Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

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yensoy
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by yensoy »

Y I Patel wrote:
ramana wrote:Yogi, US role is over. We should think from Indian perspective only.
Loud message coming from ORF (Samewr Saran) and Sushant Sareen: if US wants India’s continued help against China in the IndiPacific, then US must help India confront China-Pak in Afg and CA. Either US is a partner everywhere, or it will not be a partner anywhere. So no longer about India helping or supporting US. Equal partnership or nothing.
Not sure I agree with this wording (maybe you paraphrased it?) because it seems like this is our request for keeping us happy. Fact is that this is a precondition if they really wish to solve their problem. Confronting Pak is the bitter medicine they need to swallow in order to make the headache go away, and not to pretend the headache will go if they stop thinking about it. West better heed this advice for their own good whether or not they want to partner with us. Of course if they don't heed this advice, any partnership matters little.
ldev
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ldev »

Y I Patel wrote:
ldev wrote:
Talking of the US helping India vs China-Pak in Afghanistan and CA, taking on POK from the east and the Wakkhan Corridor from Tajikstan will sever the link between China and Pakistan. It will benefit both India and the US, by cutting off Chinese communications with Pakistan for India and by stopping/ containing Chinese expansion towards the Gulf for the US.
Yes. This is the first time I am getting a sense here in US that they realize just how much Pakistan has screwed them. Pakis can no longer count on US gullibility to shelter behind, Gilgit-Baltistan are fair game now.
I also believe that Pakistani's double game has finally registered with the US power centers. I saw a snippet of Biden the other day on TV where he said, paraphrasing, "the countries that are happy with the Taliban takeover are China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan." The Russia and Iran reference is the obligatory talking point, but I have never heard of Pakistan being mentioned in the same sentence as the others until now. And Biden will speak what the establishment behind him has agreed upon.

The US military has known for the last 20 years that Pakistan is the problem but they were unable to convince the politicians and national security establishment to let them go after the Taliban in Pakistan. I remember watching an interview with a company Commander of the 101st Airborne Division who was assigned to guard a part of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in November 2001. He said that first winter when the Taliban melted away across the border into Pakistan to rest and recuperate for the winter and then come back in the spring for the fighting season and the US Army were refused permission to go across into Pakistan, that he knew that insurgency would never be defeated so long as the Taliban had a sanctuary in Pakistan. Uncannily similar to the view expressed by the retired Indian diplomat to the US in about the same time period.
ldev
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ldev »

Y I Patel wrote:Afghanistan is a massive, unprecedented debacle for the US. But the Doha process led to the Afg government being badly undermined and resulted in the collapse of the army. Russia had a big role in that process in supporting the Taliban, and the final outcome is a stinging setback to Russia as well. India has not taken kindly to being excluded and at Russia's flirtation with Pakistan. India's ambassador stating that very diplomatically but in no uncertain terms:

" Neither the Doha talks nor the Troika Plus talks have yielded the right results... I think one lesson is that it is better that India and Russia work together with respect to Afghanistan."

So the message to Russia is a harsh one as well. Cooperate, or lose out on the one able and reliable partner in the region.
You are correct. Russia also badly mis-judged the situation. Up until August 15 Russia said that they had received assurances from the Taliban that all Russians would be safe in Afghanistan and life would continue as normal in Afghanistan for the Russians. Barely 10 days later on August 25th, all non essential Russian were pulled out. The change in posture and the evacuation orders came directly from Putin, presumably because they saw the yawning gap between promise and reality. So now Russia is ready to talk turkey with India and the visit of their NSA with a big delegation.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Y I Patel »

yensoy wrote: ...
Not sure I agree with this wording (maybe you paraphrased it?) because it seems like this is our request for keeping us happy. Fact is that this is a precondition if they really wish to solve their problem. Confronting Pak is the bitter medicine they need to swallow in order to make the headache go away, and not to pretend the headache will go if they stop thinking about it. West better heed this advice for their own good whether or not they want to partner with us. Of course if they don't heed this advice, any partnership matters little.
Nope. No paraphrasing on my part. Here's Sushant Sareen's tweet and article: High time India asks the US: “Are you with us or against us”?

It is not India's style anymore to be a loudmouth. But the message needs to be sent, and it will be heard loud and clear.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Atmavik »

https://mobile.twitter.com/saurabhvashi ... 9761984514

Good info on Tajikistan. They r already in the lizards debt trap
ramana
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ramana »

Cyrano wrote:If the US stops being globocop, their MIC will shrivel, dollar will fall, QE karma will come calling, markets will tank, housing crisis will hit the roof, small investors & middle class reeling from covid will get wiped out. Biden wont be let loose to wreck the rich and suburbia at the same time. Expect Kennedy's fate.
Biden due to age etc. will be a one-termer. So they will put all the bokwas on him and restart.

