Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2015

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby CRamS » 27 Dec 2015 18:38

ldev wrote:
These moves on the chessboard indicate some pressure (how much one cannot say) from the West on the Modi Government to have some kind of peace process with Pakistan. So Modi is doing what is necessary and buying these free options on possible peace with Pakistan. From Modi's POV it is necessary because the technology and capital for that all important economic development process in India will to a large part come from the West (including Japan). And so he is keeping them onside.



Excellent points, and my thinking too as you can gauge from my posts. But just a caution, there are some seasoned folks here for whom any mention of super power US pressure on "21st century super power" India to make p!ss with TSP is sacrilegious. Of course, you may not receive as many brick bats I have :-).

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby CRamS » 27 Dec 2015 18:41

This is puke worthy equal equal and shows how insincere even those most "moderate" of RAPEs have in tackling their India-specific pigLeTs:

http://qz.com/581809/from-terror-to-tra ... nd-sharif/


Sixth, it cannot be overstated that Pakistan speeding up Mumbai trials will serve the ends of justice, and usher in goodwill within India. Progress on Samjhauta Express case would help cement this thaw more so in the public perceptions within Pakistan.


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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Karan M » 27 Dec 2015 18:47

Jagga, Shiv, Ldev - excellent posts.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby BharadwajV » 27 Dec 2015 18:51

CRamS Ji, these news items must belong to the thread "Pakistanis and their wet dreams".
Sir Zaid Zaman Hamid(PBUH) and Co. have contributed immensely to the aforementioned thread.
You can go through that thread after a Toke, to laugh your ass off for a couple of hours.

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Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Peregrine » 27 Dec 2015 18:56

Spinster wrote:Now that peace overtures are being made time to get ready for war...

The nature of Pakistan is like scorpion it will embrace with claws but the tail is always poised to sting

A la Kargil

jMT


Spinster Ji :

Good to see you in one of your "Rare Visits".

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Modi is preparing for WAR!
Cheers Image

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby kulhari » 27 Dec 2015 19:17

Many birds with one stone:
1. Ganja was about to be kicked by bad sharif. But this cannot happen now as world will not like a PM (fully involved in making peace with India). Not that west like India but it is naturally bad PR.
2. Image make over from warmonger to more like Atal ji.
3. No concessions in return. (creek, siachen etc.)
4. Demolish arguments of jholachaap award-returning porki chamchaaz.
Porky army will naturally not like it and therefore we should expect some high profile terrorist action in India. May our police etc. are successful in countering terrorist plans. No wonder porky agents and big mouths like sheikh rashid are hinting towards such an attack.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Gagan » 27 Dec 2015 19:32

A truce will be called in Pakistan.
Raheel wants that extension, if Nawaz dithers, he would be deposed.

Nawaz seems to have dug in and has fended off onslaught after onslaught - he has not been crippled and paralyzed as Zardari was by Kiyani. He is still bumbling along. He is a clever cat that one.

He may still be deposed, but it is much much more difficult for the fauj.

Modi has put Pak Fauj in a spot. The Pak Fauj is always caught in a spot every time it has to negotiate directly with GoI. They can't make ANY concessions to Hindu India - or their nazariya-e-pakistan takes a hit. They like ruling by proxy, and want plausible deniability and want to hide behind the civilians.

Now Modi has gone into their Punjabi den at the invitation of the "Civilian" "Prime Minister" with the whole world watching too!
If this visit had been announced in the media, Nazaria-e-bakistan would have taken such a hit, that the Fauj would have to activate a LET terror strike in Lawhore to destabilize the situation and prevent a Modi visit. But now the fauj has had to allow the visit, and distance itself from it too to preserve H&D.

This was Modi taunting Pak Fauj, Nawaz is his partner in this. Thus the constipated pangs of pain in ISPR's media.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby A_Gupta » 27 Dec 2015 19:53

As the saying goes, the elephant has some teeth for show and other teeth for chewing. We've just seen the teeth for show.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Anantha » 27 Dec 2015 19:55

There is definitely some US role in terms of pressure. Although US can't dictate to Modi, the lure and promise of high tech mil weapons/ other industries from US that is rolling and will be rolling into India has be considered. Part of Obama-Modi talks may have involved discussing these components. Yanks don't give anything for free.
Nevertheless a bania type thinker like Modi is not going to trust GHQ. The major test of NM is to prevent a 26/11 type attack on India, which may bring his downfall, due to media and corgis taking over from there. A threat of quick immediate response on GHQ before an investigation of such attack is the only way to prevent this.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby uddu » 27 Dec 2015 20:01

Those days are over. These are our own moves. Why and how need to be watched.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby CRamS » 27 Dec 2015 20:04

Leaving aside all the pressures and lures of US, there is one fundamental disconnect between US and India worth re-iterating, thats where IMO, ModiJi realized diminishing returns in his tough posture towards TSP: In US and western eyes, TSP is NOT the evil that TSP really is to India. Thus, our attempt to isolate TSP failed (although KC Singh has a personal animosity towards BJP/ModiJi, he makes the same point which I agree with), and hence a different approach was needed, especially since India needs those like US and its lackeys for other reasons (investment etc) besides isolating TSP.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby shiv » 27 Dec 2015 20:10

ldev wrote:These moves on the chessboard indicate some pressure (how much one cannot say) from the West on the Modi Government to have some kind of peace process with Pakistan.

