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Levant crisis - III

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 10 Sep 2017 08:25

this thardeh hill overlooks the airport. once its taken and some farms east of the airport , I imagine IL76 and helicopters can safely operate supply missions as they used to do before ISIS closed in.

I expect the syrians will move gunships and L39 CAS birds there to have much more time over battle areas.

and they will rebuild artillery positions to pound anything that comes close. the AFB unloaded 500 mortar shells yesterday on ISIS heads to "greet" them of the new rules in town.

running away to mayadin and building lines there is only option for ISIS , but they will face a 2 front attack from saa and sdf soon.

also Madaan between raqqa and dez is in imminent risk of being islanded due to SDF move south yesterday

its tough being a isis rat in eastern syria these days

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 10 Sep 2017 12:12

those ISIS emirs which the russians allege were taken away by air from dez this week by nato heli

i suspect some deal is being worked out for ISIS to vanish asap from the eastern shore to facilitate the SDF advance to omar oil fields with no opposition ? they advanced 20 km in one day on two known roads with no word on any fighting, not exactly a heavily fortified front was it?

other than manbij and raqqa the SDF has not had to fight one serious battle to capture a vast swathe of territory. it is always suspiciously fast when they move while saa slogs to cover the same distance with better eqpt and more trained soldiers.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 10 Sep 2017 18:52

Smells to the heavens a sellout ?

Muraselon news

The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces Alliance reached an industrial zone miles to the east of Deir al-Zor city in rapid advances against Islamic State militants on Sunday, it said in a statement.

The SDF announced on Saturday it had launched an operation against the jihadists in northern and eastern parts of Deir al-Zor province, which borders Iraq.

The advances bring the SDF to within 15 km (10 miles) of the Syrian army and its allies, which this week broke a years-long Islamic State siege of government-held parts of Deir al-Zor on the other side of the Euphrates river.

Reuters.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 10 Sep 2017 19:34


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby deejay » 10 Sep 2017 21:43

Al Masdar reports that 03 Jabal Thardehhill tops have been captured. That means that going forward DeZ air base can become operative.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-takes-major-mountain-south-deir-ezzor/

According to a military source, Army troops simultaneously attacked Thardeh mountains from two axes; the Panorama to the west and al-Taym Oil Field to the south-west.

Thardeh mountains – which consists of three major hilltops – bears a strategic importance for it serves as the main defense line for the Airbase.

“By recapturing the mountain, the Deir Ezzor Airbase – which has been under ISIS siege for nearly 9 months – will be operational again,” the same source added.

On September 17, 2016, the US-coalition bombed the Syrian Army troops stationed in Thadeh Mountain where dozens of soldiers have been tragically killed and wounded. This had resulted in the Islamic States jihadists taking over the mountain range.

Meanwhile, a unit of the Syrian Army’s elite Tiger Forces broke into the ISIS-held districts of Al-Baghiliyah and Aiyash located in the western flanks of Deir Ezzor.

At least 20 ISIS jihadists have been killed, 2 tanks and 2 pickup trucks destroyed so far in this offensive.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby deejay » 10 Sep 2017 21:46

A 30 min documentary from ANNA with English subtitles on the breaking of siege at DeZ and meeting not just the SAA but the Shaitat militia at DeZ. Good video of the moving frontline.


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Shanmukh » 10 Sep 2017 22:08



Does this mean that the Shia crescent is toast? Or do the SAA & its affiliates control any part of the Iraq border?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 10 Sep 2017 22:34

Beautiful and haunting work

They will control most of anbar border

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Shanmukh » 10 Sep 2017 22:40

@Singha,
If the ISIS evaporate & SDF/FSA take over the Anbar border, won't it blow US credibility about ISIS to pieces? Thus far, they maintained some amount of plausible deniability, no?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Sep 2017 06:39

Wow! That was some movie.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 07:07

>>If the ISIS evaporate & SDF/FSA take over the Anbar border

what i meant was they cant. by virtue of latest advance they could capture some of the nineveh border. but not the huge line that goes through al tanf to al qaim. the saa/hezbollah are very much camped on that border and T2 presently. it is SOUTH of the euphrates.

the iraqis will come there after cleaning up the Hawija region - it will be the last part of iraq to be cleansed of isis the al-rutba,al qaim, haditha triangle and the vast desert tracts in between. isis are quite strong there and have carried numerous deadly raids on isolated iraqi posts.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Sep 2017 07:07

Leith Abou Fadel‏Verified account @leithfadel 17h17 hours ago

Panorama area fully liberated. Sukhnah-Deir Ezzor Highway under full government control

