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Levant crisis - III

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 03 Feb 2018 23:45

NYT writing a soft piece on the FSA, putting them up as do gooders ...

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/worl ... icle-click

With Turkey’s help, the Free Syrian Army wants to seize the northern countryside around Tal Rifaat and open a corridor to the northwestern province of Idlib, to rescue more than a million trapped civilians and fighters. :rotfl:

Mr. Erdogan has vowed to take control of a 20-mile zone along the length of Turkey’s border with Syria, and has called on United States forces to pull back from the Syrian town of Manbij.

Colonel Hammadin did not say how far his soldiers would go, but he ruled out any confrontation with American troops. He said he hoped for the United States’ support against Mr. Assad.

“America has the ability to do anything,” he said. “We look forward to them making the Assad regime leave.”

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 00:34

no idea what these G2G missiles could be, perhaps land based kalibr ? OTR21 Tochka?

Wael Al Hussaini
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·
3h
New one just took off, the destination is towards Idlib

3h
Two missiles were fired from #Khmemeim AB moments ago.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 00:37

I would predict a few backfire strikes tomorrow to complete the registering of protest against Jaish al Nasr.

jihadis lurking near saraqib will be sheltering inside well hidden tunnels and civilian areas to ride this out.

lets see how the moves toward saraqib go

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 10:07

symbolically the ruaf have destroyed the place from where the manpads was likely fired by AA team
https://sputniknews.com/russia/20180203 ... u25-video/

obviously the team has long ago relocated, the real hunt will be on via syrian spies and moles in Idlib as to locale of these leaders , again getting these leaders will not break apart the system but sends a dissuasive message if successful that lifespan after such a incident remains short.

syrians seem to have sown moles and sleeper cells in Idlib. the turkiye convoy retreating under dissuasive fire from El Eis was hit by a car bomb further up north in Atareb and lost 2 vehicles.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 10:10

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 10:11

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 10:14

erdogan red line is western side of that highway marked on the red line . saraqib is on that highway itself in the middle

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 10:17

taking that highway and a buffer around it guarantees the main road to Aleppo from Damascus. Erdogan is trying to sell that concept , that it meets Assads needs and to leave the rest of Idlib as a playpen under his control

there must be lot of shadow boxing and threats going on via track2 channels. the persians and hezbollah will not give up on Fuah and Kafraya, its a blood fued for them, after Aleppo the nusra double crossed them, getting all its people out into Idlib, but not letting all the fuah kafraya people go out. a iranian C130 daily flies there from damascus side to drop food and ammo. dealmakers and margdarshaks forced the saa and iranian objections aside in favour of quickly ending the aleppo town fighting and giving green buses to all the 1000s of rats - russia probably and egged on by the americans i think. also ruaf withdrew air support to the iranians in western aleppo countryside at some point which led to the loss of El Eis and Khan Touman.

the persians are quietly biding their time and hanging in there, somewhat resentfully in the face of russo turkish bossing around, but they are committed to being there.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby pralay » 04 Feb 2018 10:30

Singha ji,
Looks like the tigers are very unhappy about the deals and being not allowed to push on.
Which is the reason why they are so outspoken for past few days and lot of laundry is being washed in public


Image
Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 11:21

shades of the IA winning stuff like haji pir pass with red blood, and "statesmen" sitting on lutyens delhi lawns deciding to show "leadership" and give it all back.

for sure there is a layer of very rich elites in damascus going by internet pix, whose sons and business deals never had to face the heat of the civil war.

the SAA(fighting parts) + persians + hezbollah probably want to go all in

SAA/militias(corrupt parts) dont want to fight, they want enclaves and static fronts to run smuggling rackets on

the NDF garrison troops on inactive fronts just want to go home

but russia as the only provider of international cover for assad and targeted air support, weapons for SAA holds the trump cards on the big plays and is jockeying wth turkey for a as-yet unclear endgame

Erdogan is making nice with russians, while looking for any opportunity to get what he wants and double cross everyone else. vintage erdogan.

