Levant crisis - III

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kit
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by kit »

Cain Marko wrote:
kit wrote:
Turkey has S300 and has taken delivery of S400
S300?
my bad, i thought vodkov sold it to turkey at the same time it was sold to greece
kit
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by kit »

Y. Kanan wrote:
habal wrote:Brasco_Aad
@Brasco_Aad
·
1h
More and more Russian reinforcements have landend at Hmeymim Airbase (Latakia Governorate) today.

Russian Air Force Tu-154s have been flying almost non-stop between Russia and Syria these past 48 hours
If Erdogan is really as dumb as he appears to be, he might push on and then it's war between Turkey\jihadists\ISIS remnants on one side (with Isreali air support) and Syria\Russia\Iran\Kurds on the other side. Conventionally, Turkey could overwhelm the small Russian contingent in Syria, after all they have hundreds of modern combat aircraft vs a few dozen RuAF planes. But on the ground, it looks like this would be a real meat grinder for Turkey and its jihadi brigades.

Could Erdogan be that short-sighted?
Well if Erdogan is really hare-brained he could try and see what happens, i know he might think he can block the RuN sailing through the Bosphorus but they can stay in the Mediterranean and do what they do best
Parasu
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Parasu »

Russia understands jihadi Erdogan's need for security.
Kremlin hopes Turkey’s operation in Syria to be proportionate to security tasks
Asked how long Turkey’s operation might last Peskov replied: "It is hard to say anything about the timeframe.
:P
https://tass.com/politics/1083475

Erdogan's victorious armies have not left Afrin since March 2018. Perhaps, that could give the colluding Russians some idea about the timeframe.
UlanBatori
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by UlanBatori »

When it comes down to it, either the US or Russia can hammer a country with even 200 nukes and there's diddly-squat that anyone can do about it. Sanctions? Screaming on CNN? For someone who just killed 20 million people, those are "phoooey". Anyone with any sense at all must know that.
ramana
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by ramana »

Parasu wrote:Russia understands jihadi Erdogan's need for security.
Kremlin hopes Turkey’s operation in Syria to be proportionate to security tasks
Asked how long Turkey’s operation might last Peskov replied: "It is hard to say anything about the timeframe.
:P
https://tass.com/politics/1083475

Erdogan's victorious armies have not left Afrin since March 2018. Perhaps, that could give the colluding Russians some idea about the timeframe.

Read this along with news of Putin visit to KSA and being a royal guest in the royal palace.

And that Arabian Sea to Persian Gulf is back to colonial competition for sea ports.

Kaka is politely asking Erdogon to be gone from Northern Syria as he has Russian interests in the region.

He needs the warm water port to end the Great Game coinciding with BREXIT.
ramana
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by ramana »

UB If you think like Erdogan, he has a failing economy, has refugees (4M), his Islamist drive is failing, he needs to consolidate his image as a tough dictator.
Restoring Ottomans is failing.

Hence this drive against the PKK kurds in Syria.
Same time we see DT withdrawing from non core areas completing the pivot to Asia announced by Obama.

This is like Imperial Rome withdrawing from British isles etc in 400 AD.

So Erdogon rushes in to Northern Syria.

The differences are:

Unlike 400 AD there are other powers(Russia, China) ready to fill the vacuum.

And the theater is West Asia and not Western Europe.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by vishvak »

kit wrote:..
my bad, i thought vodkov sold it to turkey at the same time it was sold to greece
We should have bought the ones going to Turk lands on the way from Russia.
UlanBatori
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by UlanBatori »

The flaw in the reporting is the sequence. It was **NOT*** "Trump withdraws; Turkey invades. It was "Trump gets US troops out of the way just in time as Turkey invades". Trump merely pulled his men out of a no-win situation, and used standoff blunt threats to stop the Turks. The Deep State sh1ts in the Pentagon/SD want to keep Syria from reclaiming its oil assets, so they are trying to fix it so that the territory does not get liberated.

