Levant crisis - III

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 27 Sep 2018 19:19

Austin wrote:Seems F-16I was either shot down by SA-3 or S-200

Whats the S-300 for? S-200 can take care of Israeli planes.

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Levant crisis - III

Postby Peregrine » 27 Sep 2018 19:42

Iran’s Enemies Strike Back

The government in Tehran made its move. Now, it’s being boxed in.

An interesting thing happened last week. A Russian reconnaissance plane was shot down by the Syrian army, so naturally Russia blamed Israel, claiming that Israel used the plane to shield its own fighter aircraft, en route to strike Iranian positions in Syria. Interesting though that charge may be, it’s far less fascinating than Moscow’s other quibble – that the Israelis had failed to give the Russians sufficient warning that they were entering Russia-controlled airspace in Syria. This runs counter to an arrangement whereby Israel, Russia and the U.S. pledged to inform each other about aircraft movement, so congested have the skies there become. In other words, the Russians didn’t object to the fact that Israel entered Syrian airspace – they objected to the fact they weren’t given much of a heads up.

The Russians knew what Israel was up to. The air campaign against Iran in Syria has been going on for some time. And since Iran tends to be unprepared for these attacks, it’s safe to assume the Russians aren’t tipping off the Iranians. The only conclusion that I can come to, being the simple-minded man I am, is that Russia doesn’t seem to mind it when Israel bombs Iran. In the ensuing dispute over who was responsible for shooting down the Russian aircraft, accusations abounded, but the fact that the Israelis bombed the Iranians never emerged as a significant issue.

The tectonic plates of the Middle East have been in motion recently, and this episode is part of that realignment. Russia made a deal with Turkey that seems to have taken a Russia-led assault on Idlib off the table, leaving Bashar Assad, who wanted to take Idlib to secure Syria’s northwestern frontier, out in the cold. Assad may not like it, but he isn’t upset enough to shoot down the plane of one of his biggest benefactors. Even so, Russia’s relations with Syria are a little shaky, as are its relations with Iran, the would-be target of Israeli attacks.

The realignment may not tell us much we didn’t already know in that regard, but it reveals a lot about how far Russia and Israel are willing to cooperate. But it also indicates that Russia very much wants to find some basis for a long-term relationship with Turkey, whose stewardship of the Bosporus is one of Russia’s oldest geopolitical imperatives. The Bosporus makes any Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean shaky. It can pose a challenge to Russia in the Caucasus, an important Russian buffer zone. And when Turkey is allied with the United States, as it more or less is now, Washington has the ability to project air power throughout the region, particularly in the Black Sea.

And so, for Russia, an alliance with Turkey would be a dream come true. Not so for Turkey, which is historically suspicious of Russia, having fought and conspired against it for years. The government in Ankara knows that an alliance with Russia, without a backup plan, would be unwise. We are far from an alliance, but with the Idlib agreement, at least we know outright conflict has been avoided.

Russia is thus cooperating with Israel and courting Turkey. It has proved what it wanted to prove in Syria, that it is still a global power, unafraid of the U.S. and the West. Assad survived. Russia can claim success. Iran was useful in this regard, but when Syria is secure, Iran’s value falls. The Turks have no love for the Iranians, whose expansion in the region was never a matter of great enthusiasm for Turkey or Russia. It was situational, and the situation is changing.

The catalyst for change was Iranian expansion. The government in Tehran took advantage of an opportunity created by the defeat of the Islamic State to assert itself in Iraq, a country that is essential to the security of Iran’s western border. It established a powerful presence in Lebanon long ago and is supporting rebels in Yemen. But it is spreading itself too thin. Iran can project enough power to be politically relevant in all these countries but not enough to hold its position against a determined foreign power.

Enter Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel. The Saudis share with Israel a sense that Iran is their primary enemy. Neither Israel nor the Saudis want to see Iranian influence spread any further than it already has. It’s little wonder, then, that Saudi and Emirati media have reported that Israel sold Saudi Arabia its Iron Dome missile defense system. (The Saudis and Israelis tend to loathe each other publicly but cooperate with each other secretly.) If true, the sale means their relationship is now out in the open, creating an informal alliance from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea. Add to this Egypt, with which Israel has engaged on security issues for some time, and that alliance stretches to the Red Sea.

It’s a peculiar bloc, constituted as it is by Sunni Arabs and Israelis, but already it is taking action. Israel is attacking Iran in Syria, and it is preparing for a fight with Hezbollah in Lebanon in the not-too-distant future. The Turks are in an uneasy alliance with the Sunnis, but they are allied nonetheless. The Russians are essentially giving the go-ahead to airstrikes. The Iranians are being boxed in.

