The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Baikul
BRFite
Posts: 1134
Joined: 20 Sep 2010 06:47

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Baikul » 25 Nov 2015 03:58

I'm not sure whether Russia is going to so ostensibly go to the mat on this one that they will provoke a larger war. And I'm not so sure whether NATO will allow a an aggressive ally, Turkey, to pull it into a general conflagration either. I think the Americans and the Russians have to realise how little space there is for showboating. I believe that Russia's response, however severe, will be covert, and predictably in the style of their Pakistani cousins, Turkey will claim it a victory onlee.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 25 Nov 2015 04:06

Statement from soon-2-b fertilizer: claims his scumbags shot dead the pilots

A deputy commander of a Turkmen brigade told reporters on a trip organised by Turkish authorities that his forces had shot both pilots dead as they descended.

"Our comrades opened fire into the air and they died in the air," Alpaslan Celik said near the Syrian village of Yamadi, holding what he said was a piece of a pilot's parachute.

In a further sign of a growing fallout over Syria, Syrian rebel fighters who have received U.S. arms said they fired at a Russian helicopter, forcing it to land in territory held by Moscow's Syrian government allies.


"We will never tolerate such crimes like the one committed today," Putin said,


Anyone predicting Russian Ahimsa etc has forgotten the lessons of Stalingrad and Leningrad.

Shreeman
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3762
Joined: 17 Jan 2007 15:31
Location: bositiveneuj.blogspot.com
Contact:

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Shreeman » 25 Nov 2015 04:29

Russia ought to have planned for this. Turkey is a proxy for many here. The bigger conflict will be no fun for anyone.

At issue now is who gets shot at in revenge and when. The fact that this sabotages europe's gas security in winter is a double bonus.

It wouldnt be a bad thing to see if F16s can outlast S300s, since thats what is being planned to be deployed in large number against another set of F16s.

By the way, NATO would just love to see a bigger broader conflict right now. No one remembers paris anymore and russia gets cut down to size and possibly worse.

Russia's move for the moment.

vina
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6046
Joined: 11 May 2005 06:56
Location: Doing Nijikaran, Udharikaran and Baazarikaran to Commies and Assorted Leftists

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby vina » 25 Nov 2015 04:35

Well, the following will definitely happen.

1. Kurdistan is now dejure a reality going forward.
2. Russia is going to supply material to the Kurds, including Surface to air weapons. No more Turkish airforce attacking Kurds. Expect shoot downs.
3. The Turks have shot themselves in the foot. The Russian plane in that 2 mile tongue of Turkish territory was there for 17 seconds (according to the Turks themselves)
4. The targets of the Russians have changed. The ISIS/ISIL will now be left to the French and Americans while the Russians will go after the Turkmen militia first
5. Yes, this entire shoot down was a planned ambush , not something that happened in due course. Wonder what Turkey was thinking
6. Obama and Nato's statements of "standing in solidarity" with the ally is probably for public consumption. Behind the scenes , expect serious attempts at de-escalation
7. Two Russian dead, and one possibly POW or dead. Not going to be good for the Turkmen militia if they shot at them while parachuting down.

Shreeman
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3762
Joined: 17 Jan 2007 15:31
Location: bositiveneuj.blogspot.com
Contact:

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Shreeman » 25 Nov 2015 04:42

Turks didnt do this without planning, and likely not without awareness of the "west". The dossier to the UN, the rush to NATO, the videos in the media all setup. Russians couldnt have missed the signs either.

The turks wanted this. The turkish backers wanted this too. The fallout and all. Le charles de gaul is there ready to act. And who knows how many US craft.

Riussias move. Securing the turkish syria border AND arming the kurds are all long term goals. What is the visible stick?

member_29247
BRFite
Posts: 287
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby member_29247 » 25 Nov 2015 05:17

Reprisals are best when served cold...

This is not one minute move chess...


