What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

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sanjaykumar
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

Hindus themselves restrict the term idol to their own practice. Never heard no Hindu refer to Muslimsprostrating to that stone idol in the sands five times a day. It meets every definition of the term.

I disagree that the Christian idolatry is overlooked by Muslims. I do not believe crosses and crucifixes are permitted entry into the holy land of Saudis.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by Kashi »

Jhujar wrote:Pashtuns are really frustrated with Paki state now. Have been Watching Pakhtun commentators on Paki TV. Majority of them have realized that they got fooled and used by Pakjabi. Little stability & prosperity in Afghanistan will be key to make them know which side of border is their bread buttered. They will take Balochistan along with them.
Perhaps the Paki strategy of strategic depth is actually strategic debt (destabilisation). As long as the Pakhtuns are embroiled in Afghanistan, they'll have less energy to focus on getting Waziristan out of their grasp. A stable Pashtun centric Afghanistan will have both the good and the bad Taliban turn their focus on Pakjabis..
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by vijaykarthik »

Wow - no news on the recent nuclear test and also the missile launch?

KJU did both... and if the grape vine is to be believed, it seems that KJU will try and have one more n test in a short while.

Wonder what US / UN will do now that he has defied.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

Couple of years ago Robert Kaplan also looked at TSP breakup and we all discussed it in the Future strategic Scenarios thread:

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 0#p1770250


Sudip wrote:Rearranging the Subcontinent by Robert D Kaplan
What would a terminally diseased Pakistani state come to look like? It might see more feisty regionalism in the southern provinces of Balochistan and Sind, whose leaders told me on a trip through the area some years ago that they would prefer over time a closer relationship with New Delhi than with Islamabad. These are people who never accepted a strong Pakistani state to begin with and always advocated more federalism. With Balochistan and Sind moving closer to India, and the Afghanistan-Pakistan Pashtun border area in permanent disarray because of turmoil inside Afghanistan according to such a scenario, then a rump state of Greater Punjab might begin to emerge — again, denied for years by officials up until the point that it is undeniable.
Image

Happy Christmas folks

Only thing is it wont happen unless K_P goes and joins Afghanistan or is allowed to join a new Pashtun state with Northern Alliance state.
I also don't like Sindh to be part of any Pakjab entity.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

Another thing is unless Pakistan is tamed or broken up, no settlement with China can happen ever.

Let me explain. India cannot be seen settling any more territory to Pakistan. The PVNR govt passed a resolution on Kashmir for this very purpose. Ipso facto the same idea is exhibited towards China.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by Pulikeshi »

ramana wrote:Another thing is unless Pakistan is tamed or broken up, no settlement with China can happen ever.
This is perhaps true... but beyond a few other guru log on the thread I've come to a more radical conclusion -
India is what makes Pakistan tick - the way it does!

Jingo's wet dreams aside - the Indian state seems satisfied with a Manchurian Mughal Emperor (MME) -
in Isloo... too complex for me to explain in writing... but the fake capital and fake MME was shifted in 47, but the strategy remains.
Pakistan has been treated as a rump state by India - what appears as 3.5 is actually 3.5 + 1.
71 makes sense in a different way - not excusing the Paki inhumanity - India got her way to this new normal.

The goals of the 1 may be sometimes aligned and otherwise not with 3.5 - but expect Pakistan to remain and the
China border to remain an issue till a natural rebalance is achieved (no I do not mean just economic).

India has shown that the US in Af-Pak is in her interest and provides a net security necessary for her
transformation. Nothing has changed, even the silly pulling up of the ambi for a dress down is just good drama.
There is no sellout, no spinelessness, no dilly dallying, it is cold hard calculated realism at work if you can see it.
More importantly if jingos can stomach it, because the raw power that some want on display a'int gonna happen.
As I have said before on this forum - even if another attack occurs expect chai biscoot and uninterruptable onlee!
India is that smart, for now, it needs current Pakistan intact!
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

Pulikeshi, Yes +1 was Congress party in India. Its part of the Partition plan that it wouldn't erase Pakistan in order to keep Anglo-Saxon interests in Middle East intact.