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Sep 2017 07:09

The thing that strikes me, Singhaji, is how thin these forces are. Two guys maybe with ATGMs, a few pickups with guns, about 3 actual artillery pieces, maybe 5 tanks....
When they "liberate" a city, they don't have hundreds of troops to go combing the houses, or keeping up roadblocks everywhere. Amazing how few they are. Of course Gen. Vodkov's planes provide a Force Multiplier.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 07:15

it is a new mode of warfare adjusting for vast areas and lack of soldiers - fast moving pickups, hit and run raiders, no fixed lines, embedded SF units calling in air power .... think of how the northern alliance got to kabul - all they had were foot soldiers, RPGs and mortars and mostly in trucks no IFV/tanks/artillery ... they were even more poorly equipped. B52 and B1 cleared the way albeit the taliban were much weaker than ISIS.

for a advance to a town the size of Deir azzor, a traditional army like India would use atleast 2 indep armour brigades, 2 infantry brigades and huge logisitical tail back to depots in Palmyra which is nearly 200km away and Homs is even further back.

ISIS looks more deadly than it is for lack of a conventional opposing army and because they do not give battle to such forces where they exist like in iraq.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 07:15

it is a new mode of warfare adjusting for vast areas and lack of soldiers - fast moving pickups, hit and run raiders, no fixed lines, embedded SF units calling in air power .... think of how the northern alliance got to kabul - all they had were foot soldiers, RPGs and mortars and mostly in trucks no IFV/tanks/artillery ... they were even more poorly equipped. B52 and B1 cleared the way albeit the taliban were much weaker than ISIS.

for a advance to a town the size of Deir azzor, a traditional army like India would use atleast 2 indep armour brigades, 2 infantry brigades and huge logisitical tail back to depots in Palmyra which is nearly 200km away and Homs is even further back.

ISIS looks more deadly than it is for lack of a conventional opposing army and because they do not give battle to such forces where they exist like in iraq.

as you see from numerous missed tank shots in the video its very hard if not impossible for soviet era FCS systems to hit speedy pickup trucks going in a T even if tank is static. move on move is even more impossible. ATGMs are only thing that can stop VBIEDs and sometimes lucky ZSU23-2 technicals. syrians use metis and kornets and kurds use milans. both keep them on overwatch at night halts and static checkpoints all the time. and if possible a bulldozer digs up a ditch and berm esp at checkpoints. some of the tiger units even lay minefields around their positions...and certainly static lines like DEZ had mines hence the trawl (could see one go off in video)

its been a painful process of learning how to beat SVBIED for mobile forces without luxury of fixed sand filled 'hex bag' defences but it has been done.

there is nothing ISIS has that can scare the YPG or SAA now. the game is going to be over.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Sep 2017 07:24

Yet the Syrian Army was as of a few years ago, a very conventional force. They are operating in this manner due to force of circumstance. Small teams that basically count on themselves for survival, very little dependence on immediate orders from Damascus or some Divisional HQ far behind the lines except for Gen. Vodkov's control rooms. Imagine what could happen if a large army (like India's) were to be this mobile, and trained into such small independent units for operations in, say, Uttar Dharmasala or eastern Myanmar up to Kunming.

You know what I am terrified about: It is trivial to convert those VBIEDs to operate without a human driver. Deadly against any sort of concentrated force / wooden-headed what-what RedCoat-derived army that uses lorries to transport troops.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 11 Sep 2017 07:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 07:28

I have always worried if kashmiri or SIMI types graduate into VBIEDs. impossible to sniff out among lakhs of commercial vehicles moving in indian streets. one such in a crowded market would be total carnage.
no need for remote, they would just park and leave it with a short timer.

seems to be no mobile field kitchens either - just dry food and fruits carried in 4x4. in more populated areas of syria they get the local villagers to run fresh food supply from temp kitchens and provide packed lunches.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Sep 2017 07:29

Or into an Army/ITBP/CRP camp. With a killer team following it.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 07:36

the syrian army had these huge conventional bases in raqqa (division 17), DEZ (multiple), hasekeh, aleppo and pretty much was run like a regular army like IA. having lost all those bases, logistics, people they have become totally 'feral' and 'untethered' as you said and just found ways to survive and work with limited means.

the video said DEZ was down to 2 tanks.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 07:53

SAA SDF panchsheel excerpt

http://theregion.org/article/11510-defe ... ir-ez-zour
Will the SDF run into conflict with the Syrian Arab Army?

Both the Syrian Arab Army and the SDF are approaching Deir ez-Zour province to defeat IS in one of its last strongholds.

The Russian government is backing the Syrian government and it’s militias which recently broke the ISIS siege on a Syrian army brigade. The brigade was stranded in the city of Deir ez-Zor for the last three years.

The US coalition, consisting of the SDF and its regional partners, are also approaching areas under IS control in Deir Ez-Zor. Efforts are currently underway to ensure that they don’t run into conflict along the way.

