Tracking India's Admission into International Groups & Bodies

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 Jun 2016 10:02

India truly aligned with America now, PM Modi hints in his address to US Congress

India is ready to be the net security provider for the Indian Ocean region, anchoring peace and prosperity from Asia to Africa, from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific, but it's effectiveness would increase only if such institutions [such as NSG] reflect the realities of today, Modi told lawmakers

member_27581 · Post by **member_27581** » 09 Jun 2016 11:50

Anyone betting that Bharat will make it to the NSG?

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 09 Jun 2016 12:06

It will be done

There will be controversy and discussion later.

But the balance with China has to done else it will bring disorder. Trade and commerce will suffer

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 Jun 2016 12:14

As India gains NSG support, Pakistan raises South Asian 'stability' bogey - Shubodheep Chakravarthy, ToI

Even as PM Narendra Modi was busy getting support from Switzerland, the US and Mexico, for its bid for membership to the the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), Pakistan was also working overtime to rally support for itself.

While Pakistan has made a case for itself by citing its "technical experience, capability and well-established commitment to nuclear safety", it has also opposed membership for India saying that it "could affect the strategic stability of South Asia."

The rather contrasting view came from Pakistan on Wednesday.

According to reports in the Pakistani press, a briefing session was held in Islamabad on Wednesday with diplomats from NSG countries.

"Pakistan has the expertise, manpower, infrastructure and the ability to supply Nuclear Suppliers Group controlled items, goods and services for a full range of nuclear applications for peaceful uses," Tasnim Aslam, head of the UN desk at the foreign office, told the diplomats present during the briefing.

On Wednesday, foreign minister Sartaj Aziz reportedly had telephonic conversations with his counterparts in Russia, South Korea and New Zealand in a bid to get their nod for Pakistan's NSG membership. "Pakistan attaches high priority to nuclear safety and security. It has taken legal, regulatory and administrative measures to bring nuclear safety and security at par with international standards," Pakistan foreign office said in a statement.

Even though the country is trying hard to advocate an 'objective approach' from current NSG members, its own image remains shrouded by its past nuclear dealings and current internal instability.

Pakistan, though, may have realised the scale of the question mark on its own bid for NSG membership. That's why it is focussed on putting a full stop on India's efforts.

member_27581 · Post by **member_27581** » 09 Jun 2016 13:43

^^Reminds of MPs comment "Pakistan ko mirchi lagi, andhra wali"

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 09 Jun 2016 13:48

ranjan.rao wrote:Anyone betting that Bharat will make it to the NSG?

I will. If my reading is right - Modi won't put himself out there like this without reasonable assurance of victory.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 Jun 2016 15:04

My reading is that China has put itself in a corner and it is not going to relent especially after the resounding success of Modi's US trip. It will see any change of its stance as a loss of face.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 09 Jun 2016 16:01

SSji,

Agreed that China is unlikely to change its stance. However, I differ on the reason - it is not likely to be due to any potential loss of face, but due to a well thought out strategy to exclude India from any forums of importance including NSG and UNSC. Communist mindset does not leave much grey areas and collaborations on the table. They see things in black and white as much as possible.

My reading is that Modi sensed that China has closed the window of collaboration with us to have a more balanced stance towards them. Their continued insistence in blocking India in every forum, blocking NSG membership, protecting terrorists sought by India in UN has finally made Modi give up our efforts to cajole China. Modi made a clear mention of respect of international laws, protecting navigational rights in traditional trade routes, extending US partnership from Indian ocean to pacific ocean in his address to US congress. He need not have taken such a definitive position unless he feels China is hell bent on blocking India.

I hope I am proved wrong and China relents and we get into NSG this year. Lets see.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 Jun 2016 16:39

schinnas, of course China wants to keep us isolated and do not creep anywhere close to it.

The reason I said 'loss of face' is because the context in NSG is now different. If we look at the 2008 waiver whcih again needed unanimity among the member states, China was working behind the scenes to sabotage it. But, in the end, it got exposed. It then decided to stay away from the NSG meeting thus trying to wreck it leaving Pres. Bush to call his Chinese counterpart etc.

