Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Mar 2018 07:50

houthis down a uav using R27 aam in sam mode

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/statu ... 5562921986

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Mar 2018 07:52

Минобороны России
@mod_russia
Mar 20
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Sergei #Shoigu: over the past five days, 79,655 people have been evacuated via the humanitarian corridors from the Eastern Ghouta.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Mar 2018 07:53

muraselon.com

The second batch of militants and their families are expected to be transported from the East Ghouta region to the Idlib Governorate tomorrow, the Syrian military reported this afternoon.

According to the report, over 1,500 militants from Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham and 6,000 of their family members are expected to be transported from Harasta to the Idlib Governorate on Thursday morning.

The militants and their families will be transported in two batches to the Idlib Governorate; this will be supervised by the Syrian Red Crescent Society.

The Syrian military offered to allow the 1,500 militants to stay in the East Ghouta region; however, they would have to turn in their weapons and settle their cases with a reconciliation committee – the militants refused.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Mar 2018 10:38

Amazing the Houthis could hit a Saudi F-15 with a make shift R-27 IR variant converted to G2A

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3130444.html

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Mar 2018 10:42

The conversion although very rudimentary i.e to convert R-27 from A2A to G2A is not a simple task either.

They will have to re-caliberate the missile software for G2M from A2A missile which means they need access to SW codes , Then you need a firecontrol system that would do some kind of MCG hence data link till the IR locks to the target. Both this task is not trivial

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 22 Mar 2018 10:45

Do you think that it was the Iranians who did the conversion backed by Ru assistsnce? When was the hit on the KSA F-15 ?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Mar 2018 11:15

Philip wrote:Do you think that it was the Iranians who did the conversion backed by Ru assistsnce? When was the hit on the KSA F-15 ?

Not sure who did it and not the first them hauthis did , Seems yesterday the F-15 was shot , march 21 but I wont vouch for the date

R-27 is a widely deployed weapons and of 80's origin , I have seen in past R-73 and R-60 got converted to Ground launch variant but R-27 is a first here .....Necessity is mother of all invention !

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Mar 2018 11:31

Another one just 2 months back , Check the FLIR video of Saudi F-15 kill

Yemen’s Houthis Claim Saudi F-15 Kill with SAM Over Capital City of Santis

https://theaviationist.com/2018/01/09/y ... -of-sanaa/

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 22 Mar 2018 19:54

What's it range? Do you think that we too could reverse its role with the ample stocks we have for our QRSAM,esp. if it can shoot down an F-15?!

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 23 Mar 2018 03:24

Looks like Ghouta's crumbling, and still no US strike. Did Russian Gen. Rudskoy avert this attack? A few days ago he detailed to the media exactly how the CIA was going to carry out their false flag gas attack: https://www.rt.com/news/421589-us-prepa ... irstrikes/

Unsurprisingly, that Russian general's comments were subjected to a news blackout by all major world media. Anyway I still really wonder if the US\Jews\Sunni bloc are finally going to get tired of not getting their way in Syria, and just attack in force. They could do an enormous amount of damage to the Syrian regime and its non-Russians allies on the ground, especially if the IDF jumps in fully. This would embolden Turkey to attack on all fronts, and would spell doom for the Syrian regime, in the sense that Russia's limited help would no longer be enough. Russia would have no choice: abandon Syria or face war with the US\Israeli\Turkish\Saudi\Jordanian militaries, which can only end in disaster from the Russian point of view. By that I mean the war can have only two outcomes: Russian military soundly beaten (and humiliated), leading to withdrawal and strategic defeat, likely leading to unrest in Russia itself, and weakening the country long term. Or Russian conventional defeat followed by nuclear war (probably starting with desperate Russian use of tactical nukes and escalating from there). Either outcome (conventional defeat or nuclear war) is a disaster for Russia. Hence they don't want this war.

