Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

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chetak
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by chetak »

raghu raman is a congi supporter backed by white vesti, sri sri mundu maharaj


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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.thequint.com/news/world/tal ... #read-more
Taliban Executes Brother of Former Afghan Vice-Prez Amrullah Saleh: Reports
Various reports, doing the rounds of the internet, also say that he was tortured to his death.
The Quint, 10 Sep 2021

Former Afghanistan Vice-President Amrullah Saleh’s brother Rohullah Azizi has been killed by the Taliban, reported Reuters, citing his nephew on Friday, 10 September.
This comes days after the Taliban forces took control of Panjshir.
Azizi’s nephew Ebadullah Saleh told Reuters in a message that following his uncle’s execution on Thursday, the Taliban did not let them bury him. "They executed my uncle… They killed him yesterday and would not let us bury him. They kept saying his body should rot." Ebadullah Saleh to Reuters. Meanwhile, Reuters cited the Urdu language account of the Taliban information service Alemarah as claiming that "according to reports" Rohullah Saleh was killed during fighting in Panjshir. Various reports doing the rounds of the internet also say that he was tortured to death.
.....
Gautam
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by chetak »

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by shyamd »

shyamd wrote:
shyamd wrote: - My view: Armed forces (IA/IAF) will be making preparations for deployment to somewhere in central asia in coalition with regional powers (if green light provided). I suspect Brigade level operation with some air cover. Primary task will be border security.
Some confirmation today of what is being considered...
Troops of Moscow-led security bloc may be sent to Tajikistan — Belarus’ Security Council
This opinion was expressed by chief of Belarus’ Security Council Alexander Volfovich in an article published in the SB. Belarus Today newspaper on Thursday.

He emphasized that the events in Afghanistan may lead to an increase in transnational challenges and threats. "The further escalation and the unpredictability of the situation do not exclude, among others, making a decision to deploy the military contingents of the Organization’s member states on the territory of Tajikistan in order to protect the Tajik-Afghan border as part of the Rapid Deployment Collective Forces of the Central Asian Region and the CSTO Collective Rapid Reaction Forces," he noted.

According to the official, it is necessary to "undertake additional efforts on bolstering diplomatic and military-political relations within the framework of the Union State, the CSTO, the SCO, as well as in a bilateral format with other foreign partners."
Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 80229?s=20 ---> Iran, Russia and India will hold a joint conference on the significance of a corridor between Nhava Sheva Port in India, Chabahar and Anzali ports in Iran and the Russian port of Astrakhan: Senior Iranian official.
Iran is expected to join the SCO in the formal meeting on 15-16 Sept.

Intelligence chiefs of Pak, China, Russia, Iran, and other countries hold talks on AfghanistanIntelligence chiefs of Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan met in Islamabad to discuss the situation in Afghanistan.

The discussion is being held by Pakistan's director-general of Inter-Services Intelligence Lt. General Faiz Hameed, according to reports.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by kit »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tali ... -tscr35dcj
Taliban death squads have hunted down and killed at least four elite Afghan counterterrorism agents in the past three weeks, in one case pulling out all the victim’s fingernails before shooting him.

All four men were member of Units 011 and 041, British and American-trained units responsible for finding and interrogating Taliban, and based at the headquarters of the Afghan intelligence service, the National Directorate of Security (NDS).
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by g.sarkar »

Another time, another war, but still very interesting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uT819zsTfAc
The Graveyard of Empires Strikes Back - The British-Afghan War of 1919 I THE GREAT WAR 1919
Gautam
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ldev »

shyamd wrote:
Intelligence chiefs of Pak, China, Russia, Iran, and other countries hold talks on AfghanistanIntelligence chiefs of Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan met in Islamabad to discuss the situation in Afghanistan.

