Levant crisis - III

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 21 Jul 2017 20:27

Syrian rebels feel betrayed by U.S. decision to end CIA support: ‘It will weaken America’s influence.’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/sy ... 533b779796

By embracing Russia, Trump bumps up against top advisers
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... 4320f10921

News media in the west is drumming up outrage over Trump "abandoning" the Syrian people. The US intel community is supposedly upset, too.

Earlier this year, in January, a historic moment occurred when US and Russian jets launched joint airstrikes on ISIS. Two months later, the Syrian regime supposedly launched an inexplicable and completely illogical gas attack on Khan Shaykhun, forcing Trump to launch airstrikes or look like a Russian stooge. That US strike torpedo'd the nascent US-Russia cooperation and reset things back to the status quo.

Now that Trump has ended the CIA program (at least officially), you can expect the Deep State to strike again. Expect another "gas attack" somewhere soon.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 21 Jul 2017 21:03

Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant presented its latest Мi-171Sh-VN at MAKS based on RuAF Syrian Experience .

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jul 2017 23:58

Aoa

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... base-homs/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jul 2017 00:02

Almasdar

DAMASCUS, SYRIA (3:40 P.M.) – Moments ago, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) captured two towns on the Euphrates River after advancing some 35 kilometers through ISIS-held territory in rural Raqqa.

Back by pro-government tribal fighters, the SAA’s Tiger Forces dashed across eastern Raqqa and captured the neighboring towns of Dalha and Al-Aukarishi, thus reaching the Euphrates River in one of its largest single advances in 2017.

After establishing a corridor from the government mainland, SAA troops have created yet another ISIS pocket directly south of Raqqa city and simultaneously cutoff the rival US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from snatching any more ISIS turf along the Euphrates River.

According to a military source debriefing Al-Masdar News, all reports indicating the SDF had entered Dalha and Al-Aukarishi in previous weeks are untrue.

With Deir Ezzor city only 80 kilometers away, the Tiger Forces – commanded by Major General Suheil Al-Hassan – have been tasked with pushing southeast along the M4-Highway, ultimately looking to lift the long-standing siege.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jul 2017 00:03

Clearly the usa approved this move hence no air attacks

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jul 2017 00:05

Iraq ready with a steel fist to crush tal afar

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... -tal-afar/

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 22 Jul 2017 01:22

Where does the Euphrates get water in summer? No big reserves of snow to melt. They don't have big convective thunderstorms, do they? Or does it fully dry up like Indian rivers?

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 22 Jul 2017 03:13

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... -90-tanks/

The Iraqis just signed off on a "very large" purchase of T-90's from Russia. They're wisely shifting away from dependence on the US as the recent conflicts have shown that Washington will always back the Wahabbis over the Shia. I expect Iraq will abandon the US military relationship as soon as possible. They've learned the Americans cannot be trusted. Iraq suffered gravely at the hands of US-backed Sunni Islamists (ISIS & company) over the last few years. America's betrayal has killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis even just since 2014.

As soon as ISIS is crushed, expect Iraq to distance itself from Washington and dramatically improve military ties with Russia.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jul 2017 05:12

Euphrates has numerous dams to store water for farming including in turkey

Compared to our main rivets its water flow is quite small

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jul 2017 05:13

Its confirmed the tigers advanced 30km yesterday to border of deir azzor state on euphrates. Isis lacked men and fell back to its riverine towns

Tiger sees tiger knows tiger punishes

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jul 2017 05:21

In idlib the hts al qaeda nusra is being lined up for the slaughter

https://twitter.com/mig29_/status/888000010222260224

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 22 Jul 2017 07:39

fell back to its riverine towns

This is what I mean: some wonderful opportunities for Gen. Vodkov's Kamov and MiL squadrons. Once the riverbank and river are made untenable, the ISIS is crushed. Roll them upriver along both banks, led by attack helicopters, and scatter them to die in the desert.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jul 2017 08:01

the riverside is one continuous chain of villages and small towns with a few big ones like deir azzor and mayadin.
lakhs of innocents there
so a vietnam style B52 campaign cannot be feasible.

zoom in to the riverside here and you can see http://syria.liveuamap.com/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jul 2017 08:02

