Tracking India's Admission into International Groups & Bodies

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 25 Jun 2016 20:27

Bhurishrava wrote:The escalation cycle should be -
1. Recognise Diayou/Senkaku islands as Japanese. Spratlys as Philipino etc. Start joint patrolling of south china sea with Japanese and Americans.2. India does not believe in any one china policy. If Taiwanese are willing to play ball, great.3. Derecognise Tibet as part of China. Tibet must be either an autonomous part of India or a buffer state.In return the Chinese will support Paki claims to Kashmir. Dont think any Indian govt will do 1% of this though.

Ask Dalai Lama to have Tibetan government in Dharamsala to pass resolution assigning foreign and diplomatic duties to GOI.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Jun 2016 02:34

Jhujar wrote:
Bhurishrava wrote:The escalation cycle should be -
1. Recognise Diayou/Senkaku islands as Japanese. Spratlys as Philipino etc. Start joint patrolling of south china sea with Japanese and Americans.2. India does not believe in any one china policy. If Taiwanese are willing to play ball, great.3. Derecognise Tibet as part of China. Tibet must be either an autonomous part of India or a buffer state.In return the Chinese will support Paki claims to Kashmir. Dont think any Indian govt will do 1% of this though.
Ask Dalai Lama to have Tibetan government in Dharamsala to pass resolution assigning foreign and diplomatic duties to GOI.

I have been saying make Dalai Lama the next President of India, let Tibetan Govt in Exile sign an Instrument of Accession to India, and Chinese balls would cooked forever!

Let Dalai Lama speak to the General Assembly as President of India accusing China for gross human rights abuses of Tibetans and others in China.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 26 Jun 2016 03:00

^^^

Please, not this "Lama for President" again.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 26 Jun 2016 04:14

Well
Why not have a meeting of the Dalai Lama with all the heads of foreign missions posted in india?
It will be like all the countries are meeting the defacto leadership of Tibet.
The chinese were really sore when the Uhigurs were invited to dharamsala.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 26 Jun 2016 04:19

India is selling navy ships to phillipines & vietnam.
Will sell missiles to vietnam.
The IN is exercing with Japan, Aus and the US off the chinese coast.
IN has basing rights on vietnamese ports from where u can see chinese naval mil bases.
Any chinese navy ship that crosses into the bay of bengal starts getting tailed from the 10 devree channel to where ever it goes. If that's not harrassment then what is? Imagine MPAs loaded with anti ship missiles tailing you 24x7!

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 26 Jun 2016 04:25

Ombaba is not very enthusiastic with any country. He poisoned the 123 originally if people remember.
The USs relations with its closest allies are a little cold these days, seems to be a personality issue.

On the issue of personality, when will India get someone as enthusiastic, friendly, outspoken & outgoing a PM as NaMo hainji? Hasen't his personality opened up new vistas in indian diplomacy already? The guy simply disarms the leader he is meeting by being completely upfront, uses words very carefully. He's a very aggressive negotiator - lots of josh & energy in him! India needs an open hearted man like Modi!

Trump aint gonna win, unless the FBI indicts Hillary. He digs a bigger hole in the ground for himself, each time he opens his mouth! If he had been a normal person, he would have won from this spring board. But it is also true, that if he had been a normal person, he wouldn't have gotten this far. I don't see the guy becoming the POTUS.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 26 Jun 2016 04:33

So the Chinese are rattled by India as a strategic competitor. The Americans must be smiling, having shown China its place as being in Asia. What happened to the talk of India never catching up to them?

This is simply affirming my observation of several years ago. The delta national power between India and China has already maximised. It may begin to close in an accelerating manner. If India's hypersonic tests fructify, expect to see panicked Chinese reactions. India's liberalised business, company, hiring/firing regulations, FDI in defence, opening up of aviation, upcoming expected lower interest rates with the exit of Rajan, GST should all add a couple of percentages to economic growth. Further there has been a dramatic policy shift in export of weapons to friendly countries, many of which by happenstance are along the rim of the Chinese mainland. Interesting times ahead.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 26 Jun 2016 06:47

NSG appoints nuclear envoy to panel for India - Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu

India’s case at the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) may not have been taken forward formally this year but it wasn’t shelved entirely, sources indicated here, saying that a decision had been taken on an “informal consultative process” especially for India’s case.

