Levant crisis - III

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby shiv » 25 Feb 2018 17:57

Singha wrote:hitler was not uniquely anti jew, most of the euro powers had been persecuting & discriminating on jews for 100s of years and hitler was against anyone perceived as non aryan, so he went after the romany's too and sent them to the gas chambers.

The entire "Aryan race" was invented simply for Europeans to gain an older history than the hated Semites/Jews than what they found in the Levant. Sorry to digress - but have you read my article?
https://t.co/Mek75mFmjI

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 25 Feb 2018 19:48

I read it now. Good work . Shared to my school alumni list

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 25 Feb 2018 20:01

Major General Mohammad Baqeri:
Iranian & Syrian governments will stick to the 30-day ceasefire approved by the UN Security Council,but certain parts of #Damascus suburbs are still under the control of the terrorists & operations to clear these areas from terrorists will continue.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 25 Feb 2018 21:03

SouthFront
SouthFront
@southfronteng
·
24 Feb
Al-Shabaab Group Attacks Presidential Palace In Somali Capital (link: http://dlvr.it/QHdYzW) dlvr.it/QHdYzW

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 25 Feb 2018 21:04

SouthFront
SouthFront
@southfronteng
·
22 Feb
Egyptian Army Destroys Hundreds Of ISIS Hideouts In Sinai Peninsula (Video, Photos) (link: http://dlvr.it/QHPcqc) dlvr.it/QHPcqc

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 25 Feb 2018 21:06

jaysh al islam launches a captured heavy rocket into damascus
https://southfront.org/jaysh-al-islam-s ... um=twitter

they have deep tunnels and quarries to hide these missiles

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 25 Feb 2018 21:30

TOW missile destroys syrian dozer in east ghouta

https://muraselon.com/en/2018/02/video- ... rn-ghouta/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 25 Feb 2018 21:32

UR77 meteorit unleashes hell on a axis of advance - its a pretty hard hitting piece of work in typical bear style. great for spreading some mayhem and FUD amidst the urban ruins.

https://muraselon.com/en/2018/02/video- ... -e-ghouta/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 25 Feb 2018 21:34

In the wake of the adoption of the UN resolution on a 30-day truce on Syrian territory, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed with France’s President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel the state of affairs in the Syrian East Ghouta, the region which had recently seen a drastic deterioration of the humanitarian situation.


During the phone conversation between the leaders the situation in East Ghouta and problems of providing humanitarian access to this and other regions of Syria were discussed, according to the Kremlin’s press service.

“Special attention was given to the fact that the cessation of military actions does not apply to the operations against terrorist groups,” the Kremlin said.
....
Earlier in the day, Iran echoed Russia’s stance and supported the provision of the resolution, which says that the truce in Syria does not cover terrorists in Eastern Ghouta, adding that militants would continue to be targeted by the Syrian army.

The telephone conversation comes after on February 24, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution introducing a 30-day truce on the whole Syrian territory to ensure the safe humanitarian deliverers and medical evacuation of those injured. However, the ceasefire regime does not cover military operations against Daesh, al-Qaeda, and Jabhat Fatah al Sham (formerly known as al-Nusra Front) terrorist groups.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 25 Feb 2018 21:36

God alone knows how they intend to separate the jaish al islam (the more "moderate" of the four horsemen), the ahrar al shams, the faylaq al rahman and the HTS ?

the SE corner that got hit by tigers today and surrounding farm areas is mainly JEI and its JEI which launches the heavier projectiles into damascus as they have control of these captured weapons. in the urban areas they control the southern part of the defensive line.

SAA have reportly been 'soft' on JEI in the past and went after Faylaq, in the hope that JEI would settle for a deal.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 26 Feb 2018 07:35

Jaish al islam have beaten back an attempt to cross a water canal, destroying the folding bridge, upturning one tank, capturing one t72 and a few soldiers. They claim to have inflicted some 70 casualties.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 26 Feb 2018 09:01

ahmed al nabhan (right of pic) who led the relief column of tiger forces into DEZ was martyred in east ghouta.
his nickname was "the cub" perhaps given his young age
he was a highly regarded 'group commander' of al nabhan group after his name.
the other well known one is Ali muhanna

