Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2015

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Falijee » 28 Dec 2015 19:10

Paki Quest For = = Succeeds? :roll:
Nuclear Security Summit: Obama invites Nawaz, Modi to Washington moot
With a surprise stopover piquing the interest of the world, thoughts are already turning towards when Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi would meet again to carry on the latest wave of rapprochement. The wait may not be as long as anticipated with a meeting expected late March in the power centre of the world, Washington.
Nawaz, Modi meeting has ‘underlying conflict of interest’: Imran
The heads of government of the two nuclear states have been invited by US President Barack Obama to attend the Nuclear Security Summit from March 31-April 1, 2016.

Will Ganja be reading from a prepared script, ably assisted by the clever brother, just wondering :mrgreen:
For Nawaz and Modi, the conference would offer the first planned opportunity of 2016 to carry forward bilateral ties which have seen some icy lows and relative heights this year. After a series of surprise meetings between officials of the two countries, Modi’s surprise visit to Lahore on Friday, the first by an Indian premier to Pakistan in over a decade, signalled a further improvement in ties. It also afforded both sides to agree on a meeting between their respective foreign secretaries in mid-January to restart talks.

What is the role of the Bad Sharif in all of this? Is the Pak fauj again be the spoiler?

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Gagan » 28 Dec 2015 19:13

ISIS is clever.
It is present in Af-Pak for recruitment for fighters for cannon fodder in Iraq-Syria.
They are not waving the black flags in Af-Pak, because doing so will cause browning of the pants ceremony in the pak fauj and media in pakistan.
The areas, where they are waving these black flags, authorities are coming down with a sledgehammer.

So they are present and actively recruiting, just not displaying their black flags.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby chetak » 28 Dec 2015 19:19

habal wrote:few facts:

raheel sharif is due for extension/retirement next year. extension needs good sharif's blessings.

pakistan is out of saudi orbit and USA is not what it used to be.

china corridor is pakistan's trump card these days and pakistan can't resist chinese + russian leverage.

Modi's visit to russia coinciding with pakistan drive-by may be important because of Modi's condition to Russia-China on adopting their currency basket could be normalization of relation with pakistan. Or it could be vice-versa.

pakistan is in dire straits economically.


RS doesn't need anyone's blessings, others need his. He has the cell keys and also knows where the rope for the noose is kept. :)

NS is painfully aware of this and it is the amrekis who will finally deal from the stacked afghan deck.

for the common abdul, RS will "legally" inveigle an extension in a such a way that it appears in public that NS begged him to stay on to protect the quam as islam was in danger

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby member_23692 » 28 Dec 2015 19:47

Philip wrote:Our PM is a cunning gent! He is being underestimated like Gandhi was.



Exactly. Just when everyone was thought how different Modiji is from Gandhi, he pulls a Gandhi.....albeit, a combination of MK Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi......vis-a-vis Paki.......all in one decisive, triumphant stop in Lahore. Take this PAki........we even sent a 100 people without visa into Paki for a full 8 hours......and......and.......Paki could not do anything.

What brilliance! How amazing !

I am standing with Modiji on this one.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby CRamS » 28 Dec 2015 19:50

A_Gupta wrote:It is not "India is dancing to US tune". Rather, India is supportive of the international order, i.e., it will not use radical means to up-end the existing international order; it will "work within the system".



With all due respect, this is as pedantic as your claim of "law" Vs "policy" on Kirket. Its like telling someone how to build a clock when asked what time it is.

Why the hell should India be supportive of any international order that is inimical to its interests? Unless it has no chocie, or makes the best out of challenges it cannot surmount?

Any just international order would have made TSP a pariah state (like Iran has been for far lesser crimes than TSP) for its crimes against humanity, starting with Bangladesh genocide, and continuing on to this day with its medieval barbarism against India, Baluchistan and Afghanistan. But it is this US-led "international order" (read US empire and that includes its western lackeys) that has resurrected and maintained this terrorist criminal abomination.

Thus, given India's inability to bring TSP to justice on its own, and given its own dependence on the "international order" for development, investment, high-tech, entry into the big club itself etc, India, even under a ModiJi-led nationalist govt, had to do some down hill skiing as a pragmatic maneuver to keep the big boys happy. Now, to re-iterae my own view, I see this as statesmanship on part of ModiJi, but one must keep the compulsions and constraints that he acted under to get a holistic picture of all the challenges India is confronted with in dealing with TSP.


A radical method of changing the world order, would be, e.g., to proliferate nuclear weapons. Or to support "non-state actors" a.k.a. international terrorists. Thus, while not a ratifier of NPT or CTBT, India will not gratuitously violate these. Leading power or balancing power, even PM Modi's India is a "status quo" power, not a "revisionist" power.



Consistency is not the hall mark of a super power like US. Sure, in the case of TSP, brazen criminal behavior like proliferating nukes and terrorism is excused and welcomed as a revisionist power, but its precisely because the "international order" allowed it to do so. That does not mean that had a Hindu-nationalist India did the same, it would be treated as a "revisionist power". Had India, especially under a "Hindu nationalist" govt done that, I would wager to bet that India would have been demonized and treated as a pariah by the very same "international order" (and there enough traitors and 5th columnists in India that would make this task that much more easier). Heck, even for trivial communal excesses, India is badgered by the "international order".