West wants Russia to bleed, only way Russian can finance this war is if
Oil prices go up
Taxes go up

Or the bill is foot by Iran and Iraq giving free oil to Russia
Like the way ISIS did to turkey

Remember how instant Coffee Annan son made instant coffee money oil for food along with SG RG Combo? With Saddam?

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6890
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 25 Nov 2015 05:19

i fully expect ankara to be nuked in weeks time. Before that Jisr-al-shughour and rebel strongholds will be wiped out by conventional weapons. If there are brfites in region, they should move out.

jabal turkmen will have name only and no skinny turkmen.

Mihaylo
BRFite
Posts: 762
Joined: 09 Nov 2007 21:10

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Mihaylo » 25 Nov 2015 05:26

habal wrote:i fully expect ankara to be nuked in weeks time. Before that Jisr-al-shughour and rebel strongholds will be wiped out by conventional weapons. If there are brfites in region, they should move out.

jabal turkmen will have name only and no skinny turkmen.


Lol...in the Leviant Benis thread please.

-M


Satya_anveshi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3532
Joined: 08 Jan 2007 02:37

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 25 Nov 2015 05:32

These distractions aren't done. There will be more. When someone is focused on a task, seeing success, and knows is going to get distracted, generally don't get overwhelmed by few distractions.

But there is no other tool in West's hands. So, starting from that lone soldier killed on war front (allegedly was a case of suicide), we had

- Metrojet
- Paris (but looks like French and French pride got sold off; there is always a price on the head of every french)
- Ukraine flare up
- Crimea black out and block out
- Now Pilots murdered

Remember in Charlie Rose show Obama said Putin does not have allies and recently Lavrov retorted saying in your attempt to pull down the iron curtain on Russia there is a chance that it may cut your own genitals.

So, now you have Egypt gone, France gone, Turkey gone, and potentially entire EU too (that was the entire Belgium shutdown about).

Right thing to do is :

Satya_anveshi wrote:I am guessing they will do the following:

- Strengthen air defense in Syria further {already seems done }
- Assad says any enemy aircraft in Syrian space that does not have approval from legit Syrian govt will be shot down {this was done partially with missile cruiser statement}
- Strengthen air defense in Iran in return of more ground troops and bring in more informal forces from Iraq
- Stay the course in Syria and maintain bombing (deny space to others)
- Teach Ukraine a lesson that shakes EU more than the Paris attack did

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 25 Nov 2015 05:40

What the incident showed is that Russian attacks on the Turkish rapists protected by Erdogan, have become very effective to the point where Turkey is willing to go to the wall. As Putin said, the fuel truck trade is kaput - over 1000 trucks burned.

There was another red line that Erdogan had cited - that was if the Syrian Kurds connected to the Iraqi Kurds - they threatened to invade. At this point Comrade Vlad may call that bluff and send in the heavy bombers - losses or no losses. NATO cannot intervene just because the Turks feel pain between their legs for a change.

Multatuli
BRFite
Posts: 612
Joined: 06 Feb 2007 06:29
Location: The Netherlands

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Multatuli » 25 Nov 2015 05:47

Makes good points, and he also agrees with the theory that this incident was planned.

Turkey Has Destroyed Russia’s Hope Of Western Cooperation — Paul Craig Roberts

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/11 ... g-roberts/

Lt Gen Sergei Rudskoy made declaration on Turkish AirForce attack on Russian Su-24. (With Eng. Subs.)

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=510_1448395202

Added later:

Russia will continue bombing the terrorists protected by Turkey, now protected by fighters. This is the best way to hurt Turkey. At a time of their choosing they'll extract a price for the downing of the Su-24 and the barbaric murder of the pilots (felt sick watching the videos of Turkmen terrorists firing on the Russian pilots as they descended with their parachutes). Russia won't do anything as drastic as giving support to the PKK, because Russia is vulnerable too in the Caucasus.
Last edited by Multatuli on 25 Nov 2015 05:57, edited 2 times in total.