James Mattis,United States Secretary of Defense, on ISIS leader al-Baghdadi: 'I believe he is alive'

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jul 2017 08:10

tigres continue to liberate more oilfields north of palmyra

tigres and tribal allies have reached the M4 highway. only one major ISIS den called Madan stands in the route to deir azzor

24 Resistance Axis‏
@Syria_Hezb_Iran

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jul 2017 08:12

the road coming up from the south from the tri junction (jabal al bishri) will be crucial to the DEZ relief mission as easier to move heavy equipment on semi-trailers rather than drive them across the desert. artillery pieces, pallets of ammo, fuel, food, camp gear, tanks, mlrs .... the logistical tail is long and stretches back to Ithriyah now.

the above advance could be a al-tanfish move to 'block' the SDF from that axis while the main moves will be from south.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Jul 2017 11:52

Y. Kanan wrote:https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... -90-tanks/

The Iraqis just signed off on a "very large" purchase of T-90's from Russia. They're wisely shifting away from dependence on the US as the recent conflicts have shown that Washington will always back the Wahabbis over the Shia. I expect Iraq will abandon the US military relationship as soon as possible. They've learned the Americans cannot be trusted. Iraq suffered gravely at the hands of US-backed Sunni Islamists (ISIS & company) over the last few years. America's betrayal has killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis even just since 2014.

As soon as ISIS is crushed, expect Iraq to distance itself from Washington and dramatically improve military ties with Russia.

The Iraqis know very well the current conflict and ISIL is creation of Saudi , They also know that US knows that but that US suck up to Saudis , Hence US cannot be Trusted if given a choice they have to make a choice between Sunni GCC and Shia the choice will be obvious.

Hence the Shia Crescent

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Jul 2017 13:16

We Don't Want Your Bases': Iraqi Vice-President Warns US Army to Back Off

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2017 ... iberation/

Iraqi Vice-President Nouri al-Maliki has hit back at US attempts to claim the credit for the recent liberation of Mosul, emphasizing the leading role that the Iraqi army and people's militia played in the operation to free the city of Daesh terrorists.

"They [the United States] say – and I regret this and reject this – that the victory is their achievement because they led this war, but really this is a victory of the Iraqi army. Yes, they supported us with their aviation, but the main credit belongs to the Iraqi soldiers, the people's militia, Iraq's air force," Maliki told RIA Novosti.

Al-Maliki also reiterated the Baghdad's gratitude to the People's Mobilization Forces (PMF) for helping to defeat Daesh, and the government's opposition to the establishment of US bases on Iraqi soil.

"The US doesn't have the right to say that people's militia, which is comprised of the sons of Iraq, of whom 20,000 have been killed and wounded, are terrorists. If it weren't for the people's militia, there wouldn't be any Sunnis or Shiites left."

"Iraqi society is against foreign bases on our territory… I told the Americans, 'It's not in your interests to return to Iraq in order to establish military bases again,'" al-Maliki said.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jul 2017 17:19

Looking at pics the hard core of isis cadre left now are iraqi anbaris and saudis.there are a lot of saudis in isis.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jul 2017 22:53

News blackout on any reports of tiger forces

Which means big moves are underway

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Jul 2017 23:50

US contributed to ISIS creation, now tries to claim victory over it – Iraqi VP talks tough

https://www.rt.com/news/397171-iraq-vic ... interview/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jul 2017 07:30

approved map released finally
https://twitter.com/MIG29_/status/888844455809298433

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jul 2017 07:34

there are now 4 major towns to the iraqi border - Madan, Deir Azzor, Mayadin and Al Bukamal and 100s of populated farming villages.

the end game has not started yet. it will start when isis is defeated in the desert of sukhnah and T2-Hamimah and finally falls back to the river

the strong ISIS area centered on Aqirbat in eastern hama is under attack by other formations and has been repeatedly pounded by everything from ALCM/SLCM to fighters daily but will finally be islanded and rendered useless like Tal Afar. it will no more play a strategic role in this war. they can withdraw now or sit there and wait for SAA to put them out of misery eventually.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jul 2017 07:37

ruaf continues to pound the above eastern hama region.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ru ... east-hama/

its a short flight from hymenim.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jul 2017 19:14

