Levant crisis - III

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Singha
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

Idlib has just started it is far from falling. could take a year of patient fighting to drain the swamp piece by piece.

Erdogan will retain the buffer area he has already grabbed between afrin to jarablous in north syria and some new belt in north Idlib near afrin. this to prevent as much as possible YPG PKK connections . he has already completed a huge concrete wall in record time on afrin front. the P2 will probably deter him from taking over afrin itself.

if Idlib and al ghab plains fall, and they are both very well defended areas, the last stand of the jihadis will be jisr al shugour ... there will be no where left to run in the north and france/uk/germany will be last ports of call. turkish govt/smugglers will take them for a fee maybe.

the other area is east ghouta in damascus suburbs which due to civilians held hostage has somehow managed to hold out against all odds and neither can syrians bombard it heavily.....pressure tactics and UN offices might be needed, a defeat in Idlib will make them more amenable to a bailout deal and move to outside syria. it is heavily defended and syrians have come to grief many times attempting to take it.

I guess US/NATO would like to see a small but powerful AQ caliphate in Idlib (levantine TSP) to keep a check on russia, iran, assad and hezbollah. so idea will be to hold out in Idlib and give a bloody nose to the manpower starved SAA and war fatigued syrian population to make them sue for peace, ease assad out via some election and establish self rule in Idlib followed by escalating levels of Sharia and violence until damascus rulers lose control of it just as Baghdad's weak initial rulers lost control of anbar and the north....
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by UlanBatori »

For whatever reasons the Russian reports on the drone caper have been publicized through professional society channels in the Yoo Ess that have so far ignored the happenings in Syria. I get the feeling that Unkil involvement in that is secondary at worst. The actual foreign powers maybe Turkey and mercenary contractors working for KSA and Qatar. Maybe TSP, which should cause some dhoti-shivering and wake-up calls in desh. As I posted, the planes themselves are under $50 each. The coms and control circuitry may be a bit sophisticated, but anyone who can wire a cellphone to a soosai vest can probably do this as well. Can probably acquire everything on open Internet, very very cheap from dlagon factolies. Alibaba.com should have them in plenty. Dropping little bombs is one thing, a kamikaze with about 50kg of C4 or RDX is quite another.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 15 Jan 2018 09:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

Image

the jihadi on left is holding a M72 LAW rocket , probably sourced from turkish stock . its called HAR-66 turkish variant had some improvements.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

uzbeki or uighur

Image
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

phase2 of south aleppo offensive has started to close the gap from the right
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

looks like almost impossible to attack the al ghab plain from the coastal side due to ranges of mountains with few roads

hence the attacks are from south and east. the HTS has the luxury of having their backs well protected - by these hills and by turkey.

japanese style tactics used in malaysia and burma hills and jungles could work, but the syrians lack resources for it

https://www.google.co.in/maps/place/Ebl ... d36.798749
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

Jan 10 2018 map by moon of alabama

Image
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by chanakyaa »

Singha wrote:....would like to see a small but powerful AQ caliphate in Idlib (levantine TSP) to keep a check on russia, iran, assad and hezbollah. so idea will be to hold out in Idlib and give a bloody nose to the manpower starved SAA and war fatigued syrian population to make them sue for peace, ease assad out via some election and establish self rule in Idlib followed by escalating levels of Sharia and violence until damascus rulers lose control of it just as Baghdad's weak initial rulers lost control of anbar and the north....
Singha saar, great work with all the updates. If all those videos posted on Southfront and Liveleak are real and current, it is simply amazing to see how a bunch of ragtag army of opposition groups can be kept motivated, for over 3+ years, towards a cause, which may not be consistent across groups. Especially when they (Da-esh, Eyeshish, and Oppn) clearly see that their existence can be very binary, given the rough response of SAA or RuAF. There is got to be more than a confirmed reservation in heaven with VIP passes for unlimited services from virgins. In the meantime, Erdo is getting ready Syria operation may start at any moment: Turkish leader
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

just yesterday a huge truckload of cash hidden in red cross ICRC boxes was captured in syria.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

South idlib is deadlocked with both sides pouring in
Men and materials. Jihadis have denuded the aleppo front to fill out south idlib with thousands of warriors

Hope the syrians can manage the killer blow from western aleppo, going through ei ais and threatening idlib directly while the orcs are tied down in south. A couple of well supported brigades could slice through this 50km patch in 2 days,
Using gunships and artillery to rout atgm positions
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by deejay »

