Levant crisis - III

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 18:35

Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
2h2 hours ago
More Elijah J. Magnier Retweeted Elijah J. Magnier
It is clear for Damascus and allies that the Trump occupation forces will not pull out of #Syria and its presence is not related to ISIS or to put pressure on political negotiation but to stay and occupy north east Syria.Elijah J. Magnier added,
Elijah J. Magnier

@ejmalrai
#Syria: The death toll, according to sources in Syria, is around 61 (not 100) Syrian killed by Trump Air force. The occupation force air bombed also static #SAA and national forces positions around Deir-ezzour and not only moving forces.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 08 Feb 2018 20:39

Singha wrote:https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/02/06/us-isis-nexus-afghanistan-becomes-hot-topic.html

Bhadrakumar alleges that usa is transferring defeated ISIS terrorists to afpak to stir the pot there vs Iran



SO JNU loonie MK Bhadrakumar is now the voice of reason needing debate at BR now.
Balkh is almost as far away from Iran border as Nangarhar.
The Shia hating Pashtoons of Orakzai constitute the bulk of ISIS in south eastern Afghanistan along with TTP mehsuds.
The northern Afghan ISIS pocket is composed of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan(IMU) fighters. And that is why they are at Balkh which borders Uzbekistan and not on Iran border.

Now we know why we have JNU-lefty-congi ecosystem in India. We do have a market for MK Bhadrakumar type JNU commies peddling their crap.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 08 Feb 2018 20:47

US goal in Syria is to cover the Syria-Iraq border so that Hezbollah is denied the transit of arms from Iran. That is why they are staying put at al-Tanf. That is why they are proposing a border force of 30,000, composing the Kurds.
All because Iran has vowed to destroy Israel and regularly sends rockets to Hezbollah which are thereafter fired into Israel.

Now that Syrian territory is fair game for every country, icluding jihadi Erdogan (thank you Putin), US is unlikely to go anywhere anytime soon. All jihadis from Iran to Turkey and jihad-pasand chessplayers should get used to it.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 08 Feb 2018 21:03


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 08 Feb 2018 21:07

No one wants to see Kurds gain any prominence in Syria , Neither Turkey or Iran or Iraq or Syria or any border state , they all have their own interest in doing so sort of strange brothers in bed with it comes to Kurds willing to work together.

Only Saudi Barbaria and US would want to use Kurds for their own geopolitical interst.

In the end Kurds are just guinea pigs in this conflict no one is really fighting for their interest but every country is doing for its own geopolitical claim

Sort of interesting conflict there !

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 21:10

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/02/sy ... orces.html


Syria - U.S. May Have Arranged "Self Defense" Attack On Syrian Government Forces
Last night the illegal U.S. occupation force in north-east Syria attacked a group of Syrian government aligned troops and their Russian support. The incident happened north-east of Deir Ezzor city on the east side of the Euphrates. The U.S. claims that it killed some 100 Syrian soldiers that were allegedly attacking its proxy forces in an attempt to recover oil fields.

There is a factual separation of areas south-west of the Euphrates under Syrian government control and north-east of the Euphrates under U.S. occupation. But several locations around Manbij, Raqqa and Deir Ezzor contradict that and are under control of the respective other side. The U.S. claims that a "de-confliction line" along the Euphrates is agreed upon. The Syrian government says that no such agreement exists.

An small area across the Euphrates north-east of Deir Ezzor had been taken by Syrian government forces months ago. It is near some oilfields which the U.S. wants to keep away from the Syrian government.


bigger
"The U.S. wants to keep Syria weak and poor," says Prof. Joshua Landis. According to Landis the U.S. is keeping the north-east of Syria under occupation to deny Syria access to its oil and its best agricultural land. It wants to turn Syria into a swamp for Russia and Iran to the benefit of mostly Israel.

The valuable oil and gas fields are currently in the hands of local Arab tribes who earlier worked with the Islamic State and are now, the U.S. claims, allied with the YPG/PKK Kurds under the name Syrian Democratic Forces. The SDF is the U.S. local proxy force for its occupation.

On the Syrian government side in Deir Ezzor are a few Syrian troops, local militia from the area, as well as members of Russian private military contractor named Wagner Group. Wagner allegedly has a contract with the Syrian government that will give it some 25% of all revenues from oil-fields it recovers and protects.