According to highly placed diplomatic sources, the closed-door session of the NSG that ended its annual plenary in Seoul on Friday appointed Argentine Ambassador Rafael Grossi as the “Facilitaor of the Chairperson to having informal consultations with the Participating Governments (PGs) in the group”.

The decision indicates that despite opposition from China and other countries on the issue of the Non-Proliferation Treaty that India has refused to sign, and the desire of several NSG countries to look for a “non-discrimatory” membership process that includes all non-NPT states, India’s application was acknowledged to have some merit of its own.

Members reportedly agreed to the informal arrangement after a special session where several countries raised India’s case, which went past midnight on Thursday and stretched into the next day’s concluding session.

Eventually the NSG joint statement only recorded a bland account of the session, recording that “The NSG had discussions on the issue of “Technical, Legal and Political Aspects of the Participation of non-NPT States in the NSG” and decided to continue its discussion.”

Key appointment

Ambassador Grossi’s appointment to assist the new Chairperson from Switzerland with the “continued discussion” on India is significant, as Mr. Grossi is the outgoing Chairperson of the NSG, and was keenly involved in bringing India’s bid to the NSG table this year.

During a visit to New Delhi in October 2015, he told The Hindu , “Nobody disputes that India is a key, major player in the nuclear scenario, hence there is a recognition that some formula must be found for India [to become a member] and I think it is possible.”

Sources say that not only is the selection of Mr. Grossi to the “facilitating” position a positive sign for India as Argentina has been very supportive of India’s bid, he is an international expert on disarmament, and negotiated the accession of 197 members to the Chemical Warfare Convention (CWC) some years ago.

He was also considered a frontrunner for the post of Director-General of the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) for 2017.

Path forward

News of Mr. Grossi’s appointment came even as a U.S. official reportedly said that the NSG session had ended with a “path forward” for India’s acceptance as a member.

Speaking to PTI in Washington the unnamed source identified as “a top Obama administration official said that India’s membership process needed “some work”, but that the U.S. is “confident that India would be a full member of the [NSG] regime by the end of the year.”

MEA officials wouldn’t comment on either developments involving Mr. Grossi’s appointment and the constitution of an informal group on India or the U.S. official’s remarks, saying only that according to the NSG confidentiality procedures there is no “readout of what type of proposals were made inside the room.”

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 26 Jun 2016 11:30

Gagan,

Two terms of democratic rule is nothing short of a nightmare. Only US president to serve 3 terms was franklin roosevelt back during the world wars zamana.

It is going to be a republican govt this time.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 26 Jun 2016 16:31

NSG may meet again to discuss entry of non-NPT signatories - PTI

The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), whose membership India failed to get two days back, is likely to meet again before the end of the year to specially discuss the process for allowing non-NPT signatories into the 48-nation grouping, thus providing another chance to India to press its claims.

In the face of strong opposition from China and a few other countries, India's application for membership did not go through at the NSG plenary which concluded in Seoul on Friday.

India is not a signatory to the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and that was the ground used to thwart India's bid.

However, diplomatic sources said today that at the suggestion of Mexico, it has now been decided that another meeting of NSG should be held before the end of the year to consider the criteria for allowing non-NPT signatories like India into the group. Normally, the next meeting of NSG would have been held sometime next year.

Sources said that Mexico's suggestion was also opposed by China but it found support from a large number of countries including the US.

A panel for informal consultations on India's membership has also been set up by the NSG and it will be headed by Argentine Ambassador Rafael Grossi.

Grossi's appointment came even as a top US official said that the NSG session in Seoul had ended with a "path forward" for India's acceptance as a member.

"We are confident that we have got a path forward by the end of this year. It needs some work. But we are confident that India would be a full member of the (NSG) regime by the end of the year," the Obama administration official told PTI in Washington.

China was unrelenting in thwarting India's NSG bid despite urging Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting in Tashkent on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit to support India's case on its merits.

An upset India later accused "one country", a clear reference to China, of persistently creating procedural hurdles during the discussions on its application.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Jun 2016 16:41

Considering Mexico's friendly support, we should really reconsider our relationship with the country and take it to a higher level.