It is rumored that many of the Jihadi in Idlib could be Turkish regulars.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

under the guise of preparing to fight kurds, erdogan is pushing in men , money and weapons on large scale.
many could be inactive turkoman units from north of aleppo now driven around Idlib on turkish side and put to work in Idlib.

meantime rumours that under a secret deal with US, the YPG/SDF has been given manpads...

syria may not be able to break the deadlock unless they open the 100km long western side Al-ghab front with multiple attacks from latakia side to draw away and spread the enemy thin. as it stand, they do not have any proper armour brigades to punch through the lines and destroy the enemy's logistical network , nor masses of infantry to flood into the gaps opened...nor any dense artillery strength.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

france feeling the heat even from jailed radicals
https://sputniknews.com/europe/20180116 ... ch-prison/
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Philip »

Motivation? Vitamin M! Huge amounts of cash are being dumped onto the Syrian opposition's heads.US audits found massive missing numbers.In Iraq billions were untraceable.Planes flew in carrying tons of cash to bribe Saddam's resistance fighters.There was a TV documentary on the Iraqi swindle, possibly the greater theft of actual cash in history.

There was one recent report of a threat from the Sultan of decimating the anti-Syrian Oppn.Any idea why?
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

Different factions are funded by turkey, qatar and saudi arabia
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

SAA from aleppo side are about to close the gap at abu duhur

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

usual tiger forces tactics of surrounding from 3 sides and leaving 4th side open...putting psychological pressure to escape...used with great success in the deir hafr/maskanah plain campaign SE of aleppo against ISIS.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Karan M »

one thing is for sure. the israelis crushed an opponent. they and the saudis are the real kingmakers of middle east.
iran is next, its only a matter of time. for all the public spats, US establishment backed the israeli plan to take down the syrians for all their support of hezb, hamas etc in the israeli lebanon war.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

for all the crushing it did, hamas still exists and hezbollah is stronger than ever, after giving the famed merkavas a bloody nose in the ravines in 2006 and spreading some FUD in the inexperienced IDF units sent to "bring them down by scruff of neck"

and russia has entered the fray as a ultimate guarantor of the damascus govts existence and got itself a permanent base next to vital NATO areas near the bosporus and the large bases in crete (akitori) and piraeus(athens).

wuff wuff saar, but does sound like the grand plan had unintended consequences. not that it was a not a good and devious plan but (a) the syrians elites rallied around assad (b) turkey started double and triple crossing (c) turkey-kurd issues remain unresolved (d) the iraqi PMU routed the ISIS and held firm (e) SAA and hezbollah did not disintegrate but kept fighting (f) russia muscled in as a player at the table
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Avarachan »

Karan M wrote:one thing is for sure. the israelis crushed an opponent. they and the saudis are the real kingmakers of middle east.
iran is next, its only a matter of time. for all the public spats, US establishment backed the israeli plan to take down the syrians for all their support of hezb, hamas etc in the israeli lebanon war.
Hezbollah is stronger than it's ever been. And make no mistake, Hezbollah defeated Israel in the 2006 war. For those who doubt that, I recommend studying the Battle of Bint Jbeil. (Make sure to read the perspectives of both sides.)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bint_Jbeil
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

if the FSA had offered a smooth transition for the syrian military or business elite and just "get assad out" it might have worked.
but FSA quickly morphed into AQ and part of that went and joined ISIS. the options then became just conversion or death. some factions were "soft" in offering conversion to alawites , shias and druze and some wanted to kill them all.

by its nature sunni extremists cannot work out a peaceful co-existence with any other system - either its total dominance and purity or nothing.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Lisa »

Avarachan wrote:
Karan M wrote:one thing is for sure. the israelis crushed an opponent. they and the saudis are the real kingmakers of middle east.
iran is next, its only a matter of time. for all the public spats, US establishment backed the israeli plan to take down the syrians for all their support of hezb, hamas etc in the israeli lebanon war.
Hezbollah is stronger than it's ever been. And make no mistake, Hezbollah defeated Israel in the 2006 war. For those who doubt that, I recommend studying the Battle of Bint Jbeil. (Make sure to read the perspectives of both sides.)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bint_Jbeil
There has barely been a peep from the northern border since that war. Strange how even Hamas fire more rockets from Gaza than the whole of Lebanon.