Satya_anveshi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3532
Joined: 08 Jan 2007 02:37

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 25 Nov 2015 05:48

Erdogan built himself a palace that no one likes it. Not Turkeys, not western masters, not Europeans. I am not sure if Russians take that entire sheet out, turkey people will necessarily mourn the 'aggression' and may even thank Putin.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 25 Nov 2015 05:55

russia needs to flood syria will high quality artilery and MSTA regiments of which they have ample stocks.
this will win most battles cheaply.
if the idea was to shift the RuAF from ISIS to north latakia, the celebrating turkoman AoA militias just got used like a pawn by their masters . erdogan will not be around when the bombs fall.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 25 Nov 2015 06:11

But I think best Russian strategy may be to ignore the provocation and keep pummeling the Turkmen creeps, maybe with long-range artillery. I suspect that NATO will ask the Turks to stand down their air force. It's brinkmanship but right now Russia has the evidence on the fuel trucks. NATO has a problem...

OTOH, Russia/Assad could shift attention to the other corner (north-east Syria) and facilitate a Kurd linkup.

See Erdogan threat of Oct 28:

Turkey will "do what is necessary" to prevent U.S.-allied Syrian Kurdish rebels from declaring autonomy in the town of Tel Abyad near the Turkish border, including conducting further military operations, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday.

NATO member Turkey is part of the U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State militants in Syria, but it sees advances by autonomy-seeking Kurds, led by the Democratic Union Party (PYD), as a threat to its own national security, fearing they could stoke separatism among Turkish Kurds.

Turkish jets recently hit the Syrian Kurds' armed People's Protection Units (YPG) targets twice after they defied Ankara and crossed west of the Euphrates River.

"This was a warning. 'Pull yourself together. If you try to do this elsewhere - Turkey doesn't need permission from anyone - we will do what is necessary,'" Erdogan said, signaling he could defy Washington's demand that Ankara avoid hitting Syrian Kurds and focus its military might on Islamic State targets.

Erdogan, in remarks broadcast live on the Kanal 24 television station, also accused the PYD of carrying out "ethnic cleansing" in the area and said Western support for the Syrian Kurdish militias amounted to aiding terrorism.

Backed by U.S.-led air strikes, YPD fighters captured Tel Abyad in June from Islamic State, and this month a local leadership council declared the town part of the system of autonomous self-governing "cantons" run by the Kurds.

"The PYD is committing ethnic cleansing here (of) Arabs and Turkmen," Erdogan said. "If the Kurds withdraw and don't form a canton, there's no problem. But if the mindset continues, then what is necessary will be done or we face serious problems.

Read more at Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2 ... LRV812K.99
Last edited by UlanBatori on 25 Nov 2015 06:19, edited 1 time in total.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby shiv » 25 Nov 2015 06:11

As a NATO member I don;t suppose Turkey need to comply with any end user restrictions wrt AMRAAMs. Heck even non NATO allies like Pakistan have done precisely whatever they want with US supplied stuff. I agree with Shreeman that this was probably a planned shootdown. Cleary a sort of "challenge" to Russia as in "What are you going to do about it?"

I am sure the Russians will take revenge at some time. Remember Turkey has an airline and airliners sometimes have accidents. Not nice at all but this incident is only symptomatic of the utter chicanery in the Levant, starting with a destabilization of Iraq and installation of a shia puppet government; a sunni revolt against that; destabilization of Assad and the coalition of sunnis to make a caliphate; Turkey opposing sunni caliphate except when IS kill Kurds.

Turkey's role is simply borrowed from the US's attitude to Pakistan. Support terrorist groups but call them good if they attack your foes (Kurds) and bad if they attack you (IS).

I am beginning to feel that he world needs more Islam for peace. Sunni preferably

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 25 Nov 2015 06:13

> Are Russian planes flying alone all over Syria?

yes sometimes they fly alone if familiar with the area, to maximise number of targets struck per day.