Maya Asura may like to come and build a few more palaces in Indraprastha.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 26 Jun 2016 17:05

I have updated my Chinese perfidy list of an earlier post with the latest revelations. See here.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 26 Jun 2016 17:29

ANI ‏@ANI_news · 5h5 hours ago

On Monday (27th June) we are going to become full members of MTCR: Vikas Swarup, MEA Spokesperson

habal · Post by **habal** » 26 Jun 2016 18:39

NSG should hold a meeting to kick out China.

malushahi · Post by **malushahi** » 26 Jun 2016 18:41

SSridhar wrote:I have updated my Chinese perfidy list of an earlier post with the latest revelations. See here.

here is the much talked about op-ed from global times (i do not see it posted anywhere on brf). the obviously hastily written article offers an interesting insight into the PRiC's clueless state once it realized what was coming up at seoul plenary. there is no subject matter here, the only evident effort is in stringing together heartburn, hypocrisy, and malice from various sources in the last 40 years.

please stow away your wren and martins while perusing this incoherent colic.

China no barrier to India’s NSG membership
By Long Xingchun Source:Global Times Published: 2016-6-20 23:58:01

Illustration: Liu Rui /GT

The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) plenary meeting started Monday and will end Friday in Seoul. In a bid to become a member of NSG, the Indian government has launched a diplomatic offensive and Indian President Pranab Mukherjee and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have embarked on foreign visits to win support from NSG member states.

The NSG was set up by a group of countries that have civil nuclear technology, equipment and material export capabilities. It aims to achieve nuclear non-proliferation by preventing civil nuclear technology and material from being used to develop nuclear weapons.

A country must meet four requirements to become a member of the NSG. It must have the capacity to export civil nuclear technologies; it must abide by the guidelines of the NSG; it must have signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) or other regional non-proliferation treaties. It also needs to provide "overarching and integrated legislation prohibiting unlawful activities in relation to Weapons of Mass Destruction and their delivery systems."

As a nuclear power, India has acquired the ability to export civil nuclear technologies. The NSG allows member countries to export civil nuclear technology, equipment and material to India. India's struggle to enter the NSG is also aimed at joining the global civil nuclear market.

Despite not being an NSG member, India has been sticking to NSG guidelines and implementing rigorous export control policies to prevent nuclear proliferation. It also meets the last requirement and was admitted to membership of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) early this month.

The direct obstacle for India joining the NSG is that it has not signed the NPT or any other regional non-proliferation pact. The only exception for a non-NPT signatory is if it obtains consent from all NSG members. Countries such as Norway, New Zealand, South Africa and China all hold reservations about India's inclusion into the NSG. But some Indian media and scholars simply put the blame on China, accusing China of being hostile toward India, which misses the point.

India joining NSG does not harm China's own interests. India advocates nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament and commits itself to no-first-use of nuclear weapons as China does. It could also help enhance bilateral cooperation in civil nuclear energies. Measures that can boost mutual trust could be established among China, India and Pakistan, the three nuclear powers in Asia.

Is it that simple that as long as India signs the NPT, it can join NSG? The source of conflicts comes from the dilemma of such mechanisms in accepting both India and Pakistan. It is generally reckoned that countries that conducted nuclear tests before the UN General Assembly adopted the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996 are legitimate nuclear countries, while those that did so after the adoption of the CTBT are considered illegitimate.

India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests in 1998, which were condemned by the international community, and the US, the EU and Japan all imposed harsh sanctions on the two countries. After the September 11 attacks, the sanctions were gradually lifted. The US even signed with India a Civil Nuclear Agreement and backs India's bid to join NSG. But the issue of the legitimacy of India's "nuclear status" has not been solved.

If India and Pakistan are allowed to join the NPT and adopt the CTBT, it will tarnish the authority of both. How can nuclear weapon development in other countries such as North Korea, Iran and Israel be dealt with?

If the US is sincere in supporting India's NSG membership, it should not just cast its eyes on India's nuclear market. It should solve India's "nuclear status" first so as to eradicate the contradictions between India and the existing international nuclear non-proliferation mechanism.

While India strives for NSG inclusion, it prevents Pakistan from joining by insisting on the latter's bad record of nuclear proliferation. Actually, the proliferation carried out by Pakistan was done by Abdul Qadeer Khan, Pakistan's chief nuclear scientist, and was not an official policy of the Pakistani government. Khan was punished by the government afterward with several years of house arrest. If the NPT and the NSG can give India an exemption, it should apply to Pakistan as well.

China and other countries oppose to NSG including India while excluding Pakistan, because it means solving India's problem but creating another bigger problem. If India joins hands with Pakistan to seek NSG membership, it seems more pragmatic than joining alone.