But, this time around, it made its intentions very clear right in the beginning drawing out the redlines. Signing NPT and considering Pakistan's admission. While spelling out the demand for NPT signature, it said that many NSG member states were demanding that and it was sine qua non for admission. India's (and the US') efforts were to call that bluff and it looks like we have pulled it off although Ireland's position may yet be unknown. Rest have all fallen in place to the inevitable. China will be standing naked. To come down would amount to resiling from a position which it has been calling as 'very principled'. It has been facing flak everywhere and the ITLOS arbitration, expected in two weeks' time, will also be a setback (though it might win on some points). It feels cornered everywhere and being defiant in NSG, at the cost of India, would seem to be a much vaunted morale-booster. It may miscalculate that India would take this affront lying down.

But India is an elephant (which we have to always remind ourselves) and elephants have a huge memory.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 Jun 2016 17:00

China leads resistance to India joining nuclear export club - Reuters

China is leading opposition to a push by the United States and other major powers for India to join the main club of countries controlling access to sensitive nuclear technology, diplomats said on Thursday as the group discussed India's membership bid.

Other countries opposing Indian membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) include New Zealand, Ireland, Turkey, South Africa and Austria, diplomats said.

Opponents argue that granting it membership would further undermine efforts to prevent proliferation. It would also infuriate India's rival Pakistan , which responded to India's membership bid with one of its own and has the backing of its close ally China.

"By bringing India on board, it's a slap in the face of the entire non-proliferation regime," a diplomatic source from one of a handful of countries resisting India's push said on condition of anonymity.

A decision on Indian membership is not expected before an NSG plenary meeting in Seoul on June 20, but diplomats said Washington had been pressuring hold-outs, and Thursday's closed-door meeting was a chance to see how strong opposition is.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry wrote to members asking them "not to block consensus on Indian admission to the NSG" in a letter seen by Reuters and dated Friday.

China, however, showed no sign of backing down from its opposition to India joining unless Pakistan becomes a member. That would be unacceptable to many, given Pakistan's track record -- the father of its nuclear weapons programme sold nuclear secrets to countries including North Korea and Iran .

"China, if anything, is hardening (its position)," another diplomat said.

Most of the hold-outs oppose the idea of admitting a non-NPT state such as India and argue that if it is to be admitted, it should be under criteria that apply equally to all states rather than under a "tailor-made" solution for a U.S. ally.

Mexico's president said on Wednesday his country supports India's membership bid, but one Vienna-based diplomat said it still opposed the idea of it joining under conditions that did not apply equally to all.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 09 Jun 2016 17:04

Modi/Doval/Sushma might have tried this: but wouldn't it make sense to appease China by offering short term intangibles (we won't raise Tibet-question for next 3 years) in exchange for long term tangibles (NSG support)?

Also, it will help India's case if we urge our idiot media to stop talking about NSG as a "photo finish".

Lastly, the Brahmos sale to Vietnam might just be a stick that will be withdrawn if China supports us on NSG. China is also playing the game by publicly naming Pakistan for Mumbai 26/11. That is *their concession* to perhaps some offer that was on the table. Might be their way of saying *we need more to move the needle on NSG*.

China might also urge Pakis to behave & go easy on the terror front till the NSG meet happens.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 09 Jun 2016 17:14

SSridhar wrote:My reading is that China has put itself in a corner and it is not going to relent especially after the resounding success of Modi's US trip. It will see any change of its stance as a loss of face.

Who are the other holdouts?

if China does not drop objection then this is second open opposition after the massood azhar UN thing? Btw, any movement on that?

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 09 Jun 2016 17:18

Interesting that South Africa is an opponent on NSG. They are one of the target customers for Brahmos export. There's a bit of leverage there.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 09 Jun 2016 17:21

Gus wrote:Who are the other holdouts?

Supposedly, New Zealand, Ireland, Turkey, South Africa and Austria as the article above says.