Russia appears to be much more sane (or more cowardly, depending on your point of view) than most of us expected. When the Turks shot down one of their planes, Russia did nothing but we chalked it up to pragmatism and assumed they wouldn't tolerate any more direct attacks on theirs armed forces. We already knew Russia could live with its personnel getting killed by non-state actors, but we figured they had a red line when it came to other nations directly attacking their forces.

Then, a few days ago, after testing the waters with a series of smaller military actions over the past couple of years, the US brazenly ambushed and clobbered what they clearly knew to be a Russian unit operating in Syria, killing scores of Russian citizens. Russia did absolutely nothing, and indeed worked hard to cover it up. The US, Isreal and Turkey are clearly feeling very emboldened since that incident, as the tone of their threats and their military movements indicate. They now realize Putin, and Russians in general, are actually quite sane and unwilling to risk war over Syria.

If this assumption is true, then what's stopping the US bloc? It seems to me they hold 99% of the cards here.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Mar 2018 03:56

Yanquis no likee boots on glound. Yanqui also know not who flend or foe is .Always supporting both sides.Flend today, foe tomollow.Ask Kurdie turdies.
Yanquis can't aim stlaight too.Always hitting weddin
g parties in Aghanistan and civirians everywhere! Musrims no likee yanquis for that. Yanquis arso have useress partners, like Saudis. That's why Yanquis usually reave with tail between regs reaving cuntly in chaos!

Lussians biding time with Surtan.Climea and Brack Sea velly important, Lussia's borders.Getting Surtan's boots engaged on the glound in northern Syllia will keep him ple-occupied and stuck in desert sand .Vlad-the-Bad vurture is a patient
bird!

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 23 Mar 2018 04:10

Ghouta is a political showpiece. White helmets, wailing 8-year-old Banas, etc. Useful for tear-jerking propaganda and human-riots atrocity literature but not much more. USAF airstrikes will only muddy the waters of that propaganda, because it relies on copious imagery of RuAF and SAAF planes dumping munitions on city blocks.

The major pressure from the US on Assad is via the slivers their pet jihadis occupy around Al-Tanf and Sayda... commandeering the highways to Baghdad and Amman respectively. These cut off key overland trade routes for Assad, and in the case of Al-Tanf, the primary land corridor to Shia allies in Iraq and Iran further along.

If SAA heads for those enclaves the USAF strikes will come, hard and heavy.

The second priority for the Americans is making sure the territories north and east of the Euphrates, controlled by their SDF proxies, remain out of Assad's hands. The killing of Russian SF units happened at this line: between Deir Ezzour (Assad-controlled) and Al-Tabiyeh (SDF-controlled). Presumably this was a push eastwards by SAA in combination with Russians (the Kremlin now says they were mercenaries or contractors) and the USAF retaliated with an airstrike.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 23 Mar 2018 06:18

Indeed this gets back to what I said at least a year ago, that the Syrians were already screwed when the US got itself entrenched in those areas. At the time I said the US had already won by cutting off those highways. At the very least, I expect the goal of the coming US strikes will be to continue that mission, sealing off the entire Syrian-Iraq border in its entirety.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Mar 2018 08:16

screwed is a relative word...yes the former boundaries of syria will probably never be restored again.....but the pandora's box is unpredictable...suppose the usa arranges for the syrian kurds to declare a rojava state and gives a seat in the UN....this will inevitably set a domino effect in iraq and eastern turkey as a newly emboldened kurd leadership escalates the game vs erdogan and baghdad. kirkuk and erbil has plenty of oil and their "SDF" all-lies are sitting on the Al omar oil field east of dez. but they lack a seaport...well so does mongolia and CAR stans. erdogan will come after them but to what extent?

israel will ally with such a bantustan state to keep iranian moves in check. but israel is in no position to fund proto states being dependent on US arms aid to run its vast military complex.

assad might strike a deal with the Idlib crowd and threaten to export them all over unless his interests are protected. pakistan plays that game endlessly, so why not assad.

socially and economically there seems a huge diff between the prosperous elite coastal syrians and the interior rural arabs....very stark if one looks at pix...like mumbai elites feasting on fine foods while half starved farmers struggle in interior.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Mar 2018 08:27