Shiv, when did IS ever attack their business and medical partner Turkey? you saw how in kobane women were desperately fighting for their lives and half a kilometer away long lines of turkish tanks and IFVs did nothing. IS very much sarkari rebels like JEM and LET and not at all like TTP.

Satya_anveshi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3532
Joined: 08 Jan 2007 02:37

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 25 Nov 2015 06:18

It is of course planned shoot down. After the previous incident, they foresaw this and neutered it by having mission safety agreement between US (along with their coalition partners) and Russia.

That is the reason why Putin is calling stab in the back.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 25 Nov 2015 06:21

shiv wrote:I am beginning to feel that he world needs more Islam for peace. Sunni preferably

You mean good pure Wahabi Islam. Nothing less is any good.

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6890
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 25 Nov 2015 06:28

russia will hit ankara, no doubt about this. There will be lots of provocations on turkey now.

rebel stronghold of Khan Tuman near turkish border has fallen. Now there is no way rebels can replenish anywhere in Idlib, Latakia, Homs, Hama. It's game over for Nusra front in western syria

RoyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5180
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby RoyG » 25 Nov 2015 06:30

vina wrote:Well, the following will definitely happen.

1. Kurdistan is now dejure a reality going forward.
2. Russia is going to supply material to the Kurds, including Surface to air weapons. No more Turkish airforce attacking Kurds. Expect shoot downs.
3. The Turks have shot themselves in the foot. The Russian plane in that 2 mile tongue of Turkish territory was there for 17 seconds (according to the Turks themselves)
4. The targets of the Russians have changed. The ISIS/ISIL will now be left to the French and Americans while the Russians will go after the Turkmen militia first
5. Yes, this entire shoot down was a planned ambush , not something that happened in due course. Wonder what Turkey was thinking
6. Obama and Nato's statements of "standing in solidarity" with the ally is probably for public consumption. Behind the scenes , expect serious attempts at de-escalation
7. Two Russian dead, and one possibly POW or dead. Not going to be good for the Turkmen militia if they shot at them while parachuting down.


What choice do the Turks have? They had to escalate at some point. They will be cut off from ISIS so they will come under increasing pressure from their Kurdish population. Might as well be now and force US and NATO to work some magic behind the scenes. Why wait longer and risk US-Russia relations temporarily improving? Right now the US will probably be more flexible in terms of how it supports Turkey militarily.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 25 Nov 2015 06:30

^^ khan tuman is not near turkish border, it is south-west of aleppo and even south of the M5 motorway near Al-Eis.

border belt is mountains. there would be plenty of small routes. boots on the ground are needed to control these routes and properly choke the aleppo and latakia rebels. Jisr Al Shugur for instance is a major logistical and transport node.

they need to capture the M4 motorway, Jisr al shugur and Idlib...best way is form up huge artillery units and start pounding.

Satya_anveshi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3532
Joined: 08 Jan 2007 02:37

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 25 Nov 2015 06:32

UlanBatori wrote:
shiv wrote:I am beginning to feel that he world needs more Islam for peace. Sunni preferably

You mean good pure Wahabi Islam. Nothing less is any good.


If Murtea's can body shop good learned people and cause brain drain for India, why isn't anyone coming up with ideas to export trash at home (clearly marked) and supply both sides with no return and no refund policy?

Every time I see good vacuum cleaning of bad guys I am baffled what bad karma we did to keep the increasingly volatile trash to fester and create long term problems.

On top of that we have to bear the ignominy of jihadi "intelligencia"/budhichutyas calling tolerant hindus as intolerant ones for no rhyme and reason.
Last edited by Satya_anveshi on 25 Nov 2015 06:35, edited 1 time in total.

Mihaylo
BRFite
Posts: 762
Joined: 09 Nov 2007 21:10

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Mihaylo » 25 Nov 2015 06:34

At this time, if I was the Emperor, I would increase the security cover for my children.

