Levant crisis - III

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 30 Aug 2018 09:38

things seem to be following a well oiled script.

russia has accused the USN of sending a DDG loaded with thawks to 'punish' syria for chemical attack in idlib

russians have wheeled in all ships loaded with kalibers and will no doubt send a few bombers as well on round trips over the caspian

only party whose posture is not clear is turkey - will they allow or violently oppose and support the rebels ? has some deal been made to split Idlib between assad and erdogan. whatever turkey gets is extra and a net gain.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby deejay » 30 Aug 2018 10:21

Idlib will not have the Green Bus option - right? Where will the Green Buses take them? This is a fight to the finish, right?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 30 Aug 2018 14:49

not really.

russia is working on ground to 'reconcile' any moderate factions and 'get their cases settled' and rejoin the syrian govt ruled areas.
as a sop some of the rebels in these areas are rebadged as police or NDF and put to work keeping the law n order - but main thing is they get a job and salary and the means to defend themselves against other rebels. this was how the biscuit crumbled in daraa-sweida front.

second level will be force them to vacate to turk ruled areas of afrin and north-central idlib and make a new life. while syrians promise to stop after taking ghab plains, jisr al shugour and western rural aleppo onlee....until the next round.
russia would like most of the bloodshed to occur in between turkish backed fronts like shams/sultan murad vs nusra - a manthan where most of the fighters are consumed internally, before the syrians need to expend any blood or treasure. and this is good way to set spark on the wood.

third level could be evac to some other place of their choice like jordan or mali or mauritania and so on. the EU/US will be terrified of these hardcores moving back to home countries. smugglers on payment can move them out. the networks are already in place on turkish border and coastline.

turkey US relations have soured. russia will be putting pressure on erdogan for concessions on idlib and afrin. getting back a piece of afrin will also build their bridges with the kurds.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 30 Aug 2018 14:57

Within Syria
@WithinSyriaBlog
Aug 25
More
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Mualim will likely meet his Saudi counterpart, Adel al-Jubeir in Moscow this week.

---
another twitterer claims the nour al din zinki bandits of old aleppo fame met with russians this week. one gang of them beheaded a injured child in the back of pickup truck if you recall. the syrians put a bounty on the head of the executioner and tried to catch him later, but i believe he was last seen preening in turkey. victim was a 12 yo palestinian boy working as a auxiliary with some govt militia.

chess pieces are moving on the board.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 30 Aug 2018 15:33

https://www.rt.com/news/437200-syria-idlib-us-chemical/

Syrian forces are gearing up to take the last terrorist stronghold, the US is boosting its military presence, and Russia is warning of a false-flag chemical attack. RT looks at the aligning of forces ahead of the battle for Idlib.

American warships, cruise missile delivery systems, strategic bombers and other hardware has arrived to the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf earlier this week. Washington is denying that any buildup is taking place, but Moscow says the assets are being gathered for a massive strike against the Syrian government.

A provocation with chemical weapons, staged by the jihadists, will be used as a pretext for the attack, and Damascus will again be groundlessly accused of poisoning its own people, Russia said. In April, a massive bombardment of Syria by the US, UK and France was triggered by what Russia says was a similarly staged false-flag operation.

Jabhat al-Nusra and other militants in Idlib stand no chance against the Syrian military, backed by Russia and Iran, but Western interference may give them a fighting chance. The US and its allies are making every effort to preserve jihadist forces and use them to remove Syrian president Bashar Assad from power, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently said .


And if the violence escalates in Idlib, the two million strong population of the northern province will be put in grave danger as the terrorists basically hold the people hostage and use them as a human shield.