However Middle East is itself boiling and churning.
So Caroe's 'Wells of power' are changing and to stay steadfast to long nullified promises is plain silly like the 'Boy stood on the Burning deck' syndrome.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by shiv »

sanjaykumar wrote:Hindus themselves restrict the term idol to their own practice. Never heard no Hindu refer to Muslimsprostrating to that stone idol in the sands five times a day. It meets every definition of the term.
This is an insightful observation. Hindus did not even have a concept that considered worship in any form as bad - and they simply swallowed every negative accusation that was made about their own "idol" worship. Fact is there is nothing wrong with worshipping an idol. God ain't gonna kill you for it, and Muslims are too indoctrinated to realise that what they do is idol worship too. Makkah itself is one huge idol that Muslims face and circumambulate just as a Hindu might face and circumambulate his favoured deity

It is plain bigotry to say "Your idol worship is bad. My idol worship is not idol worship". But then bigotry is normal in the practice of Islam. But no one must complain because we are secular and all secularists must accept anything imposed on us as religion. If it is my religion to be a bigot and my book says it - others can stuff it.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

One page 1, I quoted Emma Duncan's excerpt from "Breaking the Curfew" on what makes Pakistan tick:
Pakistan such an interesting place to observe. It has three sets of history, and three sets of standards. It has the baggage of ideas that go with Pakistan, Urdu and Islam; It has the British Package; it has the ancient local base of Punjabi, Sindhi, Baluch and Pathan culture. The different layers fit badly together; and when they contradict each other, people start telling lies to others and to themselves.
This is an apparent layer cake model I talked about in Sunnyvale talk in 2009! (Prem and svinayak!!!)

In above cake model the base is ancient sub-national cultures: Punjabi at the center and Sindhi, Baluch and, Pathan at the periphery. The top layer is again three with Pakistan, Urdu and Islam. The British package is like the middle icing that binds the two layers.

We see now that the bottom layer is fracturing. The British package or the glue that binds the two layers is rotten away.

And the Islam in Pakistan is now more and more sectarian Sunni Islam. Recall recently the clerics from Nizamuddin in Delhi were harassed by ISI and Sushma Swaraj had to intervene.

The UP elections and the rise of Yogi Adityanath as CM is another blow to the idea of Pakistan as Ganga-Jamuni tehzeeb goes down the drain.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by UlanBatori »

It is useful to remember that Pakistan, if it so chooses, can decide to live a completely non-India-obsessed existence. Imagine if they actually pulled the military away from the border, made peace with Afghanistan and Iran, and decided to focus on economic development. The Cradle of Civilization, flowing from Mohenjodaro and Harappa! The summer resorts of the Mughal Emperors. The nation that spawned Hanif Muhammed, Majid Jehangir and Pervez Musharraf and Hasina AtimBum! Located as always at the strategic Armpit of South Asia. So let's not write them off, unless we are willing to really stay the course and smash them to pieces. Which I doubt if the PRC will allow without serious repercussions.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by Prem »

Paki obsession about India is hereditary, genetic and religion induced mental make up. They can't live without and we have this great lever to manage Paki behavior which India have only begin to use. Paki reaction is predictable. They are confused and scared ever since MAD team took over the reins in Delhi. Paki leaders are having heard time convincing Aam Abduls that they matter Vis a Vis India.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

Up
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

Time to revisit periodically and update our knowledge.

As I write, UAE demanded TSP repay the $1B loaned.
Most of the Arab countries have ditched TSP.
Turkey is its new patron.
China is on the fence.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

We started this thread in Dec 2015 and stopped.
It's quite crucial for we see that unravelling of TSP has started once the factors that make Pakistan Tick is being addressed: nuclear question, Pashtuns, Afghanistan, and above all India'
Would suggest folks re-read our old comments and renew our faith.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ArjunPandit »

Dont ever remember seeing this thread....to me it always seems like ticking of a bomb that never bursts or fusion that is always 30 years in time feasible...thought of multiple scenarios for the endgame of paxtan but seem like its a long chess for which we will have to wait far far longer.

But what has kept it going long is perhaps its similarity with a virus.
- A virus only lives within a host. Paxtan's ability to attract and find new primary hosts. In 50s it was britain which had an obligation towards its colony followed by USA, then china since mid 2010s.
- ability to mutate/adapt, just like covid paxis have mutated as and when needed. You cay say they exhibit polymorphism, from the direct action day to "you are free to go to your temples etc" by jinnah to radicalization by zia. In summary good survival instincts
- being useful to others. have done the dirty jobs for anyone KSA, China, USA unlike poor jerk indians who preach others they are a pleasing wife.
Net net unless India creates scenario to act, they would survive for another 30 years. We think of them as fools, but all said and done they have kept violence limited to kashmir since 2014 and will keep so..they will keep it below threshold barring certain incidents to make modi commit a mistake but support/instigate chinese this time or start on the 0.5 front
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by nandakumar »

ArjunPandit wrote:Dont ever remember seeing this thread....to me it always seems like ticking of a bomb that never bursts or fusion that is always 30 years in time feasible...thought of multiple scenarios for the endgame of paxtan but seem like its a long chess for which we will have to wait far far longer.