The discussion is being held by Pakistan's director-general of Inter-Services Intelligence Lt. General Faiz Hameed, according to reports.
Part of the discussion would certainly be a pitch from the ISI to Russia and Tajikistan that Pakistan guarantees that there will be no Taliban or other extremist group spillover into Central Asia but in return Russia and Tajikistan should guarantee that foreign forces i.e. Indian or other forces cannot use these Central Asian countries as bases to launch attacks on Afghanistan i.e. Pakistan is trying to make a separate peace with Russia and the Central Asian states. Also quite remarkable how quickly Qatar and Turkey have been pushed out of the power equation in terms of the reality of who has influence on the ground in Afghanistan. Qatar will henceforth be needed only for the cash that they can provide but even there Pakistan is likely counting on China as a backup.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Y I Patel »

Vikram Sood with the absolute last word on how any self respecting country should deal with the Taliban:
Ultimately governments engage governments. First you have to decide whether this is a legitimate government. Can terrorism lead to legitimate governments? Are we there for giving terrorism legitimacy? That this is a legitimate means of acquiring power. Just because we want to deal with you? And we want to deal with you for what? What is it that Afghanistan will give us that I must be desperate to deal with them? There may be a possibility of threat, but that does not mean I should be recognising the Taliban. They have said they are going to defend all Muslims everywhere, including Kashmir. So why should I deal with them,” Sood said.
India shouldn’t be desperate to recognise Taliban unless they give us deal on terror
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by kit »

So the back story behind the CIA , MI6 chiefs and Russian NSA making a beeline to India !.. the real story behind the headlines and the *shadowy Superpower* (one who is not to be named :(( ) flexing its muscles

NB : And also why Russia is now singing a different song :mrgreen:



So sometime past

"Rapid progress
With Pakistan’s Special Forces leading the fighting against the NRF, the Taliban began making significant gains, capturing multiple towns inside the valley proper. They even claimed to have captured Panjshir in its entirety, a claim that was rebuffed by the NRF. Following in Ahmad Shah Massoud’s footsteps, the NRF appears to be avoiding open battle and is retreating into the numerous side valleys of Panjshir.

Given Saleh’s history with the ISI, it is no surprise that Pakistani Special Forces are gunning for his head. But they appear to have made little headway, and might have even been lured into an ambush."

"Despite claims and counter-claims, the tide of battle appeared to have turned conclusively in favour of the Taliban+ forces. They captured and desecrated Ahmad Shah Massoud’s tomb inside Panjshir on his 20th death anniversary."

And then !

"Unidentified aircraft
Then something unexpected happened.

Unidentified aircraft flew in from the north and carried out airstrikes on Taliban positions in Panjshir."

Speculation was rife that the aircraft belonged to the erstwhile Afghan Army that had fled to Tajikistan. The Afghans would have had to surmount a significant logistical challenge to secure fuel, weapons, and crew in a third country for the assault. They would also have had to coordinate with the NRF to fly the mission, but all that isn’t impossible.

But then reports began trickling in that a number of Pakistani soldiers had been slaughtered in the air assault. The aircraft appeared to have targeted Pakistani positions.

This was happenstance.

On a completely unrelated note, Ayni in Tajikistan, near the capital Dushanbe, hosts an air base that is jointly operated by the Indian Air Force and the Tajik Air Force. India is rumoured to have stationed a sub-squadron strength detachment of Su-30MKI aircraft there since 2014.

Ayni is roughly 360 km from Panjshir, and the Sukhois have stand-off weapons that can be fired from more than 100 km away.

Image

But if Sukhois were to target Pakistani troops using stand-off munitions, they would require precise intelligence about Pakistani troop positions from within the Panjshir valley. Intelligence of the sort that the former head of the NDS — who happens to have collaborated with India’s intelligence agencies — might be able to provide, for example.

This was a coincidence, of course.

"Right around the time when the airstrikes took place on Pakistani troops, resulting in heavy casualties among their elite SSG, Lt Gen Hameed was summoned back to Rawalpindi in Pakistan. He was marched into the Adjutant General Lt Gen Muhammad Amir’s office and disciplined for his unauthorised visit to Kabul, a humiliating ordeal for a three-star general.

The Adjutant General (AG), Lt General Muhammad Amir, had issued a letter to the DG ISI and asked him to appear before the AG to explain his violation of military disciple. When Lt General Faiz Hameed arrived to attend the hearing at the GHQ (September 10), he was thoroughly humiliated. He was marched into the AG’s office, which means he was cautioned at the door and the ISI flag was stripped of his motor vehicle before it was allowed to enter the GHQ premises.

Lt Gen Hameed accepted the charges and sought pardon from Gen Bajwa
."

