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Levant crisis - III

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Singha
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Jan 2018 05:58

Tigers have reached gate of abu al duhur airbase

General qaeda collapse in southwest aleppo near khanasser region

Aq emirs releasing statements calling on their flock to rally and fight hard

After consolidation the next line of towns is the main higheay from south to idlib itself with hardcore dens like saraqib and khan sheikhun in south and the notorious khan touman harytan anadan belt west of aleppo city ... the proper gates of mordor

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Cain Marko » 11 Jan 2018 08:22

rsingh wrote:
vinod wrote:I hope India prepares for such a swarm drone attack against its bases by the terror babies of our friendly neighbour!!!


Not a specialist but drones fly at low speed . Is it possible to shoot them with cannon fire from some old plane? or some kind of laser technology to disable them at safe distance.

Don't see why not. Perhaps some of the old ack ack guns or retired naval guns could be put to good use.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Jan 2018 08:43

shooting them needs zero elevation guns, which as the aviationist noted is a limitation of the ZSU-23-4 but rectified in the Pantsyr and surely its ancestor the Tunguska as well. but our limited number of Tunguskas are with the armour divisions, not with the IAF or IA bases.

what we need is a truck mounted phalanx type gun system, with a really cheap but high density CRAM type boxes of tiny missiles.

both exist, but we neither have a desi 30mm auto cannon system + radar/EO ready nor such CRAM missiles. we could build on the AK630 which is made under license and mate to local EO and RF sensors. need greenfield initiative on these next gen small interceptor missiles.

we need to invest in both , this is going to be a useful tool needed in bulk at EVERY major defence depot, army cantonment, strategic installation, naval base, IAF base, weapons depot, and a whole bunch of high value civilian targets like refineries, railways , ports etc.

the jihadi needs to succeed only once and can keep on trying.

threat matrix is :

- 81mm/120mm mortars armed with HE or SFW munitions to home in on specific targets like aircraft on flight line including $500 mil phalcons sitting in the open in places like agra and nagpur
- quadcopter drones with shuttle badminton grenades
- bigger drones like the syria ones with 50-100km range and made of radar evading wood and cloth mostly.
- RPG/ATGM fired in ballistic trajectory after careful math on range and velocity falloff in TSP - provide firing tables to the jihadi units with a matrix of weapon + range to target + firing angle.
- air dropped bombs & subsonic missiles in a regular war

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Jan 2018 08:57

Image

ymg3
@ymg33333
13h13 hours ago
Replying to @watanisy
Situation on Idlib's front with your latest Qmaps updated.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Jan 2018 09:06

the Idlib and Aleppo jihadis have enjoyed 2 years of peace except for aleppo city the fronts were static as SAA tried to defeat ISIS.
they stockpiled a lot of weapons but lost the combat edge and grew more like fat looters and goondas plundering taxes and running a extortion racket.

now the best units of SAA are after them and AQ is finding itself a bit short on quality fighters. they probably have not yet fielded their elite 'shock' and inghimasi units & veteran chechens which tend to hang out in turkey border tracts and called in for short campaigns.

SAA today is battle hardened , better equipped and a lot different from the demoralized lot they were 3 years ago. the long war has bred many young leaders as it always does. yesterdays lts and majors are todays seasoned colonels and brigadiers. embedded russian SF would be co-ordinating air strikes. the short distance from hymenim means a lot of loiter time looking for targets of opportunity , both for manned planes and Orlon drones.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 11 Jan 2018 20:52


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 11 Jan 2018 23:11

Putin slams drone attack on Russian base in Syria as provocation

More:
http://tass.com/politics/984721

"There were some provocateurs, but they were not Turks. We know who they are, who paid who for this provocation and what the actual sum was. As for this kind of incidents, there is nothing good about them. These are provocations aimed at destroying previous agreements," Putin said.


He added that those actions were also aimed at undermining Russia’s relations with Turkey and Iran. "We understand it perfectly well so we will work together,"
the Russian leader stressed.

The unmanned aerial vehicles used in the attack on the Russian base in Syria were only disguised as homemade but were actually furnished with high-tech equipment, according to Putin.