But what has kept it going long is perhaps its similarity with a virus.
- A virus only lives within a host. Paxtan's ability to attract and find new primary hosts. In 50s it was britain which had an obligation towards its colony followed by USA, then china since mid 2010s.
- ability to mutate/adapt, just like covid paxis have mutated as and when needed. You cay say they exhibit polymorphism, from the direct action day to "you are free to go to your temples etc" by jinnah to radicalization by zia. In summary good survival instincts
- being useful to others. have done the dirty jobs for anyone KSA, China, USA unlike poor jerk indians who preach others they are a pleasing wife.
Net net unless India creates scenario to act, they would survive for another 30 years. We think of them as fools, but all said and done they have kept violence limited to kashmir since 2014 and will keep so..they will keep it below threshold barring certain incidents to make modi commit a mistake but support/instigate chinese this time or start on the 0.5 front
The BRF is noted for posters who not only excel in their insights of various issues but also combine with it a capacity to clothe it in a wry sense of humour. Here is an example:
"... it always seems like ticking of a bomb that never bursts or fusion that is always 30 years in time feasible...thought of multiple scenarios for the endgame of paxtan but seem like its a long chess for which we will have to wait far far longer."
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

The long view of what makes Pakistan tick is its Pathans.
The northwest fell to Ghazni around 1000 AD and gradually the Islamist horde rolled in.
The Arab invasion of Sindh 300 years earlier did not do much.
In fact, the Mughal conquest was of Turco-Afghan- Persian-led North India by Chagatai Turks.
Mughal with Rajputs eliminated Pathan rule or made them vassals replacing the inner circle with Chagatai Turk(eg Chin Qilich Khan) and Persians(eg. Nur Jehan brother etc).
As British colonial rule waned Muslims of north India created the desire for a Muslim-led state in North West and East Bengal which at partition became Pakistan.
Within 10 years Pathan-led (Ayub Khan) Pak Army staged a coup and took over the country.
And when Pakistan led by Nawaz Sharif(Pakjabi) was in the doldrums, it is another Pathan who was raised to power.

So with the Taliban on the rise we see Pathan reassertion again.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

^^^
There is an African proverb that is apt for Pakjabis:

"The sheep fears the wolf, but finally gets eaten by the shepherd!"

Who is the wolf, sheep and shepherd are all for the reader to imagine!
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

Brilliant proverb.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by svenkat »

ramana wrote:Keeping Afghanistan together out if reach keeps Pakistan on road to disintegration.
Can you repost this sentence again, ramana ji. It is not clear.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

svenkat wrote:
ramana wrote:Keeping Afghanistan together out if of reach, keeps Pakistan on road to disintegration.
Can you repost this sentence again, ramana ji. It is not clear.
What I meant to convey is that a consolidated Afghanistan out of Pakistan's reach will lead to the latter's disintegration.
The reasons are many: Durand Line, rival power model, etc. etc.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

Did you note when the thread was started?
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by svenkat »

ramana wrote:Did you note when the thread was started?
Yes,ramana ji.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by Karan M »

What makes Pakistan tick is its belief in Islamist supremacy and unwillingness to cohabit with Hindus in any form or fashion. This is what created it, this is where they are today. It may take another twenty, thirty years or even sooner, the next two decades perhaps, for them to admit they can't thrive on their own as they have no worthwhile skills that bring substantial economic benefits. They may become such a nuisance thanks to their increasingly radicalised society, something which cannot be stopped at the current rate, that even their Western, Middle Eastern and PRC sponsors may choose to disassociate given the dangers of blowback, and how Pakistanis radicalize the non resident sorts in other societies abroad.

At this point we will face a dangerous gambit, wherein Pakistanis may actually clamor for reintegration with an Indian union, but with their "privileges" to be as bigoted as possible, intact. They'll want to feed off the Indian economic trough, while retaining the freedom to persecute non Muslims, intact.