Last night the U.S. military announced that it had "self defended" against an attack by Syrian government troops on Syrian ground:

Syrian pro-regime forces initiated an unprovoked attack against well-established Syrian Democratic Forces headquarters Feb. 7.
Coalition service members in an advise, assist, and accompany capacity were co-located with SDF partners during the attack eight kilometers east of the agreed-upon Euphrates River de-confliction line.

In defense of Coalition and partner forces, the Coalition conducted strikes against attacking forces to repel the act of aggression against partners engaged in the Global Coalition's defeat-Daesh mission.

Reuters reports:

More than 100 fighters aligned with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad were killed overnight when U.S. coalition and coalition-backed local forces repelled their attack in eastern Syria, a U.S. official said on Thursday.
The heavy death toll underscored the large size of the attack, which the U.S. official said included about 500 opposing forces, backed by artillery, tanks, multiple-launch rocket systems and mortars. The official spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.
...
No American troops were killed or wounded in the incident, officials said.

Some U.S. troops had been embedded at the time with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), whose headquarters in Syria’s Deir al-Zor province had been a target of the attack.

One SDF fighter was wounded, the official said.

The U.S.also claims that it had seen preparations for the Syrian move and had warned the Russian command in Syria in advance:

The U.S.-led coalition had alerted Russian officials about the presence of SDF forces in the area far in advance of the thwarted attack, the U.S. official said.
Other sources say that there have been talks between Wagner and locals Arabs guarding the currently unproductive "Conoco" oil and gas field operation near the town of Khisham.

Hassan Hassan @hxhassan - 12:17 AM - 8 Feb 2018
5. Interesting, about a week ago, local reports also suggested an imminent deal to hand over the plant to the regime through an Arab faction within the SDF.
A translation of an earlier report from the opposition Al-Etihad media seems to confirm that some deal had been made:

Activists said Assad forces and Shiite militias have gathered near the villages of Bakkara Akidat, Dahla and Sabah in the eastern suburbs of Deir-ez-Zor (east of the Euphrates) near the Conoco gas field, which is controlled by Kurdish forces.
The sources added that the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces informed the U.S.-led coalition forces of these developments. The coalition urged SDF fighters not to resist the regime forces and surrender the area.

The activists added that the SDF has already withdrawn heavy weapons from their areas held by Arab and Turkmen factions.

Might this whole operation have been a trap? The U.S. military clearly knew that something was going to happen in the area. Local deals were made between the Syrian government side and locals Arabs holding the oil fields. The U.S. told the SDF to move out of the way. When the government aligned groups started to take over the field, as presumably agreed upon, the U.S. bombed them.

The "attack on coalition forces" the U.S. claimed as justification for its bombing seems not to have taken place at all. How else does one explain that sole casualty of the claimed battalion size attack with strong artillery support is "one wounded SDF" fighter? A later U.S. military statement to a journalist seems to be vague about the reality of an attack:

After 20 to 30 artillery and tank rounds landed within 500 meters of the SDF headquarters location, Syrian Democratic Forces supported by the Coalition targeted the aggressors with a combination of air and artillery strikes.
Is the U.S. military emphasizing the "SDF headquarters location" because the headquarter was no longer there as the SDF had already withdrawn from it? And why is a tank round landing some 500 meters away seen as a direct attack? Tanks rounds may deviate from the targeted point by a meter or two. There is no chance that rounds landing some 500 meters away were intended to hit the headquarter location. Whatever the Syrian forces have been hitting at, if they hit at all, was not the SDF headquarter location.

The story the U.S. military is trying to sell here stinks.

The incident seems comparable to the unprovoked U.S. attack on Syrian troops in September 2016. That air attack killed 100 Syrian troops who were then encircled and holding out against Islamic State forces. At that time it nearly enabled the Takfiris to eliminate that last Syrian government position in the east.

There has recently been a chain of provocations against Russian and Syrian forces in Syria. Two massive drone swarm attacks were directed against the Russian air-port in Hememim and its naval base in Tartus. This week well targeted mortar rounds from east-Ghouta have hit the Russian trade mission in Damascus and severely damaged it. A Russian aid-distribution point in Damascus was similarly attacked just while leaders of some Russian non-government organizations were visiting it. Over Idleb a Russian jet was shot down with a rare MANPADS. All three were beyond the material and intelligence capabilities of the "rebel" forces.

