Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

krithivas · Post by **krithivas** » 08 Sep 2021 21:18

Title: The Taliban's Ideology Has Surprising Roots In British-Ruled India
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/08/10347545 ... slam-india
NPR producer Sushmita Pathak contributed to this story.

Posting before I have had a full review.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Sep 2021 21:49

Dilbu wrote:Unkil has clearly sided with TSP and China and have implemented their strategy in Afghanistan as part of its cut and run policy. They deliberately kept every one guessing about the assessment on Taliban's pace of advance on Kabul while simultaneously rendering ANA ineffective on the ground. This has left India, Russia and Iran in a spot of bother. TSP-Unkil made sure Talibunnies have secured the borders against the formation of Northern Alliance 2.0 before rapidly moving to capture power. Unkil has clearly thrown India under the bus and GoI, as usual, was pressured into inaction against TSP on LoC. Now there appears to be a late realisation in Moscow and New Delhi about the lost opportunities and the need to work together to identify the way forward. Hope this results in some solid action on the ground and not just kadi ninda through joint statements.

Dilbu thanks for diligently posting Afghan news.
A few remarks.
Even in 1996 Taliban raced across the highways built in the earlier periods to overcome the inhospitable terrain in Afghanistan.
Secondly, ANA was built and trained as a counter-insurgency force in other words it is a military CRPF. They are not trained to stand and fight like a regular army nor equipped.
Third ANA also had the old Mughal problem of mansabdari system where close to half the soldiers were ghosts to derive benefits. Its not corruption but exigencies of the place.
Fourthly, Even WH was surprised for they believed the 300K numbers for ANA and thought the US military trained them to fight.
Most of the equipment abandoned was by the US military for the ANA was never issued such weapons.

Past is past as Bin Powell said. Time to see what happens in the future.
We can hope that the 20 years of freedom have rubbed off on the non-Pashtuns and the moderate Durranis to build an alliance.
One positive is US is out of Af-Pak which gives freedom to act for India.
KSA led Sunnis are not favoring the Taliban.
Both Turkey and Iran realize the end result is they will become conduits for drug trafficking and worse.
Only Qatar(erstwhile Kharjites) and Pakis are happy.

You are perceptive about Moscow's realization. They were busy kowtowing to Emperor Xi and forgot Great Game is still going on.
Lets see.
Keep posting your thoughts.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Sep 2021 21:50

krithivas wrote:Title: The Taliban's Ideology Has Surprising Roots In British-Ruled India
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/08/10347545 ... slam-india
NPR producer Sushmita Pathak contributed to this story.

Posting before I have had a full review.

A good example of Gungadin NRIs transferring the blame to India!!!

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 08 Sep 2021 22:11

Dilbu wrote:Unkil has clearly sided with TSP and China and have implemented their strategy in Afghanistan as part of its cut and run policy. They deliberately kept every one guessing about the assessment on Taliban's pace of advance on Kabul while simultaneously rendering ANA ineffective on the ground. This has left India, Russia and Iran in a spot of bother. TSP-Unkil made sure Talibunnies have secured the borders against the formation of Northern Alliance 2.0 before rapidly moving to capture power. Unkil has clearly thrown India under the bus and GoI, as usual, was pressured into inaction against TSP on LoC. Now there appears to be a late realisation in Moscow and New Delhi about the lost opportunities and the need to work together to identify the way forward. Hope this results in some solid action on the ground and not just kadi ninda through joint statements.

Ironically the MI6 chief, the Russian NSA and the CIA chief are all in Delhi this week at the same time ! I don't think there is any indication of a joint meeting at this time but they are all meeting the Indian security chiefs separately.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 08 Sep 2021 22:31

shyamd wrote:Intel assessment on Afghanistan

- there is a coalition of countries with shared interests (US, UK, India, Russia, central Asian states and China) with respect to terror emanating from Afghanistan that are cooperating.
- meetings taking place more regularly.