I hope we are not stupid enough to give it to them, under some mistaken assumption of akhand bharat and we are all one onlee sort of myth making.

Pakistan needs to be broken up, and South Asian Islam also needs to be made free of extremism. That endeavour will never succeed as long as an unbroken, nuclear armed Pakistan acts like an inspiration for terrorism against "others" .
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by Cyrano »

Unless we become a hindu rashtra and the price of readmission is ghar waapsi. But may be I'm dreaming too much...
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by rajpa »

What makes Porkisthorn tick? Top 3 Points:

1. Porkis feel they are in a do or die situation with India so they pull out all the stops to fight India
2. Not having any of their strategic tools (other than the nuke nudeness) to defeat India, they desperately latch on to whoever they can (West, Afghan Taliban) to gang up against India
3. Porkis are all born snake oil salesmen as they have nothing to sell other than lies. Bait and switch is a way of life in that country and therefore they are experts at it and able to routinely bait the west into a trap like they lure their cousins (male or female) into intercourse

The only way to contain Pakistan is to ensure that they never open their mouths, nobody ever bothers to listen to them, and learns to spot their excuses and lies and ensure they are shut out of every international forum till they behave like a civil democracy having a semblance of law and order. Best will be to break that country up.

FATF is a good example of how we got the dog to stop wagging its tail. The facts, truth, law and justice are not in favour of the Porks and more they are treated like the cheap criminals that they are, the better the response there will be.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by srin »

What makes them a tick ? They are blood suckers and are hard to get rid of once the infestation begins.

Oh wait - you wanted to know what makes them tick ... :D
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by kit »

One word

Cash More., and it's not Kashmir, but just a convenient excuse by the Paki military to hold on and stay relevant. No Kashmir no cash more.

Be it China, US whatever for the Paki Army this simple equation adds to the low-cost ideology driven terrorist production machine serves the purpose of people who profit from it.

It's always money at the end of the day, even ideologies.

Imagine a mafia controlling a country!

No amount of reasoning or hand wringing works with such kind only brute power and political/economic/subversive maneouvering.

NEVER trust the pakis ALWAYS verify
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by nachiket »

What makes Pakistan tick are repeated infusions of foreign money. Everything else is contingent on them getting access to it.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by Aditya_V »

nachiket wrote:What makes Pakistan tick are repeated infusions of foreign money. Everything else is contingent on them getting access to it.
There is one word Hinduphobia - the collapse of Pakistan will remove the main BIF pivot and India will be allowed to grow.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

Folks found an old 1999 report of the Political Instability Task Force from Wilson Center.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/defa ... Phase2.pdf

It finds three factors that can determine state viability: Infant mortality, trade openness, and level of democracy.
Infant mortality is a sum total of economic factors. It wraps up many factors that indicate the quality of life.
Its more significant in democracies and leads to regime change but is not significant in autocracies as the rulers don't care.
Trade openness gives a measure of the economy for not all states can produce everything that's needed for quality of life.
Trade openness is more important in partial democracies than in full democracies, for people can change regimes by voting them out.
And the level of democracy between Full democracy, partial democracy, and autocracy.
Now Pakistan is categorized as a partial democracy in that report.
I think it's both a partial democracy wrt political parties and an autocracy wrt to the military.

Moreover, Pakistan has regime instability due to the short duration of the political parties in power due to the autocrats changing them frequently for various reasons. The net result is the regime does not develop stability roots.
Further, it has ethnic and religious instability due to the Pakjab domination over other Sindi, Baloch, and Pashtuns, and Deobandi domination over regional Barelvi and both over Shias.
Below are consequences or early indicators of state failure:
Add genocide of minorities like Ahmediyas(religious) and now Baloch (political similar to Bangladesh).
Polticides of leadership from Liaqat Ali Khan to Benazir Bhutto.
We see the Pak rupee free-falling wrt $ which is an indicator of economic failure.

So all indicators are leading to instability already underway.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by Rakesh »

:rotfl:

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... 81826?s=20 ---> Pakistan to offer Pakistani citizenship to investors from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Afghanistan, China, UAE etc (minimum investment amount $1 million). May be extended to other countries later (Central Asia, UK, EU, US etc): Pak media
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by Manish_P »

Ah so basically they are trying to attract (with open advertising) all the scamsters, despots, drug barons, all round in general scum to pay a million dollar bribe to the uniformed jihadis and stay under the protection of the jihadi military... a la Dawood, OBL, ...
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by CalvinH »

Manish_P wrote:Ah so basically they are trying to attract (with open advertising) all the scamsters, despots, drug barons, all round in general scum to pay a million dollar bribe to the uniformed jihadis and stay under the protection of the jihadi military... a la Dawood, OBL, ...
OBL and Dawood are strategic assets. They get free boarding, lodging and entertainment.