That's what JS was saying that US restarts every so often and is resilient.

It's a post-modern world where everything solid melts into the air.
So don't go by any monuments. They all will be passed over by time.
We all grew up on MB but never learned any of the lessons.
The US was the only power that could displace its ineffective puppets and bring in the Taliban.
Karzai and Ghani were weak govts and then you have Afghanistan's unforgiving geography and the relentless jihadi rein of terror with bases in Pakistan. US did not go after these terror bases for its own twisted logic.

These two were no different than Hafizullah Amin and Barbak Karmal during the Soviet era. All incompetent leaders. Yet the US which is the puppet master blamed these two and brought in Taliban.
Look at the irony that the US gave wanted posters for 4 of the Taliban cabinet ministers with rewards of over $5M each and the same time used to give aid to Pakistan which was housing these wanted men!!!
Talk about Duplicity Central (DC)
srin
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by srin »

The Russian and Iranian support is only to the Khan defeat and exit from Central Asia and are not pro-Taliban per se.
The Russians are wary of Taliban incursion into the -Stans, which they regard as their backyard.
The Iranians know that Taliban are hardcore Sunni (as much as they are hardcode Shia) and Shias are going to be hunted down eventually.

The Chinese are into the appeasement phase right now, eyeing the supposed vast mineral reserves. The Taliban also want the Chinese money to sustain themselves - perhaps in return for non intervention in Xingjiang.
My feeling is that Bakis are the worst off. Not only are they very close to "eating grass" phase, but they have a dependent neighbour in even worse situation, and who isn't going to respect borders, and who has deep influence within the populace. The Durand line will become a de facto Durand "zone" in foreseeable future.

Things are all set for a bloody intelligence war in Af-Pak and Central Asia.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Atmavik »

ramana wrote: Biden due to age etc. will be a one-termer. So they will put all the bokwas on him and restart.

That's what JS was saying that US restarts every so often and is resilient.
I recently read peter Bergen’s Manhunt. In the book Biden came across as a risk averse pessimist. On the otherhand blinken was the opposite, I had some hope from this admin because of blinken but the events in Afghanistan have showed him in poor light.

The us badly needs a bush sr type president after the last 2 jokers or should I say last 4.

As for the quad I would watch the Aussies if they bolt that means us is really leaving Asia.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Dilbu »

From a paki news outlet.
US, EU reject interim Taliban government
RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany: The US, EU have termed the "caretaker" government unveiled by the Taliban in Afghanistan as failing to honour vows from the new rulers to include different groups, while Washington underlined the Taliban would have to earn legitimacy from the world, foreign media reported.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Wednesday that the Taliban would have to earn legitimacy from the world, after talks with allies on how to present a united front to the hardline new government in Afghanistan. "The Taliban seek international legitimacy. Any legitimacy -- any support -- will have to be earned," Blinken told reporters at the US air base in Ramstein, Germany, after leading a 20-nation ministerial meeting on the Afghan crisis. Among the countries that participated in the virtual meeting were European allies and Pakistan. US officials have stressed that any official recognition of a Taliban government is far off.

Blinken and Maas both criticised the caretaker government, which has no women or non-Taliban members and includes an interior minister the United States wants to arrest on terrorism accusations. Blinken said the caretaker cabinet would be judged "by its actions", while his German counterpart added he was "not optimistic".

Standing alongside him, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said the international community expected the Taliban to uphold human rights, including those of women, grant access to humanitarian aid and allow those wishing to leave the country to do so :D . Voicing concern about the government's composition, German Foreign Minister said he saw little reason for optimism about conditions in Afghanistan.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Dilbu »

Danil Bochkov writes in The Diplomat.
‘Great Game’ Redux in Afghanistan?
One more pillar of regional security are intensified China-Russia military exchanges. In the most recent China-hosted military exercises, Russian servicemembers used Chinese weaponry, while China’s most advanced military hardware, such as J-20 fighters, participated in the drills. These developments signify trust and deepening collaboration. Continuing the trend, Beijing sent its top-notch military aircraft to make their debut at the International Army Games in Russia.

