Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

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shyamd
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by shyamd »

One gulf assessment of what is going on... I think this is KSA official
Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will reshape Middle East, official warns
Gulf states are having to reconsider their alliances and especially whether they can still trust the US, says senior source
The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan is a shattering earthquake that will shape the Middle East for many years, a senior Gulf official has said, warning that – despite the group’s promises of moderation – the militant group is “essentially the same” as last time it was in power.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the official also said that the rapid and chaotic US withdrawal also raises serious questions for Gulf states about the value of US promises of security over the next 20 years.

“Afghanistan is an earthquake, a shattering, shattering earthquake, and this is going to stay with us for a very, very long time,” the official said on Monday. He added that the episode marked a complete break with the outdated Carter doctrine – a commitment that an oil-dependent US would use military force to defend its interests in the Gulf.

“Can we really depend on an American security umbrella for the next 20 years? I think this is very problematic right now – really very problematic.”

He suggested that 20 years of warfare, supposed to be “a battle against those who had hijacked Islam”, had left no legacy in Afghanistan, and predicted that the Taliban’s seizure of power would prompt concern among leaders in West Africa and the Sahel about the rise of a newly confident Islamic extremism.
The official added he had no expectation that the Taliban would behave differently from when it was previously in power, saying, “They are essentially the same, but just more world-savvy.”
Afghanistan, he said, will probably come to be seen as a Pakistan victory, and a Chinese opportunity – with the US playing a minimal role. “If there is a geopolitical struggle over Afghanistan, we will see Pakistan and China on one hand and India, Iran and Russia on the other hand,” the official said. “And I don’t think the Americans are going to be a part of the geopolitical struggle over Afghanistan.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by srin »

shyamd wrote:Just wanted to share a timeline/thread

My view is this is similar to how the british ran the empire - let the locals govern themselves but hold control of foreign policy, Defence & security. Appoint a political resident to monitor the politics..
Yes, they have the sterling example of William Macnaghten who played a stellar role in First Anglo Afghan War !

Wonder who they will send ?

I don't think Afghans will like being owned by Bakis either. When the blow is going to fall is the only mystery.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by kit »

The official added he had no expectation that the Taliban would behave differently from when it was previously in power, saying, “They are essentially the same, but just more world-savvy.”
Afghanistan, he said, will probably come to be seen as a Pakistan victory, and a Chinese opportunity – with the US playing a minimal role. “If there is a geopolitical struggle over Afghanistan, we will see Pakistan and China on one hand and India, Iran and Russia on the other hand,” the official said. “And I don’t think the Americans are going to be a part of the geopolitical struggle over Afghanistan.
[/quote]

Precisely , the pakis are trying to draw in china, once that happens..
shyamd
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by shyamd »

srin wrote: Yes, they have the sterling example of William Macnaghten who played a stellar role in First Anglo Afghan War !

Wonder who they will send ?

I don't think Afghans will like being owned by Bakis either. When the blow is going to fall is the only mystery.
This is why in the next few months, probably once the permanent govt is created - GOI is planning to hold talks with the Taleban (At least that's the current thinking).

Drone strikes etc are just tactical moves... strategically GOI will have to build a relationship with them or at least attempt to sway them.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by kit »

shyamd wrote:
srin wrote: Yes, they have the sterling example of William Macnaghten who played a stellar role in First Anglo Afghan War !

Drone strikes etc are just tactical moves... strategically GOI will have to build a relationship with them or at least attempt to sway them.
why ? India has made it clear it needs to be an inclusive government. We know the game plan of ISI supported Taliban., and their agenda.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by shyamd »

They will hold talks with the permanent govt (not the current interim one) assuming that permanent govt is inclusive... But situation is constantly changing.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/14/asia/afg ... index.html
More than $1 billion in aid pledged for Afghanistan as country faces 'most perilous hour'
Helen Regan, September 14, 2021