This is also a coincidence.

https://espionage.substack.com/p/the-panjshir-protocol
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by chetak »

Afghan Air Force pilots and their families, who fled to Uzbekistan, are being transferred to Doha this weekend.

But will Biden agree to the transfer of 46 aircraft from Uzbekistan to Taliban, as demanded by Taliban?

If he does, his complicity with Taliban will be out in the open.
via@Chellaney ·11 Sep
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by surinder »

Cyrano wrote:Gen Bakshi in his inemitable style. Note the pakis comment bombing from pure donkey farms below the video !


The revelations in this video are sensational: Mullah Baradar was sodomized in the prison. He would hold that against the TSP.

What is that article / statement by some Clark is he referring to (at around time stamp of 15-20 min)?
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Maria »

surinder wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Gen Bakshi in his inemitable style. Note the pakis comment bombing from pure donkey farms below the video !


The revelations in this video are sensational: Mullah Baradar was sodomized in the prison. He would hold that against the TSP.

What is that article / statement by some Clark is he referring to (at around time stamp of 15-20 min)?
How would one know if the sodomy was indeed not voluntary and consensual? The curious case of Bulbuddin comes to mind, from the Super Powa city of Krachi.

On a serious note, let's just say the IAF flew combat missions against the Taliban in support of the NRF, would the Tajiks have allowed the Su-30s to be armed to the teeth? If this did happen - we must have had the blessings of the bear above.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by sidp »

NRF twitter handle is claiming that Baradar was most probably mortally wounded by Haqqani group imembers in a physical browl
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by IndraD »

he has surfaced and also released an audio tape
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Ambar »

kit wrote:So the back story behind the CIA , MI6 chiefs and Russian NSA making a beeline to India !.. the real story behind the headlines and the *shadowy Superpower* (one who is not to be named :(( ) flexing its muscles

NB : And also why Russia is now singing a different song :mrgreen:



So sometime past


https://espionage.substack.com/p/the-panjshir-protocol
I find it hard to believe not only because the logistics of such a operation will be very difficult but also if IAF did bomb paki/taliban positions, the western media and the pakis would have gone to town complaining about "India destabilizing Afghanistan". The other angle to remember is US wouldn't want India to upset the taliban atleast not until they have fully evacuated remaining people out of Kabul.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Ambar »

The United Nations opened a high-level donors conference Monday with the call for the world to urgently send $600 million to help fund the Taliban’s self-declared Islamic Caliphate of Afghanistan over the next three months. Again, stories like the one above are rather hard to believe when US, EU and UN are desperately trying to legitimize the taliban government and ensure they are not short on cash or weapons anytime soon.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ldev »

Putin will be physically present for the SCO and CSTO summits in Dushanbe this week. India is represented by EAM Jaishankar. Jaishankar will have a bilateral with the new Iranian Foreign Minister ,Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. There are reports that Imran Khan who has been invited will have a first ever bilateral meeting with Putin on September 16 on the sidelines. PM Modi will attend virtually.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by kit »

Ambar wrote:
kit wrote:So the back story behind the CIA , MI6 chiefs and Russian NSA making a beeline to India !.. the real story behind the headlines and the *shadowy Superpower* (one who is not to be named :(( ) flexing its muscles

NB : And also why Russia is now singing a different song :mrgreen:



So sometime past


https://espionage.substack.com/p/the-panjshir-protocol
I find it hard to believe not only because the logistics of such a operation will be very difficult but also if IAF did bomb paki/taliban positions, the western media and the pakis would have gone to town complaining about "India destabilizing Afghanistan". The other angle to remember is US wouldn't want India to upset the taliban atleast not until they have fully evacuated remaining people out of Kabul.
Would the pakis complain ? ..That would be like confirming to the entire world they are behind the whole show in AF !! India played its card right knowing well that the Pakis would never in their right mind accept their losses. Geopolitics is all a big chess board , knowing when to strike when they least expect it !

Coming to the second Amerikis not wanting to upset the applecart., what do you think the CIA and MI6 chiefs were doing in Delhi with absolutely no press conference and not a bleep in the media ? They were not there for chai biscoot !!