- inclusive Govt was always going to be a challenge for the taleban. Lot of intel effort was put in to get the Ghani Govt (and previous Govs) to be inclusive… so ppl were always aware that Taleban will struggle to do this.
- intel guys are very clear that this is a blow to ops… there is no substitute to being on the ground

Delhi is viewing the current situation as a national security crisis.

TSPA are thrilled and celebrating with current situation. Lots of boasting in the region.
I’m told ordinary folks are fearful… many are moving family to Peshawar/TSP or elsewhere. General brain drain.

Couple of points to add. TSPA is shifting resources to Indo-TSP border as well.

The major concern is the economic situation as aid runs out... Taleban will be forced to increase drug production + be at the mercy of financial sponsors... India will face some of the issues.

MEA thinks we should continue infra assistance after 3 months to change Taleban policy....

West is focused on cyber & drones strikes for now.

nam · Post by **nam** » 08 Sep 2021 22:38

My view is that MI6 & CIA chiefs are here to ask us not to cause problems using Tajikistan. They are expecting a reaction from us, given the gloating by Pak and the effects of a "win" by ISI & it's cronies.

The Russians might be here for similar reason, however they are probably confused on what US/UK are up. Given the ease at which the bunnies capture power and the talk of "country boys". Not to mention Pak not even being punished despite the shame US went through..

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 08 Sep 2021 22:48

Assuming the Taliban Govt announced actually assumes duties, how will they function? Income taxes? Corporate taxes? VAT? Import / Export duties? Royalties from leasing mining, spectrum ? All these have no mechanisms to get collected and even if they were, don't add up to a fraction of what Afghanistan needs to remain where it is.

No war lord will pour his legal "passage" money into Govt coffers, no drug lord will put his earnings into Govt budget.

So apart from begging and getting aid funding from outside, Afghan Govt has no way of functioning.

Indian Govt can play smart and dance with the devil à la Shivaji. Provide food aid and namak from our PDS FCI surplus stocks which will soon rot anyway, with Indian flag and Aum logo. Provide e-learning via IT platforms to somewhat mitigate madrassa effect. No infra assistance in $$$ coz no one knows where it will go. No deployment of engineers coz their safety cannot be guaranteed and they can be held to ransom.

Anything more we need to wait and see how things play out.

Kedar · Post by **Kedar** » 08 Sep 2021 22:52

ramana wrote:
krithivas wrote:Title: The Taliban's Ideology Has Surprising Roots In British-Ruled India
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/08/10347545 ... slam-india
NPR producer Sushmita Pathak contributed to this story.

Posting before I have had a full review.

A good example of Gungadin NRIs transferring the blame to India!!!

That was my very first impression even before I followed the link and more so after reading the column. This is not the first time such an attempt was made nor it will be the last. I did not know about this guy, Charles Allen, until I read his obituary in The Guardian. Another one of those know it all gora Indologist who seemed to know more about the natives than the natives themselves. Charles Allen obituary I have posted some comments on him. I followed the link to his book review by Aimee Shalan, Ian Pindar and John Dugdale on his book God's Terrorists. Holy war This is what they get from the book

After the attacks of 9/11 he wrote God’s Terrorists: The Wahhabi Cult and the Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad (2006), which described the links between Saudi-sponsored fundamentalism today and past Islamist insurgencies in the subcontinent. The locations of camps in northern Pakistan where Osama bin Laden’s fighters and Kashmiri militants trained were the same as those of Islamist training camps in the late-19th century.

Fortunately, National Propaganda Radio (NPR) does not have as much clout or funding as Bismillah Broadcasting Corporation but it is another anti-India anti-Hindu rag at taxpayer expense.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 08 Sep 2021 23:20

shyamd wrote:The major concern is the economic situation as aid runs out... Taleban will be forced to increase drug production + be at the mercy of financial sponsors... India will face some of the issues.