Tur(d)key is self-explanatory, probably NZ as well. The rest are puzzling to say the least, PM had a reasonably successful Ireland visit. And why would South Africa be opposed to India in NSG?

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 09 Jun 2016 17:23

Are these old positions not yet updated or recently stated explicit positions?

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 09 Jun 2016 17:28

Modi/Doval/Sushma might have tried this: but wouldn't it make sense to appease China by offering short term intangibles (we won't raise Tibet-question for next 3 years) in exchange for long term tangibles (NSG support)?

Lastly, the Brahmos sale to Vietnam might just be a stick that will be withdrawn if China supports us on NSG.[/quote]

The only concession that Chinese will want is to accept Arunachal as defacto Chinese territory and let them expand their real estate in the Ladakh sector. And oh, an immediate transfer of Tawang.

Prem Kumar wrote:China is also playing the game by publicly naming Pakistan for Mumbai 26/11. That is *their concession* to perhaps some offer that was on the table. Might be their way of saying *we need more to move the needle on NSG*.

Pak-based group, not the Pak government or government agencies. This came conveniently after Hafeez Saeed raised a stink over ban on Ramazan fasting in Xinjiang.

Prem Kumar wrote:China might also urge Pakis to behave & go easy on the terror front till the NSG meet happens.

Not bloody likely, they'll come down hard on Pakis to wipe out any signs of Turkestan liberation movement from spreading its wings in Pakistan. That's it. Oh and they'll tell the Pakis (I suspect they have read the riot act already) to keep a check on Hafeez suar before they make a Xiao Long Bao of him.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 09 Jun 2016 17:29

South Africa has Uranium reserves. Maybe they want some sweetener "minimum purchase agreement" as quid pro quo

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 09 Jun 2016 18:05

If the US leans on other states, they would relent.
IMHO,China and Turkey are two major obstructions.
Turkey because it is under an out and out Islamist dictator and China because it wants to continue blocking India`s entry into these groups.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 Jun 2016 18:25

Gus wrote:Are these old positions not yet updated or recently stated explicit positions?

Not up-to-date, I would say.

AFAIK, NZ no longer opposes. I would presume that Ireland was the only other hold-out, but it would soften too. China will stand-out as a sore thumb.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 Jun 2016 18:28

OK, here is an update on NZ

New Zealand to 'carefully consider' India NSG bid - ToI

India's bid for the NSG membership will likely go right down to the wire, as it did eight years ago when India finally managed to get a clean waiver from the group to carry out nuclear commerce. One of the three main hold-out nations then, New Zealand, has told TOI through its foreign affairs and trade ministry that India's application will be a subject of "careful consideration" later this month.

New Zealand was the most vocal among a group of six countries including Ireland, Austria, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Norway, which India suspected were instigated in 2008 by China to resist the India-specific exemption NSG was contemplating. While the remaining three relented after a while, New Zealand, along with Austria and Ireland, continued to seek conditionalities. Government sources in New Delhi said they were expecting New Zealand to ask some tough questions but added that eventually it was going to support India.

member_27581 · Post by **member_27581** » 09 Jun 2016 18:39

I am actually surprised with NZ and more so Ireland. Irish people in my experience are much nicer than Britishers and much straight forward..

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 09 Jun 2016 18:46

My guess would be that flipping positions easily would make them look like sock puppets (which they were for China)

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 09 Jun 2016 20:21

I would think that US can lean on NZ. Didn't Modi visit turkey? They being nato, US can lean on them as well. They really have no national interest against India (maybe personal religious stuff).

I think China will be last guy standing.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 10 Jun 2016 05:21

Quest for another holy grail - T.P.Sreenivasan, The Hindu

India’s 30-year-old effort to secure a permanent seat on the UN Security Council has been characterised as the pursuit of a diplomatic holy grail. The chance of success in that pursuit has been receding like a mirage, though there have been tantalising signs of progress. A similar, but less intense effort is on to seek admission to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), a body which should have included India in the first place. Here again, there is no sign of India being invited, even as the 10-year moratorium on new membership has expired. India has now embarked on another quest, this time to seek membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). The Prime Minister himself has travelled to Switzerland to seek support and he will also go to Mexico for the same purpose. It is surprising that India is investing much diplomatic effort on this issue when there is little chance of India being invited to the group.

