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Levant crisis - III

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Cain Marko
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Cain Marko » 04 Feb 2017 23:38

^bound to happen when putin becomes friendly with trump and erdogan all at once. Iran better watch out.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 05 Feb 2017 10:51

Iran is the only capable Russian allay in the region and Putin wont give its may be handful of allies in the region for mercurial Trump or Erdogan both men are quite capable of changing their policy literally over night.

I dont expect and think Russia US relation would see any drastic improvement under DT , just that it would be less confrontational mainly because DT does not carry the ideological baggage of Leftist obama and both are center right party in their own country ( Rep & Putins party )

I think they would manage to have a working relation with DT like they had with GWB and Bill Clinton

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 05 Feb 2017 11:26

DT does not personally have an axe to grind against Iran , like he says about China Raping US in Trade.

If any thing Iran has given big business to US with Boeing signing $15 billion Aircraft Deal that would mean thousands of jobs for US and Trump.

It is the Israel lobby lead by extreme right wing Netanyahu who is against Iran Nuclear Deal is pushing DT and his team to Punish Iran for their own Agenda , They could not push the previous adminstration to bomb Iran and was very against the Nuclear deal.

What Netanyahu wants is simple US should Bomb Iran to Stone Age and should lead from Front and Israel will back any adminstration that does that and even co-opt Saudi as Saudi Sunni Ummah wants the same.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 05 Feb 2017 15:20

i can understand the Iranians getting disillusioned. They and their Hezbollah allies have arguably done far more to win this war than the Russians and their limited air campaign. While the Russian air strikes (and more importantly their presence blocking US strikes) have provided a tremendous morale boost, it's Iranian troops and Hezbollah that have appear to have made the real, decisive difference on the ground. They've certainly sacrificed far more, losing thousands of KIA. Meanwhile the Russians have gotten all the glory while Iran and Hezbollah get none of the credit.

And now the Iranians see themselves being sold down the river as Putin, Erdogan and Trump cozy up. No wonder they're reticent about letting the Russians base from Iran.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 05 Feb 2017 15:40

^^ Before Russian Armed Forces came into picture , We were all discussing here that Assad just had Damascus and its outskirts to defend and wont last beyond 3-6 months at best.

Its only the Russian Airpower that had turned the tide with thousand of targets attacked and thousand of sorties , many SF operations and the untold EW war that broke the communication backbone of Rebels and IS.

Hizb/Iranians were fighting with Assad since 2011 but over the period of time they lost more then they won , Its only under the leadership of Russian Armed Forces that the Syrian Armed Forces , Iranians Hizb became a coherent fighting force.

No one is taking any credit from Irans , Hizb and Iraqi Shia supporting Assad and Syrian own Armed forces but Russian Leadership Mattered After All.

Plus the Russians deterred any external inteference from outside party in the war either by Air or Naval by openly stating Russia would defend any attack which was also a key factor for Sunni Ummah and US to do any thing stupid.

Syrian Negotiations already involves Iran , Turkey and Russian on the table..... Even the Iraqi helped a lot in stabilising the situation in favour of Assad

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 05 Feb 2017 17:17

Trump does not seem to have grasped the Shia-Sunni historic lovefest, at least from tweets. If he chooses to grasp that, he can swiftly ally with Iran and Syria, and hammer the KSA-Turkey-TSP axis. Turkey is already in "hearts and minds" mode with Putin so collapse of the KSA cartel can be swift.

Trump also needs to ally with Iran to checkmate Chinese interests in the Gelf. Otherwise a kissing contest in the South China Sea will swiftly degenerate into a Persian Gulf closing. Once he gets better relations with Iran, both China and North Korea lose their foothold. Their entry into North Africa/East Africa is not sustainable without Persian Gulf footholds.

Sooner or later he will realize these things. Trouble is that Mattis might get them into war with Iran long before that due to his personal grudge after his musharraf got kicked by the Iranians and he got drummed out of the US Marines.

DT's backpedalling on the Settlements is very encouraging. Plus his campaign promise about shifting Embassy to Jerusalem. He can very well hold these two carrots out for Nut&Yahoo to get them to back down vs. Iran.