This is an opportunity for pharma industry to get into drug production that is currently illegal in India, but legal (or soon to be legal) in the West. Safety of personnel will be a big issue though. Although if the Afghan government can assure safety, drug tourism can be a very large industry.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 08 Sep 2021 23:59

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/tali ... 210908.htm
China endorses new Taliban govt; announces $31 million aid
K J M Varma, September 08, 2021
China on Wednesday announced $31 million as aid to Afghanistan, its first after the Taliban seized power in Kabul, as it backed the Afghan militant group's interim government, saying it is a 'necessary step' to restore order and 'end anarchy'.
Taking part in the first meeting of Foreign Ministers of the neighbouring countries on Afghanistan, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China will provide Afghanistan with 200 million yuan ($31 million) worth of grains, winter supplies, vaccines and medicines as per its requirements, official media in Beijing reported.
The meeting convened by Pakistan was also attended by foreign ministers from Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, all of them the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan.
Russia was conspicuously absent at the meeting hosted by Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi.
Wang said that China will provide Afghanistan with 200 million yuan ($31 million) worth of grains, winter supplies, vaccines and medicines as per the needs of its people, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.
Wang said China has decided to donate 3 million vaccine doses to the Afghan people in the first batch. China is also ready to provide more anti-epidemic and emergency materials to Afghanistan under the China-South Asian Countries Emergency Supplies Reserves.
Wang said China would work with countries in the region to help Afghanistan rebuild its economy and society, as well as fight terrorist groups and the illegal drug trade.
.....
Gautam
$31 million is not enough to replace US aid. The war lords have been spoiled for two decades and will demand more.

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 09 Sep 2021 00:10

^ It is an insult to Napaki and cavemen, I don't know how they can swallow this bitter pill.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 09 Sep 2021 01:04

Good news. Annual budgets will be simpler to put together.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 09 Sep 2021 01:05

Russian NSA and CIA director were both in India on the same day. A retired CIA South Asia Director and Russian Ambassador both gave interviews to Indian newspapers with Mea Culpas about the Doha process. CIA explicitly, Russia implicitly by admitting to potential of terror spread to Russia via CA.

So something major is cooking. My guess:

America badly needs “over the horizon” capability to monitor developments if AfPak. Tajikistan bases can be an excellent launching pad, and India an operator acceptable to both US and Russia. Not to mention a long standing friend of Tajiks and acceptable to Iran under current circumstances.

Afghanistan may be uncontrollable from within, but Pak has just shown the world how to do so from outside. This is more than reviving intel agency cooperation a la Tibet resistance. It is about a long term project to stay involved in the region despite obstacles from China-Pak.

India’s moment in the Great Game has arrived.

kit · Post by **kit** » 09 Sep 2021 01:37

Why put in any aid to Afghanistan ? How does stability in Afghanistan help India , indeed wont instability there keep the Porkis busy

All said and done i would take "stability in AF" as enthused by western countries with a big dose of salt

Once that happens the focus of terror would spread outside Afghanistan. Afghanistan must be kept unstable by whatever means necessary. There is no other way around it. The only aim of western countries is to prevent refugees from spreading over but thats their problem.

India must not provide any aid whatsoever until the Tali s are out of power , if that happens at all.

A stable Afghanistan will embolden the Pakis and Talis to spread their brand throughout the region and focus on areas like kashmir., this must be avoided at any cost.

kit · Post by **kit** » 09 Sep 2021 01:40

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.rediff.com/news/report/tali ... 210908.htm
China endorses new Taliban govt; announces $31 million aid
K J M Varma, September 08, 2021

$31 million is not enough to replace US aid. The war lords have been spoiled for two decades and will demand more.

All that money is not free cash to spend on whatever they want, but just some surplus goods at some warehouses that are more likely to be thrown away by the chinks

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 09 Sep 2021 02:26

ramana wrote:
krithivas wrote:Title: The Taliban's Ideology Has Surprising Roots In British-Ruled India
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/08/10347545 ... slam-india
NPR producer Sushmita Pathak contributed to this story.

