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Levant crisis - III

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 05 Jul 2017 19:00

they are nowhere near US self proclaimed deconflict zones. they are right in middle of syria north of T4-palmyra

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 05 Jul 2017 20:55

https://twitter.com/warmediateam/status ... 0478384128

PMU has this amazing huge truck launched MLRS type rocket, with a very short range but looks like a massive warhead...a kind of giant mortar

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 05 Jul 2017 21:08

Russian strategic bombers hit ISIS targets with newest airborne cruise missiles in Syria (VIDEO)

https://www.rt.com/news/395361-russian- ... s-targets/
Russian Air Force Tu-95MS strategic bombers have conducted strikes on Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) positions near the border of Syrian Hama and Homs provinces on Wednesday, the Russian military said in a statement.

“Three large weapon and ammunition stockpiles alongside with a command center near the town of Akerbat were destroyed in the strike, which was confirmed by objective control measures,” the statement reads.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 05 Jul 2017 21:12

they are trying to break the back of this ISIS stronghold due north of the T4-Palmyra axis and a persistent PITA. the desert hawks are going at them from the west and after a period of well earned rest, the tigers might strike from the north to uproot them once and for all.

the kalibrs from the ships and sub hit the same area earlier.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 05 Jul 2017 21:34

Singha wrote:they are nowhere near US self proclaimed deconflict zones. they are right in middle of syria north of T4-palmyra


Which means nothing. The Americans will strike whenever they please and make up some bullsh*t justification later.

This is their modus operandi. The Americans can be counted on to serve their Jew\Saudi masters or at least the needs of the big banks and military industrial complex. Therefore you can count on more aggression in Syria, "deconfliction" zones notwithstanding.

It's clear the US/Jew/Wahabbi combine wants all southern Syria; otherwise why did they deploy HIMARS MLRS units and spec ops there? It sure as hell wasn't meant for ISIS.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 05 Jul 2017 23:17

Y. Kanan wrote:
Singha wrote:they are nowhere near US self proclaimed deconflict zones. they are right in middle of syria north of T4-palmyra


Which means nothing. The Americans will strike whenever they please and make up some bullsh*t justification later.

This is their modus operandi. The Americans can be counted on to serve their Jew\Saudi masters or at least the needs of the big banks and military industrial complex. Therefore you can count on more aggression in Syria, "deconfliction" zones notwithstanding.

It's clear the US/Jew/Wahabbi combine wants all southern Syria; otherwise why did they deploy HIMARS MLRS units and spec ops there? It sure as hell wasn't meant for ISIS.


True at that.

I suspect not far from today we might see a short and swift fight between RuAF and UASF in the region before real negotiations begins. Like those Cuban crisis you dont talk real peace unless you know your survival is at stake

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 05 Jul 2017 23:18

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2017 ... execution/

top daish cleric abu qutaiba executed in tal afar for suggesting that baghdadi is no more

and 50 lashes for anyone who broaches that topic has been proclaimed

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 05 Jul 2017 23:23

Singha wrote:https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201707031055168021-mention-baghdadis-death-equals-execution/

top daish cleric abu qutaiba executed in tal afar for suggesting that baghdadi is no more

and 50 lashes for anyone who broaches that topic has been proclaimed


50 BRF lashes to you Singha jee for sharing that news , AOA :twisted:

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 05 Jul 2017 23:44

:)

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 05 Jul 2017 23:50

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Abdulla Hawez‏Verified account
@abdullahawez
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Map that explain the new Middle East:

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 06 Jul 2017 02:38

If Rojava and Iraqi Kurdistan could ever unite, the resulting country would be a significant little state, with coastal access to the Mediterranean Sea and a lot of oil. But of course if they tried, Turkey would just invade (if the Kurds were standing alone).

The Syrian govt, Iran and Iraq should all strike a deal with the Kurds to support their creation of an independent state, even though it means ceding territory from all 3 nations. In exchange, the Kurds would allow unfettered access between Iran and Syria through their own territory. Win-win for everyone but the US\Jews\Sunnis\Turks.