More than $1 billion in aid has been pledged for Afghanistan to help ease one of the world's "worst humanitarian crises," as millions of people in the country could soon run out of food and the economy is on the verge of collapse, the United Nations said on Monday.
Speaking at a high-level ministers meeting on the crisis in Geneva, UN Secretary General António Guterres said poverty rates in Afghanistan had spiraled since the Taliban's takeover last month, with one in three people not knowing where their next meal was coming from and basic public services not functioning. "The people of Afghanistan need a lifeline. After decades of war, suffering and insecurity, they face perhaps their most perilous hour," Guterres said. The UN had made an emergency appeal for $606 million to meet the most pressing needs in the country, a request that had been "fully met," Guterres said during a news conference.
"Today, we already have clearly more than $ 1 billion of pledges. It is impossible to say how much of these will be for the flash appeal, but in any case, it represents a quantum leap in relation to the financial commitment of the international community towards the Afghan people," he said.
Even before the Taliban's return to power, protracted conflict, poverty, back-to-back droughts, economic decline and the coronavirus pandemic had worsened an already dire situation in which 18 million Afghans -- almost half of the population -- were in need of aid, UN agencies said. More than half of children under five years old are facing acute malnutrition and fighting has forced hundreds of thousands of people from their homes, they added.
.....
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/petraeus-a ... e-takeout/
Petraeus says Afghanistan withdrawal did "damage to our credibility and to our reputation" - "The Takeout"
Kathryn Watson, September 10, 2021

The way the U.S. handled its withdrawal from Afghanistan has done damage to the United States' credibility and reputation abroad, said David Petraeus, former head of the CIA and former commander of U.S. Central Command.
Petraeus, who argued that the U.S. should keep a military presence in Afghanistan, pointed to criticism from the British government and other major European leaders in the wake of the collapse of the Afghan government and Taliban takeover of a country where the U.S. spent two decades.
"There is damage to our credibility and to our reputation," he said in an interview with CBS News chief Washington correspondent Major Garrett for "The Takeout" podcast.
The Biden administration recognizes that, and will need to work very hard to craft a "whole-of-governments" approach to the world and to China as it so "skillfully" did in the first seven months of the administration, Petraeus said.
"And again, that was very very impressively carried out, but clearly now there will be some damage, in a way and they'll have to work extra hard to do that," he said. "And it will be done, as always, with deeds not just with words. Words will be needed but people will really be watching for the deeds."
The wartime general didn't have a yes or no response to whether the U.S. lost the war in Afghanistan after 20 years.
"Well we certainly didn't achieve the outcome that many of us, if not most of us, perhaps, had hoped for," he said.
......
Gautam
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by kit »

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/14/asia/afg ... index.html
More than $1 billion in aid pledged for Afghanistan as country faces 'most perilous hour'
Helen Regan, September 14, 2021

More than $1 billion in aid has been pledged for Afghanistan to help ease one of the world's "worst humanitarian crises," as millions of people in the country could soon run out of food and the economy is on the verge of collapse, the United Nations said on Monday.
Speaking at a high-level ministers meeting on the crisis in Geneva, UN Secretary General António Guterres said poverty rates in Afghanistan had spiraled since the Taliban's takeover last month, with one in three people not knowing where their next meal was coming from and basic public services not functioning. "The people of Afghanistan need a lifeline. After decades of war, suffering and insecurity, they face perhaps their most perilous hour," Guterres said. The UN had made an emergency appeal for $606 million to meet the most pressing needs in the country, a request that had been "fully met," Guterres said during a news conference.
"Today, we already have clearly more than $ 1 billion of pledges.
Gautam
China is upto its usual tricks of getting the west to pay for the reconstruction etc while it will step in to reap whatever is left ! ..looks like UN like WHO is under the chinese thumb
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

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Taliban deny leader Mullah Abdul Baradar is DEAD - but can only produce an audio recording as 'proof' after wild rumours of gunfight in presidential palace swept Afghanistan
PUBLISHED: 13:13 BST, 13 September 2021 | UPDATED: 13:41 BST, 13 September 2021
The Taliban has been forced to deny that deputy leader Mullah Baradar is dead after wild rumours emerged that he was killed during a gunfight with his political rivals.