An American initiative

India seeking membership of the NSG is like Russia seeking membership of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation: the NSG was invented to prevent Indian advance towards possession of nuclear weapons after the technology demonstration test of 1974. If India joins it, the very nature of the NSG will change and dilute its fundamental position that all members should be signatories to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Though the U.S. has stated repeatedly that it would like to see India in the NSG, it cannot be expected to be a party to the fundamental alteration of the NPT regime.

Interestingly, it was a U.S. think tank which brought up the topic in a Track II discussion with some of us in 2007. The suggestion was not that India should be given membership of the NSG, but that India should join all multilateral export control regimes like the NSG, Missile Technology Control Regime (which it is set to join later this year), the Wassenaar Arrangement for control of conventional weapons and the Australia Group for control of chemicals that could contribute to chemical and biological weapons. It appeared then that the whole proposal was to drag us into Wassenaar Arrangement and the Australia Group by presenting them as a package. We had refrained from joining both, though they were open for us from the beginning, for our own reasons. Our response to the U.S. proposal was guarded as we did not want a bargain on all the groups together. We did, however, emphasise that India’s membership of the NSG would be helpful as it had received an exemption from the NSG guidelines. As a member of the group, we could contribute to the discussion if it sought to amend the guidelines in any manner. In other words, it was not an Indian initiative to press for admission to the NSG.

U.S. President Barack Obama formalised the proposal in 2010, as though it was a concession to India, in his bid to win various contracts, including nuclear supplies. Perhaps, he was aware that a decision on the NSG was not in his hands, but promised to take up the matter with the others just to win some goodwill in the process. As was expected, the fundamental requirement that every member should be a signatory to the NPT was brought up not only by China but several others. There was similar opposition in the case of the exemption from NSG guidelines at the time of the nuclear deal also, but our bilateral efforts and heavy lifting by the U.S., including a final phone call from the U.S. President to his Chinese counterpart, resulted in the exemption. The strength of the argument was that this would be a one-time exemption with no strings attached.

No great gains in the offing

Interestingly, the NSG is an informal grouping, which is referred to in the International Atomic Energy Agency documents only as “certain states”, and there is no precise procedure for seeking admission. But since the group takes all its decisions by consensus, it follows that new members should also be by consensus. For those outside the group, there is an outreach programme which is being pursued vigorously. The outreach programme is meant merely for conveying information and not for consultation. New Delhi hosted an outreach meeting a few years ago, but it was found that the exercise was not of much use in influencing the guidelines.

The pursuit of membership of the NSG by India at the highest level has aroused suspicion that India is aiming to be in the group to deny entry to Pakistan. Such an interpretation is the result of lack of any clarity as to the benefits that will accrue to India by joining the NSG. In fact, membership of the group will not immediately open up nuclear trade as India has already pledged not to transfer nuclear know-how to other countries. If we attempt to dilute the guidelines to liberalise supply, it will be resisted by the others. Membership of the NSG will only mean greater pressure on us to sign the NPT and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) and commit in advance to a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty, which would impose restrictions on existing stockpiles of fissile material.

China has given scant attention to the NSG guidelines and has violated them in the case of Pakistan by claiming to act under an agreement reached before China joined the NSG. Unlike India, Pakistan has not even sought an exemption from the NSG. To say, therefore, that India and Pakistan should be equated on nuclear matters is unreasonable, to say the least. But the NSG did not even challenge the supply of two new reactors to Pakistan by China. The NSG’s ineffectiveness in countering proliferation makes it even less attractive as a group India should join.

The green signal for India to join the MTCR came when Mr. Modi was in Washington purely by coincidence, as the last date for filing objections happened to be that day. Italy had held up its approval on account of the Italian marines issue, but did not file a formal objection because of the decision to let the marines go home. Membership of the MTCR, which restricts the weight and range of missiles, is being projected as clearing the way for NSG. This is not likely because of China except that we can now threaten to veto China if it applies for membership of the MTCR.