It seems that the Russians and Americans have reached an agreement; the Syrian government will focus on the city of Deir ez-Zor, while the SDF will fight in what coalition officials called the MERV region, the Middle Euphrates River Valley. This is how coalition forces are trying to make sure no clashes will happen between the SDF and the militias of the Syrian regime.

Clashes between the two forces have happened in the past. During the Raqqa operation, the two exchanged fire in South Raqqa. But learning from past mistakes, the US-led coalition has agreed to deconflict.


“We do monitor and watch and see, you know, where they are and where they're going. And at the same time, as they move closer into the Middle Euphrates River Valley, like into Deir ez-Zor, and -- we deconflict with the -- the Russians,” the coalition spokesperson said.

Colonel Dillon also added that both the US coalition and Russian backed forces would pay close attention to the deconfliction line that run south of Tabqa and parallel to the Euphrates River.

“We will continue to deconflict and, as necessary and as required, we'll continue to draw a -- that line, if you will, further on down the Middle Euphrates River Valley, if necessary,” he concluded.

The coalition says that throughout the operation, it will work along two corridors, while civilians will be evacuated to SDF-controlled safe areas.

---
and then the obligatory indo pak cashmere statement in the end::
“The Coalition is prepared to wage the counter-ISIS campaign into the heart of Deir ez-Zor governorate. Coalition planners have rightly expressed skepticism that Assad's forces and his allies have the capability to defeat ISIS there in a timely manner” Heras told The Region.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 07:55

Lucio Cienfuegos‏ @comcen76 8h8 hours ago
More
North of Deir ez Zor
Situation Map September 10

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 07:56

the point where the euphrates and khobar river meet is the current ISIS HQ Mayadin and omar oil field on east bank.

nato+SDF are aiming to take this triangular piece of territory - for now. might reveal bigger aims later. a bit east of the khobar river and parallel to it is the iraqi border.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 11 Sep 2017 08:44

deejay wrote:A 30 min documentary from ANNA with English subtitles on the breaking of siege at DeZ and meeting not just the SAA but the Shaitat militia at DeZ. Good video of the moving frontline.



WoW Amazing Documentary , Thanks for posting

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby deejay » 11 Sep 2017 10:58

Singha wrote:I have always worried if kashmiri or SIMI types graduate into VBIEDs. impossible to sniff out among lakhs of commercial vehicles moving in indian streets. one such in a crowded market would be total carnage.
no need for remote, they would just park and leave it with a short timer.

...


Now that you mention remote controlled check this...

https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/907103320002777088

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 11:54

^^ no ponderous global tender and TOT clauses I assume!

Liu Hao‏ @liuhaosg 50m50 minutes ago
Replying to @IvanSidorenko1
i no syrian/no position to make judgement. bt as liwa al qud said: "A country you dont protecct, is a country you dont deserve to live in."

illmudi 1h1 hour ago
More
Retweeted Ivan Sidorenko
Gn. Zahredine- to those who left syria, stay away, the gov't might forgive you, but we won't forgive or forget, this is my advice to you.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 11:56

rats gearing up to fight inside the city

Ivan Sidorenko‏ @IvanSidorenko1 1h1 hour ago
More
#Syria #DeirEzZor Activist say Large Mobilization of #ISIS #Daesh Fighters & unprecendented spread of fighters inside the city this morning

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 12:04

DEZ urban town (west bank) is 12km long x 2 km wide. the Govt maybe hold 1/3 of this. so a big 16 sq km on west bank and everything on outlying colonies in east bank has to be regained

the colonies do not look as insanely crowded as Old mosul more like newer parts of mosul.

ISIS would want to hunker down and fight hard for months as in raqqa. its bigger city than raqqa for sure.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Philip » 11 Sep 2017 14:09

This is "Mad Max" warfare.The films were prophetic. One can even go back to WW2 and Rommel in the desert.In N.Africa,the lines of control swung back and forth.Vast areas were traded in turn. Some would even reminisce about the topsy-turvy battles on the Coromandel coast between the English and Dupleix,where the dark granite columns that adorn the main building at Fort St.George,now housing the TN Assembly,travelled from Madras to Pondicherry and back with each victory! The Carnatic wars saw the emergence of a young Robert Clive as a military leader too.

However,Mad max comes to mind more with the varied improvised mil. vehicles by ISIS,mounting weapons of various kinds onto all manner of wheeled vehicles. The Russian meshing of air power with the mobile ground forces,swatting anything of the enemy that moved below,proved decisive. Russian ISR and intel capability was a revelation.One expected that the Yanqui led front with all its tech,spy sats,et.,ad nauseum,would've been able to locate and destroy the key leadership and command centres of ISIS,but it never happened in two years of "fighting". The Russians in a few months turned the tide decisively using mainly Sov. era weaponry which have proved their worth in the 21st century and are being given extended lease of life for systems like the Bear bombers (60 yrd old),SU+25s,legacy MBTs,and many warships and subs dating back from that era equipped with new era Kalibir LRCMs.