Why can't the "Shia Crescent" include a Kurdish nation as well? i know Kurds are Sunnis mostly, but they lack the traditional knee-jerk hatred of the Shia. They aren't reactionary about the Sunni-Shia divide like other Sunnis tend to be.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Jul 2017 08:25

>>with coastal access to the Mediterranean Sea

Efrin does not have a coast. Latakia is firmly under assad control, so any coastal access (basra or latakia) has to be negotiated with baghdad and damascus. also between Efrin and the coast is Idlib which is turkish/jihadi owned....the only route from Efrin to coast is a roundabout route via Aleppo and Hama.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Jul 2017 08:30

videos of yesterdays KH101 strikes - pinpoint 10feet CEP accuracy
nature of explosions indicate some ammo storage
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ru ... ria-video/

they were fired from 1000km away probably over western iran rather than a full 3500km which could be right after takeoff from Engels AFB saratov north of the caspian

it seems exercises were scheduled, so they dual tasked it saying why not kill a few jihadis and exercise at same time :D

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Jul 2017 08:35

convoy of new humvees being shipped toward raqqa by massa
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/vi ... sdf-raqqa/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Jul 2017 08:37

Bears can carry 8 ALCM externally, while Blackjack can carry 12(probably internally in 2 rotary launchers)
https://cdn.almasdarnews.com/wp-content ... 07/103.jpg

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Jul 2017 08:43

video aftermath of failed isis attack on PMU - a IFV has been hit by a ATGM and mangled flesh and half-a-daish all over
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/vi ... der-syria/

PMU seem to be pretty good with their atgms.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Jul 2017 08:45

>>If Rojava and Iraqi Kurdistan could ever unite,

thats erdogans nightmare - PKK having a depth area behind it to disappear into and stage from. he has weaned away the barzani clique into his orbit in iraq. the ypg and pkk are close i believe hence his wrath on syrian kurds.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 06 Jul 2017 10:02

Impact of 3 Kh-101 missile fired from Tu-95MS


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 06 Jul 2017 10:04

While the 1st and 3rd missile attacked side ways the 2nd one was a top attack at the target. CEP is like Brahmos

Kh-101 can do 4500 km in Conventional role and 5500 km in nuclear one carries 450 kg warhead.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 06 Jul 2017 10:08

Singha wrote:Bears can carry 8 ALCM externally, while Blackjack can carry 12(probably internally in 2 rotary launchers)
https://cdn.almasdarnews.com/wp-content ... 07/103.jpg


From Yefim Gordon Book on Kh-101 program
The flight testing of the Kh-101 has already been completed. This missile weighs some 2,200 - 2,400 kg , the weight of warhead is 400 kg. According to press reports, the Kh-101 has a maximum range of 5,000-5,500 Km a variable flight profile at altitudes ranging from 30 - 70m to 6000m , a cruising speed of 190-200 m/s and a maximum speed of 250-270m/s. It can well be classed as a low-observable flying vehicle because the radar cross section of the Kh-101 is 0.01 m2. The missile is equipped with an electro-optical system for correcting the flight trajectory and with a TV guidance system for terminal guidance. This ensures the hitting precision with a deviation of some 12- 20m.

The upgraded Tu-95MS can carry eight Kh-101 missiles on four wing pylons. The same missile will also equip the upgraded Tu-160 which will be able to carry six missiles in each of its two weapons bays total of 12 Kh-101 or 102 missile. The highly accurate guidance system of the Kh-101 and its combined HE/fragmentation/penetrating warhead will enable one modernised Tu-160 to fulfil tasks previously achievable with an entire regiment of bombers. The upgraded version of Tu-22M3 is capable of carrying four Kh-101 missiles or six to eight Kh-SD



Compared to Kalbir cruise missile with RCS of 0.1-0.2 m2 the Kh-101 achieving 0.01 RCS would mean they reduced it by 1/10

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 06 Jul 2017 10:16

Singha wrote:>>with coastal access to the Mediterranean Sea

Efrin does not have a coast. Latakia is firmly under assad control, so any coastal access (basra or latakia) has to be negotiated with baghdad and damascus. also between Efrin and the coast is Idlib which is turkish/jihadi owned....the only route from Efrin to coast is a roundabout route via Aleppo and Hama.



