Levant crisis - III

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 18:14

brar_w wrote:There should be a flood of TLAM, JASSM and SCALP images appearing all over the internet and littered all over the Syrian countryside with BF damage etc


They will appear eventually in couple of days or weeks time , Its not necessary that every time intercept took place the debris would fall in big chunk or will fall at a place where one can go quickly and take pictures , even the debris of SAM will fall after intercepting and it would fall at a huge place.

We have not seen even debris of Huge Scud missile which 100's were intercepted by Patriot but we have just seen few picture of intercept of Scud debris , it does not mean the rest of the intercept did not take place just because we saw less than dozen of those 100's of intercepted pictures

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 14 Apr 2018 18:24

Actually what producing 70 missile corpses prove or disprove here and why should syrians bother ?

They survived in good shape. The attack was light, no sead, no followup, no infra was hit ( power, water )

The missile makers have the job of proving or disproving to drive their export sales , not the syrians

They seem to have defended the airbases well being known point targets .... so anything can be stabbed in the final phase when it must home in a small area

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby brar_w » 14 Apr 2018 18:25

Austin wrote:They will appear eventually in couple of days or weeks time


Right but there are alternative theories as well. Last time, when no images appeared of dozens of alleged missiles shot down the theories of some here were that they either just failed and fell in the water or that they were quite snuck out and shipped off to Iran and China. But yeah, it would be very strange if 70+ missiles were downed and we only get images of 3-4 given that many or perhaps, even more, could very easily malfunction or otherwise be redirected.

We have not seen even debris of Huge Scud missile which 100's were intercepted by Patriot but we have just seen few picture of intercept of Scud debris


There is actually quite a lot of images of Scud missile bodies and motors in the area over the last few years. What you do not see a lot of are images of warheads, and warhead impact craters which would naturally be easier to control. But cruise missiles don't separate so if it malfunctions you will have a relatively intact missile (relatively speaking) and if they are intercepted you will have parts with BF damage. Historically, malfunctioned and even downed cruise missiles have been shown and photographed so there is evidence of this form the past. The SCALP image, at a cursory look, provides quite clear cut evidence of the make and type. If more images of it are available one would be able to tell, with reasonable confidence, whether it was struck or not. With ballistic missiles, particularly ones that are highly inaccurate and separating this is trickier as only the warhead is expected to reach within te vicinity of the intended target while the body and motor do not adhere to that trajectory.

Singha wrote:Actually what producing 70 missile corpses prove or disprove here and why should syrians bother ?


No, they shouldn't bother but then they shouldn't bother about providing any claims either but they do. That is clearly not the point. The point was that raiding twitter and posting random claims especially when neither the claim nor the source is verifiable is hardly evidence but of course, folks are welcome to conduct a Social Media analysis.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 18:30

Oh come on show me all the video of the Scud intercepted by Patriots during both Gulf War along with the debris of the Scud fallen ..........We can also ask the cooilation for all the images of the 104 Missile they fired to the target pre and post hit .....then we can go on.

From the Syrian and Russian reaction they seem to be happy they say only 4 person injured so far no life lost ......Putin didnt say any thing other than US violated UN law ....pretty calm reaction compared to the tension pre-strike where all and sundry was claiming WW3 was imminent.

Whats more not a single Russian AD missile was launched at the Cruise Missile because it does not enter into its AD zone according to Ru MOD , even US confirmed not a single Russian AD missile was fired .......So this looked like a over blown hype and turned to be damp squib ....or its just that Syrian AD managed to do its job effectively so the event seems non-event
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 18:32

deleted double post
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 18:33

There is actually quite a lot of images of Scud missile bodies and motors in the area over the last few years.


Ok please post all the lot of images of Scud missile bodies and motors over the last few years and compare it to the claim US made of intercepting Scud , Please show us how each motor images are for a different missile ........ because to be honest I have seen less than half dozen Scud intercept missile photos

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby brar_w » 14 Apr 2018 18:37

Austin wrote:Oh come on show me all the video of the Scud intercepted by Patriots during both Gulf War along with the debris of the Scud fallen .........