Missing from this narrative, of course, is the United States. It has adopted a strategy I assumed it would, allowing the local balance of power to deal with matters, and being the last recourse, not the first. The U.S. has not abdicated responsibility entirely. It continues to wage economic war against Iran, and it maintains special operations forces in the region to train and support some of these newfound relationships.

The story of a downed Russian plane, then, is really a story about Iran. It made its move, and now its enemies are fighting back. The real battle, whether overt or covert, has not yet begun.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Sep 2018 20:03

When all is said and done, the Y are good chess players But so is Putin garu. 15 brave Russians dead, but I think the game is changed. The days of free run for the YAF over Syria are over? Since the Bekaa valley of 1980, this is the biggest set-back for the Y, and seriously erodes their ability to keep Iranian mijjiles out of range. If short-range missiles can hit deep targets, then Iranians can bring in enough numbers to overwhelm Iron Dome.

DT's Biss Strategy is winning. Better for the Y to offer Eyeran the bait of collaboration in facing down the Wahabis. I think that attack on the Iranian Parade takes on new significance. Wonder if it was false-flag.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Sep 2018 20:23

The other news at that site above, is that Russians are bringing in BVI hypersonic AAMs. The story about Iran being boxed in, seems exactly opposite to what I would conclude. All the scampering by BB and his Mantris to go to Moscow, indicates serious tummy acid in Tel Aviv.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Peregrine » 27 Sep 2018 20:27

UlanBatori wrote:The other news at that site above, is that Russians are bringing in BVI hypersonic AAMs. The story about Iran being boxed in, seems exactly opposite to what I would conclude. All the scampering by BB and his Mantris to go to Moscow, indicates serious tummy acid in Tel Aviv.
UlanBatori Ji:

Thank you - if I may say so - Ol' Cube Friend.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Sep 2018 20:36

I think YAF outstmarted themselves as someone pointed out: they thought hiding behind the Rooskie plane would prevent a SAM from the Syrians. This is where they overestimated the Syrians and Russia-Syria coordination: The rooskies probably don't believe in telling Damascus who is flying in and out of Latakia. Now Putin can see as clearly as I can that the disaster has opened up some VERY interesting opportunities. One is hypersonic BVI mijjiles.

Putin telling NutNYahoo types to explain to General Smirnoff, is a curt and blunt reminder. But Putin is not just going to "forgive and forget". I think this changes balance of power. Syrian S-300/400 will also give pause to "NATO" types. So it is a necessary step to consolidate air superiority over all of Syria before re-opening the Idlib and Tal Afar questions. All the speculation about Assad being dissed, is just that: hopeful speculation from losers.

Remember:
Obama plays checkers. Putin plays chess.

And DT is basically aligned with Putin in the Syria mess.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 27 Sep 2018 21:19


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 27 Sep 2018 22:22

Russia to supply Syria with up to eight S-300 units – report
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ru ... ts-report/
Syrian Army to receive short-range defense missiles along with S-300 system: report
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sy ... em-report/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 27 Sep 2018 23:02

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 27 Sep 2018 23:15

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mide ... SKCN1M51KE
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday Israel would continue its military operations in Syria, after Russia announced it would supply an advanced anti-aircraft system to its Syrian ally.


Russian military intervention in Syria started in September 2015. This September we are celebrating 3 years of Russian intervention. 8)
It is three years of Levant crisis thread predicting that Russians are going to kick Israeli ass.
In the meantime, Israel keeps bombing whoever it wants in Syria.

Does this shake our faith?! Nope!!
We should not let facts come in way of our faith.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Sep 2018 23:40

Isn't that what they said about the German invasion of Russia, 1941-1944? :)

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Rudradev » 28 Sep 2018 02:23

One hears a lot about how Putin will never forgive Israel the loss of the IL-20 crew, and that retaliation when it comes... any moment now... is bound to be a terrible vengeance.

One heard similar things after the loss of the Su24 over Turkey as well.

And again, after the 300(!)-odd Russian contractors were killed by American strikes near Deir Ezzour.

I'm not sure if these myths stand up to scrutiny anywhere but BRF these days. Putin doesn't get baited into things. He takes tactical losses on the chin and keeps going after the strategic prize.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Sep 2018 04:01

Rdji, The Su24 mess turned into Turkey's Heart and Mind being won over, remember. I am sure that out of the news, there was some heart-2-heart exchange of views with Erdogan.