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Avinash R » 28 Dec 2015 20:16

‘Kissing’ Pakistani soil ‘soaked’ in Indian blood will prove ‘costly’: Shiv Sena to PM Modi
The criticism by Shiv Sena, which shares power with BJP both at the Centre and in Maharashtra, follows a strident attack on Modi by opposition Congress.
By: PTI
Mumbai
Published:Dec 28, 2015, 17:05

“Kissing” Pakistani soil “soaked” in Indian blood will prove “costly”, Shiv Sena said on Monday as it reminded Prime Minister Narendra Modi of how trying to get “too close” to that country led to decline in political graph of BJP veterans like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and L K Advani.

“What needs to be remembered is that there is an orthodox belief that in the past, no politician who has tried to get too close to Pakistan has been able to remain in politics for long.

“L K Advani once went to the tomb of (Muhammed Ali) Jinnah and praised him. After that his political graph started declining and today he has been sidelined,” the Sena said in an editorial in party mouthpiece ‘Saamana’.”

Shiv Sena, the BJP’s oldest ideological partner, also recalled former Prime Minister Vajpayee’s Lahore visit and his talks which Pakistan’s ex-dictator Pervez Musharraf in Agra to emphasise on how the two engagements did him little good.

“(A.B ) Vajpayee, in a bid to mend the strained relations between the two countries started the ‘Lahore bus’ service and also went out of his way to meet General (Pervez) Musharraf in Agra. After that never did a BJP government come to power under the leadership of Vajpayee,” it said.

It also wanted to know how would have BJP reacted if a Congress Prime Minister made an unannounced stopover in Pakistan.

“The whole country is asking if BJP would have similarly welcomed a Congress PM’s unannounced stopover in Lahore like they did Modi’s. Pakistan’s soil is cursed and kissing it would prove to be costly because it is soaked in the blood of lakhs of innocent Indians,” the party said in the editorial.

The criticism by Shiv Sena, which shares power with BJP both at the Centre and in Maharashtra, follows a strident attack on Modi by opposition Congress.

The pro-Hindutva party has been critical of Modi on several issues, including his comments terming the Dadri lynching and cancellation of Pakistani singer Ghulam Ali’s concert in Mumbai following protests by the Sena as “unfortunate”. It had also targeted Modi for extending a one billion USD line of credit to Mongolia when Maharashtra faced drought and farmers were committing suicide.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Mihaylo » 28 Dec 2015 20:23

GunterH wrote:In my humble opinion the Modi landing in Lawhore can be summarized as below.


- 200+ entourage (including ModiJi) using pakistan in pakistan may be the real reason.



:rotfl: You bet. especially true if the famed "toilets are never working in Air India" thing happened.

-M

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Gagan » 28 Dec 2015 20:46

This bit of conversation on the way to Raiwind on Nawaz's Helo.

Modi: Lahore looks very pretty
Doval: I've seen this town so many times...

:mrgreen:
Last edited by Gagan on 28 Dec 2015 21:20, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Abhay_S » 28 Dec 2015 21:06

The boyzes

http://nation.com.pk/columns/27-Dec-2015/the-boyzes

It is now time to bring some further nuance to analysis of Pakistan’s politics, foreign and security policies, and the civil-military paradigm under which it is normally scrutinized. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Lahore, if analyzed carefully, will crystalise what everyone has been missing about the civil-military tug of war.

Everytime a Pakistani civilian government is cut down to size, hits a hurdle in taking forward its security or foreign policies, or is destabilized, the powerful military establishment, known as the boyzes, is seen as the player to have done it. The military establishment is generally seen as a disciplined monolithic institution that acts as one. Not so.

Informed by two incidents of the past, I can be certain that the controversy around Mr. Modi’s visit to Lahore on Friday is evidence the military does not always act as one. Considering at first the Bangkok summit between the National Security Advisors of India and Pakistan, then the Heart of Asia conference and resumption of peace initiative with both India and Afghanistan, and now Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Pakistan, it is obvious as noonday sun that Pakistan’s military chief General Raheel Sharif is completely supportive of making peace with the two neighbours. It is clear that Gen Sharif is in partnership with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to normalize relationships with the neighbours and help bring prosperity to the country. He is also actively supporting the economic corridor with China, and committing troops in Balochistan to provide security for the incoming investment. He is also supporting the political settlement in Balochistan to this and other ends, to end the insurgency in Balochistan.

Yet one sees journalists, television anchors and social media accounts associated with the ‘boyzes’ trying to run a spoke in the wheel, and denigrating Prime Minister Modi’s Christmas day visit. This had a senior journalist clearly puzzled, which speaks volumes for the fact that generally the military’s aims, policies and actions thought of as unanimous. Clearly, that is not the case. The military’s premier agency has demonstrated in the past that it has a mind and agenda of its own, and will cross the powerful military chief in its own ways. And this is what explains tweets from ‘senior journalists’ such as: “Strong earthquake in Kabul and Islamabad. India’s PM Modi was in both places today. He’s famously known to jinx his hosts”, “(to Modi) Sorry, bro. But the only thing we are celebrating today is the birthday of the Quaid. Hope you liked the pakoras” and “Narendra Modi let whole of Pakistan dance into a ‘simple harmonic motion’ leading to worst earthquake; God this was literally hell”; it also explains further bile from other ‘senior television anchors’ opposing any peace overtures towards India. These ‘journalists’ continue to be the master’s voice. Since the military has traditionally used the ISI to control electronic media, the ISI is able to get away with its own agenda, even when it runs counter to the military chief’s.