I don't need to show that evidence. The Gulf war was over 25 years ago, and there are official reports pointing to the challenges and the lack of overwhelming success of the system given its limitations at the time. There are also acknowledged reports of the system not intercepting cruise missiles even more recently (OIF) and that is via official sources.

Please show us how each motor images are for a different missile ...


This is a classic strawman argument. I am not asking for evidence of 70 missiles having been intercepted i.e. debris pointing to it. But merely stating that so far, all that has shown up is one possible TLAM on the ground (not verified yet whether A) It is even part of a TLAM and B ) It is actually from this particular strike) and one positive SCALP debris. If you are claiming 70+ successful intercepts most would bet that multiple of 2-3 damaged/debris would show up given people are so quick to post stuff on social media which is quickly picked up and posted here. But like I said there are ways even that can be explained as others have tried to do in the past.

All that we have so far are images of debris of two missiles (one alleged but let's assume its one from this strike). We also have claims that 70+ missiles were intercepted and only about 30 struck their targets. Those are the facts that are known. All I am saying is that based on what we know this is what can be claimed on a factual basis despite random twitter posts that do not show what they claim to show.

Must separate the noise from reality especially when you quote a tweet that claims that it is a video showing an intercept. At least watch the video first to determine if it even shows evidence of what it claims to show.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 14 Apr 2018 18:40

The days of idfaf flying manned sorties over syria have ended i guess. For a while mow they have been content to fire lora rockets and popeye missiles from golan and lebanon airspace side

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 18:43

brar_w wrote:I don't need to show that evidence. The Gulf war was over 25 years ago, and there are official reports pointing to the challenges and the lack of overwhelming success of the system given its limitations at the time. There are also acknowledged reports of the system not intercepting cruise missiles even more recently (OIF) and that is via official sources.


You are the one who claimed there are lots of images of Scud Bodies and motors shown over the years , So please so us the lots of images of Scud bodies and motors you claim that are lots of those because I saw less then dozen of those

Please show us all the images or atleast half a dozen of Scud Intercepted during operation Enduring freedom where Patriot intercept was most successful wrt to Scud , its seems atleast 12 were intercepted , so atleast show us 6 images of those intercepted scud

This is a classic strawman argument. I am not asking for evidence of 70 missiles having been intercepted i.e. debris pointing to it. But merely stating that so far, all that has shown up is one possible TLAM on the ground (not verified yet whether A) It is even part of a TLAM and B ) It is actually from this particular strike) and one positive SCALP debris. If you are claiming 70+ successful intercepts most would bet that multiple of 2-3 damaged/debris would show up given people are so quick to post stuff on social media which is quickly picked up and posted here. But like I said there are ways even that can be explained as others have tried to do in the past.


you are one one who is making a strawman argument when challenged to show images ......you want us to believe there are lots of images of Scud intercept over the year yet in less than 12 hours of the operation you want to show us possible TLAM on the ground

Let the US show all the Sat images of pre and post strike target of the 103 missile fired and let them disprove Russian claims ...........eventually images will come up.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 18:44

Published video from the Syrian airfield Mezzeh after a coalition strike



https://ria.ru/syria/20180414/151864434 ... dex_main_3

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby brar_w » 14 Apr 2018 18:46

Sorties and targeting are based on the need. Israel has successfully ended the Nuclear ambitions of two of its neighbors in the past. If there is actually a need for them to fly and strike targets that they cannot successfully target using stand-off weapons they surely will do that. Of course, the risk will be significant but if it something that threatens them to that degree they will likely take it. So far they seem to have limited their actions to the Iranian drone operations.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby brar_w » 14 Apr 2018 18:48

Austin wrote:
You are the one who claimed there are lots of images of Scud Bodies and motors shown over the years , So please so us the lots of images of Scud bodies and motors you claim that are lots of those because I saw less then dozen of those


I was referring to the recent operations in the ME not going back 25 years or so.