The Russian Reconciliation Center continues talks to achieve a peaceful resolution of the Idlib standoff. However, the militants seem reluctant to lay down their arms, which makes the coming days crucial for the fate of Idlib and the whole of Syria.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 30 Aug 2018 15:34


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 30 Aug 2018 15:42

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 30 Aug 2018 23:42


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 31 Aug 2018 00:05


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 31 Aug 2018 01:26

Sep 8 is also the announced timeline of Russia East exercise....
Speeches in Russian Duma are getting pretty fiery with calls for stationing tactical nukes in Syria etc. Historically, I note that since the 1971 Bay of Bengal snafu where Task Fauj 74 was stopped by Russian subs surfacing ahead of Enterprise with torpedo tubes open, this is the first time that Russian conventional forces have gained the upper hand and are on the verge of a complete victory over forces where US forces are explicitly involved. Georgia and Ukraine were not at all so explicit. Us offer to "withdraw" from Al Tanf in these circumstances, will sound in the Duma, reminescent of von Rumstedt "offering" to withdraw from Staingrad, or Goering offering to "withdraw" from Oder front. I fear the Putinski is caught between rock and hard place. Can't just declare ceasefire and withdraw: he is expected to go for the kill, with a vengeance. Serbia/Kosovo, Afghanistan, the turning of Poland... Speaking of Poland, I was surprised to read yesterdin that in Dec. 1971, Poland introduced a UN resolution that would have saved Pakis from surrendering. Fortunately Bhutto tore it up and walked out, and next day Niazi signed on the dotted line. Wonder what was behind the Poland resolution since Poland was at that time firmly in Warsaw Pact.

Anyway, what we are seeing is a TOTAL mobilization of Russian forces. Even down to airborne divisions. HUGE gamble by Putin.
UBCN notes:
1) Calling it "East Russia" is to tell NATO to *iss off. Otherwise there would be a scare about Ukraine/Moldavia/Poland
2) Mentioning China/Mongolia participation, ditto, also to scare off Japan/SoKo.
3) Putting such a large fleet out in the Med poses a target big enough that any destructive strike on it will leave Russia with no alternative but to launch nuclear weapons. So Deterrent By Target Size.
4) Specifically mentioning 300K airborne, along with huge array of guided mijiles, is intended to
a) Tell Erdogan to not even **THINK** of turning his stinkin' fez cap - as he has done so many times.
b) Tell NutNYahoo to STFU unless he wants to greet 300K Couriers bearing vodka in Jerusalem.

Just vaporizing ISIS targets in Idlib did not call for all this fanfare. That is just another week's work, hain? why advertise it?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 31 Aug 2018 08:02

some airborne units like a rapid reaction 'fist unit' could be airlifted in emergency with their equipment. a bigger deployment needs lot of ship borne logistical tail of which there is no sign.

its already confirmed that heavy bomber units based in SW russia will participate as needed in Idlibdawn. they are ideally placed given long range to pivot in any direction, including to ankara :twisted: a short hop across the black sea pond.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 31 Aug 2018 08:05

EU is shitting br**ks at the prospect of their jihadis , successfully exported to Syria , now getting thrashed and sneaking back to their motherlands, venom glands loaded with poison and burning to punish the EU govts who could not protect them

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2018 ... ceasefire/

MOSCOW/ANKARA/VIENNA (Sputnik) – The situation around Idlib has recently escalated with both Moscow and Damascus suggesting that militants are planning to stage a false-flag chemical attack against civilians there to frame the Syrian government.

Idlib is one of the Syrian areas where terrorists and militants, particularly those who are part of the Jabhat Nusra terror group or affiliated with it, are still active. Moreover, thousands of militants have been transported to the province from other Syrian regions under deals with Damascus.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Thursday that Ankara was cooperating with Moscow and Tehran to avoid a catastrophe in Syria’s militant-held northwestern Idlib province.

"We are carrying out work together with the Russians and the Iranians to prevent the catastrophe which took place in Aleppo from repeating in Idlib. We are also engaged in talks with the US [authorities], we are looking for ways to clear Manbij of terrorists," Erdogan said during his speech in Ankara, as quoted by the CNN Turk broadcaster.

Earlier on Thursday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said Russia was holding consultations with Iran and Turkey, the two other guarantor states of the Syrian truce, about the situation in Idlib.
The city of Aleppo, which has long been under the control of militants and opposition groups, fell to the government forces in late 2016 after four years of violent fighting. Once the most populated city in Syria, Aleppo was devastated in the course of the battle.

The territories surrounding the city of Idlib are currently largely free of the Syrian government forces' control. The areas are occupied by members of the armed opposition and, according to the information of the Russian and Syrian authorities, militants of certain terrorist groups, who carry out from time to time attacks on the positions of the Syrian government forces.