US is busy plotting a arabi bantustan and protectorate east of euphrates while using the kurds for heavy lifting but giving them little .

the ISIS is recovering in the deserts like the resilient scorpions they are.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 11:35

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 11:37

persians/IRGC as the leader of all the iraqi (PMU) , afghan(liwa fatemiyun) and irani militias probably feel they want a greater say in things, they fought hard in aleppo and now operate in critical areas like the southern desert and Al bukamal and western aleppo, freeing up the SAA regulars for offensive campaigns.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 11:38

the semi-SF "air force intelligence" a unit led by Ali Taha in the picture

Image


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 11:40

Ivan Sidorenko


@IvanSidorenko1
7h7 hours ago
More
#Syria #Idlib Post by a #Tiger_Forces Activist "The truce in Idlib began exactly at midnight today
Absolute quiet & a pause of air raids in Saraqeb until further notice
And a new front will be opened in Idlib's countryside lead by the great Tiger

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 11:42

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/statu ... 3446809600

video of the manpad being fired.

so if there was already a agreed upon truce , due to start in hours, why shoot the su25 at the fag end of it, when it was just flying low and observing things?

I believe a chetawani by the rebels that they have plenty of manpads, and getting in a kick, before the ceasefire shuts ops for a while, so they know a concerted bombing campaign will not be there , post the shootdown. for H&D reasons the ruaf struck a few and kalibers were fired on mostly empty houses.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 11:51

cries of takbir takbir dancing on burning plane

https://www.rt.com/news/417802-syria-do ... u25-video/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Philip » 04 Feb 2018 13:46

TV reports that the pilot ejected safely but was shot by troops of the rebel ground forces.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 14:04

his pistol mags looked intact. they had started yelling AOA and firing at him right after ejection before he landed per the video clips. he was in a open area and stood no chance of escaping with 100s of jihadis spread all over. the Su24 co-pilot landed in a wooded mountain area and was able to hide before jihadis reached him.

frogfoots operate in pairs, he was alone and he only was perhaps winged by HMG fire just a couple days ago, again clip posted here. unusual mission profile. they could use a Orlan drone or higher alt for manned observation.

ruaf had perhaps grown complacent to the manpad threat.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 14:08

more american trained munnas going north to beat up american trained YPG. these were very prominent outfits inside old aleppo.

Leith Aboufadel

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1m1 minute ago
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Big convoy of Zinki and Faylaq Al-Sham militants have traveled to the northern countryside of Aleppo to partake in the ongoing offensive in Afrin.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 04 Feb 2018 15:47

The turkish fella who had taken credit for the murder of Russian pilot in 2015 has been jailed it seems.
For five years for carrying illegal firearms.

Whether this has been done to punish him or protect him from russians or appease the russians is difficult to assess.

https://www.rbth.com/news/2017/05/22/tu ... ars_767871

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 04 Feb 2018 15:58

YPG Fagot anti-tank missile system takes out Turkey Army Leopard 2A4 tank


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 17:32

seems the ottoman empire has long used ruthless auxiliaries to do the dirty work. they were called bashibozouks

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bashi-bazouk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batak_massacre

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacre_of_Phocaea

these bashibazouk bands did not get a regular salary unlike the federal army or even levies, but were expected to live off the loot

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 18:59

egypt has a huge number of F-16s and is 2nd largest aid receiver after israel. not sure why they cannot combat isis in sinai

NYT

Israel Carries Out Airstrikes in Egypt, With Cairo’s O.K.
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK

Israel and Egypt are secret allies in the war against Islamist militants. Unmarked Israeli aircraft have been pounding Islamist militants in the North Sinai. Their collaboration is evidence of the region’s shifting politics.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2018 20:09

north Hama anti-ISIS offensive has kicked off. tigers launched from 3 different axes into the pocket.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 05 Feb 2018 10:41

Austin wrote:YPG Fagot anti-tank missile system takes out Turkey Army Leopard 2A4 tank



Looks like the Secondary Explosion from HEAT rounds in the tank made those huge fireball post ATGM impact.