-M

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 25 Nov 2015 06:38

The Russians need to bring in Gen. Zhukov and Gen. Kuniev with their artillery barrages.

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6890
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 25 Nov 2015 06:39

a lot of hills in latakia have been captured by SAA, hezb past few days. The smaller routes in between are donkey trails and they can't sustain the number of rebels that need to be resupplied. Once khan touman is taken, m4 becomes vulnerable.

Y I Patel
BRFite
Posts: 696
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Y I Patel » 25 Nov 2015 06:39

Multatuli wrote:Makes good points, and he also agrees with the theory that this incident was planned.

Turkey Has Destroyed Russia’s Hope Of Western Cooperation — Paul Craig Roberts

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/11 ... g-roberts/



IMHO this rambling CT is typical of Obama haters here in US. Sure, Turkey shot the plane down to sabotage any chance of cooperation between the West and Russia on Syria. They did it because the growing problem of refugees and the attacks on Paris were souring the west to the games Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been playing in the region. If anything, Obama is making US reluctantly tag along because three vital US alliances in the region are at stake. But anyone with the scantest understanding of the history of this region should immediately grasp that Turkey will not wait for anyone's permission or support to move against Russia. The whole idea here is to provoke Russia into attacking Turkey and then invoke provisions of NATO to make this a NATO - Russia confrontation.

But the European countries are not going to have any of it. Beneath all that sophisticated veneer, this is now a crusade against a jihad. Turkey will be left hanging and Russia will win concessions on a coordinated front against ISIS so long as they do not directly attack Turkey. No one will say anything so long as Putin fights back through proxies, and the situation is complicated enough to provide him with plenty.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby shiv » 25 Nov 2015 06:55

Turkey and Iran have a problem with Kurds.

IS is against the west, Iran and the kurds

IS is sunni and by definition anti shia and gets support from Kuwait and KSA for that

IS gets Western support against Assad of Syria

IS as a body is a threat to Turkish sovereignty and Europe

IS affiliated groups get support from Turkey as long as they hit Kurds

IS affiliated groups get support from Iran as long as they hit Kurds

IS is opposed by Iran for anti-Shia activities, but Turkey has no problem with this

IS is opposed by Turkey only in terms of threat to Turkey itself as an overall Caliphate expansion plan

So the IS, like Pakistani army and terror groups, can afford to be split up and fighting whoever is convenient as long as they get support. If the get support from Iran and Turkey to hit Kurds, they will do that. If they get support from Kuwait and KSA to hit shias in Iraq and Iran, they will do that. If they get support from the west to hit Assad and now Russia they will take that aid.

In the end the IS only needs chaos and war to gain strength. This is exactly the sort of policy that was followed by Pakistan. The latter was detrimental to India - so I am happy to see all this moving west because of the same players and same culprits. The refugee crisis is making it look a bit like Bangladesh, but Europe and the US, the former with ageing populations do not have it in them to put boots on the ground in adequate numbers. I am unable to think of how Pakistan could be a troop contributor to the cause if they have to fight KSA/Kuwait funded Sunnis. That leaves Iran backed by Russia.

I see no end to this for 20 years at least.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 25 Nov 2015 07:30

the turkish letter to UN states the su24 was inside turk airspace for 17 seconds.
the F16 was perpendicular to the flight path.

it had to be a carefully staged ambush and the F16 timed its departure and exit speed from its circular orbit up north to co-incide arriving at shooting position about when the su24 briefly crossed over that neck of land....about 2km wide...a plane at 600kmph would cross that in 12 secs. they wanted the impact to be on or around that neck of land....he might even have fired a few seconds before it entered turk airspace...the missile would need a few seconds to close the gap.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 25 Nov 2015 07:35

SAA is hounding them in that area. its that little white dagger of land sticking down...apparently some french mapmaker or colonial lord gave that to turkey in 1930s.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUWHh0lWwAArlmz.jpg:large