When India is not anywhere near the permanent membership of the Security Council and even APEC membership remains elusive, the high-level pursuit of NSG membership may give the impression that India is unrealistic in its expectations from the international community. Support by Switzerland and Mexico will not make any difference as there will not be a vote on the issue. The U.S. may reiterate its support, but the objection will come from China and even some others. It will be better for India to concentrate on one or two fundamental objectives rather than fritter away our diplomatic resources on matters of marginal interest.

T.P. Sreenivasan is a former Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, and followed the Nuclear Suppliers Group in Vienna.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 10 Jun 2016 05:58

India expects ‘domino effect’ on support - Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu

Given China’s public opposition to India’s entry into the elite Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), India has been working on garnering support of other countries in the group to isolate China.

Ahead of the plenary session that began in Vienna on Thursday to consider membership application, an official in the know of the negotiations told The Hindu, “What we would hope for is a domino effect, where countries that support India influence the ones still holding out.” Statements during the meetings by countries like Sweden in support of India could also turn the tide in India’s favour.

Others still hesitant

Though NSG negotiations are held behind closed doors and a final decision is expected by consensus at the plenary session in Seoul on June 24 and 25, agency reports from Vienna say Austria, Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa and Austria are among countries still holding out on India. “China is the big block clearly, but there are a few ‘question marks’ that remain in the group too, who believe non-NPT members must not be admitted,” a diplomat said.

In particular, Pakistan’s application for membership, which will also be taken up, is expected to queer the pitch. According to a Reuters report, China was “hardening its position” on Pakistan being given the same consideration as India. But diplomats The Hindu spoke to said Pakistan’s poor record in nuclear proliferation and in not having brought its facilities under IAEA safeguards would make it an unlikely candidate for support.

Pakistan’s efforts

In contrast, Pakistan, which had applied for membership a week after India did in May, said it was warning NSG members that India’s entry would disturb “strategic stability in South Asia”.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 10 Jun 2016 06:02

Engage China directly on NSG: Experts - Kallol Bhattacherjee, The Hindu

India must engage China directly to overcome Beijing’s opposition to New Delhi’s membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

“The Chinese have not indicated till now that they are willing to look beyond the ‘principled position’ that they have cited while suggesting that they will not favour entry of non-NPT members like India into the NSG. The main issue is what will China gain by helping India enter into NSG,” said Professor Alka Acharya of the JNU, highlighting the short-term considerations of China in this case.

The NSG issue, Professor Acharya says, is now part of the overall bunch of bilateral issues between India and China and cannot be seen in isolation. {Prof. Alka Acharya is always seen taking a pro-China stance}

Professor Rajesh Rajagopalan of the Centre for International Politics and Disarmament in JNU said China might support India if it realised that the NPT regime might spiral out of control if responsible nuclear powers were not allowed to partner the new nuclear age.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 10 Jun 2016 08:10

With Mtcr cleared, can we sell brahmos to South China Sea rim countries and would that change balance against Chinese naval presence? Is that our leverage against China at NSG?

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 10 Jun 2016 08:21

Can we spin china game and work towards their expulsion from NSG? There is pretty strong proliferation case against them.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 10 Jun 2016 08:51

Gus wrote:With Mtcr cleared, can we sell brahmos to South China Sea rim countries and would that change balance against Chinese naval presence? Is that our leverage against China at NSG?

We never needed membership in MTCR to sell BrahMos to Vietnam. Probably, we waited for membership so as not to queer the MTCR pitch and more importantly Russian concurrence. It seems we now have Russian concurrence (see the last sentence in this post in the Chinese Threat thread).