OTOH, the Russians and SAA moved with all available speed: going into a battle zone crammed into pickup trucks with the tank-carriers far behind. This was enabled by Gen. Smirnoff's swift deployment of the air cover for the No-Fly Zone. This sent Pence scurrying to win a "ceasefire" Cash More 1948 style. The Russians and SAA are not party to it, so it remains to be seen how they interpret it. It's already ceasefire ahead of them; lets see how fast and how far they can push the Turks and the FSA back. I don't think this is going to end without at least one convoy/ armored column getting smashed, with hundreds dead.

Don't count the See Ai Yeh out yet. Trump warned Erdogan not "to be a fool" but the death sentence may already have been passed at Langley. Remember, the coup was unfinished bjinej and a major blow to US H&D.

What would be the effect of a successful coup in Turkey, led by "secular" forces backed by See AI Yeh?
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by UlanBatori »

Turkey ceasefire working like a Paki ceasefire.
habal
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by habal »

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1183 ... 11072.html

These are the main points in the agreement between the #SDF and the Syrian government. #Syria

1/ The abolishment of the #SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), with all the current Kurdish forces and military groups joining the 5th Corps (Assault Legion) under Russian control

2/ A solid guarantee of full Kurdish rights in the new Syrian constitution with autonomy which will be agreed upon by Kurdish leadership & Syrian state.

cont
Cain Marko
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Cain Marko »

ramana wrote:UB If you think like Erdogan, he has a failing economy, has refugees (4M), his Islamist drive is failing, he needs to consolidate his image as a tough dictator.
Restoring Ottomans is failing.

Hence this drive against the PKK kurds in Syria.
Same time we see DT withdrawing from non core areas completing the pivot to Asia announced by Obama.

This is like Imperial Rome withdrawing from British isles etc in 400 AD.

So Erdogon rushes in to Northern Syria.

The differences are:

Unlike 400 AD there are other powers(Russia, China) ready to fill the vacuum.

And the theater is West Asia and not Western Europe.
So China has no issues being pesky in areas as far flung as the near East and India is being pawam in afpak...
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by hgupta »

UlanBatori wrote:The flaw in the reporting is the sequence. It was **NOT*** "Trump withdraws; Turkey invades. It was "Trump gets US troops out of the way just in time as Turkey invades". Trump merely pulled his men out of a no-win situation, and used standoff blunt threats to stop the Turks. The Deep State sh1ts in the Pentagon/SD want to keep Syria from reclaiming its oil assets, so they are trying to fix it so that the territory does not get liberated.
I am sorry but your logic is quite laughable. Notwithstanding Trump, no NATO country dare to attack a position where there are US military presence. The fallout is simply too great to risk that. Erdogan had been wanting to move into northern Syria but the presence of US military even with its very small size of 150 men was enough to deter Erdogan. Yes the potential wrath of the US is powerful enough to deter Erdogan or any other leader. For all of his talk, Erdogan is not crazy enough to risk Turkey's membership in NATO.

Trump green-lighted Turkey's entrance into northern Syria. There's no question about it.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Rony »

How US backstabbed the Kurds

The U.S. Spoiled a Deal That Might Have Saved the Kurds, Former Top Official Says
“We know that we would have to make painful compromises with Moscow and Bashar al-Assad if we go down the road of working with them,” the Kurdish commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) wrote in an op-ed published Sunday in Foreign Policy. “But if we have to choose between compromises and the genocide of our people, we will surely choose life for our people.”
Brett McGurk, who resigned as the presidential special envoy to the coalition against ISIS last December, told The Daily Beast on Sunday that such a move by the Syrian Kurds was predictable under the circumstances.

Even last year, when McGurk was still serving, Kurdish leaders in Syria were telling the Americans that if support for them and deterrence against a Turkish attack was not going to continue, they needed to make a deal with the Assad regime and Russia for protection. “We have given our road map to the Russians. We are just waiting on a decision,” one senior Kurdish official told The Washington Post.