The Taliban insisted today that Baradar is in Kandahar province meeting with the group's supreme leader Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada to discuss Afghanistan's future now the US has withdrawn.

But the social media rumour-mill believes he was actually killed in a gun battle in Kabul's presidential palace on Friday that broke out during a meeting with the powerful and ruthless Haqqani family.

The Taliban has so-far produced a handwritten note and an audio recording as evidence that Baradar is alive - which has only served to increase speculation further.

[..]
Taliban deny their deputy prime minister, Mullah Baradar, is dead
September 14, 2021
3:33 PM IST
Last Updated 9 hours ago

Sept 14 (Reuters) - The Taliban have denied that one of their top leaders has been killed in a shootout with rivals, following rumours about internal splits in the movement nearly a month after its lightning victory over the Western-backed government in Kabul.

Sulail Shaheen, a Taliban spokesman, said Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, former head of the Taliban political office who was named deputy prime minister last week, issued a voice message rejecting claims he had been killed or injured in a clash.

"He says it is lies and totally baseless," Shaheen said in a message on Twitter.

The Taliban also released video footage purportedly showing Baradar at meetings in the southern city of Kandahar. Reuters could not immediately verify the footage.

The denials follow days of rumours that supporters of Baradar had clashed with those of Sirajuddin Haqqani, head of the Haqqani network that is based near the border with Pakistan and was blamed for some of the worst suicide attacks of the war.

The rumours follow speculation over possible rivalries between military commanders like Haqqani and leaders from the political office in Doha like Baradar, who led diplomatic efforts to reach a settlement with the United States.

The Taliban have repeatedly denied the speculation over internal divisions.

Baradar, once seen as the likely head of a Taliban government, had not been seen in public for some time and was not part of the ministerial delegation which met Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani in Kabul on Sunday.

The movement's supreme leader, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, has also not been seen in public since the Taliban seized Kabul on Aug. 15, although he issued a public statement when the new government was formed last week.

Speculation over Taliban leaders has been fed by the circumstances surrounding the death of the movement's founder, Mullah Omar, which was only made public in 2015 two years after it happened, setting off bitter recriminations among the leadership.
RKumar

Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by RKumar »

Napak could promise to donate 100b $, can or will they, is the real question. It’s all optics and no facts. So take this figure with bucket of salt ;)
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ldev »

Putin is self isolating after a member of his entourage got Covid so unlikely to travel to Dushanbe this week. There goes Imran Khan's opportunity for his first ever bilateral meeting with Putin. And so far Biden has also not called him since his inauguration!!
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by g.sarkar »

https://tfiglobalnews.com/2021/09/14/no ... ban-nexus/
Northern Alliance 2.0: India, Russia and Iran rush to Tajikistan to crush China-Taliban nexus
Akshay Narang, September 14, 2021