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 25 Nov 2015 07:35

just like kashmir the Al-firliq forest will be a storehouse of arms , safehouses and infiltration routes from up north.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 25 Nov 2015 07:42

explosion hits bus carrying presidential guards in tunisia. many deaths.
a 14 yo shepherd was also beheaded by IS affiliate there

Satya_anveshi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3532
Joined: 08 Jan 2007 02:37

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Satya_anveshi » 25 Nov 2015 07:42

Shiv ji,

Since Sept 30 (when russian attacks began), there has been good unraveling of IS plot and accordingly coverage of that on this thread. Some of it may still be in the realm of theory but all observed phenomenon will fit into this. Brief summary goes like this:

IS never attacked the West and GCC (this includes US, UK,Israel, EU, KSA, Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Jordon). These are the veritable sponsors of the IS/ISIS/ISIL.

IS controls territory that spans across multiple countries and gets support from western nations (military, technological support and some of their conjoined twins get diplomatic support). These territories happen to be major production hubs in the energy commodity supply chain. Gen. Wesley Clark's comment of (7 countries in 5 years fit into this).

Syria has bigger oil discoveries in its Golan Heights mountains than Iraq

Redrawing borders is essential to getting control over these energy supplies; This redrawing will not happen until countries go to civil war and go totally kaput.

Israel has plans to expand its territorial boundaries and annex energy rich golan heights region of Syria.

After you get control, you need to be able to sell it to consumers. India, China, EU, and Japan are the markets. Americas (both north and sourth) are self sufficient and can be net exporters.

China entered into half a trillion$ deal with Russians;

India has options to choose from KSA, Iraq and now Iran, which is entering with its own supplies. Recently Iraq took over as #1 supplier of Crude to India. KSA's share is going down.

Japan is primarily served by West Asia despite bordering Russia.

That leaves EU. Currently Russia controls that market (both gas and crude). In order to dislodge Russia, the supply must go thru Syria/Turkey.

Ukraine turmoil already threatening to cut off gas supplies to Europe.

Once Russia is cutoff, the country's major revenue source is gone.

Therefore, Russia is fighting for its economic survival and therefore an existential battle.

There are also underpinning of US Dollar hegemony that is supported by the sunni oil trade. The new shia and russia controlled oil trade is not supporting of US dollar. They have plans to diversify into USD and Euro as well as providing other alternatives.
Last edited by Satya_anveshi on 25 Nov 2015 07:46, edited 1 time in total.

member_28352
BRFite
Posts: 1205
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby member_28352 » 25 Nov 2015 07:43

Well one NATO force, the CDG and her carrier group are in close vicinity of the situation area. If things hot up the Russian base at Latakia might be toast. Just saying...

vina
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6046
Joined: 11 May 2005 06:56
Location: Doing Nijikaran, Udharikaran and Baazarikaran to Commies and Assorted Leftists

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby vina » 25 Nov 2015 07:45

Turkey and Iran have a problem with Kurds.


The Kurdish belt is on the arc from Eastern Turkey, into some bits of Syria, lots of Iraq and a sliver of Iran.

The bulk of Kurdish territory and population is in Turkey. The Kurds were kept down by Saddam, who was great chums with Turkey, because he could export the oil via turkey and black sea route and avoid the Srait of Hormuz choke point.

Now, lets face it. Iraq is a disintegrated state and can never be put back together again. And so is Syria. The Kurds in Iraq are now de facto independent and have strong revenue from oil around Kirkuk and absolutely nothing that the Turks can do will stop that long term problem for them of the link up between the Kurds across the borders of Iraq, Syria and Turkey (the Iranian kurds are a small part), Iran might be able to overlook it if it serves a larger strategic purpose.

The Turks are long term screwed. If the Syrians and the Russians now start arming the Kurds to take on the Turks after this incident, and the Iranians join in, they will hemorrhage.