"As for these attacks, they were undoubtedly prepared well. We know when and where these unmanned vehicles were handed over [to the attackers], and how many of them there were. These aerial vehicles were disguised - I would like to stress that - as homemade. But it is obvious that some high-tech equipment was used," Putin said.


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Jan 2018 07:18

if anyone in GCC region funded this play, they will eventually come to dubai and ASEAN to visit prostitutes and do drugs. the russian mafia & intel agencies has deep reach in such regions. they might be put to work tracing out and getting at these people.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2018 07:34

Putin should stop all this hinting and come out bluntly. As for the repercussions, I would expect that a few drones will come in towards Riyadh from Houthistan, in due course. The idiots have started an extremely dangerous round of escalation.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Jan 2018 09:27

Emir Al Muhaysini of the HTS has given a clarion call for the faithful to emerge

waves of HTS militants armed with heavy weapons like TOWs are pouring out from the north into the Abu al duhur area to prevent the eastern part of their emirate from being cut off by syrian pincer. this airbase is at a crossroads and seems like a major kabila node like Uqayrabat and Sukhnah was for ISIS.

being forced into a intensive fight from fixed positions they will now be more exposed to artillery and air attacks.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Jan 2018 09:30

Image
The'Nimr'Tiger


@Souria4Syrians
12h12 hours ago
More
Today foreign terrorists backed by Syrian jihadists attempted to push towards Zafaria and Jabal Al kafi in order to force SAA withdrawal from Abu Duhour, it was a huge attack, it completely failed, entire groups wiped out and their equipment seized.

^^ black area on map is a ISIS enclaves a leftover from east hama who crossed the thin SAA corridor to khanassir, slapped the HTS out and setup a new island there. will be crushed when their utility vs HTS is over.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Jan 2018 09:32

Ivan Sidorenko


@IvanSidorenko1
2h2 hours ago
More Ivan Sidorenko Retweeted Inna Sidorkova
#Syria #Russia #Moscow Militant UAV's that Attacked the Khmeimim Air Base / Hmeimim Air Base have been transferred to #Moscow #Russia
#Росси́я #Rossíya Российская Федерация / Rossiyskaya Federatsiya

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Jan 2018 09:33

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Jan 2018 09:35

well camouflaged jihadi positions covered with soil and multiple firing holes
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/951605536021270528

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Jan 2018 09:40

al muhaysini has apparently sent in suicide bombers also in heavily armoured vehicles. the so called Inghimasi...unlike ISIS they are good fighters but also wear a suicide belt for opportunistic uses. the HTS has way more well equipped and trained fighters than ISIS ever had and easy access to stores in turkey via latakia and bab al hawa crossing.

I do not think they have deployed their elite units yet...the ones which were defeated by tiger forces in western aleppo

Ivan Sidorenko


@IvanSidorenko1
7h7 hours ago
More
#Syria #Idlib #Idleb #Edlib
happening NOW
Heavy bombardment with all weapons targetting abu al duhur and maraat al numan and saraqeb areas and sounds of explosions shake the entire syrian north
Ivan Sidorenko


@IvanSidorenko1
7h7 hours ago
More
#Syria #Idlib #Idleb #Edlib #Edleb #Hama
militants say
“”The Dawn will come with a symphony of SVIBIED's and the enemies of god will know true despair,god willing the battle has not even started.”

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby deejay » 12 Jan 2018 09:47

Turkey is supplying MANPADS and MBRLS to their munnas. Also a lot of armoured vehicles from different sources being seen around.