Since Leo2 is a well protected tank it proves that fact that any amount of containerization of ammo or isolation with blow off chamber does not save the tank from Secondary Explosion nor does save the crew. And even Long distance shot from ATGM cripples and blows of tanks , We have seen that happening with Abrams and now Leo. And this is Fagot missile of 2nd gen Soviet type and Milan Equivalent.

The way forward is APS system as primary line of active defence against ATGM and complete isolation of Crew from Ammo ala Armata type approach for passive defence system.

Atleast APS is a must if tanks cannot be redisigned from scratch to have a armata like design.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 05 Feb 2018 19:47

erdogan's convoy arrives in south aleppo

https://muraselon.com/en/2018/02/massiv ... ppo-video/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 05 Feb 2018 20:07

Erdogan is on record stating the treaty of Sevres(which defined Turkeys border) to be unfair and needing revision.
Erdogan had excellent relations with Al-Assad but took the plunge in `Assad must go` still. Why?

Erdogan is clearly eyeing territories both in northern Syria as well as north western Iraq. He intends to rule the Sunni areas and willing to cooperate with fellas like Barzani who will cooperate. For others, he will use radical jihadis to keep them in line. With Russian and American help, he is now achieving his objectives.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2018 07:52

pilot roman filipov blew himself up with a grenade it seems when capture was imminent, or someone threw a grenade at him

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/gu ... ast-stand/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2018 07:54


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2018 07:59

erdogan swarming in

Ivan Sidorenko


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6h6 hours ago
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One Turkish convoy from this morning already reached Al Eis. this second convoy is a different convoy and entered Syria couple hours ago****

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 06 Feb 2018 08:08

turkiye M60upg blown up 2km from the border

https://twitter.com/DefenseUnits/status ... 9474434053

most of the attacks are by russian ATGM, with some iranian toufan atgm mixed in. the toufan being a tow clone is big but has a more compact launch tripod vs the real tow

http://s2.postimg.org/clxjop295/1035615 ... 7646_n.jpg

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Feb 2018 08:50

al masdar news - a large tract of ISIS owned land has been left intact on syria iraq border to be used when time comes....


BEIRUT, LEBANON (6:25 P.M.) – Iraqi forces have foiled a huge Islamic State offensive launched against their border positions from inside Syria almost being overrun at first but holding out long enough for air support to arrive an annihilate the terrorist onslaught.

On early Tuesday morning, Islamic State terrorists based in eastern Syria near the Iraqi border mustered elite storming forces and car bombs for a powerful offensive against Iraqi troops.


When ISIS delivered its blow, it fell on positions of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units’ (PMU) 29th Brigade in the strategic Tal Saffook region on the border with Syria.

Two car bomb attacks were hurled at Iraqi forces – it is unclear whether they hit their mark or not – after which Islamic State shock troops attempted to rush PMU defenses.

Although almost being overrun, 29th Brigade held on long enough for the Iraqi Air Force to arrive and assist it in the battle with precision strikes that apparently devastated ISIS ranks.

In the end, terrorist fighters called-off their assault after heavy losses (number unspecified) and retreated back across the border into Syria.

Although today’s attack was big, it is by no means the first time ISIS has launched assaults against Iraqi forces from its holdouts in the east Syrian desert.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 07 Feb 2018 23:14

http://cyprus-mail.com/2018/02/07/egypt ... on-cyprus/
Egypt warns Turkey over East Med economic interests

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 14:12

CNN
Washington (CNN)The US-led coalition fighting ISIS in Syria conducted air and artillery strikes against pro-regime forces in Syria on Wednesday, killing over 100 pro-regime fighters, the coalition said in a statement.