Earlier this week, Russia's Defense Ministry warned that the leader of the Tahrir al-Sham terrorist group, which is affiliated with Jabhat Nusra, was planning a false-flag chemical attack against civilians in Idlib in order to provoke western nations into retaliating against Damascus.


Meanwhile, the EU foreign ministers also agreed during almost three-hour talks on Thursday that the escalation of situation in Syria's Idlib should be avoided at all costs, a source familiar with the content of the consultations told Sputnik. According to the source, the basic idea which dominated the negotiations was the extreme alarm at the developments in Idlib, with many ministers having questioned if the situation on the ground was deteriorating back to escalation.
Thus, the EU foreign ministers agreed on the need to do their utmost to prevent such a scenario in the country. The source added that EU Foreign Police Chief Federica Mogherini might articulate Friday the EU common position on the issue, based on the discussions held.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 31 Aug 2018 08:17

cheen has sent a entire brigade and their tanks by train to participate in vostok 2018 exercise
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diploma ... rn-russias

signaling going on, and learning exercise.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 31 Aug 2018 08:18

https://www.janes.com/article/82648/rus ... 8-exercise

Nearly 300,000 troops will be involved in ‘Vostok (East) 2018’ in September, Russia's largest military exercise since 1981, when the Soviet Army held ‘Zapad (West) 81’, according to Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

He said, during a visit to Russia's Central Military District (CMD) reported by his ministry's website on 28 August, that 36,000 pieces of equipment such as tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armoured vehicles would be involved in “conditions as close to combat as possible”. Russian military TV Zvezda added that Shoigu said thousands of aircraft, helicopters, and unmanned aerial vehicles would be involved in the exercise.

Russian state news agency Tass reported on 29 August that the exercise would be conducted on 11-15 September in the Volga, Ural, and Siberian federal districts and 29 Russian regions.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 31 Aug 2018 08:19

hopefully we will see some good videos of ICBMs and IRBMs being fired. gotta love those huge AWD TELARs and those big green cansisters rolling through the tractless taiga forests.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 31 Aug 2018 08:32

https://www.janes.com/article/82664/tur ... -for-f-35s

Turkey rejects proposal to give up S-400 in exchange for F-35s
Kerry Herschelman, Washington, DC - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
30 August 2018

Turkey has accused the US of using threatening language regarding Russian S-400s
The Turkish-US crisis has whet the appetite of Russia and Iran, which both offer Ankara joint fighter production

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has reacted to a proposal by a US congressional delegation that visited Ankara on 27 August to abandon the purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defence system in return for Washington unblocking Turkey's procurement of F-35 fighter jets by calling on the United States to stop using threatening language, adding that such issues cannot be handled "like in cowboy films".

"Turkey is in urgent need of an air defence system to defend itself," Cavusoglu said during a visit to Vilnius, Lithuania, on 28 August.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 05 Sep 2018 08:42


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Sep 2018 11:14

Image

russian bombers participating in the Med sea exercises are also flying into syria over caspian iran route.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Sep 2018 11:16

the Mig31BM itself might have a unrefueled combat radius of around 750km.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Cain Marko » 08 Sep 2018 01:00

Singha wrote:the Mig31BM itself might have a unrefueled combat radius of around 750km.

And iirc they can be refueled in-flight

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 08 Sep 2018 07:17

Moqtada al sadr has sold out to the saudis
He has demanded the iraqi hashd al shabi be disbanded
Some mobs destroyed the hashd hq yesterday and burned it

So a pro iran vs pro saudi factional fight in iraq looks imminent

And where law and order vanishes, some new mutated isis will take hold ...which will need nato presence in region to “fight”

The typical binary middle east cycle
Build one monster
Wreck the monster
Goto step 1

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Philip » 08 Sep 2018 07:46

The tri-partite summit between Russia, Turkey and Iran over Idlib appears to have stalled the imminent attack, giving the ISIS fighters an opportunity to leave and others to resort to political efforts in the future in the post- war Syria to fight for power.Erdogan has said that an assault on the 3.5M city would cause a flood of refugees into Turkey altready reeling from the same.The Iranians argued that crushing ISIS once and for all was the only solution, but for now there is a " time-out".However, this cannot be indefinite and if the anti- regime rebels refuse to leave, the battle will begin with the memory of Aleppo
still fresh in the mind.

