Levant crisis - III

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Singha
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 18 Sep 2018 10:26

for its own credibility, russia will have to investigate this fully and find a way to repay the compliment.

the IL20 does have a lot of side looking and ELINT sensors.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 18 Sep 2018 10:30

size of explosion indicates missile having a large warhead

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/10 ... 2968425472

no jihadi drone could ignite that

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 18 Sep 2018 11:20

there is a genuine problem with soviet legacy AAD systems which do not have IFF compatability/interoperability with other soviet supplied eastern bloc air defence systems. So once a SAM is fired in heavy EW environment the missile often cannot be controlled by land based systems and goes to seeker mode and selects alternate targets by itself.

So a syrian S200 missile seeker is well capable of being jammed by incoming missile onboard jammer but instead of falling off it's seeker auto pilots itself to next available signature.

possible ?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 18 Sep 2018 12:23

yes. the S200 has a very strong range and height also.

it has happened in the past...ukrainian S200 that lost its command link shot down a russian airliner over black sea
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_A ... light_1812

the Coot would be the biggest target offshore ....

--wiki--
Initial private assessments of American military officials said the crash was caused by a S-200 missile that overshot its target drone—which had been destroyed successfully by an S-300 fired at the same time—and instead of self-destructing, locked on the passenger plane about 250 kilometres (160 mi) further away and detonated 15 metres (50 ft) over the plane
---
the SA5 is best suited to high flying large bomber targets but thats the best syrians have, so they fire it at everything at long range...and use the pantsyrs for point high value areas like damascus airport or military nodes.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 18 Sep 2018 12:30

>> So a syrian S200 missile seeker is well capable of being jammed by incoming missile onboard jammer but instead of falling off it's seeker auto pilots itself to next available signature

more likely the radio command link to inflight S200 missiles were disrupted by EW or just failed and it went feral.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 18 Sep 2018 14:31

Russia to Israel: ‘You are to blame for downing of Il-20 and death of crew’

https://www.rt.com/news/438690-russia-i ... ifications

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby John » 18 Sep 2018 16:45

Singha wrote:The il22 was 30km out over the sea when lost
Its unlikely a wayward sam would home in so far away


This has been the trend while Russian SAM seem to have great advertising brochure they fail quite spectacularly in real world. Even if you discount friendly fire the fact Pantsir which has been advertised as Cruise missile killer struggles to shoot down any should alarm Syria.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Philip » 18 Sep 2018 17:08

Watching RT right now.Previous alleged provocations against Israel says Bibi N ,has resulted in this Israeli strike on a Syrian warehouse allegedly filled with Iranian arms for the Hiz. This op. tragically saw a Syrian SAM or SAMs hit an Ru civil aircraft which Russia said the Israelis were using as a " cover" to deceive the missile.The IL-20 (Coot) was coming in to land .Thete was no early warning about Israeli actions and allegedly only one minute's warning was givenOnly a one minute warning was supposedly given to prevent Ru aircraft to intervene and stop the strike.

Whatever the truth of the incident, this is bound to affect
the hitherto tacit understanding between the two states on events in Syria and avoiding a clash between the two.
This is still unfolding situ and the "fog of war" needs to clear.

Incidentally this aircraft is the same platform used for our 1L-38 LRMP/ ASW birds.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 18 Sep 2018 21:06

Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 19 Sep 2018 07:48

YY have been living a bit too happily, supporting the ISIS and generally bissing on the poor Syrians whenever they please. Unless Comrade Putin administers a bold jhapad there is no prospect for biss, and they are going to play faster and looser. Maybe an accidental missile strike on the Golan Heights is long overdue.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 19 Sep 2018 08:31

russia is trying to get turkey and its militias into a fight with nusra in Idlib over the new DMZ....slowly drain that swamp at least cost.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 19 Sep 2018 08:59

John wrote:
Singha wrote:The il22 was 30km out over the sea when lost
Its unlikely a wayward sam would home in so far away


This has been the trend while Russian SAM seem to have great advertising brochure they fail quite spectacularly in real world. Even if you discount friendly fire the fact Pantsir which has been advertised as Cruise missile killer struggles to shoot down any should alarm Syria.


If you ever followed this tread Pantisir shot most cruise missile in Syria. heck even a S-200 have shot an F-16 in past !

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 19 Sep 2018 09:00

Putin on Israel’s role in Il-20 downing: ‘Looks accidental, like chain of tragic circumstances’

https://www.rt.com/news/438728-putin-is ... ria-plane/


“When people are dying – especially under such circumstances – it is always a tragedy,” President Putin said during a joint press conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Moscow on Tuesday.

Responding to a reporter’s question as to whether the incident in Latakia could be compared to the downing of the Russian Su-24 by Turkey in 2015, Putin said the two situations were “different.”