The author is a research fellow at the Charhar Institute and director of the Center for Indian Studies at China West Normal University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn Follow us on Twitter @GTopinion

do check out the comments section.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Jun 2016 18:58

I guess the Chinese have forgotten that the Animal representing India is the Lion now!

malushahi · Post by **malushahi** » 26 Jun 2016 19:47

for the record, just so we don't go in endless circles about which countries opposed the bharatiya nsg membership.

India confident on NSG entry, current hurdle ‘not a diplomatic failure’: MEA

“As I mentioned earlier, there was only one country which persistently raised procedural hurdles, as a result of which no decision could be arrived at in Seoul and we stick to that stand. As far as other countries are concerned, there are some who raised procedure related issues, but not a single country apart from that one country opposed India’s NSG membership,” Swarup said.

Indicating that India would continue to discuss the matter with China, he added that a relationship only moves forward if both sides are mindful of each other’s concerns and priorities.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 26 Jun 2016 21:19

It will be fun to see the chinese diplomutts squirm when their application for MTCR is discussed, with the Indian diplomat pointing out M-11, M-9 sales, NoKo-via-china sales to albakistan in violation of all norms

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 26 Jun 2016 21:20

Wonder what UNSC permanent membership is going to be like ! It'll possibly happen during NaMo's tenure too if he wins the second term.

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 26 Jun 2016 21:42

RajeshA wrote:I guess the Chinese have forgotten that the Animal representing India is the Lion now!

When it came out, this MII logo of the lion and cogwheels was one of the strangest things I've ever seen coming out of the modi govt. I can't help but think it was made by some kid(someones son) on vector in 20 minutes and passed forward.

Get serious

The chinese were accepted into the UN and NSG because they proved themselves to be reckless and a threat to the world. It was just a matter of choice - the world decided to include them into the club; a strange way to have some control.

The NSG was created in response to the indian nuclear tests in 1972. Now check out the chinese tests below and compare it with the indian record:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n ... s_of_China

Hope you understand what the game is.

The point is not that we have a good record(as a criteria to join the NSG). The NSG has no reason to let india join. India doesn't 1) sell nuclear secrets or 2) tests nuclear warheads

There is no need to control or regulate india. It does that by itself(based out of alien notions about the world).

If you start testing, they will open the nsg(as a form of control). The record is actually of no importance.

------

Currently, the chinese have:
1) working nuclear warheads(acquired through many tests) and
2) have access to nuclear technology and uranium as it is part of the NSG.

Whereas, india:
1) does not have a working nuclear warhead. because it refuses to test its design. There is even a doubt whether we have a real enrichment capability. Pohkran II may have fizzled because the enrichment of the warhead uranium was lower or not enough.

2) we don't have access to nsg technology. This would allow us to enrich our uranium to best quality. But why would the NSG countries give this to us? Would you give a device capable of making "asli maal" and then into "asli pataka" to a country out of the blue?

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 26 Jun 2016 22:27

Whereas, india:
1) does not have a working nuclear warhead. because it refuses to test its design. There is even a doubt whether we have a real enrichment capability. Pohkran II may have fizzled because the enrichment of the warhead uranium was lower or not enough.[/i]

Opinions are nice but evidence is better.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 26 Jun 2016 22:48

Gagan wrote:It will be fun to see the chinese diplomutts squirm when their application for MTCR is discussed, with the Indian diplomat pointing out M-11, M-9 sales, NoKo-via-china sales to albakistan in violation of all norms

Except the Chinese aren't stupid enough to enter the MTCR.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 26 Jun 2016 23:47

India to be Admitted as MTCR Member on Monday

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 26 Jun 2016 23:48

China has no need for being part of the world order. She is building her own universe.

Bhaskar_T · Post by **Bhaskar_T** » 27 Jun 2016 00:18

“As I mentioned earlier, there was only one country which persistently raised procedural hurdles, as a result of which no decision could be arrived at in Seoul and we stick to that stand. As far as other countries are concerned, there are some who raised procedure related issues, but not a single country apart from that one country opposed India’s NSG membership,” Swarup said.

Namo reciting Sanskrit in Switzerland somehow didn't help. What made Swiss U-Turn? If its China, does anybody know what is Swiss-China trade like?