In a show of growing partnership and political bromance, Russia and China have agreed to foster collaboration over Afghanistan and pledged to strengthen strategic communication and mutually “safeguard the rightful interests.” On August 25, Putin and Xi Jinping aligned their stances on the Afghan issue, sharing mutual concerns and interests and vowing closer cooperation to prevent interference by any foreign country. Breaking away from the Western-led efforts to pressure the Taliban on human rights and evacuation deadlines and procedures, China and Russia jointly abstained from any calls echoing the G-7’s statement.
Against the backdrop of Afghanistan’s political imbroglio, Russia and China have once again displayed their close interaction om international platforms. They jointly abstained from voting for a resolution on Afghanistan that was passed by the other 13 United Nations Security Council members on August 30. Among other points of disagreement, such as concern over the suspension of Afghanistan’s financial assets, Moscow also wanted the resolution to specifically criticize ETIM – a critical factor for Beijing, which has many times called on the United States to reconsider its decision last November to delist ETIM from the State Department terror designation list.

Such an active international move by Russia and China to break with Western-led efforts on Afghanistan caused resentment in other countries, which view such ambitions negatively and suspiciously. Writing for Foreign Policy, Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer stressed that China and Russia are “seeking to undercut whatever remaining leverage the United States might exercise over the country’s new rulers.”
China and Russia’s increasing influence in global affairs has not come without opposition. Their stance on Afghanistan, in particular, is being read in the context of the looming new cold war between Beijing and Washington. Major U.S. media highlighted that the Taliban’s ascendance to power is a “thrilling prospect” to Moscow and Beijing. U.S. Republican Senator John Kennedy claimed that “our enemies – China and Russia – are laughing” after the Taliban takeover. The EU also chimed in, with its foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, saying that EU “cannot … let the Chinese and Russians to take control of the situation.”

Is the stage set for redux of the “Great Game” in Afghanistan, as the major powers jostle for influence?
nam
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by nam »

The big delegation from the Russians indicate it is seeing a major threat to it's under belly. Probably re-start of Chechen fight with the cavemen in full power.

With the Chinis supporting the cavemen, Russia cannot relay on the Chinis. It is also stretched with commitments in Syria, Armenia & Ukraine. It doesn't have enough cash to get involved in another front. This must have been one of the criteria for US bolting out of the region..and leave a unstable mess.

So the visit must have been to make India handle some of the money issue to manage things around Tajikstan. In return for allowing us to do some dirty work..
nam
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by nam »

US, UK, Russia & Chinis must have expected Pak to make the cavemen behave.Pak must have promised a "inclusive gov", but the collapse was probably too tempting a victory to give away. The big boys must have complained about letting the cavemen loose and Pak not having control over them.

The public visit by the ISI chief must have been to show the world, who is in control. The new gov with all Pak elements again for the same.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by rsingh »

I never understood this theory of Great game. Most of the seasoned diplomats talk about this as it is universal truth. But nothing on ground. Cavemen have defeated 2 world power and they are waiting for 3rd. World powers weren't defeated militarily. They are defeated because they were more civilized. They couldn't come down to the cavemen level. So with great game. Talibans can be defeated by rebels from Somalia or Iran. JMT
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Pratyush »

Great game was about the security of India as a continental balancer. When the British Raj was fighting in Afghanistan. It was to ensure that British Indian Empire didn't face a threat from the west.

The prize of the great game was always about the security of India. From Raj point of view. While from the Russians point of view it was to prevent the Raj from meddling into the Stan's.

Keeping the Russians limited to the Stan's was a secondary goal of the Raj. But not necessarily the most pressing one. In order to understand that you have to look at the geography of the region.

So I don't believe that Raj was fighting to keep Russians out of warm water ports of Arabian Sea. Even, if the Russians got the ports. What will they be shipping and how will the shipments happen to Russia proper or even the Stan's. Silk route was not in use for a very long time. So trade was not an issue. In fact it was a bigger problem for Russians.


But now that TSP exists. Great game is no longer concerned about the security of India. Nor is it relevant. However, much the TSP would want to use Afghanistan as a training ground for jihad against India. Because in order to reach India. They will have to travel through TSP. A currupt TSP where Islamist teachings are not followed religiously, is a much more inviting target. For the future jihad University graduates in Afghanistan.

Russia will have to fend for itself. But with the ascendant PRC. It no longer has the ability to do so.

The best course of action from Russians point of view at the moment will be retreat from the Stan's and let the PRC have it all.

India can handle the situation if it doesn't get in a fight in the Stan's with Afghanistan TSP combination.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by RajaRudra »

Pakistan is an enemy we should neutralize or digest ASAP.
This will be a difficult task, as our country (democracy) has log of wagons going in different directions.