To illustrate this assertion with facts from the past, the hawaldar media (military controlled journalists and anchors) first egged the then military dictator General Pervez Musharraf to clean up the Laal Masjid, after its khateeb established a parallel government in Islamabad in 2007. After operation cleanup, the same anchors began to call for Musharraf’s blood, calling the killed militants ‘innocent girls’ and ‘innocent kids’. The switch was stunning. But guess who were the media handlers? The ISI. It was headed by General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani at the time (who went on to inherit the mantle of military chief after Gen Musharraf’s fall). One anchor is on record as having said, ‘we were told to keep Mush tight on spot.’ And there you have evidence of the ISI working against the military chief.

The second episode that bears testimony to my assertion also relates to the same year: the military chief and dictator General Musharraf was encouraged by the then ISI head General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani in 2007 to go after the then Chief Justice of the Country, CJ Iftikhar Chaudhry. On the other hand, General Kayani assured Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry of his support and to dig in his heels against the military dictator. Helped by other factors, he achieved his aim and Musharraf quit his uniform and Kayani was sworn in in November of 2007 as the army chief.

Kayani left the ISI in the hands of his own man, General Shuja Pasha, who later left it in the hands of his own man, General Zaheer ul Islam, in 2012. Now fast forward to 2014 and Mr. Imran Khan’s sit ins. Once again these were supported by the ISI, and the government was at the brink of collapse. Here too, it is public knowledge that the military chief and the ISI were not on the same page. But Gen Sharif could not risk a coup from within coming out to bat for PM Sharif too publicly or too strongly. The government only stabilized after the ISI coterie of five generals retired from service and Imran Khan was left dangling on his container. He was ordered off the container after the Army Public School attack and he obediently heeled once he knew his support was gone.

It is no wonder then, that now despite General Raheel Sharif’s support of the peace processes, the ‘hawaldar media’ is denigrating it. But lest anyone confuse the whole thing again, let it be clear that it looks like a repeat of the ISI running its own agenda as opposed to the army chief’s.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby ramana » 28 Dec 2015 22:02

BO fishing in troubled waters and trying to take credit where none is due.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby A_Gupta » 28 Dec 2015 23:11

CRamS wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:It is not "India is dancing to US tune". Rather, India is supportive of the international order, i.e., it will not use radical means to up-end the existing international order; it will "work within the system".



With all due respect, this is as pedantic as your claim of "law" Vs "policy" on Kirket. Its like telling someone how to build a clock when asked what time it is.

Why the hell should India be supportive of any international order that is inimical to its interests? Unless it has no chocie, or makes the best out of challenges it cannot surmount?


Do you understand the difference between process and outcome?

India will use the standard processes to achieve the outcomes it desires.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby KLNMurthy » 28 Dec 2015 23:56

This paki gets it basically right on the "visit".

http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/84626-B ... -diplomacy

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby CRamS » 29 Dec 2015 03:01

A_Gupta wrote:
Do you understand the difference between process and outcome?

India will use the standard processes to achieve the outcomes it desires.


Yes I do and I agree. I will only paraphrase what you say as follows: "India will use the standard processes to achieve the outcomes it desires and hopes it will succeed". And to re-iterate, I welcome this in the absence of better options. And full marks to ModiJi for trying.

But remember, in a game situation like this, TSP is no slouch, and they will also use standard processes to achieve the outcomes they desire and hope to succeed. Any I assume you agree that "standard processes" involve harnessing the power of big boys like US and the institutional mechanisms they have created for which they are the judge, jury, and witnesses. If so, then IMO, TSP has a decisive edge over India, given the big boys' ambivalence about a rising Hindu-dominated India. Not to mention India's own fault lines.

Not the topic of this thread, but an innocuous, heart-felt, benign remark by a BJP govt official on cultural and economic unity of India, TSP, and Bangladesh is interpreted both domestically and internationally as "Modi flirting with fascism". So you can imagine what ModiJi is up against in his attempt to use "standard processes" to India's benefit, and the price the torch bearers of "standard processes" will attempt to extract from India. We should be wary of that.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Dec 2015 03:55

Any I assume you agree that "standard processes" involve harnessing the power of big boys like US and the institutional mechanisms they have created for which they are the judge, jury, and witnesses.


No. India plans to become one of the "big boys". That consists of cooperation and competition with the current "big boys", as well as setting up its own power centers.

The point is that India is not a revisionist state. Quoting from a random paper

A revisionist power would ...be described as a state primarily concerned with its own power and prestige above all other considerations, seeking to remodel the international system and order for its own benefit and in its own interests.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby SSridhar » 29 Dec 2015 04:41

KLNMurthy wrote:This paki gets it basically right on the "visit".

http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/84626-B ... -diplomacy

KLNM, true. But some parts are right and some are wrong too.