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 27 Jun 2016 03:12

India may become full NSG member by year-end, says US official

As a strong China-led opposition stopped India from entering into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), the United States has said there is a ‘path forward’ for India to become a full member of the elite atomic trading club.

“We are confident that we have got a path forward by the end of this year,” a top Obama administration official said on Friday.

“It needs some work. But we are confident that India would be a full member of the (NSG) regime by the end of the year,” the official told on condition of anonymity.

The statement came hours after the group’s plenary meeting ended in Seoul with no decision on India’s membership in face of strong China-led opposition.

Refusing to divulge the discussions and opposition to India’s membership within the 48-member grouping, the official said details of the internal deliberations are confidential.

“But the US strongly believes in India’s membership in the NSG and the Obama administration has worked closely with New Delhi and other countries on this issue,” the official said.

The NSG met this week in Seoul, but China said it would not bend the rules and allow India membership, as it had not signed the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). “Applicant countries must be signatories of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT),” Wang Qun, the head of arms control department in China’s Foreign Ministry, was quoted as saying in Seoul on Thursday night.

Later, a US Democratic hailed the decision of the NSG to refuse India’s entry to the elite atomic trading club. “Today, the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) reaffirmed its strong support for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by refraining from admitting India,” Democratic Senator Edward Markey from Massachusetts said in a statement.

Cheers

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 27 Jun 2016 04:43

^^^ For the Chinese its all about not loosing face.If at all they want to become member of MTCR they will make it amply sure that both India and US have been 'managed'. It wont look good for them to be Vetoed by India who they are hell bent on not even recognizing as a worthy competitor or foe.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 27 Jun 2016 07:08

India to become full member of Missile Technology Control Regime - PTI

In its first entry into any multilateral export control regime, India will today join the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) as a full member, three days after it failed to get NSG membership due to stiff opposition from China and a few other countries.

"We applied for the membership of MTCR last year and all the procedural formalities have been completed. Tomorrow, Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar will sign the document of accession into MTCR in the presence of Ambassadors of France, Netherlands and Luxembourg," External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Vikas Swarup said.

Significantly, China, which stonewalled India's entry into the 48-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group ( NSG ) at the just- concluded Seoul plenary, is not a member of 34-nation MTCR.

Since its civil nuclear deal with the US, India has been trying to get into export control regimes like NSG, MTCR, the Australia Group and the Wassenaar Arrangement that regulate the conventional, nuclear, biological and chemicals weapons and technologies.

India's case in MTCR was opposed last year by Italy which is not happy with New Delhi over the marines dispute. However, after both marines, accused of murdering two fishermen off the Kerala coast in 2012, were allowed to return, the Italians have softened their opposition.

India's efforts to get into the MTCR also got a boost after it agreed to join the Hague Code of Conduct, dealing with the ballistic missile non-proliferation arrangement, earlier this month.

MTCR membership will enable India to buy high-end missile technology and also enhance its joint ventures with Russia.

The aim of the MTCR is to restrict the proliferation of missiles, complete rocket systems, unmanned air vehicles and related technology for those systems capable of carrying a 500 kilogramme payload for at least 300 kilometres, as well as systems intended for the delivery of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 27 Jun 2016 07:09

abhik wrote:
Gagan wrote:It will be fun to see the chinese diplomutts squirm when their application for MTCR is discussed, with the Indian diplomat pointing out M-11, M-9 sales, NoKo-via-china sales to albakistan in violation of all norms
Except the Chinese aren't stupid enough to enter the MTCR.

So,why did they apply for membership then?

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 27 Jun 2016 07:16

SSridhar wrote:So,why did they apply for membership then?

Because while they may not be stupid enough to enter MTCR, they most certainly are stupid enough to apply for membership to MTCR.

Dumal · Post by **Dumal** » 27 Jun 2016 08:25

Re. the discussion here on avoiding Chinese goods, a dose of untimely irony!

Paytm to help Indian sellers source from China - Livemint http://www.livemint.com/Industry/8IcNXY ... China.html

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 27 Jun 2016 10:45

NSG membership: The writing on the great wall - Shyam Saran, The Hindu

The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) meeting in Seoul last week ended with no decision on India’s application to join the group as a full member. This outcome was widely expected ever since China took a public stand against a non-signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) being granted membership, since it felt this would undermine the international non-proliferation regime. It elaborated this position further by suggesting that the NSG thoroughly discuss the subject of membership of non-NPT states so that a set of objective criteria could be agreed upon and that no application was treated as an exceptional case.