Turkmenistani jeehadis it seems have been the most vicious fighters and are as of now leading the charge against SAA.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Jan 2018 14:50

most of the veteran chechens are also with this lot of bandits. as too some uighurs who permanently moved under turkish umbrella and abandoned their homeland.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Jan 2018 15:16

SDF releases and absorbs former ISIS into its ranks
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... is-members

turkey supplying HTS with weapons incl TOWs
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/01/sy ... tacks.html

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby vinod » 12 Jan 2018 15:49

Singha wrote:turkey supplying HTS with weapons incl TOWs
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/01/sy ... tacks.html


Interesting comment on that article

Turkey's 2018 elections could the explanation of Erdogan's latest flipe

The USA is preparing for serious sanctions on Turkey banking system after the indictment of a Turkish banker, Mehmet Hakan Atilla in the USA court. He has been convicted as guilty for have bypassed the sanctions on Iran, with the knowledge of Erdogan. This is a very serious case.
If the USA proceeds with sanctions, Turkeys economy will be shaken and Erdogan's party may surely loose the 2018 election.
The whole foreign policy in Turkey is rythmed by the elections. As the electoral support for the AKP party is loosing ground, these US sanctions will create a shockwave that may turn the voters against the AKP.

In the latest events in Syria, it appears that Erdogan made a deal with the USA to appease it and avoid that disaster, so he is again turning against Russia and Iran and obeying the USA. He also hope that this gesture will convince the USA to stop arming the YPG.
I think it is very naive. The Russians see clearly in Erdogan's infantile game and they will teach him a lesson by threatening to help the Syrian army to overrun totally the Turkish soldiers, kill them and kick then out.
Erdogan will surely suffer one more humiliation soon in Syria. An eventuel massacre of Turkish soldiers will signal the end of the Turkish adventure in Syrian. Hopefully that will make Erdogan loose the elections, finally.

Posted by: Virgile | Jan 11, 2018 11:24:44 PM


Did Erdogan forget about the coup?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2018 16:24

Erdogan can get asylum in Qatar. :)

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 12 Jan 2018 20:37

Video of Krasnopol strike

Минобороны России‏Verified account @mod_russia

#SYRIA In #Idlib province, Russian military intelligence located the place of final assembly and storage of aircraft-type strike drones. Strike by #Krasnopol high-precision projectile destroyed the depot

https://twitter.com/mod_russia/status/9 ... 6359685120

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2018 20:40

And predictably on cue, CNN, ABC etc have heart-rending photos and videos of hefty guys in leather jackets (a.k.a. "starving children building educational toys at elementary school") being dug out of rubble after "airstrikes on civilians". :roll:

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 13 Jan 2018 08:51

Syrian militants claim that they shot down the Russian UAV "Forpost"

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3045849.html

The original is taken from a colleague diana_mihailova in the militants Nour din Al Zinki declare that they shot down the Russian UAV "Forpost" in the province of Ham. Militants [of the Syrian rebel group] Nour din Al Zinki declare that the Russian UAV "Forpost" was shot down by heavy machine guns Hama province, not far from the village. Atashan.

Image
Image
Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 13 Jan 2018 09:54

heavy battles going on near al duhur airbase and on flanks to the west of it. HTS is fighting hard and heavy casualties on both sides. tiger forces have been beaten back several times trying to infiltrate the base and lost some mid level commanders also. they are trying to outflank this well defended region now.

from southern aleppo a new govt column has moved into the semi vacated Al hass plataeu and taken over some 18 hamlets mainly vs ahrar al shams jihadis.

clarion calls from every rock and minaret in Idlib for jihadis to put aside their internal factionalism and unite against the shia-alawite regime apostates

the Mahdi Al Muhaysini himself has posed for cameras poring over maps and deciding strategy like rommel or zhukov :lol:

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 13 Jan 2018 10:00

SVBIEDs being brought into theater

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTYCnl2UQAAqgTi.jpg

the billy goat to drove it to get his 72 pigs baksheesh

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTX_oepXUAA4tMd.jpg

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 13 Jan 2018 10:04

massive numbers of jihadis from past defeated areas like aleppo and in south were let go in green buses to Idlib.
these are all being mobilized now.
the entire place is a armed jihadi camp.