McGurk said he supported that idea at a time when Trump already was talking about pulling out of Syria, but he met firm opposition within the administration. (Special Representative for Syria Engagement Jim Jeffrey, for one, “told the Kurds on multiple occasions, ‘we’ll manage Turkey, don’t make a deal with the [Assad] regime,’” according to a source familiar with the matter.) Then-National Security Adviser John Bolton and crew insisted the U.S. must stay in Syria until Iran was out, or at least on its way. (Representatives for Bolton, whom Trump fired last month, did not immediately reply to a request for comment. Neither did State Department spokespeople.)

Since McGurk’s resignation, he has stayed in touch with the members of the SDF and some contacts in the U.S. departments of state and defense. He says the Kurds asked repeatedly if the support and protection of the United States could be relied upon, and they were told repeatedly that the Americans had their backs.

But that was not the case.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Rony »

They are not even pretending anymore. The sell out is open.

https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/11 ... 7499965441
Briefed our @NATO Allies today about developments in Syria including the ceasefire between Turkey and YPG. This solution will save lives and contribute to long-term stability in the region. The United States and Turkey are committed to a peaceful, Turkish-controlled safe zone.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by UlanBatori »

hgupta wrote:I am sorry but your logic is quite laughable.
No need for apologies. It is good to see ppl who are easily amused.
Y. Kanan
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Y. Kanan »

Rony wrote:They are not even pretending anymore. The sell out is open.

https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/11 ... 7499965441
Briefed our @NATO Allies today about developments in Syria including the ceasefire between Turkey and YPG. This solution will save lives and contribute to long-term stability in the region. The United States and Turkey are committed to a peaceful, Turkish-controlled safe zone.
We're not seeing any indication so far that Putin is willing to give up any Syrian territory except perhaps Afrin region which they lost over a year ago. So with the SAA and Russians physically pouring into most of that buffer zone as we speak, how are the Turks supposed to take control? It's a setup.

This is a cynical last ditch ploy by the cabal to get Turkey and Russia into a shooting war.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Gyan »

Any latest maps, on who is where?

Has USA vacated area it held on border of Iraq & Syria populated by nice terrorists , Al Tanf or something
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Parasu »

Gyan wrote:Any latest maps, on who is where?

Has USA vacated area it held on border of Iraq & Syria populated by nice terrorists , Al Tanf or something
No
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Y. Kanan »

US ground troops will not enforce Syria 'safe zone'
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/ ... 06799.html

Isn't this imagined "Safe Zone" filling up with more Syrian, Kurdish and even Russian troops as we speak? If the US won't "enforce" this Safe Zone, this means the Turks have to do it.

Are there any indications the SDF, SAA or Russians are vacating the "Safe Zone"? I haven't seen any reports of that happening.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by habal »

Bouthaina Shaaban, Syria’s political and media advisor to the presidency, said the cease-fire reached between Turkey and the US in northern Syria is “vague.”

She also said there is nothing called a “safe zone” as it is an occupation of Syrian land by Turkey.

“Erdogan is an occupier of our land and he is an aggressor against our country.”

We deal with any illegitimate foreign presence on our country as an occupation.”

“there is no Russian mediation between the Syrian government and Turkey.”

She said the coordination between the Syrian government and its allies of Russia and Iran is “ongoing on a daily basis and there is complete trust between us.”
habal
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by habal »

Israel’s interest in U.S. Syria policy was on display in American politics this week.

129 Republicans voted to condemn the decision when the House voted by 354-60 on that resolution Wednesday.

Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer and House Majority leader Steny Hoyer said Trump’s move endangers Israel.

Rep. Lois Frankel of Florida said the decision forces the Kurds into the Iranian camp, and Israel is the loser.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar saying, “This is an outrageous thing that happened here…. Think about our other allies, Israel. How do they feel right now?

--------

Witty and funny line, from Syrian MP from Aleppo Fares Shehabi. The US Congress seems AIPAC approved.