A sort emergency needs to be pressed in the country to keep everything in order and do the needful to solve the Pakistan issue for ever.

Kind of emergency should continue for as long as needed to eliminate any more internal threat from Christian missionaries and TJ kind of thugs.

Every country needs to go through a civil war kind of moment once in a while to sustain. It's better the country choose the time than wait for the situation to emerge with 50/50 probable result.

Democracy is for the people, If people are not safe and their culture and religion is getting tampered by organized Abrahamic cults. Then its time to "cold storage" / "Through out" the fashion statement like "Democracy" and "Media freedom" , "Right to speak" etc.
nam
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by nam »

Wakkan corridor is where the powers of Asia, India, China & Russia meet. Afghanistan is that door. GB was our door, which the Brits quickly closed in 47 by getting the Pak invade the region.

Although I am sort of happy that GB is not in our control. Otherwise the Afghan refugees will be streaming in GB & JK. Would have become another NWFP.
shyamd
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by shyamd »

Just wanted to share a timeline/thread
shyamd wrote: I think consensus within current TSPA establishment is they regret recognising the previous Taleban govt without support of international powers - bad PR and guilt by association. Especially that Taleban was not inclusive last time - this created its own instability. This time TSPA want there to be inclusive govt (with TSPA at the top to veto anything big .... like GOI involvement)

TSPA has outlined 2 core national interest:
1. Vision for future of Afghanistan (particularly the Durand Line border)
2. Role of India in that region

Previous Afghan govts failed on both counts. Right from the start Afghan govt told then senior TSPA officers that they don't recognise durand line.
Also the US was setting up ANDF ORBAT to focus on Pakistan(!).
Taleban takeover of Afghanistan was a necessity in their eyes. But there is no guarantee that they can control Taleban indefinitely.... Question is what is Taleban position on points 1 and 2 above.

TSPA expectation is that instability in places like FATA, Baluchistan and other places will reduce once Taleb take over is complete
shyamd wrote:
Assessment of Security Situation post Kabul takeover


TSPA priority
- TSPA support Taleban priority firstly will be to consolidate, secure and prevent any forces that can launch a counter coup. Apparently Kabul is not completely secure and the Taleban are still continuing operations.
- Negotiations are taking place between Taleban and forces that are capable of resisting thus the general amnesty for former Afghan govt officials (to complete the coup which means the Taleban/TSPA are still worried about resistance forces)
- The other issues is that TSPA know that there are a lot of groups that are not under direct C2 of TSPA - these will need to be dealt with as well eventually

- Consensus for major powers is that as long as Taleban is truly 'inclusive' then pressure will be taken off Taleban - I believe funds of the Afghan govt have been frozen or about to be frozen
- ISI backed troops such as LeT and JeM are playing a significant role. They have two roles - keep control of Taleban gangs going lose/off the chain and prevent forces that can launch a counter coup.

GOI moves
- First priority is securing all Indian nationals, diplomats and other interests of the Sikh/Hindu community. Majority of the work was completed in 48 hours from the green light given by GOI leaders.
- The next will be to re-establish connections with key players (some of whom are in Delhi) and others in central asian states.
- GOI have a choice. Either support those ready to launch a counter coup and make the point that Taleban hold is weak/vulnerable or move to a long term strategy which is to be recon/surveillance/intel focused.

With only around 9% of indian population vaccinated GOI's primary focus is to get this fixed.

Expectation is that we'll be back to stadium murders soon.
Apparently GOI - Taleban meeting was reported in arab press (the one that MEA denied that took place). Taleban said they welcome Indian investments in infra & education as these are for the benefit of all afghans. They also said the Taliban pledged to remain neutral in the India-Pakistan conflict, especially with regard to Kashmir, and affirmed that it has its own future policy on Pakistan.

They have also pledged not to interfere in Uyghur issues in china.
shyamd wrote: Be careful....maybe ISI want us to think that. From speaking to people I'm getting the sense all dirty business (terror training) will be shipped of to Afghanistan from places like Mansehra and PoK. TSP will follow the international community publicly...i.e. if the powers recognise, they will recognise... if they don't then TSP won't.

The impact will be TSPA will come out of FATF and look clean... they'll say all terror planning/training is happening from "ungoverned places".


Iran has close ties with many in Talebs but they aren't trusted.