Ankara “deliberately downed” the Russian jet, he explained, while the Il-20 incident “looks like a chain of tragic circumstances, because the Israeli plane didn’t shoot down our jet.”

The incident has heated up political tensions, with the Russian military placing the blame for the incident on Tel Aviv. It said that the Israeli raid on Syria late on Monday had triggered a chain of events that led to the Il-20 being shot down by a Syrian S-200 surface-to-air missile. The downing jeopardized the reasonably good diplomatic relations enjoyed by Russia and Israel, casting doubt on whether these could be maintained.

Russia will investigate the incident, Putin said, adding that Moscow will boost security of Russian troops in Syria following the incident. He said that these will be “the steps that everyone will notice.”


Following Putin’s remarks, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said that he had notified his Israeli counterpart Avigdor Lieberman that Moscow “won’t leave Israeli actions unanswered.” He said the Russian jet had been downed by Syrian defense systems following their response to an attack by Israeli planes.

On Tuesday evening, Putin spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by phone. He urged Israel to avoid such incidents in the future and said that Tel Aviv’s military endeavors in Syria violate the country’s sovereignty.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 19 Sep 2018 09:54

The israeli jets took cover behind the slow moving IL22 which was on the landing path. And fired at Syrian targets knowing full well that the Syrians would not fire back at the Israeli F16s with the IL22 in between their line of sight.

And now they play all innocent and claim fault was all Syria's and Putin has also called off the incident as "unfortunate" and "accidental".

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 19 Sep 2018 12:10

habal wrote:The israeli jets took cover behind the slow moving IL22 which was on the landing path. And fired at Syrian targets knowing full well that the Syrians would not fire back at the Israeli F16s with the IL22 in between their line of sight.


Ofcourse the syrians could shoot down and which is what they did but ended up shooting the slow turboprop IL-22 rather than the agile and fast F-16.

S-200 is a very old 60's missile it cant certainly manouver to beat the F-16 unless it is travelling just straight.

And now they play all innocent and claim fault was all Syria's and Putin has also called off the incident as "unfortunate" and "accidental".


It is hard to conclude that Israel planned this to shoot the IL-22 or it was just the heat of the moment that the F-16 pilot made the decision to take cover under IL-22 not knowing what it is.

But Isreal certainly is guilty of giving Russian MOD just 5 min notice before the attack started , the IL-22 would barely move few 10 km in that time assuming it was even notified on time

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 19 Sep 2018 13:34

Not 5 mins notice, just 1 min notice.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 19 Sep 2018 14:52

in another instance, israeli jets mingled with nato planes flying over jordan and eastern syria and then attacked allepo with missiles from the east.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Philip » 19 Sep 2018 22:18

This may go down in time as a marker similar to the bandicoot's Kargil gambit.A tactical victory which ended up in a strategic defeat.Israeli aircraft flying over Syria from now on will be fair game and if it continues to hit at Syrian govt. targets running the risk of hitting Ru assets again.Russia may up the ante by establishing a " no-fly zone" over key Syrian airspace , limiting outside interference with the regime's final push to exterminate ISIS and the mercenaries of the US and its Arab chums.
Last edited by Philip on 20 Sep 2018 03:16, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Sep 2018 01:59

From what I see, Putin has told NutNYahoo not to violate Syrian airspace. Same as no-fly zone, hain? Wonder if NutNYahoo has studied the history of the wunderboy in Georgia, Mikhail whatzit, now a non-citizen of both Ukraine and Georgia. Wanted in the latter and Not Wanted in the former. He was also told by Putin not to violate Ossetian airspace or territory, hain?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 24 Sep 2018 23:08

Shoigu announced the delivery of Syria to the S-300 complex

This will allow the Syrian military to identify Russian aircraft

Russia will give Syria in the next two weeks anti-aircraft missile system S-300. In addition, the command posts of the Syrian air defense units and military units will be equipped with automated control systems (ACS), the deliveries of which are carried out only to the Russian Armed Forces of Russia. This was announced by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

"S-300 is capable of intercepting air attack means at ranges of more than 250 km and simultaneously hitting several air targets," Shoigu said. The complex has high noise immunity and rate of fire, the minister specified.

Deliveries to the Syrian troops of the ACS will provide for the centralized management of the Syrian air defense, monitoring of the air situation and prompt delivery of target designations, Shoigu said in a statement. But most importantly, as the minister noted, thanks to the S-300 and ACS, the identification of all Russian aircraft by Syrian air defense means will be guaranteed.


Shoigu also promised that henceforth, in the areas adjacent to Syria over the Mediterranean Sea, radioelectronic suppression of satellite navigation, airborne radar and communication systems of combat aircraft attacking facilities on Syrian territory will be carried out. The minister expressed the conviction that these measures will cool the "hotheads" and deter unreasonable actions that threaten Russian servicemen. Otherwise, the minister warned, the Russian Armed Forces will be forced to respond in accordance with the current situation.