If you cannot say what pressure how do you say that there is pressure and it comes from the West? This seems to be your opinion and if so I respect it as your opinion, though I disagree. There is a constituency of people who see the American/western hand in anything that happens in the world - I don't think you are one but I don't see any specific western pressure to make pointless gestures that actually do not make the Pakistani army happy and take everyone off guard and in fact makes some people angry that they were not told or consulted.

Personally I think all that Modi has done is to make himself look good and has cornered both the opposition in India and the Pakis into a situation where he looks good no matter what happens now at least up until the next terrorist attack.

i find it difficult to believe that the US that is so impotent as to have Hafiz Saeed openly and laughingly mocking them from Pakistan is able to subtly dictate Indian actions. That indicates a special form of Indian slavery to the US which Pakistan does not have. If someone can explain how that works to me I would be grateful. I must admit that it upsets me to hear people talk as if Indians have no opinion or wiggle room outside of what the west says. That is not how the world looks like to me from India. In fact it is India that is playing Russia off against the US when it comes to big ticket purchases and I wonder why the US is unable to pressurize India not to make Pakistan insecure by doing all these dangerous arms deals with Russia? The reasoning is unconvincing. If no terrorist attacks occur over the next 3 months and someone tells me that the US has put subtle pressure on Pakistan. I would really want to know how come that pressure has never worked in the past. If the argument is that India pressured Modi to talk after which the US brought pressure on Pakistan, I wonder why that never ever happened before? What is new? What is special that all this pressure from the west is working wonders? What is it exactly that makes people say that Indian policy is a mere puppet in the hands of "the west"? If evidence suggests that Modi is able to think for himself, and there is no evidence of western pressure, what is the exact reasoning behind crediting western pressure for these actions - unless the argument is that Modi cannot have thought of this all by himself without western pressure.

Could it be that Pakistan has felt pain and has conveyed it via Nawaz Sharif and Modi is responding to him? This is an explanation that people who believe that America runs the world dislike. But it is an alternative explanation. There are things that the west does not run, no matter how irritating it may seem to some people in the west.
Last edited by shiv on 27 Dec 2015 20:27, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby A_Gupta » 27 Dec 2015 20:25

http://mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.h ... _Singapore
IISS Fullerton Lecture by Dr. S. Jaishankar, Foreign Secretary in Singapore, July 20, 2015
The transition in India is an expression of greater self-confidence. Its foreign policy dimension is to aspire to be a leading power, rather than just a balancing power.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby CRamS » 27 Dec 2015 20:30

Elementary TSP US India 101. Except for noises, TSPA/ISI have made sure Hafeez pig does not touch US interests. Or else TSP would have invited the wrath of US military. (I think it was SSJi who posted something as to with the alacrity with which TSPA was digging up ISIS connections in TSP in the aftermath of Tafsheen Mallik's terror in CA. Ditto after Faizal Shezaad). TSP dare not be as brazen in allowing an Al Queda leader roam so freely in TSP. Even OBL was hiding securely under TSPA arses until US took him out.

But at the same time, US cannot be brazenly seen as supporting TSP/ISI in their collusion with Hafeez Pig and so some noise about TSPA needs to sever its links with LeT, some bounty on providing evidence against Hafeez etc to keep India happy and maintain this fiction that US is against all forms of terror. Just hot air. US knows very well how crucial Hafeez pig and pigLeTs are in TSP/ISI's arsenal against India. Take them out, and India's 56 inch chest will be in full flow.

Bottom line: we have debated this umpteen times, US wants a "moderate TSP" on its side, in their larger battle against Islamists in the mid east where their interests are much more crucial. And in this endeavor, if Indian interests be sacrificed or at least diluted, so be it. And India's dependence on US for economic and other reasons makes the pressure point as obvious as daylight, at least to me and many others. And likewise, as long as equal equal is maintained, TSP will go along with US diktats. Thus, what we have witnessed in ModiJi's climb-down is US conducting the orchestra to suit its tastes. IMO.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Anantha » 27 Dec 2015 20:52

CRamS +1
but why would NM play along on US requirements?
One answer is India gets to benefit from US high technology over time with at least a fake peace with TSP