The ludicrous "chlorine gas attack" propaganda against Syria is back in full force. Despite an Russian-Turkish-Iranian de-escalation agreement with Turkey, al-Qaeda and other "rebel" forces in Idleb governorate still seem to receive unlimited supplies through Turkish borders. Israel is attacking targets in Syria and tries to extend its occupation of the Golan heights.

The U.S. war against Syria and its allies continues with full forces even while the U.S. pretends that no such war is happening at all. The intend to create the swamp Prof. Landis talks about is hidden behind clandestine operations, "self defense" action and "humanitarian" blubber.

The U.S. should be careful. More than one side can play dirty games. Its troops in north-east Syria have thin supply lines and are not well protected. They, as well as U.S. forces in Iraq, are vulnerable to clandestine activities of the other side. I would not be surprised at all should they suddenly receive some unwanted and very bloody attention.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 21:13

^^ the deal with SDF spoken of above is probably why assad allowed a huge armed convoy of the manbij military council(mainly YPGJ) to pass his north aleppo lines into Afrin just two days ago to reinforce the garrison.

I guess assad will now disallow armed convoys and restrict food flowing into Afrin in retaliation as he cannot take on the usaf directly plus think of planning a insurgency in eastern syria by paying tribal chiefs and armed fortune seekers.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 21:16

tigers are slicing and dicing the isis east hama pocket without much trouble , in a weeks time that pocket will be gone.
est of isis inside were 500-1000.

then the Idlib war will restart.

Nusra elite forces have not been seen in action yet, they let the other factions bear the brunt while keeping powder dry.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 21:20

background on the russian akademi/dyncorp ie wagner group
https://www.economist.com/news/europe/2 ... came-syria
Fontanka.ru recently reported that their role has expanded to include seizing oil wells held by IS for a newly-formed Russian company, Evro Polis

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 21:23

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/worl ... -isis.html
https://themoscowtimes.com/news/russian ... yria-59920
The 48-page contract between Moscow-registered Evro Polis and Syria’s General Petroleum Corp said the Russian security firm would receive a 25 percent share of profits from oil and gas fields it wrested from IS, a terrorist organization banned in Russia.

Based on Russian media reports, the AP said Tuesday that thousands of the contractors were active in the embattled Middle Eastern country, whose civil war has cost at least 300,000 lives in six years. Since 2015, at least 73 mercenaries have died, AP reported, citing a Russian journalist.

Opposition leader and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny earlier this year linked Evro Polis with Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is in Putin’s inner circle and whose security firms have previously won lucrative Defense Ministry contracts, the AP reports.

Both the Russian and Syrian energy ministries declined to comment on the AP’s findings.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 08 Feb 2018 21:24



Sounds great. Lets see if this also has Putin`s consent. Eventually Turkey will be controlling northern Syria.
When Roos and Iran ask Turkey to vacate the territories, Erdogan will make another switch. It is a NATO member. Will be protected by US alliance. US will see its own geopolitical advantage. A US ally controlling all of north Syria against a Russian alliance.
Cheers

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 21:26

the contract if anyone can read russian!
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... tract.html
A 47-page contract between Evro Polis and Syria's state-owned General Petroleum Corp. says the Russian company will receive 25 percent of the proceeds from oil and gas production at fields its contractors capture and secure from Islamic State militants.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Feb 2018 21:29

erdogan controlling a belt of north of Idlib is not a critical issue for syria if they can wipe out nusra and get the bulk of it.
easier said than done though, nusra is very strong and has massive weapons caches the ruaf is trying to locate and damage.
erdogan could pretend to fight nusra and take over a lot of land quickly with the nusrats giggling and hiding under his kimono and behind his tanks.

syria has to live with turkey as is neighbour whether love them or hate them just as india and TSP are joined at the hip for 1000km.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 08 Feb 2018 21:42

Parasu wrote:


Sounds great. Lets see if this also has Putin`s consent. Eventually Turkey will be controlling northern Syria.
When Roos and Iran ask Turkey to vacate the territories, Erdogan will make another switch. It is a NATO member. Will be protected by US alliance. US will see its own geopolitical advantage. A US ally controlling all of north Syria against a Russian alliance.
Cheers


Any thing is possible but right now Turkey is Shafting US and NATO and you cant really blame Turkey for protecting its geopolitical interest.