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 26 Feb 2018 09:06

shows the focus of the govt air/arty attacks in red circles

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 26 Feb 2018 09:42

https://earth.google.com/web/@33.520989 ... 50558t,-0r

view of google earth on east ghouta. in the west you see the thick urban easily defended formidable defence line of kafr batna, ein tarma, jobar, irbin, hasrata, douma ... it was brilliant strategy by the jihadis then to capture such vital areas of the capital and sit tight using civilians as hostages. periodically women and kids are put in cages on the street and photographed to drive home that point. UN supplied lot of food which mostly they grabbed. so now like a cancer they are inside vital areas and daring the doctor to come and excise them without huring the body.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ields.html

these are the "freedom fighters" the west led by niki haley ji is all behind who do this

Image

Image


on extreme right the village of al nashabiyah which tigers managed to isolate and claim or cut off yesterday by sniping off that salient

along the bottom the water canal where a failed attempt at crossing was made yesterday

the syrians will be able to claim the eastern sparesely populated area by swarming in from all sides....for the western half complex aleppo style slice n dice to isolate each zone will need to be adopted to minimize loss of lives and civilians...pressure will need to be put to surrender...

they need to get a move on while russis do the diplomatic work of painting and tarring all the jihadi factions within as 'bad jihadis' and not 'good jihadis'

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 26 Feb 2018 09:54

REUTERS
Iraq court sentences 16 Turkish women to death for joining IS
Ahmed Rasheed
3 MIN READ

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - An Iraqi court has sentenced 16 Turkish women to death by hanging for joining Islamic State, a judiciary spokesman said on Sunday.

FILE PHOTO: A member of the Iraqi rapid response forces walks past a wall painted with the black flag commonly used by Islamic State militants, at a hospital damaged by clashes during a battle between Iraqi forces and Islamic State militants in the Wahda district of eastern Mosul, Iraq, January 8, 2017. REUTERS/Alaa Al-Marjani/File Photo
Iraq is conducting the trials of hundreds of foreign women who have been detained, with hundreds of their children, since August by Iraqi forces as Islamic State strongholds crumbled.

The central criminal court issued the sentences “after it was proven they belong to the Daesh terrorist group and after they confessed to marrying Daesh elements or providing members of the group with logistical aid or helping them carry out terrorist attacks,” said Judge Abdul-Sattar al-Birqdar, referring to the militant group using an Arabic acronym.


All the verdicts are subject to appeal, he told Reuters.

Thousands of foreigners have fought on behalf of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria since at least 2014. Many foreign women came - or were brought - from overseas to join the militants.

More than 1,300 women and children surrendered to Kurdish Peshmerga in August, after government forces expelled the jihadist group from the northern Iraqi city of Tal Afar. Their numbers have since swelled to about 1,700 as more foreign nationals surrendered or were captured during operations to root out the militants, according to aid officials.

Another Turkish woman was sentenced to death last week and 10 others of various nationalities to life in prison, all for alleged Islamic State membership.

A German woman was sentenced to death last month for belonging to the group and a Russian fighter was also sentenced to death in Iraq last year for joining the hardline group.

Iraq has handed over to Russia four women and 27 children suspected of having ties to the group, the foreign ministry said on Thursday, adding that they were “tricked” into joining the militants.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 26 Feb 2018 21:06

huge republic day type jihadi parade at unknown location, perhaps idlib

https://twitter.com/DocPakistan/status/ ... 33632?s=20

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 27 Feb 2018 09:22

daily 9am to 2pm truce in east ghouta, followed by war

tiger forces and srg fighting in the trenches with rifles and grenades on northern edge of the pocket
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/stat ... 6870788098

yesterday they lost many men in the maze of trenches and tunnels when they badly ambushed as seen in this jihadi video
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/stat ... 7561617408

meantime while the ongoing war between HTS vs Jaish al suriya(ie ahrar shams + jaish al islam) in idlib was ongoing, yet another faction named jaish al thawra has emerged to capture one town and loot weapons. this is a different unit from the more famous jaish al thuwar of the manbij SDF.
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/stat ... 4200509440
none have clue as to who this group is. could be some complex cats paw play by the govt itself rebadging some bandits , giving a packet of biryani and 500/- note and setting them loose for FUD