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby shiv » 27 Dec 2015 21:09

Anantha wrote:CRamS +1
but why would NM play along on US requirements?
One answer is India gets to benefit from US high technology over time with at least a fake peace with TSP

Everything India gets from the US is a huge threat to Pakistan and everything Pakistan gets from the US is a huge threat to India. So what are the exact benefits to India of listening to the US regarding Pakistan? India actually gets nothing positive but is giving away its freedom of action if we are listening to US dictates. This was exactly the accusation made about MMSs actions and it is now being suggested that new government or not, Indian foreign policy options with regard to Pakistan is dictated by the US. But why? What is India gaining? We are actually gaining nothing positive. Pakistan is getting stronger and remains a threat, continues to wield its nukes and the latest NVGs and comm equipment have been used in recent terror attacks. And yet India is said to be listening to the US on this.

What is the explanation?

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby milano » 27 Dec 2015 21:21

A good OpEd that raises interesting observations that I had not previously considered - that the Pak Fauj is not monolithic, i.e. that PA and ISI can and sometimes do work at cross-purposes. Her piece tends to confirm that you can correlate the mood of the security establishment by what certain anchors and journalists are spewing. That said, I am a bit surprised not to see a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth in the daily rags about this new period of engagement...would appear that the whole Pak establishment (Civ + PA + ISI) are on the same page this time. http://nation.com.pk/columns/27-Dec-2015/the-boyzes

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby A_Gupta » 27 Dec 2015 21:22

Reactions, in the Pioneer, in full:
http://www.dailypioneer.com/todays-news ... kudos.html
From the US to the UN to China to Pakistan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise Lahore stopover has been welcomed globally even as the BJP on Saturday termed his meeting with his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif as a “transformative moment in the sub-continent” and a move that required “courage”. A US media report maintained that Modi has “pressed the reset button on the blow-hot-blow-cold relationship” between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

“We welcome the December 25 meeting between PM Modi and PM (Nawaz) Sharif. Better relations between neighbours, India and Pakistan, will benefit the people of the entire region,” US State Department spokesman John Kirby said, responding to a question on Modi’s surprise visit to Lahore, where he held talks with Sharif.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon too welcomed the meeting between the two leaders, hoping that the bilateral dialogue will be maintained and strengthened further.

“The Secretary General has long been encouraging both leaders of the two countries to engage in dialogue. He obviously welcomes this visit and this step in the right direction and he hopes that the dialogue will be maintained and strengthened,” a UN spokesperson told PTI when asked about the UN chief’s response to Modi’s visit to Pakistan, the first by an Indian Prime Minister in more than a decade.

Modi stayed for over two hours in Lahore on his way back home from Afghanistan on Friday during which he held talks with Sharif at his Raiwind house. It was Sharif’s birthday and also the occasion for his grand-daughter’s mehendi ceremony.

China joined the list of those welcoming Modi’s gesture saying improvement in Indo-Pak ties is significant for regional peace, stability and development.

“The Chinese side has noticed the report and welcomes the latest development in the India-Pakistan relationship,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said, adding the two are important countries in south Asia and the improvement of their relationship will be significant to regional peace, stability and development.

“As the common neighbour and friend of both Pakistan and India, China is happy to see and will support, as always, Pakistan and India to enhance mutual trust and achieve common development through continuous dialogue,” he added.

The BJP rejected Congress’ criticism of Modi’s visit as “childish” and said it has provided yet another opportunity to write a new chapter in

the difficult Indo-Pak relationship. The Congress has alleged that it was a “pre-arranged” meeting arranged by a steel magnate and that Modi’s visit was only to promote private business interests.

But hailing Modi for his “courage, vision, skill and imagination”, the BJP said pursuit of peace in the complex region with its history of fraught ties between the two countries required such courage.

BJP spokesperson MJ Akbar maintained that it required “two authors reading from the same page” to write a new chapter while asserting that the peace process between the two neighbours has been revived in an “extraordinary” manner.

Warm personal relation between Modi and his Pakistan counterpart Nawaz Sharif is “symptomatic” of the “diplomatic thaw” that has taken place, he said.

Pakistan’s major political parties like PPP, Tehreek-i-Insaf and Awami National Party also welcomed Modi’s surprise visit to Lahore, saying it was a “new beginning of relations” and will help improve ties between the two countries.

The mainstream American media lauded Modi’s visit saying it is likely to add momentum to a tentative reconciliation process between them. The CNN said it is a significant sign that the icy relationship between the two neighbours is thawing.

quoting analysts as saying that the possibility of the meeting was probably kept hidden till the last minute “to prevent irrational expectations and acrimony that often accompany such a diplomatic move”, the The Washington Post said Modi has “pressed the reset button on the blow-hot-blow-cold relationship” between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, paving the way for official dialogue to resume next month.