Iran has just stepped back from confrontation by reversing visa denial to the US Wrestling Team (may be more due to the Fed Judge and pressure from the International Wrestling Federation goons). The injunction against the travel ban gives them a nice face-saving reason to cite reciprocity while taking the High Gryaund. .

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 05 Feb 2017 20:03


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 10:41

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/br ... di-arabia/

houthis have struck a military base near riyadh with a scud
Update 1: More information has emerged, suggesting that the missile was a variant of a Russian Scud, known as the “Borkan” surface-to-surface missile.

Update 2: Sources indicate that the missile struck a military base West of Riyadh, in Mazahimiyah.

Update 3: On social media, a Saudi attempts to cover-up the attack, saying that the sound of the explosion in Riyadh was an earthquake or meteor.

Update 4: Co-Founder of Mona Relief, a Yemeni charity, Dr. RS Karim, has reported that his contacts in Riyadh told him that a state of emergency has been declared.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 10:46

- new attacks on deir azzor airport beaten off
- one boat sunk on euphrates in al-jafra area of deir azzor , laden with isis troops
- in east homs the saa+hezbollah are jointly going after the oil and gas fields first rather than waste time on palmyra right now. these supply gas to the coast and are in need of repair after isis set them on fire and dynamited the bottling and treatment plants.
- in al-bab the saa has curved around to the east , on the outskirts, to cut off the supply lines from raqqa side ... turks continue to suffer badly.
- euphrates shield ph3 - more areas NW of raqqa liberated by SDF
- east ghouta offensive is in initial stages by saa - this is to wipe the last green pocket east of damascus
- large demos in idlib and rural aleppo in support of HTS - the new coalition led by nusrats
- repub guard and hezbollah have started nibbling south of deir hafr - maybe the idea is surprise pincer to close around deir hafr if tiger forces abandons the turks and curves south rather than north lol

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 13:28

http://www.geopolmonitor.com/us-backed- ... army-isis/
US-backed Kurdish militia to work with Syrian army against ISIS

The Syrian government has agreed on joint actions with the US-backed Kurdish militia group, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

by GEOPOLMonitor Staff
3 days ago

Syrian Democratic Forces
Units of the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) attacked the northern approaches to the besieged Deir Ezzor city on Wednesday, and seized a number of oil facilities and other Islamic State (IS) positions.

According to a Syrian military source, the authorities agreed with the US-backed militia to coordinate operations against the self-proclaimed Islamic State, following a number of assaults by the extremists aimed at taking control of the city in the northeast of Syria.

Scores of civilians and soldiers have been killed in the fresh assault by the organisation, while hundreds of residents were kidnapped as militants took over villages on the city’s outskirts.

Russia has sent heavy bombers, several times in the last week, to launch around one hundred airstrikes in an effort to fight off ISIS militants, targeting arms dumps and factories in the area.
The aim of the fresh coordination between the Syrian military and the Kurdish militia is reportedly aimed at freeing from the control of ISIS, the road between beleaguered military airbase and the 137th Brigade base outside the city. This would allow for a consolidation of Syrian army operations against terrorists, and allow for easier insertion of reinforcements from other parts of the country.

In response to the request of the Syrian General Army Command, the SDF reportedly transferred its most well-armed forces to help defend the surrounded enclave. On Wednesday, the Kurdish militia moved in jeeps armed with machine guns, and seized a number of oil facilities, harassing ISIS positions in the northern sector of Deir Ezzor.

Last week, paratroopers from the 104th Brigade of the Syrian army’s Republican Guard expelled terrorists in the cemetery area of the Deir Ezzor, thwarting efforts by militants to break the defense of the city.

The news of coordination between the Syrian military and the SDF militia comes after the US-backed delivery of armored vehicles to the Kurdish group last week.