With the Taliban getting debilitated due to severe infighting within its top brass, the extremist group is all set to face the wrath of its biggest enemy – the Northern Alliance 2.0. India, Russia and Iran are rushing to Tajikistan, in what seems like an attempt to resurrect the coalition of anti-Taliban powers in Asia.
India’s External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar is reportedly expected to travel to Tajikistan this week.
What is the Northern Alliance:
The Afghan Northern Alliance was a united military front that was formed in late 1996 after the Islamic Taliban took over Kabul. The United Front was assembled by key leaders of the toppled Islamic State of Afghanistan, particularly president Burhanuddin Rabbani and former Defense Minister Ahmad Shah Massoud. The Northern Alliance fought a defensive war against the Pakistan-backed Taliban government. They received support from Russia, India, Tajikistan, Iran and others. The Northern Alliance could now get revived again as the Taliban is once again in control of Afghanistan and the main sponsors of the resistance group – India, Russia, Tajikistan and Iran, are concerned with the Taliban’s resurgence.
Tajikistan – the emerging headquarters of anti-Taliban activity:
The location of the SCO meeting on Afghanistan, where India, Russia, Tajikistan, and Iran are expected to discuss the prevailing situation in the war-torn country of Afghanistan is crucial.
Tajikistan, which borders Afghanistan, has a special interest in rescuing Afghanistan from the Taliban. Since Afghanistan is home to many Tajiks, who form the second largest ethnic group in Afghanistan next only to the Pashtuns, there is a lot of cultural affinity between the Afghan Tajiks and Tajikistan. The Tajiks are not as radicalized as the Taliban, and in fact, they hate the extremist group due to its Pashtun supremacism.
In order to aid the Tajiks, Dushanbe has been getting actively involved. It recently awarded the country’s highest civilian honour to Ahmad Shah Massoud and former Afghan president Burhanuddin Rabbani. It may be noted that Massoud was known as the Lion of Panjshir and led the strongest resistance against the Taliban from his stronghold in the valley until he was assassinated two days before 9/11.
Moreover, recently there were reports of Tajikistan arming the Northern Resistance Front (NRF) which is fighting against the Taliban from Panjshir Valley. The NRF led by Ahmad Massoud and Amrullah Saleh was said to have received military equipment, weapons, and other supplies from Tajikistan. However, Tajikistan denied these reports.
.....
Gautam
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ldev »

It is remarkable how Pakistan/ISI hijacked the entire Doha process. Mullah Baradar who actually signed the peace agreement with the US is reduced as a Deputy PM and is missing after the rumored gunfight with the Haqqanis. Stankekzhai who was also a pivotal figure in the Doha process and a former Defense Minister in the former Taliban Government is also sidelined. As PM the ISI has installed Mullah Akhund, a puppet with no power base of his own so he is easily controlled. And the Supreme Leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada has not been seen in public ever since the Taliban took over. This is entirely a puppet Government controlled by the ISI. And the article linked below says Pakistan intends to trade with the Taliban in Pakistani rupees!!

Deputy Afghan PM Mullah Baradar ‘Upset’ with Current Face of Taliban Govt
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by vijayk »

ldev wrote:It is remarkable how Pakistan/ISI hijacked the entire Doha process. Mullah Baradar who actually signed the peace agreement with the US is reduced as a Deputy PM and is missing after the rumored gunfight with the Haqqanis. Stankekzhai who was also a pivotal figure in the Doha process and a former Defense Minister in the former Taliban Government is also sidelined. As PM the ISI has installed Mullah Akhund, a puppet with no power base of his own so he is easily controlled. And the Supreme Leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada has not been seen in public ever since the Taliban took over. This is entirely a puppet Government controlled by the ISI. And the article linked below says Pakistan intends to trade with the Taliban in Pakistani rupees!!

Deputy Afghan PM Mullah Baradar ‘Upset’ with Current Face of Taliban Govt
Can they control this process forever? Will there be kaboom backfire?
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Rudradev »

Feasible for Baradar, Stanekzai, Akhundzada to join up with Panjshir NRF along with their followers? If the current Kabul gang is pure Pindi-pasand jackals then a large % of what used to be "Taliban" will now be disgruntled from exclusion.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Anujan »

Taliban is so fearsome that they depose or kill anyone who tries to rule Afghanistan.

Their latest victim is Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who tried to rule Afghanistan but was defeated by brave and persistent guerrilla action by the Taliban.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by bharathp »

ldev wrote:It is remarkable how Pakistan/ISI hijacked the entire Doha process. Mullah Baradar who actually signed the peace agreement with the US is reduced as a Deputy PM and is missing after the rumored gunfight with the Haqqanis. Stankekzhai who was also a pivotal figure in the Doha process and a former Defense Minister in the former Taliban Government is also sidelined. As PM the ISI has installed Mullah Akhund, a puppet with no power base of his own so he is easily controlled. And the Supreme Leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada has not been seen in public ever since the Taliban took over. This is entirely a puppet Government controlled by the ISI. And the article linked below says Pakistan intends to trade with the Taliban in Pakistani rupees!!