AL tanf has been ring fenced by militias to contain its expansion. and once the areas near damascus are cleared by Govt, whoever is sitting there in hopes of staging a comeback/loot will lose hope and migrate away to turkey, jordan and east of euphrates for a better life than sitting in the hot desert.

for optics and showing resolve its very important that ghouta and daraa be soundly thrashed and cleared to crush all hopes of the rebels. and that is what assad is doing.

neither the iraqis will co-operate and blocade the border or allow proxies to run around on their side. they are already pissed a large ISIS "reservation" has been created on nineveh border

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Mar 2018 09:10

I predict Iraqi oil to eventually flow through a pipeline to the Meditt. which will join a Syrian oilport for its own exports.Who knows, the pipeline may even connect up with Iran later on, screwing the Saudis.

habal · Post by **habal** » 23 Mar 2018 09:44

Russia can attack 'an important US ally' with big nukes, not tactical nukes and that will ensure world peace for a couple of decades till USA slowly massages its balls back into shape. Attacking with big nukes at the first are important because using tactical nukes will only lead to bigger response in an attempt to establish supremacy. Limited presence on ground and supporting role can only mean this end result. That is why hesitation from USA side and Russian side, else either would have bombed opposition into atoms long ago. Russia is not as weak as you portray it, they seem to be showing the world, yes if they have suffered a high cost and that is what will result in the disproportionate retaliation. USA knows what Russians are cooking and thus centcom confirmed with Russians if they had any troops on ground before bombing and Russians for some reason replied in negative.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Mar 2018 15:02

Dozens of buses daily plying the green route from ghouta to idlib with jihadis and families
Fearing shame they use back roads and slink away

Feelers are out from remaining bands to talk to russians and get the bailout deals signed

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Mar 2018 15:02

Ghouta major battles are probably ove

Daraa could be next stop

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Mar 2018 05:55

SAA fighting through wadi ayn terma farms on south pocket.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Mar 2018 05:56

hasrata is liberated. all have left in the green buses.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Mar 2018 05:57

its the small green pocket in middle...gone now

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Mar 2018 05:58

Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
Mar 22
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#Russia informed all allies in #Syria to take all precautions in case Trump decides to please MBS (the man paid many billions & should be satisfied with tens of Tomahawks) by hitting #Syrian Army and objectives in #Damascus. #Russia deployed its anti-air missiles just in case.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Mar 2018 06:00

@IvanSidorenko1
6h6 hours ago
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#Syria #Damascus #EastGhouta #EasternGhouta #East_Ghouta
departure of 75 busses yesterday & today with 4198 people inside of them, 1326 of them are militants & 111 are leaders of militants groups for the agreement to transfer the militants & their families from harasta to idlib

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Mar 2018 06:00

More
#Syria #Damascus #EastGhouta #EasternGhouta #East_Ghouta #Eastern_Ghouta
Syrian News Channel Reporter Says the Reports of 3,500 people who were Kidnapped/detained by Militants being released is wrong. He says the Numbers WILL BE “HIGHER” then 3,500

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Mar 2018 06:02

@IvanSidorenko1
9h9 hours ago
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#Syria #Damascus #EastGhouta
Faylaq Al Rahman Militiant Group command announces by the tongue of its spokesman Wael Elwan officially the surrender of militants in Jobar, Zamalka, Ayn Tarma and Irbeen. The launching point will be in Irbeen town at Ghubayr mosque ahead to Idlib

@IvanSidorenko1
9h9 hours ago
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#Syria #Damascus #EastGhouta : its decided that SAA will liberate tonight 3000 kidnapped who were captured by militants in Douma In addition to lifting 3000 humanitarian conditions as well according to the terms of the agreement set between Syrian government & militants in Douma.