I don't know about the 300-odd contractors being killed, but US is basically out of Syria. IL-20 has already turned into a NoFly Zone and upgrading of Syrian AD system with systems that are red flags to NATO anywhere. So yes, u r right, Putin does not get baited into "retaliations" but he exploits each for major nonlinear gains. I don't think Israel will be turned against US/NATO, but I do think the Israel-KSA lovefest has its days numbered. And the result may be collapse of the KSA in Yemen. IOW, Russian warm-water/oil access to MidEast/Red Sea/Gelf.

Denying which, was the whole aim of the Reagan support of the Afghan terrorists.

And at the same time, we hear little about US being able to control the Russia-NoKo linkage, which means Putin is moving south to warmer Pacific waters from Vladivostok. Soon there will be (if they are not already there) a Russian naval base on Noko's southern coast, close enough to make faces at both SoKo and Japan. And Putin has established lovefest with Eleven too.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 28 Sep 2018 11:45

Turkey will be totally destroyed by NATO proxies in an attempt to control the bosphorus and black sea so that forces patrolling bosphorus are hostile to Russians. In response Russia will totally sterilize turkey coastline and bosphorus. Turkey has no future.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 28 Sep 2018 12:00

If you need to know the full history of the ‘Kateebat al-Turkistani’ the Uighur terrorist gang brought to Syria by the ****** Erdogan, Stephen Sahiounie, whose record of the Deraa destablilisation of 2001 is a stand-out, has documented them.

These filthy swine invaded Idlib and K-T became a battalion of al-Nusra as of mid-2016. They massacred whole families and moved into their houses while a river of blood was still flowing out the front doors (there were pictures of these) Their full, hideous story will prepare you to enjoy the impending news of these savages’ untidy deaths.
https://21stcenturywire.com/2018/09/26/ ... or-terror/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 28 Sep 2018 16:00

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... 89a606c0ba

Bolton: U.S. forces will stay in Syria until Iran and its proxies depart.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 29 Sep 2018 10:00

America’s recent military buildup around Syria is far more serious than suspected. Analysts have predicted a third in the most recent series of fake gas attacks on Syrian civilians since 2015, there were several earlier as well, and a predicted US military response, aided by Britain and France.

Something broader, more comprehensive has been uncovered, an offensive on the ground as well, originating from US controlled areas of Southern Syria at Al Tanf and from inside Kurdish/SDF areas well.

Sources that have traced the military buildup in these regions to America arming and training ISIS units, now under the flag of the “Lions of the East Army.” The real Lions of the East were a tribal militia from the Deir Ezzor region, who had surrendered to the Syrian Arab Army in April 2018 and had been evacuated to Turkish controlled areas north of Aleppo.

They are now “reborn” out of former ISIS prisoners released from prison in Hasakah and Raqqah and rearmed and trained by US Army Special Forces. From there, they were moved to al Tanf and camps in Eastern Syria where they have been reinforced by ISIS commands operating under US protection, as confirmed by multiple sources.

https://journal-neo.org/2018/09/27/top-secret-america

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 29 Sep 2018 10:02

Crew of IL20

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 29 Sep 2018 10:29

US Ambassador James Jeffrey speaking about Assad’s Syria

“Assad is “sitting on a cadaver state with almost no economy, no access to his fuel and gas resources,” and “no hope” of reconstruction aid, because the US, “supported by a very strong majority in the European Union, is blocking that”

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 29 Sep 2018 10:42

An interesting arrival at Hmeim airbase – a Tu-214PU s/n 64517. This plane type is designed to sarve as “home flights and flights abroad for the highest state leaders President and Prime Minister of Russia. It is equipped for their comfort with a wide range of communications equipment (and protection – nickname the ‘President’ system).
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 30 Sep 2018 21:13

a fleet of half dozen IL76 seem to be ferrying in something big perhaps EW and s300 components via mozdok - caspian sea - iran - iraq usual route
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Vladimir Mikheyev of Radioelectronics Technologies about Israeli threats to destroy Syrian S-300: 'We will deliver Krasukha & Zhitel electronic warfare units to Syria & these systems will place its air defenses under an "electronic umbrella," making it hard to spot & attack them.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 30 Sep 2018 21:22

mainly the IL76 are flying in radars and ew modules while the huge TELARs and missile tubes and reloads are coming by ship. they are far too big for the IL76 and only AN124 is big enough.
ships are best mode as number is large.

significant number of vshorads like Tor and Pantsyrs will need to be provided for close in protection

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Oct 2018 12:42

CNN
(CNN)Iran launched multiple missiles into eastern Syria early Monday targeting militants allegedly involved in the September 22 attack on a military parade in Ahvaz, according to state media.

Six ballistic missiles were launched from Kermanshah, Iran, and hit targets in the Al Bukamal district of eastern Syria, the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Seven military drones also fired missiles into the area, the statement added.