Fares Shehabi
@ShehabiFares
·
Oct 18
Whenever you want to hear Israel’s opinion on Middle Eastern issues, listen to the US congress

-------

US Jewish Lobby Groups are in Shock!

Peace Now has published Yossi Alpher’s view that Israel is on its own now and civilians are at risk.

Israel Policy Forum, calls the decision a “disaster” for Israel.

Michael Koplow of Israel Policy Forum said “Israel is the clear loser.”

Former Netanyahu cabinet minister Naftali Bennett emphasized the We’re on our own theme:
The lesson for Israel is simple: The Jewish State will never put its fate in the hands of others, including our great friend, the USA.”
habal
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by habal »

Image
Image
By the time the SDF decides to let the SAA in, Turkey will control a significant part of kurdish areas
habal
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by habal »

U.N. Investigates Chemical Weapons Use by War Criminal Turkish Military in Syria

https://www yahoo com/news/u-n-investigates-possible-chemical-133342275.html

United Nations chemical-weapons inspectors announced that they are investigating whether Turkish forces used chemical weapons in their invasion of Syria, the Guardian reported Friday.

The Syrian Kurds accused Turkey of using white phosphorous chemical bombs against civilians during their recent invasion of northeastern Syria.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by habal »

Lebanon people are out in force protesting against the Lebanese Oligarchy.

Ali
@Ali_Kourani
·
19h
Southern Lebanese protestors burning the signs of AMAL Movement MPs’ house signs. Protests are cross-sectarian, from all backgrounds and regions. Class is the main uniting feature

Prime Minister Hariri’s posters are being torn down in his stronghold city of Tripoli, North Lebanon. It’s 12 AM and thousands are in the streets all across the country, protests expanding.
Y. Kanan
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Y. Kanan »

habal wrote:Israel’s interest in U.S. Syria policy was on display in American politics this week.

129 Republicans voted to condemn the decision when the House voted by 354-60 on that resolution Wednesday.

Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer and House Majority leader Steny Hoyer said Trump’s move endangers Israel.

Rep. Lois Frankel of Florida said the decision forces the Kurds into the Iranian camp, and Israel is the loser.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar saying, “This is an outrageous thing that happened here…. Think about our other allies, Israel. How do they feel right now?

--------

Witty and funny line, from Syrian MP from Aleppo Fares Shehabi. The US Congress seems AIPAC approved.

Fares Shehabi
@ShehabiFares
·
Oct 18
Whenever you want to hear Israel’s opinion on Middle Eastern issues, listen to the US congress

-------

US Jewish Lobby Groups are in Shock!

Peace Now has published Yossi Alpher’s view that Israel is on its own now and civilians are at risk.

Israel Policy Forum, calls the decision a “disaster” for Israel.

Michael Koplow of Israel Policy Forum said “Israel is the clear loser.”

Former Netanyahu cabinet minister Naftali Bennett emphasized the We’re on our own theme:
The lesson for Israel is simple: The Jewish State will never put its fate in the hands of others, including our great friend, the USA.”
Despite what appears to be a loss in Syria, I don't think the Jews have lost their death grip on US foreign policy. They are still firmly in control, because remember it's not just the ultra powerful Jew lobby; it's the also very powerful Saudi lobby working hand in glove with them on most issues.

The CIA, the Jews and Saudis had no problem working together to create ISIS, so anything is possible now. The US deep state, the Jews, the Saudis probably all agree on one thing: they're losing Syria and Yemen, so they must take their revenge elsewhere. They're going to hit the Shia Crescent again for sure, the question is where?