Assad, Iran and Russia all want a total defeat of anti- Syrian opposition , a swift end to the war, a political process restart and economic rebuilding.Syria sits on massive quantities of O & G which if it enters the market could bring prices down to the detriment of the oilygarchs and despots of the region..

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 09 Sep 2018 10:36

its like setting off a pile of wood smoke near a wasps nest...hoping more of the wasps will peacefully migrate to the neighbours houses and start their own nests.

makes the eventual problem of dealing with the leftover wasps easier.

isis / AQ have no place to go in syria. if they leave have to leave to or via turkey.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 09 Sep 2018 22:03

https://twitter.com/nukesn_missiles/sta ... 6244734976

iran hit a base of anti-govt rebels called PDKI in northern iraq with Fajr5 MLRS today - video in link

obviously a signed aimed at events in syria

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Aditya_V » 10 Sep 2018 10:25

Singha wrote:https://twitter.com/nukesn_missiles/status/1038396746244734976

iran hit a base of anti-govt rebels called PDKI in northern iraq with Fajr5 MLRS today - video in link

obviously a signed aimed at events in syria


Nice proganda- a Iranian weapon using US based GPS? If you believe Iran everything indigenous and Qaher 333 is the best aircraft in the world.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 10 Sep 2018 12:17

they made their point, whatever be the tools.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 11 Sep 2018 08:10

Aditya_V wrote:
Singha wrote:https://twitter.com/nukesn_missiles/status/1038396746244734976

iran hit a base of anti-govt rebels called PDKI in northern iraq with Fajr5 MLRS today - video in link

obviously a signed aimed at events in syria


Nice proganda- a Iranian weapon using US based GPS? If you believe Iran everything indigenous and Qaher 333 is the best aircraft in the world.


The open commercial gps and Glonaas is available to all who ever wants to use it with accuracy of under 10 m

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Aditya_V » 11 Sep 2018 16:17

And can be turned off when the US miltary wants to turn it off.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 11 Sep 2018 17:43

they may not turn it off over Iraq because US troops and planes are operating in the region.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby kvraghav » 12 Sep 2018 19:06

The great USA can also turnoff GLONASS signals? Sometime we try to be more Americans than the Americans themselves.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Sep 2018 21:18

If I were running the show I would program devices such that they can operate by directly converting GPS data to find position, or sending it through a specified code to find the position - with a small correction. And from time to time I might send a signal asking ppl to set their devices to the code. Very simple way of wreaking havoc on unwelcome users. It may not change road GPS much: show locations off by a bit and speeds off by a bit, but for mijjile guidance etc it will make a huge difference.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 13 Sep 2018 11:28

why would the iranians use gps when even smartphones have glonass and beidou ability.

iranians have released some drone/sat footage
Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 17 Sep 2018 21:44

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/br ... eir-ezzor/

isis launches offensive in western desert of deir azzor.

they seem to be sustaining themselves well perhaps via the jordan-saudi border/al tanf region.....

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 18 Sep 2018 07:24


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 18 Sep 2018 07:47

CNN crowing that Syria shot down Russian plane by mistake. Apparently there is a huge missile attack in progress against Latakia - from the sea. What are all those Russian Naval assets doing, allowing that to happen?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 18 Sep 2018 08:58

these are believed to be LORA quasi ballistic missiles or some equivalent launched from a civilian container ship in eastern mediterranean.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 18 Sep 2018 09:05

parts of the missile shot down in latest attack

Image
Image
Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 18 Sep 2018 09:51

https://en.muraselon.com/2018/09/russia ... terranean/

French frigate
Idf f16
Il22 recon ac

All involved somehow

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 18 Sep 2018 09:55

The il22 was 30km out over the sea when lost
Its unlikely a wayward sam would home in so far away

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 18 Sep 2018 10:04

IL20 was helping anti-ballistic missile systems track the trajectory of incoming missiles and sending data over to the ABM systems which made initial salvo from NATO israeli forces ineffective. So the French frigate most likely deployed an anti aircraft missile at the slow moving IL20 and shot it down.


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