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Philip » 27 Feb 2018 10:44

Once again the desperate West,Britain in particular,is trying to propogate the "Grand Lie",that Syria is using chem weapons against the western-backed mercenaries,the so-called "rebels".who are being routed by the combined Syrian and militia forces with Russian air support.From the evidence of previous capturing of Syrian cities and towns earlier held by the rebels,evidence was found that it was the rebel forces who were stockpiling and manufacturing chem weapons supplied to them by their Arab Wahaabi and western sponsors.Painting the Syrians as the perpetrators of chem attacks,bringing large-scale intl. condemnation tainting the reputation of Assad and his regime,was one of the main reasons why the West was pushing for regime change in Syria .Other than that,there was no reason whatsoever for any removal of Assad,genuinely elected head of his country.After the rout of ISIS by the Syrian-Russian and Iranian militia forces,and the sputtering Ottoman forays proving little but of nuisance value to the regime,the West is increasingly desperate as the Syrians pick them off,their remaining strongholds one by one.Thus the Grand Lie about chem weapons,which "Boris the Buffoon", the Brit. Foreign Sec. is now trying to leverage so that he can add Little Britain's name to the list of ranting and raving white men,frothing at the mouth waiting to whack some poor non-white nation as is their habit.If Assad continues on his course,the western forces will be routed completely from Syria and suffer a humiliating blow to their already stained and tattered reputation.The entire region has been devastated by the US and West along with the Wahaabi forces of Sunni Islam led by the Soothis.Millions killed and millions of lives affected.The Soothis are now enmeshed in the Yemen,were after 3 years,the new Clown Prince who's usurped power in the kingdom,has just sacked his top mil. chiefs.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 29506.html

[quote][b]Boris Johnson 'backs air strikes' against Assad regime if has used chemical weapons in Eastern Ghouta[/b]
Foreign Secretary agrees there is case for 'limited strikes' if there is 'incontrovertible evidence of further use of chemical weapons'
Rob Merrick Deputy Political Editor

Boris Johnson 'backs air strikes' in Syria if chemical weapons are used
POPULAR VIDEOS

Boris Johnson appeared to back air strikes against the Assad regime if it has used chemical weapons in rebel-held eastern Ghouta, saying the West must not “stand idly by”.

Speaking in the Commons, the Foreign Secretary argued there was “no military solution that we can impose” to bring peace to war-torn Syria.

But Mr Johnson agreed there was a case for “limited strikes” if there was “incontrovertible evidence of further use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime or their supporters”.

He said many people believed the US “did the right thing” when it launched a cruise missile attack on a Syrian airfield last April in response to chemical weapon use. “I will certainly hope that the West does not stand idly by”, Mr Johnson told MPs.

The urgent question came after a week in which Syria’s army and its allies have inflicted one of the heaviest bombardments of the seven-year war on eastern Ghouta, an enclave outside Damascus, killing hundreds.

Local doctors and monitors have said a suspected chlorine attack in the rebel-held area left 18 people injured on Sunday evening.

The week-long carnage in the area has killed more than 500 people in air strikes and shelling by forces loyal to Assad.

A United Nations security council resolution was approved unanimously on Saturday, calling for a month-long ceasefire “without delay”, but the killing continued.

On those attacks, Mr Johnson said: “The House will have noted the disturbing reports of use of chlorine gas. I call for these reports to be fully investigated and for anyone held responsible for using chemical weapons in Syria to be held accountable.”

But, when it was pointed out that both Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron have contacted Vladimir Putin, Mr Johnson was unable to say if Theresa May had also had a “recent” conversation.

Emily Thornberry, the Shadow Foreign Secretary, called the indiscriminate bombing in Syria and the use of chemical weapons “a war crime”, adding that there “must be a reckoning for those responsible”.

But she said Labour opposed “yet more western military intervention, I believe that would simply prolong and deepen the war”.

“Ultimately, we can only end this dreadful conflict and the suffering of all the Syrian people through genuine peace talks involving all non-jihadi parties and the agreement of a political solution,” Ms Thornberry told MPs.

The question was sponsored by Labour MP John Woodcock, who condemned Britain and other Western countries for failing to act on the appalling bloodshed in Syria.

“The men and women of Ghouta who lie in pieces, deliberately targeted by Assad’s Russia-enabled bombs, the dead children whose faces are altered by the chlorine gas that chocked them.