UAE has approached Turkey for alliance on Afghan file.
Latest summary is:
- TSPA has sent feelers to London and DC on who may recognise the taleban govt. TSPA want to resolve Afg govt issue quickly because there is concern about refugee inflows
- KSA via former intel director Turki al Faisal is re-establishing contacts with Taleban. This is brokered via ISI. Meetings have been held with Mullah Yaqoob (Mullah omar's son) and other seniors. KSA view is better to have a taleb govt who will be more sympathetic vs Iran.
- I'm reminded that Taleban is a coalition of groups that range from anti TSPA, drug gangs, extremists, nationalists, Pro-Pakhtun ethnic groups, pro -TSP backed terror groups like Haqqani Network, former Afg govt officials... PLA is backing one faction, Iran another - particularly those in border districts with Iran... Russia also involved...(rumour has it ISKP was getting $$ from Russians...)... Sorting out and agreeing powersharing between these groups is proving a little difficult. Each person has earned their seat on table... and each country is having their rep on the table via shura council (incl. Iran)..
- Taleban are being asked to repay debts to these nation states like Russia, Iran, TSP, China who supported them over the years.
- UAE cooperating with Turkey/Qatar alliance on Afghanistan...but it's early days.
- Threat of counter coup has largely reduced..
shyamd wrote: Qatar has been shocked by how different the 'on ground' situation is compared to the promises made in Doha. Qatar, US and others in the region were promised a 'transitional' govt and preparations were seriously underway (hence why the ANA was asked to go slow or withdraw and their C2 had collapsed). The talib mil commanders on the ground ignored all of this and carried on incl. entering Kabul despite all promises by the Talib political leaders not to do so.

It is the military leaders who have the greatest influence over the situation.
Abdul Qayum Zakir (now the defence minister of the Taleb govt. He is the leader of Badri 313 ), Mullah Yaqoob (Mullah Omar's son and leader of the military movement) and Haqqani Network (ISI backed) are the key players in control of the situation. Apparently the military leaders are not cooperating with the political members like Stanekzai and others.

----------------------------
GOI stating that once a permanent govt is formed towards year end, they will talk to that Talib govt..
Apparently HQN faction is dominating Kabul (Jalalabad - Kabul axis). Mullah Yaqoob has Kandahar area. Not sure if its psyops but they are saying Yaqoob and Haqqani are not cooperating wrt political settlement. Haqqani wants inclusivity with previous govt but Yaqoob not interested.

UK Foreign Min met TSP/A to discuss Afg. UK and US answer is that what was promised in Doha was not delivered and therefore we are far away from recognizing Taleban Govt.

Not sure if it’s true but ISI chief in Kabul today probably to attempt to sort things out
Latest I’m hearing is that UK is speaking to Tajik Govt to see if they can pressure Ahmad Massoud to join a future Govt in Afghanistan. (Which means TSP is promising west that Doha agreement will be implemented)…
shyamd wrote: Latest SitRep

- GOI is implementing a strategy & plan on Afghanistan that was created earlier this year. Plan was in process of being updated during collapse.
- GOI will not recognise the Taleb govt but will maintain links via Doha and Moscow.
- Intel assessment is that TSPA will turn up temperature in LoC and J&K very soon... There is a gradual redeployment of terror groups towards LoC (with Afghans being spotted).
- Meet held between PM, Def min, Home min yesterday. Number of options have been proposed by the Nat Sec (Defence is an element of Nat Sec) team with dealing with Afghan situation... Range of issues are being managed including how GOI will secure it's interest (i.e. make sure Afghan soil is not used for terrorism which is the top priority).
- My view: Armed forces (IA/IAF) will be making preparations for deployment to somewhere in central asia in coalition with regional powers (if green light provided). I suspect Brigade level operation with some air cover. Primary task will be border security.

- Not discussed but Tajikistan has made their intent clear - they will defend the interests of the Tajik population in Afghanistan. In August, Tajikistan mobilised 100k troops and called up 100k reserves. Russia is supporting these moves and have also joined in drills and are conducting border patrols/exercises. Volunteers have joined up with the National Resistance in Panjshir (with some state sanction)

Also hearing that ANA aircraft from Tajikistan were used to attack Talib positions today in the main road/valley into Panjshir... Sub-valleys are still being held by NRF.

- Russia also calling for inclusive govt similar to UK/US. Ultimately they want someone in charge of Afghanistan and to make sure there is no terror impacting the Central Asian states
- NSA level meeting between India - Russia to be held today to discuss Afghanistan
- Russia will be conducting military drills in all states sharing border with Afghanistan. India may be joining.