And something you didnt ask., there is a massed Russian Azeri force deployed right on AF borders ! .. this one where the Russian NSA came and discussed, went right to the very top ( Putin) with some political and military "corrections"
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by rsingh »

surinder wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Gen Bakshi in his inemitable style. Note the pakis comment bombing from pure donkey farms below the video !


The revelations in this video are sensational: Mullah Baradar was sodomized in the prison. He would hold that against the TSP.

What is that article / statement by some Clark is he referring to (at around time stamp of 15-20 min)?
Such methods are used by Intelligence agencies to keep tab on hard core terrorist it was perfected by KGB and was ver successful. This allows subject to be blackmailed at any time. Salam
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Ambar »

We can only speculate what the CIA / MI6 / Russian NSA's meetings were about. That said if Pakis did take a huge hit then they could still hide their losses and yet cry coarse about Hindu India bombing Islamic Afghanistan. Moreover, if India had bombed taliban position, i would have expected the taliban in Kabul to make anti-India statements which they haven't so far (except for one predictable line about Kashmir).

Russia conducted military exercise earlier in August with stans, they have also announced the ratification of joint air defense earlier this month. Russia realizes that an emboldened taliban may cause problems in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan .
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Cyrano »

Why isn't the OIC not doing anything to support people of its Ummah I wonder. May be because they can better recognise a snake when they see it and don't want to feed it ?
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by chetak »

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by chetak »

Cyrano wrote:Why isn't the OIC not doing anything to support people of its Ummah I wonder. May be because they can better recognise a snake when they see it and don't want to feed it ?
sooperpowers tend to have very long memories.

When one is hell bent on going to hell in a handbasket, it's best to get out of their way
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by chetak »

@ANI.1h
We're deeply engaged with India across the board. With regard to any specifics about over the horizon capabilities & plans we put in place, it'll continue to be put in place: US Secy of State on 'if US has reached out to India as possible staging area for over the horizon forces'
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Y I Patel »

Y I Patel wrote:
...

So something major is cooking. My guess:

America badly needs “over the horizon” capability to monitor developments if AfPak. Tajikistan bases can be an excellent launching pad, and India an operator acceptable to both US and Russia. Not to mention a long standing friend of Tajiks and acceptable to Iran under current circumstances.

...
Today - Sec State Blinken response at a congressional hearing on Afg, as reported in TOI:

US in touch with India regarding 'over-the-horizon' support

Added later - Chetak you beat me to it!
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by sanjaykumar »

Moodi can partner with the US if any Indian politician can.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by rsingh »

One wonder why mullah birader is releasing only only audio and not video. Hein hi. I am sure every mullah is equipped with I phone.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.thestatesman.com/opinion/pa ... 06796.html
Pakistan forced to sustain an isolated Afghanistan
Harsha Kakar, NEW DELHI, September 13, 2021

In the joint press conference with the Dutch Foreign Minister, Sigrid Kaag, early this month, Pakistan’s foreign minister, SM Qureshi, cautioned the world against abandoning Kabul. He emphasised that the world needed to be conscious of the humanitarian requirements of Afghanistan and the need to prevent an economic collapse. In a phone conversation with the Austrian Foreign minister, Qureshi similarly requested the international community to address Afghanistan’s humanitarian and economic needs.
In his interaction with the German foreign minister, Heiko Maas, Qureshi mentioned, “The international community must remain engaged. Humanitarian assistance must flow. Do not let the economic collapse in Afghanistan take place.” Last week, hosting a virtual meet of foreign ministers of countries bordering Afghanistan, Qureshi mentioned, “In the wake of recent developments, the key priorities are to prevent a humanitarian crisis and to take steps to prevent economic meltdown.”
Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, while addressing his corps commanders stated, “constructive engagement and sustained humanitarian support for Afghanistan by the world community is imperative for enduring peace and stability.” Pakistan’s DG ISI, the man who orchestrated formation of the government in Kabul, held a meeting of his counterparts from countries in the region, to seek similar support for Afghanistan. Sheikh Rashid, Pakistan’s interior minister, stated in a press conference on Sunday, “freezing of Afghan accounts could create a humanitarian crisis.”
The UN Secretary General, António Guterres, expressed his concern at the deepening humanitarian and economic crisis as also possible collapse of basic services in Afghanistan. The UN stated that global funding for Afghanistan was not forthcoming. The international community has ignored Afghanistan unlike the global response to other humanitarian crises. Pakistan, in a display of solidarity, sent three planeloads of relief to Afghanistan; however, reports indicate these were photo-ops with limited aid. China sanctioned $31 million as assistance, which would come with riders attached.
All Pakistani political and military entities are singing the same tune of global economic and humanitarian support to Afghanistan. The major reason is because Afghanistan has become Pakistan’s responsibility, solely because Pakistan created an Afghan government contrary to global demands while lacking resources to support it.
When the world was demanding an inclusive government in Kabul, with emphasis on the condition of women and children in return for financial and humanitarian support, Pakistan was creating a government dominated by pro-Pak elements, UNSC proscribed terrorists and hardliners. The current dispensation in Kabul includes 30 Pashtuns, two Tajiks and one Uzbek, of whom 17 are UNSC proscribed terrorists. Its powerful interior minister is the pro-Pakistan Sirajuddin Haqqani, who carries a $10 million bounty on his head.
.....
Gautam
The world has a moral duty to aid Afghanistan. And that aid can only flow through Pakistan. AOA.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by kit »