I am sure this will invite second and third generation of Paki faujis settled in the west to come and loot more money from Pakistan. This time these kids will be able to own companies and properties in their name.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by CalvinH »

ramana wrote:Folks found an old 1999 report of the Political Instability Task Force from Wilson Center.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/defa ... Phase2.pdf

It finds three factors that can determine state viability: Infant mortality, trade openness, and level of democracy.
Infant mortality is a sum total of economic factors. It wraps up many factors that indicate the quality of life.
Its more significant in democracies and leads to regime change but is not significant in autocracies as the rulers don't care.
Trade openness gives a measure of the economy for not all states can produce everything that's needed for quality of life.
Trade openness is more important in partial democracies than in full democracies, for people can change regimes by voting them out.
And the level of democracy between Full democracy, partial democracy, and autocracy.
Now Pakistan is categorized as a partial democracy in that report.
I think it's both a partial democracy wrt political parties and an autocracy wrt to the military.

Moreover, Pakistan has regime instability due to the short duration of the political parties in power due to the autocrats changing them frequently for various reasons. The net result is the regime does not develop stability roots.
Further, it has ethnic and religious instability due to the Pakjab domination over other Sindi, Baloch, and Pashtuns, and Deobandi domination over regional Barelvi and both over Shias.
Below are consequences or early indicators of state failure:
Add genocide of minorities like Ahmediyas(religious) and now Baloch (political similar to Bangladesh).
Polticides of leadership from Liaqat Ali Khan to Benazir Bhutto.
We see the Pak rupee free-falling wrt $ which is an indicator of economic failure.

So all indicators are leading to instability already underway.
All these indicators are there for a long time but Pakistan is still surviving as a state.

Because all of these applies to a normal state. Pakistan is not one. Its not a partial democracy. Standard definitions doesn't apply. The establishment rules with impunity and intervenes at will in the elections. The election outcomes are effectively decided by whether the establishment intervenes or decides to stay neutral.

See the recent elections in Daska in Punjab, a national assembly seat (equivalent to Indian LS). 20 or so presiding officers disappear after the election is concluded (with the results of their polling stations of course) and show up together next morning. Videos exists showing the presiding officer taken to vehicles by men in plainclothes. No meaningful action was taken.

Establishment decides Judicial outcomes, state and foreign policy outcomes and is now openly calling shots in commerce and economic policies. They have firm grip on the narrative and never gets the blame.

Pak establishment is keeping the state together. We can quote all stats but for a state to fail the power behind the state needs to fail. So far the establishment has survived very well and only got stronger.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

Ayub Khan called it Guided Democracy.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by ramana »

We are not discussing the various Islamic factions vying for street power and who is backing them.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by CalvinH »

The power and influence of religious factions in Pakistan for Pakistan demise is highly overrated. They are controlled by the establishment who uses them at will. They know their place. They have street power but their leaders are under establishment thumb. Once in a while a particular person will try to lead a mutiny and establishment attends to it quickly. Case in point: LEJ chief was killed once he tried to align with ISIS and LEJ is effectively dead after that.

Establishment has learned its lesson from Lal Masjid incident. Over a period of time establishment has managed these factions well. I say this because a big war like Afghan war and later US intervention in Afghanistan could have led to these factions gaining disproportionate power by now and calling shots. But that hasnt happened.

Any Punjabi led or dominated religious faction wont be able to challenge the establishment. That hasn't happened in centuries. It wont happen now.

Historically, in centuries of Islamic rules across countries its the ruling elite that has effectively used religion. Not otherwise. Clerics may have enjoyed times of more power but they have seldom called the real shots. The time when they have enjoyed real influence and power is only when the ruling elite is divided. Delhi sultanate period comes to mind. But in Pakistan the ruling elite, the establishment, is one coherent entity.
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Re: What Makes Pakistan tick? Discussion thread

Post by SBajwa »

Army rules with mullahs and waderas (rich feudals) as control of people aka Guided democracy.
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