Posting before I have had a full review.

A good example of Gungadin NRIs transferring the blame to India!!!

But are they wrong? Talibunnies are Deobandies, no?

They started under British India, so Brits bear the main blame.

If independent India didn’t smash Deoband and Deobandism, then it bears some blame, though not as much as Brits.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 09 Sep 2021 02:49

Bad bD yendu are talking about Akhanda Bhartiya

Bakistan is ignored. It is all about Mahabharta.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 09 Sep 2021 02:53

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.rediff.com/news/report/tali ... 210908.htm
China endorses new Taliban govt; announces $31 million aid
K J M Varma, September 08, 2021

$31 million is not enough to replace US aid. The war lords have been spoiled for two decades and will demand more.

By one estimate, AFG spent $1.5-$1.8 billion on energy imports (oil, gas, and electricity) in 2019. With that kind of aid, it will not take too long for AFG to import katora from its bhooga nanga neighbour. Most importantly it will not be easy to keep the entire economy going without a lot of $$, even with that super fast cabinet appointments.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 09 Sep 2021 03:01

Y I Patel wrote:Russian NSA and CIA director were both in India on the same day. A retired CIA South Asia Director and Russian Ambassador both gave interviews to Indian newspapers with Mea Culpas about the Doha process. CIA explicitly, Russia implicitly by admitting to potential of terror spread to Russia via CA.

So something major is cooking. My guess:

America badly needs “over the horizon” capability to monitor developments if AfPak. Tajikistan bases can be an excellent launching pad, and India an operator acceptable to both US and Russia. Not to mention a long standing friend of Tajiks and acceptable to Iran under current circumstances.

Afghanistan may be uncontrollable from within, but Pak has just shown the world how to do so from outside. This is more than reviving intel agency cooperation a la Tibet resistance. It is about a long term project to stay involved in the region despite obstacles from China-Pak.

India’s moment in the Great Game has arrived.

the taliban have fired the first warning shot across the paki bows. The pakis will be hard pressed to answer

pakjabis just may have landed themselves in another mess. taliban has said no to recognizing the Durand Line.

It also wants the paki made fence on the line to be removed.

Effectively, the taliban does not recognize the geographical sovereignty of pakistan and rejects the notion that the Durand line is the border.

So the baluch and the pasthun will now ratchet up their demand for a separate homeland, as well as, cries of aazadi, and hopefully, it will be the "djinnah wali aazadi"

@htTweets · 7 Sep
Tension between #Taliban and Pakistan over border? ISI chief's Durand Line talks with new Afghan rulers

ISI chief Hameed was the first foreign official from #Pakistan to visit #Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 09 Sep 2021 03:28

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/03/th ... ghanistan/
The CIA Secretly Evacuated Most of Its Spies From Afghanistan
The agency has a long history of extracting people from danger zones.
Emma Loop, September 3, 2021
The CIA managed to get most of its Afghan informants and spies out of the country ahead of the U.S. pullout this week, according to two sources familiar with the agency’s operations, even as the State Department admitted that the majority of Afghans who worked for the United States over the past two decades—interpreters and others—were left behind.
“We got everybody, more or less, out. It’s thousands of people,” including family members of the spies, a Congressional official told Foreign Policy, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. “They are the ones the Taliban could have identified.”
Another source familiar with the CIA’s evacuation efforts said the agency’s Special Activities Center, which is staffed in part by elite paramilitary forces and runs covert operations, took part in the evacuation. The operations took place across the country, the source said—not just around the Afghan capital of Kabul, where many thousands of people desperate to flee the country crowded the airport perimeter.
“My understanding is they got all of their people out,” said the source, who also requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
Another source familiar with the CIA’s evacuation efforts said the agency’s Special Activities Center, which is staffed in part by elite paramilitary forces and runs covert operations, took part in the evacuation. The operations took place across the country, the source said—not just around the Afghan capital of Kabul, where many thousands of people desperate to flee the country crowded the airport perimeter.
“My understanding is they got all of their people out,” said the source, who also requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
......
Gautam
If all spooks are home, who is doing the spying? Perhaps CIA is buying intelligence from the best agency in the World-- ISI.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 09 Sep 2021 03:50