Washington has supplied the SDF with weapons and special-forces advisers in the past and has provided close air support against Islamic State fighters.
Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 13:34

so it looks like the wrath of euphrates ph3 is from the east to head for the river and cut off raqqa from deir azzor and al qaim belt where a vast horde of isis are positioned.

more confirmation from kurdish twitterers:
Rojava ‏@AzadiRojava 13h13 hours ago
3000 Arabs join SDF for the fight in Raqqa. Their cmndr Muhedi Jayila talks abt their goals: liberating Raqqa & Deir Ezzor
via AraNews

Vadar Rashavay ‏@VadarRashavay 13h13 hours ago
More
@AzadiRojava this man is saying they don't belong to SDF but there's a strong coordination between their force & SDF, hopefully SDF succeed
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 13:36

the video is here with subtitles. the commander says they participated with SDF in 1st and 2nd phase and ready now for 3rd phase. says his men are from deir azzor province and looking forward to fighting and liberating their home town.
https://twitter.com/AzadiRojava/status/ ... 7927474176

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 13:39

SDF asking for more weapons. the US supplied 4x4 seems to have run flat tires and look good https://goo.gl/jNsYJ5
Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Feb 4
SDF advances north of Deir Ezzor relieve pressure on SAA defending the city from Daesh
Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 13:42

Iraqi PMU English ‏@pmu_english Feb 3
More
#BREAKING - #Iraqi #PMU begin operations to cleat entire area between West #Mosul and our #Ezidi fighters in #Sinjar from #ISIS

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 13:44

battle of Tal afar is yet to begin in right earnest...PMU is sanitizing many outlying hamlets and looking to launch pincers east and west of the town. the north is alleged to be held by kurds but no sign of them so far.

thing about ISIS is you bypass any of their hamlets held by penny packets and they wont lose morale and melt away into the bush but hang in there in a cave or hut, surviving on dried beetles and rat meat if needed , not take a bath or haircut for 2 years and STILL put up a fight when you come again......they are just like a persistent sore. making IEDs and car bombs is their cottage industry, anyone not using a rifle is set to work making bombs.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 14:13

if the arab tribes can force open a corridor to deir azzor, its game over for ISIS zombies camped around the town there. syrians/russians would no doubt fly a couple of batallions to eastern syria and then move them by truck to deir azzor. supply of food, water, medicines could commence by road under UN and ammo and artillery/tanks to the defenders.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 14:51

statement by yemeni missile forces on the strike
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C38Dj4-W8AEEhJt.jpg

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 14:52

Ali ‏@Ali_Kourani 11h11 hours ago
Correction: targeted area is ~40km away from Riyadh, around 1200km away from Yemen.

Majd Fahd ‏@Syria_Protector 11h11 hours ago
Majd Fahd Retweeted نجد والحجاز
Saudi citizen reports that the explosion sound of the Yemeni missile was just like an earthquake or a falling meteor.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 14:53

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C32XyRdWEAAfFfX.jpg
Yusha Yuseef ‏@MIG29_ Feb 4
More
Abo Hani Al-Masri , Egyptian , military commander in Ahrar ALsham
killed by US Drone strike in Sarmada in Edlib CS

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 14:58

SDF is asking for tanks, but the US only has abrams which is ponderous, expensive to keep and needs a lot of training to use well.

Assad could step in and provide a few dozen rough and ready T55/t72 type crates to build aman ki aasha there. SDF will have ex-SAA types who know how to handle soviet tanks. and assad can send in a few trainers too.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 15:05

if you look at syria map and match that to the southfront report which I posted, the distance from qamishli SyAF base to deir azzor is around 350km after skirting a bit of isis held raqqa to maximise time over sdf held areas.

the Mi17v with its payload of people on way in and payload of wounded on outbound -- could not refuel in deir azzor as no store of aviation fuel left there or whatever is left for the local AF unit is being husbanded for when jabal thardeh is recaptured and flights can resume. it has a range of 800km with the 2 external fuel tanks. so its barely adequate.

if assad could explore setting up a forward helicopter base and Il76 capable field airstrip in ash shahdadi his task will be much easier...in exchange for tanks and artillery help

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 17:51

the devils even have drones and use that to film vbied attacks and air to air of other drones. they even drop a small grenade

https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=89d_1486076223

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby IndraD » 06 Feb 2017 22:39

West Mosul update
West Mosul offensive is likely to start this month, reinforcements are being sent to draw pontoon bridge across Tigris river. Mean while IS are smashing holes in the house of residents to use them as thorough fare and us families as human shields
Cash-strapped jihadists punching holes in people's homes to move across west Mosul undetected are now asking victims to pay for the labour, several residents said Sunday.