“They should not be strewn in the rubble of Eastern Ghouta. Those bodies should be piled up in this chamber and lain at the feet of governments of every single nation which continues to shrug in the face of this horror.”

Mr Woodcock said the UN Security Council “is broken while one of its permanent members flouts the basic laws and systems of order it was created to uphold”. “In these dreadful circumstances, being cowed into inaction by this strangulated body is a greater violation than seeking to act even without its own authorisation,” he added.

Some commenst,worth a read!
COMMENTS
Richard Pearce
The rub, of course, will be which definition of 'incontrovertible evidence' he's talking about.
Is it the definition that was used when it came to the 'active WMD program' in Iraq? (That definition being 'if we accuse you of something, that is incontrovertible proof of your guilt)
:rotfl:
Is it the definition of 'incontrovertible evidence' that the UK uses when it comes to the crimes of the last surviving Apartheid regime? (That definition being you can have the signed original of an order to slaughter civilians, high res, high speed, 3d footage of the attack, dig the stinking dead bodies, and the remnants of the Israeli shells that killed them out of the rubble of civilians houses, apartment buildings, schools, and hospitals, and we'll deem it all too flimsy to allow any UK judges to waste their time on, and a crime for them to try and look, anyway)

Richard Pearce
25 minutes ago
So sick of it that they voted for him, volunteered to die for him, and now, to use the language you do, are targeting their own families with chemical weapons to keep him in power.
Or, you know, it could be that narrative you suck eagerly from the exhaust pipe of the Imperium's propaganda department that is wrong.


monkeyhanger
3 hours ago
I can remember when we promised to build Egypt a power station, then we said no we cannot afford it. So Nasser took over "our" canal, and we then invaded Egypt. until the Yanks told us to get out. ? Then we invaded Iraq, killed 500.000 looking for WMD's that the U.N. looked for and never found, but we left Iraq awash with depleted Uranium to this day, then we had regime change in Libya, how did that go, now Syria, but this is nearly over, so where to next ? Does anyone think these constant invasions may be making the local's a tad angry, and that's why terrorism is growing by the day ?



Personally getting a bit Sick of the US and my own country, the UK, basically deposing Democratically elected leaders because they don't tow the US line.

I am all for interventions of it's found that Assad has broken international law but we all know it won't just be an intervention, the will push it and Try to give the Syrians some 'Democracy' by removing Assad from power then leaving yet another power Vaccum like they did in Libya.
add to that it could bring us into conflict with Russia.
does bojo even think about these things before he opens his big, fat mouth

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby chanakyaa » 28 Feb 2018 06:24

FSA affiliated groups in #EasternGhouta send official letter to UNSC reaffirming that Nusra fighters ready to leave the enclave under UN supervision ...

https://twitter.com/ZeinakhodrAljaz/status/968407483025952768

nice try!!

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 28 Feb 2018 08:22

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sy ... t-assault/

night battles rage on the northern side of ghouta as tigers press on multiple points and go for the juggler vein

RUAF & SyAF is providing air support.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Mar 2018 07:38

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... st-ghouta/

Tigers do another night attack . Good play to reduce casualties

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Mar 2018 11:35

https://muraselon.com/en/2018/03/breaki ... -new-area/

saa is rolling inside from the north and will perhaps try to slice the area in two - urban(west), farms and villages(east).

the 14th division has moved to the southern flank from its usual locations on southern border. maybe they will launch another attack to probe for weak points and link up with the northern pincer.

note: 'division' in syrian theater seems like 3000 people, ie 1 brigade in a regular division. and lacking much of the assets of a regular army. inside these formations they have 'groups' each led by a capable man - each group is like 300-400 people and could be in comms, logistics, assault, artillery, technical mounted HMG/ZSU23-3, armour. they are agile and are able to forage and life off local resources as fighting inside own country...hence they are agile and self-contained without need for a long tail.

so group==3 or 4 companys of a regular army. the assault element are called 'storming / infiltration' units
armour is spread in penny packets inside each division for infantry support, not for massed armour warsaw pact type 'shock attacks', artillery and rocket holdings are fairly thin and certainly not enough to support kargil type fire density.
the SyAF participates in tactical air support, while russians with aid of drone and satellite imagery targets the storehouses, vehicle pools and tunnels