Iran accuses Saudi Arabia, UAE of financing military parade attackers
The missiles had "death to America," "death to Israel" and "death to Saudi Arabia" written on them, according to the semi-official Fars News.
Multiple individuals responsible for the Ahvaz attack were killed or injured in the strike, IRNA reported without specifics.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Oct 2018 12:43


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Oct 2018 12:44

Within Syria


@WithinSyriaBlog
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Iranian unofficial sources are saying that the IRGC's missiles hit positions of ISIS in Hajin and Al-Shaafah in Syria. US coalition forces are locate only few kilometers east of these towns.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Oct 2018 16:11

this is said to be a prototype anti - satellite missile test. the 3rd new weapon for Mig31BM after the A2G Kinzhal and A2A R37M
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Oct 2018 16:14

Ian Grant


@Gjoene
Sep 27
More Ian Grant Retweeted NOS
A #jihadist terror attack was prevent by #Dutch security forces. 7 male suspects were arrested, Some of who were trying to travel to #Iraq/#Syria to join #ISIS in the past. With the arrest, the planned massacre at a local faire was prevented

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Oct 2018 16:24

its much larger than kinzhal,
people are saying could be a ASBM or a ASAT. Mig31BM with its speed, height, range and heavy centerline payload is the ideal workhorse for such special weapons

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/23 ... ear-moscow
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby nam » 01 Oct 2018 16:29

Syria is the temple ki ghanti. Everyone is bajayo it.

Next time we need to part one of our ship in Med and fire off few rounds of Brahmos at some "LET" positions.

Given that we don't have the b**ls to do it to Lahore, which is 2 km from our border.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Oct 2018 16:32

a steady stream of AN124 have been noted flying unknown assets into hymenim. flightradar24 screenshots are there in twitter.

this is apart from the line of Il76 from mozdok afb and other ports of call in south russia.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Oct 2018 19:15


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Oct 2018 19:19

Footage of irgc fac flotilla shadowing a cvn in straits of hormouz

https://www.rt.com/news/439970-iran-us-carrier-video/

These revolutionary craft look hardly seaworthy more like motor launches for utility work but useful to fly the flag in hybrid war ops

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 01 Oct 2018 20:17

Those are short-range, obviously. Propulsion is by propellers located well above the craft. So they will sound like aircraft engines, so they may not register on sonar. Maybe what keeps them stable is what is below the water line, as in a couple of torpedos each. When I was a kid I used to imagine the "ideal" counter to big warships, and it was something like this: very fast boats, each with the sole function of serving as a torpedo platform, launching 2 or maybe 4 torpedos. The torpedo has to worry about setting the right course for the selected target: these boats' sole mission is to zip in to torpedo range, launch and get out if they are still alive. A swarm of these from all sides can pose a pretty horrendous threat, even to something as well-defended as a CVN, hain? They can be remote-controlled too.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Oct 2018 21:19

The ww2 german E-boats were that
The british motor torpedo boats were a bit larger

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-boat

Mostly large navies lacking similar sized escorts would look to atgm armed naval helis and ciws guns to repel the swarms

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Oct 2018 06:59

E-boat looks pretty, but I imagine that it was terrible in rough seas, or going 48 knots. I cannot imagine how they built such beautiful pieces of engineering in the starving economy of 1920s Germany! Years later the MTB etc could not match its power.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 02 Oct 2018 09:14

i guess they were meant for calmer waters like baltic sea and coastal fights. I dont think they will survive a proper nord sea winter storm.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 02 Oct 2018 09:25

Brasco_Aad


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US Pentagon official: missiles fired by Iran came within three miles of US troops in Deir Ezzor governorate Syria.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 02 Oct 2018 09:27

https://www.wsj.com/articles/on-iran-wh ... 1538386200
WASHINGTON—The Trump administration has been steadily ramping up its rhetoric on the threat posed by Iran this year. But the U.S. military has scaled back its presence in the Persian Gulf region, say officials and military experts, removing ships, planes and missiles that would be needed in a major confrontation.

There has been no U.S. aircraft carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf since the Theodore Roosevelt left for the Pacific in March, the longest period of time in two decades that a carrier hasn’t traveled those waters, according to officials familiar with carrier deployments.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 02 Oct 2018 15:10

Russia lost 112 servicemen, 8 planes and 7 helicopters over three years of counter-terror operation in Syria

https://www.ruaviation.com/news/2018/10/2/12063/

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 02 Oct 2018 15:11

Singha wrote:Brasco_Aad


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US Pentagon official: missiles fired by Iran came within three miles of US troops in Deir Ezzor governorate Syria.


What is US troop doing close to 3 miles of terrorist group other than training them :rotfl:


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