Rudradev wrote:krishna_krishna wrote:I believe then you have false impression on capabilities of US milistary, just look at Syria , ookraine and Afghanistan.
Also there are contractors on the ground since many years in Afghanistan, why they failed to deliver thus far in Afghanistan (and I also may add Syria ) ?
When you rely on one-line assertions based on preconceived notions rather than facts, it becomes difficult to respond to your arguments seriously.
The facts are as follows:
-"Contractors" can be there for many purposes, and indeed most of the contractors in Afghanistan right now are non-combatants. If the bulk of the fighting force is official US military, it does not matter if contractors are also present. US press coverage and domestic political pressure will still be focused on the war.
- On the other hand the US is involved in multiple conflicts around the world where the bulk of fighting forces are contractors (with only a few SF, drone operators, etc thrown in). These conflicts remain far away from public view for exactly that reason. US voters forget about what is not directly in their faces.
-If the US fighting force in Afghanistan can become primarily contractor-based instead of primarily-US-military based, it gets downgraded in the public consciousness because Americans will stop thinking about it. This will allow the US to essentially maintain a presence in Afghanistan for as long as it likes without domestic political backlash.
-Anyone who thinks the US military-industrial complex will run out of money (@ steady burn rate of ~$50B per year in Afghanistan since 2016), please do the maths. This is not even 10% of US' annual defence budget.
-Hence if the US replaces its official military fighting force in Afghanistan with a contractor-based fighting force, it will have neither financial nor domestic political constraints against remaining there indefinitely.
Conclusion #1: the US will not "win" in Afghanistan as long as it is dependent on Pakistan to supply its forces there. On the other hand neither will it "lose" in Afghanistan because nobody can push it out against its will.
Conclusion #2: the US can both save money and retain/extend influence in Afghanistan if
a) its contractor fighting-force is composed largely of non-US personnel, and cost is shared by other parties.
b) it does not have to rely on Pakistan to supply that force.
Therefore, it makes sense for the US to try and strike a deal with India.
They can offer India (i) full diplomatic and possibly intel support for a campaign to retake all of J&K (ii) a diplomatic blank cheque to dismember Pakistan as we like (iii) full support against Chini aggression if necessary (iv) opportunity to extend our influence into Afghanistan and control a land route from India-Balwaristan-Afghanistan-Central Asia.
[Note that the above also serve US interests directly as they basically make mincemeat of CPEC and offer the US an inroad to create alternatives for OBOR].
In return they will ask for deployment of Indian troops, possibly as "contractors", to replace some/all of the US military personnel in Afghanistan. And to allow Indian territory, including liberated J&K/GB, to be used as the logistical conduit for the US/Indian presence in Afghanistan.
Now I, personally, do NOT think this would be a good option for India.
Afghanistan, that Taliban are on the verge of sweeping into Kabul and then rushing into J&K for Ghazwa-e-Hind, ok... don't let me stop you.
Rdevji, My whole effort in continuing this discussion is not to get into slug fest but honest and fact based analysis , please read my posts in that spirit no offense intended. I believe this is very important to future of Bharat and whatever happens to the world especially changes in J&K. I believe this churning will help and get ideas and thoughts refined. New point of views will help clear fog and help us better analyze that situation. And "don't let me stop you", well you are not and you cannot even if you want to. Having said that let me answer you point by point.
My one liner are because you are basing all your assumptions/hypothesis that these legendary/mythical fighting contractors force (or I should say mercenary as appropriate term used by someone above) will be able to dominate and defeat tali bunnies and will have umrica have peaceful life in Afghanistan like rest of the overseas based across the world.
If we do fact based analysis all of these even to be sustainable or feasible they need to have assured and safe supply lines. Now you yourself admitted that their supply lines dependent on Pakistan where this will lead to.
Here is one more fact on the contractors to keep their profit margins fat, military contractors tend to subcontract on cheap labor from poor nations, a practice that’s led to “forced labor, slavery, and sexual exploitation,”. In a trip to Iraq in 2009, us commissioners learned about the mostly African and South American guards hired by companies like Triple Canopy, SABRE, and EODT to provide security on big US bases. Among their discoveries: Guards were often ill-equipped, worked unusually long tours with 12-hour shifts, were denied their one-month vacations, and weren’t paid until their contracts were finished, essentially forcing them to endure their assignments to the end. The government paid SABRE $1,700 per guard; in turn, SABRE paid its Ugandan recruits $700 a month and pocketed the difference. So all in all these multinationals will continue to mint money and you tell me what would be effectivity of such force ?
I agree with you when you say that it would be in us interest to strike a deal with India, but will they ? They already made it clear what they have in mind when they announced intention to be a mediatory in cashmere,promising goodies to cricketer ityadi. And we know where it will lead them to.
And I also agree with you that India troops even as a contractors for Afghanistan will be not be good for India. What we need is continue to build up and getting Gilgit baltistan and areas of PoK Slowly under our control , bit by bit taking our land back and get the land route secured to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Then Hari singh nalwa or kanishka will rise again to put the border of Afghanistan to perisa (as YamaR suggested).