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Mar 2018 15:27

map by le carabinier
Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Mar 2018 15:29

HTS seems to be in imminent risk of losing Idlib and all its southern patches if the jaish suriya (shams front + jaish al islam) press forward.

saraqib and idlib road control seems to be the key

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Mar 2018 20:59

sputnik news

US Deploys 600 Additional Troops in Syria's At-Tanf - Reports © AP Photo/ Arab 24 network
MIDDLE EAST
15:55 01.03.2018(updated 15:58 01.03.2018) Get short URL11344
Aссording to the Turkish newspaper Yeni Akit, the United States has deployed 600 troops in the international coalition’s base in At-Tanf in Syria, adjacent to the Iraqi border.

The military contingent, comprised of special forces soldiers, has arrived at the base in At-Tanf, which was established by the US two years ago, in early 2016. A report from another Turkish media outlet Milliyet, citing the website Palmyra Monitor in Arabic, suggests that the units reached the base with armored vehicles.

READ MORE: Militants Move Freely in US-Controlled Zone in Syria — Russian Security Council

Earlier in the day the assistant to the secretary of the Russian Security Council, told Sputnik that it was astonishing that the United States had “occupied” such a large territory without the Syrian Government’s consent.

"The situation when the United States is virtually occupying a 55-kilometer [34-mile] zone around At-Tanf on the Syrian-Jordanian border without the consent of the Syrian Government, is bewildering. This zone includes the infamous Rukban refugee camp, where militants from illegal armed groups are freely moving near the US Armed Forces," he said.

Turkish artillery fires toward Syrian Kurdish positions in Afrin area, Syria, from Turkish side of the border in Hatay, Turkey, Friday, Feb. 9, 2018
© AP PHOTO/
US Applies Double Standards in Interpretation of UNSC Syria Resolution - Turkish Official
In addition, the United States has established as many as 20 military bases in Syrian Kurdistan, which according to the official, hampers restoring peace and stability in the country.
Separately, Russia's Ambassador to Jordan Boris Bolotin told Sputnik he has information that militants of the armed opposition are being trained in the At Tanf region on the Syrian-Jordanian border: "I do not rule out that they could be jihadists who fled Raqqa."

Since 2014, the US-led coalition has been conducting airstrikes against Daesh targets in Syria without any authorization from the Damascus government or a UN mandate. Syria, for its part, considers their presence a violation of the country’s national sovereignty.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Mar 2018 21:02

a german taliban arrested in helmand province

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Rudradev » 02 Mar 2018 05:25

SYRIA AT A GLANCE March 1, 2018

Image

Things are finally arriving at a phase of relative (though conflict-ridden) stability in Syria where a summary like this can be written.

The players:
RUSSIA + IRAN + ASSAD REGIME

Objectives:
1) Establish and strengthen the Shi'a-Alawite axis of Iran, Iraq, Integrated Assad-ruled Syria, and Lebanon that affords a land corridor between their territories and access to the Mediterranean sea (for gas pipelines, Russian military bases, etc.)
2) If possible woo Turkey away from the US.

Control the territory in RED

USA

Objectives:
1) Disrupt the Shi'a-Alawite axis of Iran, Iraq, Integrated Assad-ruled Syria, and Lebanon and diminish or eliminate the influence of Russia over this axis, thereby advancing Saudi and Israeli interests.
2) Keep Turkey on their side.

Control the territory in YELLOW (via the SDF). Syrian Democratic Forces are mainly Kurdish (politically PYD, militarily YPG/J) though with some Arab groups mixed in. There is mistrust between the Arab and Kurdish components of SDF.

USA also has some degree of control over the territory in LIGHT GREEN (e.g. areas marked 2 and 3). This is via the "rebel" forces, which include so-called Free Syrian Army opportunists, as well as Islamist groups like Ahrar-al-Sham, Jaish-al-Islam, and HTS (which used to be Al-Nusra). These are a disparate jumble of forces. Ahrar is influenced greatly by Turkey. HTS is linked to Al-Qaeda and hence unfriendly to the US. Free Syrian Army is a US/UK poodle brigade.