When Fouad Siniora was told of Hezbollah's adventure he retorted, "they have opened the gates of hell". Hezbollah's pin drop silence is testament to that fact. More to the point if they did so well why does that coward Hassan Nasrallah not show his face in public even now in his OWN country?
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

hezbollah has no real ambitions of territorial conquest in israeli areas.
they want to run the show behind the scenes in lebanon and also the deep state in syria and afaik they are doing it.
they retain the capability to resist any israeli ground incursions.

the kind of invasion that israel did in lebanon did it achieve any long term gains?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Lebanon_War
More than 14,000 PLO combatants evacuated the country in August and September, supervised by the Multinational Force in Lebanon, an international peacekeeping force with troops from the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Italy. About 6,500 Fatah fighters relocated from Beirut to Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Sudan, both North and South Yemen, Greece, and Tunisia—the latter of which became the new PLO headquarters.

^^^ where did all these 20500 combatants go, did they all become neo citizens of new lands or promptly filter back as soon as the israelis withdrew?
did the defeat of the PLO make hezbollah stronger?
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Lisa »

Hezbollah's lack of territorial conquest has nothing to do with ambition, its to do with brains and brawn. They lack both. With regards to their intent, lets ask ourselves why they went to war in 2006. It was to secure the release of Samir Kuntar. Look him up when you have time

"Kuntar and his team broke into an apartment building and kidnapped a father, 31-year-old Danny Haran, and his 4-year-old daughter, Einat, taking them to a nearby beach. According to eyewitnesses and forensic reports, Kuntar shot Danny to death at close range, and then killed the girl Einat by smashing her skull against the rocks with the butt of his rifle. "

For this one man they allowed almost 1500 people to die. This is the nature of their cowardice AND stupidity. Long may they reign in Lebanon. With regards to the results of the war and the previous one in 1982, how come Kiryat Shmona has not had ANY rocket attacks since 1982 (barring obviously the ones in the war of 2006 that was imposed upon them) compared to DAILY attacks since 1970. Its because the Israelis have DESTROYED the opposing forces.

Hezbollah and their clique were cowards before 1982, in 2006 and have maintained consistency even today.

For the Israelis, they have a secure and peaceful border in the north. All they have really wanted all along.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Austin »

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by sudhan »

Looks like Turkey is preparing for a throwdown with the Kurds in Syria..
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

Kurds have reinforced afrin by sending forces through saa areas in aleppo. This is reciprocal system for govt road access via manbij to hasakah
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by chanakyaa »

deejay
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by deejay »

Reports of US backed fighters raising Assad posters in Raqqa. I guess Kurds did go to Afrin via SAA held Alleppo
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

seems to be 1 guy with face hidden, not a nuremberg type rally
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/br ... ity-video/
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Philip »

I remember a former PM snorting in derision at a private dinner when the chatter discussed the prospect of "Arab unity". It will require a miracle from the heavens for that to happen.When the Saudi monarchy itself is backstabbing the desert "familia" fat chance Arab nations even in the Sunni sector are sparring,
Qatar- Saudi / Gulfie spat for example.It was only the late Egyptian leader Gamal Nasser who was able to unite the Arabs against Israel.But they were overconfident and the Israelis possessed that vital asset, superior Intel.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

from the ashes of the old shall emerge a new order...

al masdar news

BEIRUT, LEBANON (5:04 A.M.) – Following the full withdrawal of armed rebel groups from northeast Hama and southwest Aleppo provinces, ISIS has filled the vacuum, sending out forces to capture the dozens of abandoned towns and villages and in doing so has de facto established a new empire – this one in Syria’s northwest.

According to opposition sources, ISIS has – capitalizing on the total withdrawal of rival jihadist fighters from countryside of northeast Hama and southwest Aleppo – taken control of some thirty towns and villages in northwest Syria during the last 12 hours.


The settlements have been identified as Rasm al-Dhaba, Al-Muwaylah, Abu Ajwa, Muakar Shamali, Rasm al-Basl, Tawrat, Mushirifah, Rasm Arira, Qarat Rubua’, Thaniyat al-Sawan, Zaghir, Abu Mahalah, Al-Hanin, Al-Janina, Al-Khatabiyah, Luwaybidah, Al-Jadidah, Nafha, Andarin, Al-Samaqiyah, Huma, Najm al-Zuhur, Umm Qurun, Al-Mashulkhiyah, Al-Halibiyah, Al-Salihiyah, Abu Khanadiq, Umm Aj, Malihah Saghirah and Awijat al-Qana.

