 Oct 2015 07:20

Singha wrote:Russia needs to rebuild the syrian army if they want to secure and enlarge its holding

Not just the Syrian army but the Iraqis, too. And this new axis of cooperation is the perfect opportunity for them to get started on that project.

Iraq should dump the US and instead work to model its armed forces after the Russians. Last time Iraq built an army on Soviet doctrine it was a disaster, but times have changed. Clearly these new Russian armed forces are not the sloppy, incompetent Red Army of decades past. The Russians are clearly having success at transitioning to a military force more akin to professional NATO armies. They have abandoned the old "quantity has a quality all its own" mantra and have embraced "quality over quantity" - a far sounder military doctrine for the modern age.

The US was never interested in building up a professional Iraqi military force anyways. The Saudi bloc never wanted a strong Iraq as long as the majority Shia were in power, and no doubt Washington was playing to their sensitivities. If Iraq wants a real military they're not going to get it from working with the US. Russia is a more reliable long-term ally from the Iraqis's point of view, and unlike Washington they aren't helping Iraq's enemies.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Oct 2015 07:44

iraqis are struggling to get american kit like f-16 they were promised while pakistan gets it quickly enough.
we have already seen the pathetic cessna armed with a couple hellfires they were given to go rout the ISIS

http://www.aopa.org/-/media/Images/AOPA ... ravan1.jpg

even the LTTE had a better air force.

it was only after they got some 12 Frogfoots from russia ready stock their AF has some real kit to play with.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Oct 2015 07:48

out of 36 F-16 ordered and paid for US has delivered 4 and kept 32 in arizona. in contrast Rus delivered 12 frogfoot within days. all of Iraqi helis are russia. why cannot america atleast given them some Cobras from the vast stock which TSPA always gets its dessert?

nitial payment for 18 aircraft made in September 2011. Follow-on order for 18 additional aircraft (36 total), announced in December 2011.[64]

All 36 expected to be delivered by 2018.[65] Formal deliveries of the first 8 began in June 2014.[66] However, due largely to the ISIS offensive and the resultant risk to US contractors that would maintain the aircraft, the US has prohibited transfer of the planes to Iraq and instead sent them to Tucson, AZ, where the Iraqi pilots continue training.[67]

One F-16C lost on 25 June 2015 during a training mission near Douglas, Arizona.[68] The pilot, Brigadier General Rasid Mohammed Hassan, was killed.[69]

4 F-16s landed in Balad Airport, Salahuddin province, Iraq on 13 July 2015[

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Oct 2015 07:50

iraq should probably scrap the F-solah deal, ask for money back and instead order some 60-80 Frogfoots with a mix of munitions, plus few ISR aircraft like IL38 with side looking radar and sigint gear to find targets.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 05 Oct 2015 08:42

Supposedly ISIL HQ Hit capture

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 05 Oct 2015 08:45

This one is from (27th Sep). A dare devil (could be on-ground intel) captures bombing live almost from ground zero.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 Oct 2015 08:57

Karan M wrote:More like 15-20 mtrs
LGBs get you 5-10 mtr CEP; w/GPS assist they can get you 1-2 mtrs but at lower slant ranges

For short distance the INS can do much better than 15-20 m as error margin would be low.

As fas as LGB goes , if target is lased then it accuracy should be much higher like ~ 1 m CEP unless you loose the laser lock or something.

GLONASS accuracy today is at ~ 3 m http://tass.ru/en/russia/795582

Today the accuracy of the GLONASS domestic satellite navigation system is 2.7 meters, Rogozin said. ‘We plan to reach the figure of 60 cm by 2020," he said.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 05 Oct 2015 08:58

Even as Syria hots up,events in Israel/Jerusalem,where Palestinians have killed 4 Israelis in unprovoked attacks is seeing huge tensions rising and Bibi N is imposing stiff measures to protect Israelis by banning Palestinians from the old city/Temple Mount.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/o ... alestinian

Binyamin Netanyahu vows 'harsh offensive' on Palestinian violence
Prime minister orders tough measures after four Israelis killed in two attacks related to tensions over Jerusalem holy site

Palestinians stand near a burning barricade during clashes with Israeli security forces in the East Jerusalem neighbourhood of Issawiya.

Peter Beaumont in Jerusalem and Kate Shuttleworth in Ramallah
Monday 5 October 2015 00.29 BST Last modified on Monday 5 October 2015

Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, promised a “harsh offensive” against Palestinian violence as he flew home from New York to confront an escalating crisis that has seen four Israelis killed in two attacks on the occupied West Bank and in Jerusalem’s Old City.