TURKEY

Objectives:
1) Disrupt any chance of a Kurdish state emerging in northern and eastern Syria (YELLOW areas). Occupy Syrian territory as a buffer (DARK GREEN area marked 4).
2) Intermediate priority: play Russian Axis against USA to gain maximum advantages for itself geopolitically.
3) Intermediate priority: gain as much control over the wider middle east as possible by playing godfather to Islamist militias. This puts it at odds with the Assad government.

The SDF-controlled yellow regions are of great concern to Turkey because the PYD (Syrian Kurdish political entity) is aligned with the PKK (Turkish Kurdish political entity, which has separatist ambitions).

Keep these objectives in mind when you consider the following markers.

First of all, the US (via SDF) has carved out a more-or-less contiguous territory in Northern and Eastern Syria, particularly Northeast of the Euphrates. This territory contains most of Syria's valuable agricultural land, a good amount of its oil and gas resources, as well as its key source of hydroelectric power, the al-Tabqa dam (MARKER 1). It is therefore a key bargaining chip for the US in achieving its primary goal: disrupting the Iran/Iraq/Syria/Lebanon axis.

By holding on to Al-Tabqa dam (MARKER 1) and all the territories to its east and north, plus Al-Tanf area (MARKER 2) and Sayda area (MARKER 3), the US has a boot on the economic neck of Assad's regime. Al-Tanf commands the highway to Baghdad, and Sayda commands the highway to Amman... the two major overland routes on which Syria's trade depends. In this way the US assures that even if Assad and Russia defeat the major concentration of Jihadi rebels in Idlib (MARKER 7) and surrounding areas, plus other pockets like East Ghouta (MARKER 8 ), the Syrian state will be starved of resources and trade, and hence too weak to form a strong axis with Iran and Iraq, or even to survive.

The USA originally planned to oust Assad through direct rebellion (to serve Saudi and Israeli interests). Russia spoiled that plan. Now, the Americans are holding on to these bargaining chips outlined above so that in a future "peace deal", they can insist on "democratic elections" that will oust Assad as a condition for recovering Syria's economic lifelines.

Now coming to Turkey. MARKER 4 shows the Syrian territory occupied by Turkish Islamist proxies, including Ahrar-al-Sham, as part of so-called "Operation Euphrates Shield". You can see that MARKER 4 area cuts through the otherwise contiguous SDF-controlled territory. It splits off an SDF pocket to the west (MARKER 5), which is Afrin, from the rest of SDF territory.

Moreover, Turkey is heavily involved in the instability in Idlib (MARKER 7) where many Jihadi groups (mainly Al-Qaeda backed HST and Turkey-backed Ahrar-al-Sham) are fighting each other. Note all the dark blue towers on the frontier of Idlib: they are Turkish observation posts along the frontier with Assad-controlled territory.

The area around MARKERS 4, 5, 6 is where things get very interesting.

Before the fall of ISIS, the USA had promised Turkey that it would back the SDF (i.e. the PYD Syrian Kurds) only as long as it needed their help to defeat ISIS and take Raqqa. After the fall, the USA changed its mind. It has decided to maintain its presence and guarantee the security of the yellow SDF-controlled areas, at least the ones northeast of the Euphrates river (MARKER 1 and all areas to east and north of that). The reason the USA wants to stay here, as I explained, is to keep its boot on the economic lifelines of Assad's regime.

Erdogan is very angry about this. He has always insisted that he should be able to fight the PYD ("terrorists" in his view), by invading and bombing the yellow SDF areas at will. Now the USA has enforced a no-fly zone to the north and east of the Euphrates river to protect the SDF there.

So Erdogan is flexing his muscles by attacking, instead, the SDF areas WEST of the Euphrates. He has already occupied dark-green MARKER 4 area via his Jihadi proxies. He is currently attacking SDF in Afrin to the west of this region (MARKER 5). This has put great pressure on the USA-SDF alliance: the SDF are looking to the USA to protect them, but the USA is afraid of pushing Erdogan into the arms of Russia!

The Russian-Syrian alliance is at some odds over what to do about this. Putin would like nothing better than to sit back and watch while the Turks pummel the USA's proxy, SDF. The USA is faced with two bad choices: alienating either the SDF or the Turks, and both would be good outcomes for Putin. However, Assad would like to help out the SDF in Afrin because after all, Kurdish goodwill may be key to his ability to stitch back a united Syria (perhaps with greater regional autonomy for the Kurds) in future. So Putin is trying to woo Turkey away from the USA, while Assad is trying to woo SDF away from the USA.