That's what I get for not looking closely at the map. In any case, a Kurdish nation of any configuration is a pipe dream. Everybody is against it, allies and enemies alike. The two most powerful players Iran & Turkey are both staunchly opposed as these two countries stand to lose the most territory to an independent Kurdish state. My sense of historical injustice makes me root for the Kurds but sadly, it will never happen.

Great strike footage btw. Have Russian cruise missiles gotten more accurate since 2015?

US is airlifting Jordan-based FSA units to Deir Azzor outskirts as we speak. SAA cannot secure that corridor in time. At this rate the US will have positioned FSA units all over southern Syria within weeks. They'll be there to "fight ISIS", of course, but "deconfliction zones" will be declared all around these units, giving US air cover and arty an excuse to pummel anything that gets close. The entire Syria-Iraq border will soon be cut off, and once there it will be impossible to get those forces out without starting WWIII.

The only counter move that would work is a large deployment of Russian airmobile troops to Deir Azzor and other key spots along the Iraqi border. The Iraqi PMU could link up with them, thus forcing the US to attack Russia and its ally Iraq, which would be politically impossible (probably).

Otherwise, kiss southern Syria goodbye and the "Shia Crescent" with it.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Jul 2017 22:10

seems bags of $$ notes are being thrown at turkey euphrates sword problem.

bands of ephshield merceneries incl a anti-YPG band have either refused to fight or defected to the SDF

a good way to win the battle without a shot. Erdo will have to bring his regular infantry or motivate the idlib jihadis to work.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 07 Jul 2017 03:44

This is Russia's last chance to end this war on favorable terms (ie: Syrian govt in control w/direct land link between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah - the so-called "Shia Crescent"). Anything short of that leaves an isolated Syrian rump state - cutoff from its friends in Iran and Iraq, weak and primed for destabilization. Given everything Russia has poured into this war, this seems an unacceptable outcome. Maybe I'm wrong? Maybe Russia doesn't care about a Shia Crescent and is content to simply keep its bases on the Syrian coast. What do you guys think?

Anyway, the only move at this point is to secure the Syrian-Iraqi border and Deir-Azzor immediately. Neither SAA\NDF nor PMU will reach these areas in time. SDF units, airlifted by the US, will beat them to it. A large Russian airmobile operation is the only play now. This would have to be a few battalions at least. Scores of Russian troops will probably get killed, but they've suffered plenty of fatalities already.

Look at the map. Russia would land forces at Deir Ezzor to ensure it doesn't fall to ISIS. It wouldn't take much; SAA is already managing by themselves. Land a battalion or two at Al Bukamal on the Iraqi border. Coordinate with a push by Iraqi PMU from their side of the border. Keep landing more reinforcements by air. Secure this crossing and hunker down, with Russian and Iraqi units holding the area together. This would make it politically impossible for the US to bomb them. They'd be openly killing their Iraqi allies and starting a war with nuclear Russia at the same time.

Without Deir Azzor or Al-Bukumal, the US wouldn't even bother trying to cutoff the rest of the border as there'd be no point.

With the border secure, Russia and Syria can then redeploy and crush remaining resistance around Damascus, Homs, Idlib, etc. As for Daraa\southwest Syria, that area is lost for good.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2017 07:20

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... sts-syria/

Usa is indeed creating another militia nameplate to fight for deir azzor

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2017 07:23

Brazilian journo blows the lid that some of the seasoned ypg cadre are infact pkk imported from turkey

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... ournalist/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2017 09:38

clue / mystery question for Kanan ji - why do you think despite significant buildup on iraqi side, the persians have not unleashed the PMU across the border east of deir azzor ?

i believe they want the ISIS to remain concentrated and strong along the euphrates for now, while conceding ground to SAA in the desert, so as any new "Al tanf" type creation schemes meet with severe ISIS attacks. if the PMU crosses , ISIS will be pulled off the river to defend , creating a vacuum for the "FSA" to fly in and squat under a nato air cover.