Deputy Afghan PM Mullah Baradar ‘Upset’ with Current Face of Taliban Govt
dont fall for the "trade in PKR". neither pak not afg have access to USDs to trade.
also, for afg to trade in PKR, it needs to have PKR in the first place - which means the already beleagured currency will need to be over printed to gift to afg. or Pak will have to buy something from afg in PKR - either ways, it will create a headache to Pak.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ldev »

Rudradev wrote:Feasible for Baradar, Stanekzai, Akhundzada to join up with Panjshir NRF along with their followers? If the current Kabul gang is pure Pindi-pasand jackals then a large % of what used to be "Taliban" will now be disgruntled from exclusion.
Reports are that they are completely disgruntled. I would imagine that before they join up with the NRF there would have to be clashes between the Haqqani Group and the Kandahar Taliban. Some reports are that is what could happen. If however hostilities do break out then there could be an alliance with the NRF. Supposedly the Baradar, Akhundzada, Stanekzai group who were the political group that negotiated in Doha want an inclusive government.

Qatar who with the Baradar, Stanekzai group and gave them residency in Qatar for all these years and funded their office etc. When the Qatari FM visited Kabul, he apparently could not meet with either of them. He had to deal with the new folks in power.
Last edited by ldev on 15 Sep 2021 07:14, edited 2 times in total.
ldev
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ldev »

bharathp wrote: dont fall for the "trade in PKR". neither pak not afg have access to USDs to trade.
also, for afg to trade in PKR, it needs to have PKR in the first place - which means the already beleagured currency will need to be over printed to gift to afg. or Pak will have to buy something from afg in PKR - either ways, it will create a headache to Pak.
Not a question of falling for PKR trade. Rather in the absence of USD in the local market and the freeze on USD assets by the US the only way for the Taliban Government to buy anything from outside is via a PKR arrangement with Pakistan. And Pakistan will maintain Afghanis as a balance i.e. like the India-Iran rupee oil trade. But Pakistan itself is a beggar nation so I don't know how they will be able to sustain this.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Roop »

Cain Marko wrote:
Besides Pak will not allow their airspace to be used for that. Violating their airspace to carry out a strike is an act of war. Do we want that, when no other country is willing to take that risk ?.
Why not? Why not push the envelope a bit and see what happens? What did anybody do post balakote? Nothing. They just accepted the situation. Let's push a bit more, esp if the US is working to this end. Getting access to that airspace can lead to control of it in time. They'll get used to it.
Exactly!! Thank you, CM, for saying exactly what I was thinking. Under the scenario/assumptions that I am working on, (i.e. America operates drones from IAF airbases to provide this so-called "over-the-horizon" (OTH) capability against the Taliban in Afgh) who gives a cr@p what Pakis think, what they "will not allow" etc.? We should go ahead with this (agree to the American OTH request) and make the most of it for the future.

It is in India's vital national interests to prevent China, at any cost, from occupying Bagram airbase or colonising Afgh. That is precisely the goal that China/Pak/Talib are currently working towards. India's grand national strategy should be to thwart and smash that goal, particularly if we have the US working on our side. If that means war with Pak/China, so be it -- war will come, but we will keep China out of Afgh. And if Putin objects to our working with Uncle, too f**cking bad for him!
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Deans »

Roop wrote: Exactly!! Thank you, CM, for saying exactly what I was thinking. Under the scenario/assumptions that I am working on, (i.e. America operates drones from IAF airbases to provide this so-called "over-the-horizon" (OTH) capability against the Taliban in Afgh) who gives a cr@p what Pakis think, what they "will not allow" etc.? We should go ahead with this (agree to the American OTH request) and make the most of it for the future.
Drones based in India wont have the range to get to Afghanistan and loiter there - nor will Pak allow use of their air space. Its more feasible to have joint intel sharing and for India to piggyback on a base the US or Russia may set up in the Stans.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Deans »