*deleted
Last edited by kit on 14 Sep 2021 12:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Cain Marko »

Y I Patel wrote:
Y I Patel wrote: So something major is cooking. My guess:

America badly needs “over the horizon” capability to monitor developments if AfPak. Tajikistan bases can be an excellent launching pad, and India an operator acceptable to both US and Russia. Not to mention a long standing friend of Tajiks and acceptable to Iran under current circumstances.

...
Today - Sec State Blinken response at a congressional hearing on Afg, as reported in TOI:

US in touch with India regarding 'over-the-horizon' support

Added later - Chetak you beat me to it!
Can you or someone please explain to this mango Abdul what this over the horizon capability means and how India can provide it? Can India conduct strikes flying over GB? Or do they hope for basing facilities in places like leh and Srinagar to conduct strikes via GB, and PoK?
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by shyamd »

Good call LDev. Apparently TSPA has a deal with the West to sort out the Taleban Govt in 1 year I.e. make it inclusive etc. The rationale is that the Bonn process didn’t create an inclusive Govt initially

ISI chief told his counterparts in Iran, Russia etc that let’s focus on stability of Afghanistan. China won’t invest a cent without stability. There are long standing plans to build pipelines from Kuwait, Iran all the way to China via Afghanistan.

Not sure if TAPI will get reinvigorated again.. but these will take time.

ISI chief told them the most strategic move against terror is to create stability, jobs in Afghanistan. Of course veiled threats if India enters the region that the instability will spread to Central Asia.

Bottom line: none of the Neighbor's trust TSPA so they’ll all be trying to build capacity to ensure that instability doesn’t spread to their region and Afghanistan isn’t used for terror.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Deans »

Cain Marko wrote:
Y I Patel wrote:
Today - Sec State Blinken response at a congressional hearing on Afg, as reported in TOI:

US in touch with India regarding 'over-the-horizon' support

Added later - Chetak you beat me to it!
Can you or someone please explain to this mango Abdul what this over the horizon capability means and how India can provide it? Can India conduct strikes flying over GB? Or do they hope for basing facilities in places like leh and Srinagar to conduct strikes via GB, and PoK?
We can't offer anything practical in `over the horizon' military support. Drones based in India do not have the range to reach and loiter in Afghanistan. Besides Pak will not allow their airspace to be used for that. Violating their airspace to carry out a strike is an act of war. Do we want that, when no other country is willing to take that risk ? We might do it in Balakot as a one off, but not to knock off some unwashed Abduls in a tent in Afghanistan - which US can also do from a Carrier, or long range bomber.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by williams »

The best place to conduct such support is from Tajikistan. We could do it if whole lot of countries other than Pakis allow their airspace and we need serious money to run such sustained operation. I don't think GoI is in any mood to do it.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by kit »

I think US is looking at basing their drones in India., but i take all this OTH capability with India with a bucket of salt. The US has enough resources nearby and if needed station a carrier group in the Arabian sea for that.
Frankly I would keep the Americans as far away as possible
I feel this is a sly way for unkle to monitor Indian movements minutely and reduce its cooperation with the Russians
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Pratyush »

https://theprint.in/world/us-to-look-at ... ew/733000/

Would have been more useful if this was done in 2004-5
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by rsingh »