Right
  • The turnaround in New Delhi’s attitude to Islamabad is being labelled many things, from a volte-face to a costly climb-down. Both assessments are off the mark.
  • The fallback solution: raise Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s own personal stakes in the peace process to the extent that Pakistan feels compelled, if not coerced, to move against anti-India spoilers.
  • if the relationship were to take a hit now, à la a Kargil or Mumbai-II, policymakers in India will be well placed to spread their palms and say ‘We tried.’
  • play the Roosevelt card of talking softly but carrying a big stick, while quietly pushing the onus for relationship insurance onto Islamabad and Rawalpindi.
  • scepticism harboured by Indian interlocutors, who eight years on refuse to be fully convinced of Pakistan’s democratic coming-of-age.
  • The push for engagement over estrangement with Islamabad has just as much to do with the unfolding situation in Afghanistan, and how India views road access to Kabul as an aspirational strategic good. New Delhi is increasingly driven by the bigger regional dynamic: trade access to central Asia, transit through KP and Punjab, permission for Afghan trucks to reach Attari, and Central Asian gas via TAPI.
  • India quite possibly hankers for NDMA more than it lets on, if only because ratification of this long-stalled trade agreement could potentially open up the floodgates of Central Asian economic and revenue advantages, and help operationalise the Indo-Afghan Strategic Partnership Agreement.
  • But going forward, it will be important to keep policy stakeholders, opposition leaders and democrats in both parliaments debriefed and on board when it comes to debating important foreign policy decisions.
  • the hard work begins after the first handshake

Wrong
  • Prime Minister Modi has wanted to engage with Pakistan from the get-go, but was constrained by both party policy as well as the bar of disengagement set by the UPA administration.{It was not BJP or UPA, it was the set of events that took place. Modi drew new redlines using these events}
  • The BJP foreign policy team led by EAM Swaraj and Foreign Secretary Jaishankar seems to have, not inaccurately, assessed that talking tough to Pakistan has failed to deliver as a strategy in any meaningful way.{Absolutely wrong, IMHO. The Modi approach is talks are on so long as Pakistan behaves and sticks to agreements made. Retaliation would be swift and disproportionate if there are violations}
  • The BJP thus realised that a narrow window for reconciliation, that has been open in Islamabad since 2005, could be in danger of shutting altogether, before the Modi government could reach the middle of its first term. {How can a 'window' be termed narrow when it has supposedly been open for 10 long years?}
  • a revamped Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue framework is likely to be on trade and transit, not on terrorism or territory.{This author thinks that Modi would compromise on terror so long as trade & transit happen. That is simply and totally incorrect and a costly assumption to make by the Pakistanis especially PA/ISI}

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Muppalla » 29 Dec 2015 04:49

KLNMurthy wrote:This paki gets it basically right on the "visit".

http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/84626-B ... -diplomacy


Really good one except for few lines here and there. In all Pak papers there is one line that is wrong. Modi has pressures from RSS and some Right Wing to not talk to Pak. India definitely (Modi or MMS) does not have such pressures. MMS met at Sharm lea shaik despite of huge uproar (that was a disaster anyway). Modi also has no pressure to not meet Pakis.

This article tells that Paki elite is realizing that India and Pakistan are not going to have any more civilizational relations but it will be economics and trade. Everything else will have to be shelved.

India's relations with its other neighbors will be different from one with Pakistan. No more same blood, same food and same DNA etc. It is about trade, transit onlee. On that aspect a good one. Now that the onus to respond on those lines is purely on Pakistan and its handlers. USA badly needs a stable regime in Afghanistan with a big brother like India and a Pakistan not spoiling the effort.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Muppalla » 29 Dec 2015 04:50

SSridhar ji has written more comprehensively.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby CRamS » 29 Dec 2015 04:51

SSJi, your last point is an extremely important one. TSP slime-balls are trying to institutionalize the dialogue process whereby their terror continues, and will be used to bargain territory (valley). And they have made the compromise that they will discuss trade and transit in the interim which suits them fine given the dire situation they are in. Sadly, this line of thinking is endorsed by Congoons and 3.5. Thats the key difference between BJP and UPA.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby KLNMurthy » 29 Dec 2015 05:07

SSridhar, thanks for elaborating the Fahd Humayun (of Jinnah Institute--what is it?) article. Your right-wrong breakdown is spot on.

The wrongs list highlights the mental barriers that both the best-of-breed RAPEs and the DIEs have when it comes to understanding India.

As to item 3 on the wrongs list (10 year window closing) I am guessing that the pakithink on the subject is that once CPEC comes and iron brother gives billions, they will have no need to reconcile with India, no w and forever.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby SSridhar » 29 Dec 2015 05:25

KLNMurthy wrote:As to item 3 on the wrongs list (10 year window closing) I am guessing that the pakithink on the subject is that once CPEC comes and iron brother gives billions, they will have no need to reconcile with India, now and forever.

That's tactical brilliance. In any case, it will be not less than a decade before a critical mass part of the CPEC happens, if at all. I say 'if at all' because there are caveats. China should not meltdown in the meanwhile, Pakistan should continue to exist, the subnationalists do not sabotage CPEC etc.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Muppalla » 29 Dec 2015 06:02

The headstrongness does not go down that easily in the language. But the articles emanating from Paki press can be considered a sea change. Vastly getting away from regular rhetoric. This makes one wonder (with extreme caution), the Pak Army is being slowly being controlled by Uncle to accommodate an Indian role in Af-Pak as a desperate measure to get out. The tactical brilliance of Pakis may be controlled with a post-Armitage doctrine. As we all know that Uncle is a big player and it may be no more a check point game of Pak against India and India against China etc. If this mindset change is true then there may be a slow change. H&D, borders will be on a pause for indefinite period.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby shiv » 29 Dec 2015 06:46

This was the last infiltration attempt that I could find - Dec 3rd 2015
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/3-terror ... ir-1250749

From Nov 29th 2015
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/3-terror ... ir-1250749
Srinagar/New Delhi: A high alert has been sounded along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir as infiltration from across the border has seen a sudden spurt. Terror groups including banned Lashker-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) believed to have sent nearly 20-25 cadres in the last 10 weeks.