I guess Russia across leadership wont mind it as longs as it preserves Russia long term geo-strategic presense and interest in ME from being close to Zero Player in ME it has it hands in Syria , Iraq and Iran ...the Shia Cresant and these countries are more than happy to have a allay in Russia because they know US would double cross them and are in bed with Saudi and Sunnis.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 08 Feb 2018 21:56

Austin wrote:
Any thing is possible but right now Turkey is Shafting US and NATO and you cant really blame Turkey for protecting its geopolitical interest.

I guess Russia across leadership wont mind it as longs as it preserves Russia long term geo-strategic presense and interest in ME from being close to Zero Player in ME it has it hands in Syria , Iraq and Iran ...the Shia Cresant and these countries are more than happy to have a allay in Russia because they know US would double cross them and are in bed with Saudi and Sunnis.


How exactly is Turkey shafting US and NATO by taking over a Russian ally`s territory?!
Turkey is the Sunni leader and jihad supporter. Along with Qatar. It is they who armed Nusra and other jihadis, at least in northern Syria. Their problems with Israel, Egypt and Saudi are precisely because they are supporting a poisonous variety of Sunni jihadism.

Yes, Russia has revived its relevance in middle-east. Russian intervention in Syria was absolutely the correct thing to do. Particularly against a poisonous US/Saudi/Turkish propaganda. But their current policy vis a vis Turkey is laughably stupid.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 09 Feb 2018 07:27

http://www.english.iswnews.com/1145/rus ... -of-syria/
In simple words, Russia expects that by increasing the seriousness of Turkey’s attack, Kurds would give some privileges in other areas (such as Deir al Zur, Tabaqa, Raqa and Manbij…) and on the other hand Russia would prevent Turkey’s attack and Russian and Syrian flags in Afrin would be raised.



Iran and Syria did not dislike the plan or at least did not feel bad about it, since if Russians could not convince the Kurds to raise the central government, at least the load on the fronts in Idlib and Aleppo by forces led by Turkey would be reduced.

But the predictions were not correct. US pressures Kurds’ politicians in Syria and SDF commanders to oppose Syrian flag to be raised.

US objection was also very natural, since US doctoring is to divide and destabilize the region (specially using the Kurdish race) and in Syria to weaken Iran’s influence and Assad’s government, who is an ally of Iran.



Syrian Kurdistan also looks at US as their benefactor and is natural to order to fight back in Afrin and to call it a brave and epic resistance, even though they know it is doomed to be defeated !!



US political oppositions end when Turkey claim the operation is limited to Afrin only.

Another prediction which proved to be false is the reaction of Tahrir al Sham, who are in complete alliance with Turkey.



Now we just can sit and see how it goes, Does Turkey satisfy to a border band or wants to occupy Afrin completely and become neighbor of Aleppo, Nubl and Zahra (where is Iran’s base) or even to make a way between Azaz (Al Bab region) and Idlib?

It seems that the second plan to be more plausible which causes Iran to react and demand to stop the Operation Olive Branch and to get more serious by Turkish advances and on the other side Kurds in Afrin will get more logistic supports to stop Turkish Army…

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 09 Feb 2018 07:29

ISIS is gone in east hama
Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Feb 2018 08:39

I get the feeling that Putin's chess is to let Erdogan do his thing in Syria, and then make Turkey disintegrate.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 09 Feb 2018 08:44

Putin has no real use or time for the kurds. what have they done for him lately other than permitting the US to take over half of syria?

yesterdays strike on the al bakara tribe at omar oil field would have killed some of his wagner contractors also.

other than US, none of the players russia, turkey, syria, iraq, iran want a independent rojava.

any blowback from kurds in terms of PKK activity will be on erdogan only. he wants the bosporus open but turkey being in turmoil is again no skin off his nose, reduces potential for nato mischief in the black sea.