Me think India will be ready to provide over the horizon capability if POK is the gift. Bakistani will be talked into vacationing POk.GOI will be happy to do so. Bakistan get one time waver for all foreign debts and a small amount in the form of Zazia is paid by Americans. Arabs are already providing free oil. Bakistan is brought under security umbrella in exchange of nuclear weapons . Everybody happy. Modi ji , india has nothing to loose. NIAZI will be hero providing food to the country.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by shyamd »

Just wanted to share a timeline/thread
shyamd wrote: I think consensus within current TSPA establishment is they regret recognising the previous Taleban govt without support of international powers - bad PR and guilt by association. Especially that Taleban was not inclusive last time - this created its own instability. This time TSPA want there to be inclusive govt (with TSPA at the top to veto anything big .... like GOI involvement)

TSPA has outlined 2 core national interest:
1. Vision for future of Afghanistan (particularly the Durand Line border)
2. Role of India in that region

Previous Afghan govts failed on both counts. Right from the start Afghan govt told then senior TSPA officers that they don't recognise durand line.
Also the US was setting up ANDF ORBAT to focus on Pakistan(!).
Taleban takeover of Afghanistan was a necessity in their eyes. But there is no guarantee that they can control Taleban indefinitely.... Question is what is Taleban position on points 1 and 2 above.

TSPA expectation is that instability in places like FATA, Baluchistan and other places will reduce once Taleb take over is complete
shyamd wrote:
Assessment of Security Situation post Kabul takeover


TSPA priority
- TSPA support Taleban priority firstly will be to consolidate, secure and prevent any forces that can launch a counter coup. Apparently Kabul is not completely secure and the Taleban are still continuing operations.
- Negotiations are taking place between Taleban and forces that are capable of resisting thus the general amnesty for former Afghan govt officials (to complete the coup which means the Taleban/TSPA are still worried about resistance forces)
- The other issues is that TSPA know that there are a lot of groups that are not under direct C2 of TSPA - these will need to be dealt with as well eventually

- Consensus for major powers is that as long as Taleban is truly 'inclusive' then pressure will be taken off Taleban - I believe funds of the Afghan govt have been frozen or about to be frozen
- ISI backed troops such as LeT and JeM are playing a significant role. They have two roles - keep control of Taleban gangs going lose/off the chain and prevent forces that can launch a counter coup.

GOI moves
- First priority is securing all Indian nationals, diplomats and other interests of the Sikh/Hindu community. Majority of the work was completed in 48 hours from the green light given by GOI leaders.
- The next will be to re-establish connections with key players (some of whom are in Delhi) and others in central asian states.
- GOI have a choice. Either support those ready to launch a counter coup and make the point that Taleban hold is weak/vulnerable or move to a long term strategy which is to be recon/surveillance/intel focused.

With only around 9% of indian population vaccinated GOI's primary focus is to get this fixed.

Expectation is that we'll be back to stadium murders soon.
Apparently GOI - Taleban meeting was reported in arab press (the one that MEA denied that took place). Taleban said they welcome Indian investments in infra & education as these are for the benefit of all afghans. They also said the Taliban pledged to remain neutral in the India-Pakistan conflict, especially with regard to Kashmir, and affirmed that it has its own future policy on Pakistan.

They have also pledged not to interfere in Uyghur issues in china.
shyamd wrote: Be careful....maybe ISI want us to think that. From speaking to people I'm getting the sense all dirty business (terror training) will be shipped of to Afghanistan from places like Mansehra and PoK. TSP will follow the international community publicly...i.e. if the powers recognise, they will recognise... if they don't then TSP won't.

The impact will be TSPA will come out of FATF and look clean... they'll say all terror planning/training is happening from "ungoverned places".


Iran has close ties with many in Talebs but they aren't trusted.