The coalition said the strikes had been carried out after forces allied with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad "initiated an unprovoked attack" against a well-established Syrian Democratic Forces headquarters where coalition advisers were working with US-backed Syrian fighters.
Some 500 pro-regime troops carried out the attack using artillery, mortar fire and Russian-made tanks, a US military official said.

"Syrian pro-regime forces maneuvered T-54 and T-72 main battle tanks with supporting mortar fire in what appears to be a coordinated attack on Syrian Democratic Forces approximately 8 kilometers east of the Euphrates River de-confliction line in Khusham, Syria," the military official said.

The official said that about "20 to 30 artillery and tank rounds landed within 500 meters" of the Syrian Democratic Forces headquarters before the US-backed fighters and coalition forces "targeted the aggressors with a combination of air and artillery strikes."

"We estimate more than 100 Syrian pro-regime forces were killed while engaging (Syrian Democratic Forces) and Coalition forces," the official said.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 08 Feb 2018 14:17

US Deep State and Jews trying to reignite the war and get regime change back on the menu.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 14:19

Ivan Sidorenko‏
@IvanSidorenko1
Follow Follow @IvanSidorenko1
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#Syria #DeirEzZor At 10:45 pm the SAA and allies launched an operation in order to capture Koneco/Koneko/Conoco gas field which is under SDF control. At the same time the SAA and allies advanced towards Jadid Ukaydat to liberate it from SDF militas
PEOPO LOTKA


@PEPOLOTKA
4h4 hours ago
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good. now there is no doubt sdf/kurds are enemies and traitors. syria will finally cooperate with turkey againt sdf

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 14:19

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/ ... topic.html

Bhadrakumar alleges that usa is transferring defeated ISIS terrorists to afpak to stir the pot there vs Iran

The US-ISIS Nexus in Afghanistan Becomes Hot Topic
Tehran has begun highlighting in loud decibel its hitherto-low key voice of disquiet that the United States is transferring the Islamic State* fighters from Syria and Iraq, where they have been defeated, to Afghanistan.

On January 30, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said: "The US goal of transferring the ISIL terrorists to Afghanistan is aimed at creating the justification for its continued deployment in the region and for buttressing the security of the Zionist regime." Indeed, any statement at the level of the Supreme Leader invariably draws attention as signaling an authoritative policy directive based on careful decision taken in the light of relevant intelligence inputs.

The point is, three days before Khamenei spoke, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) had an encounter with ISIS terrorists infiltrating Iran’s western province of Kermanshah from Iraq. By all accounts, it was a major encounter in which three IRGC personnel were killed, including an officer of the rank of major. According to the commander of the IRGC’s ground forces, Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, as many as sixteen ISIS terrorists were captured. Incidents of this nature are happening with increasing frequency along Iran’s borders and Iranian security agencies are busting large caches of explosives and arms smuggled across the border, but this is the first time such a big encounter took place.

Significantly, the senior foreign policy advisor to the parliament speaker, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, who is an influential voice in the Iranian diplomatic circuit, raised the issue of the US’ covert transfer of ISIS fighters to “northern Afghanistan” at a meeting with Jan Kubis, chairman of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq on January 28.

Kubis, a Slovak career diplomat, has previously served as UN special envoy to Tajikistan (during the transitional period following the civil war in the late 1990s), Secretary-General of the OSCE (1999-2005), EU's special envoy to Central Asia (20015-2006) and, most recently, as UN Special Representative and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (2011-2015). Abdollahian couldn’t have chosen better his interlocutor for making such a sensitive demarche. The message would have reached the intended quarters in no time.

Two days after that, Khamenei spoke. Given the above backdrop, it needs to be noted carefully that Iran has since listed the topic of US-ISIS nexus as a bilateral issue between Tehran and Kabul. On February 4, Iran’s Defense Minister Brigadier General Amir Hatami made a phone call to his Afghan counterpart Tariq Shah Bahrami and warned that Washington is “implementing plots to transfer the ISIL terrorist group to Afghanistan.” General Hatami spoke on the lines of Khamenei’s remarks, and, importantly, warned against the US’ plans to increase its military deployment to Afghanistan. He underscored that security in Afghanistan is going to be possible only in harmony with the regional states and by pooling their resources to fight terrorism.