Tiger forces are 40km from deir azzor town

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... zzor-city/

Movements still shrouded in secrecy to keep isis guessing and sow fud

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jul 2017 19:26

https://twitter.com/ivansidorenko1/stat ... 5124118528

Tribal forces of sheik turki al bouhamad said to be leading the march down the euphrates

The soldiers seen in uniform but with a head turban are generally tribal militias incl sdf

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jul 2017 20:45

https://twitter.com/withinsyriablog/sta ... 9268255744

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Jul 2017 01:16

after being criticized by NGOs for executing few ISIS fighters Captain Mahamad Al-Warfalih in Lybiah send NGOs execution of 20 ISIS rat

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 24 Jul 2017 01:42

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jcpb9nV4OQA

Interview of Assad's wife last year.

Watch it, and you will understand why the regime change is being pushed for.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Jul 2017 02:29

^ Thanks. I was trying to compare that with the HiC robotologues.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jul 2017 07:27

in Idlib Olympics, the Nusra has crushed Shams(Ergogan proxy and was dominant in the countryside / western pasand munnas earlier).
Nusra now controls Idlib with a solid hand and even the west agrees they are a rebranded AQ.

this might force Ergodans hand to send in his EphShield proxies to secure an area near the border ...

which will trigger war with the Kurds ...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jul 2017 07:29

isis releases old propaganda video blaming rival factions and spies for their inability to take DEZ in 3 yrs
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/lo ... eir-ezzor/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jul 2017 07:30

sukhnah under fire control from the hills by SAA. final battles there are imminent - so maybe thats why tiger forces did not bother pushing there from north. there is a junction called Al Qaum north of sukhnah which is the onlee escape route for east hama rats if sukhnah falls, so they will likely block the areas around that.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/br ... ion-sight/

no official roads but satellite pix will show the spider web of kutcha routes over the desert and in between hills. to the west is east hama and to the east is the euphrates
https://www.google.co.in/maps/@35.18570 ... a=!3m1!1e3

the infra in syria is best along the coast and worst in the deserts of the east. along the euphrates it will be better.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jul 2017 07:49

massive SVIED by some other rebel faction flattens a nusra gathering in Idlib
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFcEtKEXsAEm8Mj.jpg

while the other rebels are a collection of turkish and nato favoured munnas, the nusra has always been the most strong and committed to the cause and has the best fighters and equipment. even the syrian govt respects their capabilities and prepares accordingly

they are not pushovers. the chechens might be with them and they even have SF units trained by ex mil vets like alhamma tactical.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jul 2017 13:53

good analysis of current state of play on the chessboard

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/07/sy ... -east.html

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jul 2017 15:26

for operational security , the tigers are delaying news updates for 2-3 days as they should . this map represents what probably was 2 days ago.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jul 2017 15:28

they will need to isolate the remaining ISIS towns along the river (bottle them up atleast) and capture the roads in the map above before they have the logistics to make the final move on deir azzor.

and the powerful isis nodes in east hama have to be destroyed not to leave a huge threat in the rear.

so probably they will capture the tri junction above and look to focus on these other tasks and consolidate and simplify their fronts. DEZ can now be supplied by helicopter from resafa and even heli gunships can have free play to scour the areas around it and gun down isis convoys....its only 40km away now.

reports of Frogfoots being brought forward to T4 airbase.

final gameplan could be trap ISIS in a triangular box east of the euphrates - SAA in west, SDF in north and PMU in east and gun them down. the SDF minus the YPG are not that effective unless USAF acts in support. so perhaps we might see unlikely sight of usaf and ruaf conduction joint missions for the same final battles?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jul 2017 17:40

pics from a reporter moving with tribal forces along the river

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jul 2017 20:48

daish sp cannon in vicinity of DEZ..looking at the long string used to trigger it, the piece is in shaky state so taking no chances which direction it will fire - front or back.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jul 2017 20:58

Salaar Ali‏ @Elly_Ammar 19h19 hours ago
More
SAA Tiger forces assisted by local tribes are hammering ISIS in southern Raqqah,RuAF & SyAF already started striking Madan as ISIS reported