Shoigu recalled that in 2013, at the request of Israel, Russia refused to supply Syria with S-300 air defense missile systems, although at that time everything was ready to send weapons, and "the Syrian military personnel were trained."

The minister's statement is Russia's response to the crash of the Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft carrying 15 crew members. The plane was mistakenly shot down by the S-200 air defense system of Syria on September 17 in the sky over the Mediterranean Sea. Earlier, the Defense Ministry blamed the incident on the Israeli Air Force. According to the Russian department, Israeli fighters have substituted a Russian aircraft for fire.


https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/artic ... 1780-c-300

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 24 Sep 2018 23:19

timeline seems to be 2 weeks - ie from existing stocks

Image

a 150 people flight from russia was approaching hymenim base same time as syrians were releasing SAMs .... a bigger disaster did not happen by luck.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 25 Sep 2018 17:53

I think the Israel Planned this mission knowing well the IL-20 was in Air and giving a less than 1 minute notice wont move the aircraft much ahead and one of the aircraft would just go behind the IL-20 and force the Syrian SAM to shoot and the F-16 being more nible and faster would out manouver and Syrian SAM would hit IL-20.

In short a planned mission that was made to look like an accident.

If the Israel would have been so concerned about Il-20 they wuld have given the Russians 10-15 mins notice to move the aircraft from the airspace beyond the reach of israel or syrian sam but they gave less than 1 minute notice inspite of deconfliction mechanism available to them

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 25 Sep 2018 17:53

Russia will establish an unofficial no-fly zone over Syria

http://thesaker.is/russia-will-establis ... ver-syria/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 25 Sep 2018 21:03

question is why would israel be so concerned with the IL20 which was not spying on them but more lurking over Idlib and Med sea...unless they took supari from someone else...

15 min briefing with airborne maps by russian MOD showing the devious and cynical game played by the f16s with the hapless ilyushin and the primitive syrian s200 onboard radar


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby dnivas » 25 Sep 2018 22:31

Saw the Russian MOD video as well. very devious of the F-16's
https://www.rt.com/news/439246-russian- ... -f-16-hid/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby nam » 25 Sep 2018 22:43

So IL20 was in Nothern part. It was asked to leave the area and land in western airbase. Meanwhile IsAF jets were actually on the western coast.

It is difficult to say if IsAF pilot deliberately put the F16 behind IL20 or it just happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, when the missile flew.

And it seems like S200 shoots down the biggest thing in the sky.

Now with S300 coming in and IsAF using stand off PGM, it is anybody's guess what is going to get shotdown in Syrian or Israeli airspace.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby dnivas » 25 Sep 2018 23:31

They only got 1 min warning. How can they be in the wrong place. They were just going about their tracks

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby nam » 26 Sep 2018 00:12

dnivas wrote:They only got 1 min warning. How can they be in the wrong place. They were just going about their tracks


IL20 was asked to return to base when the warning was issued. The Russians assumed the attack was in the North, as the warned was issued for that region. IL20 was flying the in the north, around Idlib.

The SAM was fired a while later, when the F16s "seem" to come down for another attack from the west. This is mentioned in the presentation video.

The first actual IsAf attack was at 21:49 and IL20 was shot down after 21:59

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 26 Sep 2018 17:57

The Israel seems to be attacking Syria with Impunity and the Russian would conviniently look on the other side.

Now they have 15 dead bodies of their own Air Men and Russia realised the cost of conviniently looking the other way

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Sep 2018 01:08

It was almost-certainly a setup by the Y. But why? They had a sweet deal with the Russkies allowing them to kill Eyeranians. Now General Smirnoff's people are mad at Putin (note divergence in tones between them) An effective no-fly zone has been imposed. Detection and SAM systems are going to get upgraded to latest level.

All said and done, if S400 were to down, say, a couple of YY Eph Painthees in addition to Eph Solahs, drones and standoff mijjiles, the market value of S400 will go ballistic, no pun intended. Plus, the market for gee-whiz Y systems such as those will plunge, compared to the demonstrated effectiveness of Su-24s.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 27 Sep 2018 07:33

i think Putin faced a revolt by his general staff and was forced to concede their demands. in his first comments he had just wrung his hands and said it was a 'tragic chain of circumstances' while general staff reacted with rage. his cozy deal with netanyahu is now under the scanner at highest levels as to what it gains russia. domestically a lot of russian jews apparently have israeli passports or close relatives there...so thats another pressure point israel was using.

or maybe it was a put on act so Putin could wring his hands for Netanyanhu saying look I didnt want to do it, the big bad generals made me do it.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 27 Sep 2018 07:58

https://en.muraselon.com/2018/09/how-ma ... -to-syria/

The Russian daily “Kommersant” said Moscow would send about four battalions of S-300 air defense to Syria within two weeks, according to an informed source.