more interesting is his posture on Idlib . is Idlib really going to be static front and handed over on a plate to erdogan and his nusra bandits now ? we will know in a few days if tiger forces return to attack saraqib or are told to cool their heels

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 09 Feb 2018 08:52

Very interesting what ex DOD Boss U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel Says on Turkey

Afghanistan worse than ever, Russia ‘holds the cards’ in Syria, warns former DoD boss

On Turkey, Hagel expressed frustration that the current situation, with Turkish forces targeting Kurds inside Syria, could have been avoided had the U.S. taken seriously statements from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

“We’ve got a problem with the Turks because we didn’t listen to them,” Hagel said, recounting a 2014 meeting he had with Erdogen where the Turkish leader laid out his priorities.

“He told me directly in 2014, fall 2014, ‘Mr. Secretary, ISIS is not our No. 1 threat. They’re a problem. The Kurds have been and will continue to be until we win. And we will do everything and anything we need to do to eliminate the Kurds,’ ” Hagel recounted. “Now, if a country says that that’s the No. 1 internal security interest, we’re not going to convince them otherwise.”


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 09 Feb 2018 08:55

>>And we will do everything and anything we need to do to eliminate the Kurds,’

the kurds already form some 20% of anatolian (asian part of turkey) pop and have a much higher birth rate. they live in adjacent tract of syria and iraq.
other than genocide and this glib american pro-consul signing off on it 1971 style, what else does he mean by "eliminate" ?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 09 Feb 2018 08:58

the richer parts of turkey have -ve birth rate and kurds are increasing
Image
Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 09 Feb 2018 09:02

and its not as if the kurds are historical enemies of turkish people..infact they were enthusiastic participants in past genocides like of armenians and served the sultans army.

most famous historical kurd
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saladin#Early_life
Saladin was born in Tikrit in modern-day Iraq. His personal name was "Yusuf"; "Salah ad-Din" is a laqab, an honorific epithet, meaning "Righteousness of the Faith."[14] His family was of Kurdish ancestry,[5] and had originated from the city of Dvin in medieval Armenia.[15][16] The Rawadid tribe he hailed from had been partially assimilated into the Arabic-speaking world by this time.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 09 Feb 2018 14:14

smells like a ambush ...
--

U.S. counter-attack in Syria included Air Force AC-130 gunships, F-15s, F-22s, Army Apache helicopter gunships and Marine Corps artillery killing 100 Russian and Assad-backed fighters in 3-hour battle beginning around midnight last night.

153 replies 926 retweets 886 likes

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Shanmukh » 09 Feb 2018 21:51

Singha wrote:and its not as if the kurds are historical enemies of turkish people..infact they were enthusiastic participants in past genocides like of armenians and served the sultans army.

most famous historical kurd
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saladin#Early_life
Saladin was born in Tikrit in modern-day Iraq. His personal name was "Yusuf"; "Salah ad-Din" is a laqab, an honorific epithet, meaning "Righteousness of the Faith."[14] His family was of Kurdish ancestry,[5] and had originated from the city of Dvin in medieval Armenia.[15][16] The Rawadid tribe he hailed from had been partially assimilated into the Arabic-speaking world by this time.


Agree 100% with Singha-saar, here. Kurds have historically been the most ferocious Islamists. Their `purity' notions put the Pakis to shame. Read Russian travelogues which narrate how the Kurds used to fill up wells when Russians drank water from it or abandon their homes if the Russians lived in it. The Kurds were also among the worst slave traders, BTW. Till the rise of Kurdish nationalism in the 1880s, they & the Turks got along famously with each other, while outdoing each other in massacring the infidels. Only when the Ottomans began to weaken did the Kurds & the Turks begin having problems (probably not enough infidels to loot & rape). The hatred of the infidel among the Kurds was always through the roof. Just because they & the Turks are currently enemies (over some slights to the Kurds over their culture, language, etc) doesn't mean they are nice or friendly.

Here is a classic example of how Kurds saw infidels, narrated by Babich, about how Christian travellers were seen in Kurdish villages.