The terror activities in Kupwara district over the last eight weeks are suggesting that infiltration from Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK) has increased and these terror groups want to set up base in North Kashmir where the presence has been weak of both the Pakistan-based terror outfits, official sources said today.

A thorough analysis of intelligence inputs gathered from various agencies indicate that nearly 25 terrorists may have entered into the higher reaches of Kupwara and were trying to find their way into Kashmir, the sources said.

The encounter in Manigah forests located on the heights of Kupwara, which has entered into fourth week now, has seen intermittent exchanges of fire between terrorists and army.

It is estimated that nearly 10 LeT terrorists had crossed Shamsabari range along the Line of Control before moving into Manigah forests and taking refugee in 'Dhoks' (temporary accommodation) of nomads before merging with the locals.


From Nov 3rd 2015
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/ceasefir ... my-1239667
Srinagar: The Army today said the ceasefire violation along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, which left two soldiers dead, was a part of the terrorists' plan to infiltrate into the Valley before the natural passes are closed by snowfall.

"It (ceasefire violation) seems to be an attempt to infiltrate more terrorists before the snowfall along the LoC," General Officer Commanding of the Army's 15 Corps Lt Gen SK Dua told reporters here.

He said there were intelligence inputs that around 300 terrorists were waiting for an opportunity to infiltrate at various launchpads on the other side of the LoC.

"There is increased pressure on them to infiltrate before the winter. Sometimes they just cross the LoC, open fire and then go back," the army officer said.

He said the infiltration from across the LoC was "next to nil" this year so far and the anti-infiltration grid was fully prepared to keep it that way.


October 28th 2015
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bsf-warn ... ce-1237110
Jammu: In the wake of renewed ceasefire violations, the Border Security Force has warned Pakistani armed forces against undertaking any "misadventure", saying India has "zero tolerance" towards infiltration and cross-border firing, particularly that targets the civilian population.

The blunt message was conveyed by BSF to Pakistan Rangers during a Flag Meeting while lodging a strong protest over its "unprovoked" cross-border firing which killed one civilian and injured 14 in Jammu and Kashmir in the past few days.


Oct 14th 2015
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/soldier- ... ir-1232260
Jammu: An army soldier and an intruding terrorist were killed on Wednesday when troops foiled an infiltration bid on the Line of Control (LoC) in Poonch district of Jammu and Kashmir.


Sept 22 2015
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/over-1-0 ... ys-1220514
Srinagar: More than a 1,000 terrorists, trained in 17 training camps across Pakistan, have been attempting to cross over into India through the border in Jammu and Kashmir but a tightened counter-infiltration effort has resulted in many of their bids being foiled and driving them to desperate measures, the top Army officer in Kashmir Valley has told NDTV.

In an exclusive interview, Lieutenant General Satish Dua, the General Officer Commanding of the Army's 15 Corps said that there are 23 launching pads in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir for pushing over 300 terrorists into the Kashmir valley.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby shiv » 29 Dec 2015 06:59

Modi met Nawaz Sharif in Russia on July 7th 2015
Modi met Nawaz again in Paris on 30th November 2015

The Doval meeting with Army shitlander in Bangkok was reported Dec 7th 2015
Sushma Swarajs Heart of Asia meet in Pakistan was reported on Dec 9th
Modi met Nawaz Sharif in Lahore on Dec 25th 2015

Kashmir violence statistics:
http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries ... alties.htm
1. June to October were the worst - but that is normal because the infiltration routes are open in summer
2. 2015 was not much different from 2014 or 2013

So what has changed?

Infiltration attempts have not changed. Meetings with Pakistan have never stopped.

Only - there have been more inconclusive but very widely reported "summits"

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby shiv » 29 Dec 2015 08:31

I would be very surprised if one was to look inside Modi's mind and find hope that Pakistanis will change their colours soon. With a man like Doval advising him and Modi being pretty up to date about what Islamism does in India and abroad - suspect that Modi has other motivations.

I think trade via Pakistan into Afghanistan is one thing he probably hopes to conclude. To repeat what I suggested earlier - Modi has also insulated himself against any Pakistani (or Paki friendly Congress) accusation that he is somehow anti-Pakistan by nature. In Indian secular minds Pakistan=Muslim=Indian Muslim. So anti-Pakistan is anti-Muslim in Congress vocabulary. That accusation cannot stick now.

Pakistan is very much a bilateral issue. Relations with Pakistan are a very important domestic issue and imagining that Modi is doing something for the international audience is IMO incorrect. Of course the international audience is watching - being fed by Indian media, presstitutes and India Opposition parties of the ilk who write to the US President to deny Modi a visa. That is so shameful - but if Congress genuflects before America it does not mean that Modi is doing drama for a western audience. Doing the drama for an Indian audience has more far reaching implications for the BJP and India.