ISI chief Hameed was the first foreign official from #Pakistan to visit #Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover

Paki TV channels are lamenting that no one wanted to meet with Hameed when he landed in Kabul.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 09 Sep 2021 03:52

India has definitely been thrown under the bus by US. Actually, most of US allies were in the dark itself. I hope India doesn't listen to these visiting chiefs and take next course of action giving good thought.

It will be real tightrope walk. Taliban and its terrorist mum should be kept on toes. So, supporting opposition is a given. Keeping US and Russia happy should also be happening.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 09 Sep 2021 03:54

Cyrano wrote:
ISI chief Hameed was the first foreign official from #Pakistan to visit #Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover
Paki TV channels are lamenting that no one wanted to meet with Hameed when he landed in Kabul.

I doubt that. Pak troops were helping taliban also haqqani group has got prominent rolein government. So hammed got what he came for. It seems like misinformation campaign.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 09 Sep 2021 04:02

chanakyaa wrote:
g.sarkar wrote:https://www.rediff.com/news/report/tali ... 210908.htm
China endorses new Taliban govt; announces $31 million aid
K J M Varma, September 08, 2021

$31 million is not enough to replace US aid. The war lords have been spoiled for two decades and will demand more.
By one estimate, AFG spent $1.5-$1.8 billion on energy imports (oil, gas, and electricity) in 2019. With that kind of aid, it will not take too long for AFG to import katora from its bhooga nanga neighbour. Most importantly it will not be easy to keep the entire economy going without a lot of $$, even with that super fast cabinet appointments.

When the aid starts flowing in from western governments, you can know for sure, we have to face this ourselves.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Sep 2021 04:05

Amber the British guy came last week per Tribune, Chandigarh

Kedar copyright those descriptions of NPR and BBC.

Vinod, Biden through even America under the bus not to mention UK.
Blair called him imbecile.
Next step is cretin.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Sep 2021 04:06

Ahmedinejad warns Pakistan on WION
Palkisu is doing great job.

https://twitter.com/SAMRIReports/status ... 21603?s=19

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Sep 2021 04:07

China offering $31M is peanut shell.
So let's see.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Sep 2021 04:08

Yogi, US role is over. We should think from Indian perspective only.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 09 Sep 2021 04:10

The only country that can run a peaceful AFG is India. The world powers will come to that realization slowly. We have time to fix ourselves first - CAA/voter roll etc. - before that.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Sep 2021 04:10

Gautam That spooks brought home could be turf war with US Army.

So take with bucket of salt.
You can't spend $1T over 20 years without some spooks.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Sep 2021 04:12

Ok Will make a big statement.
Afghanistan is the way to cleave Russia from China grip.
Great Game is still there.
Quad is dead.
Only matter of time US exits East Asia.
They are in a rush to exit from globalist cops burden.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 09 Sep 2021 04:50

If the US stops being globocop, their MIC will shrivel, dollar will fall, QE karma will come calling, markets will tank, housing crisis will hit the roof, small investors & middle class reeling from covid will get wiped out.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 09 Sep 2021 05:32

ramana wrote:Yogi, US role is over. We should think from Indian perspective only.

Loud message coming from ORF (Samewr Saran) and Sushant Sareen: if US wants India’s continued help against China in the IndiPacific, then US must help India confront China-Pak in Afg and CA. Either US is a partner everywhere, or it will not be a partner anywhere. So no longer about India helping or supporting US. Equal partnership or nothing.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 09 Sep 2021 05:38

Us needs war to sustain its arms industry. And this time it would like that we pay for it. Who will pay EU,india Arabs so let's count till next war

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 09 Sep 2021 05:49

ramana wrote:Amber the British guy came last week per Tribune, Chandigarh

Kedar copyright those descriptions of NPR and BBC.