The fun will only increase when Erdogan (as he has threatened) attacks Manbij (MARKER 6). This area is close to the SDF heartland and they have drawn a redline with the Americans, demanding overt support against a Turkish attack on Manbij if the SDF alliance with USA is to hold. The USA for its part is demurring because Manbij is still technically to the west of the Euphrates river.

The dance unfolding between Turkey, Russia, Syria, SDF, and the USA is the space to watch for the near future, in terms of geopolitical consequences. Remember SDF's going along with USA is critical for the USA to stop the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon axis from fructifying, while Turkey's membership of NATO is a crucial pillar of the USA's geopolitical position against Russia!

Nothing much else to add. The USA is now trying to open other fronts against Assad to hedge against the potential loss of the SDF as their ally. They are making halla bol around the Assad/Russian attacks on East Ghouta (MARKER 8 ) which is controlled by Free Syrian Army plus some Jihadi groups. The hope is that with bad publicity (blaming the Syrians and Russians for civilian deaths) they can compel UN "humanitarian" sanctions against Assad, thereby replacing some of the economic leverage that will be lost if the SDF ditches them.

I should also say that the dark grey areas are the ones where ISIS is still supposedly running around and mating with camels. As of now, they don't matter very much to the overall picture.

Philip
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Philip » 02 Mar 2018 17:25

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/0 ... offensive/

Roast Turkey,with Ottoman sauce and accompanied by salad Erdogan! :rotfl:
Turkey suffers deadly day in Afrin offensive
Members of Police Special Operation and Gendarmerie Special Operation of Turkey patrol within the ongoing "Operation Olive Branch" launched in Syria's Afrin
2 MARCH 2018 • 9:24AM
Turkey suffered heavy losses on Thursday during its offensive against a Kurdish militia in northwest Syria, with the military announcing that eight soldiers were killed and 13 more wounded.
*(that means casualties were much greater)

The death toll, released by the Turkish military staff in two separate statements, makes Thursday one of the deadliest days for Ankara since launching its cross-border operation against the People's Protection Units (YPG) in Syria's Afrin region on 20 January.

"As part of the operations in Afrin, five of our heroic comrades fell as martyrs and seven were wounded" on Thursday, said the staff in a first statement.

Shortly after, it issued a second statement in which it announced that three more soldiers had been killed as well as six wounded, without giving details of the circumstances.

Turkey launched Operation Olive Branch on January 20 in Syria's northwestern Afrin

"May God grant peace to our martyred soldiers in Afrin, all my condolences to their loved ones," spokesman for the Turkish presidency Ibrahim Kalin said on Twitter.

The day's toll brings the number of Turkish soldiers killed since the launch of operation "Olive Branch" to at least 40.

The private Dogan news agency reported that intense fighting had broken out in the afternoon between Turkish special forces units recently deployed in Afrin and YPG members, who mounted an ambush with the help of tunnels.

According to the report a Turkish helicopter sent to rescue the wounded had to turn back after being hit, while the area was shelled to allow an evacuation.

A member of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) takes part in a demonstration alongside Syrian-Kurds in the town of Amuda
A member of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) takes part in a demonstration alongside Syrian-Kurds in the town of Amuda CREDIT: AFP
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was informed of the incident during a visit to Senegal.

Ankara considers the YPG a "terrorist" organisation closely linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a group that has been leading a bloody guerrilla war on Turkish soil since 1984.

However, the YPG is supported by the United States and has been spearheading the international coalition fight against the Islamic State (IS) group in Syria.

An injured girl receives treatment at the Avrin hospital in the Kurdish-majority town of Afrin CREDIT: AFP
The situation was complicated further 10 days ago following the deployment of pro-regime elements in the enclave of Afrin, with observers warning of an increased risk of collision between the forces of Ankara and Damascus.

On Monday, Turkey deployed some 600 members of the police and gendarmerie special forces in the Afrin region, indicating it was preparing for urban fighting.

The Turkish authorities have rejected a call by the United States this week to implement the humanitarian truce, called for by the UN Security Council in Syria, with Ankara saying the UN resolution did not concern its operation.