UAE has approached Turkey for alliance on Afghan file.
Latest summary is:
- TSPA has sent feelers to London and DC on who may recognise the taleban govt. TSPA want to resolve Afg govt issue quickly because there is concern about refugee inflows
- KSA via former intel director Turki al Faisal is re-establishing contacts with Taleban. This is brokered via ISI. Meetings have been held with Mullah Yaqoob (Mullah omar's son) and other seniors. KSA view is better to have a taleb govt who will be more sympathetic vs Iran.
- I'm reminded that Taleban is a coalition of groups that range from anti TSPA, drug gangs, extremists, nationalists, Pro-Pakhtun ethnic groups, pro -TSP backed terror groups like Haqqani Network, former Afg govt officials... PLA is backing one faction, Iran another - particularly those in border districts with Iran... Russia also involved...(rumour has it ISKP was getting $$ from Russians...)... Sorting out and agreeing powersharing between these groups is proving a little difficult. Each person has earned their seat on table... and each country is having their rep on the table via shura council (incl. Iran)..
- Taleban are being asked to repay debts to these nation states like Russia, Iran, TSP, China who supported them over the years.
- UAE cooperating with Turkey/Qatar alliance on Afghanistan...but it's early days.
- Threat of counter coup has largely reduced..
shyamd wrote: Qatar has been shocked by how different the 'on ground' situation is compared to the promises made in Doha. Qatar, US and others in the region were promised a 'transitional' govt and preparations were seriously underway (hence why the ANA was asked to go slow or withdraw and their C2 had collapsed). The talib mil commanders on the ground ignored all of this and carried on incl. entering Kabul despite all promises by the Talib political leaders not to do so.

It is the military leaders who have the greatest influence over the situation.
Abdul Qayum Zakir (now the defence minister of the Taleb govt. He is the leader of Badri 313 ), Mullah Yaqoob (Mullah Omar's son and leader of the military movement) and Haqqani Network (ISI backed) are the key players in control of the situation. Apparently the military leaders are not cooperating with the political members like Stanekzai and others.

----------------------------
GOI stating that once a permanent govt is formed towards year end, they will talk to that Talib govt..
Apparently HQN faction is dominating Kabul (Jalalabad - Kabul axis). Mullah Yaqoob has Kandahar area. Not sure if its psyops but they are saying Yaqoob and Haqqani are not cooperating wrt political settlement. Haqqani wants inclusivity with previous govt but Yaqoob not interested.

UK Foreign Min met TSP/A to discuss Afg. UK and US answer is that what was promised in Doha was not delivered and therefore we are far away from recognizing Taleban Govt.

Not sure if it’s true but ISI chief in Kabul today probably to attempt to sort things out
Latest I’m hearing is that UK is speaking to Tajik Govt to see if they can pressure Ahmad Massoud to join a future Govt in Afghanistan. (Which means TSP is promising west that Doha agreement will be implemented)…
shyamd wrote: Latest SitRep

- GOI is implementing a strategy & plan on Afghanistan that was created earlier this year. Plan was in process of being updated during collapse.
- GOI will not recognise the Taleb govt but will maintain links via Doha and Moscow.
- Intel assessment is that TSPA will turn up temperature in LoC and J&K very soon... There is a gradual redeployment of terror groups towards LoC (with Afghans being spotted).
- Meet held between PM, Def min, Home min yesterday. Number of options have been proposed by the Nat Sec (Defence is an element of Nat Sec) team with dealing with Afghan situation... Range of issues are being managed including how GOI will secure it's interest (i.e. make sure Afghan soil is not used for terrorism which is the top priority).
- My view: Armed forces (IA/IAF) will be making preparations for deployment to somewhere in central asia in coalition with regional powers (if green light provided). I suspect Brigade level operation with some air cover. Primary task will be border security.

- Not discussed but Tajikistan has made their intent clear - they will defend the interests of the Tajik population in Afghanistan. In August, Tajikistan mobilised 100k troops and called up 100k reserves. Russia is supporting these moves and have also joined in drills and are conducting border patrols/exercises. Volunteers have joined up with the National Resistance in Panjshir (with some state sanction)

Also hearing that ANA aircraft from Tajikistan were used to attack Talib positions today in the main road/valley into Panjshir... Sub-valleys are still being held by NRF.

- Russia also calling for inclusive govt similar to UK/US. Ultimately they want someone in charge of Afghanistan and to make sure there is no terror impacting the Central Asian states
- NSA level meeting between India - Russia to be held today to discuss Afghanistan
- Russia will be conducting military drills in all states sharing border with Afghanistan. India may be joining.