The Wall Street Journal said Modi’s surprise move is “likely to add momentum to a tentative reconciliation process” between the nuclear-armed neighbours, while The Chicago Tribune noted it as “potential sign of thawing” relations.

It is “the biggest surprise of all” of Modi’s diplomatic moves since he came to power on May 26, 2014 for which he had invited leaders of the South Asian countries, the Time magazine wrote.

“It’s the first trip to the country by an Indian head of state in a decade - and could be a sign of improving relations between the two neighbours,” the popular National Public Radio said.

According to The Los Angeles Times, with his Lahore visit Modi “breathed new life into a long troubled” relationship. And The New York Times, which quite often has been critical of the Prime Minister, while underscoring the significance of Modi’s impromptu trip to Lahore said the Indian leader in the past has moved from one policy to the other and described it as “a diplomatic dance”.

Twitter -- where the Prime Minister first informed the world about his visit to Lahore -- was abuzz with his decision to meet Sharif. All major American news outlets took to Twitter and other modes including SMS and emails to inform their readers about the breaking news from South Asia.

Even on a Christmas Day, a number of think-tank and academicians expressed their views about Modi’s Lahore visit on the social media.

South Asia expert Michael Kugelman of the Woodrow Wilson Center commented on Twitter: “Caveats about past history aside, no matter how you slice it, #ModiInLahore is a seminal and milestone moment for the Subcontinent. Bravo.”

In a series of tweets, Kugelman also noted: “Rather ironic (& political) that Congress Party lambasting #ModiInLahore. Took very different position on Pak, in 2011-12, when in power.”

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby ldev » 27 Dec 2015 21:28

shiv wrote:If you cannot say what pressure how do you say that there is pressure and it comes from the West? This seems to be your opinion and if so I respect it as your opinion, though I disagree. There is a constituency of people who see the American/western hand in anything that happens in the world - I don't think you are one but I don't see any specific western pressure to make pointless gestures that actually do not make the Pakistani army happy and take everyone off guard and in fact makes some people angry that they were not told or consulted.

Personally I think all that Modi has done is to make himself look good and has cornered both the opposition in India and the Pakis into a situation where he looks good no matter what happens now at least up until the next terrorist attack.



The emphasis of my post was captured in the first sentence:

I think Modi's Pakistan strategy is aimed at a wider audience.


A principal member of that wider audience is the US. The integrity of Pakistan is IMO of central importance to the US primarily because of the nuclear weapons that Pakistan possesses and that possession flows directly from US policy in the 1980s.

One of the primary fears in Pakistan from a military standpoint has been an Indian armoured thrust that will go all the way up to the Indus river and effectively cut Pakistan into 2. Their nuclear saber rattling from time to time is founded on this fear.

The crux of Modi’s policy appears to be to calm Pakistani fears of a large scale offensive Indian military ground operation. I think Parrikar’s comments sometime ago about the importance or lack thereof the Indian Army should be seen in this context.

That does not mean IMO that the Indian armed forces will be deprived of effective tools for defence as well as offensive special ops to combat terrorism. But the kind of arms acquisitions that India makes over the term of the Modi Government will provide clues about this strategy.

So in essence what Modi is signaling to the West is:

Our primary objective over the next several years is to develop our economy in peace. We have no designs on Pakistan or it’s territory and in fact we will welcome a genuine peace. Towards that end I and my Government will maintain open channels of communication including senior level face to face meetings with Pakistan. However inspite of that if India is still subject to cross border terrorism, it will not be because of any lack of working towards peace from our side.


So to come back to your point about US pressure. IMO the US concern and pressure is primarily about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into the hands of those who will use them against the US and its allies. That risk will be greatly enhanced in the event of a large scale India Pakistan war when Pakistan could start moving it’s nuclear weapons around. So Modi is signaling to the US, that India is not going to start a large scale war but will maintain contacts with Pakistan including at the highest level.

So the next issue is about Pakistan sponsored terrorism. I seriously doubt whether Modi believes that Pakistan based terrorism will ever end without Pakistan itself being destroyed as an entity. The news report about Kashmir being on the agenda is probably Modi exploring whether the status quo position will be acceptable as a permanent solution. And more important whether the Pakistan Army is on board with that solution and enforces it. That is IMO the minimum necessary for terrorism to end. And therefore I don’t think that these meetings with Sharif are about the hope for any real progress towards peace but rather a mechanism to signal India’s posture for the benefit of a wider audience. When the next large scale terrorist attack happens in India I suspect that these meetings will stop and depending on the SF capability that India has built up in the interim, there may even be some kind of retaliation. But India’s credentials as an actor working for peace with Pakistan will not take the kind of beating that it would have in past confrontations. That at least is what Modi is working towards IMO so that economic linkages with the West i.e. FDI, technology transfers etc. continue unscathed without the threat of sanctions etc.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby CRamS » 27 Dec 2015 21:32

Anantha wrote:CRamS +1
but why would NM play along on US requirements?
One answer is India gets to benefit from US high technology over time with at least a fake peace with TSP


Host of reasons. You mentioned high tech. Thats for sure. India's standing in the world in general. How many times have we seen Indian leaders beg US for permanent membership in UN security council. Look at the awe most of Indian middle class public has for US, so good PR from US does not hurt ModiJi domestically too.

