shiv wrote:China has promised Pakistan 46 billion dolahs in investment and the Paki army has to guarantee security for the Chinese - and this is openly publicized information. What chance does India have to ship anything via shitland and get security, especially with defunct railways? If Modi, Doval and Jindal can't see this they are all stupid. Jindal in particular is a successful businessman and did not make money from sentiment.
I think all this talk of ore via Shitistan is a bogey with the charge being led by Darkha Butt who claims she "broke the story" about Jindals business interests. Jindal may sell steel to Pakistan, but that's about it. There will be no shipment through Pakistan - except maybe an agreement to allow biscuits and wheat into Afghanistan and get Chana and Almonds in return
Consider this scenario:
China builds a highway / industrial corridor from Gwadar through pakjab and POK to Tibet with branches off into Afghanistan. This is heavily protected by pak army with the maximum degree of accountability they are capable of. And most of Pakistan's sovereignty is ceded to china so as to protect China's sizable investment.
India participates in a TAPI pipeline that intersects the CPEC corridor. Pak army protects this with the minimum degree of accountability that they can get away with. Because India, yindoos.
Some non state actor blows up the TAPI pipeline. He would have to do it in KP or Baluchistan or in the deserts of Sindh, so as to keep away from CPEC.
Now, will a supposedly rational actor like Pakistan 's new chinese master accept this paki "operation " because it is "far enough " away from CPEC? Or will they follow the chinese pattern of freaking out at destabilizing actions that would barely cause a ripple in Pakistan or even India? To look at it another way, if you are underwriting insurance for CPEC, will the premium change after the TAPI pipeline is blown up?
What about people and politicians of KP, Baluchistan, and Sindh who see themselves falling farther behind, with pakjab getting all the benefits from CPEC while they get explosions? Would chinese masters step in to stem the destabilization?
I think Modi-led GOI decided they needed to invest diplomatic energy in the scenario that china will actually manage to bring about a long term de-kabilafication of Pakistan. If it doesn't work out, the energy is not wasted as it buys us the moral high ground.
Either way, nothing goes of our father by playing nice for now. Modi the self-described optimist is putting down a marker for the best-case scenario.