I think we need to remember that people in every country first think of how events affect them rather than how those events are seen by other nations. Modi is a leader who has always played for the home team - as far as I can tell. But home team is India first and BJP next.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Baikul » 29 Dec 2015 09:02

shiv wrote:Modi met Nawaz Sharif in Russia on July 7th 2015
Modi met Nawaz again in Paris on 30th November 2015

The Doval meeting with Army shitlander in Bangkok was reported Dec 7th 2015
Sushma Swarajs Heart of Asia meet in Pakistan was reported on Dec 9th
Modi met Nawaz Sharif in Lahore on Dec 25th 2015

Kashmir violence statistics:
http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries ... alties.htm
1. June to October were the worst - but that is normal because the infiltration routes are open in summer
2. 2015 was not much different from 2014 or 2013

So what has changed?

Infiltration attempts have not changed. Meetings with Pakistan have never stopped.

Only - there have been more inconclusive but very widely reported "summits"


Thank you for that and bringing back data to go alongside other interpretations.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby milano » 29 Dec 2015 09:13

shiv wrote:I would be very surprised if one was to look inside Modi's mind and find hope that Pakistanis will change their colours soon. With a man like Doval advising him and Modi being pretty up to date about what Islamism does in India and abroad - suspect that Modi has other motivations.

I think trade via Pakistan into Afghanistan is one thing he probably hopes to conclude. To repeat what I suggested earlier - Modi has also insulated himself against any Pakistani (or Paki friendly Congress) accusation that he is somehow anti-Pakistan by nature. In Indian secular minds Pakistan=Muslim=Indian Muslim. So anti-Pakistan is anti-Muslim in Congress vocabulary. That accusation cannot stick now.

Pakistan is very much a bilateral issue. Relations with Pakistan are a very important domestic issue and imagining that Modi is doing something for the international audience is IMO incorrect. Of course the international audience is watching - being fed by Indian media, presstitutes and India Opposition parties of the ilk who write to the US President to deny Modi a visa. That is so shameful - but if Congress genuflects before America it does not mean that Modi is doing drama for a western audience. Doing the drama for an Indian audience has more far reaching implications for the BJP and India.

I think we need to remember that people in every country first think of how events affect them rather than how those events are seen by other nations. Modi is a leader who has always played for the home team - as far as I can tell. But home team is India first and BJP next.


Shivji - you're on to something here. With this post and your response to my post on the previous page, if I understood you correctly, the Modi government is engaging Pakistan, but it would appear on terms more favorable to us and not for internal/external pressure reasons but for other goals that are not easily apparent. I had not considered that Pakistan (all major power centres therein) realize they need engagement with us, as "terror" and instability are a 2 way street and have done real damage; so now, despite their (all of them) inbred hatred for India, they realize the costs to them have escalated. So perhaps the deniable coercive actions we've been taking have started to pay off. Why I hadn't considered this before was I was biased in terms of assuming that the damage done to our capabilities to do covert damage in Pakistan starting from Gujral onwards had rendered these types of options useless, and that one cannot spin up these capabilities in a matter of a year. I had thought that the sh*t-kicking on the LOC was the only stick we finally started brandishing. Some other posters have also provided good ideas on what our governments strategic motivations may be (not due to the hackneyed tactical nukes or CPEC).

I do agree with the general thinking from a number of folks that the optics are awesome for India, and that there's no real downside - heads, we win, and tails we win too. And indeed, let's wait and see what the mean time between attacks or infil attempts shapes up to be.

I really appreciate all the great analysis and opening up other lines of thought.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby svinayak » 29 Dec 2015 10:51

shiv wrote:I would be very surprised if one was to look inside Modi's mind and find hope that Pakistanis will change their colours soon. With a man like Doval advising him and Modi being pretty up to date about what Islamism does in India and abroad - suspect that Modi has other motivations.

I think trade via Pakistan into Afghanistan is one thing he probably hopes to conclude. To repeat what I suggested earlier - Modi has also insulated himself against any Pakistani (or Paki friendly Congress) accusation that he is somehow anti-Pakistan by nature. In Indian secular minds Pakistan=Muslim=Indian Muslim. So anti-Pakistan is anti-Muslim in Congress vocabulary. That accusation cannot stick now.

Pakistan is very much a bilateral issue. Relations with Pakistan are a very important domestic issue and imagining that Modi is doing something for the international audience is IMO incorrect. Of course the international audience is watching - being fed by Indian media, presstitutes and India Opposition parties of the ilk who write to the US President to deny Modi a visa. That is so shameful - but if Congress genuflects before America it does not mean that Modi is doing drama for a western audience. Doing the drama for an Indian audience has more far reaching implications for the BJP and India.

I think we need to remember that people in every country first think of how events affect them rather than how those events are seen by other nations. Modi is a leader who has always played for the home team - as far as I can tell. But home team is India first and BJP next.



shiv wrote:Modi met Nawaz Sharif in Russia on July 7th 2015
Modi met Nawaz again in Paris on 30th November 2015

The Doval meeting with Army shitlander in Bangkok was reported Dec 7th 2015
Sushma Swarajs Heart of Asia meet in Pakistan was reported on Dec 9th
Modi met Nawaz Sharif in Lahore on Dec 25th 2015

Kashmir violence statistics:
http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries ... alties.htm
1. June to October were the worst - but that is normal because the infiltration routes are open in summer
2. 2015 was not much different from 2014 or 2013

So what has changed?