Despite the great sweep, it appears that the Islamic State’s new empire in northwest Syria may very well find itself encircled by the Syrian Arab Army during the days or weeks to come, with pro-government forces now about two kilometers from linking its Aleppo front with its Idlib front and thus completely sealing off northeast Hama and southwest Aleppo.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Parasu »

After taking blessings from Moscow, Jihadi Erdogan has launched his operation in Afrin against the Kurds.
The Syrians have threatened to shoot down Turkish planes. The Russians have moved their military observers away from where conflict could take place to ensure their supporters can claim `no Russian involvement`.
Roosis are smart when it comes to supporting terrorists like Erdogan.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/r ... 08957.html
Ahmet Berat Conkar, a ruling party MP and head of the Turkish delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, said: "Russia is taking steps to move its forces in Afrin away from the areas where there might be clashes [during Turkey's operation."
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Y. Kanan »

To prevail in Syria, that was the devil's bargain Russia had to make with Turkey: screw the Kurds in exchange for Turkey backing off regime change. Russia probably gave Turkey this choice: back off Syria, or Russia throws its full support to the Kurds. Cooperate in Syria, and Russia sells the Kurds down the river. With Russia unable to muster very much combat power in theatre, this was the only way they could neutralize the Turks.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by IndraD »

seriously what double game is Russia into?
-green signal to turks in taking over Kurds in Afrin
-Support to Syrian regime as well, Sy threatening to shoot down Turkey plan
-obviously two can;t go hand in hand
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Y. Kanan »

Like I said, Russia probably made a secret pact with Turkey giving them green light to take Afrin and continue their other, ongoing military campaigns on the east syrian kurds as wel. In exchange, Turkey gives up on Syrian regime change permanently (as national policy).

Russia will just watch Syria and Turkey skirmish in Afrin but stay out of it. They could even tell Damascus to stand down, at least officially, while turning a blind eye to Syrian air defenses taking potshots at Turkish planes and other types of low-level skirmishing.

I'm sure Damascus can accept the permanent loss of Afrin. They effectively gave up on both Afrin and the NE Kurd territories a long time ago, knowing those lands would never again be Syrian. For the Syrian leadership, it must surely have been a foregone conclusion, early on, that both those regions were lost. They were destined to end up under Kurd control or occupied by someone else.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

Abu duhur has fallen

The gap to aleppo side is also closed
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

Al masdar news

BEIRUT, LEBANON (12:30 P.M.) – The Turkish-backed rebels seem uninterested in defending the eastern part of the Idlib Governorate, as thousands of their fighters prepare to storm the YPG-held Afrin Canton.

Over the last 48 hours, the Turkish-backed rebels have sent a large number of reinforcements to the Afrin Canton, despite the fact they are losing a lot of ground in the Idlib Governorate to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Islamic State (ISIS).

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Making matters worse for their forces in Idlib, the Turkish-backed rebels appear to have conceded the Abu Dhuhour Military Airport, which was once their largest base in the eastern part of the province.

With Turkey focused on Afrin, the rebel forces have no choice but to take the war to the Kurdish YPG in northwestern Aleppo, even if that means losing half of the Idlib Governorate
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Karan M »

hezb and hamas were propped up by syria and iran
now syria is not there and regime is embroiled in civil war. Israelis didnt count on russian support and that messed up the whole plan. so some gains but not as planned.

Singha wrote:hezbollah has no real ambitions of territorial conquest in israeli areas.
they want to run the show behind the scenes in lebanon and also the deep state in syria and afaik they are doing it.
they retain the capability to resist any israeli ground incursions.

the kind of invasion that israel did in lebanon did it achieve any long term gains?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Lebanon_War
More than 14,000 PLO combatants evacuated the country in August and September, supervised by the Multinational Force in Lebanon, an international peacekeeping force with troops from the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Italy. About 6,500 Fatah fighters relocated from Beirut to Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Sudan, both North and South Yemen, Greece, and Tunisia—the latter of which became the new PLO headquarters.

^^^ where did all these 20500 combatants go, did they all become neo citizens of new lands or promptly filter back as soon as the israelis withdrew?
did the defeat of the PLO make hezbollah stronger?
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Singha »

Will usaf now release the b52s on rebels that seek to attack afrin?
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