Other side matters:
- There is growing feeling in some quarters in Delhi that British intel and ISI were in cahoots on trying to get DC to recognise Taleban..
shyamd wrote:Intel assessment on Afghanistan

- there is a coalition of countries with shared interests (US, UK, India, Russia, central Asian states and China) with respect to terror emanating from Afghanistan that are cooperating.
- meetings taking place more regularly.

- inclusive Govt was always going to be a challenge for the taleban. Lot of intel effort was put in to get the Ghani Govt (and previous Govs) to be inclusive… so ppl were always aware that Taleban will struggle to do this.
- intel guys are very clear that this is a blow to ops… there is no substitute to being on the ground

Delhi is viewing the current situation as a national security crisis.

TSPA are thrilled and celebrating with current situation. Lots of boasting in the region.
I’m told ordinary folks are fearful… many are moving family to Peshawar/TSP or elsewhere. General brain drain.

Couple of points to add. TSPA is shifting resources to Indo-TSP border as well.

The major concern is the economic situation as aid runs out... Taleban will be forced to increase drug production + be at the mercy of financial sponsors... India will face some of the issues.

MEA thinks we should continue infra assistance after 3 months to change Taleban policy....

West is focused on cyber & drones strikes for now.
Update:
The diplomatic position of Russia, India and others is that if Afghan soil is used to launch terror attacks - ISI/TSPA will be held responsible as they now own the problem of Afghanistan. This has been communicated to TSPA via multiple emissaries.

Like GOI, Russia does not trust ISI/TSPA/Taleban et al and will seek to ensure Afghanistan isn't used to push terrorists into the region.

Added later: I am told TSPAF fighter jets, helicopters, drones and SSG were involved in a night time raid of Panjshir valley. The silence of everyone incl. GOI means there is some understanding of some sorts...
Last edited by shyamd on 09 Sep 2021 20:01, edited 1 time in total.
RajaRudra
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by RajaRudra »

Only hard force matters.

1) There is no use giving a reminder to Pakistan after any/a terror attack(in any country) - They will just laugh at receiving this reminder.
2) Who knows, if we had the control of GB, We would not be having the afghan issues(at least to this extent).
3) We should not have let the Pakistan have the nukes. But we had let it happen.
4) One day or another, a decisive India - Pakistan war has to happen. The early the better. If the Kargil would have been made to be decisive and final we would not be having the upcoming nuclear war(They lied about having the nuke that time).
5) If the civilization has to continue, we have to decide the time and do the needful decisive action on the western border NOW.
6) We should throw out fancy thoughts like "human rights", "big heart" etc. When ever the International situation concentrate on some other high risk issue, we should pound on Pak and digest it. This country was divided by European for their dominance and so they can take all the refugee from the current pak landmass in that war.
nam
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by nam »

Expecting Pak to control affairs in Afghanistan is fool's paradise. Nobody will know if certain things are happening in Afghanistan due to PA or some group are doing on their own. Needless to say Pak will claim "victim of terror" and deny any links. If anyone will seriously punish Pak for any trouble from Astan, we wouldn't been screaming for decades about the yahoos created by PA.

it is not as if Russia is going to start firing cruise missiles in Pak, if some yahoos from Astan attack Russian interests.

The cavemen would also love to spread their "faith" across the other stans. Every trouble maker in the world would find a place in Astan. The lot are more delusional than PA. Last time there was a buffer zone.. now the yahoos are right up to the Northern border.

This is what must have caused headache in Kermlin. Yahoos coming to the Northern border.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Dilbu »

shyamd wrote:The diplomatic position of Russia, India and others is that if Afghan soil is used to launch terror attacks - ISI/TSPA will be held responsible as they now own the problem of Afghanistan. This has been communicated to TSPA via multiple emissaries.
Looks like a page out of the dossier MMS would send.
RKumar

Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by RKumar »

Another rub for the American's ... cavemen to form the govt on 11-Sept-2021, exactly 20 years later the attacks on the USA soil. What a beating for the USA? It was unimaginable a month back :eek:
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Anujan »

ldev wrote:
Y I Patel wrote:

Loud message coming from ORF (Samewr Saran) and Sushant Sareen: if US wants India’s continued help against China in the IndiPacific, then US must help India confront China-Pak in Afg and CA. Either US is a partner everywhere, or it will not be a partner anywhere. So no longer about India helping or supporting US. Equal partnership or nothing.
There was an interesting article a week or so ago in the South China Morning Post of all places about the Afghanistan debacle. It recounted a story by a retired Indian diplomat who used to interact with the US on Afghanistan issues in the early 2000s, shortly after the US entered Afghanistan. Whenever he advised the US that to truly defeat the Taliban you have to begin in Pakistan, according to him the US response was, "the Indians are whining again". I guess it has turned a full circle now with the CIA Director in Delhi probably asking for ground intelligence, the US has pulled out all it's assets, I am sure India still has sources on ground in Afghanistan. Plus I am sure that Ayni is on the cards.