Infiltration attempts have not changed. Meetings with Pakistan have never stopped.

Only - there have been more inconclusive but very widely reported "summits"


State to State relations are unique and does not involve the public and does not involve people to people contact
India is currently using state to state diplomacy to connect with most states and also with Pakistan

So people to people contact is always kept open.


The State is enshrined in many aspects of International Relations. The UN Charter puts the States as the centre actor and guarantees its sovereignty. International law refers mainly to the State and it is only the State that can declare war.
While many actors including multinational companies and nongovernment organisation play a significant role in world events and have considerable influence it is the State that sets the rules both internally and externally.
Given the status of the State and the focus on this instrument it would be extremely difficult to remove the State from the study of International Relations.

http://www.wwnorton.com/college/polisci ... mmary.aspx


The Art of Diplomacy
-Traditional diplomacy entails states trying to influence the behavior of other actors by negotiating.
-Diplomacy usually begins with bargaining through direct and indirect communication in an attempt to reach agreement on an issue.
-For bargaining to be successful, each party needs to be credible. Well-intentioned parties have a higher probability of successful negotiations. Although states seldom enter diplomatic bargaining as equals, each has information and goals of its own. The outcome is almost always mutually beneficial, but the outcome may not please each of the parties equally.

-The use of public diplomacy is an increasingly popular technique. It involves targeting both foreign publics and elites, attempting to create an overall image that enhances a country’s ability to achieve its objectives.
-Diplomacy may need to include more than negotiations, making other forms of diplomacy necessary.
-Some states may choose niche diplomacy, concentrating their efforts on in a few areas.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_relations
National interest[edit]
Perhaps the most significant concept behind that of power and sovereignty, national interest is a state’s action in relation to other states where it seeks to gain advantage or benefits to itself. National interest, whether aspirational or operational, is divided by core/vital and peripheral/non-vital interests. Core or vital interests constitute the things which a country is willing to defend or expand with conflict such as territory, ideology (religious, political, economic), or its citizens. Peripheral or non-vital are interests which a state is willing to compromise.
Last edited by svinayak on 29 Dec 2015 11:22, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby svinayak » 29 Dec 2015 11:00

Political sciences as such have the tendency to be quite state-centered. That makes it hard for them to grasp other actors in international politics, such as transnational or international social movements . Not all actors that have to be considered as political direct all their actions towards a state - there are also anti-state and a-state actions. Nevertheless, related to international affairs, it will be hard to find another concept than the state - given that international affairs are defined as affairs between states.

Indian media, presstitutes and India Opposition parties do not matter during state to state relations.
Modi personal visit to Nawaz Sharief also is not state to state action. Sushma visit to Ibad is a international conf meet.

Only state action is
-Nawaz invite and his visit to India during Modi inauguration.
-Modi meet with Nawaz at SCO
-NSA meet in Dec

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby RajeshG » 29 Dec 2015 11:24

I think NaMo definitely believes that he can change Paki behavior. He probably envisions pakis singing achche-din-aane-wale-hain & sabka-saath-sabka-vikaas in Karachi if not Lahore in 10 years time. Most probably he also believes in the concept of akhand-bharat from his RSS background. If he can transform India economically in 2 terms there might be a real possibility of this happening.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby ramana » 29 Dec 2015 11:38

Read somewhere NaMo told Badmash and chorus "Na zameen, Na jannat mila? Chodo yeh nafrat!"

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Atri » 29 Dec 2015 11:48

Hahaha.. Ramiz Raja and Mohd Yusuf Yohana fighting on live TV..


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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby SSridhar » 29 Dec 2015 13:20

** Intel agencies issue a threat alert to all States & U/Ts ** TimesNow

An LeT group from Pakistan is on the way

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby svinayak » 29 Dec 2015 13:59

Imagine a 20-something colleague - slogging 16 hrs a day, 7 days a week, rarely taking a holiday, living out of a suitcase - across time zones - at least 20 days a month, speaking on diverse subjects, handling negotiations, facing 24X7 merciless scrutiny of competitors, media and jealous colleagues waiting for him to make ONE tiny mistake; and yet staying calm, composed and never asking for empathy, praise or pay-raise. Such a colleague would be rated a top performer, a darling of the organization, touted as a role model and put on a pedestal.THIS GENT MODI is doing pretty much all of the above, for one of the most complex organizations in the world called Republic of India.He is doing it at 65 when most of his contemporaries are respected Dadaji, into the 5th year of a salubrious retired life, enjoying a leisurely morning walk, playing with grandkids, giving gyan to neighbourhood maali, bemoaning what this world is coming to, but generally having a good time.Most other PMs and Presidents are in their 40s and 50s and the stress of unlimited public expectations is already showing on them.Let's mock Modi, condemn him, be perpetually unhappy with him coz after all, he is a politician and we have a birth right to do so.We are highly demanding shareholders, employers cum clients of Modi who demand results, not mere hard work....THE FACT is that we bloody can't reform a damn department, organization of our mohalla in 18 months but we expect Modi to turn around a large complex, divided and irritated country overnight.This 31st, lets take a pause for a minute, keep aside our hatred, disdain and cynicism towards Modi and simply wish him a happy new year...JUST FOR TRYING..!!