While US pressure is the main has been a pivotal factor in our approach to TSP, there is self interest too. Once again, one does not need to be a rocket scientist to see that TSP continues to thumb its nose against India. I am sure India gave it back good especially under ModiJi/Doval combine, but the key is to force and prevent TSP from manufacturing a crisis and cry hoarse. India has not been able to achieve that. TSP can modulate its pigLeT machine at will. (And I need not add India's own traitors and 5th columnists who will only be too happy to see BJP and ModiJi embarrassed by TSP).

So as a pragmatic move, I see no harm in harnessing US to make sure TSP behaves, and at the same time, throw the equal equal dog bone to TSP (and that includes pretty much excusing TSP for all its past crimes including 26/11 in exchange for no hanky panky in the future). And thats exactly what ModiJi has done IMO.

At the end of the day, if India's core interests are preserved, I mean there is some Lakshman Rekha in place, economy grows, and develops some nationalist bone as it grows, I see it as statesmanship on ModiJi's part to swallow his ego and kiss up to TSP to try and achieve these objectives.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby shiv » 27 Dec 2015 21:33

One thing is pretty certain and I would be surprised if Doval and Modi don't know this. There is no way Pakistan can take any action whatsoever against Hafiz Saeed and Jamaat-ud dawa. That man and his organization are a powerful Pakistani Sunni Islamist political force in Punjab with Army and civilian support.

I hear a lot of talk - both from India and the US - which actually sound like helpless bleats to me asking Pakistan to take action against the perpetrators of 26/11 - but in Pakistan that cannot happen without Pakistan itself committing suicide. Years ago Pakistan itself indicated that if India considers Hafiz Saeed a criminal to be handed over to India, Pakistan considers Advani, Modui and others criminals to be handed over to Pakistan.

This business of "urging pakistan to take action against the culprits of 26/11" and asking about progress made in the trial are useless pursuits, but they seem to be crutches that are being used to engage a Pakistan that simply cannot be engaged. This is just one more reason why I (like many others) felt that we must not deal with Pakistan at all. Having said that it appears that there are interests that i am not considering - Sikhs and Indian Muslims with relatives across the border that possible compel the government to keep some form of contact open - for a South Indian like me there is no reason to keep contact with Pakistan - but I guess there are Indians who have a different view. Fair enough, but there will never ever be progress on 26/11 from Pakstan's side. That is a dead issue and we can deal with Pakistan only if we forget and forgive Pakistan for that action.

So, assuming that Modi is trying to pick up the threads that he botched by refusing talks and is doing a veiled downhill ski with Pakistan, exactly what do we gain? I say we gain nothing. we gain nothing by talking. We gain nothing by not talking either. The idea being suggested here is that we lose something from the US by not talking. In other words we are talking with Pakistan not because we will gain anything, but we are afraid of losing something that the US is going to give us and this fear was there for the MMS government and this fear has now clearly been installed into the Modi/Doval government and they will toe the US line simply out of fear (of something) and that there will be no benefits gained from talking to Pakistan.

However implausible this may seem - it is something taht we need to keep in mind. Certainly some people on the forum believe that to be the case. Why not?

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby CRamS » 27 Dec 2015 21:39

ldevJi, good points. But make no mistake, US will be pushing India to make some concessions to TSP on Kashmir. US position is status quo++, meaning some crap like joint sovereignty etc. I hope that is an absolute Lakshman Rekha that ModiJi will enforce unlike his predecessors MMS and Vajpayee who fell for some 4 point formala garbage.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby ldev » 27 Dec 2015 21:49

CRamS wrote: But make no mistake, US will be pushing India to make some concessions to TSP on Kashmir. US position is status quo++, meaning some crap like joint sovereignty etc. I hope that is an absolute Lakshman Rekha that ModiJi will enforce unlike his predecessors MMS and Vajpayee who fell for some 4 point formala garbage.


I think that political thought in India has progressed to the point (including from the Vajpayee days) that no Indian government (including a Modi Government) will be able to replace sole Indian sovereignty over Kashmir with joint sovereignty without being thrown out of power.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby shiv » 27 Dec 2015 21:50

ldev wrote:IMO the US concern and pressure is primarily about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into the hands of those who will use them against the US and its allies. That risk will be greatly enhanced in the event of a large scale India Pakistan war when Pakistan could start moving it’s nuclear weapons around. So Modi is signaling to the US, that India is not going to start a large scale war but will maintain contacts with Pakistan including at the highest level.