The fee is a modest 7,000 Iraqi dinars (around five US dollars) but adds insult to injury, said residents of Mosul's west bank, where the Islamic State group is digging in for a planned offensive by the Iraqi security forces.

"Daesh is smashing holes in the walls of our homes without giving us a choice," said a resident of an area known as "Pepsi street" who gave his name as Abu Asaad, using an Arabic acronym for IS.

"And they are forcing residents to pay 7,000 dinars to the workers who just destroyed their homes," said Abu Asaad, who was among what he said were hundreds who had suffered the same fate.

He said IS members told affected residents that the generated income would contribute to financing their defence of west Mosul against the security forces.

Iraqi forces last month secured full control of the city's eastern half, marking the end of an important phase in the broad offensive launched on October 17 to retake the last major jihadist stronghold in the country.

"They gave us a choice to stay in our homes with the walls or leave," said Abu Asaad, who would not give his full name for fear of IS reprisals.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2017 22:50

So even more of a rats maze with a ak47 or rpg zeroed in from every hole plus lakhs of civilians

Going to be hellacious

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 07 Feb 2017 02:14

Wasn't a problem in 1944.... or in 2003. One Bee fitty-2 flies over and there's a nice km-wide parking-lot to roll through

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 07 Feb 2017 02:16


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby IndraD » 07 Feb 2017 05:24

In a peculiar war ongoing in Al bab: Syrian army is in a hurry to reach and encircle Al Bab. At the same time Turkey backed rebels are (FSA) fighting IS while Russia is bombing IS in Al Bab on behalf of both Sy army & Turkey backed rebels. An uneasy peace exists for now between Sy & Tu backed forces and Ru is acting as buffer. Bigg offensive to start in Al bab any time.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/i ... 06993.html

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Feb 2017 07:39

compared to the PMU the SDF hardly has any great eqpt - despite so called nato support. they are even using captured isis vbied as transport in another video i saw


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Feb 2017 07:45

PRESS RELAESE # 20170201
Some media outlets have recently claimed that the International Coalition Against Daesh, led by the United States, has provided the People’s Defense Units (YPG) with armored vehicles and personnel carriers. As the YPG, we reject such reports which are inaccurate; our forces, in the context of the fight against Daesh, have not received any sort of advanced weaponry from the International Coalition.

Spokesperson for the People’s Defense Units, Rêdûr Xelîl
February 1, 2017

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Feb 2017 07:52

POTUS attended a meeting yesterday in mcdill air force base tampla florida CENTCOM hq, attended by socom also, it is likely he was briefed on first cut of the new middle east war plan . gens votel c-in-c, dunford and thomas.

Image

hopefully the full power of the usaf will be unleashed soon. ISIS is holding firm on so many fronts its amazing.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Feb 2017 07:54

UlanBatori wrote:Wasn't a problem in 1944.... or in 2003. One Bee fitty-2 flies over and there's a nice km-wide parking-lot to roll through


well this time killing 10,000 civilians is not on the menu. mostly they are sunnis on the western side I think, just a stick for the GCC to beat up the iraqis with alleging "war crimes by shia sectarian gangs"

by opening holes and tunnels between thickly packed houses, ISIS has created a plan to avoid the narrow roads which will be rigged with mines and IED and targeted from all sides, while using the network of impassable alleys and holes in houses to move around quickly in the grid and use civilians as implicit human shields.

they would have prestocked and dispersed their ammo and RPGs into 100s of different caches in this rats nest of secret paths and tunnels.

I am not sure whats a great plan to manage this. perhaps a swift and brutal armour thrust from all directions will actually minimize civilian body count in the end, but there will be 100s dead for sure.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Feb 2017 08:02


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Feb 2017 11:43

Al-Masdar News ‏@TheArabSource
Video: Over 400 suspected #ISIS members arrested in #Turkey https://aml.ink/R6GEj

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Feb 2017 11:44

Desert hawks moving to east homs and palmyra front to lead offensive.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Feb 2017 13:52

Foxnews

What passes for a “warning” sign in Mosul is the rotting, charred, fly-infested corpse of a dead ISIS fighter lying in open view on the street, a live, unexploded suicide belt lying precariously nearby.