i think PMU will cross approx when SAA are about 40km from the river in strength. they cannot delay it too much, else the SDF will be unleashed from the north to "block" the way to deir azzor though SAA has the advantage of a wide front from the south, hard to block.

tiger forces imo need to move out of Resafa and open a advance to behind Sukhnah to position themselves some 50km away from DEZ. this will also cut some daish supply lines to salamiyah front in the west...the desert hawks are moving forward there, with cold drink in one hand and a 125mm gun at the other, pounding anything from standoff ranges :lol:

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2017 09:50

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sy ... operation/
BEIRUT, LEBANON (4:45 A.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army’s elite Tiger Forces are gearing up for a new offensive after taking a week off from operations following the liberation the Khanasser Plain.

According to a military source, the Tiger Forces have returned to the western countryside of the Al-Raqqa Governorate, where they are expected to launch a new operation against the Islamic State (ISIL).

The source added that the main objective for the Tiger Forces during this upcoming operation is the capture of Sukhnah, which is an Islamic State stronghold surrounded by many gas and oil fields.

If this operation proves successful, the Tiger Forces will at the provincial border of the Deir Ezzor Governorate and in position to lift the 26 month long siege imposed by the Islamic State on the provincial capital.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 07 Jul 2017 10:22

Putin sounds very happy with Kh-101 performance in Syrian war in yesterdays meeting

‘Most advanced & highly reliable’: Putin commends designers of Kh-101 strategic cruise missile


https://www.rt.com/news/395530-strategi ... ile-putin/

President Vladimir Putin has praised the reliability of Russian weaponry, while applauding the developers of the Kh-101 strategic air-to-surface cruise missile which has proven its effectiveness against terrorists in Syria.
Trends

“I would like to thank both the military personnel and the designers and developers of one of our latest missile systems, Kh-101,” Putin said
at a Meeting of the Commission for Military Technical Cooperation with Foreign State

“This missile system has proved highly reliable. It is indeed the most advanced weapon with high precision and capacity, and a range of 4,500 km, which is quite good,” he added, urging defense companies to step up production of modern weapons.

The Kh-101 missile, created by Raduga (Rainbow) Design Bureau, was first battle-tested in Syria in 2015, but the Russian military once again demonstrated its effectiveness on Wednesday, when Tu-95MS strategic bombers fired the missiles on Islamic State targets in Hama and Homs provinces.

Noting the potency of the new missiles with stealth radar-evading features, the Russian Defense Ministry said Wednesday’s precision strikes were carried out “from a distance of about 1,000 kilometers.”

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2017 12:04

https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/stat ... 4149219328

syrians massing for a offensive out of resafa

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 07 Jul 2017 12:27

Singha wrote:clue / mystery question for Kanan ji - why do you think despite significant buildup on iraqi side, the persians have not unleashed the PMU across the border east of deir azzor ?

i believe they want the ISIS to remain concentrated and strong along the euphrates for now, while conceding ground to SAA in the desert, so as any new "Al tanf" type creation schemes meet with severe ISIS attacks. if the PMU crosses , ISIS will be pulled off the river to defend , creating a vacuum for the "FSA" to fly in and squat under a nato air cover.

i think PMU will cross approx when SAA are about 40km from the river in strength. they cannot delay it too much, else the SDF will be unleashed from the north to "block" the way to deir azzor though SAA has the advantage of a wide front from the south, hard to block.

tiger forces imo need to move out of Resafa and open a advance to behind Sukhnah to position themselves some 50km away from DEZ. this will also cut some daish supply lines to salamiyah front in the west...the desert hawks are moving forward there, with cold drink in one hand and a 125mm gun at the other, pounding anything from standoff ranges :lol:


Good points and apparently the SAA agrees with you, as they do indeed look to be gearing up for a big move. But where? Are they headed for Raqqa or Deir Azzor? I hope not Raqqa; the Deir Azzor seige must be lifted and we know the US is trying to insert its 'FSA' units in there. Let the US get a presence there, and they'll never get those f*ckers out.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2017 13:00