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 13 Jan 2018 10:07

tigers are creeping around to east of the base, looking to isolate it from reinforcements

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 13 Jan 2018 10:40

general operational map

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 13 Jan 2018 15:18

way more quality of eqpt than isis
https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=80d_1515690111
https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=7b6_1515686982
https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=39a_1515685876
https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=175_1515518807

see saw battles with SAA making progress net but with heavy losses in men and material.

this is where more airpower(gunships) and a parachute batallion or two could play a key role

arms factories from bulgaria and other shady players have provided them mountains of deniable non-western eqpt via turkey paid for by western deep state. and shady cargo contractors used to haul around these weapons.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08- ... ns-flights

^^ even cargo manifests and scanned memos are inside, uncovered by a bulgarian journalist

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 14 Jan 2018 09:55

the al hass plateau has been abandoned by ahrar al shams and syrians from aleppo side has marched across it cautiously to reach Tel daman for first time since 2013. the tel daman to khanasser road is under their control through the hills some 45km

they look set to close off this pocket barring the fistula of ISIS stuck at the bottom.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 14 Jan 2018 09:56

the small yellow island in top left is Fuah-Kafraya and the circle near them is Idlib city. the M5 motorway still in jihadi hands was the main highway to Aleppo.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 14 Jan 2018 10:01

with only 12 km gap in open country, under SAA guns, the shams front will abandon the pocket very soon. HTS is not helping them and is focussed on defending Abu duhur and the areas along the M5 motorway their core heartland
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 14 Jan 2018 10:05

A divisional size attack onto the middle of the 80km long al ghab plain from the west would be great...jihadis need to be kept off balance and hit from many directions. this widens their internal cracks as HTS has lions share of resources and manpower and deprives the smaller formations of support.


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 14 Jan 2018 10:38

off the above page -> this sounds like a successor to the tracked TOS1. should unleash a ungodly amount of devastation in true scorched earth russian style

watch with sound on high but windows closed :)



====
Russia’s Splav Research and Production Association has started developing a prototype of the next-generation wheeled-chassis heavy flame-throwing system dubbed Tosochka, CEO of Techmash Holding Company Vladimir Lepin said on Friday.

“The Splav Research and Production Association is carrying out work to develop a prototype of the Tosochka new-generation heavy flame-throwing system for preliminary trials. The system with the improved characteristics will be mounted on a wheeled chassis,” he said.

In 2017, Splav launched the Proryv (Breakthrough) project as part of its investment program to expand its production capacities. Under the new project, the Enterprise acquired a new workshop intended to go into operation in 2019. The new workshop will launch the serial production of shells for the latest Tornado-S multiple launch rocket system, the Techmash chief executive said.

Simultaneously, Splav will engage in a new area of production to roll out fighting and transporter-loader vehicles. The project will enable Splav to switch from experimental to serial production. The Enterprise’s new workshop will also launch the production of shells for Grad multiple launch rocket systems. Source: TASS

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Jan 2018 15:31

Idlib has accumulated a nice collection of the IS/FSA/AQ. Very little hope of rescuing any innocents there.
BTW, did "NATO" use B-52s over Raqqa? Apparently impressed the heck out of Gen. Vodkov.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 14 Jan 2018 21:16

Heavy battles ongoing between tigers and hts/darrat izza/turkestan islamic party in idlib

The jihadis are attacking the left flank of the offensive where it reaches up to abu duhur and tigers and 5th corps are blocking.
Villages are changing hands multiple times

Taking advantage of this the saa has moved fwd in
Sw aleppo front and captured a large are as posted
In maps above

Atleast 50 villages are being fought over

Tactical aviation and good long range arty is much needed

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 14 Jan 2018 22:05

Reports of chlorine gas used by aq last night

Every flyable ruaf and syaf plane is over southern idlib to help

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 14 Jan 2018 22:07

A guderian or rommel with appropriate division but stage out of south aleppo, through el eis anc head straight for head of serpent in idlib city

Or go through southern al ghab plain and hit the hts on their backside

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Shanmukh » 15 Jan 2018 06:40

@Singha,
You have done a phenomenal job tracking the Syro-Iraqi war. Assuming that Idlib falls, is it the end of the revolt in Syria? Is there anywhere else they can take green buses & continue fighting? Or will the next set of green buses be to France & UK? What comes next for the alphabet soup rebel organisations?


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