``I know of such Kurds who, after the Russians stayed in their village, abandoned the village and never came back. Of course, these are extreme cases. However, the truth is that among them, the opinion is that Christians defile their homes and that is why they are so resentful. In addition, the inconvenience of moving out for a Kurd [if a Christian stayed in his home], is that he has to move all his property, both movable & immovable, including his women, for whom it is really difficult to find a place in the home of a neighbour or friend.''

Dmitri Baliev narrates how he tried to buy melons in Tabriz, only to be screamed at the owner not to touch his melons & defile them & demand that he buy the one melon he had touched.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 09 Feb 2018 22:59

YPG is actually Marxist but let us ignore that now. Let us believe the snake oil being peddled here -
Kurds are all one and they are islamists and jihadis. Fine.
But so is Erdogan. What should be in the interest of any third party, India or Russia. To ensure that the two jihadi communities turks and kurds do not combine. That they keep fighting. To do that, the weaker party need to be protected.
Another example - Pakjabis and Pashtoons are both jihadis. Do we want them to fight each other or unite?!

By allowing Erdogan to eliminate YPG, Russia is giving all power to one jihadi faction, even if we assume all kurds to be jihadis. How can that possibly be smart?

This isnt going to change nuts, because the argument regarding Kurds being jihadis has got nothing to do with facts on ground. YPG is marxist. The argument being sold here has everything to do with somehow dehumanising the Kurds and claiming that they deserve Turkish massacre. That somehow Putin is correct.
Last edited by Parasu on 10 Feb 2018 01:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 10 Feb 2018 00:19

Parasu pls edit your post and remove ‘thick headed’.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 10 Feb 2018 01:33

Akshay Kapoor wrote:Parasu pls edit your post and remove ‘thick headed’.

Done.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 10 Feb 2018 06:40

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... sive-hama/

1000 isis break out of last pocket in east hama to idlib through 30km of govt held areas. A few dozen killed but no force was there to block them on land or by airstrike

So looks like a new caliphate in south idlib . Isis together with their former buddies nusra after a long time after they deconflicted by moving to west and east syria

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 10 Feb 2018 06:41

Syria mod has also anniunced the end of all ops in idlib

Looks like russia put pressure to stop in their never ending indic hopes of a megotiated settlement lol

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 10 Feb 2018 11:37

BBC: Israeli F-16 fighter jet crashes under Syria fire, military says

Pilots are safe and managed to go back to Israel

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 10 Feb 2018 12:55

jubilant jihadis in saraqib welcome a new turkish convoy sent to protect the nusrats
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/stat ... 2883919873
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/stat ... 2579328000

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 10 Feb 2018 13:19

Down F-16 , Syria claims many Israel Aircraft was fired at

Image
"Early in the morning, Israeli enemy aircraft once again committed aggression, attacking one of the military bases in the central part. Our air defenses opened fire and hit several aircraft, "the agency quoted a military source.

Portal iz.ru on Saturday, February 10, said that the Israeli military shot down an Iranian drones , which invaded the airspace of the country from Syria. In response, the Israeli Defense Forces struck at Iranian facilities in the UAR. Later it became known about the crash of the Israeli military aircraft.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Zynda » 10 Feb 2018 22:24

Some are claiming that it was S-300 that brought down Israeli F-16.

Also a video showing a T129 going down...video res is very poor.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Feb 2018 00:10

rus is likely providing radar cover and jamming but not active SAM units. they have provided pantsyr and updated the syrian s 200
a large idf drone is also shot down

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 11 Feb 2018 08:58

Isreal on verge of full-scale intervention in Syria
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/is ... spartanntp

"Israeli media reported that the Iranian military drone was shot down near Beit Shean, close to the border with Jordan, after flying for about 90 seconds in Israeli airspace. Hadashot News reported the Israeli counterattack in Syria was believed to have destroyed a significant portion of the country’s air-defense system".