Jobar, Ayn Tarma , Zamalka, Arbin -
- All kidnapped are handed to the Syrian state
- Surrendering medium and heavy weapons
- Surrendering maps of mines to the state
- Execution begins Saturday at 9am

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Mar 2018 06:03

if the agreement holds today its all over - except perhaps some jaish al islam holdouts in douma.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Mar 2018 09:18

After a day of cathartic looting , afrin is quiet
Erdogan has reined in his boys quietly

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Mar 2018 09:30

https://twitter.com/garoukike/status/97 ... 88640?s=21

Putin sings the national anthem with a stadium of people.
The tune of their anthem evokes a field of wildflowers on the steppe in my mind... and vast military hordes on the march accompanied by long missile telars

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 24 Mar 2018 09:38

The Tiger broke their back in less than 02 months. These pests laid waste to many lives and homes for all these years and seemed impossible to beat. However, a determined army and a good leader made all the difference.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Mar 2018 14:24

The repub guard had lost a lot of men in fruitless attacks on the western defences. Tiger broke their back from the east and rolled them up using small agile units of tanks ifv and seasoned men and his artillery though small is precise and well drilled

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Mar 2018 19:57

Singha wrote:houthis down a uav using R27 aam in sam mode

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/statu ... 5562921986

I wonder why iaf never experimented with forget deployed it’s Bvr and wvr stock in Sam mode

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Mar 2018 21:01

Erdogan: The West has been an aggressor throughout history

https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/11328817.shtml

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Ankara's intention to continue the operation in Syria can not be considered "aggressive". This is reported by Anadolu .

"It is the West that throughout history has repeatedly manifested itself as an invader and aggressor," Erdogan said.

He also added that Turkey "will not leave unanswered calls" of the Syrians and will continue the military operation in the region.

Earlier it was reported that Erdogan, in a conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron, was outraged by his position on Africa .

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Mar 2018 02:48

Singha wrote:https://twitter.com/garoukike/status/97 ... 88640?s=21

Putin sings the national anthem with a stadium of people.
The tune of their anthem evokes a field of wildflowers on the steppe in my mind... and vast military hordes on the march accompanied by long missile telars

OK I gotta watch The Hunt for Red October now. ...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PUvS_htXD34

kit · Post by **kit** » 25 Mar 2018 03:55

Austin wrote:Another one just 2 months back , Check the FLIR video of Saudi F-15 kill

Yemen’s Houthis Claim Saudi F-15 Kill with SAM Over Capital City of Santis

https://theaviationist.com/2018/01/09/y ... -of-sanaa/

Interesting .. there goes the F 15 s chequered history of never being shot down in combat !!

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 25 Mar 2018 04:57

Austin wrote:In Syria, a truck with foreign weapons was intercepted for militants

Has to be trucks. Cant fit all the things shown in a single mid sized truck shown in the beginning of the video.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 25 Mar 2018 07:55

Austin wrote:Earlier it was reported that Erdogan, in a conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron, was outraged by his position on Africa .

LOL oops.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Mar 2018 08:08

I would have thought that an IR guided R-27 would be autonomous and need no extra fiddling after launch. Houthis would have Iranian and maybe Russian engineers advising them. This was clearly WVR. When missiles come free from aid givers - all sorts of experiments are possible...

That video was clearly staged with multiple cameras. Haven't been following - but have Saudis admitted damage to an F-15?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Mar 2018 10:11

Pentagon Budget for Syria

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Mar 2018 10:18

shiv wrote:I would have thought that an IR guided R-27 would be autonomous and need no extra fiddling after launch. Houthis would have Iranian and maybe Russian engineers advising them. This was clearly WVR. When missiles come free from aid givers - all sorts of experiments are possible...

That video was clearly staged with multiple cameras. Haven't been following - but have Saudis admitted damage to an F-15?

Shiv , Probably you are right the IR Seeker Head of R-27 guided it to the target all the way , I dont see any reference to MCG for R-27 except for SARH variant. That would still need the missile to have some ground based cuing system and conversion of software to tell itself to launch in SAM mode.

Ukraine is offereing a ground launched variant of R-27

I dont read Saudi every admitting ever of any loss unless we see those houthis video claiming to be saudi kill