Raqqa is not the target and its deconflict zone as well

Saa wants the pot boiling in raqqa to keep sdf tied to it for months

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2017 15:05

Peto Lucem‏ @PetoLucem 14h14 hours ago
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NEW MAP: #SAA launched new attacks and is advancing in east #Hama. Poss. objectives: #ISIS stronghold #Uqayribat and #TallSanimah. #Syria

this is where NDF and desert hawks are presently advancing

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2017 15:07

there are way too many long loopy fronts in syria and thin areas like these where govt has to garrison penny packets of scarce manpower. this is bad for gathering resources to push east.

so the whole 'reconciliation' thing in rebel enclaves in west is to free men to fight in the east.

and offensives like east hama above and closing the khanassir gap which tigers did last week is about shortening and rationalizing the fronts to reduce manpower needs and keep supply roads shorter......to push resources east.

threats to the capital like daraa and jobar and east ghouta also given attention. he cannot afford jihadis in mortar range of damascus which is true even today.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2017 15:16

imo tigers will move 50km from resafa to the unnamed point where the 3 roads meet. to cut daish supply lines and to establish a blocking position behind sukhnah, and about 50km across the desert to deZ
https://www.google.co.in/maps/@35.51096 ... a=!3m1!1e3

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2017 18:49

Sa'ka‏ @BTelawy 4h4 hours ago
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Replying to @BTelawy
#Breaking: Military spox: 40 terrorists killed, 6 pickups destroyed by the Egyptian Forces, and a total of 26 martyred and injured. #Sinai

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 07 Jul 2017 23:50

Turkey plans to establish buffer zone in Idlib with Russian co-operation in co-ordination with Syrian government offensive

http://www.janes.com/article/72137/turk ... -offensive

Key Points

Turkey is likely to seek a leading role in enforcing a future de-escalation zone in Idlib province to ensure its Syrian proxies are represented in Syria's post-war governance, albeit as part of a broader agreement with the Syrian government, mediated by Russia.
The de-escalation zone is likely to come in conjunction with an eventual offensive by the Syrian government in Idlib province, aimed at destroying the Al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist opposition coalition, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), although this is likely only after pro-Syrian government forces have stabilised other higher priority fronts, including Deir al-Zour, on the River Euphrates.
A Turkish Idlib intervention would probably avoid directly targeting HTS, given the risk of this triggering a jihadist insurgency inside Turkey.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Jul 2017 06:46

Right now all factions in idlib are mixed up though zones of geographical dominance exist. It will be tough to separate the nusra hts from the rest

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 08 Jul 2017 11:08

US & Russia agree ceasefire in southwest Syria ‒ Lavrov

https://www.rt.com/news/395632-us-russi ... ire-syria/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Jul 2017 13:24

countours of a plan for north syria imho ...

YPG will leave Efrin which will be DMZ
syrian govt will move in for internal law and order
russians will monitor the border for security from turkiye
in exchange Edro will sheath his euphrates sword
this achieves his goal of not having Efrin as a continguous belt for PKK
rest of north syria is already in his bag

turkiye will pull back its jihadis into some safe zones for political settlement
ruaf will slaughter the rest with support of these sarkari jihadis

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 08 Jul 2017 14:17

Was doing some search on Kaliber weapon , The Russian Model 3M-14 is longer than export model 3M-14E 8.2 meter versus 6.2 m , both are 533 mm class weapon though. ( source http://militaryrussia.ru/blog/topic-818.html )

The 3M-14 has a range of 2500 km and export model 300 km , Export model has warhead weight of 450 kg , Russian one has 500 kg explosive. It flies at a speed of 0.8 M , export model speed 180-240 m / s ( thats like 0.5-0.7 M or export model has 0.1mach speed less )

Over Land Kalbir flies at max altitude of 150 m and Lowest altitude is 50 m so flight range over land is entirely restricted between 50-150 m , Over Sea it travels at 20 m .......I guess over land to it could fly at 20 m but would want to avoid hitting targets like electrical pole or tall buildings.

CEP we know from official MOD figure is 3-5 meter

The longest distance Kalbir has hit in syrian war is 1500 km ( source https://southfront.org/russian-kalibr-vs-us-tomahawk/ )

Video of Kalbir flight over Syria



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