However,at some points of time the key cities and towns,oilfields,etc., must be under Syrian govt. control which will require troops and security forces "anchoring" control of these key entities. For intel/surveillance purposes UAVs offer an easy and cheap solution,but to combat any infiltration and resurgence of ISIS units would require special force units that require airborne capability and an enhanced Syrian air force to take up more responsibility from the Russians who would want to downsize their role in the country.The only way Syria can find the resources to do this is to export as much of oil that it can from its re-captured oilfields.The operations of which should be smooth and not under atatck from the so-called Syrian "rebels" -the mercenary forces of the West and Saudi Barbarian alliance.To forestall that,the role of Iran would be crucial in "seeding" its allied Shiite forces where needed most.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 14:50

sauds are trying to incite a cleavage between iran and iraq by paying off some politicians in baghdad.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 18:50

Leith Abou Fadel‏Verified account @leithfadel 59m59 minutes ago
Iranian military presence in southern Syria has increased over the last two weeks. Seems like they are actively trying to piss off Israel.

Leith Abou Fadel‏Verified account @leithfadel 1h1 hour ago
Syrian military is not giving up on Tanf. Source says they want the US Coalition gone ASAP.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 11 Sep 2017 22:24

https://joeylshop.com/

watch the trailer here

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Sep 2017 07:39

PCness being forced by MSM/politicians on the old warrior
he had meant social ostracism for the bhagoras, but this was twisted to mean 'he would hunt them down'
shades of the whole 'namo/yogi' thing....

Al masdar::
Syrian general issues clarification statement about refugees:

The prominent Syrian general was accused by western and pro-opposition publications of threatening to kill any refugee that returned to Syria.

However, General Zahreddine clarified his stance on Monday, stressing that he meant all those who took up arms against the army are not welcome back to Syria.

The Syrian general is currently deployed in the Deir Ezzor Governorate, where he is leading his elite 104th Airborne Brigade of the Republican Guard against the so-called Islamic State.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Sep 2017 07:42

Shams jihadis graduate new special forces batch
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ji ... hern-homs/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Sep 2017 07:54

approx 500 die hards remain in east hama and refuse to surrender
Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Sep 2017 08:00

150 trucks of weapons and ammo sent to SDF
https://twitter.com/sheihkmos1987/statu ... 5927390209

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Sep 2017 08:01

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/worl ... -tgpbgx9m6
The old Turk came to the Syrian matchmaker with a wish list: his second wife should have green eyes, and be tall, white-skinned and no older than 17. He would pay well: more than £2,000 if the right girl could be found.

But he did not plan to stay married for long. Like many of the Turkish men who purchase Syrian teenage refugees as second wives, he would divorce her after a few months, once he had tired of her.

“The man wanted to have a good time,” said Mohammed Abu Jafar, the matchmaker, last week outside a hotel near Turkey’s border with Syria. “The woman’s family wanted money. That’s how it works.”

After six years of grinding civil war, almost 3m Syrian refugees live…

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby IndraD » 12 Sep 2017 16:51

Father Tom Uzhunnalil, Kerala priest abducted in Yemen, rescued from Islamic State's captivity http://www.firstpost.com/india/father-t ... 35457.html

Perhaps now pastors will realise there is price to pay for conversion in Middle East. That is not India.
His release was secured with the help of Omani intelligence placed in Yemen (twitter).
Pastor is currently placed in Muscat from where he will return to Kerala.
WHile in captivity he even released an emotional appeal /video to pope that he is not being taken seriously cos he is not Europen.
Eventually he was released by not European but Indian agencies.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Sep 2017 18:41

Al masdar news

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has told the Hurriyet daily that Ankara does not have any disagreements with Moscow over Syria.

“Currently, the process in Idlib is being run as we agreed with Russia. There are no disputes with Russia on it. No controversy was brought to the agenda during our meeting with Iran,” Erdogan said.

The Turkish leader said “healthy talks will continue following the Astana summit.” “The process is developing positively,” he said.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 12 Sep 2017 23:47

The'Nimr'Tiger Souria4Syrians 4m4 minutes ago
More
How many bullets have the YPG collectively fired so far in their "anti-ISIS" Deir Ezzor operation?

0
1 or 2 warning shots
Thousands! Heavy clashes!

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 13 Sep 2017 08:10

small groups of isis still roam in iraqi desert, striking isolated outposts
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/pi ... y-outpost/


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