The Iraqi army believes it’s a lot more effective than a big yellow triangle

“We will leave the terrorist there,” soldier Ibrahim Mohamed told Reuters. “The message is clear to Iraqis, to keep them from joining or supporting [ISIS]. This will be your fate. The Iraqi army will finish you off.”

The army’s psychological weapon comes with drawbacks too: The dead bodies are health hazards and the bombs lying in the street could still go off.

It’s a risk the Iraqi army is willing to take.

“We leave them in the street like that so the dogs eat them” Asaad Hussein told Reuters. “We also want the citizens to know there is a price for supporting terrorists.”

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby LokeshC » 07 Feb 2017 13:57

Singha wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:Wasn't a problem in 1944.... or in 2003. One Bee fitty-2 flies over and there's a nice km-wide parking-lot to roll through


well this time killing 10,000 civilians is not on the menu. mostly they are sunnis on the western side I think, just a stick for the GCC to beat up the iraqis with alleging "war crimes by shia sectarian gangs"

by opening holes and tunnels between thickly packed houses, ISIS has created a plan to avoid the narrow roads which will be rigged with mines and IED and targeted from all sides, while using the network of impassable alleys and holes in houses to move around quickly in the grid and use civilians as implicit human shields.

they would have prestocked and dispersed their ammo and RPGs into 100s of different caches in this rats nest of secret paths and tunnels.

I am not sure whats a great plan to manage this. perhaps a swift and brutal armour thrust from all directions will actually minimize civilian body count in the end, but there will be 100s dead for sure.


Russian Art Theater Attack long time back was ended by using some sort of a gas to make people unconscious. Only something like that might work I guess.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Feb 2017 13:59

Not in a open to sky city. That was a confined hall with a.c

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby TSJones » 07 Feb 2017 16:07

Singha wrote:PRESS RELAESE # 20170201
Some media outlets have recently claimed that the International Coalition Against Daesh, led by the United States, has provided the People’s Defense Units (YPG) with armored vehicles and personnel carriers. As the YPG, we reject such reports which are inaccurate; our forces, in the context of the fight against Daesh, have not received any sort of advanced weaponry from the International Coalition.

Spokesperson for the People’s Defense Units, Rêdûr Xelîl
February 1, 2017


there is TRUTH and there is.........well, sorta truth...... :D

the YPG is one strange outfit....their philosopher is this guy (now deceased):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murray_Bookchin

An American Jew and communist women's liberationist. :roll:

real life....can be stranger than fiction. :eek:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/syr ... b28189e3df

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Feb 2017 17:00

they are communist/socialist just like the PKK I guess.

some 200 vehicles have been given out. there are videos on twitter of one being shown off with flashing lights. but perhaps not all factions got them and they are armoured only against small arms, while the YPG wants tanks. it will take months to train up abrams or bradley crews.....if DT wants he can ask the YPG to strike a barter deal with Assad for T-62/T-55/T-72/BMP kit and trainer pkg in exchange for driving south and opening a land corridor to deir azzor

however assad and his elite gang still seem living in a dream world that they will reconquista every inch of syria and roar like a lion and all that....that train left the station a long long time ago. the only thing left to decide now is the dynamics of his relations with kurds and arab tribes who no longer want to be ruled from damascus and a share of the oil/gas/other good stuff like euphrates carp. he sits in the palace in damascus while war profiteers also make some money and young NDF boys take all the risk at the front.

there will be a rebellion and he will be turfed out if he insists on a new war vs the kurds and euphrati arabs post destruction of ISIS. a sane man would take his chips off the table and hightail it right there. fortunately for him, I think Putin is going to lose patience with foot dragging after the end of ISIS and order him to settle accounts or the russians wont support him for the rebuilding

Singha
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Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Feb 2017 17:03

one thing I have not figured out is the phenomenon of western volunteers going off to fight with the YPG. at first I thought they were embedded ex-SOCOM advisory types. but no they are just normal people with a few ex-armymen among them .

can it be the idealistic socialist ideology that drew them to the cause ? its hard to even get where the YPG operates by commercial flights or roads ....


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