Having taken this stance, China tried to prevent any formal discussion on India’s application for membership, saying that the issue of agreed criteria for admitting non-NPT members had to be discussed and agreed upon first. When Chinese objections were overcome and a discussion on India’s application was held eventually, this did not materially change the situation since China and a few other members continued to oppose a decision on the same procedural grounds.

The NSG outcome document is in line with Chinese insistence that what should remain on the agenda is the basis on which non-NPT countries could be considered for membership without undermining the NPT as a cornerstone of the international non-proliferation regime. Therefore, India’s entry into the NSG as a unique and exceptional case may be extremely difficult even if a determined lobbying effort is launched in the coming weeks and months. The only practical possibility would be for India and Pakistan to be admitted together, which China has indicated it would be willing to support. The problem is that most NSG members will have to hold their noses to swallow and digest the Pakistani application, even if India has no objection. China has ensured that India and Pakistan are now joined at the hip as far as entry into the NSG is concerned.

Working around China

In 2008, India was able to get a waiver from the NSG as an exceptional case allowing it to engage in international commerce in civilian nuclear technology and equipment even though, as a nuclear weapon state, it did not have all its nuclear facilities under international safeguards as required by the group. China was opposed to the waiver but did not take a public stand on it. It encouraged countries like Ireland, New Zealand, Austria and Switzerland to oppose a consensus on the waiver for India, arguing that it would seriously undermine the NPT, that it would upset the nuclear balance in South Asia and trigger a nuclear arms race, and that a criteria-based rather than a country-specific approach should be adopted in order to avoid the charge of discriminatory practice. This was conveyed to me by the then New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark when I called on her to solicit her country’s support at the NSG.

However, whenever the issue was raised with the Chinese in meetings between our top leaders or senior officials, the response was a standard mantra: China welcomes the opportunity to promote civil nuclear cooperation with India, but would not want to undermine in any way the international non-proliferation regime. This was ambiguous enough to give China tactical flexibility at the NSG. In light of this ambiguous public posture, our assessment was that if a broad consensus could be built on granting India a waiver, China would not be the one country to raise its hand and oppose the decision. And this is precisely what happened. On the morning of September 6, 2008, even before the last holdout countries like Ireland, New Zealand and Austria had formally dropped their opposition, China conveyed a message to the Indian delegation that it had decided to support the draft waiver decision.

Future-proofing the waiver

Eight years later the geopolitical backdrop against which the NSG meeting took place in Seoul has changed substantially and made it more difficult for India to obtain what should have been a very simple, straightforward decision on membership. The waiver in 2008 had involved very difficult and complex negotiations on the wording of the decision reconciling the different requirements posed by certain key member countries. India’s current application for membership could have been approved by a simple reference to the waiver decision itself which spells out the basis on which it was granted. This may have been the reason for China to take a public stand opposing India’s membership since there was no scope to attach additional requirements beyond those contained in the waiver.

It is only if there is a fresh discussion on so-called “criteria” applicable to all non-NPT applicants that the criteria on the basis of which India has already received a waiver could be reopened. This is a slippery road and India should be careful that in subsequent deliberations the NSG does not revisit the terms and conditions of the India-specific waiver. In case such a threat is perceived, it is better to preserve the substantive gains already obtained through the waiver rather than to push hard for membership. The waiver has allowed India to engage in civil nuclear commerce with a number of countries. It has entered into long-term nuclear fuel supply agreements with a number of supplier countries and is negotiating the supply of advanced nuclear reactors with Russia, France and the U.S. Membership of the NSG would not make a substantive difference except that it would make the conditions for international civil nuclear commerce and cooperation more predictable in the long run and also ensure that in any future amendments to NSG guidelines India is an active participant.

A more confident China’s strategy

Why has China taken a more public and upfront position opposing India’s membership in the NSG? Clearly China today is a more confident and assertive power than in 2008. It may even consider being the last man standing as a demonstration of its newfound great power status rather than a sign of international isolation. Trying to isolate or embarrass China on this count may therefore be counterproductive. Second, there is a clear enhancement of China’s commitment to Pakistan, not only as its traditional proxy against India but also because it has been assigned a key role in Xi Jinping’s ambitious One Belt, One Road project. Third, it is to relegate India to the minor league by clubbing it together with Pakistan, thereby dismissing the de-hyphenation which the U.S. has projected at least rhetorically. This also seeks to reject the India-China hyphenation which U.S. strategy appears to promote. China considers itself as being in the same league as the U.S.