Gen. Hatami just stopped short of warning that Tehran may have to act to counter the perceived threat to its national security interests from Afghan soil. It is conceivable that is phone call to Kabul reflected the threat perceptions in Tehran following the interrogation of the 16 ISIS terrorists in the IRGC’s custody.

Iran has reason to feel perturbed that western Afghanistan is also witnessing a political vacuum lately similar to what has been happening in northern Afghanistan in the Amu Darya region during the past several weeks. The Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has destabilized the entire northern region bordering Central Asia by his abrupt dismissal of the governor of Balkh province, Atta Mohammad Noor in November. It is improbable that Ghani took such a precipitate step on his own volition. Atta is a powerful figure, popularly known as the ‘King od the North’. Noor, by the way, is also the head of the Jamiat-i-Islami and happens to be an aspirant to contest the presidential election in 2019.

No doubt, the US concurred with Noor’s removal – if not outright sought it. Curiously, the Trump administration has since voiced support for Ghani’s move. The US Vice-President Mike Pence made two phone calls to Ghani in January to express solidarity. On January 24, the White House took an extraordinary step to issue a statement that it “has been closely following the current dispute” and demanding a quick resolution to the Ghani-Noor standoff, virtually forewarning the latter to capitulate. But Noor hit back on February 3, naming the Kabul regime as puppets of the Americans and stoking the fires of Afghan nationalism.

Of course, the prolonged power vacuum in Balkh has created favorable conditions for the ISIS terrorists to establish presence in northern Afghanistan. Similarly, Rashid Dostum, the Uzbek strongman, who has been a bulwark against terrorist groups in the northern provinces, is on enforced exile in Turkey. The US, which controls Afghan air space, twice refused permission to his aircraft to land. (Interestingly, Turkish President Recep Erdogan since had a one-on-one with Dostum in Ankara.)

The heart of the matter is that a situation similar to Balkh is also on cards in the western province of Farah bordering Iran, where the provincial governor Mohammad Aref Shah Jahan abruptly “resigned” from the post ten days ago, citing as reasons “the worsening security situation in Farah” and “interference in my responsibilities from various individuals.” From all appearances, he decided to quit under duress. (In recent months, US made fresh deployments to Farah.)

What becomes an enigma wrapped in mystery is that Jahan, a Pashtun, and Noor (a Tajik) also happen to enjoy reputation as staunch Afghan nationalists. The conclusion becomes unavoidable that for reasons of its own, Washington desires ‘regime change’ in these two crucially important border provinces (Balkh and Farah), which border Central Asia and Iran respectively. Suffice to say, Tehran would wonder, “Who stands to gain?” Of course, it can only be the ISIS.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 18:16

al omar oil fields are where the fighting took place. these were captured by SDF by bribing the ISIS pasand tribes sitting on them to move out. its the biggest reserve of oil in syria
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 18:32

a small YPJ unit launches rockets on turkiye forces
https://twitter.com/DefenseUnitsYPJ/sta ... 8750099458

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 18:34

Elijah J. Magnier


@ejmalrai
2h2 hours ago
More Elijah J. Magnier Retweeted Elijah J. Magnier
The immediate plan of #Damascus and allies to eliminate #ISIS pocket, freeing around 15000 #SAA engaged in the area, so they can concentrate later on #Idlib and not only Fua and Kfarya, as #Russian military leaders are planning.Elijah J. Magnier added,
Elijah J. Magnier

@ejmalrai
#Damascus and allies are convinced that Trump's forces will suffer the most when #Idlib is liberated. The wishful goal for these forces it to keep #AQ so they don't remain alone, as a a sore thumb, illegally occupying part of the Levant.


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