This is the theory that is quoted most often and I find it difficult to swallow every time it is repeated.

Modi and Parikker do not need to reassure the US that India will not attack Pakistan for two reasons
1. If India is amenable to US pressure their reassurances are redundant
2. If India is going to make war US satellites and Intelligence will definitely pick it up beforehand, cold start or no cold start. They may pick up false signals but they are always on the lookout and will know if India was going to make war.

i think the US knows full well that india is not going to declare war on Pakistan unless Pakistan conducts a massive terrorist attack. this much is clear and open from what the US has said.

Under the circumstances there are only two options open to the US. One is to try and urge Pakistan not to conduct a terrorist attack against India. Maybe they are doing this - but all my reading tells me that they are doing this by attempting to reduce Pakistan's fear of India by equipping Pakistan with some weapons as "legitimate defence against aggression". In other words the US assumes that Pakistan will listen to them and not attack India if they arm and fund Pakistan with weapons that include navigation, communication and nuclear delivery systems. Even if the US thinks these action will work on Pakistan there is no reason why India should be convinced of the US's good intentions unless Modi/Doval are stupid.

The other action that the US can take to to make sure that India is not in a position to threaten Pakistan even if Pakistan conducts a terrorist attack on India. But here again the US's actions are ambiguous. On the one hand they arm and fund Pakistan. on the other hand they arm India and pull India into a situation where we get all the nuclear fuel we want so we can build power stations and still have fissile material for bombs. This is no way of making Pakistan secure. It only makes Pakistan more insecure. In the meantime the US has expressed great confidence that Pakistani nukes are secure with PALs

So what is the exact reason for judging that the US is trying to stabilize Pakistan and prevent nuclear war which will cause Pakistani nukes to escape Pakistani army control.

If you ask my opinion the US has simply lost all control if it ever had any and simply does not know what to do. It is possible that the US is asking, or even begging India to try and help, bribing India with all the stuff we ever wanted to buy

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby shiv » 27 Dec 2015 21:57

Has the US ever managed to calm Pakistani fears about India? i would say never.

Has the US ever tried to calm Indian fears of Pakistan? No because the US believes that Pakistan needs to fear India and not vice versa

Can the US threaten and cajole India to take a less hawkish line against Pakistan? Good morning to all folks who just came online now, but the US has tried to coax and cajole India for many decades until 9-11. Sorry you missed all that

Is the US trying to? coax and cajole India to take a less hawkish line on Pakistan NOW? By giving India C-130s, P-8s, f 404s, Apaches, M777 and a nuclear deal? This is called coaxing and cajoling?

No. The US has now given up trying to force India and is asking India for cooperation in keeping Pakistan stable. That is as clear as a hot summer day in Chennai to me. They keep bribing Pakistan to try and keep the little influence they have there and are afraid the Chinses will get full control over Pakistan. That is why India is not being dictated to, but requeste to cooperate.
Last edited by shiv on 27 Dec 2015 21:58, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Gagan » 27 Dec 2015 21:58

Shivji
Disengagement is not an option with Pakistan for India.
They conduct terrorist strikes to get back in the attention circle.

This has been tried in the past.

By engagement this way, sometimes by making the LOC hot, then cold, we keep them engaged.
Keep displaying the sticks so that they pay for attempting terror strikes.
Keep things calm enough in India so that economic development goes unabated - Pakistan, short of an all out war can not hinder India's economic development.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby shiv » 27 Dec 2015 22:00

Gagan wrote:Shivji
Disengagement is not an option with Pakistan for India.

If disengagement is not an option, is engagement being done because the US is dictating terms? Or begging India to cooperate and providing sweeteners? Or simply because India wants engagement despite my objections?

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Gagan » 27 Dec 2015 22:03

The world wants India to tackle and solve or otherwise "control" this pakistan problem.

They want the entity of Pakistan contained.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Gagan » 27 Dec 2015 22:03

Now it is Af-Pak

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby ldev » 27 Dec 2015 22:05

shiv wrote:Is the US trying to? coax and cajole India to take a less hawkish line on Pakistan NOW? By giving India C-130s, P-8s, f 404s, Apaches, M777 and a nuclear deal? This is called coaxing and cajoling?

:) The US is trying to arm India as a counter weight to China and is arming Pakistan so that it feels secure against India. That is the short version. Of course to the extent India is paying for all the US weapons means good commercial business for companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin etc.