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby dhruvM » 29 Dec 2015 14:29

svinayak wrote:
Imagine a 20-something colleague - slogging 16 hrs a day, 7 days a week, rarely taking a holiday, living out of a suitcase - across time zones - at least 20 days a month, speaking on diverse subjects, handling negotiations, facing 24X7 merciless scrutiny of competitors, media and jealous colleagues waiting for him to make ONE tiny mistake; and yet staying calm, composed and never asking for empathy, praise or pay-raise. Such a colleague would be rated a top performer, a darling of the organization, touted as a role model and put on a pedestal.THIS GENT MODI is doing pretty much all of the above, for one of the most complex organizations in the world called Republic of India.He is doing it at 65 when most of his contemporaries are respected Dadaji, into the 5th year of a salubrious retired life, enjoying a leisurely morning walk, playing with grandkids, giving gyan to neighbourhood maali, bemoaning what this world is coming to, but generally having a good time.Most other PMs and Presidents are in their 40s and 50s and the stress of unlimited public expectations is already showing on them.Let's mock Modi, condemn him, be perpetually unhappy with him coz after all, he is a politician and we have a birth right to do so.We are highly demanding shareholders, employers cum clients of Modi who demand results, not mere hard work....THE FACT is that we bloody can't reform a damn department, organization of our mohalla in 18 months but we expect Modi to turn around a large complex, divided and irritated country overnight.This 31st, lets take a pause for a minute, keep aside our hatred, disdain and cynicism towards Modi and simply wish him a happy new year...JUST FOR TRYING..!!


vinayakuddin-ji! Strange are the ways of the internet. This was originally shared by someone on my friend list on facebook 3 days ago. funny to find it rehashed on BRF of all places.

Information, no matter what the source or generation, propagates *rapidly* on the interwebs IFF it is good content/useful. Its a pointer for us abduls.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby arun » 29 Dec 2015 14:32

SSridhar wrote:** Intel agencies issue a threat alert to all States & U/Ts ** TimesNow

An LeT group from Pakistan is on the way



Meanwhile ....................

Having sown the seeds of Mohammadden Terrorism in order to attempt to intimidate India and others in the neigbourhood, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan reaps the whirlwind. Demonstration of the IED Mubarak variant of the IEDology of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan kills 12 in Mardan. :

At least 12 killed, 30 injured in suicide blast at NADRA office in Mardan

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby arun » 29 Dec 2015 14:50

In the Land of the Pure aka Islamic Republic of Pakistan, Green on Green Intra-Mohammadden violence takes the form of Mohammadden Clerics scuffling with each other in the Council for Islamic Ideology (CII), a constitutional body that advises the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s legislature whether or not a certain law is repugnant to Mohammaddenism.

This is scuffle between Mohammadden Clerics is certainly not behavior that will send Non-Mohammaddens the message that claims by Mohammaddens that theirs is “The Religion of Peace” deserve to be even cursorily considered:


Maulana Sherani, Ashrafi fight it out over 'Ahmadi issue' at CII meeting

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 29 Dec 2015 14:58

Shiv,

Very good analysis in the past few posts. You have correctly brought out the crystal clear fact that Pak army, Punjabi , ISI, assorted terrorists organisations share a particular goal and ideology and that's never going to change. I also like your analysis of 3 diff paks one of which engages the west. So what should we do next.

I believe that modi should now let intelligence agencies impose a cost on Pakistan. Find a way of executing the top terrorists on our list - Dawood , Hafiz et all. Strongly support Baluchistan and start an insurgency in Sind. Keep talking to Nawaz for the sake of the domestic and international audience leading them up a winding garden path but let's start action on ground.

We need not explicitly take credit for the operations when they happen - but the message will go out. We need to start taking the initiative now. Also we have tied down a huge part of our army in J&K and we have taken civilian and army casualties while costs have not been imposed on the Pakis (not referring to the terrorists we kill but their paymasters). This must stop so that we can reduce forces in the valley and restructure and reduce the size of our army, paying and equipping them better.

We can't let the pakis neutralise our huge conventional advantage like this.

I think a space has been created for action now (ie the secularists really don't have any legs to stand on now due to to what shiv calls the informal , irrelevant but high optics summits )

I feverently pray the action is happening already.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby abhijitm » 29 Dec 2015 16:02

Modi's unpredictable foreign policy makes the observers and analysts guessing what his intentions are. In my opinion this is the indication of him not being under pressure or external influence. His game has practically become anybody's guess.

This is the best strategy. We need unpredictability when dealing with pakis.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Dec 2015 17:04

SSridhar wrote:** Intel agencies issue a threat alert to all States & U/Ts ** TimesNow

An LeT group from Pakistan is on the way


This is a Pakistani reflex action to any Indian overture.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2

Postby Hari Seldon » 29 Dec 2015 17:34

A little more detail, from twitter:

>>GAURAV C SAWANT ‏@gauravcsawant 4h4 hours ago
Parliament, @PMOIndia, Army Hq, nuke installations on Terror Cross hair. LeT to try & derail peace initiative. Int Terror Alert. @IndiaToday


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