Amid an unprecedented closure of the Old City to all Palestinians not resident there, thousands of largely ultra-orthodox Jewish mourners gathered in Jerusalem to bury the most recent victims, a rabbi and an off-duty soldier, who were stabbed to death in the Old City on Saturday night.

Ahead of a meeting with security officials on Sunday to decide his response, Netanyahu vowed a “harsh offensive on Palestinian Islamic terror”, according to a statement posted on his Facebook page. He added: “We are in an all-out war against terror.”

After the meeting Netanyahu said he had ordered “additional steps to deter terror and punish terrorists.” He said that includes “fast-tracking the razing of terrorists’ homes”, strengthening security in Jerusalem and the West Bank and “banning those that incite [violence] from the Old City and the Temple Mount”.

The latest spike in violence comes at a time when many Palestinians no longer believe statehood through negotiations with Israel is possible.
Netanyahu with US secretary of state John Kerry in New York on Friday. Photograph: Reuters

Israeli commentators discussed the threat of a third uprising, though Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has so far prevented major outbreaks of violence in the face of growing friction with Netanyahu.

The funerals of the two men killed on Saturday took place as it emerged that one of them, Rabbi Nehemia Lavi, 41, had died after hearing screams in the street and rushing to help Aharon Bennett, 21, the second victim, and his wife and child, who were injured.

Zev Bareiton, a member of Lavi’s extended family who was among the mourners on Sunday, told the Guardian: “He was a marvellous father of seven who lived in the Old City. His 14-year-old son – his eldest – wants everyone to know he was not murdered but died helping to defend others.”

Bareiton said Lavi, an army reserve officer died after wrestling with the attacker, 19-year-old Palestinian Muhannad Halabi, for his knife.

“Israel is at war. There is no security. I want to see the government take steps to protect its citizens,” Bareiton said.

Eulogising Lavi, who was a rabbi for the rightwing settler group Ateret Cohanim, Israeli president Reuven Rivlin said: “Our enemies know how to hurt us, but will not defeat us. The fight against terrorism requires determination and inner fortitude. We will reach the killers of the innocent and pure, and we will reach their inciters and their dispatchers, and will deliver them a stinging blow.”

On Thursday night, an Israeli couple were shot and killed, and their four children injured, in their car by gunmen near the West Bank village of Beit Furik.

Justifying the closure of Jerusalem’s Old City during the second part of the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, Israeli police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said: “This is a drastic measure that’s being taken in order to make sure there are no further attacks during the Jewish festival, where you can see thousands of people visiting the Old City.”

According to Jerusalem expert Danny Seidemann, it is the first time since Israel captured the Old City in 1967 that it has prevented Jerusalem’s Palestinians from entering.

The recent attacks have come amid mounting clashes on the West Bank and in Jerusalem that on Saturday night saw Israeli troops shoot and wound at least 18 Palestinians in a raid on the Jenin refugee camp.

The 18 were among 100 Palestinians reportedly wounded by Israeli security forces over the weekend in multiple locations.

Tensions have soared in recent weeks over the major holy site in Jerusalem’s Old City known to Jews as the Temple Mount and to Muslims as the Noble Sanctuary, the site of the Al-Aqsa Mosque, with Israeli police and Palestinian demonstrators clashing repeatedly.

Halabi – who was shot dead by Israeli police – had posted on Facebook before his attack a message linking it to recent events around the mosque.

“What’s happening to our holy places? What’s happening to our mothers and sisters in the Al-Aqsa mosque? We are not the people who accept humiliation. Our people will revolt.” He also proclaimed: “The third intifada is here.”

At his home in Ramallah, Halabi’s father, Shafiq, said he had no indication what his son – a law student – was about to do but added: “I am proud of my son and what he did: he has done what 1.5 million Muslims have failed to do.
“I dropped him at nine o’clock [on Saturday] at the Muqata complex in Ramallah so that he could catch a bus to the university and everything seemed normal to me, there was no sign that he was behaving abnormally.

Two Israeli men killed in stabbing attack in Jerusalem's old city

“He was studying to become a lawyer and defend those oppressed by the Israeli occupation.”

On Sunday morning, east Jerusalem Palestinian resident Fadi Aloon, aged 19, was shot dead after allegedly attacking a 15-year-old Israeli with a knife. The claim was denied by Aloon’s family and his father, Samir, said he was fleeing from Israelis protesting against the earlier killings.

Aloon had posted “Either martyrdom or victory” on his Facebook page a few hours before his death.

Israeli TV showed footage of Aloon apparently walking along the city’s light rail tracks as bystanders screamed: “Shoot him!”