ldev wrote:
bharathp wrote: dont fall for the "trade in PKR". neither pak not afg have access to USDs to trade.
also, for afg to trade in PKR, it needs to have PKR in the first place - which means the already beleagured currency will need to be over printed to gift to afg. or Pak will have to buy something from afg in PKR - either ways, it will create a headache to Pak.
Not a question of falling for PKR trade. Rather in the absence of USD in the local market and the freeze on USD assets by the US the only way for the Taliban Government to buy anything from outside is via a PKR arrangement with Pakistan. And Pakistan will maintain Afghanis as a balance i.e. like the India-Iran rupee oil trade. But Pakistan itself is a beggar nation so I don't know how they will be able to sustain this.
There are 3 parts to Pak-Afghan `trade'.
1. Export of drugs from Afg to Pak. Money made by local Taliban warlords and Pak generals. This can't stop. In fact it will increase, as Taliban need more hard currency.
2. Smuggling of consumer goods, imported into Afg, from the UAE, at 0% duty, into Pak, (or Iran) which have high tariffs. Goods include Electronics,
Pharma, Booze, Cigarettes. Same set of people as (1) make money.
3. Hafta charged by Pak to enable goods to transit into Afghanistan + Minor exports from Pak to Afg.
Pak earnings through this route will reduce, as US (the biggest customer) has pulled out.

Earnings from 1 & 2 are held offshore, with reps of Afghan warlords operating out of UAE.
Last edited by Deans on 15 Sep 2021 18:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ldev »

Deans wrote:
Roop wrote: Exactly!! Thank you, CM, for saying exactly what I was thinking. Under the scenario/assumptions that I am working on, (i.e. America operates drones from IAF airbases to provide this so-called "over-the-horizon" (OTH) capability against the Taliban in Afgh) who gives a cr@p what Pakis think, what they "will not allow" etc.? We should go ahead with this (agree to the American OTH request) and make the most of it for the future.
Drones based in India wont have the range to get to Afghanistan and loiter there - nor will Pak allow use of their air space. Its more feasible to have joint intel sharing and for India to piggyback on a base the US or Russia may set up in the Stans.
There was some vague chatter a few weeks ago about the use of one IAF base....no idea if it was taken further. The MQ-9B ER has it's loitering time increased from 27 hours to 40 hours. The range for the regular (27 hour) version is 1850 km. I could not find any published range figures for the ER version but a straight extrapolation based on the increase in loiter time would indicate at least 2500 km to 2600 km. Kabul in a straight line from this alleged IAF base is ~650 km, Mazari Sharif is ~900 km and so is Kandahar. So if Pakistan allows or is coerced into the use of it's airspace then it is a doable operation.
Last edited by ldev on 15 Sep 2021 10:18, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ldev »

Deans wrote:There are 3 parts to Pak-Afghan `trade'.
1. Export of drugs from Afg to Pak. Money made by local Taliban warlords and Pak generals. This can't stop, In fact it will increase and Taliban need more hard currency.
2. Smuggling of consumer goods, imported into Afg from the UAE at 0% duty, into Pak, (or Iran) which have high tariffs. Goods include Electronics,
Pharma, Booze, Cigarettes. Same set of people as (1) make money.
3. Hafta charged by Pak to enable goods to transit into Afghanistan + Minor exports from Pak to Afg.
Pak earnings through this route will reduce, as US (the biggest customer) has pulled out.

Earnings from 1 & 2 are held offshore, with reps of Afghan warlords operating out of UAE.
This could be for import of basic items like grain, sugar, flour, cooking oil etc. into Afghanistan. Consumer goods such as those you described will continue with their existing channels from the UAE etc.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by vimal »