As for BrahMos being a leverage for NSG admission, it will most certainly not be. The BrahMos sales pitch has been going on for a long time with a very friendly Vietnam and we cannot drop the sales and betray a friend. The two are not related to each other. Most nations of ASEAN and others like Japan, Korea & Australia are looking up to India in the challenge to Chinese hegemony and that expectation cannot be belied. Challenging China is a much, much bigger stake for us than admission into NSG. IMHO, the only way China can be made to see reason is by isolating it in the NSG. But, China has staked too much and too openly too, that it may not want to climbdown, that is my feeling.

Very frequently, PRC puts itself in a corner vis-a-vis India. For example, its objection oil exploration by India in Vietnamese EEZ but its justification of investments in POK, its support for Islamist jihadi cross-border terrorism against us in UNSC but its treatment of Uyghurs, its proximity with the US up to 1990s but its objection to closer Indo-US relationship now, its objection to Indo-USSR relationship earlier but its proximity now etc. etc. Its NSG fiasco must top it all, Insh'a Alla'h.

China is unfit to be in NSG & MTCR.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 10 Jun 2016 09:52

T P Sreenivasan asks a pertinent point. What's the sudden rush in signing all these treaties? We already have the benefits of NSG without formally being part of it. Our missile technologies have progressed quite well in spite of MTCR restrictions. Call me a skeptic, but advantages like "access to Predator-C" etc are all very minor. There is a higher likelihood that our domestic programs will get scuttled by access to hi-tech Khan gizmos. Staying hungry is important for innovation.

Hope Modi, in his eagerness, doesn't become an MMS vis-a-vis USA

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 10 Jun 2016 18:35

It is important to be in this three letter and four letter clubs if you want to play at the big table with UNSC being the ultimate goal. The Hindu is a Communist party - Chinese line newspaper. We shouldn't get discouraged.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 10 Jun 2016 22:26

Nuclear Suppliers Group Meeting On India's Membership Ends Inconclusive
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/nuclear- ... eststories

VIENNA: A two-day meeting in Vienna of the Nuclear Suppliers Group to decide on India's application for membership to the 48-nation club ended today without a breakthrough.India's application is now expected to be taken up in a meeting in Seoul on June 20.The US-led push for India to join the club of countries controlling access to sensitive nuclear technology had made some headway on Thursday as several opponents appeared more willing to work towards a compromise, but China has consistently remained defiant.The Nuclear Suppliers Group or NSG aims to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons by restricting the sale of items that can be used to make those arms. It was set up in response to India's first nuclear test in 1974.India already enjoys most of the benefits of membership under a 2008 exemption to NSG rules granted to support its nuclear cooperation deal with Washington, even though India has developed atomic weapons and never signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the main global arms control pact.After meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House on Thursday, President Barack Obama pledged America's backing for India to be given a seat in the NSG.But China on Thursday maintained its position that the Non-Proliferation Treaty is central to the NSG, diplomats said.The handful of other nations resisting India's admission to the group, including South Africa, New Zealand and Turkey, somewhat softened their stance, opening the door to a process under which non-NPT states such as India might join, diplomats said.

member_24580 · Post by **member_24580** » 10 Jun 2016 23:38

I am inclined to bet otherwise, not that I want to. I do not think chinese are really opposing because they are interested in Pakistan's membership. Thats a smokescreen because they know fairly well that Pakistan has no hope in hell to make it to NSG. I believe they are fairly rattled with Arihant / K4 / Agni testing and know very well that they are in India's cross hair now. They are keen to restrict India's nuclear capability in whatever way they can.

member_23370 · Post by **member_23370** » 11 Jun 2016 00:09

I expect Modi to hit back if china stands in his way. Eleven is no match for him, the only concern is if Obama will be as forceful as GW Bush and send 7-8 carriers to SCS (Future Indo-China Sea).

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 11 Jun 2016 03:49

India holds fire on China opposition to NSG bid, hopes to get dragon nod - Indrani Bagchi, ToI

India is refraining from openly criticising China despite it emerging as the biggest opponent to New Delhi's NSG membership bid. The avalanche of adverse public opinion against China has rattled both Beijing and New Delhi.