I say Iraq. Look for ISIS and/or a new Sunni revolution in western Iraq. This could happen even while US troops are still stationed there. If you look at the current news in Iraq this is already happening.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by UlanBatori »

Glad to see that the Kurds have food (to throw)
PROOF that they are also Russian Agints per u no hu.
Rony
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by Rony »

So Putin sold the area between Tell Abyad and Ras al-Ayn – up to 32 km inside Syrian territory to Ergogan and preserves the gains Ergogan and their jihadists made. It looks like comrade putin also supports caliph erdogans stalinesque demographic re-engineering which is carried out by the jihadists who earlier fought Damascus. Assad on his part talks about sovereignty every other minute but can’t do anything when putin sells syrian land to ergodan. :roll:
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by UlanBatori »

^^
Patience. Putin got the US out. And the Kurds disarmed/expelled/ bowing to Syria (or Turkey). The Turks have "promised" to get out once their safe zone is established. Best deal possible under the circumstances: Assad does not have the forces to police that border and do any of the above, let alone biss on the Turks right now.

So right now Turkish army is doing the job of the SAA to keep some form of peace in that area. Now the FSA and ISIS are still remaining problems: one will bring the other. For that Gen. Vodkov and his merry fliers are the right solution. Let's wait and see.
Remember: "Obama plays checkers. Putin plays chess". Thinking several moves ahead.

Even by RT.com assessments, the SAA's basic level of readiness and ability is about on par with those of the Kurds or FSA. They simply don't have the assets and they have been fighting for their lives continuously for 11 or 12 years. They need time to rebuild.
ramana
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by ramana »

At the surface level Syrian based Kurds appear to have lost.

Recall Kurds are located in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.

They cast their lot with Israel and Shah of Iran in the 60s.
Shah got deposed in late 70s.

Iraq Kurds got oppressed by Saddam.
Fall of Saddam gave them chance to create autonomous region.
Then ISIS was formed murkily.
This led to Syrian and Iraq Kurds getting together to fight the ISIS.

Meantime Turkish Kurds had a leftist movement under Ocalan who was arrested.
Now Turkish Kurds have the best chance to get self determination as they are 40 % of Turkish population.
So lets see how the future unfolds for the Kurds.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by UlanBatori »

Iraq requests that US forces keep moving

Assad visits Idlib frontline, vows to liberate all of Syria
The guy looks young!
“Erdogan is a thief and is now stealing our land,”Assad said, pledging to retake every last inch of the Syrian territory.
Speaking to Putin on the phone after the Sochi talks, the Syrian president welcomed the results of the talks, but said he will continue the fight terrorism “by all legitimate means.” He also stressed a “complete refusal” of any invasion into Syria, no matter the pretext, his office said in a statement...Ankara launched an incursion against Syrian Kurdish-led militias, which it considers to be terrorists, following Washington's decision to pull out the US troops stationed there. The Putin-Erdogan agreement on Tuesday effectively brought the Turkish ‘Operation Peace Spring’ to a halt. The Syrian army, supported by Russian military police, will now take control of a large part of the country’s border with Turkey – a plan that Moscow said has received “full support” of Damascus.
Erdogan decides that discretion is the better part of valor.
Turkey will not be launching a new offensive against Kurdish militias in northern Syria, following a five-day pause in hostilities and high-level talks in Moscow, Ankara’s Defense Ministry said.
Following lengthy talks on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed that Russian military police and Syrian servicemen will be deployed to northeastern Syria, targeted by Turkey in their ‘Operation Peace Spring.’
The Turkish Defense Ministry then said in a statement that there was “no need to carry out a new operation at this stage,” adding that the creation of a “peace corridor” in the border area would ensure the safe return of millions of displaced Syrians.
The agreement underscores Washington’s waning sway in the region and represents a positive step toward winding down a bloody years-long conflict, independent political analyst Ali Demidras told RT.
“The Sochi agreement has cemented the Russian-Turkish cooperation in Syria also effectively reducing the American influence in the country,” Demidras said. “United Syria has been secured.”
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by A_Gupta »

Ghar wapsi.
https://amp.france24.com/en/20191023-ir ... ssion=true
Iraqi Kurds turn to Zoroastrianism as faith, identity entwine
In a ceremony at an ancient, ruined temple in northern Iraq, Faiza Fuad joined a growing number of Kurds who are leaving Islam to embrace the faith of their ancestors -- Zoroastrianism.