India should help here by setting up a PKR printing machine in Afghanistan.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by williams »

ldev wrote:
Deans wrote:
Drones based in India wont have the range to get to Afghanistan and loiter there - nor will Pak allow use of their air space. Its more feasible to have joint intel sharing and for India to piggyback on a base the US or Russia may set up in the Stans.
There was some vague chatter a few weeks ago about the use of one IAF base....no idea if it was taken further. The MQ-9B ER has it's loitering time increased from 27 hours to 40 hours. The range for the regular (27 hour) version is 1850 km. I could not find any published range figures for the ER version but a straight extrapolation based on the increase in loiter time would indicate at least 2500 km to 2600 km. Kabul in a straight line from this alleged IAF base is ~650 km, Mazari Sharif is ~900 km and so is Kandahar. So if Pakistan allows or is coerced into the use of it's airspace then it is a doable operation.
Well I don't think India will allow US to operate a base in Indian territory unless there is a real tangible benefit like getting us PoK or helping us denuke the Pakis. Things will simply escalate: Think of this scenario US drones violates Paki airspace; Paki's now got the excuse to station Chinese SAMs; Chinese SAM hits US drone; Now there is a shooting war between US and China in Indian territory. So you want India to take collateral damage for simply allowing US to monitor some goat herding terrorist in two basket case countries. No thanks. we are more than capable of dealing with any terrorists thread that emanates from Afghanistan. This is not the 90s.
kit
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by kit »

ldev wrote:
Rudradev wrote:
Qatar who with the Baradar, Stanekzai group and gave them residency in Qatar for all these years and funded their office etc. When the Qatari FM visited Kabul, he apparently could not meet with either of them. He had to deal with the new folks in power.
Apparently the ISI saw to it that its protégé remains the only one standing..removing all possible opposition early on ..the best way..by killing them. I see some people bend on "talking" "influencing" these highly radicalised haqqanis..never going to happen..however much it seems that way.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by surinder »

Interesting article:

https://www.khaama.com/failure-of-the-a ... ict-87976/

The Unfinished Business of The Durand Line and Taliban

The main crux of Pakistan’s actions in Afghanistan and hence of Afghanistan’s meddling in the tribal areas of Pakistan has been the Durrand Line issue. Given its experiences with the East Pakistan ethnic war that led to the establishment of Bangladesh, Pakistan’s worst fear is another ethnicity-driven conflict that leads to more partition. Pakistan does not want nor trust a nationalist establishment next door, which can ignite a Pashtun or Baluch insurgency at home. Hence, Pakistan sees the Afghan Taliban as a more friendly regime compared to a nationalist Afghan one. Pakistan is happy with a proxy neighbor that worries less about borders and more about subjective Shariah implementation and one which will make it easier to control the long porous border.

...

What Can a Desperate Afghan State Do Against Pakistan?

As Badal “revenge,” Afghanistan can guarantee Mutually Assured Terrorism. Afghanistan, through its long historic networks in the tribal lands, can easily turn to support guerilla and insurgents’ movements to destabilize the Pakistani state and society. ...
Cyrano
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Cyrano »

Maj Gen G D Bakshi on the latest developments :
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by rsingh »

williams wrote:
ldev wrote:
There was some vague chatter a few weeks ago about the use of one IAF base....no idea if it was taken further. The MQ-9B ER has it's loitering time increased from 27 hours to 40 hours. The range for the regular (27 hour) version is 1850 km. I could not find any published range figures for the ER version but a straight extrapolation based on the increase in loiter time would indicate at least 2500 km to 2600 km. Kabul in a straight line from this alleged IAF base is ~650 km, Mazari Sharif is ~900 km and so is Kandahar. So if Pakistan allows or is coerced into the use of it's airspace then it is a doable operation.
Well I don't think India will allow US to operate a base in Indian territory unless there is a real tangible benefit like getting us PoK or helping us denuke the Pakis. Things will simply escalate: Think of this scenario US drones violates Paki airspace; Paki's now got the excuse to station Chinese SAMs; Chinese SAM hits US drone; Now there is a shooting war between US and China in Indian territory. So you want India to take collateral damage for simply allowing US to monitor some goat herding terrorist in two basket case countries. No thanks. we are more than capable of dealing with any terrorists thread that emanates from Afghanistan. This is not the 90s.
If US wants, there is no such thing as Pakistani air space. Simple as that.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Pratyush »

Under this Taliban I will not be surprised if the TSP is the new colonial power in Afghanistan.