Talking of the US helping India vs China-Pak in Afghanistan and CA, taking on POK from the east and the Wakkhan Corridor from Tajikstan will sever the link between China and Pakistan. It will benefit both India and the US, by cutting off Chinese communications with Pakistan for India and by stopping/ containing Chinese expansion towards the Gulf for the US.
The IC 814 hijack with ISI and telibunny help was largely ignored by the US "Third world country with 2 billion living on less than 0.50$ a day, with nuclear flashpoint in Cashmere, equal==equal whining". Except when the same modus operandi was repeated in 9/11 by the same set of people.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Ambar »

I was watching 'Turning Point - 9/11 and the war on terror' on Netflix over the weekend and one thing which caught my attention is how well this taliban v2 leadership have cleaned up . Not only are they very PR savvy with crisp clean clothes, bottled water, smartphones, fancy fountain pens etc. but they are also very very cocky. With US making the grave mistake of cutting a deal with these barbarians, the taliban really think they are a serious world power now. I found a particular comment made by a senior taliban leader by name Jalaluddin Shinwari very interesting, he said "the US negotiators called the taliban very strong and we think the US is very strong, so together we will fly over great spaces !". While i think an eventual civil war in Afghanistan is a given, it is a matter of time before US and Europe recognizes the taliban government. They may also use taliban to needle Russia, Iran and even China in future, i think this is the reason why the former 2 have changed their tune over the last couple of weeks.

I recommend the above documentary for those with Netflix subscription. It also gives a window into the current american mindset , the political and ideological division and a completely muddled strategic goals. Ironically I felt the documentary itself is a microcosm of the US in 2021 because instead of probing radical islam, the incompetence in pentagon and befuddling decisions made by the US state dept, the producers take a sympathetic view of the taliban, its perspective and end the film with a quote from quran narrated by the notorious muslim brotherhood preacher Imam Faisal Abdul Rauf who once attempted to build a islamic center and mosque next to WTC.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by V_Raman »

Pak to needle India and Taliban to needle Iran/Russia/China - USA has attained its 72
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by kit »

shyamd wrote:Just wanted to share a timeline/thread
shyamd wrote:
- There is growing feeling in some quarters in Delhi that British intel and ISI were in cahoots on trying to get DC to recognise Taleban..
shyamd wrote:Intel assessment on Afghanistan

- there is a coalition of countries with shared ??interests (US, UK, India, Russia, central Asian states and China) with respect to terror emanating from Afghanistan that are cooperating.
- meetings taking place more regularly.


Delhi is viewing the current situation as a national security crisis.

MEA thinks we should continue infra-assistance after 3 months to change Taleban policy....really..can the crow change color ?
West is focused on cyber & drones strikes for now (who cares about them) .
Update:
The silence of everyone incl. GOI means there is "some" :mrgreen: understanding of some sorts...
Remember this., its the MI6 more than the CIA who wants India to recognise the Taliban ., India will not and must not recognise them , the britshits are always the ones who make these issues slyly.the entire west Asian political issues and the central asian issues has been because of them
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by kit »

Dilbu wrote:
shyamd wrote:The diplomatic position of Russia, India and others is that if Afghan soil is used to launch terror attacks - ISI/TSPA will be held responsible as they now own the problem of Afghanistan. This has been communicated to TSPA via multiple emissaries.
Looks like a page out of the dossier MMS would send.
Well their benefactor is the master of the "art of denial" and what to do when some one calls you a thief .. turn to their sworn enemy or plant a couple of bombs in one of their cities.. it would be a redux of plane hijacks/bombings/terror attacks..ask for money or material then to supposedly hunt for the alleged perpetruators etc etc ..all while denying anything to do with it..How can anyone with a sane mind believe any of this., these cavemen only want religion ., no education no nothing.. maybe India can pay some of them to carry out bombings inside paki land , thats the only aid they are gonna get
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Cain Marko »

All this chit chat.. And dossier giri is of no use. India has to setup new default protocol - Any provocation means IAF will overfly GB and bomb into AFPAK as needed.. khullam khulla. Dekha Jayega joh hoga. My guess.. Intl community, bunnies all will accept this without any back talk. Wonlee Chinese and Munna will whine.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by shyamd »

shyamd wrote: - My view: Armed forces (IA/IAF) will be making preparations for deployment to somewhere in central asia in coalition with regional powers (if green light provided). I suspect Brigade level operation with some air cover. Primary task will be border security.
Some confirmation today of what is being considered...
Troops of Moscow-led security bloc may be sent to Tajikistan — Belarus’ Security Council
This opinion was expressed by chief of Belarus’ Security Council Alexander Volfovich in an article published in the SB. Belarus Today newspaper on Thursday.