The International Committee of the Red Cross said a humanitarian aid convoy entered the Afrin region on Thursday for the first time since the start of the Turkish offensive, which has had a severe impact on civilians.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH), 141 civilians, including 27 children, have died since the beginning of the Turkish military campaign, a claim which Ankara denies.

Supratik
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Supratik » 02 Mar 2018 18:33

A few quick points. Unless the Alawites are willing to hand-over power to the Sunnis a united democratic Syria is not possible. A 15% minority cannot rule over the rest 85% majority except violently. Iraq after separation of Kurdish areas will survive as now the Shias have 75-80% majority. Kurds will try to consolidate their gains in both Syria and Iraq. This is their best chance to have their own country. A broader war between Turks and Kurds is unavoidable and is going to come soon. Erdogan's actions show signs of nervousness and an attempt to pre-empt the Kurds.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 02 Mar 2018 22:30

Breaking: Turkish Air Force bombs Syrian gov’t forces in Afrin, 18 killed
By Leith Aboufadel - 02/03/201811


BEIRUT, LEBANON (6:00 A.M.) – At approximately 12:30 A.M. (Damascus Time), the Turkish Air Force bombed the positions of the Syrian government forces that were stationed in the Afrin region of Aleppo.

According to a military report from Aleppo, the Turkish Air Force bombed the National Defense Forces (NDF) at the town of Sharan in Afrin, killing at least 18 military personnel and wounding three others.

In addition to the death toll, at least 19 other military personnel have declared missing as a result of this bombing.

The Turkish attack last night is believed to be in retaliation for the NDF helping the YPG foil the rebel attack on the Rajou District of Afrin

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 02 Mar 2018 23:06

Supratik wrote:A few quick points. Unless the Alawites are willing to hand-over power to the Sunnis a united democratic Syria is not possible. A 15% minority cannot rule over the rest 85% majority except violently. Iraq after separation of Kurdish areas will survive as now the Shias have 75-80% majority. Kurds will try to consolidate their gains in both Syria and Iraq. This is their best chance to have their own country. A broader war between Turks and Kurds is unavoidable and is going to come soon. Erdogan's actions show signs of nervousness and an attempt to pre-empt the Kurds.


Erdogan knows that 15% Alawite cant rule the Sunnis either. He is trying to become the leader of the Sunni regions. Why else did he make a U-turn when conflict broke out in Syria. He had excellent relations with Bashar al-Assad. Why does he arm the sunni jihadis and bats for them?
PKK and YPG are a problem because they are marxist and unwilling to become erdogans sunni pawns. The peshmerga is a sunni pawn. It abandoned the Yazidis to ISIS.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 03 Mar 2018 06:29

A couple of major jaish al islam bases and trench lines have fallen in east ghouta

Austin
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 03 Mar 2018 21:00

RIP

Turkish FSA jihadist takes selfie with Kurdish civilians they had burnt earlier [ Image Alert very disturbing ]

https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/stat ... 5191608320

Singha
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 03 Mar 2018 21:39

Image

Singha
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 03 Mar 2018 21:41

maybe plan is to drive in and connect at that extention of red in west(hasrata base) and cleave the pocket into north and south as was done in aleppo.

but long ways to go yet, the rats have massive stockpile of weapons and no shortage of fighters...but unless usa intervenes their fate is sealed - green buses to Idlib.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 03 Mar 2018 21:43

deep water filled ditches had been dug to stop any advance
Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 03 Mar 2018 22:36

the problem with being turkey in this war is that, like the afrin bombing, at some point of time they are going to overreach and underestimate their adversaries.

My prediction is turkey is not going to emerge out of this war in a single piece. They are going to get fried. Also predicted by many soothsayers from a millenia ago, that constantinople will be toppled and returned to greeks. I am guilty of shamelessly copying that meme too, as it seems as if forces are converging at the same moment and erdogan is going to bear the brunt of it.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Mar 2018 11:56

Image

deejay
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby deejay » 04 Mar 2018 12:05

You were right Singh’s. They are going for Hasrata.

Singha
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 04 Mar 2018 12:05

for habal sir if lurking


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Large military crowds being prepared by the Syrian army and its allies towards Qalaat Al-Mudiq.


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