Expecting that the Taliban will have unfriendly relationship with TSP is not really going to work.

Regardless of who is in power. TSP over the last 20 years will have through selective targeted killings will have eliminated any potential Taliban leadership that would be thinking of charting an independent course for the country.

So whoever is alive in the top echelons of Taliban is someone who is going to be loyal to Pakistan. No questions about that.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by yensoy »

^^^^ Yeah, just like the LTTE was loyal to India. And the LTTE eliminated any potential competitors through selective targeted killings.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Pratyush »

yensoy wrote:^^^^ Yeah, just like the LTTE was loyal to India. And the LTTE eliminated any potential competitors through selective targeted killings.
A slight correction. If the Indian government had provided shelter to LTTE against US and was also in an alliance with the US to control LTTE.

Where Indian interests were to control post war Lanka. Then in order to exert control over LTTE. India will share selective information with US in order to eliminate the LTTE having more independent minded thought process.

So that when the inevitable happens, India is in control over Lanka through LTTE proxies. The LTTE strain with dreams of independence and Elam has been wiped out by US in it's fight with LTTE.

Not to say that independent thought cannot arise in the future generations. But given control over the current generation. The future generations can be shaped in compliance.

It's quite brilliant.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by anupmisra »

This is interesting. Tellibunnies are about to test pakhanis on their reliability and trustworthiness or else!

Afghanistan: Women's youth soccer team escapes to Pakistan
Female players from Afghanistan's junior national soccer team have crossed the border into Pakistan.
Officials said the group, totalling 115 people, will travel from Peshawar to the eastern city of Lahore, where they will be housed at the Pakistani Football Federation's headquarters.
After the fall of Kabul players were warned by the national team's former captain, Khalida Popal, to delete pictures of themselves playing on social media and to burn their kits to protect themselves from potential reprisals from the new regime.
Women were barred from participating in sports during the Taliban's last spell in power from 1996-2001.
Lets see how the pakis get out of this hole they just dug for themselves.

Woke Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58571183
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Manish_P »

Have they formally sought asylum in Pak? If not, Pak can simply send them back saying that they are sending back the illegal immigrants as responsible neighbors and requesting the Talibs, in good faith, not to harm them.

Either way the Pakis come out as responsible, law abiding moderates.

Unless of course the bunnies kill the women (which seems unlikely given how media savvy they are now)

Pity about the women though... they wouldn't have liked to go to Iran. So they thought of taking their chance with Bakistan, despite knowing that the taliban is Pakistan.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by anupmisra »

Manish_P wrote:Pity about the women though... they wouldn't have liked to go to Iran. So they thought of taking their chance with Bakistan, despite knowing that the taliban is Pakistan.
They asked to be moved to LaWhore. Maybe India is their next port of stop?
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Manish_P »

Yes. India would have been near the top preference (even before the US and UK perhaps).

However like the old hindi phillums of yore, the damsels have fallen into the trap of the village villians city-slicker cousin - who will either send them back or keep them in custody. Don't see any Herrow on the horizon as such, rushing to their rescue...
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by SandeepA »

Lets not go overboard with refugees. The last time Af refugees fled to Pak we know what they made of them.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Bart S »

anupmisra wrote:
Lets see how the pakis get out of this hole they just dug for themselves.

Woke Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58571183
Or the whole thing could have been orchestrated by the Pakis to show themselves in a good light and curry favour with the western wokes.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Cain Marko »

rsingh wrote:
williams wrote:
Well I don't think India will allow US to operate a base in Indian territory unless there is a real tangible benefit like getting us PoK or helping us denuke the Pakis. Things will simply escalate: Think of this scenario US drones violates Paki airspace; Paki's now got the excuse to station Chinese SAMs; Chinese SAM hits US drone; Now there is a shooting war between US and China in Indian territory. ....
If US wants, there is no such thing as Pakistani air space. Simple as that.
Not just that. I simply don't see tsp objecting. Where was their objection when US drones were based within tsp itself?

As though anyone needs an noc from tap.
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