Please show us all the images or atleast half a dozen of Scud Intercepted during operation Enduring freedom where Patriot intercept was most successful wrt to Scud , its seems atleast 12 were intercepted , so atleast show us 6 images of those intercepted scud


I do not believe 12 intercepts of TBMs was officially recorded. I think the number was either 6 or 9. But yes, I will be the first to point out that this is a claim and no de-classified evidence has been provided to conclusively show intercepts. But of course, if those patriots missed the targets there would also be corresponding strike damage and possibly loss of life and infrastructure at CENTCOM and other sites which they targeted. The point of the ballistic missile is to hit a high-value target and kill or destroy infra. One way to look at these claims is to actually see and study the impact and analyze. While lack of any damage in the vicinity of the intended target is not a perfect way to predict intercept success it at least sheds some light on this in the absence of other information.

you are one one who is making a strawman argument when challenged to show images ......


I am not making that argument or challenging anyone. All I am saying is that in the previous few pages, random tweets are being passed on as facts when there is nothing in those tweets that shows anything that supports the claims made in those tweets. I am also trying to record stuff that has been established so far and from that we have claims and then we have open source evidence that has emerged. Of course, I'll wait for the days and weeks that will require more images to show up.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 14 Apr 2018 18:49

https://theaviationist.com/2018/04/14/e ... -on-syria/

The fighters and tankers protecting the ships talked on civilian atc channels to helpfully give the sigint room in hymenim a good fix on things

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 18:49

French Navy FREMM Frigate Launching MdCN Cruise Missiles against targets in Syria


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 18:51

Precise, overwhelming and effective – Pentagon gives details of Syria strike (WATCH LIVE)

https://www.rt.com/usa/424142-pentagon- ... a-strikes/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 18:53

Live from science center in Syria targeted by US-led strikes

https://www.rt.com/on-air/424138-syria- ... ed-center/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby rsingh » 14 Apr 2018 19:00

Austin wrote:French Navy FREMM Frigate Launching MdCN Cruise Missiles against targets in Syria



Russian MOD said that he is not sure about French participation.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 19:01

quite detailed briefing from Ru MOD but I will just highlight the percentage success and failure of strike from RuMOD figures

http://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/5126419

The targets were, among other things, the air bases of the Syrian Air Force. The objective control data show the following: on the airfield of Duvali four missiles were involved in the attack - all shot down (100%); on the airfield of Dumeir - 12 missiles, all shot down (100%); on the airfield of Blai - 18 missiles, all shot down (100%); On the airfield Shayrat - 12 missiles, all shot down (100%). The airfields were not damaged. Of the nine missiles fired at the unused Mezze airfield, five were shot down (55.5%). Of the 16 missiles at the Homs airfield, 13 (81.25%) were destroyed. Serious devastation on this site is not observed.

30 missiles were involved in a strike against objects in the vicinity of the settlements of Barz and Jaramani. Of these, seven missiles were shot down (23.3%). These objects, allegedly related to the so-called "military chemical program" of Damascus, are partially destroyed. At the same time they are not used for a long time, people and equipment were not on them.


Just highlighting the failure , Worst seems Barz and Jaramani , 7 out of 30 shot success ratio 23.3 %
Homs - out of 16 , 12 got intercepted 3 were failures so 81.25 % success

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 14 Apr 2018 19:03

The Jaysh al-Islam militants' leader Muhammad Allush reportedly expressed indignation of the US-led strikes via Twitter and called it a "farce."

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 19:06

rsingh wrote:
Austin wrote:French Navy FREMM Frigate Launching MdCN Cruise Missiles against targets in Syria



Russian MOD said that he is not sure about French participation.