Other side matters:
- There is growing feeling in some quarters in Delhi that British intel and ISI were in cahoots on trying to get DC to recognise Taleban..
shyamd wrote:Intel assessment on Afghanistan

- there is a coalition of countries with shared interests (US, UK, India, Russia, central Asian states and China) with respect to terror emanating from Afghanistan that are cooperating.
- meetings taking place more regularly.

- inclusive Govt was always going to be a challenge for the taleban. Lot of intel effort was put in to get the Ghani Govt (and previous Govs) to be inclusive… so ppl were always aware that Taleban will struggle to do this.
- intel guys are very clear that this is a blow to ops… there is no substitute to being on the ground

Delhi is viewing the current situation as a national security crisis.

TSPA are thrilled and celebrating with current situation. Lots of boasting in the region.
I’m told ordinary folks are fearful… many are moving family to Peshawar/TSP or elsewhere. General brain drain.

Couple of points to add. TSPA is shifting resources to Indo-TSP border as well.

The major concern is the economic situation as aid runs out... Taleban will be forced to increase drug production + be at the mercy of financial sponsors... India will face some of the issues.

MEA thinks we should continue infra assistance after 3 months to change Taleban policy....

West is focused on cyber & drones strikes for now.
Update:
The diplomatic position of Russia, India and others is that if Afghan soil is used to launch terror attacks - ISI/TSPA will be held responsible as they now own the problem of Afghanistan. This has been communicated to TSPA via multiple emissaries.

Like GOI, Russia does not trust ISI/TSPA/Taleban et al and will seek to ensure Afghanistan isn't used to push terrorists into the region.

Added later: I am told TSPAF fighter jets, helicopters, drones and SSG were involved in a night time raid of Panjshir valley. The silence of everyone incl. GOI means there is some understanding of some sorts...
Intel update on ISI chief visit - 14 Sept 21
- ISI chief turned up in Kabul with officials from 8 of their departments.
- the objective of the visit was to:
(a) support the establishment of the interim govt
(b) draw out the plan of the future defence and security services of the new state.

- TSPA wish to create a professional defence and security establishment at Kabul with proper equipment... (most probably chinese gear)
- The intelligence chief is TajMir Javvad. Defence will be led by Abdulhaq Wasiq from Ghazni province.
- The new afghan military doctrine will be closely aligned to TSPA's.
- The force is expected to be a national force with cadre recruited from all ethnic groups in the country.
- 2 objectives for this force is:
(a) border protection
(b) counter terror
- The new force will be equiped by TSPA and will utilise NATO leftovers like helicopters etc.
- ISI chief was keen to integrate Badri 313 into this new establishment and make it the primary Spec Forces unit.

My view is this is similar to how the british ran the empire - let the locals govern themselves but hold control of foreign policy, Defence & security. Appoint a political resident to monitor the politics..

---------------------------------
Iranian FM expected to meet EAM in Dushanbe on the sidelines. He was expected to be in Delhi yesterday but they decided to just have the convo in Dushanbe instead. Speculation that EAM will meet TSP FM in Dushanbe.

Saudi delegation to arrive in Delhi this weekend to discuss Af Pak. UAE Crown Prince and PM spoke about Afghanistan last week.
Cain Marko
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Posts: 5350
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Cain Marko »

Besides Pak will not allow their airspace to be used for that. Violating their airspace to carry out a strike is an act of war. Do we want that, when no other country is willing to take that risk ?.
Why not? Why not push the envelope a bit and see what happens? What did anybody do post balakote? Nothing. They just accepted the situation. Let's push a bit more, esp if the US is working to this end. Getting access to that airspace can lead to control of it in time. They'll get used to it.
kit
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Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by kit »

shyamd wrote: ISI chief told his counterparts in Iran, Russia etc that let’s focus on stability of Afghanistan. China won’t invest a cent without stability. There are long standing plans to build pipelines from Kuwait, Iran all the way to China via Afghanistan.
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Forget stability. A taliban governed AF must be kept unstable and keep the bunnies and ISI busy. This is the best way to counter terror.
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