According to Kommersant, The S-300 air defense missile system would cover facilities on the Syrian coast and monitor the Syrian border with Israel as well as with Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon.

The source explained that the number of battalions of the S-300 missile system, which will be sent to Syria could rise to 6 or 8 battalions, depending on developments and conditions as needed.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 27 Sep 2018 08:01


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Cain Marko » 27 Sep 2018 09:48

Singha wrote:https://en.muraselon.com/2018/09/how-many-s-300-battalions-russia-will-send-to-syria/

The Russian daily “Kommersant” said Moscow would send about four battalions of S-300 air defense to Syria within two weeks, according to an informed source.

According to Kommersant, The S-300 air defense missile system would cover facilities on the Syrian coast and monitor the Syrian border with Israel as well as with Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon.

The source explained that the number of battalions of the S-300 missile system, which will be sent to Syria could rise to 6 or 8 battalions, depending on developments and conditions as needed.


Since they have been replacing s300s with 400s, they probably have a few batteries they can spare. Things just got hotter in Syrian airspace. Wonder if russkis will try a nfz type bandobast..

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 27 Sep 2018 09:49

officially no. but with a C3I integration of ADGES with syrian missile batteries, they have a cats paw for wink wink nudge nudge shots.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 27 Sep 2018 10:17

UlanBatori wrote:It was almost-certainly a setup by the Y. But why? .


I think the Israel were expecting Russikies/IRan to enter into long drawn battle in Idlib with IS and with US UK , French threatening them it was sweet battle cry for Israels

But the deal reached with Turkish President for deconflict zone spoiled the plan and within 1-2 hour of deal getting reached and Putin press with Erdgon , Israel carried the attack.

How is that Israel intel can find all the nice targets to attack only under SAA and not under IS terrirtory ? Why was idlib never a target for IsAF ?

its a game played by israels for a long time and Russkies was too happy to please them looking at the other side , Now Russikes have their own 15 dead bodies either by mistake or by plan and they have to react.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 27 Sep 2018 10:56

thing is 3 F16 of the 4 that launched the initial attack on coast , remained far away while only 1 returned toward the coast to bait the syrian SAMs knowing well under its own radar or via G550 awacs over the sea that the big and slow ilyushin would come in the way.

perhaps the leader of the troop detected the ilyushin and decided on spur of moment to return for a second attack, taking advantage of a bigger russian target to inhibit the syrian SAMs. maybe he thought the hymenim ATC would phone the syrians not to launch SAMs so he could release bombs and get away again. he did not know the russians AD is not co-ordinated with the syrians.......when missile fired he realized he need to duck and run, used the ilyushin as a cover for some time and then sped away in opposite direction.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 27 Sep 2018 14:03

Syria and Iran finally had had enough of the Russians colluding with Israelis in attacking hezbollah and Iranians. So they decided to shoot down a helpless Russian plane to teach the russkies a lesson.
Russia should come clear on its Israel policy and if it condones Israeli attacks on Syria rather than indulge in usual Russkie double game.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 27 Sep 2018 15:47

From haaretz

Downing of Russian plane: Moscow rejected Israeli offer to send diplomatic delegation

Israel had initially wanted to send a delegation headed by National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat to Moscow that would have included representatives of the IAF and military General Staff. Russia rejected this suggestion. According to several sources, the possibility was raised that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman would go to Moscow to try to calm things down. Russia, however, preferred that the contacts remain at the professional level, between Norkin and the commander of the Russian air force.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 27 Sep 2018 16:08

It was declared by the Russians that 2 regiments of S-300 will be delivered.
Each regiment includes 2 divisions.
Each division by standard includes 12 launching machines.
Each launching machine carries 4 missiles.
So, it’s gonna be 4*12*2*2 = 192 missiles in the launching tubes.
But number of launching machines per division can vary. In the Russian army the range is between 8-12 machines. So, in Syria range can be 128 – 192 of missiles on launching pads.”, and they said it may even go to 4 or 8 reg sets, that means between 384 to 768 missiles ready to launch and this does not include the reload spares.
So 24 to 48 S300 are enough to cover both syria and iraq.

Lets say Syria eventually gets
6 battalions of S-300VMD Around 200 missiles immediately but can go upto around 1000 eventually..
20 Buk M2
36 Pantsir S1/S2
25 Tor M2-U
15 S-125 2M

In essence it would take a major nato effort to take out the Syrian AD after this. Israel will not be able to do it. Russia has 100’s of these S300’s mothballed and ready to retire. They also have tens of thousands of missiles to counter the US global prompt strike missile complex which has to take out like 10000 cruise missiles in an hour.


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