Years of violence by the Islamic State jihadist group have left many disillusioned with Islam, while a much longer history of state oppression has pushed some in Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region to see the millennia-old religion as a way of reasserting their identity.

"After Kurds witnessed the brutality of IS, many started to rethink their faith," said Asrawan Qadrok, the faith's top priest in Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region.

During Fuad's conversion ritual in Darbandikhan, near the Iranian border, a high priest and his assistants wore white clothes representing purity and recited verses from the Zoroastrian holy book, the Avesta.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by UlanBatori »

This along the lines of what UBCN Long-Term Projections Group (aka Mijjile Group) had projected. Kurds, Yazidis, perhaps Assyrians - and eventually, Inshalla*, Shias, will see that they have no rights and no future under the predatory Sunni tyranny.

The trickle will turn into an avalanche as oil starts running out/ Peak Oil is seen to have hit, with production in free-fall with demand.
Ghar Vapasi needs to be readied in a much more sophisticated narrative, from Hanoi to Haifa as the scriptures say.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by A_Gupta »

‘The U.S. Should Have Committed to Its Promises’
A prominent Syrian-Kurdish leader, in an interview, says both America and its allies are now in a weaker position in the region after Donald Trump’s sudden military pullout.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... ew/600847/

Ahmed: It’s not trust. They will probably try to undermine us and arrest the leaders in our region, but we are confident in our strength, as well in the country that’s going to be sponsoring the negotiations between us and Assad.


Giglio: Which country is that?

Ahmed: Russia.

Giglio: Do you trust Russia?

Ahmed: They should bear responsibility. They wanted to be in the lead.

Giglio: They have bombed hospitals in Syria on purpose.

Ahmed: Yes, they did that. They did that against areas that they consider to be areas that have terrorists. I mean, I would say there is the possibility that they can commit crimes and massacres in our area, but why would they do that?

Giglio: In the past, when Russia called people in Syria terrorists, they sometimes meant U.S. allies among the opposition.

Ahmed: I agree with you. They might do something like that. But I don’t think so.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by mmasand »

DT to make a statement at 9am ET from White House. Spec Ops conducted an extensive mission in Idlib near Barisha. Believed that Baghdadi killed, DNA tests underway to confirm identity.

Somewhat strange that he chose Idlib to hide in, home of the Hurras al-Din - they absolutely hate Daesh.
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by tandav »

Breaking! Al Bagdadi ISIS leader self detonated a suicide vest and has been killed in a US raid in northwest Syria: DNA analysis to confirm

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/26/poli ... index.html
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by habal »

this is the 3rd time I'm hearing about his death.

First time russians claimed to have killed him in an air strike in raqqa.
Second time Syrians claimed to have killed him in an air strike in Deir ez zur.
Third time it is the americans who claim to have killed him in Idlib
Like a cat he seems to have 9 lives
6 more to go
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Post by UlanBatori »

Bag Daddy breaks St. Thomas' record. Buried in 4 places. Still way behind "Al Qaeda #3". But DT did break new ground in the faces of the nay-sayers. He explicitly thanks Russia, Syria (I think), Iraq, Turkey for overflight cooperation, intel. OrangeUtan basks in the glory. Apparently mission encountered gunfire coming in, which was 'terminated'.

"These ppl are smart: they don't use cellphones, they use the Internet, they use the Internet better than anyone other than Donald Trump.".

"Bagdaddy died crying, whimpering. Brought 3 kids to died with him: certain death" (Hmm.... HYOOMAN RITES!!! IMPEACH!! HE KILLED KIDS!!)

"They were greeted with a lot of firepower. Many of his people were killed, We lost nobody. But a canine that went into the tunnel was hurt."

Russians were very good. They said "thank you for telling us". They hate ISIS as much as we do.
Notified COTUS?
"We told some, not others. Washington leaks worse than any other country. I told our people not to tell other COTUS until our people were OUT, not just in". :rotfl:
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