In the video, a police car arrives on the scene, multiple gunshots are heard and the attacker is then seen lying on the ground.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Oct 2015 09:10

interesting insights from a russian forum. it seems mosul has a sulphur mine and milling plant which was repaired by a american co just before ISIS took over. its the raw material for their explosives. it has inexplicably not been bombed by coalition air power though it should be a prime target.

http://www.russiadefence.net/t2147p30-r ... ion#124405

another is why are saddam ex army part of IS?

http://www.russiadefence.net/t2147p15-r ... ooperation

It all started in 1991 just after the Gulf War Saddam recoiled from the double whammy of the "arab world" fighting against Iraq in the Gulf War as well as the Southern Iraqi Shia uprising against his regime...

His solution?

Abandon "Pan Arabism" - since the arabs betrayed him
Abandon "Iraqi Nationalism" - Since the Shias betrayed him

The only thing left was "Sunni Islam".

Hence the birth of the "Faith Campaign" which raged throughout the 1990s until 2003.

Initially people thought it was a "superficial" campaign by Saddam... build mosques, add "allah akbar" to the flag, ban Bars (but not alcohol!) and impose death sentence on prostitution...

But it seems that whether it was planned, or by accident... a great number of Saddam's officers were drawn into this islamism... and after the fall of the regime in 2003 it was an easy "leap of faith" for them to get into wahhabism... Something that would have been "unthinkable" in the 1970s or 1980s.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Oct 2015 09:16

convoys of tanks/APC/gear in desert camo have been spotted being shipped on trains across southern Russia and the Russians are not even bothered to hide these shipments, it is all in open and many of them without cover.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 05 Oct 2015 09:23

Satya-anveshi ji, that video you posted above had some great footage.

In the video one can see at least 02 different helicopter bombing runs over urban areas. This is a short term total air superiority situation which will vanish shortly with MANPADS becoming available on ground. More and more of the bombing runs will be fighter based and from higher altitude. My guess minimum 3kms AGL. Dive attacks will also become a thing of the past, once the MANPADS proliferate. PGMs will come into use more and more.

The proliferation of MANPADS is going to be a tough decision as both US and Russian air assets will come under threat. So, if Turkey starts distributing MANPAD alms, it will be to no one's liking.

Outside the video, the attack on Raqqa by the Russians has hit the ISIS in its lair. It is their nerve center. Mostly ignored by the US, Raqqa is the operating HQ for ISIS too. However, look out for Russian strikes on Dabiq. That is the religious nerve center for ISIS. They have their mythological belief system associated with Dabiq. The final push starts from Dabiq after all else has been lost.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dabiq

The town is the site of the decisive battle of Marj Dabiq between the Ottoman Empire and the Mamluk Sultanate in 1516. In Islamic eschatology, it is believed that Dabiq is one of two possible locations for an epic battle between invading Christians and the defending Muslims which will result in a Muslim victory and mark the beginning of the end of the world. The Islamic State believes Dabiq is where an epic and decisive battle will take place with Christian forces of the west.[2]

Unfortunately for the ISIS, the Russian Christian forces do not exactly fit the description of the "Christian forces of the West"

asgkhan · Post by **asgkhan** » 05 Oct 2015 09:24

If the Saudi camel-jockeys think they can upscale the support to ISIS, some Iranian AA-missiles can be passed on to the Houthi Freedom fighters.

Nothing like a expensive F-15 brought down to get some sense in these sand-humpers.

another idea would be a suicide attack on a airbase in sandy barbaria by the houthis.

Then the fun will start.

Unkil Sam can mouth off crap about escalation vagera vagera via Cnn and Fox, but the Iranians can really squeeze the b@lls if they want to escalate the situation.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Oct 2015 10:01

Putin summons turkish ambassador to Russia and given an ultimatum.

Putin Issues Ultimatum to Turkey- Stop Supporting ISIS or else deal with a break in relations. (Russia, Obama, ISIS, Syria, Kurds)
Read more at http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=2e6_1443 ... svrMLB5.99

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Oct 2015 10:03

todays news claims that a force of 20,000 kurds and 5000 moderate rebels with coalition air support is intended to put pressure on Raqqa in the coming winter.

the russians would not mind the rebels withdrawing from their siege of the coast and going away east to fight the ISIS. reducing their manpower via encouraging migration to europe is also there.

russia probably has a vast inventory of older tanks, BMPs, artillery, grads with mothballed ammo it can now ship over to the syrians.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Oct 2015 10:10

Iraqis have ordered over 500 BMP ordered from Russia. This was somewhere on twitter.

the Chinese have also introduced themselves by sending 4 fuel tankers to Syria.

https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/ ... 2444294144

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Oct 2015 10:14

does syria export or import fuel? is assad self sufficient in POL ?