They said they were not sure if the French or Brits fired the missile from aircraft as they use the same missile here is the official MOD press

http://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/5126419
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation stated that it had not fixed the use of French aviation. This may be due to the fact that the Rafal fighters fired the SCALP-EG missiles outside the range of the air defense systems of the SAR, and the missiles themselves could be mistaken for the British Storm Shadow, because their designs are similar.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 19:09

Would be interesting for MOD to see why Syrian AD failed drastically at Barz and Jaramani where they could shoot just 7 out of 30 missile , on the other hand why they manged to shoot with 100 % probability in other areas.

Does Barz and JAramani uses older interceptor ? SA-2 , SA-6 ?
Does the terrain favours cruise missile more than AD because of lack of Low Level Radar
Is the AD much thinner in those areas since they didnt expect any attack there ?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby brar_w » 14 Apr 2018 19:10

Overall Missile count claimed to have been used -

Tomahawk - 66 Missiles
SCALP/SH - 20 Missiles
JASSM-ER - 19 Missiles

https://www.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/Syria/

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby IndraD » 14 Apr 2018 19:35


back to basics..for those who want to have beginners understanding of what Syrian conflict is about..

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby IndraD » 14 Apr 2018 19:38

:rotfl:
@RealDonaldTrFan
34m34 minutes ago
More
Mission Accomplished! Since yestarday's US-Led Syria strike, Syria hasn't used ANY chemical weapons! Good attack, THANKS TO ME! Unlike last year's strike, when Obama was presidant, our soldiers, sailors & marines were SO STUPID, they couldn't do ANYTHING right. #SaturdayMorning
(Parody account)
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 19:39

Pentagon has a diametrical opp views compared to ruskies 71 intercept , They says Syrian AD did not intercept a single cruise missile and Syrian fired SAM in pure ballistic trajectory increasing risk to their own population due to falling debris :-?

Pentagon announced the inefficiency of air defense of Syria


https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3604769

Syrian air defense (air defense) forces were unable to intercept a single missile or aircraft of the United States, Britain and France during the attack that these countries carried out on three sites in Syria. This was stated by the representative of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Lieutenant-General Kenneth Mackenzie. In total, according to the estimates of the Pentagon, the Syrian army has produced more than 40 ground-to-air missiles.

"Most of these launches occurred after our strike was over. It seems that the regime launched many of these missiles along a ballistic trajectory, that is, without aiming. Syria's defense efforts were largely ineffective and obviously increased the risk to its own population, based on such an indiscriminate response. If you fire iron into the air without aiming, it should fall somewhere, "said Lieutenant General Mackenzie.

The United States does not have data on the operation of Russian air defense systems during the strike by the United States, Britain and France, the representative of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby IndraD » 14 Apr 2018 19:39

was S 400 or anything of that sort used or Ru is fine with US roasting Syria?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby brar_w » 14 Apr 2018 19:42

IndraD wrote:was S 400 or anything of that sort used or Ru is fine with US roasting Syria?


No Russian systems were used and there were deconfliction channels open during the operation. This was similar to what happened with Israeli strikes where Israel had communication channels open with Russia (but Iranians forces were not warned as they were the targets). Clearly, this would disappoint some here given that they were wishing for Russian targets to be struck but current claims are that adequate and pre-determined deconfliction procedures were followed by US forces and France may have had other unilateral communication regarding its targets. No tactical nuclear weapons have been reported to have been used either and no Iskander Ballistic Missiles are known or claimed to have been used.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby chanakyaa » 14 Apr 2018 19:49

IndraD wrote:
back to basics..for those who want to have beginners understanding of what Syrian conflict is about..

Basics of what?? The video start with 2011 Arab spring. It is not "Back" enough and it is not "Basics" enough. Sorry, but relying on Vox to explain the basics is like watching Dr. Kolin bin-Povvell explaining the basics by showing yellow mustard powder in UN. :rotfl: Flooding the print and visual media with fake news is the old mantra...