And Gagan is correct. Modi is walking a fine line between all out war and terrorism which will 99% continue. And that fine line is to ensure that India's economic development continues and linkages with the West stay open even if Pakistan cries:

nuclear flashpoint


when (not if) the next terrorist attack happens.
Last edited by ldev on 27 Dec 2015 22:06, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby A_Gupta » 27 Dec 2015 22:05

X-post from the Afghanistan thread:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=2930&start=3880#p1956555

PM Modi's speech in the Afghan Parliament; notice the dig at the Durand Line:

Indians remember the support of Afghans for our freedom struggle; the contribution of Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan, revered as Frontier Gandhi; and, the important footnote of that history, when, exactly hundred years ago, the first Indian Government-in-Exile was formed in Kabul by Maharaja Mahendra Pratap and Maulana Barkatullah.



Kind of implying that all Pashtuns are Afghans :)

PS: In case there is any doubt, Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan was born in Utmanzai, Charsadda.
Last edited by A_Gupta on 27 Dec 2015 22:21, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby milano » 27 Dec 2015 22:13

Shivji - You raise excellent points. I have no facts to back this up with, but I cannot believe that Modiji would go ahead with rapprochement and do a headspinning 180 deg turn without some level of assurance that Pakistan will be doing some kind of cleanup. For example, there are noises that Dawood Ibrahim is about to retire - could this be a way of signaling that they're assuaging India's concerns by putting enemy #2 out to pasture in a way that saves face for the Pak establishment? As for enemy #1, Hafiz Saeed's response to the latest upswing in relations has been fairly muted. Maybe these are signs that the Paks are starting to demonstrate verifiable sincerity. Perhaps we will see the 26/11 trial put on to a faster track and some degree of perceived justice will be demonstrated in a few months.

In terms of the theories of why the downhill ski-ing, I wonder if it's a combination of all/most of the various things being discussed in this forum over the last while, and not just pressure from the US (I personally can't think of what leverage the US would or could use on India in terms of withholding anything given that US seems to need India as a customer in these economic times). So maybe it's all/most of the following:

1. A stabilizing domestic situation in Pakistan due to apparent success of Operation Ass-e-Grab and investment via CPEC; India perhaps realizes it can't take advantage of an off-balance Pakistan
2. An Indian government losing the plot due to external and internal pressure piled on about "intolerance" - needing something dramatic/positive to divert attention from the domestic front
3. India dramatically upping the costs on the LOC and Pakistan finally feeling sufficient pain to straighten up
4. Some kind of proof provided by Pak to India that it is changing course (for real this time, really)

shiv wrote:One thing is pretty certain and I would be surprised if Doval and Modi don't know this. There is no way Pakistan can take any action whatsoever against Hafiz Saeed and Jamaat-ud dawa. ... I hear a lot of talk - both from India and the US - which actually sound like helpless bleats to me asking Pakistan to take action against the perpetrators of 26/11 - but in Pakistan that cannot happen without Pakistan itself committing suicide. ... but there will never ever be progress on 26/11 from Pakstan's side. That is a dead issue and we can deal with Pakistan only if we forget and forgive Pakistan for that action.

So, assuming that Modi is trying to pick up the threads that he botched by refusing talks and is doing a veiled downhill ski with Pakistan, exactly what do we gain? I say we gain nothing. we gain nothing by talking. We gain nothing by not talking either. The idea being suggested here is that we lose something from the US by not talking. In other words we are talking with Pakistan not because we will gain anything, but we are afraid of losing something that the US is going to give us and this fear was there for the MMS government and this fear has now clearly been installed into the Modi/Doval government and they will toe the US line simply out of fear (of something) and that there will be no benefits gained from talking to Pakistan.

However implausible this may seem - it is something taht we need to keep in mind. Certainly some people on the forum believe that to be the case. Why not?

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby A_Gupta » 27 Dec 2015 22:16

^^^ I repeat from above:
The transition in India is an expression of greater self-confidence. Its foreign policy dimension is to aspire to be a leading power, rather than just a balancing power.
PM Modi's actions have to be viewed in that context. India is not a "balance for China" etc. "Leading power" means actively shaping the world, whether it be the Global Climate talks, WTO talks, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and yes, even Pakistan.

Please absorb the message "leading power rather than just a balancing power". It is a different matter that the Indian instruments of power are still in nascent stages of development.

Yes, as a leading power, anything PM Modi does is, almost by definition, directed at a larger audience.

Please note the "greater self-confidence". This "taking actions under US pressure for rapprochement with Pakistan" is, IMO, from not understanding that.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Mihaylo » 27 Dec 2015 22:19

If anything, this PM is a strategist and abhors tactical brilliance with no strategic value. With this visit he shows himself as flexible, shows the government as tolerant, and shows India as a peace loving nation. I think he realizes that he has more wars to fight inside the borders than outside. He is simbly quieting some fronts so he can concentrate his resouces on what he thinks are the the more critical ones.