Sources said demonising China would have the effect of Beijing doing exactly what India doesn't want it to do. In the past few days, India has eased up on China — making it easier for Chinese scholars to come to India on conference visas, which has been a long-standing grouse against the Indian system. In addition, Chinese sailors docking off India would find it easier to come ashore with quick visas being available to them. The India-US joint statement conveniently dropped reference to South China Sea to refrain from official China-bashing.

If India completes the legal scrubbing of its paperwork for Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in time, India and Pakistan could join the SCO summit this year. In that case, sources said, there is a very good chance of PM Narendra Modi going for the summit scheduled to be held in Tashkent on June 23-24. If Modi does travel, there is a chance of him lobbying personally with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The NSG plenary is scheduled for June 20-24 in Seoul. The SCO secretary-general Rashid Alimov was quoted as saying India and Pakistan had completed their agreements in principle for joining.

The preliminary technical meeting of the NSG in Vienna on Thursday discussed the new applications from India, Pakistan and Namibia. The discussions, according to sources, recognised the merit in the Indian application but some countries raised the matter of process and criteria. Sources said there were about five countries left as holdouts, even as India is racing against time to convince them.

Many in the government acknowledge that the Indian exercise to lobby for NSG membership came late. That's largely because much time was wasted in the past few years - first India could not take it up seriously, hobbled as it was with other nuclear issues; then, the previous government decided to approach all four regimes - NSG, MTCR, Wassenaar and Australia Group - together. This made it impossible to move on any one.

In the last year, the government had a relook at the NSG bid and decided to unbundle them. MTCR and NSG were put on priority. Last week, MTCR, in a "silent procedure", cleared hurdles for India's accession. This has made NSG entry marginally easier for India. In 2008, India had made a formal commitment to abide by non-proliferation commitments in a letter then foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee had written to the NSG. That letter helped burnish India's non-proliferation credentials. It's not clear what extra commitment India can make before the group in

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 11 Jun 2016 04:03

Supratik wrote:It is important to be in this three letter and four letter clubs if you want to play at the big table with UNSC being the ultimate goal. The Hindu is a Communist party - Chinese line newspaper. We shouldn't get discouraged.

Or perhaps we were not disruptive enough that they would have us inside the tent pissing out, than keep pissing into the tent standing outside.

Blame congress governments for being so soft and directionless for so long. If it as up to chacha, Pakistan would be in NSG and MCTR.

disha · Post by **disha** » 11 Jun 2016 04:13

SSridhar wrote:My reading is that China has put itself in a corner and it is not going to relent especially after the resounding success of Modi's US trip. It will see any change of its stance as a loss of face.

That will further isolate China in the international forum as a not-to-be trusted power. An arrogant bully so to speak. Heck they are not even trusted by their fiends Bakistan. And it hurts them to be seen in company with Bakistan.

I think the NSG is merely a formality. Or rather a charade to bring out the inner Bakistan of China.

Added later: CPC is unfit to rule China.

shyamoo · Post by **shyamoo** » 11 Jun 2016 04:16

So, what is our plan b if we fail to the nod? We still have agreements in place by which can import nuclear fuel/ore from various countries. Right?

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 11 Jun 2016 04:27

I think China will relent. There was a suggestion that NSG entry is linked to US/India support for CPEC, dont think so. They cannot relent on the first meeting, some show has to be put up for Bakistan's benefit. I dont think India will offer an serious quid pro quo to China, since the benefits of NSG dont seem very much, as compared to where we are today. Its a matter of when not if, India joins NSG. If entry is delayed, India will start raising the stakes for China.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 11 Jun 2016 04:41

Guddu wrote:I think China will relent. There was a suggestion that NSG entry is linked to US/India support for CPEC, dont think so. They cannot relent on the first meeting, some show has to be put up for Bakistan's benefit. I dont think India will offer an serious quid pro quo to China, since the benefits of NSG dont seem very much, as compared to where we are today. Its a matter of when not if, India joins NSG. If entry is delayed, India will start raising the stakes for China.

India will escalate.

Goal is UNSC seat.

The longer they delay the worse it will get for them.