Vinod, Biden through even America under the bus not to mention UK.
Blair called him imbecile.
Next step is cretin.

Ramanaji, you are right, Richard Moore the head of MI6 was in Delhi last week, this week it is the turn of Russian Security Council Chief Nikolai Patrushev and the CIA chief Bill Burns both are in Delhi at the same time, the CIA chief will be flying to Islamabad next.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 09 Sep 2021 05:53

Y I Patel wrote:
ramana wrote:Yogi, US role is over. We should think from Indian perspective only.

Loud message coming from ORF (Samewr Saran) and Sushant Sareen: if US wants India’s continued help against China in the IndiPacific, then US must help India confront China-Pak in Afg and CA. Either US is a partner everywhere, or it will not be a partner anywhere. So no longer about India helping or supporting US. Equal partnership or nothing.

There was an interesting article a week or so ago in the South China Morning Post of all places about the Afghanistan debacle. It recounted a story by a retired Indian diplomat who used to interact with the US on Afghanistan issues in the early 2000s, shortly after the US entered Afghanistan. Whenever he advised the US that to truly defeat the Taliban you have to begin in Pakistan, according to him the US response was, "the Indians are whining again". I guess it has turned a full circle now with the CIA Director in Delhi probably asking for ground intelligence, the US has pulled out all it's assets, I am sure India still has sources on ground in Afghanistan. Plus I am sure that Ayni is on the cards.

Talking of the US helping India vs China-Pak in Afghanistan and CA, taking on POK from the east and the Wakkhan Corridor from Tajikstan will sever the link between China and Pakistan. It will benefit both India and the US, by cutting off Chinese communications with Pakistan for India and by stopping/ containing Chinese expansion towards the Gulf for the US.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 09 Sep 2021 05:58

ramana wrote:Ok Will make a big statement.
Afghanistan is the way to cleave Russia from China grip.
Great Game is still there.
Quad is dead.
Only matter of time US exits East Asia.
They are in a rush to exit from globalist cops burden.

US will never leave Japan and South Korea because without them the US dollar is dead. Even George Soros, the ultimate globalist has seen the light, now cautions against investing in China. Soros is a globalist, Xi remained a nationalist and fooled Soros. Also the US will make up with Russia after Putin is gone/retires/steps down.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 09 Sep 2021 06:43

Gen Bakshi in his inemitable style. Note the pakis comment bombing from pure donkey farms below the video !

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 09 Sep 2021 06:48

ldev wrote:
Talking of the US helping India vs China-Pak in Afghanistan and CA, taking on POK from the east and the Wakkhan Corridor from Tajikstan will sever the link between China and Pakistan. It will benefit both India and the US, by cutting off Chinese communications with Pakistan for India and by stopping/ containing Chinese expansion towards the Gulf for the US.

Yes. This is the first time I am getting a sense here in US that they realize just how much Pakistan has screwed them. Pakis can no longer count on US gullibility to shelter behind, Gilgit-Baltistan are fair game now.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 09 Sep 2021 07:16

Afghanistan is a massive, unprecedented debacle for the US. But the Doha process led to the Afg government being badly undermined and resulted in the collapse of the army. Russia had a big role in that process in supporting the Taliban, and the final outcome is a stinging setback to Russia as well. India has not taken kindly to being excluded and at Russia's flirtation with Pakistan. India's ambassador stating that very diplomatically but in no uncertain terms:

" Neither the Doha talks nor the Troika Plus talks have yielded the right results... I think one lesson is that it is better that India and Russia work together with respect to Afghanistan."

So the message to Russia is a harsh one as well. Cooperate, or lose out on the one able and reliable partner in the region.