He emphasized that the events in Afghanistan may lead to an increase in transnational challenges and threats. "The further escalation and the unpredictability of the situation do not exclude, among others, making a decision to deploy the military contingents of the Organization’s member states on the territory of Tajikistan in order to protect the Tajik-Afghan border as part of the Rapid Deployment Collective Forces of the Central Asian Region and the CSTO Collective Rapid Reaction Forces," he noted.

According to the official, it is necessary to "undertake additional efforts on bolstering diplomatic and military-political relations within the framework of the Union State, the CSTO, the SCO, as well as in a bilateral format with other foreign partners."
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by krisna »



2 million views.

palki going great recently. several of her shows are huge hits
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by rsingh »

NSAs of US, UK and Russia making bee line to Delhi. What's the Emergency?

#Bakistani role in Panjsher. How to punish a begger.

# Some kind of Joint military response? Finishing off Yalibani leadership in one blow. This is not far fetched idea. People are in revolt mode and once leadership is gone....aam street gundas will be cornered.

#Making Bakistan NUKE NUDE. That is very likely. I assume we have solid knowledge about Baki nukes whereabouts. Risk of nukes falling in Talbani hand is very high. Even Bakistani may give them as there are many Talibanis in Army uniforms.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by krisna »

Ambar
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Ambar »

rsingh wrote:NSAs of US, UK and Russia making bee line to Delhi. What's the Emergency?

#Bakistani role in Panjsher. How to punish a begger.

# Some kind of Joint military response? Finishing off Yalibani leadership in one blow. This is not far fetched idea. People are in revolt mode and once leadership is gone....aam street gundas will be cornered.

#Making Bakistan NUKE NUDE. That is very likely. I assume we have solid knowledge about Baki nukes whereabouts. Risk of nukes falling in Talbani hand is very high. Even Bakistani may give them as there are many Talibanis in Army uniforms.
"Punish Pakistan" ? :rotfl: Britain’s Gen Nick Carter, Chief of the Defence Staff, claimed that the Taliban are honorable “country boys” who “want an Afghanistan that is inclusive for all”. US NSC spokie Emily Horne said today that the US administration is "eternally grateful" to the Taliban for being “businesslike and professional.”

Make no mistakes about it, far from punishing taliban and its benefactors in pakistan, US and its cronies in Europe will recognize taliban and begin a massive aid program now that China has made the first move. Taliban will be used against Iran, Russia and China. The Russian NSA's visit to Delhi was no fluke and neither is Russia's decision to create a unified air defense for the former soviet stans and the military exercise they held with Tajikistan few weeks ago.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by rsingh »

Amber ji,West is putting fake face to digest the blunder. Plus they have still some people left on ground. Those people who are making foot in mouth statement will just sorry and it is OK. But NSA of country knows the real situation. I think it is not the case of fait accompli. Not yet.there are things to come. JMT
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by rsingh »

EU is led by Germany and France. Assertive Germany is hurt by US action. We will see some changes. That is for Europe says UK.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by chetak »

press release issued by @AfghanistanInIN

This is the old govt of afghanistan


Image
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Pratyush »

In Panjshir, Taliban has vandalised the tomb of Ahmad Shah Massoud.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by g.sarkar »

There are reports just coming in that Amrullah Saleh's brother Rohullah Saleh has been killed in Panjshir. I am waiting for more news in this topic.
Gautam
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Pratyush »

The Taliban has also moved to block bank accounts of previous government employees. So they are quite clear about what they are going to do.

This is going to be a good old fashioned bloodbath. The stupidity of Taliban will make sure that they will now generate a great deal of resentment in the rest of the population.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Rakesh »

What an American debacle this is....

https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/ ... 10113?s=20 ---> The humiliation of having the Taliban inaugurate a government on 9/11, twenty years later to the day, full of the FBI’s most wanted list is hard to overestimate.
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