The NSG drama has brought to the surface trends which have been incipient so far but whose implications go beyond the immediate issue of NSG membership and reflect the ongoing changes in the geopolitical landscape. We should take advantage of the NSG experience to carefully assess these changes, their impact on India and fashion an appropriate response strategy. That is more important than the pursuit of NSG membership.

Shyam Saran is a former Foreign Secretary. He is currently Chairman, Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), and Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research.

habal · Post by **habal** » 27 Jun 2016 11:15

Dumal wrote:Re. the discussion here on avoiding Chinese goods, a dose of untimely irony!

Paytm to help Indian sellers source from China - Livemint http://www.livemint.com/Industry/8IcNXY ... China.html

you do realize that the agreement may well have been finalized before 24 June, unfortunately for them the timing just doesn't work out to their favor.

myself have atleast 20 parcels on order from alibaba/aliexpress at any given point of time. I have decided forthwith to reroute all my supplies to alternate non-chinese suppliers. Even if they be a bit more expensive.

habal · Post by **habal** » 27 Jun 2016 11:55

twitteroor:

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 27 Jun 2016 12:09

With each passing day, the NSG fog is becoming clearer and China's deep villainy is shining.

Truly, China remains isolated. As Shyam Saran says that unlike in c. 2008, this time China remained steadfast. The question is why. Shyam Saran lists three reasons: the desire by China to display its virility, its deep commitment to Pakistan and to belittle India and keep it confined to the Indian Subcontinent.

I believe that in addition to the above, it has another reason: it wants India as a bargaining chip to reverse the US threats and it needs Pakistan badly for that for a two-front war (this is different from a commitment to Pakistan). It has to be seen by Pakistan as truly an 'iron brother' standing up for Pakistan against all odds.

We have discussed all these in the China Threat thread. The problem is that unlike in c. 2008 when, for various reasons (such as its newness to NSG or desire for trade with India or woo India for its long term strategic goals) it decided to throw in the towel when the mood favoured India eventually, the fact that it stood very firm till the end all alone and isolated, suggests that it will not relent in the next round as well.

That is where the NSG members have to have an alternate plan because China is a wrecker-in-chief essentially.

habal · Post by **habal** » 27 Jun 2016 12:17

do read the 'process as punishment' article.

The Wire has learned that a few European and other countries had formed an informal bloc within the NSG to raise objections before the June 9 meeting in Vienna and subsequently in Seoul on June 23-24. The approach of “unity in numbers” was designed to withstand US pressure, which they knew would come sooner or later.

Well-informed sources say that diplomats from Austria, New Zealand and Ireland in New Delhi were especially active in evolving a coordinated strategy to raise questions about India. They even attempted to involve China. It is unclear whether the Chinese were merely providing moral support or also helping design the diplomatic arsenal against India.

A similar pattern was discernible in Vienna where the Swiss and Austrians were especially irked that India was not listening to their concerns, sources said. It is a different matter that New Delhi can do nothing to address their primary objection – India remains outside the NPT.

In the run up to Vienna and Seoul, these countries used the NSG’s confidentiality rules – only member countries are privy to what happens behind closed doors – to give India the run around. They used the excuse of trying to achieve “consensus” among members on India’s application before they could talk to New Delhi about its prospects.

They repeatedly raised problems of process and procedures, making them appear as minor and surmountable but in reality those questions were designed to delay progress.

China’s determined opposition to India – for geopolitical reasons and to protect its all-weather friend Pakistan – gave these countries the required cover. Some European diplomats reportedly found parallels between China’s stand within the NSG and the role played by France in the UN Security Council in the run up to the Iraq war.

In 2003, France effectively denied the Bush administration the much-needed UN cover for its invasion of Iraq by threatening to use its veto. The French resistance thus gave less powerful members of the Security Council more reason to stand up and be counted.

The China-France comparison may not be entirely accurate. France acted out of conviction, based on widespread public opposition to the war while China’s stand is driven by geopolitics rather than fidelity to nonproliferation rules that it has itself been credibly accused of violating.