I don't believe we are changing anything on the ground. We will continue to pound them if they harass us. So, I don't agree to the theory of external pressure. If anything we have put pressure on external parties to convince Pukes to behave because this time I beleive that retribution will be swift and sure unlike the peace loving Orator and dithering mumbling Beuracrat

-M

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby ldev » 27 Dec 2015 22:22

A_Gupta wrote: PM Modi's actions have to be viewed in that context. India is not a "balance for China" etc. "Leading power" means actively shaping the world, whether it be the Global Climate talks, WTO talks, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and yes, even Pakistan.


The primary prerequisite of a great power is to have a quiet neighborhood. Great progress has been made by Modi in a short time span in Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh. Nepal is a bit of a mess. Pakistan is the unsolved problem.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby shiv » 27 Dec 2015 22:24

ldev wrote: :) The US is trying to arm India as a counter weight to China and is arming Pakistan so that it feels secure against India. That is the short version. Of course to the extent India is paying for all the US weapons means good commercial business for companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin etc.

With respect ldev this is the third example of cooking up a new rationale for US actions to explain something that could not be explained by the previous explanation.

On this thread alone we started with the idea that the US's main work is in the Middle East and they do not want any trouble on the Pakistan side and hence they are pressuring India to keep off Pakistan and not be hostile.

This explanation was insufficient and needed to be buttressed by the argument that Pakistani nuclear weapons are the headache which is the real reason why India must be asked to reassure Pakistan and keep off Pakistan.

But India cannot reassure Pakistan with dangerous US supplied weapons so the argument offered is that US weapons to India are aimed at China and that India can be trusted to only hit China with them and not Pakistan, just like Pakistan could be trusted to hit the Soviets alone in the 80s and the Taliban alone now with their F-16s and AMRAAMs. Even if you believe this I doubt if Pakistan does.

The US does not have too many things under its control. China is openly hostile. Pakistan is less openly hostile but continues to be uncooperative. India is the only stabilizing force they have that is willing to give the US conditional cooperation. The US looks to India for cooperation and not as a gulaam. The US is looking to India to help them out in a situation over which they have little control. That is what it looks like to me.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby shiv » 27 Dec 2015 22:30

A_Gupta wrote:Please absorb the message "leading power rather than just a balancing power". It is a different matter that the Indian instruments of power are still in nascent stages of development.

Absorbing that message can occur only after being willing to temporarily block from one's mind the idea that India is constantly dancing to a tune played by the US. As long as that thought remains current, it is not possible to think of any other scenario. This belief is, in my view, a great and unfortunately inaccurate impression carried by too many Indians.

Of course the same belief also exists among other nations when even the US's enemies blame the US for things that the US is unlikely to have done - like 9-11. But that is the soft power that the US wields.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby TSJones » 27 Dec 2015 22:33

or maybe we would like to see a stable relationship between two nuclear armed states?

don't make us issue another traveler advisory....
Last edited by TSJones on 27 Dec 2015 22:35, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby ldev » 27 Dec 2015 22:35

shiv wrote:The US does not have too many things under its control. China is openly hostile. Pakistan is less openly hostile but continues to be uncooperative. India is the only stabilizing force they have that is willing to give the US conditional cooperation. The US looks to India for cooperation and not as a gulaam. The US is looking to India to help them out in a situation over which they have little control. That is what it looks like to me.


Any government that has dealt with the US Government knows that:

The Executive i.e. President may be able to deliver something

which

the Legislative i.e. Congress can block

which the bureaucracy i.e State Department

can muddy up completely.


The only countries where all 3 can agree are only those countries which can impact the US for its national security or it's economy. Today only Russia and China fit that bill.

The balance of power between India and the US clearly lies with the US. So whether and if so which section of the US Government has approached India to help, as you suggest, is open to question. Modi's action IMO as already stated are a signal to the US that India will not take actions vs Pakistan that will jeopardize US interests. Nothing more than that. To what extent Modi's action are 100% his own volition vs 100% as a result of US pressure or some combination of the two will be entirely subjective and there will be as many opinions as there are digits between 0 and 100. But what is in no doubt is that the US is a primary recipient of Modi's signals.

And the primary reason for this signalling IMO is to ensure that India's economic development is not constrained/hampered due to the Pakistan relationship.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby member_22733 » 27 Dec 2015 22:45

I agree with TSJ and partially ldev.

One of the few things that the US can do, tangibly, is to advice its citizens to avoid travelling in heathen-lands and IT headquarters (T for terrorism).

The US in the meanwhile can also put pressure on India, as it has done every other time, including countless climate agreements or trying to get us to sign CTBT, trying to get us to talk right after 26/11, trying to prevent op-parakram blockade (partial success in that case), trying to prevent the prevention of genocide in Bangladesh, sanctions after the Smiling Buddha.

The US can try all it wants. Its "track record" should remove any illusions of its efficacy.


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