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Feb 2018 09:19

The f16 it seems attacked target near sukhnah and was tracked on its egress and shot by the iranian made hawk sam clone

Israel can keep bombing but syrians iranians are also learning and just these few bombings even daily is hardly a scratch on hezbollah who are experts in leading a shadowy existence

Israels last hope of causing real damage is if the kurds fight the govt which is unlikely to happen the last thing kurds want is the govt on their case with erdogan smirking at the back

A deir azzor mil council consisting of rebadged arab fsa and semi isis fighters on usa payroll seem to be the so called sdf fighting with govt tribes and militias there since last week

Kurds have moved north to manbij and efrin i do not think their combat units are even in raqqa

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 11 Feb 2018 10:02

Singha wrote:The f16 it seems attacked target near sukhnah and was tracked on its egress and shot by the iranian made hawk sam clone

Israel can keep bombing but syrians iranians are also learning and just these few bombings even daily is hardly a scratch on hezbollah who are experts in leading a shadowy existence

Israels last hope of causing real damage is if the kurds fight the govt which is unlikely to happen the last thing kurds want is the govt on their case with erdogan smirking at the back

A deir azzor mil council consisting of rebadged arab fsa and semi isis fighters on usa payroll seem to be the so called sdf fighting with govt tribes and militias there since last week

Kurds have moved north to manbij and efrin i do not think their combat units are even in raqqa


Syria has so far followed a policy of Strategic Restrain to avoid a two front war but Israel has been very bombastic claiming every strike deep inside syria was to deter Hizbollah because they say so.

Now Israel may have the best intel on Srian but these almost bi-monthly bombing by Israel of Big and Small Targets in syria would have given Srian AD and Iranian AD a useful tactical intel on how Israel AF operates.

If Hawk clone shot the Sufa is true then it shows Isreal F-16I are also vulnerable to obselete SAMs if managed well by SAM Crew and Israel may have to bear loss in any further strike.

More than the SAM the Radar of SAM plays the key role any 60's SAM can shoot a modern fighter but the radar that tracks guides the SAM plays the major role in this game as they would come under intense jamming from Aircraft once lock is achieved and breaking the SAM/Radar Lock would be part of jamming , israel is the best in the business

Even the SA-3 shot the F-117 rather 2 of them one landed badly damaged was a write off but the SAM Operator Skills and modified SA-3 radar played a key role then the missile itself

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Feb 2018 12:08

IDF may have got complacent and left the jammers and EW pods at home or malfunctioned. malfunctions can always happen in complex electronics subjected to vibrations and outdoor use.

some details on their reverse engineered hawk system here called Mersad. quite compact and not easy to spot unlike the s300 types
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-170710-1.html

my analysis

Image

there are 4 main routes from iran to damascus...to ship land supplies (people always come and go by air)

1) (not in map) mosul -> tal afar -> sinjar -> hasekeh -> manbij -> aleppo
this is a non starter as it passes through rojava pride lands

2) baiji / tikrit -> western nineveh border via desert roads -> ash shahdadi -> deir azzor -> sukhnah -> palmyra -> damascus
this is again a non starter as the remnants of ISIS have been parked there in a gray zone, fairly intact and able to keep the PMU units on iraqi side under threat. also part of it is covered by SDF east of DEZ.

3) baghdad - falluja - al qaim - al bukamal - DEZ - sukhnah - palmyra - damascus / or bukamal -> T2 -> sukhnah desert service road.
this is at present the ONLY road available , and hezbollah is sitting on al bukamal as the highest priority along with allies.

4) falluja - western anbar desert to rutba - al tanf crossing - syrian desert to somewhere near damascus or via sweida druzi lands
this is the famous Al tanf enclave the size of Idlib that US has occupied and bombs anyone who tries to enter. this is a staging post and listening center to monitor movements on route #3 above.

as you can see the stretches near palmyra , sukhnah with a narrow road snaking across the hills and deserts is best for airstrikes to id moving targets, temporary logistic hubs and avoid civilians. once it enters damascus they can only strike any isolated storages near the airport (which they do) but you will note the damascus airport civilian side continues to operate as usual.

the iranians will probably look to shoot any israeli/US drone of any stripe that intrudes over that region , which will make the intel loop via satellite intel longer .. and they might look to target even the high flying global hawk using the S200 system or their own SA2 clones.

the fact that airstrikes are happening is an indication that weapons are flowing. how many are getting through and dispersing is unknown.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Feb 2018 12:14

russia may have decided to respond to the DEZ provocations by rolling in their radar and EW systems and providing time sensitive targeting intel quietly to the syrians to punish the american coalition.
it was reported long ago they were interested in setting up a ER radar cum ELINT station in palmyra to keep an eye on the entire region.


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