Since China joined the NSG in 2004, it has signed agreements with Pakistan for four civilian nuclear reactors despite the group’s guidelines prohibiting this. It has done so by insisting these agreements were first envisaged before China’s membership of the cartel. Neither the Europeans nor the Obama Administration called Beijing out.

...

Despite this record, those countries anxious to renew their faith in non-proliferation ideals at Seoul found no irony in hiding behind China. In fact, say sources familiar with the diplomatic interactions which preceded the plenary, this fitted their strategy perfectly – they could point to Beijing as the main objector while they raised problems about the “process” of considering India’s application. It was a way to avoid US pressure – and minimise bilateral costs vis-a-vis India.

In addition, they hobbled India by not talking to it directly, citing secrecy rules. This made negotiations supremely difficult because Indian diplomats were primarily dependent on their friends inside the NSG to brief them. The information flow was restricted to say the least because no one wants to be seen as openly violating the rules.

The Americans acted as the intermediary for the most part but every time they conveyed an argument and India addressed it, another would pop up from some other member of the club.

...

India should keep in mind the possibility that the position of “conscientious objectors” may continue to vacillate and New Delhi may be left “clutching” at straws from all 10 of them. As an analyst familiar with the Seoul scenario said, “India doesn’t seem to understand that the ‘process’ is where the game is being played and that’s why the minor objectors are more problematic than China in some ways.”

The Obama administration has let it be known that it plans to continue pushing India’s case and succeed. In the wake of all the disappointment in New Delhi, a senior US official told PTI: “We are confident that India would be a full member of the regime by the end of the year.”

For that to happen, the playbook may need new songs.

http://thewire.in/46175/process-as-puni ... m-the-nsg/

habal · Post by **habal** » 27 Jun 2016 12:28

my take on this matter is:

1. these 10 or so countries are basically represented by 'swayam-sevaks', in absence of a clear vision, commitment and pressure from USA they are vaccilating and are basically on take from either ISI or PLA or both. These are basically low hanging assets for the two rogue entities and may be even have had previous postings in the region and may have been cultivated then. It is also possible that they have conveyed their position to back home and got leadership in confidence.

2. even before NSG meeting, pakistanis with their meagre resources had either teamed up with China or Turkey and bought these 10 envoys to NSG into confidence. They were rather confident that Modi would not succeed on NSG day.

3. curiously inspite of chinese opposition, resolution has been passed to form a panel which holds consultations on India's membership.

4. also a panel that holds consultation for India's membership will most probably have diplomats representing India. Then it would nice to know who wants to have a go against India.

so americans can manage the show inspite of Chinese pressure, Indians need to be wary not to concede more on pretext of gaining NSG membership. Any which more than what has been agreed to in 2008 exemptions. There is no need for Modi to expend personal capital on this issue, but there is a need to expend punishment to recalciterants.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 27 Jun 2016 12:40

In the time between now and November when the NSG is likely to reconvene, India must use diplomacy and economic carrots & sticks with these countries. They cannot run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.

habal · Post by **habal** » 27 Jun 2016 12:44

I have edited that post slightly after you made the post. In the informal consultations panel, India will have a representative. Most likely the foreign secretary, so these Chinese pawns will have to present their case before him and he may then also respond.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Jun 2016 12:45

If one goes back and checks the posts over the Indo-US nuclear deal and the NSG waiver, one finds the same countries who were objecting - Austria, New Zealand, Ireland, followed by Switzerland, Norway and Netherlands.

The term used at the time for this group was Pipsqueak. That is what they are, and basically they are using their last card, NSG membership to show their importance.

Once that goes, they don't really have much of any influence left. NSG is basically an anti-India grouping. There isn't another power who would have to face the bureaucratic/diplomatic resistance from the Pipsqueak anytime soon - not Iran, not Pakistan and not North Korea, simply because those crazies don't even come into the picture.

In other world organizations, these Pipsqueak do not really have much of a voice, not even in the EU, when facing the likes of Germany and France, and in the UN General Assembly they are single votes in a sea of many, where decisions are based on majorities.

So, this is basically their last stand at importance, where they can live their racism and their Christianist snobbery all well packaged behind "upholders of mankind's conscience" act.

One way to deal with them is to get hold of business people who are in on the inside and work on them. After all that is how Pipsqueak the world over survive, by putting small unbridgeable stones in one's path, saving their skin from the ire of other by pleading "conscience".

NaMo may have to dangle some carrots in front of businessmen from these countries.