Yes, a Sunni state in what is Western Iraq, to Jordan and Eastern Syria will come about. But trouble is that is empty desert with not even oil. It is an unviable non starter and the only business model for them is as old as Islam itself, which is an expansionist / imperial one to expand into neighboring boundaries and pillage/conquest. That Sunni state will by nature have bloody borders.

And YES, all the US puppet monarchies on the Persian gulf, stretching from Kuwait down to Oman are threatened. They are Sunni puppet monarchies, lording over a Shia majority population that is oppressed (case in point Bahrain, and I think bulk of UAE etc), incluing the parts of Saudi Arabia where there is oil. So a Shia Arab republic from Basra all the way down to Oman will happen. Soddy Barbaria will shrink back into the vast empty quarter of nothing, not even oil and atrophy.

This is what the population map and allied tribal and religion based way of political organisation of Arabs is going to play out.

Historically, the "Secular Arab" nationalism (of 50s to 70s) Nasser,Syrian and Iraqi Baathists etc was sabotaged and died . That was too leftist for the west. Now they installed Soddy Barbaria and the vicious political islamist based politics. That is now falling on it's own internal contradictions and has reached is limits and is lashing out in all directions , including the west. It is on its way out.

The final will the tribal & religious society based states that will form. The oil is concentrated along the persian gulf , which is majority Shia. The Sunnis will be left high and dry.

But expect massive bloodshed and huge dislocation before the end state.

If there is a mass substitute for oil in transportation that becomes viable in the near term, this end state is 100% certain. If it doesn't there will be intervention on both sides by external forces (read Khan and others) and massive turmoil before that happens.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby UlanBatori » 25 Nov 2015 07:47

Yikes! Shankar_CAG, R u sure u r not tsj in disguise? :eek: :shock:

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby Singha » 25 Nov 2015 07:50

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUmA7S-XAAQ4a1M.jpg:large

CSAR team rescued from the downed helicopter. by the time TOW attack was launched it was already abandoned I think.

member_28352
BRFite
Posts: 1205
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby member_28352 » 25 Nov 2015 07:50

LOL no but considering the perfidy of the Atlanticists it wouldn't hurt to plan for that eventuality.

ldev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2007
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby ldev » 25 Nov 2015 07:51

Since the Turkish proposal of a no-fly zone along the Syrian-Turkish border got no traction from NATO, Turkey has upped the ante by this move. A 17 second window to shoot down a plane, only an ambush can do it. Hence Putin says that Russia has been stabbed in the back.

I am sure that if they want to, the Russians can take down plenty of Turkish F-16s by ground or naval based AAMs over the Aegean sea as they butt against the Greek Air Force. But that will be playing into Turkey's hand and make this into a NATO-Russia confrontation. Again I don't think that it is the prospect of military confrontation with NATO that is holding Russia back rather it is the hope of economic reconciliation and lifting up of sanctions which will be totally destroyed for decades in the event Russia decides on a large scale response to Turkey.

But Putin is good at asymettric warfare. I would look for a response or responses in other theaters as well if e.g. a Scud missile fired by Hezbollah or the IRGC goes offcourse and slams into the Saudi oil loading terminal near Jubail and reduces Saudi oil export capacity by 50% or strikes a supertanker and sinks it in the Straits of Hormuz blocking the Persian Gulf completely maybe over the top, but maybe something a little less dramatic. It would certainly get the price of oil to $200/barrel in a hurry.
Last edited by ldev on 25 Nov 2015 07:59, edited 2 times in total.

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6890
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

Postby habal » 25 Nov 2015 07:53

ShankarCag wrote:Well one NATO force, the CDG and her carrier group are in close vicinity of the situation area. If things hot up the Russian base at Latakia might be toast. Just saying...


you mean CDG is invincible ?

impervious to brahmos, submarines, torpedos ..


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 37 guests