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby IndraD » 14 Apr 2018 19:51

OK so kindly post even more basic video of Sy conflict dating back to what you think is correct. @chanakyaa

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby IndraD » 14 Apr 2018 19:54

brar_w wrote:
IndraD wrote:was S 400 or anything of that sort used or Ru is fine with US roasting Syria?


No Russian systems were used and there were deconfliction channels open during the operation. This was similar to what happened with Israeli strikes where Israel had communication channels open with Russia (but Iranians forces were not warned as they were the targets). Clearly, this would disappoint some here given that they were wishing for Russian targets to be struck but current claims are that adequate and pre-determined deconfliction procedures were followed by US forces and France may have had other unilateral communication regarding its targets. No tactical nuclear weapons have been reported to have been used either.

which means Ru is OK with US roasting Sy as far Ru assets/base are intact. Clearly this was not the last one and there will be more strikes on Damascus.
It is time Ru supporters have a reality check. Going by how they are OK with Turkey, Sy roasting one wonders if they are dependable allies.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby brar_w » 14 Apr 2018 19:58

IndraD wrote:which means Ru is OK with US roasting Sy as far Ru assets/base are intact.


Russia will do what is in its best interest, not what is best in Assad's or Tehran's interest (but of course there will be an overlap in interests). There are professional Russian and US/Coalition forces operating in the region and there are likely robust communication channels open between them that adequately addresses each other's concerns and properly deconflict. So far, US and Israeli operations in the region have adequately deconflicted and communicated while operating in the region, the one exception to that being the Wagner incident but then that was not with the armed forces of Russia who would know exactly what and how to communicate.

Clearly this was not the last one and there will be more strikes on Damascus.


I don't think so but who knows.

Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs - http://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-105_-abd-ingi ... _en.en.mfa
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby nam » 14 Apr 2018 20:07

Given that chemical production & storage facilities have been targeted, any reports of people dying of the chemical released?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2018 20:26

IndraD wrote::rotfl:
@RealDonaldTrFan
34m34 minutes ago
More
Mission Accomplished! Since yestarday's US-Led Syria strike, Syria hasn't used ANY chemical weapons! Good attack, THANKS TO ME! Unlike last year's strike, when Obama was presidant, our soldiers, sailors & marines were SO STUPID, they couldn't do ANYTHING right. #SaturdayMorning
(Parody account)


Mission Accomplished , Good Work Boi ! Now back to hitting Comey ......he is coming at you "Nice and Smart" with "A Higher Loyalty" :P

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby ShyamSP » 14 Apr 2018 20:42

brar_w wrote:
IndraD wrote:which means Ru is OK with US roasting Sy as far Ru assets/base are intact.


Russia will do what is in its best interest, not what is best in Assad's or Tehran's interest (but of course there will be an overlap in interests). There are professional Russian and US/Coalition forces operating in the region and there are likely robust communication channels open between them that adequately addresses each other's concerns and properly deconflict. So far, US and Israeli operations in the region have adequately deconflicted and communicated while operating in the region, the one exception to that being the Wagner incident but then that was not with the armed forces of Russia who would know exactly what and how to communicate.


If the west takes control of Assad's Syria, do you think they let Russia stay there? Its interest is to clean up the Russia out of the region. If they succeed in Syria, next is Iran for total control of middle east. At some point being military superpower Russia has to enter into fray, otherwise they are going to lose global allies and power.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby brar_w » 14 Apr 2018 20:47

@Shyam, I am not really taking sides in what Russia should or should not do or wishing for Russian targets to be struck or trying to predict Russians using tactical nukes or ballistic missiles of their own against US forces. etc etc All I was trying to say was that in most, if not all, instances so far each of the parties concerned (US, UK, France, Israel etc) have managed to adequately communicate and deconflict with the Russians and they continue to do the same for now. There are at least 2000 US forces currently in Syria. The number once factoring in all other US allied operators is likely much larger so yeah if they wanted to strike US targets they wouldn't even need to look beyond the geographical limits of Syria. If they wanted to target US aircraft, there are literally tens of of sorties a day over Syria so they could start launching and target those. Even during this mission there were known DCA missions flown and they likely continued after the attack in support of deployed US Special operators elsewhere in Syria .If I were to bet, I'd say that Russia would do nothing of this sort but then that is just my opinion.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby rgosain » 14 Apr 2018 20:52

Clearly Russia aren't going to retaliate for this bombardment, but was this volley of missiles aimed to warn the Iranians in Syria and Iraq that they can be targeted at any time, using the alleged chemical attack as a pretext. Consider that last year's strike off-loaded 60 CM on a single AFB,and this recent one was 110 CM dispersed over a wider target space - in effect less concentrated.
Twenty years ago Clinton unleased a CM attack using 20 missiles on Sudanese tableting factory during his Lewinsky travails.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Suresh S » 14 Apr 2018 21:04

Y. Kanan wrote:I never thought Trump had a chance, despite his popularity here on BRF (for making some pro-Indian noises).

No elected US president can defy the ruling elites of the West. We Indians need to get this through our thick heads. I hope this enlightens our policy elites as they seek strategic entanglement with the US. America is our enemy and will destabilize us or attack us when it suits them.


Totally agree. I will add all west european countries and anglo saxon countries .The only ones that have some backbone are irish, Italians, greeks(people level not country level)among these disgusting countries.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby chanakyaa » 14 Apr 2018 21:14

IndraD wrote:OK so kindly post even more basic video of Sy conflict dating back to what you think is correct. @chanakyaa

What “basics” is and what qualifies as a “history” is all perception. We are assuming that someone has taken time and efforts to outline true, true intentions of West and Russia in a nicely framed video. Why would any of the parties (or their MSMs) undertake such a noble initiative? That doesn’t mean information doesn’t exist. Lot of information is out there, but all that one needs to do is connect the dots. I don't have any videos, but for some discussion, here are some points for a larger picture, which will help connect the dots (nothing new).

- russia’s Oil/gas exports to Europe
- Arab’s ability, willingness to replace it
- Arab, under control, energy is priced in thollar not euros
- it’s implications to Russian national securiity
- geographical significance of area east of Euphrates for safe energy transit (pipeline etc)
- splitting large countries to size so easy to manipulate
- reliance on weapon sales
- wars are good for business
- sale of energy is a dominant currency

Just to name a few. Cheers.

darshhan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2287
Joined: 12 Dec 2008 11:52

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby darshhan » 15 Apr 2018 00:04

Singha wrote:All in all a damp squib by mutual ageement


on point Singha ji. Nothing but staged exercise. USofA callS Putin and pleadS "hey vlad let me save my honour". Putin responds"Ok but dont go beyond 100-150 and do give me your list of selected targets well in advance".

Now let us look at all those who benefit by this whole episode.

1. Media. Increased TRPs bring more ad revenue
2. Military Industrial Complex especially those of western nations due to increased sales of missiles/munitions
3. Dubious NGO's/missionaries continue to feed on continuing misery
4. Video game creators.
5. Hollywood(Dont be surprised if 5 years down the line they create a NetflixTV series showing how DT, Mattis and John Bolton showed their supposedly high moral strength in order to arrive at the "Hard decision" to bomb syria. Will show a young actor in his breakout role which will likely include a pep talk at the right moment. Plus a seal team six movie as a bonus)
6. And lets not forget that US due to its shale deposits has also become an oil surplus country like Russia or Saudis. Hence any instability that leads to high oil prices now benefits US too.
7. And ofcourse Militaries and Intelligence agencies of all the parties involved. They continue to keep their relevance.

Y. Kanan
BRFite
Posts: 692
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 15 Apr 2018 00:07

<POOF>

Admin Note: He is off for a week for getting too excited. Please dont go that way.


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